North Korean Nuclear Tests: Motivations and International Responses

● Since the start of 2016 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea {DPRK) has been working
towards further advancement of its nuclear and missile programs. There have been some significant
developments that include DPRK's claims to have successfully conducted a Hydrogen bomb test
(January 2016} and another nuclear test {September 2016}, a successful satellite launch, formation of a
new military unit KN-08 brigade to deploy ICMBs, testfiring of a new anti-tank guided weapon etc. The
international community has widely condemned all these developments by unanimously adopting the
toughest United Nations Security Council Resolutions {UNSCRs) against the DPRK. All these UNSCRs
focus on the economic and diplomatic isolation of DPRK through a series of sanctions, but DPRK still
seems determined to further advance its nuclear and missile program
● The international community has widely condemned all these developments by unanimously
adopting the toughest United Nations Security Council Resolutions (UNSCRs), under Chapter VII, Article
415 of the Charter
● economic and diplomatic isolation of DPRK through a series of sanctions,
● The DPRK, to date, has conducted five nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013 and two in 2016.6
DPRK acceded to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in December 1985 as a non- nuclear
weapon State
● 10 January 2003, DPRK announced its withdrawal from the NPT with effect from January 11,
2003.
● The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced on 6 January 2016 that, in the
pursuit of the strategic determination of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea (WPK), DPRK conducted its
first ever hydrogen bomb test at 1000 hours local time.
● "measure for self-defence which DPRK has taken to firmly protect its sovereignty and nation's
vital right from the ever-growing nuclear threat and blackmail by the US-led hostile forces and to reliably
safeguard the peace on Korean peninsula and regional security."
● measure for self-defence which DPRK has taken to firmly protect its sovereignty and nation's vital
right from the ever-growing nuclear threat and blackmail by the US-led hostile forces and to reliably
safeguard the peace on Korean peninsula and regional security." 12
● The statement also makes it clear that "Pyongyang will neither suspend its nuclear developments
nor undertake nuclear dismantlement unless the US rolls back its vicious hostile policy towards the former
...
● After North Korea tested its fourth and fifth nuclear devices on January 6, 2016 and September 9,
2016 respectively, as a response the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed the toughest
resolutions 2270 {2016) 14 and 2321 {2016) against the DPRK 15 to curb its advancement in the nuclear
and missile domain.
● Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test on October 9, 2006. The Comprehensive
Nuclear-Test- Ban Treaty Organization {CTBTO) seismic stations recorded a seismic activity of 4.1 17
and the estimated yield of this test has been recorded to be less than 1 kiloton. 1
● Despite the UNSC sanctions and international condemnation, DPRK conducted its second
nuclear test on May 25, 2009
● Generating a seismic activity of 5.023, the DPRK tested a third nuclear device on February 12,
2013
● In December 2015, the North Korea Leader Kim declared that North Korea was developing a
thermonuclear weapon, but the Western media and experts discredited any such developments. 25 North
Korea on 6 January 2016 has claimed26 to successfully test a smaller Hydrogen-bomb.
● On September 9, 2016, North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test.
● 9 September 1948 is marked as the Day of Foundation of the Republic of DPRK i.e. 68th
anniversary of the
● If we look at the timeline of nuclear testing, a set pattern could be observed. It seems that North
Korea tests a nuclear device every third year, with the exception of the 2013 test which was conducted
after three years.

Possible Motives
● Demonstration of a more credible nuclear deterrent: It could be part of the demonstration of a
more credible nuclear deterrent against US and its allies on the Korean Peninsula. This stems from deep
insecurity and fear of a possible US nuclear attack on North Korea. These tests could be seen in the light
of North Korea's efforts to develop a stronger nuclear deterrent to counterbalance US nuclear umbrella
provided to South Korea and Japan to maintain balance of power in the region.
● Technological advancement of nuclear capability: These tests have a clear motivation for
technological advancement and further development of North Korean's nuclear weapons, as these tests
are aimed at refining warhead design and reliability as well as increasing the yield of North Korea's
nuclear weapons.
● Political motivation: The test conducted in January 2016 was politically motivated as Kim Jong-Un
wanted to project himself as a strong leader before the Seventh Congress of the Worker's Party of Korea.
This rare and potentially significant political gathering of North Korea's communist parties was held in May
2016.41 The political motivations behind the September 2016 test, soon after the G20 summit and
US-ROK military drills in the region, could be to send a strong message to the international community
that North Korea remains fully determined to defend itself by continuously advancing its nuclear and
missile programs.
● Power projection: Two nuclear tests in the same year can also be seen as a power projection
tactic. North Korea is an isolated country, and the international community has very less diplomatic
leverage over it, except for maybe China
● Regime Preservation: Another motive could be to ensure regime preservation or legitimacy of
Kim Jong-Un's rule.
● Resumption of Six-Party Talks: North Korea has a history of exaggerating its capabilities to
achieve political ends. North Korea may use these claims to test H-bomb and then to test a still stronger
nuclear device to resume the Six-Party Talks; which include US China, Russia, South Korea, Japan and
North Korea.
● Bilateral talks with US: Another possible motive could be to engage the US at a bilateral level for
economic and diplomatic gains.
● All the above mentioned possible motivations behind North Korea's nuclear testing can be
explained via Deterrence Theory, i.e. North Korea's nuclear weapons are intended to deter US and its
allies from attacking
● North Korea with nuclear weapons or military force. In case there is use of force or nuclear
weapons against North Korea; Pyongyang can retaliate with its own nuclear weapons which will increase
the chances of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).
● Responses of the International Community international forums, such as the Conference on
Disarmament42 and the Nuclear Security Summit43 etc.
● South Korea: South Korea's Presidential office has strongly denounced the fourth nuclear test by
DPRK. According to President Park's statement in the National Security Council meeting "South Korea
will make sure that North Korea pays the corresponding price for the nuclear test".4
● Japan: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that the test is "totally unacceptable, and that
it constitutes a grave threat to Japan's security and violates U.N. Security Council resolutions"
● The Chinese statements after 2016 tests call for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, i.e.
removal of American nuclear umbrella; this is conditional as it implies that the American nuclear
commitment should be revoked
● United States: According to the US State Department spokesperson's statement, "the US has
consistently made clear that US will not accept DPRK as a nuclear State
● Russia: Russia's foreign ministry said that if the test is confirmed, then it would be a new step for
Pyongyang and a flagrant violation of international law that stands to aggravate tensions on the Korean
peninsula.5
● U.K.: The Foreign Minister Philip Hammond in his statement said that "It is a grave breach of UN
Security Council resolutions and a provocation which the U.K. condemns without reservation"
● French Foreign ministry said that "North Korea's continuous development of a nuclear and
ballistic arsenal is a gross violation of UN Security Council resolutions ... This escalation is unacceptable
..
● Pakistan: Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave subsequent statements that show Pakistan's
concerns about the DPRK's nuclear testing. These statements also say that Pakistan has been
supporting nuclear weapons free Korean Peninsula as agreed by all parties and that it strongly believes
all countries should comply with their respective international obligations."Pakistan opposes any action
which is detrimental to peace and stability in the region and militates against the prospects of reaching a
solution to the issue in the framework of the Six Party Talks". 6
●
● UNSC Resolutions 2270 and 2321 against DPRK: The U.N. Security Council has unanimously
adopted two new UN Security Council Resolutions, UNSCR 2270 on March 2, 2016 and UNSCR 2321 on
November 30, 2016. The draft of 2270 resolution was prepared after seven months of negotiations
between China and US With a focus on choking down the flow of hard currency to North Korea, the
recent resolution imposes the toughest sanctions so far on North Korea.
● US Sanctions Bill: On 18 February, US President Barack Obama signed the North Korea
Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act of 2016,
● Measures taken by South Korea: President Park Geun-hye ordered the shutting down of
Kaesong complex in retaliation for DPRK's nuclear test and satellite launch.79 This industrial complex
located at the common border has been a source for the flow of hard currency from South Korea to North
Korea.
● If an international diplomatic mission is not soon formulated that brings all the stakeholders to the
negotiation table, and tries to find a solution to the North Korean issue through dialogue, the peace and
stability in Korean Peninsula is at stake. Chances are fair that Pyongyang may soon test another nuclear
device (in 2017) aimed at further achieving technological advancement under Kim's leadership. North
Korea has clearly signalled that it is ready to negotiate for achieving economic stability of its nation. North
Korea might be using these recent nuclear tests as a bargaining chip for demanding an Iran like Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPO

NSG Norms: Critical Issues and Criteria

● Nuclear Suppliers Group {NSG), once created in response to the Indian nuclear weapons tests in
1974, emerged as one of the significant cartel particularly in the South Asian context
● it includes all recognized nuclear weapons states that matter much when it comes to the politics
of the NSG amongst its members.
● The NSG's emergence is significant because of its revised provisions urging both nuclear and
non-nuclear weapons states to be party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in order to prevent the
transfer of nuclear technology to states that are not party to the NPT
● The NSG urges states to abide by the provisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
● NSG is a cartel not legally binding upon the states,
● One may question why NSG hides the fact of its origin when it exempted the same nuclear
weapons state, India, which is neither a party to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) nor CTBT and
conducted more nuclear weapons tests in May 1998. Is not this the violation of the NSG's norms for
which this was first created?Should the future NSG's members need to become part of the NPT first?
This becomes the utmost critical issue when it comes to the growing normative posture of NSG.
● The NSG works on the principle of consensus by following the two prominent sets of its normative
posture. One, it is responsible to strictly follow the guidelines for nuclear exports. Two, it also has a role
related to the nuclear related exports
● It is imperative to note that the first set of NSG guidelines deals with elements such as a) nuclear
materials, b) nuclear reactors and equipments, c) non-nuclear materials for reactors, d) plants and
equipments for the reprocessing, enrichment and conversion of nuclear material
● The second set of NSG guidelines largely deals with nuclear export related materials such as fuel
cycle and nuclear explosives for industrial purposes only.
● Both of these two sets of NSG guidelines are consistent with the provisions of internationally
binding treaties in the field of nuclear nonproliferation such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT
● One of the major aims of making the NSG consistent with the international non-proliferation
treaties, including that of its consistence with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is to make
the NSG members binding to follow the peaceful uses of nuclear technology by prohibiting the transfer of
nuclear export and nuclear related exports technology that could be diverted from peaceful to military
purposes.
● One of the major challenges that may fall within the critical issues of the NSG as it confronts 21st
century nuclear politics is the induction of more members especially the states not Party to the NPT
● Since the revised NSG's provisions talk about criteria-based principles based on unanimous
consensus among the members, it would be challenging to see how the NSG could induct non-NPT
states particularly possessing nuclear weapons into the NSG.
● There are two options. One, the NSG could follow its principles, and allow only these non-NPT
states that become part of the NPT first before they join the NSG. However, this strict criteria may not be
acceptable to, say, India and Pakistan, who are de facto nuclear weapons states, but they have never
joined the NPT… THEY WILL WANT TO obtain a formal nuclear legitimacy like the P-5 major nuclear
weapons states before they could become part of the NPT
● Two, the NSG could relax the conditions through mutual consensus that are acceptable for both
India and Pakistan as non-NPT members and allowing both India and Pakistan simultaneously into the
NSG
● creating exceptions for one state against the interest of another could jeopardize the credibility of
the NSG in general and affect the strategic stability of South Asia in particular.
● The revised guidelines based on unanimous agreement make few important provisions binding
upon the NSG members.
● First, one of the important factors taken into account by the NSG for its membership is that a
participant or a member needs to adhere to one or more treaties such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT)
● Second, when it comes to the special controls on sensitive exports that largely include the
Enrichment and Reprocessing Nuclear Technology (ENR), the NSG's revised guidelines clearly depicts
that the Suppliers should not authorize the transfer of these sensitive materials if the recipient does not
meet at least all of the following criteria: The recipient is a Party to the NPT and is in full compliance with
the NPT provisions; 2. The recipient is not identified as breaching the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA)'s safeguard agreement; 3. The recipient follows the NSG's guidelines and implements effective
export controls as identified by Security Council Resolution 1540
● Third, in addition to these criteria based provisions, the NSG's guidelines also mention that the
Suppliers should not transfer the enrichment and reprocessing nuclear materials that enable the recipient
to produce greater than 20% of enriched uranium.
● As part of the NSG's guidelines, it claims to increase its membership on the basis of mutual
consensus. However, the NSG is not substantially clear whether the factors for future membership be
based on criteria or country-specific exceptions, with special exceptions granted. ---if India goes into the
NSG, it will be a nuclear weapons state, not Party to the NPT. This will go against the NSG's revised
guidelines
● This raises more questions than answers:Will this be good enough for NSG or a failure for
international community which would in turn undermine the strategic stability of South Asia in general and
international security in particular? What options the NSG will then have in order to restore the balance
making sure that India's inclusion into the NSG alone could not trigger new arms race? Can Pakistan be
accepted as a member of the NSG after it grants India a membership?
● Currently, NSG seems to have increased its credibility much more making sure that its members
would follow the strict guidelines by not exporting the nuclear related technology to both nuclear and
non-nuclear

