May 16 Dawn Editorial and Opinion

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Dawn Columns 16 May 2023


Editorial
Deadlock
Editorial Published May 16, 2023 Updated 8 minutes ago

IT was a strange sight to behold. Islamabad’s Red Zone, one of the most
sensitive and jealously guarded areas of the capital city, was besieged
yesterday by hordes of stick-wielding men without so much as a warning shot
being fired by the state. Islamabad Police — usually so zealous and trigger-
happy when facing down protesters — stood by sedately as individuals
backed by the sitting government first scaled and then broke through the
gates leading to the protected area. Section 144 of the Code of Criminal
Procedure — which prohibits the gathering of four or more persons in an
area — was still in effect in the capital, but for the first time, it seemed the
state had no interest in seeing it enforced. The interior minister, otherwise
quick to appear on TV screens whenever needed to ‘justify’ all manner of
highhanded means to ‘maintain public order’, was nowhere to be seen. To
top it off, the state quietly restored access to social media after days of
closure, seemingly to amplify the ‘reach’ of the event.

While our ruling classes are no strangers to the ‘rules for thee and not for me’ style
of governance, yesterday’s example was more than a little egregious. The
government is currently in violation of the Constitution over its refusal to hold due
elections to the KP and Punjab assemblies, yet it expects the Supreme Court to
play by the rules. It complains that the judiciary is ‘protecting’ Imran Khan, even as
it has the executive branch of the state — which ought to have been enforcing the
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law yesterday, without prejudice as to who had shown up to protest — acting in


complete subservience to it.

Elsewhere, inside the highest court of the land, the elections implementation
bench decided to give ‘negotiations’ another shot. It was clear from reports of the
proceedings that the judges were acutely aware of the developments unfolding
outside the Supreme Court’s walls. While talks are, indeed, the best solution to
Pakistan’s festering political crisis, there is very little hope that they can accomplish
much in this poisoned atmosphere. Instead, the chief justice’s decision to impose
another ‘second chance’ on politicians indicates that he may have come to the
realisation that his court should not have gotten tangled up in a fight that it
cannot control. With the government knocking loudly on its gates, it may not be
easy for the court to settle the matter — unless a full-court bench is formed to
break the current deadlock. With some actors looking to divide and ‘conquer’ the
Supreme Court, it is important for the top court now to show that it is united
within. The breakthrough the country needs might be in the chief justice’s hands;
will he deliver it?

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

LATESTPAKISTANOPINIONBUSINESS

Census concludes
Editorial Published May 16, 2023 Updated 9 minutes ago

WITH the seventh census wrapping up yesterday, officials have released the
provisional population figures tallied thus far. According to the numbers,
Pakistan is home to 246.5m people, an increase of nearly 40m souls as
compared to the 2017 head count. Expectedly, Punjab leads as the most

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populous federating unit, while Balochistan is the least populated province.


The exercise had been extended five times in order to facilitate the general
elections — whenever they are held. According to the census commissioner,
there will be no more extensions. However, as the final numbers emerge, the
million-dollar question arises: will the fresh head count be accepted by the
country’s multiple stakeholders? Or will it be dogged by controversy much as
the sixth census was, which resulted in the seventh exercise being held before
time?

Despite the fact that this was supposed to be the nation’s first digital census,
indicating minimal chances of fraud and manipulation, controversy was never far
from the head count. From government partners, such as the PPP and MQM, to
opposition parties, such as Jamaat-i-Islami, to nationalist parties in Sindh, there
was widespread criticism of the exercise by political actors, despite the
administration’s efforts to assuage concerns. For example, both the MQM and
Jamaat used the alleged undercounting of Karachi to protest against the lack of
transparency in the census. As per provisional figures, the megacity’s population
stands at 18.6m, a growth of only 2.55m since the 2017 census. Certainly, if the
heavy migration towards Sindh’s capital is anything to go by, the current figure is
debatable. At the other end, the JI has argued the ‘actual’ population of Karachi
should be around 35m. However, only independent demographers, with no
political agendas or vested interests, can comment on the authenticity of the
national head count. We cannot continue to have flawed censuses and conduct the
exercise prematurely because the previous count raised doubts. Perhaps the best
solution at this point is to accept the numbers as they stand, and work to improve
the process so that there are minimal complaints about the eighth census a decade
down the line. Continuous bickering about figures, and endless extensions will
delay elections further, and affect the planning process. Therefore, all political
forces need to make their reservations clear, accept the count and work towards
improving the enumeration process.

