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General Introduction to safety engineering

Definitions and basic concepts

Existing risks & Risk perception

DOW index & inherent safe design

Hazard / risk identification & Risk analysis techniques

Risk quantification & Criteria

Introduction to reliability analysis

The Seveso Directive & The legislator

Risk management system & Process safety management systems

Human and organizational factors

Risk quantification and criteria

Why?

How?

Problems

Criteria

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Source: Arendt J. 1990

Risk quantification and criteria: Why?

To rank – Prioritize

Relative value

Comparing risks

Variability - Uncertainity

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Source: Kurt Osterloh

Risk quantification and criteria

The computation of risks usually requires advanced models and high efforts of computation. But,
sometimes, such computations give only the impression of high quality results, for example, if data
are missing.

Under such conditions, it might be adequate to use simple risk computations. The strength of rough
risk measures or matrices becomes visible. In an easy and understandable way, risks are estimated
using mainly only tables or diagrams.

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Risk quantification and criteria: How? Source: EPSC

Calculate: Commute to work

(measurement of risk)
Commute 10 miles (16 km) twice per work day for 200 days per year = 4000 miles (6400 km) per
year.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Motor vehicle accidents U.S.: 2.0 X 10 -6/ vehicle mile traveled.
Total accidents: 71.3% (only damage), 28,1% (injury related), 0,6% involved fatalities

Risk quantification and criteria: How? Source: EPSC

Calculate: Commute to work
Several undesired consequences might apply for the 4000 mile/year commute:
5.7 X 10-3 : Property damage per year
2.2 X 10-3 : Injuries per year
4.8 X 10-5 : Fatalities per year
These values represent an “average” for individual risk associated with the commute to work each
day and is a small fraction of the total risk. Note: Undesired consequence per year.

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Risk quantification and criteria: Fine & Kinney

Occupational Health & Safety

One of the first quantification initiatives

P, C, E

Also values for: effectiveness and cost

Risk quantification and criteria: Fine & Kinney

Consequences refer to the most probable results of a potential accident, Including injuries and
property damage ....

Exposure refers to the frequency of occurrence of the hazard-event (a combination of a hazard with
a person or activity that can start an accident sequence)...

Probability refers to the likelihood that, once the hazard event occurs, the complete accident
sequence will follow with the necessary timing and coincidences to result in the accident and
consequences

Source: (Fine/1971, 158).

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Risk quantification and criteria

How do we quantify a risk?

(Frequency, Consequence): old school?

(Frequence, Consequence, Operations, Resources)

& (Context): New school? Feasible?

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Risk quantification and criteria: Risk matrix

Statements about risk are statements about possible future situations, and these statements are, by
their nature, inherently uncertain.

In order to manage this uncertainty in an intuitive way, many risk managers prefer not to assign
numerical values to likelihood and consequence, but instead assign discrete categories of
consequence and likelihood to the event.

Correct?

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Risk quantification and criteria: Risk matrix

Source: Heinz Peter Berg

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Risk quantification and criteria: Likelihood

Often, frequent, probable Has happened within own organization

Improbable, seldom Has happened in this branch of industry

Disastrous, catastrophic Has happened in the world

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Risk quantification and criteria: Consequence

In relation to consequences, it means that different types of impact which cannot be directly compared.

Several consequence dimensions (environment, human life, economy, …)

e.g. ‘‘a single injury’’ and ‘‘destroying one hectare of preserved nature’’are both in the high level category
‘‘very serious’’

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Risk quantification and criteria: NASA

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Risk quantification and criteria: Australian standard.

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Risk quantification and criteria: Hicks scale

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Risk quantification and criteria: Hoffman La Roche

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Specialised risk quantification

Toxicology: concentration based

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Specialised risk quantification: Unit risk

The unit risk value gives the
estimated number of additional
cancer riskcases based on the
inhalation of a substance over
70 years in a concentration
of 1 g/m3 air.
Examples are given in
Table 3-15 and Table 3-16.
This value can then be adapted
to the current conditions in
terms of time and
concentration. This value
is widely used for emission
protection laws in Germany
and the EU.
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Risk quantification and criteria: Kent Scale, US Defence intelligence agency

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Specialised risk
quantification: Mortalities

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Specialised risk
quantification: Mortalities –
different units

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Risk quantification and criteria: Mortalities

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Specialised risk quantification: FAR

Since mortality is a risk parameters not related to the time of exposure, they might give biased
results. For example, a person could live for one year in a house and could use a motorbike for 2 h
per year; both could cause the same mortality. To improve comparison, a standardised basic time of
exposure has to be introduced. The parameter Fatal Accident Rate (FAR) is based on this idea. Here,
the time of exposure is defined with 108 h or 11,415.5 years (Bea 1990). The long time period was
chosen to give result numbers without the application of exponents. Sometimes, a slightly different
parameter is used with a standard exposure time of 103 h (Jonkman et al. 2003). Additionally, there
are also FARs related to distances.