NSG and the Critical Issues

● The NSG currently confronts critical issues as majority of its members have already provided
certain exemptions in terms of providing nuclear technology to India.
● Most of the NSG major powers possessing nuclear weapons have shown commendable amount
of leniency to India including the recent Grossi Formula paving the ways for India to secure a smooth
entry into the NSG.
● US-India nuclear deal and the NSG's nuclear exemptions to India has become a critical issue for
the NSG in terms of sustaining its credibility.
● Although India theoretically claims to follow the IAEA's additional protocol by accepting its
safeguards, it is not clear whether or not India is following the comprehensive safeguards.
● The phased-manner implementation of IAEA's safeguards in terms of bringing its nuclear reactors
under the IAEA's safeguards could provide India opportunity to exploit the IAEA's additional protocol,
thereby, undermining the credibility of the NSG and the IAEA's safeguard agreement when India would
have already acquired much fissile materials for making nuclear warheads out of its currently 8 nuclear
reactors not under the IAEA's safeguards.
● If India goes for more nuclear weapon tests, as it desires to, it would undermine the credibility of
the NSG where India is trying hard to become part of it and NSG may not have any provisions to act
against India then
● The NSG is not clear on the implications for India if it conducts more nuclear tests after becoming
part of the NSG and how this could affect the credibility of the international non-proliferation regime
● India has already aspired for a grand nuclear strategy and such a grandiose journey would
require India to build more nuclear reactors and produce more fissile materials that could suffice its
aspiration to be the regional rising power
● This development would have implications on the strategic stability of South Asia where there
could be a new arms race between India and Pakistan. Also, this could create a security dilemma in the
South Asian region.
● ​Second, NSG is not clear about how and when it would need to increase its membership.
Whether or not, it would include India as a nuclear weapon state, not party to the NPT, Also, it is not clear
if it intends to bring both India and Pakistan into the NSG simultaneously by widening its scope of nuclear
politics, as not Party to the NPT.
● cartel needs to bring Pakistan when and if India becomes part of it.
● ​Once the NSG accepts India's membership for whatever reasons leaving Pakistan behind, it
could make Pakistan's membership into the NSG more complex and hard because then India will have
veto power to block Pakistan's chances for membership,
● If the NSG needs to sustain and strengthen its norms and non-proliferation values, it should not
allow India in the first place to become part of the NSG as a nuclear weapon state not party to the NPT. If
it does show flexibility in terms of allowing a member in possession of nuclear weapon and not Party to
the NPT, then the NSG will need to allow Pakistan too to help prevent the adverse strategic
consequences for South Asia.
● ​The recent two-page Grossi formula prepared by the former Chair of the NSG, Ambassador
Rafael Mariano Grossi, has been rejected by Pakistan14, because the so-called Grossi formula remains
discriminatory by lowering the restriction bar and paving ways for India that can then theoretically claim to
have a smooth entry into the NSG without actually fulfilling the existing provisions of the NSG. 15 The
Grossi formula forms the basis for exceptionalism.
● This scenario brings the NSG into a complex decision making dilemma. Because, once India and
Pakistan go into the NSG, then Israel, who has not yet tested its nuclear capability nor announced its
nuclear policy, could also become a claimant for membership of the NSG and so would North Korea as a
non-NPT member

Options for NSG: Sustaining its Credibility

● The NSG can strengthen its prospects as one of the major and influential cartels leading towards a
formal and serious treaty formation by accommodating more states Party to the NPT. The NSG could also
pave the ways by devising acceptable formula for nuclear weapons states not Party to the NPT that would
both allow these states to become ultimately part of the NSG and commit themselves that they would use
nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and would not undermine the principles of the NSG.
● the NPT would recognize both India and Pakistan as nuclear weapons states before they think of
joining the NPT. Presumably, as India and Pakistan get more maturity in their nuclear weapons program,
the NPT and NSG could eventually recognize these nuclear weapons states with the ultimate motive to
strengthen the non-proliferation regime.
● here are still those who could argue that the induction of both India and Pakistan as nuclear
weapons states party to the NPT could encourage other nuclear weapons states, say, North Korea and
Israel, to get recognized by achieving the nuclear weapons status by the NPT.
● Also, it could open the Pandora Box for nonnuclear weapons states to quit the NPT, declare
themselves to be the next nuclear weapons states paving the ways for a third atomic age and demand for
nuclear legitimacy before the international non-proliferation regime.

● Two, currently, it may not be acceptable for both India and Pakistan to join the NSG as
non-nuclear weapons states, party to the NPT. In international politics in general and nuclear politics in
particular, states would always go for effective cost and benefit analysis as to how much they are winning
and losing before becoming part of a treaty
● Three, one of the fundamental critical issues for the NSG in general and the non-proliferation
regime in particular, is the NSG's principle of nonproliferation and the use of peaceful nuclear technology.
The issue of disarmament still remains at large, however.
● Last but not least, despite the gradual increase in membership, the non-proliferation regime
particularly the NPT and the NSG have got loopholes. Despite the big membership, they failed to
convince both China and France to ratify the NPT in the early years of its creation with the given nuclear
weapons status. Both France and China joined the NPT in 1992. They failed to stop France from carrying
out more nuclear weapons tests in 2005 when France broke its nuclear moratorium on modernizing its
deterrent forces. This could happen to the NSG as well when India would carry out more nuclear
weapons tests thus undermining the credibility of the NSG and other non-proliferation regimes India
would become part of. They failed to stop India from carrying out nuclear tests first in 1974 and later in
1998.

The Indian Ocean Security: Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan The Indian Ocean Security:
Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan

● ​ The Indian Ocean is the ancient human passage through waters and contains immense
security and economic values not only for the littoral States of the Indian Ocean but also for the
extra-territorial powers. The Indian Ocean had for Jong remained extremely vital in modern
history, and global powers occupied significant positions here to influence their policies.
● As a new entrant, China wants to further integrate the Indian Ocean for regional trade and
socio-cultural connectivity under its Maritime Silk Road Corridor. Pakistan is an integral part of the
Maritime Silk Road by providing a geographical access to the landlocked western autonomous region of
Xinjiang and Central Asia and even beyond at Pakistan's southern Gwadar Port via road, railway, and
telecommunication linkages. This is a great step in the economic integration of the Indian Ocean in the
21st century.
● cooperation to enhance its role in regional security of the Indian Ocean as well as expanding its
merchandise trade.
● Four critically important access waterways namely: Suez Canal (Egypt), Bab-el-Mandeb
(Djibouti-Yemen), Strait of Hormuz (IranOman), and Straits of Malacca (Indonesia-Malaysia), are located
in the Indian Ocean.
● Four critically important access waterways namely: Suez Canal (Egypt), Bab-el-Mandeb
(Djibouti-Yemen), Strait of Hormuz (IranOman), and Straits of Malacca (Indonesia-Malaysia), are located
in the Indian Ocean.
● The Arabs remained the most motivating factor in opening up many routes of the Indian Ocean.
The Arabian mercantile trading activities in goods, spices, and transportation started long before the
Europeans.
● Long after the Arabs invaded India through sea route, the Europeans took at least eight centuries
to "re-discover" according to their perceptions of sea routes to India via the Indian Ocean
● The region contains onethird of the world's population. An estimated 40 per cent of the world's
offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean alone.
● . The combined reserves of the Gulf and Central Asia account for 72.5 per cent of the world's total
oil and 45 per cent of gas.
● United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Europe India, and Pakistan, and many other nations
import a substantial amount of their requirements of energy and merchandise imports and exports
through the Indian Ocean.
● Around 70 percent of global petrol export passes through the Indian Ocean. 5 Ports play an
important role in the Indian Ocean. There are around 157 ports and harbours in the Indian Oceans with
India having 40 ports, Australia 20 ports, and Saudi Arabia 11 ports.
● There are 36 littoral States of the Indian Ocean, comprising three Continents namely; Asia, Africa,
and Australia. The mother region of South Asia comprise of 5 States, South East Asia 6 States, the
Middle East and Africa (12 States each region), Australia and a few Islands under foreign control.
● As for power play within the Indian littoral States is concerned, India naturally emerges as the
most powerful country among 36 littoral States, cooperated by Australia and some South East Asian
littoral States besides the United States and Japan. The lndo-US collusion has made China wary about
the strategic balance in the Indian Ocean.7 This gives natural hegemony to India in sharing regional
security in the Indian Ocean.
● ​Maritime Security
● The term "maritime security" is bound to various explanations depending on who is using it and
for what purpose, whether it is used for military purpose or commercial purpose.8 For one nation, it could
be a 'maritime security', for another, it could be a 'maritime insecurity' both at, at the same time.
● "maritime safety" refers to preventing or minimising of occurrence of incidents at seas as
stipulated under the International Maritime Organization (IMO) while "maritime security" refers to th
● e UNCLOS of 1982 for settlements of disputes and issues related to the maritime security.9
● New threats to States are not just military-oriented that convert security as more complex and
cumbersome. Today, these threats or threat-perceptions might stem from within States such as the
internal political disorders, economic crunch or sharpening of differences,
● Plagues, vulnerabilities, drugs, smugglings, piracy, and terrorism also pose a threat to maritime
security from an operational point of view of vessels.
● One can safely assume that maritime security means military, political, and economic capabilities
of States to use seas and oceans for certain common objectives of many nations involved in a given
period of time.
● ​The Power Play
● The United States, Great Britain, Russia and Japan used to be the extraterritorial powers in the
Indian Ocean up to the end of World War II
● Japan defeated british and european powers here
● There had been a long confrontation in the Indian Ocean after World War II until the demise of
the Cold War and the former Soviet Union by 1989.
● With this end, a new dimension occurred in the Indian Ocean as to who would dominate this
Ocean.
● With the rise of China, a new factor has been emerging to share power hegemony and to provide
a safe water passage for merchandise trade equally shared by all stakeholders in the Indian Ocean. many
traditional powers do not intend to accept the entry of another extra-territorial power - China.
● Most of the adversaries also opposed the presence of China in the South China Sea in the Pacific
and the Indian Ocean, which makes it a "Two Oceans Power" - in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean
simultaneousl
● being contested in the Indian Ocean most strongly by giving a pivotal role to India by the United
States, Australia, Japan
● ​India's Growing Naval Expansion
● intense naval rivalry taking place between China and India in the Indian Ocean nowadays
● India developing its conventional naval capabilities and ballistic missiles submarines, air craft
carriers, and state-of-the art anti-submarines warfare capabilities.
● The purpose of the LEMOA Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) on 29
August 2016 (was to enhance their naval capabilities in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific theatre
(especially in the South China Sea) under the US "pivot to Asia" strategy. The United States would deploy
around 60 percent of its ships in the lndo-Pacific region
● China has also been expanding its maritime capabilities to respond to any eventuality that might
take place in Taiwan and disturb its maritime interests in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.
China has been building airfields and artificial islands to beef up its defence in the South China Sea
● China has been developing its military logistics to an unprecedented level of over 400 percent to
protect its maritime lifelines and its growing interests. 16 Presently, there are around 20,000 Chinese
naval personnel that would increase to 100,000 to protect Chinese maritime interests from Gwadar to
Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, where China has been contracting its naval base
● The Gwadar, CPEC, OBOR could act as agents of regional connectivity between China, the
Middle East, and Africa that is also highly beneficial for promoting the Pakistani naval interests in the
Indian Ocean. Pakistan and China, however, are likely to face opposing positions to be taken by India and
the United States.
● ​Pakistan's Perspective -----------A. Strategic Significance
● Pakistan is one of the littoral States of the Indian Ocean having a costal line of 900 km of which
700 km or 75 per cent in length lies in the Makran coastal line in Balochistan. The rest of 25 per cent of
Pakistan's coastal line rests in Sindh - Karachi, Thatta, and Bidin Indus Delta.
● Pakistan has two most operational ports, Port of Karachi, and Bin Qasim Port.
● The state-of-the art Gwadar Port is now under a limited operation since November 2016 after its
inauguration.19 Other small ports and harbours are: Keti Bandar, Jiwani, Gadani, Ormara, and Pasni that
could be developed into future big ports
● Importantly, being an Indian Ocean littoral State, with the third largest population asset of 180
million people in the region, and the nuclear State of region, maritime security is a vital element of
Pakistan policy
● The importance of the Indian Ocean is further vital for Pakistan because it is the fourth largest
State in terms of having ports and harbours in the Indian Ocean after Saudi Arabia, Australia, and India
respectively. Another significant aspect is that the largest river flowing into the Arabian Sea in the Indian
Ocean is the mighty Indus River
● Pakistan is deeply concerned with the emerging security situation in the Indian Ocean as a littoral
State. Maritime security is the prime concern of Pakistan to tackle the issue of counter-terrorism, piracies,
armed robberies, drug trafficking, and crimes
● ​B. Multilateral Security Measures
● Strategically speaking, Pakistan focuses on its maritime policy through a number of multilateral
ventures with a number of countries
● Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO)21, signed on 8 September 1954 at Manila and
formally launched at Bangkok in February 1955, was aimed to strengthen Pakistan's land, air, and naval
defence
● After the separation of East Pakistan, the significance of SEATO largely disappeared for
Pakistan, and the country got disinterested in the activities of the SEATO as it could not save the country
from the Indian naked aggression in collaboration with the Soviet Union, the leader of Communism,
against Pakistan in its eastern wing. The Soviet bloc saw ​SEATO​​ as a curse erected against it and its
allies. 22 Pakistan withdrew from the SEATO on 7 November 1973 and France on 30 June 1974.
Resultantly, the treaty was eventually dissolved on 30 June 1977
● the post 9/11 era, Pakistan joined the Japan-led​ Operation Enduring Freedom-Maritime
Interdiction Operation (OEF-MIO) during 2001-2010​​ to counter terrorism in the Indian Ocean along with
