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RateGain IC Phillip Capital
RateGain IC Phillip Capital
global passenger departures to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels, reaching 4mn in 2024, which is 110
103% of the 2019 total. US TSA Checkpoint data shows US air traffic has almost reached pre-
90
pandemic levels. Leading airlines like American Airlines, Delta, Southwest and Lufthansa are
seeing very strong summer holiday demand, which they expect to sustain based on bookings 70
momentum. Marriott International has increased CY23 RevPar growth guidance to 10-13% 50
yoy (vs. 6-11% earlier) with major delta coming from international markets, which it expects Dec-21 Jun-22 Dec-22
RATEGAIN IN BSE Sensex
will grow 22- 25% (vs. 12-18% earlier). Hilton has also increased its CY23 RevPar growth
guidance to 8-11% vs. 4-8% earlier. These positive indicators bode well for Rategain, a 100% KEY FINANCIALS
verticalized travel SaaS player poised to benefit from sustained travel demand. Rs mn FY23 FY24E FY25E
Net Sales 5,651 8,924 10,725
FY24 revenue growth guidance of 55% to 58% with 200bps EBITDA margins EBITDA 846 1,518 2,041
Rategain's management has guided for 55% to 58% revenue growth in INR terms (17% to 20% Net Profit 684 1,018 1,485
organic, PCe). Rategain’s gross revenue retention (GRR) ratio has remained consistently high EPS, Rs 6 9 14
at 90% resulting in high renewal business from existing customers. Strong organic growth PER, x 62.3 41.9 28.7
guidance is on the back of strong order book (Rs 1.3bn in FY23, up 25% yoy), pipeline (Rs EV/EBITDA, x 48.0 26.7 19.5
3.8bn), high GRR and investments. Being a Saas player, Rategain benefits from positive PBV, x 6.0 5.3 4.4
operating leverage resulting in margins expansion - 1250bps improvement over FY21-23. For ROE, % 10.3 13.4 16.8
FY24, management has guided for further 200bps EBITDA margins expansion to 17%, which
we believe is achievable on strong growth and operating leverage. Karan Uppal, Research Analyst
kuppal@phillipcapital.in
At 3.6x FY25 EV/sales, the stock remains attractive; Initiate with BUY
Harshraj Rao, Research Associate
We initiate coverage on the stock with a BUY rating and target price of Rs 540 based on 5x
hrao@phillipcapital.in
FY25 EV/sales. Rategain currently trades at an attractive FY25 EV/sales multiple of 3.6x,
compared to key vertical/horizontal SaaS players that trade at CY24 EV/sales multiple of
4.3x/7.7x. We are factoring in 38% revenue CAGR with 400bps EBITDA margin expansion over
FY23-25 resulting in 47% PAT CAGR. Risks include reversal in travel demand risking future
growth, competitive intensity increasing and margin expansions not playing out as expected.
$ mn
$ mn
0% 15
130.8 8.3% 8.3%
60 24.9 10%
108.8 7.2%
-20% 10 18.5
40 -40% 70.1
56.1 2.5% 10.5 5%
20 49.2 -40% 5
37.3 33.9
3.1 4.0 0.8 4.1
0 -60% 0 0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
Revenue by segment, engagement and geography (FY23) Gross Revenue Retention remains high at 90%
100% RoW, 3% Gross Revenue Retention
90% Asia , 11%
100% 92.78% 95.5%
Martech, 89.2% 90.1% 90.1%
80% 37% Hybrid, 43%
Revenue Contribution (%)
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
Top client concentration reducing in recent years Clients and LTV-CAC ratio
Top 10 Clients Non Top Clients Client Count LTV to CAC
100%
3500 25
21.3
80% 3000
20
58% 56%
63% 68% 68% 2500
% of Revenue
60%
Client Count
12.9 15
2000
0% 0 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
Provides the travel and hospitality industry with comprehensive pricing solutions
Today, the company offers travel and hospitality solutions to many verticals including
hotels, airlines, car rental companies, online travel agents (OTAs), vacation rentals,
package providers, and travel management companies. RateGain’s products, solutions
and services are aimed at helping its clients make better decisions with accurate
insights, acquire more customers, retain their customers, and expand their wallet
share.
