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SteveKirsch ExcessDeath RecordLevelData HealthNewZealand COVIDVaccinesKilledOver10MillionWorldwide
SteveKirsch ExcessDeath RecordLevelData HealthNewZealand COVIDVaccinesKilledOver10MillionWorldwide
SteveKirsch ExcessDeath RecordLevelData HealthNewZealand COVIDVaccinesKilledOver10MillionWorldwide
Key findings
1. The vaccine is unsafe. Mortality increases dramatically after the shot. This is true
for all doses, in all 5 countries we have data on. See Medicare death data confirms
the COVID vaccines are killing people. No more doubts. Same anomaly in all 5
countries.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 1/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
2. For those under 60, the effect is harder to see because the numbers are low (data is
noisy). This doesn’t mean the vaccine is safe for those under 60; it just means we
need more data.
4. The findings are the same in four other countries we looked at: US, Israel,
Maldives, and the UK.
5. The effect is large. I’ve never seen the deaths per day after a dose slope up after the
first 21 days. It always slopes down because the fraction killed in a year is always
greater than the nominal increase in the death rate over 1 year, even for 100 year
olds.
6. The signal is so obvious to anyone like myself who knows what vaccine curves look
like that you don’t even need the fancy time-series analysis to see this is a deadly
vaccine. Just graph the number of deaths each week after the shot is given. All the
bars should be below the 4 week bar if the vaccine is safe. There is no way to
explain this chart. In general, all the bars should be below the red line.
Update
If you want to attack my analysis you can do so 5 ways:
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 2/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
To date, nobody has found a bug in buckets.py and nobody has found a mistake in my v4
spreadsheet! The methodology is very standard; it’s the same method used by the UK
Office of National Statistics (ONS).
The graphs speak for themselves. It doesn’t get any more clear than this. You can vary
all four independent variables, and you see the same signal.
We are done. Nobody wants to go on camera and debate me on this. They would lose.
Badly. Those curves should be relatively flat lines, not curves with a hump. You don’t
need a control group on that kind of signal. IT IS UNPRECEDENTED.
Even self-proclaimed experts, like David Gorski were unable to find a problem in my
spreadsheet or buckets.py. If there are no errors, you have to accept the results. The
methodology is proven and accepted, the execution was flawless.
The fact that there are missing doses for a given person is immaterial. We are always
comparing dose 3 people with dose 3 people, for example.
And if the vaccine was as safe as claimed, missing doses for anyone is immaterial since
all doses are placebo shots and make no difference.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 3/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
The charts from Medicare are even more extreme than these. For all safe vaccines the
line slopes down. For the COVID vaccine, the line slopes up. Nobody has ever seen
anything like this. It is unprecedented in the history of Medicare. No counterexamples.
This is why no country is releasing the record-level data (RLD). If the vaccine was safe,
they’d be making the RLD widely available as well as the detailed time-series cohort
analysis. See anyone doing that? Nope. It’s because they know the vaccines are killing
people.
I even offered to take down my data if Health New Zealand showed me that my time-
series analysis is wrong and the vaccines are safe. No response. Crickets.
We now have data from 5 countries showing very troubling mortality vs. days since dose:
1. US
2. New Zealand
3. UK
4. Maldives
5. Israel
Guess what? In every single case, the plots of deaths vs. days since dose are inexplicable.
It isn’t supposed to go upwards after 3 weeks (the HVE effect). Everyone runs from
explaining this.
There isn’t any epidemiologist with higher academic credentials than Risch who will
state that the data is flawed, the data is incomplete, the data is insufficient to assess
causality to the vaccine. There are people who are unqualified who will make these
unfounded assertions.
Executive summary
Today you will get to see the data that nobody wants you to see. FINALLY.
No State or country has ever released record-level public health data on any vaccine.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
Privacy is not the reason for this; the data can be easily obfuscated (which we did on this
data) so that no record entry would match that of any person, living or dead.
The reason the data is kept secret is simple: it would expose the fact that the COVID
vaccines are unsafe, as well as all the vaccines that I have been able to get record-level
data on.
Today, thanks to a courageous whistleblower who works at the New Zealand Ministry of
Health, we have record-level information from a large population of all ages and are
making it public for the first time in history.
There was a YouTube link as well, but YouTube censored it within minutes of posting,
just like we knew they would.
