PETE 343

PETROLEUM RESERVOIR
ENGINEERING - I
PRODUCTION DECLINE CURVES

Fall 2023 - 2024 Chapter-10

 DECLINE CURVES
Forecasting future production is the most important part of the
economic analysis of exploration and production expenditures.

The two quantities one usually wishes to determine are:

• either remaining oil reserves
• or remaining productive life.

Cumulative production and time are normally selected as independent

variables and are plotted as abscissas.

A varying characteristic of the well performance, which can easily be

measured and recorded, is then selected as a variable to produce a
trend curve.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 2

 DECLINE CURVES
For extrapolation purposes this variable has to meet two qualifications:

1. Its value must be a more or less continuous function of the

independent variable and change in a uniform manner; and

2. It must have a known end point.

Among the many dependent variables, which can be used in estimates

based on performance trends, the rate of production is the most
popular when production is not restricted.

Production-Decline Curves

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 3

 DECLINE CURVES
The two main types are:

• rate-time and
• rate-cumulative production curves

for each of the two independent variables.

Rate of oil production as the dependent variable has the advantage of

always being readily available and accurately recorded.

The end-point requirement is also easily met, since known or

estimated operating costs usually make it possible to determine
accurately the economic-limit rate and thus the end point of the curve.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 4

 DECLINE CURVES
Economic limit: The end point of the production decline curves is
commonly called the economic limit. The economic limit rate is the
production rate that will just meet the direct operating expenses of a
well.
In order to be used for reserve estimation, production decline caused
by reservoir conditions must be distinguished from that caused by
wellbore conditions or by failure of the lifting equipment.

1. Decreasing efficiency of effectiveness of the lifting equipment.

2.Reduction of productive index. (skin, wax deposition etc.)

3. Changes in bottom-hole pressure, gas-oil ratio, water percentage, or

other reservoir conditions

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 5

 CLASSIFICATION OF DECLINE CURVES

The production rate of wells, or groups of wells, generally declines with

time.

An empirical formula can sometimes be found that fits the observed

data so well that it seems rather safe to use the formula to estimate a
future relationship.

The formulas relating time, production rate, and cumulative

production are usually derived by first plotting the observed data in
such a way that a straight-line relationship results.

Some predictions can be made graphically by simply extrapolating the

straight-line plot, or by the use of the mathematical formulas.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 6

 CLASSIFICATION OF DECLINE CURVES

In most cases the production declines at a decreasing rate, that is,

dq/dt decreases with time.

The area under the curve between the curve between the times t1 and
t2 is a measure of the cumulative production during this time period.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 7

 CLASSIFICATION OF DECLINE CURVES

There are three commonly recognized types of decline curves.

Each of these has a separate mathematical form that is related to the

second factor characterizing a decline curve, that is, the curvature.

These types are referred to as:

1. Constant-percentage decline.

2. Harmonic decline.

3. Hyperbolic decline.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 8

 CLASSIFICATION OF DECLINE CURVES
Each type of decline curve has a different curvature.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 9

 NOMINAL AND EFFECTIVE DECLINE
The effective decline rate:
The effective decline rate per unit time D' is the drop in production
rate from qt to qt+1 over a period of time equal to unity (1 month or
1 year) divided by the production rate at the beginning of the
period.

where:
qt = production rate at time t
qt+1 = production rate 1 time unit
later

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 10

 NOMINAL AND EFFECTIVE DECLINE
The nominal decline rate:
The mathematical treatment of
production decline curves is
greatly simplified if the
instantaneous or continuous
decline rate is introduced.

The nominal or continuous

decline rate D, is defined as the
negative slope of the curvature
representing the natural
logarithm of the production
rate q versus time t

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 11

 CONSTANT PERCENTAGE DECLINE
A plot of production rate versus time is generally curved, but the
plot of production rate versus cumulative production on Cartesian
coordinate paper sometimes indicates a straight line trend

where

qi = production rate at the

beginning of decline

QD = cumulative production
when rate equals q

 = slope of the straight line

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 12

 CONSTANT PERCENTAGE DECLINE
Thus, if q versus QD is a straight line, the nominal decline rate is
equal to the slope of the straight line and is constant, hence the
name constant-percentage decline.

