Gestión

fiscal
estratégica
del Cambio
climático
Module 1: The climate crisis: Causes, impacts and the
global framework to confront it

The climate crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean

Content

Climate change, causes and Climate events and how they impact
evidence Latin America and the Caribbean:

 Climate change and its causes  Types of climate events

 The evidence of climate change  Climate change impacts

 Vulnerability to climate change

 Socioeconomic impacts of climate

events
Theme 1: Climate change and its
causes
Climate change and its causes

Climate change refers to long-term variations in

temperature and global weather patterns, which
occur due to natural or man-made causes.

Scientific evidence demonstrates that since the

industrial revolution human activity has been the
main source of these changes due to the
significant increase in the concentration of gases in
the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and others.

The increase in the concentration of these gases

hinders heat dissipation, which results in the
increase in global average temperature or what is
known as the "greenhouse effect".
Increase in the global atmospheric concentration of CO2

Source: Our World in Data (2023)

Greenhouse gases (GHG)

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) come from the production of all

goods and services associated with fossil fuel use, emissions
from industrial processes, waste treatment and agriculture and
land-use change.

Land-use change, due to deforestation and mangrove

destruction for example, destroys natural capacities to absorb
GHGs.
 GHG emissions by sector in Latin America and the
Caribbean (LAC) and the world
Share of sectors in greenhouse gas emissions, 2016
(in percentages)

The region contributes less than 10%

of total global greenhouse gas
emissions.

Latin America's per capita CO2

emissions are close to the global
average and account for about
1/3 of the emissions of Europe or the
United States.

Source: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la

base de J. Gütschow y otros, “The PRIMAP-hist national historic emissions time
series”. Earth System Science Data, vol. 8, Nro. 2, Göttingen, Copernicus
Publications, 2016 y FAOSTAT.
 The evidence of climate change
The main evidence of climate change are:
Global warming
The global temperature has already
risen 1.1°C since pre-industrial times
(IPCC, 2021).
The last seven years have been the
warmest (WMO, 2022).
Projections indicate that it will continue
to rise at least until mid-century.
Ocean warming
In 2021, the heat content of the
oceans reached unprecedented levels
and is estimated to continue to rise in
the future causing irreversible changes
for thousands of years (WMO, 2022).
Ocean acidification and coral
bleaching
Ocean acidification has increased at
an unprecedented rate (IPCC, 2022)
due to the absorption of CO2
emissions, causing coral reef
bleaching and threatening organisms
and ecosystems (WMO, 2022).
Graphic of global temperature change (1850-2017)

View graphic online

Graphic of temperature change by country (1880-2017)

View graphic online

 Four key messages on climate change, its causes and
evidence

1 2 3 4

Scientific evidence The main cause of The global The rate of

unequivocally global warming is temperature has temperature increase
identifies human greenhouse gas already risen by 1.1°C in Latin America and
influence on climate (GHG) emissions since pre-industrial the Caribbean (LAC)
change. produced by human times. is higher than the
activities, primarily the global average.
burning of fossil fuels
and land-use
change.
Theme 2: Climate events and
how they impact Latin America
and the Caribbean
Climate events and how they impact Latin America and
the Caribbean
Climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme
events, has caused widespread adverse impacts as well as losses and
damages related to nature and people beyond natural climate
variability.

Extreme weather events are occurring simultaneously, causing

cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to manage.

The economic and social impacts of climate change are unevenly

distributed, affecting the poorest segment of the population and
sectors that rely most directly on climate stability, such as agriculture.

(IPCC, 2022)

IPCC Summary for Policy Makers Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability
 Types of climate events

Climate events manifest themselves in a variety of ways and have the potential to
generate significant socioeconomic impacts.

Meteorological Climatological Hydrological

Events of short duration caused by Events caused by long-lasting Events caused by the occurrence,
extreme climate and atmospheric atmospheric processes. movement, and distribution of surface
conditions. Examples: droughts and natural fires. and groundwater.
Examples: storms and heat waves. Examples: landslides and floods.

Climate events have caused the loss of hundreds of lives, severe damage across multiple sectors, population
displacement and economic losses.
Adverse economic impacts attributable to climate change are increasing.
 Vulnerability and level of preparedness to climate events

Climate events cause major impacts due to the vulnerability and level of
preparedness of countries to climate change.
Vulnerability Index Readiness Index

Source: University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation

Index, 2019
Climate change impacts

Increasing heat waves, droughts and

floods are exceeding plant and
animal tolerance thresholds causing:
 Mass death of species such as trees
and corals.
 The exposure of human groups and
the natural world to intolerable and
irreversible risks beyond their limits of
adaptation.
(IPCC, 2022)
 Climate change impacts (continued)

Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in

contexts highly vulnerable to climate change.

A high proportion of species are vulnerable to

climate change.

People's health, lives and livelihoods, as well

as critical assets and infrastructure, including
energy and transport systems, are increasingly
affected.

(IPCC, 2022)
Vulnerability to climate change

Latin America and the Caribbean is a

region vulnerable to the occurrence of
climate events of high intensity, frequency
and duration, especially due to its low level
of preparedness and adaptation.