Rategain classifies its existing business under three main categories - a) Data as a
services (Daas) which provides data and information on competitive rate and rate
parity to Hotels, Airlines, OTAs, Car Rentals, etc., b) Distribution which provides
seamless connectivity between hotels and their demand partners including OTAs, GDS
(global distribution system) and others and c) Martech (Marketing Technology) which
provides end-to-end digital marketing suite to manage brand presence for hotels
across social media and meta-search platforms. Of the above, Daas and Distribution
are pure Saas product offerings while Martech is service offering to Hotels.
Company currently has 2,942 customers (+543 annual addition in FY23) across more
than 100 countries. The company powers distribution for more than 191,000
properties, encompassing 500+ hotel chains worldwide. Its clientele is impressive –
including 8 of the Fortune 500 Global companies, 23 of the top-30 hotel chains, 25 of
the top-30 OTAs, in addition to leading car rental companies, airlines, and cruise lines.
RateGain serves customers across the entire travel industry value chain
• Market Intelligence: This provides access to pricing data (at scale) and analytics
that show trends, opportunities, and market developments.
• Dynamic Pricing Recommendations: Within the travel industry, this category
serves segments that have traditionally used a flat or seasonal pricing.
Daas: Real-time pricing insights; caters to almost all players in the travel value chain
Latest wins announced in Daas – String of Deals announced within Airlines segment
Client Name Segment Region Details
Vacation ownership business NA One of World’s largest vacation ownership business chooses Optima for enhancing its pricing strategy
Middle East
Air Cairo Airline Egypt’s second largest carrier, Air Cairo chose AirGain for increasing market share and optimizing pricing
(Egypt)
Europe SKY express chose Airgain for accurate and real-time competitive pricing insights as it looks to expand its
SKY Express Airline
(Greece) footprint across Europe.
Air India selected Airgain to assist in dynamically adjusting ticket prices with real-time, accurate and
Air India Airline Asia (India)
high-quality airfare data
Akasa Air Airline Asia (India) Akasa Air selected RateGain’s AirGain product for accurate and real-time airfare data
Jazeera Middle East Jazeera Airlines, the second-largest carrier and leading low-cost carrier of Kuwait, selected Rategain’s
Airline
Airways (Kuwait) Airgain product to dynamically adjust prices with real time, accurate and high quality data.
Holiday Parks Chain Holiday Parks Europe (UK ) Holiday Parks Chain selected RevAI for demand forecasting and price optimization
Cruise Lines Cruiseline NA Two luxury Cruise Lines on-boarded Rategain for competitive price intelligence
Leisure Resorts
Hotels/Resorts US Fastest growing leisure resorts company in US selected demand forecasting platform RevAI
Company
Latin America
Grupo Posadas Hotels/Resorts Grupo Posadas, Mexico’s largest chain selected Rategain for Rate intelligence and parity.
(Mexico)
Airlines Airline NA Three new airlines added in Q1FY23.
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
Management targets 25% organic growth in FY24; long term outlook is positive
DaaS growth is driven by online bookings and travel industry momentum: With the
rising popularity of online bookings (currently 50%+ adoption), the need for Data as a
Service (DaaS) products should increase, as demand and supply partners would require
pricing intelligence to compete effectively.
FY23 was a robust year for the company for Daas, with 43% USD revenue growth (25%
organic, PCe) and 54% INR revenue growth, and it now represents 29% of overall FY23
revenue. Rategain is seeing greater traction in existing accounts mature segments
(OTAs, Car Rentals, Hotels) who are expanding volume requirements given strong
travel demand. In addition, company’s relatively newer segment - airlines - is also
seeing strong momentum with new customer additions (see table above). Out of 300+
airlines, which the company categorises as potential customers, 40 are the clients of
the company. Existing large clients like Singapore Airlines are consuming more data as
travel demand remains strong for effective pricing strategy. Factoring all these,
management is targeting 25% organic revenue growth in INR terms in the Daas
segment in FY24, which we believe is achievable given strong momentum in existing
clients and new client addition.
