UNIT-2

UNIT-2
Crop Models
Crop Models
 What Is a Model?
Y It is a simplified description
(often, a mathematical representation)
of a system to assist
calculations and predictions.

In the present context, ‘model’ is expressed as a computer program that

can be repeatedly run several times for computing several designed
mathematical or statistical expressions (equations) governing crop
growth-environment relations, given appropriate input data.

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
 OTHER DEFINATIONS OF MODEL

** A model is a schematic representation of the conception of a system or an

act of mimicry or a set of equations, which represents the behaviour of a
system. Also, a model is “A representation of an object, system or idea in
some form other than that of the entity itself’. Its purpose is usually to aid
in explaining, understanding or improving performance of a system.

**A model is, by definition’: A simplified version of a part of reality, not a

one to one copy”. This simplification makes models useful because it offers
a comprehensive description of a problem situation.

*“* It is a difficult task to produce a comprehensible, operational

representation of a part of reality, which grasps the essential elements and
mechanisms of that real world system and even more demanding, when the
complex systems encountered in environmental management (Murthy,
SPERYDAS REDDY.K +
Crop-weather modeling, firstly u
“BAIER” in 1979, refers to the techniq
can be used to determine the likely e
weather on crop, its growth & prod

According to USDA( 2007), crop model

computer programs that mimic the growth
development of crops .

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
• Efficient
Efficient crop
crop production
production technology
technology is is based
based on
on a a right
right
decision
decision at at right
right time
time in
in a
a right
right way.
way.
• Traditionally
Traditionally crop
crop production
production functions
functions were
were derived
derived from
from
conventional
conventional experienced
experienced basebase agronomic
agronomic research
research
• Where
Where crop
crop yield
yield were
were related
related toto some
some defined
defined variable
variable _
based
based onon correlation
correlation and
and regression
regression oror regression
regression analysis.
analysis.

• Agriculture
Agriculture models
models are,
are, however,
however, only
only crude
crude
representations of
representations of the
the real
real systems
systems
• Incomplete
Incomplete knowledge
knowledge resulting
resulting from
from the
the inherent
inherent
complexity of
complexity of the
the systems.
systems.
• Judicious
Judicious use
use of
of such
such model
model is is possible
possible only
only if
if the
the user
user
has
nas aa sound
sound understanding
understanding of of model
model structure,
structure, scope
scope and
and
limitation.
imitation.
 Models in
Models in agriculture
agriculture
•- Agricultural
Agricultural models
models are are mathematical
mathematical equationsequations that that
represent
represent the the reactions
reactions thatthat occur
occur within
within the the plant
plant and
and
the
the interactions
interactions between
between the the plant
plant and
and itsits environment.
environment.
•- Owing
Owing to to the
the complexity
complexity of of the
the system
system and and thethe
incomplete
incomplete statusstatus of of present
present knowledge,
knowledge, it it becomes
becomes
impossible
impossible to to completely
completely represent
represent the the system
system in in
mathematical
mathematical terms. terms.
Features of
Features of crop
crop models
models
•- The
The main
main aimaim ofof constructing
constructing crop crop models
models is is to
to obtain
obtain
an estimate
an estimate of of the
the harvestable
harvestable (economic)
(economic) yield. yield.
•- According
According to to the
the amount
amount of of data
data and
and knowledge
knowledge that that is
is
available
available within
within a a particular
particular field,
field, models
models with with different
different
levels
levels of
of complexity
complexity are are developed.
developed.
 Types of
Types of crop
crop models
models
1. Empirical
1. Empirical model
model
• Direct
Direct descriptions
descriptions of of observed
observed data data
• Expressed
Expressed as as regression
regression equations
equations (with
(with one
one oror aa few
few
factors) and
factors) and areare used
used toto estimate
estimate the the final
final yield.
yield.
• Examples
Examples of of such
such models
models include
include the
the response
response of of crop
crop
yield
yield to
to fertilizer
fertilizer application,
application, the the relationship
relationship between
between
leaf
leaf area
area and
and leafleaf size
size in
in aa given
given plant
plant species.
species.
• Limitation
Limitation of of this
this model
model is is site
site specific,
specific, itit can
can not
not used
used
universally.
universally.
2.
2. Statistical
Statistical models
models
•- These
These models
models represent
represent relationship
relationship between
between
yield components
yield components and and weather
weather parameters.
parameters.
•- Statistical
Statistical techniques
techniques are
are used
used to
to estimate
estimate the
the
relationship.
relationship.
2. Stochastic models: These models calculate output at a given rate. A

probability element is attached to each output. For each set of inputs different
outputs are given along with probabilities.

