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2 Green - Industrial - Policy - Book - Aw - Web (021-030)
2 Green - Industrial - Policy - Book - Aw - Web (021-030)
Green Industrial Policy: Accelerating Structural Change Towards Wealthy Green Economies
is clear: the creation of wealthy economies is International Panel on Climate Change predicts
strongly correlated with the ability to manage that if we continue to manage our economies in 5
structural change in a way that enhances produc- the same way, global mean surface temperature
tivity in a socially inclusive way. will increase by 3.7°C to 4.8°C by 2100 compared
to the average for 1850 to 1900 (IPCC 2014). Melting
of polar ice and thawing of permafrost soils are
2.2. TAKING ECOLOGICAL BOUNDARIES
two dangerous accelerators of global environmen-
INTO ACCOUNT: A GAME-CHANGER FOR
tal change. But there are other big threats to the
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Earth System calling for urgent action including
The global economy is on an unsustainable path. loss of biodiversity, ozone depletion, ocean acid-
Since the industrial revolution, the world econ- ification, water shortage, soil degradation, accu-
omy has grown at the expense of the environment. mulation of nitrogen in aquatic ecosystems and
Natural resources have been exploited without the accumulation of chemical waste and plastics
allowing stocks to regenerate, pollutants have (Rockström et al. 2009; WBGU 2014).
accumulated in the biosphere, ecosystems have
These fundamental threats to humanity need
been degraded severely and biodiversity has been
to be taken into account when thinking about
lost at an alarming rate. Already in the early 2000s,
further growth and structural change of econ-
the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment, a UN-led
omies. The way economic transactions are
global assessment of the Earth’s ecosystems,
currently organized largely ignores the social cost
concluded that about 60 per cent of the ecosys-
of resource depletion and pollution. Natural capi-
tem services examined had been degraded or
tal embodied in fertile soils, fresh water, clean air
were used in ways that cannot be sustained (MEA
and productive ecosystems is being wasted. This
2005). Similarly, UNEP (2011) summarises a series
waste undermines the basis for future economic
of reports showing severe overexploitation of fish
development and jeopardizes the progress made
stocks, increasing water scarcity, decreasing soil
on social welfare (Fay et al. 2015). Therefore, we
quality and unsustainable rates of deforestation.
need to recognise environmental sustainability as
Through product and process innovations, fundamental to the production process.
resource efficiency is increasing worldwide. Put
In essence, human well-being and economic
differently, fewer natural resources are needed to
progress need to be decoupled from non-renew-
produce the same unit of output; but this increase
able resource consumption and emissions (UNEP
in efficiency has been quite modest, with the
2011). To make economic development sustaina-
effect that GDP growth globally has more than
ble, resource efficiency needs to increase at least
outweighed the efficiency gains (Jackson 2016;
at the same rate as economic output. The largest
Wiedmann et al. 2015). This led to a situation
challenge is how to achieve the steep decline in
where “global material extraction more than
GHG emissions needed to keep global temper-
doubled in the past 30 years, from around 36
ature rise well below 2°C. To achieve this, global
billion tonnes in 1980 to almost 85 billion tonnes
carbon intensity would have to be reduced by 6.3
in 2013, an overall growth of 132 per cent” (Vienna
per cent every year to 2100, much faster than the
University of Economics and Business 2016).
modest annual decline of 1.3 per cent achieved
Environmental contamination also increased.
between 2000 and 2014 (PwC 2015).
In the case of anthropogenic greenhouse gases,
emissions rose from 33 to 49 Gt CO2e per year So far, none of the major economies has achieved
from 1980 to 2010 (IPCC 2014). Due to continued this. However, ‘absolute decoupling’ is not impos-
growth of the global population and increased per sible. Enormous resource efficiency jumps are
capita consumption, particularly since the turn technologically feasible: with the shift to renew-
of the century, “anthropogenic pressures on the able energy, the use of smart information and
Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt communication technology systems, the use of
global environmental change can no longer be energy-saving technologies and, last but not least,
excluded” (Rockström et al. 2009). Research on changes in consumer behaviour. To accelerate the
environmental systems highlights the existence required technological and business model inno-
of tipping points at which environmental change vations, however, economic incentives need to
accelerates due to self-reinforcing mechanisms be set very differently. Above all, environmental
and systems are unable to restore their previous costs need to be much better reflected in prices,
equilibrium (Lenton et al. 2008). regulations must be tightened and subsidies for
fossil fuels and other unsustainable goods and
Global warming is the most pronounced threat to
practices need to be phased out.
human development and the environment. The
Green Industrial Policy - Concept, Policies, Country Experiences
Doing so will invariably have deep and system- if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided
6 wide implications, comparable to those observed (McGlade and Ekins 2015). Fossil fuel reserves as
during the first industrial revolution or the rise well as assets that depend on transforming and
of information technology (Pérez 2002). It will trading fossil fuel, such as refineries, power plants
change the way we farm our land and manufac- and petrol distribution networks, may therefore
ture goods, where we source our energy, how we be overvalued. Rapid technological progress in
transport things and how we build our infrastruc- low-carbon technologies and/or more ambitious
ture and design our cities. Among the various decarbonisation policies may force the holders
environmental challenges, mitigating climate of carbon assets to adjust their values, which in
change will have arguably the deepest implica- turn may cause a carbon bubble shock with deep
tions for structural change because it affects the repercussions for banks, pension funds and insur-
energy and transport sectors that so far have ance companies (Weyzig et al. 2014). The Econo-
fuelled economic development, literally. Accord- mist Intelligence Unit estimates that within the
ing to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate global stock of manageable assets the value at risk
Change, global annual CO2 emissions will need to due to climate change ranges from US$ 4.2 trillion
be reduced 42 to 57 per cent by 2050, relative to to US$ 43 trillion between now and the end of the
2010, and 73 to 107 per cent by 2100 (IPCC 2014). century (EIU 2015). The Financial Stability Board
To achieve such levels of decarbonisation, major recognises such asset stranding related to climate
systemic changes are indispensable: Electric- change to be a relevant risk to the global financial
ity generation needs to shift fully from fossil to system and therefore put a reporting system in
renewable sources; as power generation is decar- place, the Task Force on Climate-related Financial
bonised, transport, heating and other energy using Disclosure (TCFD 2017). In fact, some institutional
sectors need to be electrified, including road traf- investors have started to withdraw from carbon
fic; and resource efficiency needs to be increased assets (Schwartz 2015). Hence there are market
radically across all industries, including the shift mechanisms at work that accelerate the struc-
to circular economies where waste is reduced, tural change towards a low-carbon economy.
reused or recycled (Fay et al. 2015).
While mining and power supply industries are
Some of these changes are already in full swing, most affected, structural change in other indus-
others yet to come. Global energy systems–and tries is following. Regulators in all main automo-
all the related manufacturing and service activi- tive markets including the European Union, USA,
ties related to power generation, transmission and Japan and China, have defined roadmaps for
storage–are already undergoing a fast and radi- reducing average CO2 emission levels of new cars.
cal change. Renewable energy technologies have Within a few years, these levels can no longer be
been adopted widely around the world. Electricity achieved by efficiency gains in fuel-driven cars
from hydro, geothermal and certain biomasses alone, forcing manufacturers to incorporate elec-
can now compete with fossil fuel-based electric- tric and hybrid cars into their product range and
ity, as do wind and solar power in good locations, to rapidly increase their share in overall sales. The
and further cost reductions are expected. While private sector is in fact responding. Electric vehi-
15 years ago renewable energy power installa- cle deployment has recently taken off with expo-
tions played a negligible role in global electricity nential growth rates, albeit from a low basis. In
generation, “the world now adds more renewable 2016, the global stock of electric cars exceeded two
power capacity annually than it adds in net new million, up from a few hundred ten years earlier
capacity from all fossil fuels combined” (REN21 (OECD and IEA 2017). With rapidly falling battery
2016; REN21 2017). prices and increasing battery performance, electric
cars will soon be fully competitive with fuel-driven
Firms continuing to invest in unsustainable tech- cars (Altenburg et al. 2017, this volume). Early
nologies run the risk of having to write off major movers such as Tesla and Toyota are taking market
investments. According to McGlade and Ekins shares from established carmakers that have been
(2015), climate research suggests that “to have at slower to adapt. Similar changes can be observed
least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming in other product categories: reflected in growing
below 2°C throughout the twenty-first century, the markets for organic food, biodegradable packaging
cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and and renewable building materials, for example.