Just as you suspected, the COVID vaccines have killed millions of people worldwide, an
estimated 1 death per 1,000 doses on average in a standard population.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
You can only access the data-transparency bucket for now. Trust me, there’s more that
I’m not disclosing yet (including a new US source other than Medicare).
This bucket has data from New Zealand, US, and the Maldives.
You can use any S3 file browser to download such as CloudBerry Explorer or CyberDuck
or Amazon’s S3 Browser.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 6/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
Pick the S3 Compatible storage provider (double click on it). Then fill it out as noted
above
Make sure your destination folder is writable when you copy files from the server.
You can also use rclone to make a local copy of the repository on your system:
Here is are the response points to all the criticisms I’m aware of. The tl;dr is that all of
the critiques don’t move the needle.
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 7/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
2. I verified the identity of the leaker and the authenticity of the data and chain of
custody.
3. There is no doubt about the authenticity. NZMH would have said the data is fake if
it was. That would immediately discredit it. But they didn’t because that would be
criminal. So they decided to distract people by going after the leaker and calling
him a misinformation spreader for leaking the ACTUAL records.
4. The data available publicly has been anonymized. That is why they acknowledged
this and couldn’t find any matching records. Anyone who thinks their personal data
was leaked is delusional.
5. There is only one way to analyze this data definitively and that’s with a time-series
cohort analysis. This is the exact same methodology the UK ONS used to analyze
their vaccine data. The difference is our buckets are one week long so we can see
things they are trying to hide. So if you want to dispute the analysis, you either have
to show one of 3 things: that 1) our buckets.py program has a bug or 2) that all the
mortality curves are flat or relatively flat, or 3) that the dataset is somehow
compromised by showing that one of the four graphs is nonsensical or 4) that the v4
xlsx file has a bug in it. Nobody has done #1, and #2 is impossible. Nobody has even
attempted #3 or #4. So basically, all the “attacks” are a ridiculous waste of time.
There is a way to attack this if it is wrong, but nobody seems capable of figuring it
out. I just told you the answer. Go prove I’m wrong using this method and I’m all
ears. I did it the professional way just like the UK did. If I made a mistake, tell me
what it is. But having each person do their own “ad hoc” analysis is not how you
analyze the data. The gold standard is time-series cohort.
6. The 1 death per 1,000 doses is consistent with other careful analyses such as
Rancourt.
7. UPenn Professor Jeffrey Morris wrote "But without data on controls and without
comorbidities the most you could ever do is claim the data are suggestive” is false.
This is nearly the entire population of New Zealand. We know the stats. The rise in
mortality is correlated with each vaccine shot. When you add the shot data together
for all shots, the hump becomes even more well defined. This is like saying that if
there is a mass shooting and 25 people died, that we can’t know if it was the bullet
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that killed them because they might have died all died spontaneously right before
the bullet hit. And if the time-series cohort analysis showed that the death rate
jumped 500% exactly 10 days after the shot, would Morris stick to his statement?
He’s simply not credible. He wants to make every excuse imaginable to avoid saying
what the data shows. He should assume it’s a normal population. And you can limit
the time window of observation to before COVID, during COVID, and after
COVID and see the same signals. Without controls, you have to work a little harder
to validate there are no significant confounders, but “scientists” such as Morris
want perfect data on everyone which never exists. He has never explained the
mortality graph from Medicare showing a 26% mortality increase in 365 where the
number of deaths per day increases monotonically. That is impossible if the vaccine
is safe. It always always slopes down. You don’t need a control group. The slope
goes the wrong way. That is a 5 alarm fire. It’s amazing he doesn’t know this.
c. a credible excess death estimate under 100 deaths per 100K doses based on the
data (they all refuse to show us their calculation)
d. any epidemiologist with a higher h-index than Risch claiming that this data
could possibly be consistent with a safe vaccine.
e. a more accurate way to calculate the baseline that is based on other similar
data.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
10. There are 12M doses in New Zealand. The data drop is only for the “Pay per dose”
(PPD) program in NZ which is 4M of the 12M records. Whether you got PPD or not
is pretty random.
11. What cohort does this PPD programme cover? Answer: it’s completely random. It
is not age biased or biased to any demographic. If you can prove I’m wrong, show
me your data.
12. The reason the avg age of death is higher than average is because the older you are,
the more the vaccine killed you. Duh.
