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Europe - October 2023
Europe - October 2023
Europe
October 2023
1.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In this edition, the key themes for the next 12 months are unpacked and discussed in detail below this summary:
1. Forthcoming elections fuel uncertainty in immigration policy. Businesses and individuals must
understand the impact of elections and the full breadth of forthcoming immigration policy changes to
inform their business and talent acquisition strategies. Beyond navigating uncertain election
outcomes, misinformation can also spread in the press and social media. For instance, the EU’s
forthcoming pre-travel authorisation (ETIAS) for visa-exempt nationals has been mischaracterised as
a visa requirement; and the German ‘Opportunity Card’ has been referred to in the media as a
‘lottery’, immediately leading to associations with the well-known U.S. Green Card Lottery, and
incorrectly representing it as a quicker path to German residency.
2. Talent attraction strategies are shifting. With the numerous forthcoming immigration policy
changes, organisations must balance business needs with employee preferences. Rising
government fees and the complexity of immigration processes require businesses to re-assess the
location of their entities and employees. Companies, who in the past have not looked at the cost of
relocations as a deciding factor, are now shifting focus and re-evaluating every relocation and
assignment. Many businesses, meanwhile, have slowed or frozen talent acquisition – with recent
economic challenges, and the current AI revolution, affecting decision making. Yet governments
throughout Europe are opening the door to skilled workers as part of addressing tight labour markets.
Businesses should be aware that immigration policy is likely to remain in flux and figure prominently in the
narrative of several European elections taking place in 2023 and 2024. A Eurobarometer survey in June 2023
showed that migration ranks among the top 3 most important issues for EU citizens. Elections to watch in the
coming 12 months include the following:
Spain’s July 2023 parliamentary elections have left the country in political limbo. The anticipated
conservative parliamentary majority did not materialise, with the far right-wing Vox party losing seats
(suggesting a potential electoral ceiling for far right-wing politics in Europe). With no decisive winner, the
political situation must be resolved either via a patchwork of political coalitions; or the more emphatic
expedient of repeat elections in early 2024 (mirroring 2015-16 and 2019). Spain’s parliament has twice
rejected bids by the head of the centre-right Popular Party (which came first in the election) to form a
government. The leader of the socialist party (which came second in the elections) may now try his hand.
This political opacity will likely reduce Spain’s capacity to proactively drive change during its current term
as president of the European Union Council (expiring on December 31, 2023).
Slovakia held a snap parliamentary election on September 30, 2023, following the collapse of the
incumbent government in late 2022 (with a caretaker government helming the controls ever since).
Robert Fico's populist party won the vote, but will need to establish a coalition in order to govern. Current
potential stablemates include the left-wing Hlas (Voice) party and the nationalist Slovak National Party.
Fico’s campaign included anti-migration rhetoric and criticism of open travel under Europe’s Schengen
policy. He is pushing for internal border controls to be established with Hungary – citing irregular
migration. In 2024, the country will vote for its president.
Poland will have its parliamentary elections on October 15, 2023, with both the ruling nationalist party
and some centrist opposition politicians playing on anti-immigration sentiment (especially targeting
religious and ethnic minorities). At the regional level, Poland and Hungary have been holding out against
an EU deal on relocating migrants. Poland may hold a referendum on this deal on the same day as its
parliamentary election.
The Netherlands will hold snap general elections in November 2023. In July 2023, the country’s coalition
government collapsed amid internal disagreement about proposed restrictions on refugee family
reunification.
Furthermore, there is currently a curious human-resources duality. Many businesses have slowed, or even
frozen, talent acquisition – opting instead for lean structures, with workforces and processes often being
streamlined. Several organisations are waiting to see what is over the AI-revolution horizon (further discussed
in our Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 Worldwide Immigration Trends Reports) before they make any significant pivots.
The significant economic headwinds of the last few years have not helped either. Yet, conversely,
governments throughout Europe are relaxing skilled worker immigration pathways, seeking to attract talent
amid tight labour markets in several sectors. Governments have effectively announced that they are ‘open for
business’, even as the private sector opts for a holding pattern.
Image from Employment up and labour market slack down in Q1 2023, Eurostat (June 16, 2023)
Delays in processing further complicate the ability of businesses to attract and retain foreign talent, leading
countries to introduce varying and wide-ranging immigration measures through to extensive national and EU
immigration reforms. Examples include:
Finland has announced it will reduce immigration numbers and raise the bar for work permits as well as
residency and citizenship applications.
Despite proposing easier EU Blue Card processes, and faster processing times for highly qualified
applicants, Sweden is seeking to reduce immigration through other avenues. Income requirements for
certain foreign national workers will likely double in November 2023; the government is considering
implementing more stringent requirements for citizenship and permanent residence; and the government
has launched an awareness campaign to discourage migrants from entering.
As part of its strategy to fund pay-rises for public sector workers, in October 2023, the United Kingdom
increased work and visit visa fees by 15 percent; and study visa fees by 35 percent. The main
immigration health surcharge rate will likely increase to GBP 1,035 (from the current GBP 624), and the
discounted variant (for people under 18, students, and Youth Mobility Schemes participants) will likely
increase to GBP 776 (from the current GBP 470). The surcharge hikes remain subject to parliamentary
approval – but are expected to be implemented by late 2023. Additionally, in early 2024, UK authorities
will increase substantially the fines for employers hiring, and landlords hosting, migrants who lack the
relevant immigration permissions. These changes are part of broader efforts to deter irregular migration.
Opportunity Card. A points-based ‘Opportunity Card’ will be created. This will offer to eligible applicants
a one-year renewable residence permit for the purpose of seeking employment in Germany (and will
allow cardholders to work up to 20 hours a week during this period). Relevant criteria will include
education, work experience, language skills, connection to Germany and age.
More relaxed vocational skill pathways. Work-permit pathways for applicants with vocational
experience will be relaxed, with requirements regarding German language skills and recognition of
educational qualifications being reduced. Furthermore, foreign nationals will be able to undertake any role
for which they are qualified; as opposed to being restricted to roles specifically linked to their formal
education.
EU Blue Card easier to obtain; more attractive. Information technology and educational professionals
with sufficient vocational experience will be allowed to apply for an EU Blue Card even if they lack formal
education. The bill will also decrease the minimum gross annual salary for the EU Blue Card (a visa
regime that targets skilled workers). Separately, EU Blue Card holders (whose card was issued by other
EU member states) will enjoy greater work mobility rights within Germany.
Relaxed permanent residency requirements. The period of residence in Germany necessary to qualify
for permanent residence will also be reduced. Skilled workers will be able to acquire permanent
residence after three years (down from four years); while EU Blue Card holders will be able to acquire
permanent residence after 27 months (down from 33 months).
‘Western Balkans Regulations’ to continue; quota increased. The ‘Western Balkans Regulations’ will
be extended indefinitely. The program grants nationals of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the
Republic of Northern Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia access to temporary work visas in Germany,
provided that the applicant has a job offer from a German employer. The annual quota will also increase
from 25,000 to 50,000.
Through attracting foreign talent via reducing immigration barriers for skilled workers, Germany (like other
countries globally) is seeking to address a skilled labour shortage that is slowing economic growth. In June
2023, Germany’s Federal Labour Agency reported labour shortages across one-sixth of surveyed
professions. Several industries experiencing shortages – such as information technology, nursing and
teaching – can be expected to benefit from these policy changes.
Countries with online applications systems for their main work permits
Key:
Orange: part of the main immigration process can be submitted electronically (email or other)
– Regulation of hybrid arrangements. Several countries (the United Kingdom, Malta, Slovakia,
Belarus and Greece) require hybrid-working arrangements to be indicated in any employment
contract associated with an immigration application. Ireland’s notification requirements go one
step further: allowing authorities to inspect home office addresses (provided they get employer
and employee consent). Lastly, Poland’s Labour Inspectorate is conducting a root-and-branch
survey of the remote-working landscape.
