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TOURISM WATCH
Quarterly Report: Q2 2023
October 2023
SUMMARY
Public Disclosure Authorized
and climate change-induced extreme weather events are affecting traveler confidence.
• SPECIAL POLICY INSERT (P.7): Comprehensive and up-to-date tourism data is crucial for effective
policymaking, yet tourism statistics are often lacking, particularly in developing economies. To bridge
this gap, the World Bank is exploring non-traditional data sources, and recently partnered with Visa to
incorporate aggregated and anonymous spending insights for evidence-based tourism policymaking.
GLOBAL OVERVIEW
Between April and June 2023, more than 316 million international tourists traveled globally, a 33 percent increase from
the same period in 2022, reaching 85 percent of Q2 2019 levels (Figure 1). The sector continues to move closer to pre-pan-
demic numbers, which in Q2 were boosted by an improved industry staffing and operating environment as well as continuing
resilience in the global economy. Buoyant global hotel occupancy rates reflect this progress, reaching an average of 71 percent
Public Disclosure Authorized
occupancy on July 1, 2023, in comparison to 68 percent in 2022 and 74 percent in 2019 (STR). However, a challenging global
macroeconomic and geopolitical context, coupled with frequent extreme climate events, contributes to future uncertainty.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
INDEX (2019=100)
recent quarter with substantially available data. Mean- 100
Q1-20
Q2-20
Q3-20
Q4-20
Q1-21
Q2-21
Q3-21
Q4-21
Q1-22
Q2-22
Q3-22
Q4-22
Q1-23
on 2019 figures by 22 percent), and overall trade in goods
plunged 2 percent y/y (improving on 2019 figures by 28 percent). TRAVEL SERVICES TOTAL SERVICES TOTAL MERCHANDISE
Travel receipts, an important indicator of tourism’s contribu- Source: World Trade Organization.
tion to foreign exchange earnings and GDP, continued to rise. Note: Figure includes 82 territories that account for 90 percent, 89 percent,
and 87 percent of overall trade in goods, services, and travel services in 2019,
Though still limited, inbound receipts data for available countries respectively.
in January–July 2023 showed a substantial recovery compared
to pre-pandemic receipts (2019), particularly for Pakistan
(115 percent growth), Albania (82 percent growth), Monte-
negro (77 percent growth), Türkiye (75 percent growth), Figure 3. Evolution in Aviation Supply vs. Demand
North Macedonia (56 percent growth), and Colombia (31
percent growth) (UNWTO). Major source markets leading 250%
June 2023 marked the first y/y decline in U.S. travel-related 20%
15%
of softening (Figure 4). U.S. travel-related inflation—reflected 10%
by the U.S. Travel Price Index (TPI)—has decreased faster than
5%
overall consumer price levels, measured by the U.S. Consumer
Price Index (CPI). In June 2023, The TPI declined 1.7 percent 0%
percent y/y) and airfares (-19 percent y/y). Airfares fell even
below 2019 prices likely due to a leveling out of supply and
demand (Figure 3), and this probably contributed to travel
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (U.S.) TRAVEL PRICE INDEX (U.S.)
growth. Overall, the CPI eased as well but was still up 0.2
percent versus May 2023 and up 3 percent y/y. (USTA and BLS) Source: U.S. Travel Association.
ANNOUNCEMENTS (2019=100)
ments continue to plateau after a brief resurgence until Q2 120
NUMBER OF PROJECT
2021. According to the latest UNWTO and fDi Tourism Green- 100
Q1-20
Q2-20
Q3-20
Q4-20
Q1-21
Q2-21
Q3-21
Q4-21
Q1-22
Q2-22
Q3-22
Q4-22
Q1-23
Q2-23
whereas Asia Pacific remained subdued, likely due to China’s
sputtering economy, rocked by a struggling real estate sector FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
and low consumption.
Source: Global Data.
Note: Data is from Factiva news scraping as of September 14, 2023.
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
In Q2 2023, all regions continued growth in estimated avia- In Q2 2023, y/y changes in estimated aviation passenger
tion passenger arrivals, but with a reduced y/y growth rate arrivals were positive for 209 out of 223 reporting territo-
compared to the previous quarter, as they get closer to a full ries, with the few destinations showing decreases making
recovery compared to 2019 arrivals (Figure 6). East Asia and up a minority of global traffic (1.14 percent of global aviation
the Pacific grew 341 percent y/y with the release of China’s passenger arrivals in 2019). Figures 7 and 8–14 represent these
pent-up demand after the late easing of its COVID-19 rules in changes in green (for growth) and red (for reductions). Figures
January 2023, but the region still remains 41 percent below 2019 8–14 feature y/y changes in estimated aviation passenger
levels. Meanwhile, the Middle East and North Africa continues to arrivals by region (X-axis), only for low- and middle-income
be the only region to exceed 2019 aviation passenger arrivals, countries, which are the focus of the World Bank Group. Coun-
likely after Q4 FIFA World Cup promotions. Both South Asia and tries are ordered by the importance of tourism to their economy
Latin America and the Caribbean are nearing a full recovery (tourism’s contribution to GDP; Y-axis).
(3 and 1 percent below 2019 levels, respectively), which aligns
with trends in tourism arrivals for the same period (UNWTO).
400% 341%
300%
200%
100%
Y/Y CHANGE
80%
60% 52%
43%
39%
40% 33% 31% 27% 34%
20%
20%
6%
0%
-1% -3%
-20% -13% -5% -9% -8% -15%
-40%
-41%
-60%
Eastern and Western and East Asia Europe and Latin America Middle East North America South Asia World
Southern Africa Central Africa and the Pacific Central Asia and the Caribbean and North Africa
-50% 1,922%
No Data
Globally, the destinations with the greatest y/y growth Figure 8. Eastern and Southern Africa
in estimated aviation passenger arrivals were Vanuatu Y/Y Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals (Q2 2022–2023)
(1,922 percent growth), China (1,047 percent), Samoa
20
Mauritius
(1,004 percent), and Tonga (941 percent), all in East Asia
and the Pacific. Countries that experienced arrivals reduc-
tions are mainly surrounding conflict zones, such as Ukraine Namibia
15
TOURISM % GDP (2019)
Comoros
tion), Sierra Leone (3 percent reduction, due to the election 1 2 Kenya
Sudan 35
travel shutdown), and Belize (3 percent reduction). Armenia 74 6 Eswatini
(85 percent growth) is leading y/y growth for the Europe
5
Burundi
Angola
and Central Asia region, while Eswatini (137 percent growth), Congo, Dem. Rep.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (76 percent growth), Chad
0
(47 percent growth), Algeria (104 percent growth), and Sri −50 0 50 100 150
Lanka (44 percent growth) are leading y/y growth in their PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
respective regions. 1. Zambia, 2. Malawi, 3. Zimbabwe, 4. Ethiopia, 5. South Africa,
6. Mozambique, 7. Uganda
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC.
40
40
Cabo Verde
Vanuatu
Fiji
30
30
Cambodia
Samoa
Philippines
Thailand
20
20
Gambia, The
São Tomé and Principe
Tonga
Côte d’Ivoire 1 China
Senegal Lao PDR
10
10
0
0
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
1. Cameroon, 2. Ghana, 3. Niger, 4. Togo, 5. Benin, 6. Guinea, 1. Malaysia, 2. Mongolia, 3. Myanmar, 4. Vietnam
7. Congo, Rep. Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC.
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC.