13. KiwiCraig74 wrote: “Yes, these were mobile units used to give vaccinations to
people in rest homes, which is where people generally are when they don't have
long left. Average term of residence is only 20 months, so many die within his 10
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14. There is a disproportionate amount of records for the doses, i.e., they are not in
direct proportion to the total number of each dose, e.g., they are not 33% of each
dose. Some doses are over-represented, some are under represented.
15. Many people will not have all their doses in this database, e.g., there may just be
dose 3 data for someone.
16. The fact that the sampling was uneven doesn’t matter if you analyze it the way I
did. The fact that doses are missing is also irrelevant. These are gaslighting
arguments made by people who are incompetent to analyze this data.
17. The data shows a mortality hump that peaks around 6 months after a dose is given.
18. If you limit the time period to before COVID, during COVID death wave (from
April 1 to August 1, 2022) and after the wave, you find the same response curve. So
it wasn’t COVID. People who claim that are misinformed and claim it without
evidence.
19. Let’s take a simple example. From OWID, we know there were no COVID deaths
from Aug 1, 2022 to Nov 1, 2022 in New Zealand. From our spreadsheet we see the
average deaths for everyone during that time:
So now lets look at that same period of time, except let’s look relative to the shot
administration time
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The dots aren’t supposed to go above 1059 (which is the highest number from the
spreadsheet entries above).
20. Nobody will debate me on this. I offered to debate the NZMH epidemiologists
about the cohort time-series analysis I did and they don’t want to challenge me for
some reason. I can’t figure it out. They should CRUSH me if the data shows the
vaccines are safe.
21. The NZMH should be releasing the full 12M record dataset to remove all doubt and
prove to the world the vaccines are safe. They don’t want to do that. Nobody wants
to do that. Nobody in the ##$#$#% world wants to do that. Can you figure out why?
Use your brain folks!
22. I offered to bet anyone $1M on the same terms as my bet with Saar Wilf that the NZ
data is legit and it shows the vaccines increase risk of death. Nobody seems
interested in taking my money which means all of them have no confidence
whatsoever in their criticisms.
23. The NZMH whisteblower, Oracle database admin Barry Young, is a hero. He knew
he would risk his life and could spend the rest of his life in jail, but he made the
courageous move to expose the data for all to see. This is a highly commendable act
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of public service. He basically threw the rest of his life away in order to save the
lives of others. Why else do you think he would do that? Nobody can explain it.
24. They tried to give this to lawmakers but nobody would meet with them.
25. No New Zealand lawmaker is calling for an independent investigation. They all
want to make Barry into the fall guy. Why not have a worldwide panel of top
epidemiologists analyze the record-level data? We know why… Barry was right.
26. The NZMH has never released the time-series cohort analysis showing the vaccines
are safe. They have never released the record level data. Their goal is to keep the
data hidden for as long as possible so that they kill as many people as possible
before they are caught. The leadership of NZMH are the people who should be
arrested.
27. Professor Norman Fenton retracted his remarks about deaths being oversampled
after I pointed out to him that there is nothing in the data that supports that. See
his new article. He doesn’t dispute my analysis (which ignores the hot lot analysis).
28. Igor Chudov wrote a critical article but now is relooking at the data after I talked to
him and explained to him how his original article is wrong.
29. Jikkyleaks analysis is amazing crude. That’s not the way to analyze this data. I like
Jikky but he’s wrong. Once again, nobody would analyze the data that way. There is
a right way and a wrong way. The UK ONS got it right. Let’s stick to that way.
NOBODY SEEMS TO WANT TO DO IT THE RIGHT WAY. They all want to use
their own custom made analysis technique that they create on the seat of their
pants, rather than the right way to do that. Why is that?
30. UPenn Professor Jeffrey Morris claims you can’t find a signal here but all attempts
for a public recorded discussion of the data were refused. He apparently hasn’t even
seen my MIT presentation which is a pre-requisite if you are serious about
understanding this data. He shoots first without taking the time to listen to what is
being presented. Morris isn’t an honest actor. Someone looking to find the truth
would be calling for every public health agency to release the record level data.
