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Abstract — This study is conducted to demonstrate the methods The aim of this project is to predict health insurance
and results of cross-selling techniques by applying different policyholders who would be likely interested in buying
methods in order to make future data-oriented decision making vehicle insurance as an example of cross-selling strategies. A
in the insurance sector which is one of the important financial publicly available dataset [1] that contains around 381.000
industries by using data whose volume, diversity, velocity and samples, 12 various attributes like demographic as well as
importance have been increasing rapidly for all kinds of vehicle information has been used for that purpose. For the
organizations today. During the study, 14 articles have been purpose of the article, 3.000 randomly selected samples from
published in the last 5 years about cross-selling in marketing, big
data and engineering are used for literature review and their
the dataset have been chosen to reveal impacts of dimension
results have been examined. For the study, randomly selected reduction methods on accuracy and F1 score metrics of
3.000 samples in the dataset which is not balanced that consist ofapplied different classification techniques through an
381.000 samples and 12 different attributes have been chosen and unbalanced target dataset. This study presents a
data analysis, data transformation, scaling and oversampling comprehensive cross-selling literature research for different
technique for the output column methods performed respectively sectors, in particular financial industries, and machine
before applying machine learning algorithms to classify learning modelling through various state-of-art algorithms for
appropriate customers for cross-selling. The main research of the classifying the possible customers that would be appropriate
study is that revealing impacts of different applied feature for buying vehicle insurance as an example of cross-selling. In
selection and dimensionality reduction methods effectively on
spending time on modelling and performance results. In addition,
addition, the study tries to provide comparable performance of
in the result of the applied machine learning algorithms by several machine learning algorithms after applying dimension
measuring accuracy and F1-score metrics after using Select K- reduction methods and before applying any methods.
Best, Hashing Encoder, Feature Hasher, Sequential Feature This paper is organized as follows: general
Selector (SFS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) information presents comprehensive literature review
methods for feature selection, some differences have been regarding cross-selling and briefly discusses related works
obtained in either higher or lower accuracy scores. Reducing the published in the last 5 years. Material and methods section
number of attributes by using feature selection methods have contains the techniques and methodologies for cross-selling
been affected spending time while training models as predictions. In result section, predictions results of algorithms
improvement of the study.
have been revealed corresponding two classification metrics
and finally, discussion and conclusion part concludes the
Keywords— Machine Learning, Cross-Selling, Feature Selection, study and explains further ways to extend the study.
Dimensionality Reduction, Insurance
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
I. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE
In recent years, data became one of the most
In the past years, the total volume of created data is important assets for the companies, governments and any
significantly increased after electronic devices like mobile other institutions and these organizations aim to understand
phones and IoT devices became a part of our daily lives. customer’s purchase patterns and rule sets from the gathered
Existences of enormous amount of the data make financial data to maximize their profit through rearranging their
industries convenient by applying several techniques of data marketing campaigns according to these findings. Cross
analytics for reaching meaningful insights regarding their selling is a well-known technique which goal is to increase the
customers in order to use for decision-making. Machine institution’s profit by selling more related items in a single
learning approaches turn into one of the most popular ways to transaction. The fundamental basis of cross-selling is the fact
help companies to determine the possible clients who might that in order to offer more services or products while purchase
stop using the provided service (customer churn) at early transaction has not been completed yet. There are many
stages or detecting the appropriate customers for applying studies which demonstrate the real-life practices and their
cross-selling techniques to enhance the company’s profit. results after cross selling and up selling techniques on the
customers. As an example of up-selling might be selling a the experiment indicated that machine learning models that
computer which has better hardware requirements in online utilize ensemble-based techniques (Adaboost and Random
shopping or convincing the customer to have a credit card Forest) have reached the highest accuracy results which are
which has higher limit than the chosen card by the customer in over 96% while predicting the customers who the company
a bank. must target for cross-selling and other techniques to convince
The study of cross-selling and up-selling in a bank [2] them not to stop using the provided services.