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

LATESTPAKISTANOPINIONBUSINESS

The highest mountain


Editorial Published May 16, 2023 Updated 10 minutes ago

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THREE Pakistani mountaineers raised the national flag at the highest point in
the world over the weekend, with the whole country basking in their
achievement. Sajid Sadpara became the first climber from Pakistan to scale
Mount Everest without supplemental oxygen and without the assistance of
porters — the first alpine-style ascent on the 8,848-metre peak this season.
Naila Kiani, a mother of two, became the second female mountaineer from
Pakistan, a decade after Samina Baig, to summit Everest. In the process, she
also became the first woman from the country to scale five eight-
thousanders. Naila is the first foreign climber to reach the top this season; her
expedition included compatriot Nadia Azad who also summited successfully.
The ascents came as the Everest routes were fixed for this season although
Sajid’s solo feat is remarkable — not only did he carry all his equipment
without help, he also set the route he took himself. It was a fitting tribute to
his late father Ali Sadpara, the legendary climber whose early ascents weren’t
recognised as he accomplished them as a porter.

Ali Sadpara died in 2021 while attempting a winter ascent of K2, his death
highlighting the plight of Pakistan’s mountaineers. Pakistan has seen a number of
climbers emerge in recent years, most notably Sajid, the trailblazing Samina and
Naila. There is also Shehroze Kashif, the 20-year-old attempting to become the
youngest in the world to climb all 14 eight-thousanders. He has climbed 10 so far.
He is among those who have raised Pakistan’s flag atop the world’s highest peaks
with very little government support. There is a pressing need for a mountaineering
school run by the Alpine Club of Pakistan, the country’s climbing federation. The
lack of corporate support for mountaineers is disappointing. But despite these
hurdles, public interest in the sport is growing, and a bit of support for the
climbers could go a long way in increasing Pakistan’s presence on top of the world.

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

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Opinion
LATESTPAKISTANOPINIONBUSINESS

Roots of the rage


Arifa Noor Published May 16, 2023 Updated 21 minutes ago

The writer is a journalist.

1x1.2x1.5x

FOR the world, war is another means to conduct politics, but in Pakistan, the
law is the only means to conduct politics. After a brief detour — via the
streets — it seems we are back to the courtrooms where every player is
jostling against the other. However, the outcome will be determined by
power. The Punjab polls, cases against Imran Khan and the new legal battles
to deal with those who went on a ‘rampage’ will all play out in the courts.

But even in the midst of these battles where the final outcome is far from clear, all I
have to offer are a few musings on the skirmishes so far.

Shape of change to come: The status quo, as it has played out for over a decade, is
becoming harder to sustain. This does not mean we are headed towards a major
turning point. While there are sceptics who think little will change, others are
certain everything is about to collapse. Both may be off the mark. Chances are
there will be some kind of a reset where change and continuity will go hand in
hand. One hopes this ‘change’ allows for some shift in the balance of power which

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is tilted heavily towards the establishment at the moment (or has done so
especially since 2008). But this will signal a recalibration rather than the end of the
infamous civil-military fault line which shapes Pakistani politics.

At the same time, change is not necessarily linear. The empire can strike back and
try to prolong the status quo. Its present instability is due to this and sustaining
the status quo for long will prove difficult.

Divisions within: Why is this status quo under threat? Demography, the economy,
international changes have all played a role, as has over a decade of multiple
television channel discussions about the importance of democracy and elections.
This has led to a split within the larger establishment — however one may want to
describe it. The earlier consensus of the privileged seems to be breaking down.
This larger establishment can be said to be Punjabi-dominated or one in which
traditional players such as the military, judiciary and the elite were willing to
collaborate; the judiciary’s aversion to providing cover to a delay in elections is a
case in point, as is the reluctance of most commentators to call for martial law
which was acceptable in the 1990s.