Morris has never made any such call. He doesn’t want the truth exposed. I asked
him to explain just one slide in my MIT slide deck (the most devasting slide in the
deck), and he hadn’t seen it before which is proof he didn’t even listen to my
presentation or even view the slides. Instead of explaining the Medicare data,
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Morris does his standard “switch the topic” technique to avoid answering a simple
question. Click the link and scroll up to see the original question which nobody can
answer:
31. Morris has had the records in his hands for about 1 week before my MIT talk. He
has not published any blog post explaining how this evidence is consistent with a
safe vaccine. When I asked him, “So Jeffrey, what exactly would an “unsafe” vaccine
look like, he said he doesn’t play games like that. Morris never saw a vaccine that is
“unsafe.” In his eyes, no matter how many people die, the vaccine is safe and all
safety signals are caused by confounders that he cannot quantify. This is all
handwaving analysis to make your point. Where is his blog on this data? I’ll tear it
apart inch by inch and show how corrupt he is.
32. None of these people who claim to critique this will do a live discussion with me.
No offers on the thread at all. If you want to debate me, simply post your argument
and follow me, and say you want a debate. Everyone seems scared to do this,
including KiwiCraig74.
33. The official NZ death records show around 10,000 excess deaths since the vaccines
rolled out. This is comparable to the number predicted from the vaccine data (1
excess death per 1,000 doses).
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
Mirror sites
Do not mirror my data unless you have a bulletproof hosting provider.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
2. The tools: We’ll give you our time-series cohort analysis software. This is the
software that you’ll never get your State epidemiologist to use. Now, armed with
record-level data, you can do your own analysis. We’ve made it super easy to use.
When done, paste the output file into our v4 analysis .xlsx spreadsheet and you’ll
see instantly whether the vaccine is safe or not.
4. The description of the data: You’ll find documents describing the dataset (size,
dates, average ages in each cohort, what the authorities claim, etc.
I encourage you to explore. Everything is “legal” in that jurisdiction. So you’ll see the
full times of people who died in the Maldives, for example. In other places, the names
are omitted.
Introduction
I was provided the data on November 8, 2023 when it was uploaded to my Wasabi file
server.
I was asked by the whistleblower to keep the data confidential until November 30 in
order to give the whistleblower time to work out the logistics of how the data would be
made public.
The data from New Zealand is not perfect; it is not a complete sample. For example, for
some people, the first record in the database is Dose #3. Also, only vaccinated people are
in the database.
But, by using a cohort time-series analysis, it doesn’t matter. There is no possible way
that this data is consistent with a safe vaccine. I estimated that the vaccine killed, on
average, about 1 person per 1,000 doses. That means an estimated 675,000 Americans
were killed by the COVID vaccines.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
We have confirmation of the analysis from the US Medicare data thanks to another
whistleblower.
The story of the data can be found in my presentation which has a link to the Wasabi
server and access credentials, as well as how to download the free Wasabi File Explorers
for PC and Mac. There is a large amount of data and analysis uploaded to the servers.
The cohort time-series analysis takes about 2 hours to run on the data. We’ve included
the output files so you can start from that.
Analyzing the data takes about 5 minutes using the v4 spreadsheet in the analysis
directory. Anyone can do it. You just plug in numbers to vary the parameters to look at
anything you want to investigate. It has 8 visualizations: 4 main graphs (one for each
independent variable) and 4 below each graph showing the number of deaths so you can
use that to judge the reliability of the data points in the graph above.
Be sure to read the entire presentation to understand how to interpret the data.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
This estimate is supported by COVID death data from Medicare obtained from another
whistleblower. The data from Medicare was stunning: the number of people who died
rose monotonically for those who got shot in 2021 or 2022. My whistleblower inside
HHS had never seen anything like that before. It was a perfectly straight line sloping
upwards for 365 days since the dose was given. A safe vaccine would see a decline in
deaths by 4% to 5% after 1 year from the shot. The COVID vaccines had a 26% mortality
increase, a net difference of 30%. This makes the COVID vaccine a competitor to heart
disease as the leading cause of death among the elderly (which kills 20% of people per
year).
Researchers could have discovered the harms of these vaccines years earlier if any of the
world’s health authorities released comparable record-level data to that released here. It
is baffling to us why the medical community who is sworn to do no harm is not insisting
on seeing any record-level data before recommending the use of any vaccine to their
patients. It is the record-level data that is key to understanding whether a vaccine is safe
or not. This is always hidden from public view.
Clinical outcomes are never improved by keeping public health data hidden from
public view. Yet every health authority in the world has kept this critical record-level
safety data hidden from view.
