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  • Topic-4 Exercise

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    Yati Htun
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    This document contains 3 exercises involving calculating conditional probabilities: 1. The first exercise calculates the conditional frequency (CF) of intersections and unions of events. It provides 3 examples of CF calculations. 2. The second exercise calculates the probability of testing positive for HIV given a positive test result. 3. The third exercise calculates the probability that a dog inside went off, given an animal inside went off. It provides the probabilities of different events and uses them to calculate the desired probability.

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    Topic-4 exercise

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    This document contains 3 exercises involving calculating conditional probabilities: 1. The first exercise calculates the conditional frequency (CF) of intersections and unions of events. It provides 3 examples of CF calculations. 2. The second exercise calculates the probability of testing positive for HIV given a positive test result. 3. The third exercise calculates the probability that a dog inside went off, given an animal inside went off. It provides the probabilities of different events and uses them to calculate the desired probability.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    9 views2 pages

    Topic-4 Exercise

    Uploaded by

    Yati Htun
    This document contains 3 exercises involving calculating conditional probabilities: 1. The first exercise calculates the conditional frequency (CF) of intersections and unions of events. It provides 3 examples of CF calculations. 2. The second exercise calculates the probability of testing positive for HIV given a positive test result. 3. The third exercise calculates the probability that a dog inside went off, given an animal inside went off. It provides the probabilities of different events and uses them to calculate the desired probability.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 2

    Exercise-3

    Cf(H, E1  E2) = min[cf(E1), cf(E2)] x cf

    CF1(D\A n B n C) = min(0.85,-0.39,0.6)*0.75 = -0.39*0.75 = -0.2925


    CF2(D\E u C u G) = max(-0.3,0.6,0.45) * 0.95 = 06* 0.95 = 0.57
    CF3(D\(C n E) u (F n G) = max((min(0.6,-0.3), min(0.84, 0.45))*0.85 = max(-0.3,0.45)*0.85 =
    0.45*0.85 = 0.3825

    CF(CF1, CF2) = (-0.2925+ 0.57)/ (1-min(0.2925,0.57)) = 0.2775/0.7075 = 0.3922 (Maybe not)


    CF(CF1, CF3) = (-0.2925+ 0.3825)/(1-min(0.2925,0.3825)) = 0.09/0.7075 = 0.127 (Unknown)
    CF(CF2, CF3) = CF2+ CF3 x (1-CF2) = 0.57+0.3825x(1-0.57) = 0.57+ (0.3825x 0.43)
    = 0.57+0.164475 = 0.734475 (Probably)

    Exercise -2

    Probability of HIV

    HIV
    -

    +
    N-HIV

    P = p(+\Hiv) x p(Hiv)) / p(+)

    P(+) =( 0.01x0.9) + ( 0.99x0.2) = 0.009 + 0.198 = 0.207


    P(+\Hiv) = 0.9
    P(Hiv) = 0.01
    P = p(+\Hiv) x p(Hiv)) / p(+)
    = 0.9 x 0.01 / 0.207 = 0.0435

    Exercise -1

    Goes-off

    Dog|inside
    -

    Goes-off
    Cat|inside

    P(DC) = (0.3 x 0.9) + (0.7x 0.2) = 0.27 + 0.14 = 0.41


    Probability = P(D\Goes-off) x P(inside) / P(DC)
    = 0.9 x 0.3/ 0.41 = 0.6585

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