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Open Economy
Open Economy
Open Economy
An economy can be of two types, open and closed. An economy that does not
interact with other economies in the world is called a Closed Economy. There
are no exports, no imports, no capital flows. Open Economy, on the other
hand, is an economy that interacts freely with other economies around the
world. It interacts with other countries in two ways,- (i) by buying and
selling goods and services in world product markets, and (ii) by buying and
selling capital assets in world financial markets.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
BOP account of a country of a given year records all the payments made by
foreigners to domestic economic agents and all the payments made by domestic
economic agents to foreigners in the given year. It has two sides, a debit
side and a credit side. All the payments made by foreigners to domestic
economic agents are recorded on the credit side, while all the payments made
by domestic economic agents to foreigners are recorded on the debit side.
So, the BOP account is divided into two segments, viz. current account and
capital account.
The first three kinds of transactions, (i), (ii) and (iii), with the
foreigners, which have no direct bearing on the future receipts from and
payments to foreigners of the domestic economy, are recorded by the Current
Account.
The transactions that have direct bearing on the future receipts from and
payments to foreigners of the domestic economy, i.e. the transactions listed
against (iv), above, are recorded in the Capital Account.
Adding all the credit items and subtracting all the debit items in the
current account yields a number called the current account balance.
If the current account balance is positive, i.e. if the sum of the items on
the credit side of the current account exceeds the sum of the items on its
debit side, the excess of the former over the latter is referred to as
current account surplus. In the opposite case, when current account balance
is negetive, the excess of the sum of the items on the debit side over the
sum of the items on the credit side is referred to as current account
deficit.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CURRENT ACCOUNT AND THE CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL
ACCOUNT - BALANCE OF PAYMENT ACCOUNTS
The sum total of the debit items and that of the credit items, taking the
current account and the capital account together in the BOP account, has a
specific relation, i.e. the two sides are always equal. But how ?
Domestic economic agents are the only source of domestic currency to the
foreigners, while foreigners are the only source of foreign exchange to the
domestic economic agents. Receipts from foreigners, mean sale of foreign
exchange for domestic currency, while payments to foreigners mean purchase
of foreign currency with domestic currency. If the total of payments to
foreigners in a given period exceeds the total of receipts from foreigners,
it means that domestic economic agents in the given period have purchased
more foreign exchange with domestic currency than what the foreigners have
sold for domestic currency. Clearly, that is impossible since foreigners are
the only source of foreign exchange to the domestic economic agents. For
similar reasons, total payments to foreigners cannot be less than the total
of receipts from foreigners either. This means that, if there is a surplus
on the current account, there is an exactly equal amount of deficit on the
capital account and vice versa.
Balance of Payment Accounts is basically the sum of current and capital
accounts, which means the difference between the receipts from and payment
to foreigners by residents of a country. Now, BOP always balances, which
implies that credit and debit side must equal each other and so is for the
case of payments and receipts. This can only only happen when BOP is in
equilibrium, that is when,-
BOP = 0
Again, BOP = CA + KA
= R - P
Where, CA = current accounts
KA = capital accounts
R = Receipts
P = Payments
So, as , in each period the current account balance and the capital and
financial account balance must sum to zero, in order that BOP balances,
hence,-
CA + KA = 0
So, when BOP = 0, balance of payment is in equilibrium. When BOP>0, there is
favourable balance of payments; When BOP<0, there is unfavourable or adverse
balance of payments. When there is a surplus or a deficit in balance of
payments there is said to be disequilibrium in balance of payments. Thus
disequilibrium refers to imbalance in balance of payments.
In reality BOP may not balance, due to errors and omissions. Errors may be
due to statistical discrepancies (differences) and omissions may be due to
certain transactions may not get recorded. The amount that would have to be
added to the sum of the current account and the capital and financial
account balances for this sum to reach its theoretical value of zero is
called the statistical discrepancy.
Well, at this point, the central bank of every country, which carries a
stock of foreign exchange, plays an important role here. Exchange rate of a
foreign currency means the price of the foreign currency in terms of the
domestic currency. Every foreign currency has an exchange rate. The central
bank often buys foreign exchange with domestic currency or sells foreign
exchange for domestic currency in the foreign exchange market to keep the
exchange rates stable.
Suppose that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants to keep the exchange rate
of dollar at 40/-. If at this exchange rate there is excess demand for
dollar, i.e. if at this exchange rate domestic economic agents want to buy
more dollar with rupee than what the US residents want to sell for rupee,
exchange rate will rise. The RBI can prevent the rise of the exchange rate
of dollar by selling dollar for rupee from its foreign exchange reserve.
Similarly, if there is excess supply of dollar, i.e. if the US residents
want to sell more dollar for rupee than what the Indian residents want to
buy, the exchange rate tends to fall. The RBI can stop this decline by
buying the excess supply of dollar with rupee and adding it to its foreign
exchange reserve.