– Multilateral social security agreement for regulating cross-border remote workers. In the
absence of specific EU rules, 19 European countries (with Slovenia joining the agreement after
the fact) have signed up to a new framework agreement regarding social security rules for cross-
border remote workers. Under the agreement, employees who work for an employer in one
signatory state but who reside and partially telework in another signatory state can remain
affiliated with the social security system of their employer’s country provided that they spend less
than 50% of their total working time in their country of residence.
– Scrutiny of ‘Employers of Record’ arrangements. Employers of Record (EOR) are third-party
organisations which assume the formal responsibilities for employing a client’s employee while
overseas. Businesses use such arrangements to effectively ‘post’ foreign national employees to
premises in countries where national law precludes such postings or where employers face
difficulties in sponsoring work authorisations. Currently, the Netherlands is the only EU country
to formally regulate and monitor EORs. Nonetheless, additional scrutiny of these arrangements is
expected – which are viewed by some countries as a loophole to remote working arrangements.
– Digital nomad visa updates. The Digital Nomad Visa (DNV) regulatory framework continues to
be formalised and refined, while restrictions on DNVs in the context of the war in Ukraine
continue.
In July 2023, the Czech Republic introduced a digital nomad program, under which
eligible foreign nationals can obtain visas allowing them to stay in the Czech Republic
while they either telework for their home employer or work as a self-employed freelancer.
In Montenegro, eligible digital nomads can now apply for either a long-term Digital
Nomad Permit (for up to four years) or a shorter-term D Visa (up to 180 days in a one-
year period).
In April 2023, Spain increased regulations regarding digital nomads, requiring validation
of degrees (for regulated professions like medicine, dentistry and law) and professional
training (though this is subject to authority discretion).
Estonia ceased issuing DNVs to Belarussian and Russian citizens in April 2023, joining
countries like Latvia in limiting DNVs in the context of the war in Ukraine.
The development of online platforms that would allow the electronic submission, storage, and inter-
agency sharing of immigration applications, documents and information (including immigration status, as
well as biometric and security-related data).
The use of algorithms for automated decision-making for certain types of immigration applications, which
is expected to feature prominently in the functioning of the UK ETA scheme (currently scheduled for a
late 2023 commencement).
An enhanced user experience for applicants.
Amplified coordination, distribution and sharing of information and data amongst agencies, improving
immigration and security enforcement outcomes.
Two years on, several proposed measures are now in force, including:
Application processes for European Economic Area nationals and in-country skilled workers are now fully
digital.
The online skilled worker eligibility checker has been launched.
The digital use (and reuse) of biometric data has expanded, with further expansion envisaged.
The pre-travel ETA scheme is scheduled to start in October 2023, and will be gradually scaled up
throughout 2024.
The sponsor management system is expected to become fully digital by 2025 (with pilot features being
rolled out across 2023 and 2024). The system will be accessible through a single online portal, allowing
sponsors to update their details online while also enabling various government departments (such as
immigration, tax and corporate regulatory bodies) to conduct a range of checks online, many of which will
be automatic.
Physical biometric data cards are scheduled to be entirely phased out by 2025 in favour of a fully digital
biometric system.
Certainly, there have been teething issues, with general complaints about tech issues. Additionally, broader
anomalies in the immigration system undermine the efficiency dividends of digitisation. For instance, despite
being able to file digitally, in-country dependants still have no right to ask for ‘priority service’ (which would
reduce waiting times from eight weeks to one week), thus subjecting applicants to undue delays. On balance,
though, the United Kingdom’s digitisation programme is moving forward at a sufficient pace.
The increasingly digitised architecture of the UK immigration system is part of broader UK efforts to enhance
compliance with immigration rules as well as improving the monitoring and enforcement of such compliance.