Figure 11. Europe and Central Asia Figure 12. Latin America and the Caribbean
Y/Y Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals (Q2 2022–2023) Y/Y Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals (Q2 2022–2023)
Montenegro St. Lucia
60
30
Georgia
25
TOURISM % GDP (2019)
Grenada
TOURISM % GDP (2019)
Albania
20
Belize
Jamaica
Dominica
15
20
Armenia
Turkiye Dominican Republic
Bulgaria Mexico
10
1
2 1 2 El Salvador
Azerbaijan 3 Cuba
3 North Macedonia Haiti 4 Brazil Nicaragua
4
5 Belarus 78 56 Paraguay
6 Russian Federation Suriname
5
Kazakhstan
0
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
1. Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2. Kyrgyz Republic, 3. Moldova, 1. Honduras, 2. Costa Rica, 3. Argentina, 4. Peru, 5. Bolivia,
4. Tajikistan, 5. Serbia, 6. Uzbekistan 6. Guatemala, 7. Colombia, 8. Ecuador
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC. Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC.
Figure 13. Middle East and North Africa Figure 14. South Asia
Y/Y Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals (Q2 2022–2023) Y/Y Change in Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals (Q2 2022–2023)
20
80
Lebanon
Maldives
Jordan
TOURISM % GDP (2019)
15
60
Tunisia
TOURISM % GDP (2019)
Morocco
10
40
Iraq Algeria
Iran, Islamic Rep.
20
5
Sri Lanka
Libya Nepal
Pakistan India
Bangladesh
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 10 20 30 40
PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS PERCENT GROWTH IN ESTIMATED AVIATION PASSENGER ARRIVALS
Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC. Source: OAG Traffic Analyzer; WTTC.
120
100 30
80
20
60
40 10
20
0
0
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
FLIGHT BOOKINGS FLIGHT SEARCHES TRAVEL SENTIMENT SCORE (RIGHT AXIS)
Source: UNWTO Tourism Data Dashboard, Google, OAG Traffic Analyzer, and TCI Research.
Tourism data and statistics play a pivotal role in informing The urgency to improve tourism data has increased due to
and shaping effective policymaking within the tourism sector. recent shocks and global crises. The COVID-19 pandemic was
Tourism data can help policymakers better allocate scarce a clear example of tourism industry disruption that benefited
resources, understand visitor trends and preferences, prior- from just-in-time data. Now, rapid technological advancements,
itize markets and destinations, and monitor environmental sustainability concerns, and changing demographics highlight
and social impacts. the vital role data plays in adapting to an evolving industry
landscape and enhancing visitor experiences.
However, many emerging destinations operate in a severely
data-poor environment with a lack of up-to-date tourism The World Bank Group is working to address these data gaps
data and statistics and low analytic capacity. Several factors in three key areas (Table 1).
contribute to this gap, including limited financial resources,
inadequate infrastructure for data collection and analysis,
challenges coordinating across government agencies, and a
lack of prioritization for data-related initiatives.
Investing in Data
Standardizing Data Promoting Public-Private
Infrastructure and
Collection and Reporting Partnerships
Market Intelligence
Modernizing data collection methods, Adopting standardized data collec- Collaborating with private sector
using non-traditional data sources, tion methodologies and reporting stakeholders, such as tourism and
such as online big data, imple- frameworks, in alignment with non-tourism businesses, industry
menting digital and automated international standards set by associations, and research organi-
systems, and upskilling personnel organizations like the UNWTO. zations, to enhance data collection
responsible for data management. This ensures consistency and efforts. Public-private partnerships
comparability of data, making it can lead to more comprehensive and
Examples of World Bank Group easier to benchmark tourism accurate data, as businesses often
work: performance against global trends have valuable insights into tourist
• Using OAG’s aviation data to mon- and share information with interna- behaviors and trends.
itor tourism sector growth trends tional stakeholders.
and the impacts of crises, such Examples of World Bank Group
as Russia’s war on Ukraine, on the Examples of World Bank Group work:
sector. work: • A new World Bank-Visa partner-
• Developing a set of sustainable • Financing the improvement of ship, analyzing aggregated and
tourism indicators in Indonesia tourism statistics systems in anonymous spending insights
and capacity building for the Benin by piloting Tourism Satellite through the Visa Destination
development of new tourism data Accounts. Insights platform, to identify
collection instruments (Expendi- • Conducting an extensive assess- high-value tourism segments and
ture Surveys, Occupancy Surveys, ment of current practices in lodg- spending patterns and monitor
and Exit Surveys) in The Gambia ing surveys and providing recom- progress in the diversification of
and Peru. mendations to improve response tourism markets.