is aimed to show the negative or positive impacts of cross- In our daily purchase routines, people tend to buy
selling applications on the customers by collecting the items together when these two or more items are related to
answers of a questionnaire that 150 people has taken part in. each other, for instance a mobile phone as the major item and
This technique can cause customer loss when it is applied a cover for the phone as the minor item that is associated with
wrong while expecting to maximize the profit in financial the major item and this can be described as the multi-item
companies such as banks or insurance companies and inventory management problem. There are various solutions
increasing the customer loyalty. According to results of the are proposed for solving the problem in recent decades in
survey’s open-ended questions regarding satisfaction as well order to increase the sale rates through cross-selling to
as age or education level, over 51% of the bank’s customers enhance the demand of selling related items. For the purpose
are not satisfied for buying products from cross-selling of the article [5], it was assumed that the sale of a major item
purchases because of misleading campaigns. When there is make impact on the demands for multiple minor items which
not much difference or not providing enough information is related with the fact of cross-selling. The authors mainly
about the price while cross-selling, these results cause focused on proving one of the algorithms which come up with
dissatisfaction of the customers. the assertion of multi-item inventory management problem is
Data mining is a term that explains the phases of a not an NP-hard as well as proposed polynomial algorithm that
journey which includes data collection, pre-processing, can be used for large-scale problems with advanced efficiency.
experiments and success metrics for finding hidden patterns Producing consistent recommendations to enhance
and relations in order to get relevant information for decision- profit by increasing the number of products to be sold through
making to enhance profit or reduce the costs for an institution. cross-selling strategies is critical for every organization and
A well-planned and organized data mining process is vital for various state-of-art techniques are used to create product-
having successful cross-selling marketing strategy for their product recommendations. A case study of recommendation in
current customers as explained in the study for pharmaceutical industry [6] found that graph-based
telecommunication customers. For the following study [3], convolutional neural networks to recommend a
878 telephone customer data that also contains missing values pharmaceutical product can be highly more effective than
in the attributes like name, zone and type of current customer traditional recommendations which are produced by a
have been collected and Naïve Bayes and C4.5 algorithm that pharmacist personally. In the study, PharmaSage which is a
prunes the created decision tree to reduce error rate in the test graph-based convolutional network algorithm has been
data are applied to detect and classify potential customers for developed by transforming the sales and pharmaceutical
cross-selling application. According to the accuracy metric in product datasets that contain features like indications and
order to evaluate the models that are created through collected adverse impacts of any drug into a graph while splitting the
customer data, C4.5 algorithm performed better accuracy data into training, validation and testing for successfully
which is 88.61% for detecting potential appropriate customers measuring the success of the recommendations. Furthermore,
for cross-selling strategies for the collected data. one method which based on probability theory has been
Recently, machine learning models became so proposed to prevent the problem of popularity bias to enhance
popular to get meaningful insights after data analysis and the quality of recommendations.
provide advantages for increasing the sales through several Continuously dealing with solving the challenges of
marketing techniques and reduce the rate of customers who cross-selling is the key point of performing effective
intend to unsubscribe services of the companies. The study [4] campaigns for increasing profit rates of any kind of
showed that in order to prevent customer churn rate, organizations. In addition to existing information regarding
understanding customer relationship in a few steps such as cross-selling strategies, the research is aimed to reveal the
creating segments for the customers who have similar challenges which haven’t been found yet specifically in
purchase behaviours is critical to enhance transactions with corporate banking industry through collecting data from
the help of techniques such as cross-selling and market basket interviews with the customers, arranging workshops and
analysis in order to minimize customer churn rate by ensuring analyzing cases [7]. According to the findings of the study,
more personalized offers, services and benefits. The main there are diverse conclusions in terms of customers for
purpose of the study [4] is that showing the impacts of applied instance; working with old employees resistant to change from
machine learning algorithms such as KNN, ANN, Random the existing system which is not sufficient to require customer
Forest and Support Vector Machine (SVM) for anticipating needs to provide better and improved services for cross-selling,
the customers who are expected to churn after following the lack of communication for information sharing in the bank
phases of required methods like data collection, data about the customers and using not state-of-art CRM systems
transformation, data cleaning and feature selection. Result of are just major issues to cope with in the banks.