Hence, when the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market, the
total of the items on the debit side in the current and capital account
taken together may exceed (fall short of) that on the credit side, i.e.
there may be a BOP deficit (surplus) taking the current and capital account
together. But in that case, the foreign exchange reserve of the central bank
will fall (rise) exactly by an equal amount.
In a country where the central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange
market, there is a third segment in the BOP account. This is referred to as
the official settlement account. In this account a fall in the central
bank’s foreign exchange reserve is recorded on the credit side, while
addition to the central bank’s foreign exchange reserve is recorded on the
debit side. Thus, if there is an overall deficit (surplus) on the current
and capital account taken together, there should be an equal amount of
surplus (deficit) on the official settlement account.
So, we may say that,-
CA + KA + OS = BOP
And when BOP balances that is its in equilibrium, then,-
BOP = 0
=> CA + KA + OS = 0
Recording of receipts from and payments to foreigners may involve errors and
omissions. Thus, if there occurs any discrepancy between change in RBI’s
foreign exchange reserve and the overall balance, taking the current and the
capital account together, the discrepancy is recorded as “errors and
omissions” so that the sum of the items on the credit side and that on the
debit side become equal, when all the three segments are considered
together.
Exports are domestically produced goods and services that are sold abroad,
and imports are foreign-produced goods and services that are sold
domestically. Net Exports (NX) is the value of a nation’s exports minus the
value of its imports, i.e.,-
Net exports = Value of country’s exports – Value of country’s imports
Because net exports tell us whether a country is, in total, a seller or a
buyer in world markets for goods and services, net exports are also called
the trade balance.
If net exports are positive ( NX > 0 ), exports are greater than imports ( X
> M ), indicating that the country sells more goods and services abroad than
it buys from other countries. In this case, the country is said to run a
trade surplus.
If net exports are negative ( NX < 0 ), exports are less than imports
( X < M ), indicating that the country sells fewer goods and services abroad
than it buys from other countries. In this case, the country is said to run
a trade deficit.
If net exports are zero ( NX = 0 ), its exports and imports are exactly
equal ( X = M ), and the country is said to have balanced trade.
Factors that affect Net Exports are :
a. The tastes of consumers for domestic and foreign goods.
b. The prices of goods at home and abroad
c. The exchange rates at which people can use domestic currency to buy
foreign currencies
d. The incomes of consumers at home and abroad
e. The cost of transporting goods from country to country
f. Government policies toward international trade
Net exports and net capital outflow each measure a type of imbalance in a
world market. Net exports measure the imbalance between a country’s exports
and imports in world markets for goods and services. Net capital outflow
measures the imbalance between the amount of foreign assets bought by
domestic residents and the amount of domestic assets bought by foreigners in
world financial markets.
For an economy, net exports must be equal to net capital outflow.
NCO = NX
This equation holds because every transaction that affects one side of this
equation affects the other side by exactly the same amount. This equation is
an identity— an equation that must hold because of the way the variables in
the equation are defined and measured.
To see why this accounting identity is true, let’s consider an example. You
are a computer programmer who sells some software to a Japanese consumer for
10,000 yen. The sale is an export for the United States so net exports
increases. There are several things you could do with the 10,000 yen. You
could hold the yen (which is a Japanese asset) or use it to purchase another
Japanese asset. Either way, net capital outflow rises. Alternatively, you
could use the yen to purchase a Japanese good. Thus, imports will rise so
the net effect on net exports will be zero. One final possibility is that
you could exchange the yen for dollars at a bank. This does not change the
situation though, because the bank then must use the yen for something.
This example can be generalized to the economy as a whole,-
a. When a nation is running a trade surplus (NX > 0), it must be using
the foreign currency to purchase foreign assets. Thus, capital is flowing
out of the country (NCO > 0).
b. When a nation is running a trade deficit (NX < 0), it must be financing
the net purchase of these goods by selling assets abroad. Thus, capital is
flowing into the country (NCO < 0).
Every international transaction involves exchange. When a seller country
transfers a good or service to a buyer country, the buyer country gives up
some asset to pay for the good or service. Thus, the net value of the goods
and services sold by a country (net exports) must equal the net value of the
assets acquired (net capital outflow).
Actual economies are open economies—that is, they interact with other
economies around the world. So, here, GDP constitutes of all the four
components :
Y = C + G + I + NX
From here, we can write Net Exports as :
NX = Y - C - G - I
Now we know that, National Savings (S) is defined as the total income in the
economy that remains after paying for consumption and government purchases
i.e. (Y – C – G ). So, we can substitute S in the previous equation :
NX = S - I
Now, this relation is somehow related to capital inflows and outflows.