* When variation and uncertainty reaches a high level, it becomes advisable to

develop a stochastic model that gives an expected mean value as well as the
associated variance. However, stochastic models tend to be technically difficult to
handle and can quickly become complex.

=" Hence, itis advisable to attempt to solve the problem with a deterministic
approach initially and to attempt the stochastic approach only if the results are not

adequate and satisfactory.

# These models are convenient and computationally fast, and are useful in a
number of applications where the observed climate record 1s madequate with
respect to length, completeness, or spatial coverage.
SREENIVAS REDDY.K 26
•- A
A stochastic
stochastic model
model incorporates
incorporates random
random
variables to
variables to produce
produce many
many different
different outcomes
outcomes
under diverse
under diverse conditions
 Dynamic models
Dynamic models
•¢ Time
Time is
is included
included as
as a
a variable.
variable.
•- Output
Output isis a
a function
function of
of time.
time.
• Both
Both dependent
dependent and and independent
independent variables
variables have
have values
values
which
which remain
remain constant
constant over
over aa period
period of
of time.
time.
 Deterministic
Deterministic models
models
• Gives
Gives the
the same
same exactexact results
results for
for aa particular
particular setset of
of
inputs,
inputs, nono matter
matter how how many
many times
times you you re-calculate
re-calculate the the
model.
model.
• Here,
Here, the
the mathematical
mathematical propertiesproperties are are known.
known.
• None
None ofof them
them is is random.
random.
• There
There isis only
only oneone setset of
of specific
specific values
values and and only
only one
one
answer
answer or or solution
solution to to aa problem.
problem.
• With
With aa deterministic
deterministic model, model, the the uncertain
uncertain factors
factors areare
external
external to to the
the model.
model.
• Variations
Variations due due toto inaccuracies
inaccuracies in in recorded
recorded data data and
and to to
heterogeneity in
heterogeneity in the
the material
material being
being dealt
dealt with,
with, are
are
inherent
inherent to to biological
biological and and agricultural
agricultural systems.
systems.
• In
In certain
certain cases,
cases, deterministic
deterministic modelsmodels may may be be adequate
adequate
despite these
despite these inherent
inherent variations
variations but but in
in others
others they
they might
might
prove
prove to
to be be unsatisfactory
unsatisfactory e.g. e.g. in
in rainfall
rainfall prediction.
prediction.
5.Mechanistic models: These models explain not only the relationship between
weather parameters and yield, but also the mechanism. These models are based on
physical selection.

# A mechanistic model 1s one that describes the behaviour of the system in terms of
lowerlevel attributes. Hence, there 1s some mechanism, understanding or
explanation at the lower levels (eg. Cell division).

= These models have the ability to mimic relevant physical, chemical or biological
processes and to describe how and why a particular response occurs. The modeler
usually starts with some empirism and as knowledge 1s gained additional
parameters and variables are introduced to explain crop yield. The system is
therefore broken down into components and assigned processes.

"Examples of mechanistic models of the accumulation of plant dry matter are

described; for the most part, these concern whole-plant models of photosynthesis
and respiration.
SREENIVAS RED DY.K 28
•- Empirical
Empirical models
models are are based
based on on direct
direct observation,
observation,
measurement
measurement and and extensive
extensive datadata records.
records.
•- Mechanistic
Mechanistic models
models are are based
based on on anan understanding
understanding of of
the behavior
the behavior of of aa system's
system's components.
components.
•- For
For example,
example, you you can
can observe
observe thethe change
change ofof the
the tides
tides
over
over many
many years,
years, andand construct
construct an an empirical
empirical model
model that
that
allows you
allows you to
to predict
predict when
when tides
tides will
will occur,
occur, with
with no
no
understanding
understanding of of how
how thethe earth,
earth, moon
moon andand sun
sun interact.
interact.
You
You can
can also
also create
create a a mathematical,
mathematical, mechanistic
mechanistic model
model
that
that uses
uses the
the laws
laws of of physics
physics toto predict
predict tides.
6.Static model : In this model, time is not included as a variable. Dependent and
independent variable having values remain constant over a given period of time.