Employers may be understandably wary that such changes would increase their range of compliance
obligations. After all, digitisation gives authorities the power to impose and monitor a wider range of
compliance requirements.
Potential Crises
Türkiye: Kurdish population in the east; armed tensions occasionally flare up.
Abkhazia (Georgia); South Ossetia (Georgia): Unrecognized breakaway regions with occasional
armed conflict.
Gibraltar: post-Brexit passports issue, with the United Kingdom and Spain both seeking jurisdiction over
passport control.
To access worldwide trends and projections, order the Worldwide Immigration Trends Report here.
Germany is planning to introduce points-based ‘green cards’, The Economic Times (September 9,
2022), available at https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/migrate/germany-is-planning-to-introduce-
points-based-green-cards/articleshow/94089751.cms?from=mdr
Germany reports labor shortage in one-sixth of professions, AP News (June 2, 2023), available at
https://apnews.com/article/germany-labor-shortages-brazil-8be4a0cd14b9dcd55a2f9ebf4d1d0cae
Inquiry report on knowledge requirements for a permanent residence permit presented, Government
Offices of Sweden (May 30, 2023), available at https://www.government.se/press-releases/2023/05/inquiry-
report-on-knowledge-requirements-for-a-permanent-residence-permit-presented/
Swedish government to double income requirement for immigrants, Euractiv (May 5, 2023), available
at https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/swedish-government-to-double-income-requirement-for-
immigrants/
New Plan for Immigration: legal migration and border control strategy statement 2021 (accessible
web version), UK Government (May 24, 2021), available at
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-plan-for-immigration-legal-migration-and-border-
control/new-plan-for-immigration-legal-migration-and-border-control-strategy-statement-accessible-web-
version
Italy to grant work permits to 425k non-EU workers, The Telegraph (July 8, 2023), available at
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/08/italy-grants-work-permits-425k-non-eu-migrant-workers/
What's in the French government's new immigration bill?, Le Monde (February 1, 2023), available at
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/02/01/what-s-in-the-french-government-s-new-immigration-
bill_6014005_7.html
Finland's incoming government to reduce immigration, Reuters (June 16, 2023), available at
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-incoming-government-reduce-immigration-2023-06-16/
Finland's new government announces 'paradigm shift' with immigration crackdown, France 24 (June
16, 2023), available at https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230616-finland-s-new-government-
announces-paradigm-shift-to-clamp-down-on-immigration
ETIAS: US nationals will need a visa to travel to Europe, The Independent (July 27, 2023) available at
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/etias-visa-travel-europe-2024-b2382338.html
Spain election: Conservative boss Feijóo’s numbers don’t add up, Politico (July 26, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-election-alberto-nunez-feijoo-popular-party/
Door opens for Sánchez as Spanish lawmakers reject Feijóo’s PM bid again, Politico (September 29,
2023), available at https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-lawmakers-reject-alberto-nunez-feijoo-second-bid-
become-pm-election-pedro-sanchez/
Spain's conservatives fail to form government, clearing way for Socialists, Reuters (September 29,
2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spains-conservative-leader-feijoo-assumes-
defeat-premiership-bid-2023-09-29/
Europe swings right — and reshapes the EU, Politico (June 30, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-giorgia-meloni-europe-swings-right-and-reshapes-the-eu/
Why Belgium may be about to break up, Politico (July 21, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-break-up-flanders-wallonia-tom-van-grieken-vlaams-belang-far-right/
Polish politicians attack migrants for electoral gain, Politico (July 9, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-politicians-donald-tusk-attack-migrants-for-electoral-gain/
Mark Rutte era comes to an end as Dutch elections loom, Politico (July 10, 2023), available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-netherlands-vvd-era-comes-to-an-end-as-he-quits-politics/
Slovakia PM quits and is replaced by caretaker as political crisis deepens, The Guardian (May 8,