Companies willing to ensure consistent correlated and related with customer’s lifetime duration,
recommendations to its customers on right time for increasing amount of spending and purchase rate and loyal customers are
customer loyalty and decreasing the possible customer churn willing to remain buying products from the same store in the
in advance. Recommendation through cross-selling can be future.
considered as many different aspects like classification of the Usage of customers’ data for being able to
possible customers who might buy more products or ranking understand demand of the customers and detect the potential
prediction of the customers. Cross-selling recommendation customers for successful cross-selling or any kind of
has been taken into account as a classification problem and a marketing practices in order to enhance for multiple product
collaborative ensemble learning method called multi-kernel sales can misconduct by the financial companies such as
support tensor machine (MK-STM) has been developed for insurance or banking. Obviously, cross-selling is important
cross-selling recommendations using multi-type multi-way and beneficial for the customers as well because buying more
data is the term that is used to represent the input data while than one item in a transaction may reduce the cost of buying
creating the model in this study [8]. In order to proof the the items separately unless the companies use the power of
impacts of the method which performs feature selection as cross-selling as the monopoly power among the other
well; various kinds of datasets have been used which contain competitors. The article [11] basically explains and reveals the
demographic, related product, similar customer and historical ways of using cross-selling in the finance industry and trying
promotion data where the demographic data are defined by a to find convenient solutions to prevent misusage of that under
matrix and the rest are represented by tensors. In conclusion, by law and regulations and two improper cross-selling usages
the proposed algorithm has reached better results than other of real-life scenarios have been explained as well. As
ensemble learning and methods that have been using for international misconduct examples, Payment Protection
cross-selling recommendations. Insurance (PPI) and Wells Fargo (WF), responses and
Online shopping has been significantly changed the regulations that have been taken by European and US
usual behaviour of people’s buying or selling products from Authorities have been expressed in order to demonstrate
physical shops personally and psychologically. Buyers are different aspect of cross-selling in banks.
willing to buy more products in order to get rid of paying Although cross-selling impacts are used mostly in
delivery cost or any extra other charge and online retailers are any financial organizations, these strategies can be applied in
tend to sell more products to the customers by using the cross- any kind of business as explained in the article [12] that
selling opportunities while deciding the amount of discounts. reveals a real-life example of home video industry in the US.
The authors of the following study [9] propose a mathematical Mainly, the study tries to indicate the impacts on sales of
model in order to answer research questions in order to have some cross-selling approaches like bundling, drafting or
better understanding about the impacts of price discounting quantity forcing with respect to movie demand for identifying
strategies for the online product sellers and the traffic correlation, causality and statistical significance of old movie
generators of cross-sold products. In order to test the demand due to similar cast or director and the sales of
hypotheses, three different datasets are collected and linear different movies by through the distributor. The main aim is
regression, vector auto regression (VAR) and sample t-test that in order to indicate the sales are somehow linked each
methods have been applied for that purpose. Offered model is other by using OLS methods after offering an assumption
promising for maximizing the profit for online sellers and which relies on just the credits of the movie as well as not
have proven through probability and cumulative distribution association identity to prevent the bias which can have impact
functions (CDF and PDF) after changing the model’s of the regression task. In conclusion, founded estimates from
parameters. the proposal were appropriate in terms of statistical
There are plenty different reasons that influence significance of the cross-selling impacts for the customers.