other 36 countries. The operation ran successfully but, because of domestic issues in Japan, it was
discontinued in January 2010. Pakistan remained an active participant of the OEF-MIO
● ​C. The Warm-Water Theory
● In connection with Pakistan's maritime policy, there is a need to explain the "warm-water" theory
● he warm-water theory stemmed from the desire of the old time Czars in Russia to occupy ports
facility in the Indian Ocean via today's Pakistan….. entire course of later Russian military advances in
Asia was motivated by its long-standing desire to gain warm-water ports.2
● Russian Asian territories in Central Asia also did not reach the Indian Ocean waters at any point
at any time in its long history
● Russian penetration into Central Asia started with this theory of southward reach to the
warm-waters. Had the Revolution in 1917 not intervened, their southward push might have reached the
Persian Gulf.27
● The Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979 was also marked by a tragedy of the un-fulfillment
of its warm-water dream
● After long history and rivalry, now Gwadar Port is ready to cater to the needs of Central Asia,
Russia, China, and Mongolia but the situation in Afghanistan is still not ripe to undertake such facility.
Pakistan has invited Russia to use the Gwadar Port for commercial purposes, 28 complicating Indian
efforts for seeking hegemony in the Indian Ocean.
● ​D. Gwadar Port and the CPEC
● The development of the Gwadar Port should not be taken as a kind of strategic collaboration
between Pakistan and China against other nations but needs to be seen as a development process of the
sea resources of the Indian Ocean and a natural access for China and the landlocked Central Asian
States to get sea access to the Arabian Sea for energy and merchandise trade
● In the early 1970s, Pakistan first offered this facility to the United States to help develop the port
for naval purposes but because of some reasons the United States did not grab this opportunity and
refused. It was China that much later had shown interest in Gwadar offered a loan of US$ 245 million in
2001 to construct the Gwadar Port for commercial purposes
● Moreover, the emergance of the landlocked Central Asian Republics in the early 1990s further
pushed the significance of the Indian Ocean manifold, because the shortest and cheapest outlet to global
markets available to the Central Asian Republics was through the Gwadar Port as a gateway to Central
Asia to increase their merchandise trade.
● The global power politics in the Indian Ocean by India, United States, Japan, and their
collaborators could only estrange the development strategies of Pakistan and China, which is trying to
find out alternative ways of developing their economies.
● The United States' military presence in Diego Garcia30 and its collaboration with India and Japan
made China and Pakistan wary about the strategic imbalance in the India Ocean.
● Gwadar Port is not going to become another Diego Garcia or Malta that might be controlled by
China. Undeniably, Gwadar Port is not a military base.
● Gwadar would develop on the pattern of the ports of Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai. Nor has
China ever made such a plea to Pakistan to use Gwadar for the PLA's naval, air, or land forces
● Against the largely propagated misperception of the "String of Pearls" theory that intends to
describe the growing maritime power of China in the Indian Ocean, Gwadar Port would only serve the
commercial needs of Pakistan, China, and Central Asian states and countries beyond. No parallel could
be drawn between the US pivot to Asia and the "String of Pearls" as Pakistan is not a part of any such
policies to oppose or support.
● Pakistan also needs to effectively devise its "Vision East Asia" to respond to India's "Act East"
policy
● Pakistan is one of the conflictridden countries and badly at the crossroads of terrorism in the
region. It would not like to become once again a "frontline State" in the Indian, Ocean promoting the
interest of any power including China.
● Under the growing competitions and rivalries, it is natural for Pakistan to enhance its maritime
security through multilateral maritime security activities that included the SEATO in the 1950s,
ASEAN-Regional Forum {ARF), and the OEF-MIO. As the OEF-MIO was discontinued in 2011 and Japan
has developed much stronger maritime links with India, this compelled Pakistan to seek more naval
collaboration with China.
● It should be pointed out that there is no "String of Pearls" policy as such. Rather, Pakistan's
strong military ties with a number of Persian Gulf states also enhance its maritime security and
commercial activities.
● ​The lndo-Pakistan Rivalry at Sea
● The "Indian Ocean" is not "India's Ocean", but India anticipates to dominate the Ocean for
"natural" reasons as a big, populated, and nuclear country
● Both Pakistan and China are hindrances to India's hegemony in the region
● The main distinction between the Pakistan-India rivalry in the Indian Ocean is that Pakistan does
not intend to seek hegemony and domination in its maritime policy or even militarization, whereas India
wants to dominate the region by seeking American, Japanese, Australian support to counter Chinese rise
in the region
● India also flexes its muscles in the Indian Ocean through its vibrant "Act East" policy
● On the contrary, Pakistan wants to maintain a balance in the Indian Ocean and, for achieving that
end, it is continuously struggling on balancing act
● Pakistan's policy of creating a balance and conditions for peace in the Indian Ocean has been
quite successful and well responded to by a number of countries. The bright example is the 5th AMAN
(Peace) 2017 naval exercises "Together for Peace" hosted by Pakistan Navy in February 2017, and
responded to by as many as 35 countries--carried out after every 2 years to promote peace
● In the foreseeable future, both China and Russia are likely to increase their political footprints in
the western Indian Ocean33, while China and Pakistan will enhance their merchandise interests in the
sea. These are the basic reasons for India's growing anxieties about Pakistan and China in the Indian
Ocean
● For India, Gwadar Port would be used for maritime purposes by China34 and it will help
strengthen Pakistan's maritime position through what they call "String of Pearls", policy, which China and
Pakistan categorically refused.35
● Gwadar Port will be used for mercantile trade and connectivity under the OBOR.
● Indian apprehensions, however, continue, and it is trying to build influence in the region through a
number of ways including an increase in naval presence to counter perceived Chinese and Pakistani
threats.
● The intrusion by an Indian nuclear submarine in Pakistan's waters on 4 November 2016, just
ahead of the Gwadar inauguration, was a clear illustration of Indian fears of Pakistan-China maritime
collaboration at Gwadar.
● ​Recommendations
● The Indian Ocean Integration The Indian Ocean littoral States are not well integrated. Regional
organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Association of the
South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Gulf Cooperation (GC) and other Middle Eastern littoral States, and
East African States of the Indian Ocean should form a wider regional association to integrate the entire
region. II. The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) The Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA),
launched in 1997, is a good initiative but it is limited to just ten Indian Ocean countries. The IORA should
be expanded to all 36 countries to achieve better outcomes for regional integration and connectivity. Ill.
The Indian Ocean Security Cooperation Association (IOSCA) A comprehensive multilateral security forum
is required to handle the security and defence issues of the Indian Ocean littoral States. Earlier, security
fora were time-barred and directed against particular forces to seek hegemony. The ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) is a good example but it does not cover all the littoral States of indian ocean. IV. The Indian
Ocean Free Trade Partnership (IOFTP) Similarly, an economic forum should be created amongst all the
littoral States of the Indian Oceans to expand trade and economic cooperation among member States. A
regional Free Trade Agreement i.e., the Indian Ocean Free Trade Partnership, (IOFTP) should be
initiated to form an economic union for trade integration among the Indian Ocean littoral States. V. The
Maritime Silk Road The Chinese initiative of the 21st century Maritime Silk Road is a novel idea and it
offers immense opportunities to a number of the Indian Ocean littoral States to integrate and promote
trade, commerce, connectivity, and social-cultural cohesion. This initiative should be comprehensively
promoted. Under this plan, marine life and biodiversity protection should also be initiated to address
environmental issues. VI. The Indian Ocean Cultural Association (IOCA) A cultural forum should also be
formed to promote diverse cultures namely; Indian, Islamic, Arab, South East Asia, African, and
Australian cultures and languages. A Cultural Research Centre of the Indian Ocean littoral States should
be formed to promote cultures and education. The Perth-based Indian Ocean Centre should be revitalized
for conducting diverse research on the Indian Ocean by enhancing scholarship and fellowship programs.
The Indian Ocean Nuclear Free Zone (IONFZ) The massive military, nuclear, missiles, and conventional
build up in the Indian Ocean severely dims the prospects for peace. India and Pakistan are the only
nuclear powers in the Indian Ocean, along with Israel having its undeclared nuclear capabilities and after
the resolution of Iran's nuclear program. Since the early 1970s, there had been a proposal lying on the
table that the Indian Ocean should be de-nuclearized to promote a defence and security atmosphere,