Global travel is influenced by big OTAs driven by their marketing prowess. This in turns
drives more online bookings throughs their platforms which is a natural growth driver
for channel manager software such as Rezgain and DHISCO Switch. This is a pure SaaS
business as more bookings online covert to more volume processing by the distribution
platforms. As a result, gross margins in this business are very high. The DHISCO
platform contributes majority of revenue, serving 140 hotel chains with 150,000
properties across the world connected to it. The remaining distribution revenue comes
from Rezgain, which is targeted to affordable chain hotels (Lemon Tree, OYO,
Millennium Hotels). Hotels depend majorly on channel-management software to
distribute their pricing and inventory
Rategains has two products in the distribution segment– RezGain and DHISCO
(acquired in 2018): RezGain is sold on a subscription basis where customers pay a
monthly/annual subscription fee to access the product targeted to mid-market chains.
DHISCO operates on a transaction model where revenue generation is through
bookings done by OTAs and GDS operators.
The martech segment earns revenue on a subscription basis only. As of FY22, it had
1,000+ active customers – more than doubled from 350 in FY21. Rategain aims to
expand in US, UAE, India and parts of EU – which offer significant opportunity. The
company continues to invest in sales and cross-selling / upselling product offerings. It
will expand offerings that will create customer value with end-to-end social media
management.
Due to its DaaS advantage, Rategain has insights on pricing and demand trends in
advance, which helps it to strategize spending on social media and meta-search
platforms for advertisements for hotels. With Adara’s addition, Rategain’s offerings in
Martech become even more compelling, helping Hotels drive higher ROI on their
marketing investments. There are two main streams within martech – (1) brand
engagement and (2) paid digital media. Within this, Rategain tends to manage the
entire social media strategy providing good returns on clients’ marketing spend. It also
optimises and leverages spend on meta-search platforms like Google and Trivago.
Rategain is one of the few players present across the three segments
OTA Destination Casual Pandemic
Rategain Fornova TravelClick Siteminder Derbysoft
Insight Think Fridays Labs
Daas Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Distribution Yes Yes Yes Yes
Martech Yes Yes Yes Yes
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
5000
2,090
4000
740
Rs mn
3000 1,202
1,943
1,994 356
2000 1,322
1,415
1,218
1000
1,294 1,618
1,254 934 1,049
0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
24% 30%
80% 35% 35%
43%
% of revenue
0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
For example, if a SaaS company has a revenue growth rate of 50% and breakeven at
operating margin levels, then its score would be 50, indicating that the company is
heavily investing in growth at the expense of profitability. Conversely, if the growth is
20% and operating margin is 20%, its score would be 40, indicating that the company
is achieving healthy balance between growth and profitability.
As per Mckinsey, only a a small share of SaaS companies sustain growth rates above
30-40%. Of the 100 public SaaS companies with revenue above US$100mn analysed by
Mckinsey in 2021, the median revenue growth rate was just 22%.
For analysing Rategain, we consider EBITDA margins, because below that there is
considerable volatility due to depreciation, other income, and exceptional items. Also,
EBITDA margins gives the true picture of the company’s operating profitability.
Salesforce has missed three out of last five years on lower growth
CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23e CY24e
Revenue ($ mn) 13,282 17,098 21,252 26,492 31,352 34,623 38,500
growth % 26% 29% 24% 25% 18% 10% 11%
Rategain and Adara will help customers make data-driven decisions, drive better marketing ROI
Adara should help to expand Rategain’s footprint across all industry segments
Myhotelshop – in martech
Sep 23, 2021
• Purchase consideration: NA
• Revenue contribution: NA
• About MyHotelShop: It provides bid management and advertising campaign
management solutions to hotels to drive maximum traffic to their hotel’s website.