In general, the FAR can be given as follow:

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Specialised risk quantification: FAR

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Risk quantification and criteria: Risk matrix

Source: Heinz Peter Berg

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ROGA – A New Method for Risk‐Based Hazard Analysis: Part 1 – Deductive Hazard Analysis and Risk‐Based
Assessment by Using a Risk Graph

Chemie Ingenieur Technik

Volume 87, Issue 1‐2, pages 95-102, 12 NOV 2014 DOI: 10.1002/cite.201300113
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cite.201300113/full#fig2

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Definitions and basic concepts

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Definitions and basic concepts

Qualitative risk assessment: Uncertainity

(1) Identification of the possible (a) Probability of the undesired Probability part of the risk
undesired events – sources – events
HAZARD

(2) Determination of the fysical (b) Probability of the undesired

effects effect

(3) Determination of the possible (c) Probability of harm

harm

(4) Identification and presentation of the risk

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Definitions and basic concepts

Qualitative risk assessment: Uncertainity

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Definitions and basic concepts

Qualitative risk assessment: Uncertainity

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Risk Tolerance : A “willingness by society as a whole to live with a risk so as to secure certain
benefits in the confidence that the risk is one that is worth taking and that it is being properly
controlled. However, it does not imply that ... everyone would agree without reservation to take this
risk or have it imposed on them.” [United Kingdom, Health and Safety Executive, 2001]

Risk tolerance criteria: A predetermined measure of risk used to aid decisions about whether
further efforts to reduce the risk are warranted

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Individual Risk represents the likelihood that a person will sustain a

fatal injury by all of the hazardous events to which he or she may be
exposed. Presented as a frequency number (fatalities/year). Individual
risk ensures that each person is not exposed to an aggregation of
different risk exposures, the sum of which leads to an overall high risk
exposure for the individual.
Specifies an upper limit amount of 10-4
fatalities/year for individual
members of the public exposed to
an industrial hazard

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Singapore:

The 5 x 10-5 per year Individual Risk Contour remains within the fence line

The 5 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Industrial Developments only

The 1 x 10-6 per year Individual Risk Contour extends into Commercial and Industrial Developments
only

Source: Singapore Pollution Control Department Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, April 2007

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Societal Risk represents the number of people who may be killed by large, single events and how
often those events might occur. Presented as F-N Curves (Plots depicting the frequency “F” of
exceeding “N” or more fatalities) which set:

Risk criteria for the public

Risk criteria for employees

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Societal Risk represents the number of people who may be killed by

large, single events and how often those events might occur. Presented
as F-N Curves (Plots depicting the frequency “F” of exceeding “N” or
more fatalities) which set:

Risk criteria for the public

Risk criteria for employees

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Societal Risk represents the number of people who may be killed by

large, single events and how often those events might occur. Presented
as F-N Curves (Plots depicting the frequency “F” of exceeding “N” or
more fatalities) which set:

• Risk criteria for the public

• Risk criteria for employees

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Risk quantification and criteria: FN curves

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Consequence (Deterministic) approach uses only the consequence variable in the risk equation.
Theoretically this approach would ensure no fatalities will occur as the result of facility operations,
but typically results in impractical and unenforceable requirements

Examples “All airplanes must be designed to never crash” or “no toxic release shall never pass a
facility fence line”

Source: SACHE Workshop

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Risk quantification and criteria: Criteria

Risk approach uses both the consequence and the likelihood parameters of the risk equation, taking
into account the significant safeguards in place that lower the frequency of major
accidents/releases and align the risk with overall societal norms

Example “Require an exclusion zone where the risk of fatality to any individual exceeds the chance
of 1 in 10,000 years”

Source: SACHE Workshop

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