2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide.” As a consequence, about one Not only products will change, but also production
third of oil reserves, one half of gas reserves processes and business models. Circular econ-
and at least 80 per cent of known coal reserves omy models are being developed to minimise
cannot be burnt and need to be kept in the ground material and energy flows through industrial
Chapter 1
Green Industrial Policy: Accelerating Structural Change Towards Wealthy Green Economies
systems and make sure residuals of one produc- degradation undermines the ecological founda-
tion process are used as input for another (Ellen tions for economic growth and human well-be- 7
MacArthur Foundation 2012). In energy systems, ing, most obviously in countries that depend
new technologies enable the development of on economic activities in agriculture, forestry
decentralized mini grids where customers can or fisheries. Second, pollution and waste typi-
flexibly respond to price signals, supplying power cally reflect inefficiencies in production, and
or reducing demand when the price on the grid resource-saving techniques tend to amortize
is high and consuming power when it is low very quickly even without consideration of posi-
(Nathaney et al. 2016). Worldwide, new business tive externalities. Third, sticking to traditional
models are flourishing, models based on sharing products and processes as the worlds’ domi-
rather than owning assets, in most cases facil- nant economic actors shift to greener goods and
itated via online marketplaces. These include production techniques will drive a wedge between
sharing of cars, accommodation or taxi services. local and global practices. This makes it more
Last but not least, the certification and accredi- difficult to compete in the future, considering that
tation industry is receiving a boost, as economic trade and investment treaties increasingly regu-
actors are increasingly obliged to prove that their late environmental issues and that lead firms in
production processes comply with various envi- global value chains impose progressively higher
ronmental requirements. environmental standards. Fourth, countries
should avoid getting locked into unsustainable
In sum, the recognition of ecological system infrastructure and business practices because
boundaries has already become a game-changer the costs of switching in the future will likely be
for economic development. Incentive systems disproportionally high. Therefore, today’s invest-
are changing–still too slow from an environmen- ments in high-carbon energy infrastructure may
tal perspective–and a lot of experimentation is turn into financial burdens soon, as renewable
happening in terms of new products and processes. energy becomes cheaper and commitments to
decarbonise become binding and costly. Devel-
2.3. CHANGE WILL AFFECT oping countries are in an advantageous position
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES in the sense that most of their energy and urban
infrastructure is yet to be built, so they can avoid
How relevant are these changes for developing costly misdirected investments in unsustaina-
countries, taking into account that “many are ble infrastructure. Fifth, many new green tech-
unable to keep up with the investments to satisfy nologies come with co-benefits. For example,
the basic needs of their citizens, let alone the effi- investing in clean air greatly improves health
cient cities, roads, housing, schools, and health conditions and reduces health-related expendi-
systems they aspire to create” (Fay et al. 2015:2)? tures; and communities can be electrified at lower
In fact, many people in developing countries, cost when new technologies make it easier to use
including government officials, regard environ- local sources of renewable energy at small scales.
mental protection a luxury their countries should Sixth, green industrial policies drive innovation.
deal with at later stages of development, once the While new-to-the-world types of innovation will
more pressing problems of human development mostly likely be developed in a relatively small
have been solved. number of countries with strong national inno-
vation systems, certain innovations may also
Still, even when governments put their own
be developed in poorer countries and drive local
national social and economic objectives first,
productivity growth and job creation. Table 1.1
there are strong arguments for not delaying the
provides an illustrative overview of new green
transition to a green economy (Padilla 2017 and
product and service opportunities, differentiating
Ambec 2017, this volume). First, environmental
between countries by level of income.
Green Industrial Policy - Concept, Policies, Country Experiences
Table 1.1: New green product and service opportunities for countries at different income levels
8
Higher middle and high income countries Low and lower-middle income countries
New Renewable energy technologies including Low- and medium tech, low cost products
products high-tech components of solar photovoltaics, such as solar water heaters, solar water
concentrated solar power, wind turbines and pumps, solar driers; drip irrigation systems;
geothermal technologies; energy storage rainwater harvesting technologies; LPG, LNG or
technologies including fuel cells and lithium- ethanol cook stoves; LNG-based three-wheeler
ion batteries; electric vehicles; new lightweight taxis.
materials; bioplastics; carbon capture and Inputs for global green production for which
storage technologies; high performance factor endowments exist: such as lithium, rare
building façades. earths, cellulosic ethanol.