North Korea's Nuclear Behavior: Future of Global Non-Proliferation Regime

● The Relationship between the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the
international non-proliferation regimes presents an interesting case study.
● it began to perceive that the framework was incompatible with its national security concerns
● Walking away from the NPT was aimed at getting rid of perpetual pangs of political baggage
which it would have had to endure had it chosen to continue playing hide and seek with the international
non-proliferation regime while developing its nuclear weapons.
● On its part, DPRK maintains that it lawfully exited the NPT and is not in violation of any of its
international obligations
● Never ending battle of wits is in between the international non-proliferation regime and North
Korea in the form of a vicious cycle of sanctions and nuclear and missile tests.
● There is no ongoing diplomatic engagement as the "Six-Party Talks" stand suspended since April
2009.
● the solution lies in engaging DPRK in meaningful talks aimed at addressing its security concerns.
● ​Introduction
● The Six-Party Talks (amongst the two Koreas, the US, Japan, Russia, and China) started in 2003
with a focus on making the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons, but these talks stand stalled since
April 2009.
● North Korea is in the process of perfecting the capability of launching a missile from a submarine
● Once done, this would complete its nuclear triad and make it immune to first strike-at least
theoretically. However, despite five nuclear and numerous missile tests, its overall nuclear weapon
capability is, by any standards, modest.
● Though America-led demonization campaign through diplomacy and sanctions has resulted in
DPRK's isolation and economic weakening
● extremely repressive, any attempt at regime change is not likely to succeed
● Ironically, when on March 27, 2017, over 100 countries initiated the first-ever UN talks to legally
ban the nukes, America spearheaded a boycott of the process terming it "unrealistic
● America spearheaded a boycott of the process terming it "unrealistic". American ambassador to
the UN, Nikki Haley, rejected the process in the context of "current global security threats"
● Around 40 countries, including all nine nuclear weapon states, were not participating. This
initiative was announced in October, 2016 by 123 UN members; those at the forefront included Austria,
Ireland, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and Sweden, supported by hundreds of non-profit organizations.
● The UK, Israel, France, USA and Russia had voted no, while China, India and Pakistan
abstained. Even Japan voted negatively saying: "Efforts to make such a treaty without the involvement of
nuclear weapon states will only deepen the schism and division" 7 within the international system.
● ​Fast Forward: Donald Trump Administration
● During his maiden visit to East Asia, commencing from Japan, on March 06, 2017, the US
Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson restated all ingredients of Obama administration's policy and projected it
as new policy by Trump administration.
● He dubbed the DPRK "an imminent threat" that needed "immediate attention.
● On the same day North Korea conducted another test of its ballistic missile. Tillerson's trip put
forth the message that urgency of the issue was well home to the US
● he neither elaborated the strategy of dealing with the threat nor gave a fair idea how differently
President Trump would handle the matter from his predecessor
● There is a need to re-examine the challenge that North Korea could pose in view of its recent
nuclear and missile pursuits and put forward policy choices out of which China, USA, Japan and RoK
could choose. 1
● it is essential to ascertain whether the US really wants to put a stop to DPRK's nuclear advances
or it wants to go easy, and step by step, keep using DPRK's nuclear actions to justify its own horizontal
nuclear proliferation into Korean peninsula.
● It is also essential to assess whether DPRK would continue falling into such American trap or
take some actions-may be only symbolic- to checkmate current double edged American strategy.
● The Policy of the Obama administration is generally presumed to have, by and large, failed to
coerce North Korea
● China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, has even predicted a DPRK-US "head-on collision
● During his visit, the US Secretary of State gave an impression that the US was not inclined to
talks with DPRK, and talked about pre-emptive military action if the threat level elevated beyond an
unacceptable level.
● He indicated his intention to engage other countries, especially China, to help enforce UNSC
sanctions to add pressure on the DPRK.
● Tillerson hinted at considering tougher sanctions like barring DPRK from the global financial
institutions and even sanctioning Chinese banks which carry out business interactions with North Korea1
● In a reaction to Tillerson's hard-line comments, DPRK brushed aside possibility of pre-emptive
usage of military might and played down the impact of tougher sanctions
● Though Trump's approach may appear harder, he did not undo the previous administration's
humanitarian donation to UNICEF intended for DPRK.
● ​An Overview of International Non-Proliferation Regime: Myth and Reality
● Contemporary international non-proliferation regime is in disorder, not due to North Korea's
modest nuclear program, and also not because of Iran's nuclear pursuits prior to Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA)-also known as lran-P 5+1 deal- but mainly due to the regime's own intrinsic
fragility emanating out of its own innate structural contradictions, operational flaws and politically
motivated interpretations of non-proliferation related statutes by the five NPT recognized Nuclear Weapon
States (NWS)
● AEA had certified, on January 16, 2016 that "Iran has completed the necessary steps under the
Iran deal that will ensure Iran's nuclear program is and remains exclusively peaceful" 1
● President Donald J Trump's abhorrence for JCPOA
● Such moves have reduced US credibility as an honest broker in nuclear deal making-especially in
the context of honoring such deals, in letter and spirit once these are in place
● This development has diminished chances of North Korea's inclination towards reversion back to
six parties' talks or any other similar arrangement out of the fear that it will continue to face sanctions
● Since coming into effect of NPT, four non-member counties, while remaining outside NPT have
acquired the nuclear weapon capability. Following an ostrich like approach, NPT does not want to
acknowledge this reality and insists that these countries join the treaty as NNWS. Five NWS think that
nuclear weapons are only safe if held by them, and are dangerous if held by anyone else. ---an approach