Capital Inflows mean that foreigners are taking capital into our country ti
buy assets in our country, while on the other hand, Capital Outflows mean
that residents of our country are taking capital out of the country and
buying foreign assets in other countries. Now according to the last
equation, we save some and we spend some of that savings in investment. So
the rest of the savings that is the difference between S and I must go out
of the country. If it were spent inside the country, then it would’ve been
a part of I. So this difference is called Net Capital Outflow (NCO). So,
NX = NCO
Now, suppose NX are positive. That means more foreigners are buying our
goods and we are buying their goods. Now they pay for these goods by selling
their foreign assets to people of our country. Hence people of our country
buy foreign assets so that foreigners can buy our goods.
Now, we can also write
S - NX = I
Now, it can also be said that nation’s saving must equal its domestic
investment plus its net capital outflow, i.e.,-
S = I + NX
or, S = I + NCO
So, in other words, when Indian citizens save a rupee of their income for
the future, that rupee can be used to finance accumulation of domestic
capital or it can be used to finance the purchase of capital abroad.
Hence, the main point is that, saving, investment, and international capital
flows are inextricably linked. When a nation’s saving exceeds its domestic
investment, its net capital outflow is positive, indicating that the nation
is using some of its saving to buy assets abroad. When a nation’s domestic
investment exceeds its saving, its net capital outflow is negative,
indicating that foreigners are financing some of this investment by
purchasing domestic assets.
[ Now, if NX = NCO, then negetive of NX i.e. (-NX) would be Net Capital
Inflows. So, we can say :
S + Net Capital Inflows = I
This means that whatever investment happens in our country, its either
coming from the savings or the Net Capital Inflows that is the capital
brought by foreigners in our country. ]
So, from the international flow of goods and capital, its clear that there
are three possible outcomes for an open economy, viz., a country with a
trade deficit, a country with balanced trade, or a country with a trade
surplus.
By definition,-
1. A trade surplus means that the value of exports exceeds the value of
imports. Because net exports are exports minus imports, net exports NX are
greater than zero. As a result, income Y = C + I + G + NX must be greater
than domestic spending C + I + G. But if income Y is more than spending C +
I + G, then saving S = Y – C – G must be more than investment I. Because
the country is saving more than it is investing, it must be sending some of
its saving abroad. That is, the net capital outflow must be greater than
zero.
2. A trade deficit means that the value of exports is less than the
value of imports. Because net exports are exports minus imports, net exports
NX are negative. Thus, income Y = C + I + G + NX must be less than domestic
spending C + I + G. But if income Y is less than spending C + I + G, then
saving S = Y – C – G must be less than investment I. Because the country
is investing more than it is saving, it must be financing some domestic
investment by selling assets abroad. That is, the net capital outflow must
be negative.
3. A balanced trade means that the value of exports is equal to the
value of imports. Because net exports are exports minus imports, net exports
NX are 0. Thus, income Y = C + I + G + 0 must be equal to domestic spending
C + I + G. But if income Y is equal to spending C + I + G, then saving S = Y
– C – G must be equal to investment I. Because the country is investing
same as it is saving, it doesn’t need to finance any domestic investment by
selling assets abroad. That is, the net capital outflow is 0.
EXCHANGE RATE
The nominal exchange rate is the rate at which a person can trade the
currency of one country for the currency of another. For example, if you go
to a bank, you might see a posted exchange rate of 81 rupees per dollar. An
exchange rate can always be expressed in two ways. If the exchange rate is
81 rupees per dollar, it is also 1/81 (= 0.0123) dollar per rupee.
The dollar–rupee exchange rate isn’t constant. The dollar might trade for
81/- one day, but the next day it might rise in value to 92/- or fall in
value to 75/-. Such changes in the exchange rate are normal under a
flexible-exchange-rate system, the type of system in which many of the
world’s major currencies (including the dollar and the yen) are currently
traded. In a flexible-exchange-rate system, or floating-exchange-rate
system, exchange rates are not officially fixed but are determined by
conditions of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Under a
flexible-exchange-rate system, exchange rates move continuously and respond
quickly to any economic or political news that might influence the supplies
and demands for various currencies.
Although no worldwide system of fixed exchange rates currently exists, fixed
exchange rates haven’t disappeared entirely. Many individual countries,
especially smaller ones, attempt to fix their exchange rates against a major
currency.
When Nominal Exchange Rate increases, it means that a dollar is now equal to
more rupees, i.e. it takes more rupees to purchase a dollar now, hence
making a rupee less valuable with respect to dollar, thus causing
Depreciation of the Currency.
Now, conversely, when Nominal Exchange Rate decreases, it means that a
dollar is now equal to less rupees, i.e. it takes less rupees to purchase a
dollar now, hence making a rupee more valuable with respect to dollar, thus
causing Appreciation of the Currency.
Depreciation and appreciation happens with regard to perfectly floating or
flexible exchange rates.
When e remains fixed and government by policy increases e, its called
Devaluation, which is a policy tool. But depreciation isn’t. Depreciation
basically means, following any change in the international market, our
exchange rate changes.