MyHotelshop has a presence in Austria, Switzerland, and Germany. RateGain is
helping MyHotelshop scale up at a global level, cross-selling to its existing large
clients in the US and Europe.
Client Count
60% 12.9 15
2000
0% 0 0
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
56.1 0%
60 49.2
37.3 33.9 -20%
40 -40%
20 -40%
0 -60%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
25 19.0%
17.0% 20%
20 15.0%
15%
$ mn
15
8.3% 8.3% 24.9 10%
7.2%
10 18.5
2.5% 10.5 5%
5
3.1 4.0 0.8 4.1
0 0%
FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24e FY25e
Air Travel continues to recover: Share of 2019 tickets purchased for May-Sep Travel
Passenger ticket sales, % yoy from 2019 IATA expects industry recovery to 2019 levels by 2024
Source: IATA, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Company Data, PhillipCapital India Research
US TSA checkpoint data – US air traffic has almost reached pre-pandemic levels
TSA checkpoint travel numbers 30 day moving average
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
IATA expects overall traveller numbers to reach 4bn in 2024 (counting multi-sector
connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-covid-19 levels (103% of 2019’s
total).
Source: IATA, PhillipCapital India Research Source: IATA, PhillipCapital India Research
Regional passenger recovery (2019=100); all regions to recover to 2019 levels by 2024
Boeing - air traffic to recover to pre-covid levels by 2023-24 Airbus - air traffic to recover to pre-covid levels between 2023-25
➢ Air traffic outlook: Global passenger traffic increased c. 70% in ➢ Air traffic outlook: Commercial air traffic continued to recover in
2022; at 75% of pre-pandemic levels globally, at 90% excluding 2022, with domestic and regional markets leading the way.
China. This shows that demand is quite robust. In its Q2 CY22 call, International traffic has progressively been closing the gap. The
management had indicated that overall passenger traffic will recent reopening of China is proving to be a strong positive driver
return to 2019 levels in 2023-24. for air traffic. In its Q2 CY22 call, Airbus’ management said it
➢ Passenger traffic in February 2023 increased by more than 55% expects commercial air traffic to recover to pre-covid levels
yoy and was at 85% of pre-pandemic levels; comprised of 97% between 2023 and 2025.
domestic and 78% international.
Aircraft deliveries per region – 2018-2022 Scheduled aircraft deliveries; CY23 deliveries at 2019 levels
Source: IATA, PhillipCapital India Research Source: IATA, PhillipCapital India Research
As per Skift research, Global OTA bookings and overall hotel revenues continue to
recover. Skift forecasts 13% growth in OTA bookings in CY23 with bookings surpassing
2019 levels. Similarly, global hotel revenues should grow 9% in CY23 to US$ 838bn,
which will match 2019 revenue.