of "nuclear apartheid"
● Some of the cardinal provisions of the global non-proliferation regime are out rightly
discriminatory in nature, selective in operational context and political in application
● The IAEA held an "International Conference on Nuclear Security" in July 2013; 125 states
alongside 21 organizations participated. By comparison, outreach of the NSS process was only about 50
countries and 4 organizations29
● Among the NSS summits' chief accomplishments are the recovery or elimination of more than
1,500 kilograms of HEU
● Despite decades' long uproar about the nuclear activities of North Korea and Iran, both were kept
outside the NSS process. DPRK is a nuclear weapon country; it also has viable delivery systems in place.
Both countries manage a number of nuclear facilities. By their non-invitation to any of these four summits,
the NSS had put a serious question on its intent and purpose.
● Without Russia, a major power with largest number of nuclear warheads and fissile material
stockpiles, the final communique of NSS 2016 indeed lost much of its steam.
● Obama's non-proliferation credentials have also been questioned on numerous counts. For
example, initially he showed willingness to ratify CTBT, and settle the matter of Fissile Material Treaty at
the Conference of Disarmament (CD), but nothing worthwhile was accomplished on either issue during
his presidency. Obama's concept of "Global Zero" also did not move beyond political point scoring
● Despite being a non NPT member, India has been allowed to keep eight of its nuclear power
plants out of IAEA safeguards. America went overboard to lobby for NSG waiver for India, now it is trying
to convert the waiver to permanent membership
● ​North Korea's Military Capabilities
● Numerically, DPRK's armed forces are superior to South Korea by a wide margin.36 As regards
number of soldiers and weapons, North Korea enjoys almost a 2:1 advantage. But this abundance of men
and material does not mean that its military capability is superior. "North Korea remains reliant on a
predominantly obsolescent equipment inventory across all three services," is the finding of the
"International Institute for Strategic Studies" {IISS) 37• While, on paper, DPRK air force possesses 563
combat-capable aircrafts, in reality, "every one of these planes was grounded for a short period in 2014"
because of problems with maintenance and serviceability
● South Korea has 'lean and mean' military, benefiting from state of the art America supplied arms,
munitions and weapon systems
● North Korea finds itself pitched against combined military might of South Korea and the US. This
imbalance is the underlying cause for North Korean regime's anxiety to build a nuclear armory.
● Most analysts estimate that North Korea has 10-20 crude atom bombs43
● North Korea is also perceived to have a clandestine nuclear weapons program, probably mostly
underground, using uranium centrifuges and perhaps other technologies
● North Korea's long-range missile capabilities remain uncertain. For example, roughly within a
month of testing its hydrogen bomb for the first time in 2016, DPRK claimed to have placed a satellite in
gee-centric orbit for "peaceful purposes".
● Each spring, massive joint US-South Korea military exercises are conducted.
● DPRK also posted a YouTube video on March 25, 2016, entitled "Last Chance", animated a
nuclear projectile hitting the American capital. Video closed with a rhetoric depicting "unhesitatingly strike
... with nuclear [weapons] ... US imperialists ... if they move even a little bit."
● ​DPRK's case for Nuclearization
● Presumably North Korea had joined the (NPT) on some assumption. The treaty commits treaty
members "to pursue negotiations in good faith on measures relating to ... nuclear disarmament
● North Korea presumes that it is not under any international compulsion for not using nuclear
know-how for weapon making purposes. It is also of the view that the country is not in violation of any law
barring the usage of rockets to place satellites into orbit. In its assessment, "no such law exists".
● Moreover, DPRK maintains the type of rocket it employed for satellite launching in March 2016
"was not a ballistic missile, (and) there are no laws which prohibit ballistic missile development,
possession, or testing"
● According to North Korea, "its nuclear weapons are purely defensive". This may be a sound
assessment.
● "the United States threatened North Korea with nuclear destruction on six separate occasions. On
one occasion the United States' top soldier, Colin Powell, warned North Korea that the United States
could turn it into a 'charcoal briquette' .
● NPT enshrines the principle that NWS won't use nukes for threatening or endangering NNWS.
● three signal events in the last two decades had underscored for Pyongyang that the decision it
took to develop nuclear weapons was the right one"
● Firstly "Gorbachev's foolish belief that his policies to end the arms race and confrontation with the
West would be rewarded by respect for the Soviet Union"60; instead, his empire was destroyed piece by
piece. The second instance was Iraq's Saddam Hussein61• Third was Libya's Qaddafi6
● DPRK also argues that "More than 100 space vehicles are put into the orbit around the earth by
carrier rockets in a year on an average worldwide, but only North Korea's satellite launch has been
singled out for condemnation by the Security Council.
● On the contrary, "Washington praised India's so-called solid' non-proliferation record", an
altogether "incomprehensible tribute to a country that has never been party to the NPT". India is
"estimated to have 90-110 warheads, and now has the ability to deliver them over long ranges"6
● ​DPRK's Defiance
● DPRK has a track record of side stepping UN admonitions. Over half a dozen UNSC resolutions
have been adopted since 2006, focused on sanctioning it over nuclear weapons program." DPRK,
however, has since been continuously circumventing these
● Resolution 1718(2006)71, called upon DPRK to give up its future nuclear tests or launches and to
re-join the talks on the subject72• For three subsequent years, DPRK ignored this resolution, thus
prompting adoption of Resolution 1874, in 20097~ that enhanced the scope of the ban on arms transfers
to North Korea
● On January 06 2016, DPRK launched its second satellite alongside fourth nuclear explosion,
using a "hydrogen bomb"
● This triggered UNSC Resolution 227077, enforcing compulsory inspections of cargo emanating
from or destined to DPRK.7
● ​Options for Regional Rivals: Restraint or Proliferation?
● While South Korea and Japan would be more than happy to let the process of positive
assurances by the US complete, Russia and China could come with some innovations to ward off
American nuclear presence in their neighborhood.

