Equity

Research R E S E A R C H N O T E S
Bukalapak.com
Alternative view for Bukalapak August 4th 2021

With Bukalapak listing this Friday August 6th 2021, we maintain our constructive view on Bukalapak as the most attractively
priced e-commerce amongst the emerging markets peers. Based on our valuation multiple analysis, we conclude Bukalapak
valuation is appealing at IDR 850/share. Bukalapak is the most inexpensive in terms of EV/GMV multiple. Not to mention that
Bukalapak’s preferred metric is TPV, which is lower than GMV, overall driving the multiple upwards. Bukalapak is also within
the median range in terms of EV/Gross Profit, but with huge growth opportunities from its niche O2O business model.

The most attractive in EV/GMV metric Figure 2: SEA Limited 2020FY revenue breakdown in USD mn
Bukalapak EV/GMV stands at 0.75, which is already the most
attractive among its peers, and that calculation employs TPV 2500.0 50%
46%
instead of GMV. If we try to calculate the comparison using its 45%
real GMV, assuming Bukalapak GMV is equal to 1,25x TPV, the 2000.0 41% 40%
EV/GMV ratio would fall even lower to 0.60. 2016.0
35%
1777.3
1500.0 30%
Figure 1: EV/GMV metric comparison
25%

1000.0 20%
MercadoLibre 3.93 15%
13%
500.0 10%
582.4
Jumia 3.32 5%

0.0 0%
Sea Limited 1.36 Digital entertainment E-commerce and other Sales of goods
services
Revenue Percentage
Shopify Inc. 1.11
Source: Company, Sucor Research

Bukalapak 0.75
Source: Company, Sucor Research
The difference between GMV and TPV
As for information, GMV accounts for all transactions in the
platform, which may also include the cancelled and pending
orders, while TPV only accounts for the processed transaction
value, thus making the number more accurate. Bukalapak
estimates there is roughly a 30% difference between GMV and
TPV (with GMV accounts higher). It’s important to note that
As can be seen, it’s obvious that the biggest chunk of
revenues still comes from its Digital Entertainment
segment, with notable contributions from the direct sales
e- commerce model. Thus, if we try to evaluate using
EV/Sales, this will give a biased comparison and might
be misleading.
Figure 3: EV/Sales metric comparison
50.00 47.36
45.69
45.00

Bukalapak is using TPV in the EV/GMV comparison above. 40.00

35.00

Despite being the most well-known metric for e-commerce 30.00

companies, GMV and TPV may not be the true representation 25.00
20.00 20.55
of a company’s revenues, this depends on the business model 20.00
of the e-commerce. In the case of marketplace e-commerce 15.00
10.94
like Bukalapak, the revenue comes with its commission (take
10.00
rate) from TPV.
5.00

The case for EV/Gross Profit, instead of EV/Sales 0.00

Sea Limited Jumia MercadoLibre Shopify Inc. Bukalapak
Given there is a huge difference between each e-commerce
Source: Company, Sucor Research
company's business model, with the most familiar being the
marketplace and direct e-sales model, we use revenue data
from Sea Limited to describe how e-commerce companies Based on that, EV/sales may not be the most accurate
would have different revenue streams. valuation metrics. To ensure the peers are comparable,
we should look at EV/Gross Profit as an alternative.

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 Bukalapak.com
Alternative view for Bukalapak
August 4th 2021

Figure 4: EV/Gross Profit metric comparison In our view, competition risk remains high as Tokopedia
300.00
and Shopee have launched their own similar model.
However, we expect merchants to switch to other
250.00 platforms may not be as easy as users given the nature of
higher retention.
200.00

150.00 Bukalapak Mitra program also has the advantage of being

the first mover and the largest O2O e-Warung player with
100.00 85.98
total 39% of market share and 6.9mn registered Mitra
52.11
50.00 30.00
48.10
contributing over 27% of its TPV in 2020, all while offering
a more diversified financial inclusion services with its
0.00
Jumia MercadoLibre Bukalapak Shopify Inc. Sea Limited
platform.
Source: Sucor Research
Notes: Sea Limited EV and gross profit from e-commerce segment, taking out Garena The Mitra also sees revenue increase of 300% with 30%
with 25x EBITDA
of total revenues comes from Mitra Program, this is the
main added value for Mitra partner and thus enhancing
Although Bukalapak EV/Gross Profit multiple is within the stickiness to the Mitra Program.
median of its peers, we think this is still attractive because
there is plenty of room for improvement on Bukalapak’s take Figure 7: Mitra Bukalapak kios
rate since its 1.26% overall take rate is still substantially
smaller relative to its peers. We may see the take rate could
improve as Bukalapak will continue to build ancillary services
around its Mitra network (i.e.logistics).

Figure 5：Take rate comparison among peers

4.0%

3.5% 3.4%

3.0%
2.4%
2.5%

2.0%
Source: Company
1.5% 1.26%

1.0%
Figure 8: Financial inclusion services across O2O program
0.5%

0.0%
Sea Limited Shopify Bukalapak

Source: Company, Sucor Research

Less competition through its niche

Bukalapak has managed to establish their own niche through
its Mitra Bukalapak. We expect this will create enough
differentiation which will allow them to avoid the subsidy
war among the e-commerce players. In addition, Mitra
Bukalapak has provided a stronger footing on the smaller tier
cities e-commerce market share.

Figure 6: Mitra revenue growth in IDR bn Source: Company

250.0
198.8
200.0

150.0

100.0 73.7

50.0
14.8
0.0
Paulus Jimmy
2018 2019 2020 Paulus.jimmy@sucorsekuritas.com
+62 822 5866 8094
Source: Sucor Research, Company
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 Bukalapak.com
Alternative view for Bukalapak
August 4th 2021

Sucor Sekuritas Ratings for Sectors

Overweight : We expect the industry to perform better than the primary
rating definition, market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
analysts certification, and Neutral : We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market
important disclosure index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
Underweight : We expect the industry to underperform the primary market
index (JCI) over the next 12 months

Ratings for Stocks

Buy : We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above
10% over the next 12 months.
Hold : We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10%
over the next 12 months.
Sell : We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next
12 months

Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research
report hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. The
research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed
in this research report.

Disclaimers
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obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any
representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucor Sekuritas accepts no
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this
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may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open
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result investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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 Bukalapak.com
Alternative view for Bukalapak
August 4th 2021

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