STANDARD PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX TEMPLATE

(Current) Project Phase Define

Project (Estimated) Total Installed Cost (CAPEX) (NB- Use P50 Figures Where Available) 375 Mil USD

Project FID (MM-YYYY) Sep-14 Project End (E.g. RFSU, FOD, PIT, etc) (MM-YYYY) Jan-18

Project (Estimated ) Execution Duration (NB- Use P50 Figures Where Available) 40 Mths

NOTE : Risks should be assessed on 100% project basis, not Shell share
PROBABILITY
CONSEQUENCES TO PROJECT OBJECTIVES 0-5% 5-20% 20-50% 50-80% 80-100%

Production /
Cost / Benefit1 Schedule2 Ultimate Recovery HSSE Quality Legal Financing Relationships 1 (VL) 2 (L) 3 (M) 4 (H) 5 (VH)
Availability 3

Financing terms not

Major legal exposure
> 4 Mths > 10 million barrels of acceptable. Credit
> 19 USD Mil Substantial or total Non-conformance of with potential to result Breakdown in high-
5 (VH)
(>5% of Capex)
(>10% of Execution
loss of operation
oil equivalent
critical systems in major impact on the
standing of parties
level relationships CRITICAL
Schedule) involved not
company
acceptable

Significant legal Debt terms impact

2.4 - 4 Mths 5 - 10 million barrels of Non-conformance of exposure present with Group targets. Credit
11 - 19 USD Mil Partial or temporary Significant problems in
4 (H)
(3 - 5% of Capex)
(6 - 10% of Execution
loss of operation
oil equivalent major functional potential material standing parties
high-level relationships SEVERE
Schedule) systems impact on the involved require
company guarantees

Debt terms have minor

IMPACT

Use Standard Risk Differences in high-

0.8 - 2.4 Mths Partial shut down of 2 - 5 million barrels of Gaps in knowledge impact on Group
4 - 11 USD Mil Assessment Matrix for Non-conformance of level relationships or
3 (M)
(1 - 3% of Capex)
(2 - 6% of Execution operation (can be oil equivalent
HSSE minor systems
and/or controls over targets. Credit
breakdown of minor MATERIAL
Schedule) restarted) minor aspects of law standing parties
level relationships
involved questionable

Significant differences
0.4 - 0.8 Mths 1 - 2 million barrels of Reasonable Minor credit, fund
2 - 4 USD Mil Sufficiently meeting with minor level
2 (L)
(0.5 - 1% of Capex)
(1 - 2% of Execution Brief disruption oil equivalent
the specification
knowledge - intention availability and/or debt
relationships which SMALL
Schedule) to be legally correct terms issues.
can be overcome

Minor credit, fund

< 0.4 Mths < 1 million barrels of oil Confident in
< 2 USD Mil No disruption to Substantially meeting availability and/or debt Mutually supportive
1 (VL) (<1% of Execution equivalent knowledge of law no
(< 0.5% of Capex) operation the specification terms issues (normal with minor differences
Schedule) dispute likely
work)

Unit Of Measure OIL in boe

NOTES ON CAPS :
1 The >5% for CAPEX is "Capped" at limit of >250 Mil for VH for Pre-DG3 AND >50Mil for VH for Post DG-3 and halved downwards for H,M,L,VL. Once initial values set , please REMOVE THE % TERMS and ROUND UP THRESHOLDS to nearest 10-s or 5-s Mil USD
2 The >10% for Execution Duration is "Capped" at limit of >6Mths for VH and halved downwards for H,M,L,VL. Once initial values set , please REMOVE THE % TERMS and ROUND UP THRESHOLDS to nearest full or half month
3 Project Teams can opt to use this qualitative scale but are encouraged to develop a quantitative scale (E.g. Annualised Kbpd impact OR Annualised No of Days Downtime etc) based on project economics