Global OTAs: Gross bookings to exceed 2019 levels in 2023 Global hotel revenue: To reach 2019 levels in 2023
Global Online Travel Agency Gross bookings (bn. $) Global Hotel Revenue (in Bn. $) Growth %
Growth % 1000 60%
700 65.4% 80% 889
618 819 843 38.0%34.9% 838
783 769 40%
600 555 60% 800 711 723
524 38.7%
491 40% 9.0% 6.1% 20%
500 8.3% 4.6% 570
13.0% 11.4% 600 1.7% 2.9%
20%
$ bn
0% 400
300 -20%
214 -20%
200 200 -51.0%
-59.2% -40% -40%
100 -60%
0 -60%
0 -80%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E
Source: Skift Research, PhillipCapital India Research Source: Skift Research, PhillipCapital India Research
350 393
300
250
200
25-04-2023
25-12-2021
25-01-2022
25-02-2022
25-03-2022
25-04-2022
25-05-2022
25-06-2022
25-07-2022
25-08-2022
25-09-2022
25-10-2022
25-11-2022
25-12-2022
25-01-2023
25-02-2023
25-03-2023
25-05-2023
Financials
Income Statement Cash Flow
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Net sales 3,666 5,651 8,924 10,725 Pre-tax profit 109 673 1,234 1,800
Growth, % 46.2 54.2 57.9 20.2 Depreciation 301 358 481 490
Other operating income - - - - Chg in working capital (776) (1,451) (603) (406)
Raw material expenses - - - - Total tax paid 100 (122) (207) (315)
Employee expenses 1,914 2,528 3,898 4,649 Cash flow from operating activities (267) (542) 904 1,569
Other Operating expenses - - - - Capital expenditure (287) (356) (491) (500)
EBITDA (Core) 306 846 1,518 2,041 Chg in investments (239) (12) (100) (100)
Growth, % 396.2 177.0 79.4 34.4 Chg in marketable securities - - - -
Margin, % 8.3 15.0 17.0 19.0 Cash flow from investing activities (526) (367) (591) (600)
Depreciation 301 358 481 490 Free cash flow (752) (894) 324 980
EBIT 5 488 1,037 1,551 Equity raised/(repaid) 99 1 - -
Growth, % - 9,667.0 112.3 49.6 Debt raised/(repaid) (860) (7) - -
Margin, % 0.1 8.6 11.6 14.5 Dividend (incl. tax) - - - -
Interest paid 52 15 14 14 Cash flow from financing activities 2,798 215 - -
Other Income 156 199 211 263 Net chg in cash 1,878 (436) 113 769
Non-recurring Items - - - -
Pre tax profit 109 673 1,234 1,800
Tax provided 24 (11) 216 315
Profit after tax 84 684 1,018 1,485
Valuation Ratios
Minorities - - - - FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Net Profit 84 684 1,018 1,485 Per Share data
Growth, % - 711.4 48.8 45.9 EPS (INR) 0.8 6.3 9.4 13.7
Net Profit (adjusted) 84 684 1,018 1,485 Growth, % - 659.5 48.8 45.9
Unadj. shares (m) - - - - Book NAV/share (INR) 61.0 65.4 74.8 88.5
Wtd avg shares (m) 102 109 109 109 FDEPS (INR) 0.8 6.3 9.4 13.7
CEPS (INR) 3.8 9.6 13.8 18.2
CFPS (INR) - - - -
Balance Sheet DPS (INR) - - - -
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Cash & bank 2,451 2,015 2,127 2,896 Return ratios
Marketable securities at cost 1,418 1,160 1,360 1,560 Return on assets (%) 1.4 7.9 10.0 12.6
Debtors 941 1,608 2,217 2,754 Return on equity (%) 2.0 10.3 13.4 16.8
Inventory - - - - Return on capital employed (%) 7.7 28.7 36.6 48.7
Loans & advances - - - -
Other current assets 472 264 608 673 Turnover ratios
Total current assets 5,282 5,047 6,312 7,884 Asset turnover (x) - - - -
Investments 247 258 358 458 Sales/Total assets (x) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8
Gross fixed assets 66 63 73 83 Sales/Net FA (x) 56.0 89.6 122.1 129.1
Less: Depreciation - - - - Working capital/Sales (x) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Add: Capital WIP - - - - Receivable days 93.7 103.8 90.7 93.7
Net fixed assets 66 63 73 83 Inventory days - - - -
Non - current assets 2,216 4,084 4,182 4,248 Payable days 45.4 62.5 48.8 46.0
Total assets 7,811 9,452 10,925 12,673 Working capital days 149.1 68.8 74.8 81.4
Rating Methodology
We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.
We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock.
The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.
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KARAN
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e610311170e2a7c9b5707cdd5e443ee38,
postalCode=400013, st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=477c293c680bc13c214820c5829
KISHORE
56dee88d5655c6a01f132b4e653134839b2b3,
cn=UPPAL KARAN KISHORE
Date: 2023.05.26 12:22:26 +05'30'