World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: 4572

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Uncertainty Analysis of Downscaled Precipitation Using LARS-WG

Statistical Model in Shahrekord Station, Iran
1
Masoumeh Fakhri, 2Mohamad Reza Farzaneh, 3Saeid Eslamian and 4Edward Zia
Hosseinipour
1
M.Sc Graduated Student in Water Structures, Ahvaz University, Iran
masoomeh.fakhri@gmail.com
2
M.Sc Student in Water Resources Management Engineering, Birjand University, Iran
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farzaneh.mr.2009@gmail.com
3
Associate Professor, Isfahan Technology University, Isfahan 8415683111, Iran
saeid@cc.iut.ac.ir
4
Engineering Manager, Ventura County Watershed Protection District, California, USA
Corresponding Author: Zia.Hosseinipour@ventura.org

Abstract
Studies related to the effects of large scale changes in regional climate using Global
Circulation Models (GCM) under the influence of Green House (GH) gas emissions
are very important in the evaluation of the effects/impacts of GH gases on the natural
resources of a region. Once the outputs from the GCM are downscaled (reduced) to
smaller scale (i.e. regional watersheds) the simulation results allow the investigators
to use it for hydrologic and ecologic studies. In this paper, the results from an
application of GCM to north Karoon River sub-watershed of Behesht-abad using the
Shahrekord synoptic station with 30 years of climatologic records and the ECHO-
GCM using the emission scenario A-1 are presented. In this work the model was
downscaled and the results were used via a stochastic simulation model LARS-WG to
simulate a base period of 30 years and forecast future trends for an additional 30 years
(2010-390) simultaneously. As an integral part of this investigation the uncertainty of
the GCM simulations using the Bootstrap method with confidence interval of 95%
was also evaluated. The long term monthly and annual precipitation for the base
period and the simulated results from the subsequent 30 years into the future were
compared. The modeling results indicate that the accuracy of predicted precipitations
is within an acceptable range and that the simulation results can be used for future
water supply planning. Based on the preliminary results from the model for the month
of July an increase in precipitation of about 0.3mm is expected in future years while
for all other months the trends are decreasing precipitation. For example, for the
month of September, the long term trends are a reduction of 0.14 mm and for
December 44mm reduction, which is the maximum predicted monthly precipitation
decrease. Overall, on an annual basis it is expected that precipitation will decrease by
37% on a long term basis; that is, the total precipitation for the region represented by
this station will decrease from 334 mm to 208 mm. This information has great
ramification for the water resources management of the region and future water
supply.
Key Words: Downscaling, Climate Change, Precipitation, LARS-WG, GCM, Model
Uncertainty.

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Introduction

One of the effects of human intervention in nature is increasing greenhouse gases. By

increasing these gases, the amount of solar reflection from ground absorbed by
greenhouse gases increases and creates the phenomenon of global warming and as a
consequence climate change. The effects of this phenomenon on various factors such
as water resources availability, precipitation patterns, environments of ecosystems as
well as other factors is very important for human well being. The first step to deal
with the adverse effects of this phenomenon is determining the baseline conditions
through regional studies. In such studies, there is a need to predict climate parameters
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for future periods using global circulation models such AOGCM. In general, these
simulations are based on climate and non climate scenarios for the entire world. The
basic problem of these models is the large-scale computational cells that cause
decrease in the accuracy of predicted results at regional and local scales. There is also
a requirement of using various techniques for downscaling for regional applications.
Different methods for downscaling have been proposed in literature. An important
and essential step in these methods is the consideration of the uncertainty of final
outputs. That is, quantifying the influence of various sources of uncertainty.The
sources of uncertainty in AOGCM models and the prevailing theory on the evaluation
of the uncertainty (for climate and non climate scenarios) is started with the effects of
specific downscaling method. Many researchers around the world have used output
from AOGCM models and different emissions scenarios with various methods for
uncertainty analyses. For example, Khan et al. (2009) compared observations data
with bootstrap statistic of modeled data by using the boot strap method. They
compared uncertainty of three downscaling models: SDSM, LARS-WG and ANN.
The results from these studies indicated that SDSM and LARS-WG modeles are more
accurate in comparison with ANN model for downscaling. Samadi et al (2009)
investigated the synoptic stations of Kermanshah from Iran's Karkheh basin. They
used the A2 emissions scenario of HADCM3 model to provide a method to select
predictors for statistical downscaling by using SDSM model. This study was
conducted to use uncertainty analysis with correlation and frequency analysis on
observations and modeled temperature and precipitation. Farzaneh et al. (2010)
surveyed uncertainty related to the downscaled data by SDSM model and A2
emissions scenario of HADCM3 model. They began to ponder changing the
parameters of temperature and rainfall for the period 2040 to 2069 in Shahrekord
synoptic station. Results indicated a 49 percent reduction in total rainfall for this
period in comparison with the period 1961 to 1990. Faramarzi et al. (2010, 2009) used
different emissions scenarios of CGCM3 model to consider future climatic
parameters. They used SWAT model to estimate the blue and green water resources,
impacts of climate change and analysis of virtual water trade in Iran. To complement
previous research, in this study, the A1 emission scenario of ECHO-G AOGCM
model and LARS-WG downscaling model was used. We first evaluated the
uncertainty of downscaled data with LARS-WG model and after gaining confidence
in the simulated data for the period 2011 to 2039; we will extend it to rainfall, dry
spell and wet spell.