New Design and operation of smart grids, closed- Simple low-cost services such as for operation
services cycle eco-industrial parks, intelligent transport and maintenance of decentralized and mini
systems, advanced energy management electric grid solutions; labour-intensive waste
systems, electronic road pricing, tracking recycling; low-carbon livestock management;
and tracing systems for environmental management of rapid transit systems.
performance along value chains. Labour-intensive tasks in emerging green
global value chains, such as assembly of solar
panels or lithium-ion cells.
In fact, awareness of the need for green industrial fleet emissions, to restrict access of high polluting
policy is clearly increasing among developing vehicles in inner cities or to oblige taxi fleets to
country stakeholders. Governments of countries run on ethanol or compressed natural gas.
at very different income levels have enacted
green economy strategies, ranging from Ethio-
2.4. THE DUAL CHALLENGE
pia, Rwanda, Cambodia and Vietnam to Mexico
and China. Growing recognition is also reflected Governments around the world are thus
by the 197 countries party to the 2015 Paris Agree- confronted with a dual challenge: to accelerate
ment under the United Nations Framework structural change towards higher productivity
Convention on Climate Change, thereby commit- in a way that is socially inclusive and to align
ting to limit the increase in the global average economic development with the carrying capac-
temperature to well below 2°C above pre-indus- ity of our planet. Recognizing the need to harmo-
trial levels, to pursue efforts to limit the temper- nise both objectives and to make industrial policy
ature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels environmentally sound is essential. In this regard,
and to formulate and communicate long-term the unanimous global agreement on the 2030
low greenhouse gas emission development strat- Agenda for Sustainable Development has been a
egies. So far, the existing commitments, known major achievement (UN 2015).
as Nationally Determined Contributions, are not
sufficiently ambitious to stay below the envis- However, not a single country has been able, so
aged threshold levels (Climate Action Tracker far, to enhance the welfare of its citizens without
2015), and we may expect a gap between political increasingly depleting its resource base. In this
declaration and actual implementation; but the regard, governments in search of a welfare-en-
trend towards greener technologies and incentive hancing sustainable economy are entering
systems is unlikely to be reversed. Especially in uncharted territory. There are obvious trade-offs
the field of energy generation, renewable energy between the welfare and environmental sustaina-
technologies are becoming much more cost-ef- bility objectives, at least in the short and medium
ficient in many more locations. Developing and term. Ostensibly, internalizing environmental
emerging economies now account for about half costs that have been externalized in the past
of global renewable energy investments and the increases the apparent cost of production and
market for renewables-based mini-grids is boom- reduces cost-competitiveness if competitors
ing (REN21 2017). With regard to air pollution, do not have to bear these costs. Moreover, green
many developing countries and municipalities investments have opportunity costs: governments
have taken drastic measures to regulate trans- need to find a good balance between the necessary
port. These include measures to reduce allowable investments in environmental improvements and
Chapter 1
Green Industrial Policy: Accelerating Structural Change Towards Wealthy Green Economies
other outlays, such as those for health, education to be able to design green industrial policies
and infrastructure. But there are multiple syner- while Maximising gains and minimizing costs. 9
gies as well. The search for green technologies This will be challenging, given that optimal solu-
will create many opportunities for economic tions depend on situation-specific factors–from
development, health benefits, improved efficien- resource endowments and techno-institutional
cies and better living conditions. Governments capabilities to the distribution of power between
must understand these synergies and trade-offs the polluting incumbents and green newcomers.
5 Countries that managed to close the technological and income gap vis-à-vis more advanced economies invariably
employed a range of carrots and sticks to protect and nurture their national industries. Empirical evidence shows this
for the early catching-up experiences of Germany, the United States and Japan as well as for the more recent post-
World War II examples, from the early “Asian Tigers” of Korea and Taiwan to the current emergence of China. None of
the countries that strictly followed the Washington Consensus, in contrast, has achieved comparable success in terms
of technological upgrading, economic growth, and poverty reduction (Rodrik 2005; Chang 2009).
