Mr.

Ely: 19th November, 2023 Market Analysis

Currency: Previous week Forecast Market Expected
Data/News: Sentiment technical
- HOUSING WILL BE KEY
USD TO FURTHER INFLATION Positive Overall -ve Sell
PROGRESS Interest Change
- SMALL BUSINESS
CONDITIONS, HOUSING with high
SECTOR, LOWER-INCOME number of long
HOUSEHOLDS MAY BE
SIGNALING BROADER trades
STRESS AHEAD.
- THERE'S A RISK THAT
CONTINUED DEMAND
MOMENTUM COULD
SLOW THE PACE OF
DISINFLATION.
-Progress On Inflation
Continues, But Still Have A
Way To Go.
- IF WAR IN MIDDLE EAST
SPREAD, DROVE UP PRICE
OF OIL, FED WOULD
HAVE TO TAKE THAT
INTO ACCOUNT.
- FED'S RATE HIKES,
BALANCE SHEET RUNOFF
HAVE TIGHTENED U.S.
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS,
HELPED REDUCE
INFLATION.
- INCREASED
MULTIFAMILY HOUSING
SUPPLY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EXEPECTED FURTHER
REDUCTION IN
INFLATION.

CAD Mixed data Negative Overall Positive Sell

Interest Change
with high
number of short
trades
EURO - A cut in European Negative Overall +ve Sell
Central Bank interest change
interest rates won’t ( short term
with high buy )
be happening in the
near future, number of long
according to trades
Bundesbank
 President Joachim
Nagel.
- U.K. Treasury chief
GBP Jeremy Hunt says the
Negative Overall +ve Sell
government can afford Interest Change ( short term
to lower some taxes with high buy )
now that inflation is
falling
number of short
- Ramsden warned trades
that “services
inflation remains
very high at 6.6%,
which indicates more
persistence in
inflationary
pressures” The
weakness of the
economy also makes
it more susceptible to
inflation
CHF - he Swiss National Positive Overall +ve interest Short term
Bank will monitor the change with high
development of number of short buy
inflation closely in trades (potential
the coming weeks
ahead of its next
buys)
meeting in December.
- "We emphasised
that price stability
may not yet be
ensured. Thus, we
will not hesitate to
tighten monetary
policy further if
necessary," Jordan
said at a central bank
conference in Zurich.
AUD -Positive data Negative Overall +ve Short term
Interest Change Sell
with high (potential
number of short
trades
buys)
NZD Positive data Negative Overall -ve Short term
Interest Change Sell
with high (potential
number of short
trades
buys)
JPY -Mixed data Negative Overall +ve Sell
interest change
with high
number of short
trades
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