potential targeted people for cross-selling methods such as In order to enhance successful cross-selling strategies
socio-demographics or psychographics of the buyer and these for increased sale numbers and customer loyalty, many
make impact on the buyer’s behaviour while buying additional various approaches have been proposed such as segmenting
products. In daily life, intuitively, people mostly tend to buy the customers who have similar buying patterns, market
from the places that they have already bought something basket analysis or revealing customer similarities with respect
before due to the familiarity and in order to prove these claims to traditional RFM (recency, frequency, monetary) models to
based on a study which ensures the relationship between produce recommendations. However, all these strategies have
customer lifetime value (CLV) and cross-buying, the authors issues while dealing with different problems for instance;
examine cross-selling impacts in terms of purchase rate, customer segmentation is not suitable for big data solutions
lifetime duration and spending by using collected purchase due to high computational cost or market basket analysis
history data of the customers from an online shopping mall in outcomes might produce misleading too general rules not to
Japan [10]. In order to prove the hypotheses, three different cover important segments. For the purpose of the related
models whose parameters are estimated by hierarchical Bayes article [13] is that in order to detect communities in terms of
multivariate regression coefficients have been proposed for customer-product relationship in bipartite graph through the
explaining store royalty and cross-buying relationship. The algorithm named Louvain which aims to maximize buying
results of the study demonstrated that cross-selling is highly similarity patterns for both products and customers in the
clusters and the algorithm has been applied on the dataset that 3.1 Exploratory Data Analysis
contains 773,999 sale transactions with 21 attributes. The
3.1.1 Dataset Features
results have proved that the Louvain algorithm performed well
in terms of reduced computational time and better solutions in The attributes of the dataset as shown in Table 3.1. :
order to detect the communities that cross-selling approaches
can be applied to reach higher response rates of the
recommended products which is showed to the customers that
located in the same clusters.
Revealing the customer’s purchase behaviour pattern
from the stored transactions can be very beneficial for
managing cross-selling and up-selling methods in any kind of
sale platform either online or physical stores and there are
several approaches data mining techniques such as association
analysis that can produce recommendations for the marketing
campaigns. The desired purpose of the article [14] is that in
order to demonstrate usage of association analysis that is used
finding the relationship of frequent items based on confidence
and support values through algorithms called FP-Growth
which is based on tree construction while showing the
frequent items and Association Rule Mining that is used for
defining associative rules in terms of support and confidence
requirements are used for deciding cross-selling campaigns by
using RapidMiner. As conclusion, support and confidence
levels of association rules of the items in the dataset such as
printer, keyboard and connector have been revealed based on
the results of applied algorithms in order to determine cross-
validation items for marketing.
After increased usage of data for detecting potential
customers for cross-selling applications, competitions among
Table 3.1. Attributes, Descriptions and Data Types of the Dataset
insurance companies have been reasonably increased to find
the customers who most likely to remain as a loyal purchaser
The features as shown in Table 3.1. can be grouped
of the company. The research [15] that has been aimed for
into two diverse parts and examine accordingly:
understanding how to keep the existing customers in efficient
continuous features as Age, Annual_Premium, Vintage
ways, the main purpose is in order to demonstrate the impacts
and discrete (categorical) features as Response,
of characteristics of the customer for cross-selling by showing
Vehicle_Age, Vehicle_Damage, Driving_License,
the use case of one of the largest Swiss insurance company. 14
Previously_Insured, Region_Code and
different hypotheses and assumptions have been formulated in
PolicySalesChannel. There are no missing values in the
order to reveal the impacts of the customers’ features on
dataset as shown in Figure 3.1. :
cross-selling using several methods such as descriptive
statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), x2 test and logistic
regression in order to confirm or reject of these hypotheses.
According to the findings, most of the hypotheses have been
approved from the statistical tests and models that have been
created on the dataset consist of features like age, residence
information and number of damages. Therefore, from the
analysis, some of the columns are remarkably effective for the
customers’ cross-buying behaviour such as age, the number of
damages and residence area that have been proved by
observed p-values smaller than 0.1%.
