Total No. of Questions : 5] SEAT No.

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P-3765 [Total No. of Pages : 4

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302 : GC-12 : DECISION SCIENCE

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(2019 Pattern) (Semester - III)

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Time : 2½ Hours] 6/0 13 [Max. Marks : 50
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Instructions to the candidates:
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1) Each question carries 10 marks.

2) Graph paper will lnot be provided.
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3) Use of non-scientific calculator is allowed.
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Q1) Solve any five of the following : [5 × 2 = 10]
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a) Define optimistic time estimate in PERT.
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b) Enlist different queue discipline in queuing theory.
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c) What is saddle point in Game theory?
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d) Define Markov Chain.

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e) Mention assumptions underlying Linear Programming Problem (LPP).

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f) Write different methods of initial solution to transportation problem.

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g) Write condition for balanced assignment problem.

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h) What do you mean by optimal solution in solving transportation problem?
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Q2) Solve any two of the following : [2 × 5 = 10]

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a) Solve the following LPP by graphical solution

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Max Z= 9x1 + 3x2

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Subject to
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2x1 + 3x2  13
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2x1 + x2  5
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x1 +x2  0
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 b) Explain the steps in solving transportation problem.

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c) Explain the use of various tools of decision theory in today’s business

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environment.

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Q3) Solve any one of the following : [1 × 10 = 10]

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a) Three brands of product P, Q and R having market share as 30%, 30%

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and 40% respectively. Customers shift their brands. Brand switching
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matrix every quarter is given below.
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To
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From P Q R
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P 50% 30% 20%

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Q 20% 70% 10%
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R 20% 20% 60%
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Apply concept of Markov Chain to find market share at the end of First
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& Second quarter.

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b) Using the following cost matrix determine i) Optimal job assignment

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ii) Optimal cost assignment.

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Cost ('000 Rs.)

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Job
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Machinist 1 2 3 4 5
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A 10 3 3 2 8
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B 9 7 8 2 7
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D 3 5 8 2 4
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E 9 10 9 6 10
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Q4) Solve any one of the following : [1 × 10 = 10]

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a) XYZ company is considering three options for managing its data

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processing operations: continue with own staff, outsourcing or the use

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of combination. The annual profit of each option depends on demand as

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follows :

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Profit

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Staffing Demand ('000 Rs.)

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option 6/0 13 High Medium Low
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Own staff 650 650 600
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Outsourcing 900 600 300

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Combination 800 650 500

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Determine Optimal strategy for

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i) Maxi-min
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ii) Laplace
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iii) Hurwicz ( = 0.6) &
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iv) Regret criterion.
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b) The machine operator has to perform two operations, turning and threading
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on a number of different jobs. The time required to perform these operation

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on these machines is given below.

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Determine sequencing of jobs to minimize the total time. Also find idle
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time of operations on both machines.

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Jobs 1 2 3 4 5 6
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Turning time 03 12 05 02 09 11
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(in min)
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Threading time 08 10 10 06 03 01
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(in min)
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Q5) Solve any one of the following : [1 × 10 = 10]

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a) Vijay has started new retail outlet in the mid of the market. In market there
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is business & competition, therefore survival of new outlet is very rare

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chance of survival is almost 5%. Vijay has started such 7 new retail outlet.
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Find out the probability i) no shop will survive and ii) exactly 5 shops will
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survive.
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 b) The three estimates for activities of a project are given below :

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Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 3-5 4-6 5-6

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Pessimistic 7 7 12 15 1 8 7

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duration

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Most likely 6 1 4 6 1 2 4

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duration

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Optimistic
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duration
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Draw network diagram. Find out Critical path & Project duration. Estimate
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expected Standard deviation of critical path.

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