Chapter 1
Green Industrial Policy: Accelerating Structural Change Towards Wealthy Green Economies
3. the urgency to achieve structural change within claim that ambitious caps would threaten their
12 a short period of time, to preclude the risk of international competitiveness in order to keep the
catastrophic environmental tipping points cap high and the price of use rights low; and they
4. enhanced uncertainty due to long time hori- ask for assignment of free use rights. As govern-
zons of some transformations as well as ments do not want to harm their national indus-
dependence on policy changes tries, cap-and-trade systems so far have often
5. additional policy interfaces and therefore the failed to set ambitious caps (Helm 2010; IPCC 2014).
need for particularly encompassing policy Environmental taxes, in contrast, do not guaran-
coordination tee an upper limit to resource use or pollution
6. a motivation to manage global commons, because industry’s readiness to pay taxes defines
such as the atmosphere and oceans, for long how much they will reduce that resource use or
term sustainability, which may not always be pollution. But taxes have several advantages. As
aligned with immediate national interests. they are directly set by a government authority,
the additional cost for firms is more predictable.
In what follows, we will address each of these Also, taxes create a double dividend as they not
defining features one by one. only reduce environmental impacts but also raise
revenues for the government. These can be used
4.1. THE IMPORTANCE OF to reduce other taxes or increase government
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES spending, both of which help to build societal
support for environmental tax reforms. Finally,
The most obvious specificity of green indus- taxes are easier to implement than cap-and-trade
trial policy is that it aims to correct the failure systems, making them particularly attractive for
of markets to reflect the social costs of envi- developing countries (Schlegelmilch et al. 2017,
ronmentally harmful production. For compa- this volume).
nies investing in green technologies, the private
return lies significantly below the social return, As market instruments that encourage entre-
resulting in underinvestment. Quoted in The preneurial search and cost-effective allocation,
Guardian Newspaper, regarding his report for the both cap-and-trade and environmental taxes are
UK government, Stern tells us “Climate change is increasingly being applied internationally. For
a result of the greatest market failure the world several reasons, however, pricing environmental
has seen” (Benjamin 2007; Stern 2007). Hence the goods is not sufficient (Fay et al. 2015). One limi-
theoretical case for applying industrial policies tation is that there may be other market failures
to accelerate and upscale investments in green hampering green transformations–for example
technologies is even stronger than it would be for those related to incomplete information, lack
other technologies. of coordination or inadequate appropriability of
research and development investments. Another
To close the gap between private and social limitation consists in ethical concerns about pric-
returns the first-best solution would be to price ing. Not everyone would agree with the basic idea
the use of environmental goods, such as water or that everything nature provides can be expressed
clean air. This has a big advantage: market actors in monetary values. These critics hold, for exam-
can use their ingenuity to find the most cost-ef- ple, that the preferences of future generations
fective way to consume less of these goods. There cannot be fully reflected in market prices. In
are basically two ways that governments can addition, first-best policy instruments may not be
attach prices to environmental goods: cap-and- available for political or administrative reasons.
trade systems and environmental taxes on
resource consumption or emissions. In cap-and- Hence policy mixes are usually required that
trade systems, governments define an upper limit combine market-based instruments, regulations,
for the use of a resource or emissions and then capacity building, subsidies and other compo-
distribute or auction use rights among economic nents in various ways. The right combination
actors, which can then be traded. This encour- depends on country conditions, such as what
ages all participants to explore and implement degree of policy complexity can be handled
the most cost-effective solutions6. Defining the and how well the government is insulated from
cap and allocating use rights, however, is not easy lobbying pressure. Also, governments need
for political reasons. Polluter lobbies typically to anticipate the trade-offs between pricing
6 For the case of climate change mitigation, Cramton et al. (2017) convincingly argue why a global carbon price would
be much more effective than the current practice of individual pledges with weak review mechanisms. Rather than
depending on altruism it would create a reciprocal common commitment, whereby “each country would commit to
placing charges on carbon emissions sufficient to match an agreed global price formula.”
