Spare Parts

Analytics using
Predictive
Maintenance
Model

Presented by: Rohit

Mahendra Agale
Table of Contents
• Problem Statement
• Spare Part Analytics
• Solution: ANN
• Methodology
• ANN
• How ANN Works?
• Activation Function
• Learning and Optimization Of ANN
• Hyperparameters
• Project Timeline
• References
Problem Statement:

• A Logistic Company is experiencing

delay in maintenance completion,
difficulties in replacing spare-parts and
there’s inability to measure impact the
performance of fleet maintenance and
delivery services, is a problem for
smart maintenance management. This
issue intriguing potential overspending
up on unnecessary replacement parts.
• So, as an AI expert best Predictive
Maintenance Model which focus on
Spare Parts Analytics much be
obtained to solve the problem.
Spare Part
Analytics:
• Warranty Period:
• Warranty is an important part of
product marketing that helps both
manufacturer and customer. From the
standpoint of the manufacturer,
warranty can help the company make
more money and improve its
reputation. From the customer's
perspective, warranty is seen as a
dependable indicator to quality
assurance (QA).
Availability of Spare Part
• Methodology of spare parts availability is divided into: critical and
active factors. Active factors include for example: terms of cooperation
with suppliers, methods of replenishment of spare parts, stock levels of
spare parts and unplanned downtime.
• Terms of cooperation with suppliers of spare parts for machines are
determined by a number of factors such as: the location of the spare
parts storage and the responsibility for making decisions about the size
and the time of the order.
• In order to minimize the effects of unscheduled downtime, we should
store those parts for machines that, after our detailed analysis, seem to
be most necessary for the continuity of the production process.
• In the case of devices for unscheduled works it is difficult to predict
what spare parts will be needed, but a well thought out plan for the
availability of spare parts for machines will have the notable benefits
for your production.
• Other factors influencing the availability of spare parts include for
example the fact if a particular part is owned by us and the rules for the
settlement of supplies.
Division of
Spare Parts:
• Rotating spare parts - spare
parts which have been used
for the needs of the
Maintenance Department
in the analysed period,
• Non-rotating spare parts –
spare parts which have not
been used in the analysed
period despite they were in
stock and/or were accepted
to the warehouse
Solution: Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
• Artificial Neural Network (ANN) will be the best Predictive Maintenace Model which
focus on the Spare Parts Analytics and Replacement of the parts.
• ANNs have been successfully applied to problems of signal analysis, classification,
pattern recognition, feature extraction and many more.
• This work demands an ANN-based network that forecasts the demand for service
parts with lumpy patterns or Availability of the spare parts, Warranty Periods, Price
and Delivery Time Tracker and .
• This work is motivated by the fact that ANNs do not require any parametric
assumptions about the data.
 • Data Collection and Integration: Collect relevant data from various sources,
including historical spare parts usage, equipment sensor data, and operational
data. Integrate the collected data into a centralized data management system,
ensuring data quality and consistency.
• Data Preprocessing and Feature Engineering: Clean and preprocess the data,
handling missing values, outliers, and inconsistencies. Perform feature engineering
to derive meaningful features from the data. This can include variables like
equipment age, usage patterns, maintenance history, sensor readings, and any
other relevant information.
• Predictive Maintenance Model Development / ANN Implementation : After
implementing the ANN split the data into training and testing sets, ensuring the
model is trained on historical data and evaluated on unseen data. Train the model
using historical data, considering features related to spare parts, and equipment
performance. Tune the model's hyperparameters to optimize its performance and
Methodology for generalization ability.
• Spare Parts Optimization: Utilize the predictive maintenance model to forecast the
Implementation of likelihood of component failures or maintenance needs. Set a threshold or
probability level to determine when replacement parts should be ordered or
ANN: replaced. Implement an optimized spare parts management system that considers
the predicted maintenance needs, lead times, costs, and criticality of parts. Ensure
seamless integration with suppliers to streamline the procurement process and
minimize inventory costs.
• Performance Monitoring and Evaluation: Define key performance indicators (KPIs)
to measure the effectiveness of the predictive maintenance model and spare parts
optimization.
• Building Dashboard and Indicating KPIs: Provide a bird’s-eye view of all the
maintenance activities and status whether not-started, in-process, or complete.
View the maintenance queue in both a calendar and a detailed list view.
• Integrating triggers and notifications: Build triggers based on the live dashboard
when certain KPI’s reach a range of critical levels and then send a notification to all
the members to take action and fix the problem .
Overall Architecture for Data Processing for the
Algorithm
Base Architecture for Data Processing for the Algorithm
Artificial Neural
Network (ANN)
• The model could be represented by
a directed weighted graph.
• The input is processed from the
input-layer to the output layer via
several optional hidden layers.
• Each neuron calculates its
output by an activation function
and passes the result to the next
neuron, until the output-layer is
reached.
How ANN
works?
• The picture shows the
model of a single neuron
which is one of the basic
unit of ANN.
• The outcome of the
Perceptron is calculated
according to equation.
• The weighted inputs and a
bias representing a
threshold value, are used to
calculate the output of the • The result of the nonlinear element is generated by unit Step
summing element, v = wTx + function also called as Activation Function.
w0.
How Algorithms Works:
 Activation Function:
• The main purpose of the activation function is to
introduce the property of nonlinearity into the
model.
• In the scope of this work further the Rectified Linear
Unit (ReLU) is used.
• The ReLU activation function is superior for
the training of more complex networks than the
Sigmoid function.
• It is a piecewise linear function that will output the
input directly if it is positive, otherwise, it will output
zero.
• It has become the default activation function for
many types of neural networks because a model that
uses it is easier to train and often achieves better
performance. It is also used with its variants like
Softplus or leakyRelu to obtain better performance.
Example of a ReLU activation function (blue)
and Softplus (green).
Learning and Optimisation of Neural Network
• Learning of NN :
• During the training phase the learning of the weights as a supervised learning process
is performed. For this study we will be using the Backpropagation algorithm which is
the most widely used learning approach.
• While the training data is processed through the network in a forward direction, the
error of the network is computed based on the output value of the ANN and the
output intended by the data. This error is then propagated in backward direction,
from the output- to the input-layer of the network, to adjust the weights of the
connections accordingly.
• The Backpropagation algorithm is used to calculate the gradient, which in turn
is used for optimization of the weights.
• This approach is applied in an iterative way, several times for the whole training data
set.
• The number of iterations is called the training epochs of the ANN.
Learning and Optimisation of Neural Network
• Optimisation of NN :
• Optimization algorithms are used for calculation of the weights.
• In the scope of this work we will be using : Stochastic Gradient Descent
(SGD), RMSprop and Adam.
• SGD is nowadays one of the most used optimization algorithms in the area of ANN,
therefore it can be understood as the general purpose optimization approach in the
area of neural networks.
• But with the SGD, there was a problem of Fixed Learning Rate.
• So to avoid that, RMSprop and Adam algorithms are used to solve the issue of
complex and fixed learning rate of SGD and thus, we can obtain the Adaptive Learning
Rate for the problem.
Hyperparameter:

• So, after using the ANN model let's

assume the hyperparameters, on
which our model accuracy will be
based are as follows. The Root Mean
Square will play the important factor
in determining the accuracy of the
model and to get the results.
• Assume, hyperparameters are as
follows:
 Project
Timeline:
Summary:
• By using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and considering the input factors like warranty period,
Availability of Spare parts and Price and Delivery Indicators for Spare Parts, we can achieve more
accurate model with high accuracy and with this model we can provide a solution for the logistics
company.

• A Deep Learning based Approach for Automotive Spare Part Demand

References:
• An Introduction to ReLu function: https://builtin.com/machine-learning/relu-activation-function
• https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/9/5475
• A Deep Learning based Approach for Automotive Spare Part Demand Forecasting : Robby Henkelmann
• Weights
and Biases: https://subscription.packtpub.com/book/data/9781788397872/1/ch01lvl1sec12/weights-
and-biases#:~:text=Weights%20in%20an%20ANN%20are,the%20neurons%20affects%20the%20other.
• A study of different Croston-like forecasting methods
• https://pkg.robjhyndman.com/forecast/reference/croston.html
• ANALYSIS OF SPARE PARTS IN TERMS OF THEIR AVAILABILITY MANAGEMENT FOR THE PRODUCTION
PROCESSES NEEDS
: http://www.efos.unios.hr/repec/osi/bulimm/PDF/BusinessLogisticsinModernManagement18/blimm
1812.pdf
• https://dxc.com/us/en/insights/perspectives/paper/how-smart-pricing-analytics-help-oems-compete-
in-the-spare-parts-business

• A Deep Learning based Approach for Automotive Spare Part Demand