2023) available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/08/slovakia-pm-quits-replaced-caretaker-
political-crisis-deepens
Slovakia elections: Populist party wins vote but needs allies for coalition, BBC News (October 1,
2023) available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66972984
Slovakia’s populist party opposed to Ukraine aid wins vote, Al Jazeera (October 1, 2023) available at
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/1/pro-russia-party-claims-victory-in-slovakia-election
Slovakia's Fico: border checks with Hungary a priority for new government, Reuters (October 1, 2023)
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/slovakias-fico-border-checks-with-hungary-priority-new-
government-2023-10-01/
Europe chart of the week, Economist Intelligence Unit (June 9, 2023) available at
https://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=583310441&Country=Spain&topic=Politics&subtopic=Fo_1
Why Belgium may be about to break up, Politico (July 21, 2023) https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-
break-up-flanders-wallonia-tom-van-grieken-vlaams-belang-far-
right/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=Why%20Belgium%20may%20be%20about%
20to%20break%20up
Australian PM keen to ink EU free trade agreement 'as soon as possible', Reuters (September 10,
2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/australian-pm-keen-ink-eu-free-trade-agreement-as-soon-
possible-2023-09-10/
How the EU can enlarge, Politico (July 24, 2023), available at https://www.politico.eu/article/european-
union-membership-enlargement-turkey-albania-north-macedonia-montenegro-ukraine-moldova/
Brussels rejects Erdoğan's demand: NATO membership and EU accession are two 'separate'
processes, EuroNews (July 10, 2023) available at https://www.euronews.com/my-
europe/2023/07/10/brussels-rejects-erdogans-offer-eu-accession-and-nato-membership-are-two-separate-
processe
Erdogan links Sweden's NATO membership to Turkey's EU accession, Reuters (July 10, 2023),
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/erdogan-links-swedens-nato-membership-turkeys-eu-
accession-2023-07-10/
Why Turkey changed its stance on Sweden’s NATO membership, Al Jazeera (July 11, 2023), available
at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/why-turkey-changed-its-stance-on-swedens-nato-
membership-2
Turkey agrees to support Sweden’s Nato application, The Guardian (July 10, 2023), available at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/10/turkey-sweden-nato-application-proceed-erdogan
Turkey urges Sweden to act over terrorism for NATO membership support, Reuters (July 21, 2023),
available at https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-urges-sweden-act-over-terrorism-nato-membership-
support-2023-07-21/
Sweden hails historic step as Turkey backs NATO bid, BBC News (July 11, 2023), available at
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66162513
Sweden's NATO accession and Turkey's bid to buy F-16 jets should be kept separate, Erdogan says,
Reuters (September 10, 2023), available at https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-accession-
turkeys-bid-buy-f-16-jets-should-be-kept-separate-erdogan-2023-09-10/
EU spells out ‘homework’ for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia – and for itself, Euractiv (June 22, 2023),
available at https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement-neighbourhood/news/eu-spells-out-homework-
for-ukraine-moldova-georgia-and-for-itself/
Brussels to extend EU single market benefits to western Balkans, Financial Times (May 31, 2023),
available at https://www.ft.com/content/ae7f5bf4-a0ff-4a6d-8ab0-126419dac538
Putin has revived the EU’s dreams of enlargement, Financial Times (June 8, 2023), available at
https://www.ft.com/content/ef6d8575-149a-4f9f-a450-30e7da9d706b
Von der Leyen wants Bulgaria, Romania in Schengen ASAP, Politico (September 13, 2023) available at
https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-bulgaria-and-romania-in-schengen-without-any-further-delay/
Tunisia-EU migration: Deal signed to strengthen borders, BBC News (July 17, 2023), available at
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66222864
Tunisia pact a ‘blueprint’ for new ‘cash for migrant’ deals, says EU chief, Euractiv (June 28, 2023),
available at https://www.euractiv.com/section/migration/news/tunisia-pact-a-blueprint-for-new-cash-for-
migrant-deals-says-eu-chief/
www.fragomen.com