Chapter 1
Green Industrial Policy: Accelerating Structural Change Towards Wealthy Green Economies
environmental goods and competitiveness. competing in the market place. In contrast, the
Polluting industries will intentionally face higher logic of green transformations implies that where 13
costs and may therefore lose any advantage over environmentally sustainable solutions compete
competitors from other jurisdictions where the with harmful ones it is in the public interest to
same industries are not taxed. At the same time, accelerate the substitution rather than waiting
pushing industries early on to develop clean tech- for markets to reward commercially superior
nologies may result in early mover advantages if alternatives. Never and Kemp (2017, this volume)
other jurisdictions impose similar conditions with discuss how standards can be used to accelerate
a time lag (Porter and van der Linde 1995; Ambec the diffusion of green technologies.
2017, this volume).
Third, an important part of green industrial policy
is to proactively phase out harmful technologies.
4.2. SYSTEMATICALLY STEERING In some cases, such as when substances that
INVESTMENT BEHAVIOUR deplete the ozone layer or greenhouse gases are
concerned, it is not enough to promote the devel-
The overarching objective of bringing the econ-
opment and deployment of sustainable alterna-
omy back into a ‘safe operating space for human-
tives. Green industrial policy defines road maps
ity’ necessarily gives structural change a direction
and sets incentives to phase unsustainable tech-
(Rockström et al. 2009). First and foremost, tradi-
nologies out. Cosbey at al. (2017, this volume)
tional industrial policy aims at enhancing produc-
show how this can be done in practice.
tivity growth and incomes but, in most cases,
leaves it to market forces to find the most lucrative Fourth, while conventional industrial policy rarely
technologies and business models. Green indus- tries to affect consumer behaviour, influenc-
trial policy, by comparison, is driven by scientific ing purchase decisions is an important element
evidence of environmental threats. This implies of green industrial policy. Mandatory labelling
a much clearer picture of which technologies programmes may help to make markets transpar-
and business models are good or bad. Underlying ent and enable consumers to distinguish products
green industrial policy is the Pigouvian idea of with different environmental effects. Educational
steering investment behaviour systematically and programmes can encourage people to reuse and
permanently towards what governments conceive recycle things. However, it should be noted that
as environmentally sustainable (Spratt 2013:12). consumers do not respond perfectly to price
signals. Even when new products exist that are
This leads us to four peculiarities of green indus-
better in many ways and cheaper, many consum-
trial policy when it comes to issues of technol-
ers stick to the bad old alternatives because they
ogy choice and promotion: First, there needs to
do not understand the situation well, because
be agreement on which technologies are good
their neighbours have not changed or simply
for a sustainable future. This is far from trivial
out of force of habit. Green industrial policy can
because alternative solutions may exist, all with
use a wide range of options to encourage green
some trade-offs that imply difficult value judg-
consumption and shift markets using advertise-
ments. For example, from a decarbonisation
ments, nudges and green default options, among
perspective, biofuels are desirable substitutes for
other schemes. A rapidly growing literature
fossil fuels, but their commercial production may
shows how insights from behavioural science can
lead to monocultures, loss of biodiversity, higher
be used to influence consumers in a pro-environ-
food prices and increased pressure on unutilized
mental way (Sunstein and Reisch 2013; Price 2014).
vulnerable land. In a similar vein, nuclear energy
and large-scale carbon capture and storage are
advocated by some as necessary elements of 4.3. URGENCY TO ACT FAST AND
decarbonisation strategies but rejected by others UPSCALE EXPERIMENTATION
for their inherent risk of large-scale contamina-
tion. What is desirable thus depends on value Some economic activities have strong impacts on
judgments, and political deals are needed to specific ecosystems or even on the entire Earth
define what merits support. System. These ecosystems have a certain capac-
ity to react to disturbances and return to their
Second, there is a case for subsidizing deploy- previous equilibrium state; but thresholds exist
ment of clean technologies, even beyond the beyond which such return is no longer possible
point where they break even with harmful tech- and systems may collapse, in some cases with
nologies. Traditional industrial policy would potentially catastrophic effects for life on Earth
foster technologies only at their infant stage (Lenton et al. 2008). It is thus truly vital to avoid
and withdraw support as soon as they start such tipping points.
Green Industrial Policy - Concept, Policies, Country Experiences