Another factor adding to the breakdown of the earlier consensus is because a core
constituency, which provided legitimacy to the military and its political role, has
shifted its support to the PTI — hence the growing criticism of the former in the
past one year.

Undoubtedly, there are moments when this does appear to be a fight for Punjab; a
fight which began with Nawaz Sharif and is now being led by Imran Khan. And
while sceptics pooh-pooh it for this very reason, commentators such as Umair
Javed argue this can have broader implications.

Yet, all the factors mentioned earlier would not have been so impactful or so
significant had it not been for the growing economic crisis. After all, one reason for
the primacy of the military establishment has been its ability to negotiate with the
rest of the world and ensure generous cash lines. But if these easy funds are no
longer available and the establishment is increasingly being seen as a leading
factor contributing to the instability, rather than ‘stability’, the fissures might grow.
Without the dollars to distribute, there is less space to keep big business in the
establishment’s corner; for the money from abroad has usually been used to pay
for subsidies and profit-making, compensating for the lack of policy continuity.

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Struggle to survive: However, it would be unfair to simply focus on the people and
groups at the top. This is not just about them. That the ordinary people have had
enough is evident. And this is linked less to Imran Khan than it is to the economic
situation; in fact, their anger has turned Khan into the popular force he is rather
than him having galvanised the people. The vandalism and violence on the streets
in recent days is also a result of this. The outrage and horror aside, citizens’ attacks
on symbols of the state is a serious indication of the latter’s legitimacy crisis and
should be of concern to those in privileged positions. To simply see this as the
work of one party’s planning would be to miss the woods for the trees.

There is a message for all of us in the videos of ordinary people stealing food items
from ‘Jinnah House’ in Lahore. In one short scene, a young man is putting a pack
of ketchup in his backpack and calling it maal-i-ghaneemat. Not a peacock or golf
sets or even strawberries, an exotic fruit by Pakistani standards. But just locally
manufactured ketchup. In another, someone is holding up a handful of frozen
falsas.

Both the ketchup and the frozen falsas should shake us allmore than the violence.
For we should be asking how such ordinary kitchen items became worth stealing,
or come to symbolise elite excess for those left behind in the economic
mismanagement.

Even the anger against the military is driven to an extent by economic hardship.
This anger predates 2022 — although it intensified considerably in the past year —
as the popular swing in favour of the PML-N after 2018 was also due to the chatter
about how ‘their’ meddling had led to inflation.With the change of government,
party positions too have changed but one target of public anger remains the same.
The violence of the past few days needs to be seen in this context as well.

If we have to condemn the vandalism against state symbols, we should do so with


some introspection. The suffering and anger of the people is our collective failure.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

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Too famished to sing paeans


Jawed Naqvi Published May 16, 2023 Updated 28 minutes ago

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

1x1.2x1.5x

A QUAINT Hindi metaphor nicely describes the results from the Karnataka
state polls that saw Prime Minister Modi’s religious bigotry roundly thwarted.
“Bhookhe bhajan na hoey, Gopala.” In other words: “Lord, much as we love
you, it’s not possible to sing your praise on an empty stomach.” Indeed, while
the BJP continued its communal rant against Muslims, their dress code, their
food culture, and promoted religious polarisation to dip into a cynically
assembled Hindu vote bank, the Congress stole a march on its opponent by
committing to poverty alleviation, promising free rice to the poor, useful
units of electricity, unemployment stipend for graduates and diploma
holders, and free bus travel for women across the state.

Every detail that Rahul Gandhi had culled from his long march was put into the
election manifesto. The party wouldn’t allow communal rhetoric by the BJP to shift
focus from the yawning rich-poor disparity, a major issue with India’s IT hub. It
squarely targeted crony capitalism for the mess, underscored by backing public ire
against pervasive corruption. Simultaneously, the Congress promised to deal firmly
with communal violence.