Brief Description of the Site

Study Area: Behesht-Abad sub basin is situated in the north and northeast of North-
Karun-Basin with geographic coordinates as 50o 23' to 51o 25' longitude east, and 32o

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1' to 32o 34' latitude north. This sub basin's area is 3860 square kilometers and
encompasses about 27 percent of the North-Karun River basin and its share of the
total rainfall is about 18 percent. Snow accounts for 55 percent of total precipitation in
this sub basin. It is expected that future climate change will affect the precipitation
patterns and quantity. Using quality control of data for various stations in this sub
basin, Shahrekord synoptic stations were selected for this study.
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Figure 1. Behesht-abad Digital Elevation Model and Shahrkord location

Initially the observed daily rainfall data was taken from Iranian Meteorological
Organization (IMO). After that A1 emissions scenario of ECHO-G AOGCM model
was taken from CRI. With this information, LARS-WG model was used to downscale
the period 1971 to 2000 and 2011 to 2039. After that uncertainty analysis of
downscaled data in the 1976-2000 periods were determined with the method of Khan
et al. (2006). In Khan’s method bootstrap and re-sampling process was employed.
Using the uncertainty results of previous steps, the usability of generated data in the
next period was tagged. Finally future rainfall, dry spell and wet spell were predicted
that will be presented and discussed in this paper.

Analysis of Results

Using the historical data the annual and moving average of rainfall, dry and wet spell
periods for the years 1971 to 2000 was investigated. Figure 2 below shows the
average total annual rainfall (for the whole period it is 332.7 mm) as well as the 5 year
moving average. From this Figure we observe that roughly 15 years of the 30 year
period, the area has been in wet spell and the other 15 years the area has been in dry
spell (the period 1979 to 1984 is the longest drought duration for the region).

After checking the dry and wet spell of the historical data, in order to forecast future
periods, A1 emissions scenario of ECHO-G model and LARS-WG downscaling
model were used to predict rainfall for the 1976-2000 and 2011- 2039 periods. The
first period was used to compare observation data with downscaled data for
uncertainty analysis and second period was used to predict future rainfall generation.

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Results of the average rainfall uncertainty are shown in Figure 3 and its variance in
Figure 4.

550
Annual Precitipation Average 5 years moving Average
500

450

400
Precitipation (mm)

350
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300

250

200

150

100
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Time(Year)

Figure 2. Total Precipitation and dry and wet spell change in Shahrekord during 1971-2000

For the modeled data in the figure, the thick band of rainfall is an indication the
uncertainty for all months are relatively very low and this indicates the robustness of
the model in estimating monthly rainfall. The thickness of the band in hot months is
less than the cold months and that is related to rainfall fluctuations in the cold months
as there is very little precipitation during the summer in this region. In general, the
thicker the band of variance is the more uncertainty in the estimation of rainfall and
its fluctuation for the cold months.