7.Simulation models: Computer models, in general, are a mathematical representation of a

real world system. One of the main goals of crop simulation models 1s to estimate agricultural

production as a function of weather and soil conditions as well as crop management. These models

use One or more sets of differential equations, and calculate both rate and state variables over time,

normally from planting until harvest maturity or final harvest.

= These form a croup of models that is designed for the purpose of imitating the behaviour of a

system. Since they are designed to mimic the system at short time intervals (daily time-step), the

aspect of variability related to daily change in weather and soil conditions ts integrated.

* The short simulation time-step demands that a large amount of input data (climate parameters,

soil characteristics and crop parameters) be available for the model to run. These models usually

offer the possibility of specifying management options and they can be used to investigate a wide

range of management strategies at low costs.

9
8. Descriptive model: A descriptive model defines the behaviour of a system in a simple
manner. The model reflects little or none of the mechanisms that are the causes of
phenomena. But, consists of one or more mathematical equations. An example of such an
equation 1s the one derived from successively measured weights of a crop. The equation 1s
helpful to determine quickly the weight of the crop where no observation was made.

9.Explanatory model: This consists of quantitative description of the mechanisms and

processes that cause the behaviour of the system. To create this model, a system is
analyzed and its processes and mechanisms are quantified separately. The model 1s built
by integrating these descriptions for the entire system. It contains descriptions of distinct
processes such as leaf area expansion, tiller production, etc. Crop growth 1s a consequence
of these processes.

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
 TYPES OF MODELS IN AGRICULTURE

1. Mathematical Model
2. Growth Model
3. Crop Weather Model

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
1. Mathematical Model :- Physical relationship of natural
phenomenon by Means of a mathematical equation are
called mathematical Model .

2. Growth Model :- If the phenomenon is expressed in the

growth define it is define as growth model

3. Crop Weather Model:- Crop weather model is basedon

the principle that govern the development of crop and its
growing period based on temperature and day length .

SREENIVAS REDDY.K 6 —
 MATHEMATICAL MODELS IN AGRICULTURE

There are three kinds of mathematical model used in agriculture:

Linear programming models,E mpirical curve-fitting, and Mechanistic or
dynamic models.
#/ inear programming ts used in economic planning or rationing of resources
involved in farm management, such as deciding on the amount and composition
of fertilizer applied to a field.
# Empirical curve-fitting quantifies in a few parameters a series of measurements
made of plants or animals, such as fitting the logistic curve to samples of a crop
taken at several times to find the specific growth rate.
# Mechanistic models are used to examine hypotheses relating physiological
processes, such as photosynthesis and respiration, to the behavior of whole
plants, such as the gain in weight of a plant.
# These kinds of models are not related mathematically or conceptually, so it is
difficult to cover each kind to the same degree or survey the literature with the
same breadth.
(ByJ. France andJ. H. M. Thornley. Butterworths, London and Boston 1984.)
 What are crop growth models ?

Crop growth models are computer software programs that can

simulate daily growth (e.g. biomass, yield) and development (e.g.
emergence, flowering, harvest) of crops such as wheat, maize or
potato. These models have been developed by scientists
worldwide over the last 40 years. As a result, they have now
reached a high degree of maturity, so that they can be confidently
applied to support agricultural management practices (e.g.
fertiliser recommendation, irrigation, crop rotation planning).

SREENIWAS REDDY .K 10
 ow do crop growth mod

*Depending on soil characteristics, weather conditions and crop

species, crop models calculate the daily growth of biomass in the
individual plant organs (stems, leaves, roots, grains/tubers, etc.) as
well as the progress of plant development from sowing to maturity.
* In addition, crop models account for important processes in the soil
(water and nutrient availability) in order to simulate crop growth
during a whole growing season.
"Moreover, an advanced crop model, as the one used in FARM/IT,
calculates nitrogen mineralisation, leaching and volatilisation
depending on precipitation and soil moisture content. Nitrogen
deficiency and drought stress reduce crop biomass growth and
yield. V1

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
 Weather Soil
« Rainfall « Nitrogen
« Solar Radiation Simulation «© Organic Substance
* Temperature Results « Water

Plant

ee
Fertiliser Efficency.
Yield, Quality

—
Environmental
Impacts
« Sol Fertility
© Nutent Leaching
* (Greenhousegas
Management Emissions Crop/Cultivar
* Fertilisation * Maturity
* |mgaton + Canopy Development
* Yield Prediciion « Yield Quality

SREENIVWAS REDDY.K
 O N A L V A R I A B I L I
SEAS
TORRENTIAL
SE VE RE Anat :s
At RAIN
tn
STORMs WA

Pee
PLANT, | ge A
5 ¥ se

i
,

FLOODS
=
OZONE
 Advantages of Crop Weather Modeling

» Reduces cumbersome field experiment considerably.

» \dentify crop production constrains.
» Model could be substitute to multi-location field trails for introducing a
variety in different agro-climatic zones saving time and money .

» Useful for maximizing the agricultural production through better crop

management practices.

» Help to evaluate expected returns of soil and management practices.

» Help in evaluating the risk associate with management practices.
» Help in understanding of biological and physical system and their
interaction. as ap

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
 _ STEPS IN CROP MODELLING

Define goals : ;
a Key variables in system :
Define system and its I daries ' .
eo ‘J eo 1. State variables are those which can be
Define key variablein
s system measured. e.g. soil moisture content,
| crop yield etc
Preparation of flowchart + rs ee
7 g ll. Kate variables are the rates of different
Evaluation processes operating in a system. e.g.
g a photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate.
Calibration a | |
§ Driving variables are the variables
— which are not part of the system but they
a affect the system. e.g. sunshine, rainfall.
Sensitivity anal ysis iv. Auxillary variables are the intermediated

préducts. e.g. dry matter partitioning, water

SREENIVAS REDDY. SIress €(c
 Rainfal & “et Radiation
Rainfall Temperature ET /PAN Energy Balance
(3) (S) (SD) (SD)

Atmosphenc Drought &

Sod Drought
Rainfall & _ (SD)
Runoff (SD) L
PAR
Crop Yield Photosynthesis
Floods & | #Stomatal Resistance
Water Logging Water Vapour Deficit
(SD) Arrflow
co,
Soil Water +| Root @)
Balance (D) [* Growth & Pest /
| a — Disease
ptake (SD)
Nutrient (D)
Uptake (D)
S : Statistical Model
D : Dynamic simulation

49 —

Source : Short course on Crop weather modeling 2011 by CRIDA, Hyderabad

 Temperature Light | . Photosynthetic
efficiency

a | FT a

| « Photosynthesis, {: Leaf va
Rate | | surface
' ; \
Development | a ‘ Shoot
stage Reserves \_~_# = Partitioning i biomass
£ ST

2 P , Root
rc _ biomass

Or Conversion
r Maintenance efficiency
Application: Optimising nitrogen fertilisation in winter wheat
In winter wheat grown in Austria, the question arises in the spring time, as to
how much nitrogen fertiliser should be applied. To answer this question, the
iCrop model can be applied to simulate biomass growth and nitrogen uptake of
crops by the time of scheduled fertilisation.
A Spectral sensor 1s then used to measure the nitrogen content of the crop in the
field. Using these information, 1Crop can make a season- and site-specific
nitrogen fertiliser recommendation.

Application: Crop yield forecasting

Predicting crop yield a few weeks before the harvest is extremely important for
the agricultural processing industry. The FARM/IT project will develop an
advanced software based on 1Crop and satellite data to make accurate regional
yield forecasts for potato, sugar beet and wheat.
17
SREENIVAS REDDY.K
Weather (Temperature, Rainfall, | Phenological Development
solar radiation) Sco kaaimilan Mader Lies
Soil Parameters (Texture, depth, ee |
soil moisture, soil fertility) aes pee cena

Lincontrollable
Environment Variables
definition Weather
Biophysical
conditions Outcome