The promise rekindled the party’s lost habit to confront the Hindutva challenge
boldly on two fronts, economic and social, by rallying against crony capitalism and
poverty and a commitment to repair the social fabric damaged by BJP’s communal
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politics. Rewards came swiftly. Commitment to fight communalism saw traditional


Muslim votes shift from their traditional support for former prime minister Deve
Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) party. Its recent flirting with the BJP cost it dear, and
shored up the Congress percentage of vote share to over 43 per cent, roughly a
5pc rise from 2018. However, the BJP vote stayed more or less uniform at 36pc. In
other words, the Hindu right has kept its flock together, losing less than 0.5pc to
the Congress.

While the BJP studiously shunned them, the Congress fielded 15 Muslim
candidates of whom nine won. Symbolically and as material support to a hounded
community, the Congress promised to restore a 4pc quota of reservation for jobs
and admission in educational institutions for Muslims. The BJP had taken away the
quota marked for the community and split the 4pc equally between two Hindu
castes. Above all, the Congress promised to rein in vigilante assaults unleashed by
groups like the Bajrang Dal and lumpen street brawlers sponsored by Hindutva
minders. The Bajrang Dal is so called after Lord Rama’s heroic aide, Hanuman. An
interesting aside in the elections was Mr Modi’s last minute bid at the fag end of
the campaign to liken the Congress promise to shut down Bajrang Dal’s violence
as an insult to Hanuman, and on cue it became the main narrative on TV channels
loyal to the prime minister. The adverse results could be seen as a rebuke to Mr
Modi’s equating the lumpen group with a revered deity.

Every detail that Rahul Gandhi had culled from his long march was put
into the election manifesto.

Commonly known as ‘WhatsApp University’ its Muslim-baiting saw the BJP


inventing two Hindu characters from a particular caste, claiming they were the
ones who killed the Mysore ruler Tipu Sultan, the legendary challenger to British
rule. Tipu eventually fell in May,1799 to a joint force of the Marathas, British troops
and the army of the Nizam of Hyderabad. The BJP has been on a spree of
overturning historical facts or making them vanish from schoolbooks.

To restore the impugned books and revive intellectual vigour, or generally to


fortify the democratic institutions against future subversion, the opposition needs
to defeat Mr Modi in 2024. Analysts see the Karnataka results in which the
Congress has won an impressive 135 seats against the BJP’s 66 in a 224-seat
House, as a prelude to that end. Before the general elections, however, there
would be more contests later this year, in which the Congress faces the BJP.
Elections in Congress-ruled Rajasthan and BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh in particular
would be crucial pointers to the headwinds ahead.
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Winning back power from the BJP in a southern state is possibly easier than
fighting a communal challenge in a northern state. There is a clear north-south
divide in communal politics. When Indira Gandhi was routed in the post-
emergency elections in the north, the southern states stood resolutely with the
Congress in 1977. Mrs Gandhi began her revival from Karnataka, winning the Lok
Sabha seat vacated for her in Chikmaglur. A slogan mocked the Janata Party, which
collapsed with internal feuding soon after routing the Congress. “Ek sherni sao
langur. Chikmagalur bhai Chikmagalur.” (One tigress is enough to take on 100
monkeys. Thank you Chikmagalur.) Could Karnataka again revive the Congress
party’s fortunes?

The question can be framed differently. Would the magic of Rahul Gandhi’s long
march shored up by powerful local leaders in Karnataka replicate in, say, Madhya
Pradesh in a straight fight with the BJP? Also, the Congress is a house divided in
Rajasthan, where the chief minister confessed to taking help from a former BJP
counterpart to thwart an internal coup. Five years ago, the Congress managed to
significantly win a 39.3pc vote share, 6pc more than what it got in 2013 when it
won a paltry 21 seats. In comparison, the BJP’s votes went down from 45.2pc to
38.8pc, a difference of 6.4pc. Today, both are nearly at par. Much would depend on
how the Congress positions itself with other opposition parties. Would they be
able to arrive at a modus vivendi about their larger future soon, preferably with a
common minimum programme to avoid ideological logjam? Karnataka is a good
beginning, not least for the way the Congress has tackled attempts by the BJP to
introduce communal discourse. It stuck to secular issues. The question is: will the
northern voters be ready to sing paeans to anyone, on an empty stomach?