The rate-time relationship is obtained by integrating the above

equation:

Since the above equation is an exponential function, the constant-

percentage decline is usually referred to as an exponential decline.
A plot of q versus t on semi-log paper will result in a straight line.
The nominal decline rate is given by the slope of the plot on semi-
log graph paper.
Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 13
 CONSTANT PERCENTAGE DECLINE
The rate-cumulative relationship is obtained by integration

𝑞𝑖 − 𝑞
𝑄𝐷 =
𝐷
The remaining life to abandonment time is obtained as:

Where
ta = abandonment time
qa = production rate at the abandonment time

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 14

 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
With hyperbolic decline the nominal decline rate D is proportional
to a fractional power n of the production rate, this power being
between 0 and 1

In which the constant  is determined under initial conditions by:

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 15

 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
After integration the following rate-time relationship is obtained:

The above equation can also be written as:

𝑞 −𝑛 = 𝑞𝑖−𝑛 1 + 𝑛𝐷𝑖 𝑡

This indicated that a graph of q-n versus t on Cartesian coordinate

paper will yield a straight line with slope 𝑛𝐷𝑖 𝑞𝑖−𝑛 and intercept 𝑞𝑖−𝑛
(t = 0).

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 16

 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
A value of n is assumed and then checked by the linearity of 𝑞𝑖−𝑛
versus t. The correct value of n will yield the best straight line.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 17

 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
Another useful relationship is obtained from nominal decline
definition

1 1
= + 𝑛𝑡
𝐷 𝐷𝑖

This equation indicates a relationship between 1/D and t, which

may sometimes be useful in determining Di and n. The slope of the
straight line is n and the intercept on the 1/D axis is 1/Di

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 18

 HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
The rate - cumulative production relationship is obtained by
intergarting the rate- time relationship

𝑡
𝑑𝑡
𝑄𝐷 = 𝑞𝑖 න 1ൗ
0 1 + 𝑛𝐷𝑖 𝑡 𝑛

1−𝑛
𝑞𝑖 𝑞
𝑄𝐷 = 1 −
1 − 𝑛 𝐷𝑖 𝑞𝑖

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 19

 HARMONIC DECLINE
A graph of production rate versus cumulative production may not
show a straight line trend on Cartesian coordinate paper but
sometimes shows a straight line trend when re-plotted on semi-log
paper (logq ve QD).

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 20

 HARMONIC DECLINE
With harmonic decline, the nominal decline rate D is proportional
to the production rate

In which the constant  is determined under initial conditions by:

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 21

 HARMONIC DECLINE
After integration the following rate-time relationship for harmonic
decline is obtained

After a second integration the cumulative production at time t is

obtained as expressed by the rate-cumulative equation

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 22

 EXAMPLE
For the given data below, identify a suitable decline model,
determine the model parameters and project production rate until
an abandonment rate of 25 stb/day.

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 23

 EXAMPLE

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 24

 EXAMPLE

qi = 1000 STB/day

CONSTANT PERCENTAGE DECLINE

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 25

 EXAMPLE

ln 904.84 − ln 606.53 1 1
𝐷=− = 0.1 = 0.0329
1 −5 month day

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 26

 EXAMPLE

t (month) q (STB/day)
25 82.08
26 74.27
27 67.20
28 60.81
29 55.02
30 49.79
31 45.05
32 40.76
33 36.88
34 33.37
35 30.20
36 27.32
37 24.72

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 27

 EXAMPLE
𝑞𝑖 − 𝑞
𝑄𝐷 = qi = 1000 STB/day D = 0.0329 1/day
𝐷
t (month) q (STB/day) QD (STB) t (month) q (STB/day) QD (STB)
0 1000 0.0 19 149.57 258528.2
1 904.84 28928.4 20 135.34 262854.1
2 818.73 55105.5 21 122.46 266769.5
3 740.82 78789.9 22 110.80 270314.1
4 670.32 100221.7 23 100.26 273518.3
5 606.53 119613.7 24 90.72 276418.4
6 548.81 137160.4 25 82.08 279044.0
7 496.59 153035.1 26 74.27 281418.6
8 449.33 167402.0 27 67.20 283567.3
9 406.57 180400.9 28 60.81 285511.4
10 367.88 192162.6 29 55.02 287270.6
11 332.87 202805.5 30 49.79 288862.3
12 301.19 212436.1 31 45.05 290302.6
13 272.53 221148.7 32 40.76 291605.8
14 246.60 229031.3 33 36.88 292785.0
15 223.13 236166.2 34 33.37 293852.0
16 201.90 242620.0 35 30.20 294817.4
17 182.68 248462.8 36 27.32 295691.0
18 165.30 253746.3 37 24.72 296481.4

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 28

 EXAMPLE

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 29

 EXAMPLE

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 30

 EXAMPLE

ln 1000 −ln(25)
𝑡𝑎 = = 36.88 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑠
0.1

Parlaktuna & Sınayuç PETE 343 Fall 2023 – 2024 31