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
And, to our knowledge, only one authority, the UK Office of National Statistics, had
supplied even the most basic time-series analysis for a limited amount of time. The UK
time-series analysis confirms the monotonic increase in mortality after each shot is
given. But the UK ONS got to pick the bucket sizes whereas when we do the analysis,
we have buckets for every week so we can see exactly what is going on. They can’t. And
the ONS stopped responding to me when I asked to see the record-level data.
Other health authorities apparently refused to analyze their own data themselves to look
for any safety signals which we found in abundance just minutes after receiving the
data. After we received this data and analyzed this, we reached out to a number of health
authorities in the US in Florida, California, and at the CDC and FDA. They all ignored
the request to examine the data I obtained or look at their own data. This is the first
time in history that vaccination-death record-level data has been made available to the
public. And now we know why.
In addition, FOIA requests to the California Department of Public Health showed that
they never analyzed their own data. There were no documents showing that they ever
looked for any safety signals. They simply trusted the CDC even though the CDC
doesn’t have any vaccine record level data, so it is IMPOSSIBLE for the CDC to do the
proper safety analysis.
Finally, the safety signals are limited to those 60 and over simply because there wasn’t
enough data to make a firm determination for people under 60; the data was simply too
noisy because we were only given 4M of the 12M records in New Zealand.
In any sane world, the COVID vaccines would be immediately halted and inquiries
should begin as to why no health authority in the world did a thorough cohort time-
series analysis on the data which would have uncovered the safety signal very early in
the deployment. Are they all corrupt? Or are they all incompetent? Or both?
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Pfizer is no different. Both companies were offered an opportunity to view this safety
data and they all refused. So did the FDA and CDC. The offer was made by a respected
journalist in the medical new community, not by me.
Finally, here is what famed British Mathematician Professor Norman Fenton said, “This
confirms what we also saw in the most recent ONS data once.
Whatever uncertainty there may be in the younger age groups there is now no doubt
the vaccine is increasing the mortality rate in older people.”
“I think that you've made a very strong case that the Covid genetic vaccines are
associated with appreciably increased mortality rates for 6-12 months after each
dose. This is particularly compelling in people over age 65. I am not aware of actual
evidence that the increased post-vaccine mortality that you've shown has a
different cause.”
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12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
The English translation of what he wrote is “the vaccines are killing people,” but
scientists aren’t allowed to be blunt so they have to qualify everything they say.
If you think we got it wrong, I have a $500K bet pending with Saar Wilf in Israel. I’d love
to increase the stakes on that bet. Any takers?
https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 21/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
Fortunately most people figure it out pretty quickly. Did you know that 42% of
Americans would join a class action lawsuit against the COVID vax makers if they were
allowed under law to do so? That is an unprecedented level of customer dissatisfaction.
This is why I shorted Moderna stock. That is not a sustainable business. The markets
will eventually figure this out.
They won’t get away with stupid arguments like that with me. That’s why they won’t
debate me.
If you liked this article and want to keep supporting my work, and are not already a paid
subscriber, please consider becoming a paid subscriber for just $50/yr or $5/month.
Your subscription fee supports the critical work that Substack has done in providing a
free-speech platform, and also provides the funds needed to continue this work to
expose the fraud and save lives.
Summary
It’s over. They’ve lost. The vaccines are unsafe. This data is the nail in the coffin. Gold
standard, official records. There is no better ground truth than this. There is no
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comparable ground-truth data showing the vaccines are safe. Zero. There can be only
one right answer.
If you think the vaccines are safe, accept my bet, debate me publicly, or release the
record level data in your state. Nobody will do any of those things it seems.
Now we’ll see just how broken science is if the world’s top epidemiologists cannot agree
that the vaccines are unsafe. For example, will John Ioannidis weigh in? Or will he
remain silent? Will Martin Kulldorff say anything? Or will he also ignore this data?
In the meantime, the medical community and mainstream media will keep
recommending the jabs as if nothing has happened. They should be ashamed of
themselves.
522 Comments
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https://kirschsubstack.com/p/data-from-us-medicare-and-the-new 23/24
12/19/23, 8:15 PM Data from Health New Zealand confirms that the COVID vaccines have killed over 10 million worldwide
You think I’m nit-picking, but the whole article - your smoking gun - is the demonstrably
different outcomes of the toxins (they are not vaccines) dependent on the different sexes of
the victims. So what do you do? You introduce a made-up, non-scientific term (gender) in
place of the correct term sex. The smarter folks are, the dumber they act - just because they
want to impress folks.
LIKE REPLY SHARE
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