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

LATESTPAKISTANOPINIONBUSINESS

A state in chaos
Dr Niaz Murtaza Published May 16, 2023 Updated 30 minutes ago

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The writer is a political economist with a PhD from the University of California,
Berkeley.

1x1.2x1.5x

WITH Pakistanis in a ride combining a super-fast roller coaster and a merry-


go-round, one cannot resist asking how this cursed nation ended up here. It
has faced massive problems since 1947. But the last one year has been very
bad given the number of challenges, their intensity and duration.

More bleakly, for the first time no one seems in control during a period when
stability is especially needed. Instead, there is chaos under the heavens. The iron
fist that long imposed an unhealthy order is losing its grip and seems paralysed. A
unipolar system has suddenly become a multipolar one, with many stakeholders
pulling it in various directions. The main stakeholder, which is also a stick holder, is
unable to wield the stick to impose order as it did earlier.

The self-imposed umpire has never been this weak since 1971, when it presided
over the loss of a wing and lost control for five years. That loss came suddenly; this
one came slowly. The start came with the end of cosy ties with the US that
provided money, arms and political support for imposing autocracy. China will not
step in to fill the void. Ties with once pet extremists are now tense. Jihadists that
were tools to subjugate and indoctrinate society had to be leashed given FATF
issues.

But the biggest loss has come from the stormy tiff with the political sidekick
expected to serve as a weak façade in a hybrid system. The break followed Imran
Khan’s incompetence, maverick acts and desire for autonomy. It has forced the
umpire to go back to the PPP and PML-N whom it doesn’t like or trust either. It has
also caused the loss of countless loyal TV anchors and social media trolls that once
spread its narrative but who have now gone with Khan. Most crucially, it has lost its
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narrative to Khan who presents himself as even more anti-US, anti-India and
religious.

A unipolar system has become a multipolar one.

Autocratic forces control society through a mix of economic carrots and hegemony
where people willingly buy its narrative. This reduces the resort to expensive
inducements and brute violence to control society. Thus, the loss of narrative to
Khan increases transaction costs for the establishment in imposing its will. Finally,
the judiciary is also acting aloof and there are rumours of internal rifts within the
umpire’s ranks. Resultantly, tactics that always delivered in taming past pesky
politicians are failing against Khan; these include audio and video leaks, legal
cases, horse-trading, intimidation, jail visits and forced exile.

But nature abhors a vacuum and chaos; so order will soon emerge. Some naively
think this chaos reflects the end of an elite system and a better one will emerge.
However, that only happens where better forces are strong enough to take over,
and no such forces presently exist in Pakistan. Order will emerge with one or more
of the current forces — umpire, PDM and PTI — of the abhorrent status quo
winning. What are the possible paths back to order?

The scariest one is immense pressure by some among the umpires to put Khan
back in power. This may mean prolonged violence as in Yemen and Somalia; even
with peace there could be a set-up that ruins us politically, economically, socially
and externally. Luckily, the chances of this happening are slim. A second one is
martial law but that is unlikely too as the establishment would not want to bat on a
treacherous pitch with Khan bowling swinging yorkers. A third likely one is the
imposition of emergency under PDM to tame PTI, the judiciary and others in the
ranks. As the president and the judges may reject it, it will have to be imposed
unlawfully thus carrying the risk of Article 6 cases later. But that rarely occurs in
Pakistan. The start of this option may see a reshuffle within, then making the
dentist president and many judges toothless, disqualifying and jailing Imran and
rigging polls. It may give temporary stability but will lead to major losses later. It
would be an option that would have to be applied with inducements and brutal
power, which may be hard to do given the establishment’s current weakness and
the West’s backlash.

The best option, which is not impossible, are free polls and a level playing field. But
even this will not end instability or misrule as one of two inept forces — PTI (more
so) and PDM — will win. Neither will accept the other’s victory or let it rule
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peacefully. The PDM can run the current elite system until it collapses under the
weight of its unproductivity. The PTI can destroy it immediately but is too inept to
replace it with a better one. Thus, stability and good rule remain distant dreams.

