Probability and Counting

Sample Points
Probability and Counting Sample Points
• Counting Sample Points
• Sample Space
• Events
• Probability an Event
• Additive Rules
Counting Sample Points
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these
ways a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two
operations can be performed together in n1 x n2 ways.
Basic Principle of Counting
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a
second operation can be performed in n2 ways, and for each of the first
two a third operation can be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then
the sequence of k operations can be performed in
n1 x n2 x n3 x…x nk ways
Counting Sample Points
• A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
• For any non-negative integer n, n!, called “n factorial,” is defined as
n! = n(n − 1) · · · (2)(1),
• 0! = 1.
Theorem: The number of permutations of n objects is n!.
Theorem:
Counting Sample Points

Theorem:
Sample Space and Events
An experiment is a process that generates a set of data.
tossing of a coin.
launching of a missile and observing of its velocity at specified times.
Collecting the opinions of voters concerning a new sales tax .
Statisticans are generally interested in the observations obtained by
repeating the experiment several times.
Sample Space and Events

The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the

sample space and is represented by the symbol S.
Examples: Consider the following experimets:
Flipping a coin, then
S={Head, Tail}
Tossing a die then
S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Sample Space and Events
An event is a subset of a sample space.
Example: In the tossing of a die we might let A be the event that an
even number occurs and B the event that a number greater than 3
shows up. Then the subsets
A = {2, 4, 6} and
B = {4, 5, 6} are events of the same sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Sample Space and Events
The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all
elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by
the symbol A’.
The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol
A∪ B, is the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or
both.
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted by the symbol
A ∩ B, is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if A ∩ B =Ø.
Sample Space and Events
There are many results which may easily be verified by means of Venn diagrams:
1) A ∩Ø=Ø
2) A ∪ Ø=A
3) A ∩S=A
4) A ∪ S=S
5) A ∪ A’=S
6) A∩A’=Ø
7) S’=Ø
8) Ø’=S
9) (A’)’=A
10) (A ∩B)’=A’ ∪B’
11) (A ∪B)’= A’ ∩B’
Probability of an Event
Probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of sample points in
A. That is;
0≤P(A) ≤ 1
P(Ø)=0 and P(S)=1
For any sequence of mutually exclusive events A1,A2,…,An,…
P(A1 ∪ A2∪ … ∪ An…)=P( A1)+P(A2)+…P(An)…
Example: A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as
likely to occur as an odd number. If E is the event that a number less
than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
Probability of an Event
RULE:
Additive Rules
Additive Rules
Theorem:

Theorem: