Batch: C1 The opportunities, challenges and risks associated with a more orderly energy transition are not evenly distributed around the world. Some countries may rely on greater financial resources or natural resources, and not all economies are equally equipped to meet the challenge of transforming their energy structures. It is therefore useful to identify the main archetypes or groups into which countries can fit in the context of the energy transition as well as the corresponding opportunities and challenges. Considerations of affordability and resilience will shape each country's ability to achieve a more orderly transition. The following three factors are essential to understanding each country's capacity to make the transition. The first two issues are related to energy resilience, while the third issue is related to energy affordability. The country's short-term economic dependence on energy imports and emissions-intensive industries. Some countries rely on imported energy, often fossil fuels, to ensure energy security. These include several European countries, including Germany, which are affected by their heavy dependence on imported fuel, as well as India and China, which represent the world's largest population centers and have both high energy demand and very polluted energy consumption profile. The country has favorable access to natural resources. Some countries have limited natural national potential to develop clean energy, such as the amount of sunlight or wind needed, land suitable for new projects, or abundant mineral reserves such as copper and nickel, essential for the energy transition. The country's financial resources available and ability to mobilize capital to support the energy transition. According to estimates in our January 2022 report on the transition to net zero emissions, the transition to net zero emissions will require between $1 trillion and $3. 5 trillion USD average annual additional investment globally through 2050. Renewable energy and grid improvements require initial capital investment. These capital investments will deliver results over varying time periods in the form of reduced operating costs and improved resilience and energy costs. The transition will also require investments to address the cost of being stuck in fossil fuel assets, conduct large-scale R&D, retrain the workforce, provide a safety net for vulnerable groups vulnerability and fund early-stage infrastructure deployment to initiate the “learning curve” effect. The richest and least wealthy countries now face budget constraints, but the richest and least wealthy countries now have more resources and face fewer compromises more to make these investments.
The five arche types:
Based on the examination of these three dimensions, we have defined five main archetypes of countries that face similar challenges and opportunities in the net-zero transition (Exhibits 3 and 4). While each country is different, we believe these archetypes lend themselves to similar sets of actions and priorities for a more orderly energy transition. This categorization of countries reveals that the burdens of the energy transition, and each region’s ability to meet the challenges of adaptation and mitigation, will not be evenly distributed. Moreover, global cooperation and coordinated collective action beyond current levels will be needed: for example, while significant progress has been made in mobilizing public and private financing for developing countries, OECD analysis indicates that the $100 billion target for 2020, set at COP15 in Copenhagen, was likely not met.3 The pathway to mobilizing global financial flows from more affluent to more at-risk countries is still unknown, but our analysis indicates that developing countries can benefit from readily available solutions such as abatement and avoidance of coal expansion or methane emissions, which increased financing flows can catalyze. Similarly, affluent countries would benefit from greater availability of critical natural resources from developing countries, which would require investment in the sustainable extraction and processing of these resources.