• Harnessing big data and machine rates and enhance performance • Launching the Blue Tourism Re-
learning by analyzing thousands as part of IFC’s project on Tourism source Portal with support from
of online travel reviews, searches, Sector Strengthening in Peru, in the World Bank Group and Tour-
and listings informing the Comoros collaboration with UNWTO. ism Action Coalition for a Sustain-
Country Economic Memorandum able Ocean (TACSO).
and the Uganda Economic Update.
INDEX CONSTRUCTION Travel Sentiment Index: Data comes from TCI Research. The
index leverages a social media web crawler that monitors global
Estimated Aviation Passenger Arrivals Index: Data on esti- web social conversations shared by the media, consumers,
mated international passenger arrivals landing in a given companies, citizens, brands, and officials. Data are reported
geography, regardless of flight length, for a given month or as Net Sentiment Scores measuring the balance of sentiment
quarter. OAG estimations are based on real bookings data polarity in web social conversations concerning the travel and
made by travel agencies through global distribution systems tourist destinations (percent of positive comments—percent
(GDS). These estimates are reportedly based on a series of of negative comments).
proprietary algorithms that use various external datasets and
historical ratios between total passengers and realized GDS GLOSSARY
bookings. These arrivals data are rebased as a percentage
of estimated aviation passenger arrivals in the same month Available Seat Kilometer (ASK): Metric used in the airline
or quarter of 2019, then multiplied by 100. Three countries industry to measure the total passenger carrying capacity of
were removed from recovery graphs given missing arrivals an airline’s flights. It represents the number of seats available
data for some months. for sale multiplied by the number of kilometers those seats
are scheduled to travel.
Tourism Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Index: Data comes
from GlobalData and provides intelligence on greenfield FDI 1
European Travel Commission (ETC): Consumer market
trends. A team of analysts collect FDI-related information from research was undertaken in May–June 2023 on 10 key Euro-
thousands of publicly available sources, such as company press pean outbound markets.
releases and other media channels. Each project is qualified,
quality controlled, and entered into a database. The database Occupancy Rate: Indicator of hotel performance, equal to the
is global, real-time, and ever-expanding. number of hotel rooms sold/room supply.
Travel Price Index (TPI): TPI measures the cost of travel Revenue Passenger Kilometer (RPK): Metric used in the avia-
away from home in the United States and is based on the tion industry to measure the total passenger traffic or demand
U.S. Department of Labor price data collected for the monthly for an airline’s services. It represents the sum of the products
Consumer Price Index (CPI). The TPI is released monthly and obtained by multiplying the number of revenue passengers
is directly comparable to the CPI. carried on each flight stage by the corresponding stage distance.
For further information, The Tourism Watch quarterly bulletin series is prepared by the Trade, Investment
and Competitiveness (TIC) Markets, Competition and Technology Tourism group
please contact the team at
of the Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation (FCI) Global Practice. The bulletin
tourism@worldbank.org has been prepared by a team led by Alex Pio, Alba Suris, and Anthony Patrick
or visit the Tourism and Mavrogiannis, with contributions from Vincent Palmade, Louise Twining-Ward,
Competitiveness website. Shaun Mann, Denisse Pierola, Jessie F. McComb, Jose Miguel Villascusa, and
Jessica Rose Wilson, under the guidance of Martha Martinez Licetti.