Decision rules \ et Crop response

4 eterna Resources
Controllable * P = consumed
Variables \
/ — Calendar applied
Ceecisicr
thresholds ”
LIMitatione
 INPUTS

ars ELE Data Code

Crop
Models

at Harvest
during season

Output Depending on Option Setting and Simulation Application

SREENIVAS REDDY.K
POPULAR CROP MODELS USED EXTENSIVELY IN
INDIA_& WORLD-WIDE
DEVELOPED BY THE IARI IN INDIA
me AEC)
he)
INFOCROP: Key Components
. ORYZAIN
rere) tale Ce Ea)
. InfoCrop en Physiology,
temperalure, solar
a he
CI ele a Le
. th foSoil Tees morphology
Crop
COL
m1) Agronomic
ACQUIRED BY INDIA ~_ ne Lab inputs
population great
1. Ph SAT Tall oie

Te wee iboats

2. ORYZA1, ORYZAW. SLE

sodicity.
Ta TAY
3. WOFOST
4. DNDC
IMPACT OF MODELING IN AGRICULTURE

Evaluation of opimum management for cultural practice in crop production.

Evaluate weather risk via weather forecasting

Proper crop surveillance with respect to pests, diseases and deficiency & excess of

nutrients.

Yield prediction and forecasting

These are resource conserving tools,

Solve various practical problems in agriculture.

“eal prepare adaptation strategies to minimize the negative impacts of climate

change

Identification of the precise reasons for yield gap at farmer’s field

Forecasting crop vields.

Evaluate culnivar stability under long term weather conditions

 Uses of crop weather model
>» Crop system management: to evaluate optimum management production for

cultural practice.

1. Seed rate: Optimum seed rate can be found out with the help of these
models.

2. Irrigation: Optimum amount and time of application can be simulated.

3. Fertilizer: Optimum amount of fertilizer and time of application of the

fertilizer can be simulated.

Yield gap analysis: Potential yield can be simulated using these models and the
difference between potential yield and actual yield is the yield gap.

» Yield prediction and forecasting.

» Evaluation of climate change.

» Useful for solving various practical problems in agriculture.

» Are resource conserving tools.

» Can be used in precision farming studies.

» Are very effective tool for predicting possible impacts of

climatic change on crop growth and yield.

» Helps in adaptation strategies, by which the negative impacts

due to climate change can be minimized.

33
SREENIVAS REDDY.K
 ‘CONCLUSIO IN
#" As aresearch tool, model development and application can contribute
to identify gaps in our knowledge, thus enabling more efficient and
targeted research planning.
=" Models that are based on sound physiological data are capable of
supporting extrapolation to alternative cropping cycles and locations,
thus permitting the quantification of temporal and spatial variability.
=" Most models are virtually untested or poorly tested, and hence their
usefulness is unproven. Indeed, it is easier to formulate models than to
Validate them.
=" Because most agronomists understand the concept of crop growth
modeling and systems-approach research, training in this area is
required. An intensely calibrated and evaluated model can be used to
effectively conduct research that would in the end save time and money
and significantly contribute to developing sustainable agriculture that
meets the world’s needs for food.

42
1. Define goals: Agricultural system

2. Define system and its boundaries: Crop model

3. Define key variables in system:
. State variables are those which can be measured. e.g. soil moisture content,
crop yield etc

Rate variables are the rates of different processes operating in a system. e.g.
phosynthesis rate, transpiration rate.

Dua tereaa elute) (sees een Creme T Ee)er ON eRe eae v8) TMM MOeek else LEO
CUA (ee MO eh itetI eee LTO em ec UDOT ESTO

Auxihary variables are the mtermediated products. e.g. dry matter

partitioning, water stress etc

4, Quantify relationships (evaluation):

 References
References
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•- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0YHb0Q_q-o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0YHb0Q_q-o
•- Tutorial:
Tutorial: Seasonal
Seasonal analysis
analysis using
using DSSAT
DSSAT 4.5
4.5 (2/2).
(2/2). Class
Class Crop
Crop models,
models, U.
U. Cordoba
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•° Crop
Crop models-Concepts
models-Concepts && techniques,
techniques, types
types of
of crop
crop models,
models, data
data requirements,
requirements, relational
relational
diagrams
iagrams
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•* https://www.slideshare.net/ShwetaPatel22/forecasting-model-for-insect-pest?
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