Climate change and extreme events

strongly impact the region and are
expected to intensify.

(IPCC, 2022)
People affected by climate events in LAC (1981-2020)
Countries Flood Landslide Storms Droughts Total
Argentina 14.093.802 35.030 44.748 35.032 14.208.612
Bahamas 1.000 0 53.850 0 54.850
Bolivia 3.612.587 182.053 18.740 4.637.744 8.451.124
Brazil 16.271.017 238.614 238.964 63.812.000 80.560.595
Chile 1.228.667 82.983 397.679 0 1.709.329
Colombia 11.127.388 74.978 417.132 100.000 11.719.498
Costa Rica 746.730 200 1.010.836 0 1.757.766
Ecuador 1.770.813 81.745 0 144.665 1.997.223
Guatemala 1.101.559 55.091 4.026.000 5.753.081 10.935.731
Guyana 650.048 0 0 607.200 1.257.248
Honduras 1.753.000 1.753.000 7.512.454 1.517.335 12.535.789
Mexico 4.557.748 320 7.643.113 2.565.000 14.766.181
Paraguay 1.756.727 0 148.057 1.777.890 3.682.674
Peru 5.625.146 777.219 667.412 3.321.500 10.391.277
Dominican Republic 4.357.965 0 1.357.497 0 5.715.462
Suriname 31.548 0 0 0 31.548
Total 68.685.745 3.281.233 23.536.482 84.271.447 179.774.907

Source: Climate Knowledge Portal – World Bank: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank

 Small Island Developing States in the Caribbean are
increasingly affected by climate change

Small Island Developing States in the

Caribbean are increasingly affected by:
 More intense hurricanes
 Storm surges
 Droughts
 Changes in precipitation patterns
 Sea-level rise
 Coral bleaching
(IPCC, 2022)
Conditions that amplify the LAC region's vulnerability to
climate change

The dire situation in the LAC region is amplified by:

 Inequality and poverty
 Population growth and high population density
 Land-use change, particularly deforestation with
consequent loss of biodiversity and land
degradation
 High dependence on natural resources and lack
of progress in adaptation
(IPCC, 2022)
 Socioeconomic impacts of climate events

The economy of the region is impacted by factors derived from climate change including:
• Exposure to risks generated by the occurrence of climate events
• Infrastructure that is placed out of service due to climate impacts
Socioeconomic impacts of exposure to climate change
risks

The exposure to risks generated by the occurrence of climate events, as well as

infrastructure and services that are rendered inoperable, causes socioeconomic
impacts, specifically relevant in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Some regional examples of these impacts are:

Migration and displacement Work and loss of income Food insecurity

Migration and displacement

The Andes, northeastern Brazil and northern Central American

countries are among the regions most sensitive to climate-driven
migration and displacement, exacerbating social, economic and
environmental problems.

The number of internal climate migrants

Increase in climate-related migration
could exceed 17 million in Latin America
and displacement in the period from
by 2050 affecting the poorest countries
2014-2022(IPCC, 2022)
(World Bank, 2018)
Work and loss of income

Rising temperatures and heat waves are already a threat to

working conditions. Heat stress particularly affects people who work
outdoors in agriculture, construction and street vending.

Loss of 2.5 million full-time
jobs in LAC
(Kjellstrom et al., 2019)
resulting in loss of labor
income
South America to see the
largest decline in full-time
workers (1.6 million)
(IDB, 2020)
Central America and Mexico
will lose about 800,000 jobs.
In the Caribbean, 100,000
jobs will be lost
(IDB, 2020)
Food insecurity

Millions of people in the region, especially the poorest, are exposed

to severe food insecurity due to the impact of climate change on
food production and availability (IPCC, 2022).

Food insecurity Cereal prices are projected to

increase up to 29% by 2050
7.7 million people affected (IPCC, 2022).
(Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua)
(IPCC, 2022).
Economic damages from the intensification of climate
events

The intensification of climate events is

causing economic damage that Factors associated with climate change that
could be more intense in the future. would impact GDP in the region

It is estimated that by 2050, the  Sum of agricultural losses and hydroelectric

generation
economic cost of climate change in
the region will represent between 1.5%  Increased disease transmission
and 5% of the regional gross domestic
 Extreme weather events
product (GDP) measured in current
prices (ECLAC, 2020).
There is no time to lose.
To avoid further economic damage and the increasing loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, ambitious and
accelerated action is needed to adapt to climate change, while rapidly and deeply reducing greenhouse gas
emissions.
 Five key messages about climate events and how they
impact the region

Climate events have

affected millions of people
1 Latin America and the
3 in the region and have 5
Caribbean is vulnerable to caused economic
climate change due to its damage in multiple
low preparedness to deal sectors and the
with extreme climate displacement of
events. populations

Climate change and Inequality, poverty, It is estimated that by

extreme events cause
widespread impacts,
losses and damages
affecting nature, the
economy and people,
beyond natural climate
variability.
deforestation and high 2050, the economic cost
dependence on natural of climate change in the
resources amplify the region will represent
severity of the region's between 1.5% and 5% of
situation. regional gross domestic
2 4 product (GDP).
References
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Photos
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