The writer is a political economist with a PhD from the University of California,
Berkeley.

murtazaniaz@yahoo.com

Twitter: @NiazMurtaza2

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

LATESTPAKISTANOPINIONBUSINESS

Leveraging COP28
Aisha Khan Published May 16, 2023 Updated 32 minutes ago

The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.

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AS we gear up for the 28th Conference of Parties (COP) in December 2023, it


is important to remember that laggard momentum is no longer an option. It
is time to take stock not just of emission reduction commitments but of the
whole range of actions needed to ward off a gathering climate crisis.

The COP presidency plays an important role in navigating this complex and often
contentious process. This is a time for responding with urgency and tabling
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concrete, ambitious propositions for transformative adjustments. The UAE can


build on the momentum generated at the Petersberg Dialogue to articulate a
forward-looking focus on key areas and building alliances, including appointing
ministerial pairs to lead on consultations.

The UAE can steer the process to harvest key outcomes from partners and
strengthen its own climate offer. The G7 Leaders Summit (May 19-21) and the
Financing Pact Summit (June 23) are opportunities to leverage ministerial signals
for setting expectations from specific actors (Canada, the UK with the support of
France) especially on the phase-out of all fossil fuels and coal by 2030. Similarly,
efforts need to be made to ensure that leaders from G7, at the Summit for a New
Global Financial Pact, show willingness to lead coalitions driving international
financial reform, and draw up a joint roadmap for reform implementation and
overarching objectives, includingprivate finance.

This is an opportunity to ramp up pressure on new international climate


commitments to contribute to a Loss and Damage (L&D) fund, by mobilising
commitments for making a path-breaking pledge for the Green Climate Fund’s
replenishment. The COP28 president-designate, Dr Sultan Al-Jaber has already
expressed his concern on the delay in the delivery of $100 billion pledged in 2009
and its diminished value after 14 years. The estimated new adaptation cost of $1
trillion annually will not be an easy commitment to secure.

The list of ‘essential actions is long.

Leading by example, the UAE could pioneer innovative sources to secure reliable
financial flows for adaptation and loss and damage by making the first pledge to
the future L&D fund. This will help initiate a responsive move by other multilateral
actors. As host, the UAE can also convene discussions on defining indicators to set
trigger points for disbursing L&D finance, particularly in the form of drought and
water stress, to enable effective measurement and response in terms of new
funding.

Climate summits put greater responsibility on the host country to ratchet up its
climate offer to set the stage for negotiations. The UAE’s Nationally Determined
Contributions set a target equivalent to emissions of 13 per cent above its 2015
levels in 2030. However, the level of ambition required for a 1.5 degrees Celsius
compatible emissions pathway is a 36-39pc reduction. There is a clear opportunity
here for the UAE to leverage its diplomatic influence through credible actions and
urge all countries to comply with the UNFCCC executive secretary’s call,to revisit
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and strengthen their 2030 targets, aligning them with the Paris Agreement
temperature goal.

Building on the COP theme of “a zero carbon and resilient world” and
“partnerships to promote progress,” the UAE could leverage its influence over the
oil and gas sector to accelerate the global energy transition towards renewable
energy. It is also a diplomatic opportunity for capitalising on the political energy
around reform of the financial system to broker MDBs’ support for mobilising
guarantees and regional platforms to support the energy transition.

COP28 needs to broker a policy and finance package on food and land use.
Governments need to reconfirm commitments to deliver nature-based finance
under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and agree to work
towards scaling-up private sector contributions by expanding payments for
ecosystem services.

The time is right for triggering debate on the MDBs’ financial models and aligning
them with public good, advancing debt relief of bilateral, multilateral and privately
held debt to free significant fiscal space for investments in the transformation, and
making better use of their toolbox, especially guarantees and expansion of lending
capacity.

The list of ‘essential actions’ is long; the outcome will once again fall short of
expectation. But given the magnitude of the threat, the UAE must push parties to
develop, deploy and disseminate technologies and adopt policies to achieve deep
decarbonisation in the energy sector. This should be accompanied by a strong
demand for increased public and private investments to mobilise quantity and
quality of finance for climate action, including tripling MDB/DFI finance from
$60bn to $180bn in the next five years.

The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.

aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, May 16th, 2023

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