Based on the results from the above model we can estimate rainfall with 95%
confidence for the base period and therefore we can use the model to predict future
rainfall accurately. The model results can further be used to investigate changes in the
total annual precipitation, dry and wet spells. As shown in Figure 5 below the average
historical total annual rainfall amount is 332mm, it is expected to reduce in the future
to 207mm.

10 Model
9 observe
Mean Precitipation(mm)

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

Time(Month)

Figure 3 Mean observed rainfall and 95% confidence interval of modeled data

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Model
100
Variance Precipitation(mm) 90 observe
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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0
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

time(month)

Figure 4. Variance of observed rainfall and 95% confidence interval of modeled data

This projection indicates a 37 percent reduction in expected future total precipitation;

in spite of significant fluctuations in total annual rainfall (dotted as shown in the
Figure). From these preliminary results one can conclude that proper planning is
needed to face this challenge in order to minimize the destructive effects on regional
economy, agriculture, societal well being, and fragile ecosystem. The graphic also
shows that significant precipitation events are expected in the years 2021, 2024, 2034
and 2037 with precipitation amounts of 485, 418, 348.5 and 347.2 mm. The graphic
also shows that compared with annual moving average of the total rainfall, there
would be a 7 year dry spells that is the longest dry period during the years 2025 to
2033 and on the other hand there would be a 13 year wet spell. If future rainfall
moving average is compared with latest predicted period average, it would show that
all years will be in the category of a dry spell.

550
Annual Precitipation Future Average
500 5 years moving Average Historical Average

450

400
Precitipation (mm)

350

300

250

200

150

100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039

Time(Year)

Figure 5. Average of historical and future annual rainfall and future annual rainfall
with dry spell and wet spell

By comparing the results obtained in this investigation and the results of Farzaneh et
al. (2010) using the A2 emissions scenario of the model HADCM3 and downscaling
employing the SDSM exponential method that have been done on this station, we see

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11 percent difference in the reduction of the amount of rainfall projected in this study,
compared to 49 percent reduction from other research studies and we feel that our
projections are more reasonable. One reason in the large difference between the
projections may be the emissions scenarios and assumptions of the AOGCM model.
While in this research we used the A2 emissions scenario which has examined the
most critical mode.

Conclusions

This study was an attempt to project the changes in wet and dry spells 30 years into
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the future and consider the impact on climate change. We also analyzed the important
issue of uncertainty in downscale schemes of the global models to regional-local
scales. The research was conducted in Behesht-Abad sub-basin of North-Karun basin
and employed the Shahrekord synoptic station data to determine the effect of the
release of A1 emission scenario of ECHO-G AOGCM model and the LARS-WG
downscaling method with SPLUS statistical software for uncertainty analysis, to
explore the usefulness of these methodologies for further research. This paper
presented the findings of this study thus far as explained above and summarized here.
The average historical annual rainfall for the area is 332.7mm that puts the region in a
class referred to as semi-arid climate. Using five year moving average of historical
total annual precipitation, we see equal dry and wet spell periods with driest period in
the years 1979 to 1984. Due to the low accuracy of the results produced from the
large computational cell of AOGCM, uncertainty analysis is one of the most
important steps in the quality control process to check the accuracy of predicted data.
Comparing the historical observed data and model projections, we can estimate the
uncertainty range of the model data. We can also estimate the accuracy of fitted data
for different months separately. Variances seen in the band of uncertainty and
fluctuation in rainfall demonstrates high sensitivity of the models to fluctuations in
rainfall. Using the variance of the observed data, the model was able to estimate
precipitation fluctuations. Very low band thickness for uncertainty of modeled rainfall
that also contains the uncertainty of the average observed rainfall within this band,
provides 95 percent probability (confidence) that using these methods and model we
can accurately predict future changes in precipitation. In the final analysis of study
results we see that average future total annual rainfall will most likely decrease %37.

References
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green water resources availability in Iran. Hydrol. Process. 23, 486–501.
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crop water productivity in Iran: implications of agricultural water management for
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Conference on research, teacher and student in university of Birjand at research weak,

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