In the dataset that consist of randomly selected 3000 3.2. Data Pre-processing
samples, 1675 of these policyholders have never taken Data pre-processing is vital in order to transform raw
vehicle insurance, on the contrary, 1325 of them already data into the format that is appropriate for gathering
purchased vehicle insurance before. 22% of the meaningful insights from data analysis and modelling
customers who haven’t previously insured before have for future predictions. In the study, data pre-processing
confirmed to buy vehicle insurance and can be seen phase includes two main steps respectively named data
from the Figure 3.11. as expected, the customers who transformation where one-hot encoding, min-max
already has vehicle insurance only 0.002% of them have scaling and oversampling methods are applied and
accepted for another vehicle insurance. After the feature selection methods like Select K-Best or Hashing
analysis, it’s clear that Vehicle_Damage is a good Encoder in order to choose the most appropriate
indicator of vehicle insurance cross-selling campaigns. features of the dataset to use while modelling.
IV. RESULTS
In order to ensure trustworthy and easily
interpretable classification results of detecting the
appropriate customers for performing cross-selling Figure 4.1. ROC Curve Analysis Results of Base Models
campaigns, seven various classification algorithms are
applied on the dataset where no feature selection Table 4.2 demonstrates the results of machine
methods have been applied while developing machine learning models that have been created after feature
learning models. While interpreting the test dataset hashing feature selection method applied for
results for base models without any applied feature classification of customers. In contrast to base machine
selection methods or other models that have been learning models, there are significant improvements in
created after applying feature selection methods, 5-Fold models that Logistic Regression and Support Vector
cross-validated accuracy and F1 score metrics have Classifier algorithms are used. Similarly as in the base
been used to measure the success of the models. In models, Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron
Table 4.1, the results of base machine learning models algorithms have performed well in terms of accuracy
for classification are represented and accordingly, and F1 score metrics.
Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron have
performed the highest accuracy and F1 score among
other five algorithms.
Differently than the base models and the ones that
have been created after Feature Hashing feature
selection method applied, K-Nearest Neighbours
algorithm performed the highest F1 score after Select
K-Best method. From the results, it can be said that
Select K-Best feature selection method works better
through non-parametric machine learning algorithms as
shown in Figure 4.3.
Figure 4.4. F1 Score Comparison of the Models (Hashing Encoder V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
Applied)
This study is aimed to present comparable results of
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used as a machine learning algorithms in order to classify the
technique of dimension reduction to represent the samples in terms of appropriateness for cross-selling
features of the dataset that contains 130 columns by marketing campaigns. There are various pre-processing
principal components. The aim of applying PCA is to methods have been performed before developing the
maximize explained variance ratio by choosing the models such as encoding, scaling and oversampling for
correct number of components. In the study, three dealing with unbalanced feature which is predicted by
principal components have created to demonstrate total the models. Essentially, the main concern of the study is
variance and by using the components, 100% total that revealing the impacts of feature selection methods
variance explained as shown in the Figure 4.5. on accuracy and F1 score classification metrics of the
models that have been created before and after applying
these methods. In order to investigate this concern, 7
different state-of-art machine learning algorithms have
been applied after completing the necessary data pre-
processing implementations and the results of the base
models are collected. Furthermore, 4 different feature
selection methods and 1 dimension reduction technique
have been applied to see the difference of the
classification metrics between the base models and the
models that feature selection method have been applied
at. Accordingly, the algorithms performed differently
from each other with respect to applied feature selection
method. However, training time of the models after
Figure 4.5. Principal Components of the Dataset in 3D selecting the appropriate number of features by using
the feature selection methods have been reduced
Lastly, Sequential Feature Selector (SFS) is applied dramatically. This study can be extended by using
to see the impacts of using the chosen features while hyperparameter optimization techniques in order to find
modelling in terms of accuracy and F1 score. Because the best parameters for each model to be able to use
of having 130 features in the dataset after all data pre- these with while creating new models after feature
processing phases, only 5 best features have been selection methods applied. Lastly, 3000 samples have
selected by SFS and develop machine learning models been randomly chosen from the dataset and the number
with Driving_License, Previously_Insured, of the samples can be increased as well.
Vehicle_Damage_is_Yes, Vehicle_Age_is_> 2 Years
and Policy_Sales_Channel_is_111.0 features. Besides,
all of the models have reached similar 5-Fold cross-
validated accuracy score so that only Figure 4.6
demonstrates the accuracy performance of K-Nearest
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