Mr.

Ely: 5th November, 2023 Market Analysis

Currency: Previous week Forecast Market Expected
Data/News: Sentiment technical
-Political heat ahead of
USD 2024 Nov. presidential Positive Overall +ve Buy
elections. Interest Change
-Concerns about an
economic slowdown are with high
rising as long-term U.S. number of long
interest rates reached a
16-year peak of 5% in trades
October, alongside
increasing Treasury
yields.
-War ongoing.
-Mixed news data with
increased unemployment
rate and –ve NFP (may
cause a short term effect )
-, Powell indicated that
recent strength may be
elevated due to post-
pandemic normalization
in immigration, along with
improvement in labor
force participation
- Fed appears happy to
remain on hold, and watch
and see how the economy
evolves early next year.
The pace and extent of the
U.S. slowdown will likely
dictate future rate
decisions.
-Fed chair Jerome Powell
believes the U.S. economy
is capable of growing
faster than usual right
now, without inflationary
pressure.
- If the economy's
potential is rising
unusually quickly right
now because of supply-
side improvements, it
allows the Fed more room
to let growth run and less
of a need to trigger a
slowdown to bring
inflation in line.

CAD Negative Negative Overall Positive Sell

Interest Change
with high
 number of short
trades
EURO -Mounting interest Negative Overall -ve Sell
rates in Europe interest change
have induced
with high
economic
downturn. number of long
- Negative data. trades
- With an impaired
GBP labour market, interest
Negative Overall -ve Sell
rates would have to Interest Change
remain higher for with high
longer than would
otherwise be the case.
number of short
- The MPC expects trades
inflation to fall sharply
over the rest of 2023
and the start of 2024
CHF -Likelihood of Positive Overall Negative
inflationary interest change
pressure above with high
2% target. number of short
trades
AUD Mixed news Negative Overall +ve Sell
data Interest Change
with high
number of short
trades
NZD Mixed news Negative Overall Positive Sell
data Interest Change
with high
number of short
trades
JPY Shouldn’t Tie Negative Overall +ve Sell
Yen Moves To interest change
BoJ Policy with high
Decision number of short
(unpredictive) trades

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