Prospects of Indo-Pak Relations: Transcending Parochial Politics

● The world is moving towards a complex phenomenon of regional connecvity with a revoluonary
content in it. The security challenges, collecve economic prosperity and stability are all contaminated by
the vague strategic calculaons with 'equi-probables
● The phenomenon anchors on regional peace, polical will mutual trust and economic stability.
● The assent of India and Pakistan together for the first me, in a China and Russia backed security
and economic organizaon of Shanghai Cooperaon Organizaon (SCO) as co-members, may help to
evade the hard feelings
● The incompability is nevertheless detrimental to their threat perceptions and objectives. Both
India and Pakistan have nursed serious reservaons about each other since paron in 1947.
● ​Introduction
● As a recent development, there has been heightened concern shown by both the US and the UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon about the connuing sullenness in the relaonship of the two nuclear
power
● India-Pakistan relaons have been punctuated by the deeply bruised polarizing controversies
since the paron of the Sub-connent in 1947.
● The flashpoint remains the disputed region of Kashmir, the cross border violent exchanges and
the legacy of mistrust ever since. Heavy gun fire is traded almost daily at the Line of Control (LoC) even
aer sixty eight years of paron.
● Could these provocave aacks spiral out of control is a queson threatening the polics of economic
regionalism and counter terrorism, to which Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan, willfully agreed upon, in the sideline meeng of Shanghai Cooperaon
Organizaon (SCO) in the Russian city of Ufa on July 10, 2015.
● The two had met even in Kathmandu in November 2014 and bilateral talks were held
● Earlier, in May 2014, Nawaz Sharif had aended the swearing-in ceremony of Modi on his invitaon
to all the states of South Asian Associaon for Regional Cooperaon (SAARC)
● ). The bilateral meeng was followed by the exchange of gis, the sari-shawl diplomacy and the
tweets.
● downward swing in the relaons with the connuing firing on the border, claiming more than two
hundred and sixty lives in 2014-15 including that of the security personnel.
● In August 2014, foreign-secretary level talks were also called off by India at the last moment on
the pretext of Pakistani envoy's meeng with the Kashmiri leaders. During his visit in May 2015, Modi told
China to wisp the trade corridor through Pakistan. Similarly, Abu Dhabi is advised by him to come down
hard on Pakistan. In his inmate swipe with Bangladesh Prime Minister Hasina Wajid during his visit to
Bangladesh, Modi had admied the covert orchestraon of Muk Bahini's rebellion in 1971, which led to the
dismemberment of Pakistan. Efforts are being made to declare Pakistan a terrorist state since 2008. India
even tried to isolate Pakistan at the 8th BRICS summit held at Goa on October 16-17 by using the term
"mother-ship of terrorism", without naming Pakistan.
● "surgical strikes" in September, 2016, at LoC and furious statements of the Indian Defence
Minister Manohar Parrikar of "neutralizing" terrorists with terror, are all a sequel of conflict investment in
the pursuit of 'enlightened self-interest' of India.
● ​Based on the literature review, the paper invesgates the possibility of using the SCO
forum to focus on the identy of percepons for the management of conflicts in their bilateral
relaons. Both India and Pakistan are economically central, polically vital, geographically
conguous and diplomacally cordial to almost all the member states of the forum.

● ​India and Pakistan: Litany of Grievances

● One of the characteriscs of regional cooperaon is strengthening of the moves to seek conflict
management.
● Security, for example, conceptualized as comprehensive, has the core objecve of achieving the
well-being of the region, the naon, the state, the society, the community and the individual.. Its
dimensions could be military, polical, economic, socio-psychological, cultural and ecological
● Conflicts arise when "one or more actors are pursuing incompable goals".³ Hence,
comprehensive and collecve security between and amongst the states would ensure uerly predictable
peace and development
● making of Pakistan as a result of communal discriminaon in 1947, has kept South Asia's collecve
security an 'incandescent of panoply'.
● '. It carries several agonizing controversies for the people of both India and Pakistan. Despite
sharing a long struggle against Brish imperialisc oppression, prejudice and insular naonalism apart from
territorial disputes have stampeded the prosperity in the bilateral relaons of both the neighbors.
● During the months of July- August, 2015, Pakistan accused India of 70 violaons of the LoC and
India accused Pakistan of 91 cross border violaons. Each summoned each other's diplomats for protest,
leading to further deterioraon of the relaonship.
● Taking examples from human history, many bigger states have tried to safeguard their security by
influencing, destabilizing and interfering in their smaller bordering states. For example, Poland had
immense significance for Russia and Germany in their security policy but remained volale despite having
a geostrategic corridor
● India's ambion of driving naonhood across the territorial boundaries of "Greater India" or "Indus
Valley Civilizaon",⁶ has oen complicated the regional atmosphere
● Consequently, this has le a comparavely small and fragile but resilient Pakistan, to struggle
through highs and lows in a fear of existenal threat
● Pakistan had even compromised on its sovereignty during the period of alliances to safeguard
itself
● This resulted in three bloody military encounters between the two naons of India and Pakistan,
loss of the eastern wing of Pakistan (now Bangladesh), and a resource drained nuclear and missile race.
● Where would they start as co-members of the SCO? Who would iniate to challenge the resultant
incongruies required in the cooperaon, both internally and externally?
● To borrow from the Theory of Transcendence for conflict resoluon, proposed by Johan Galtung,
India and Pakistan have the following three opons to respond to the changing world of mul- polarity and
regional integraon: 1. To give up in advance on the outstanding issues, 2. Contenng oneself at the
expense of the other, 3. Or reaching to some compromise.⁷
● ​Together in the SCO
● Evident sasfacon was expressed by its members, at the end of the protracted expansion
stalemate at the SCO summit.
● Inda and Pakistan have joined simultaneously
● . Russia has tradionally been a strong economic and security collaborator of India, while China
has always been an ardent supporter of Pakistan
● In the words of Michael Fugleman, a senior program associate for South and Southeast Asia at
the Wilson Centre in Washington," India is parcularly interested because it lacks direct access to Central
Asia, and it sees the SCO membership as a way to get a beer foothold in the region. The SCO
membership could beer posion India to benefit from Central Asia's gas riches."⁸ Modi, on the
announcement of membership for both India and Pakistan in the Ufa Summit July 2015, said that India's
membership "reflects the natural links of history.... It will also promote peace and prosperity in this vast
region that has oen been called the pivot of human history."⁹ He envisions the ambious fulfillment of
India's dreams as South Asia's regional leader in the SCO.
● Facing an intense war against terrorism and as a frontline state, Pakistan has lost more than
forty-nine thousand lives in the War on Terror (WoT) since 9/11.¹⁰ Nawaz Sharif's perspecve during the
SCO conference was very fundamental and more towards building compability with the eastern neighbor
and ensuring peace in Afghanistan
● With its geo-strategic locaon, Pakistan holds an economic and communicaon corridor for its
South Asian and Central Asian neighbors
● The history of its significance goes back to Silk Route mes. Nawaz Sharif, therefore, emphasized
on 'regional stability and economic integraon to achieve the objecves of peace and development'.
● ​Kashmir: An Apple of Discord
● 12.5 million populaon is enduring draconian Indian laws of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act
(AFSPA), the Disturbed Areas Act (DAA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA), and the Prevenon of Terrorist
Act (POTA) with valour.
● The recent murder of more than one hundred unarmed freedom fighters against the curfew ridden
atmosphere of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) is further abang the possibilies of achieving any
consonance
● Their conduct needs to be in compliance with the charter of the SCO
● It urges "mutual respect of sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of States and
inviolability of State borders, non- aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, non-use of force or
threat of its use in internaonal relaons, seeking no unilateral military superiority in adjacent areas"
● Realiscally, Pakistan's claim in recognizing Kashmir as a disputed territory has a validity
according to UN Security Council's Resoluons47 and 49.
● The UNCIP has passed a resoluon stang: "The queson of accession of the state of Jammu &
Kashmir to India or Pakistan will be decided through the democrac method of free and imparal plebiscite
● Arcle 25 of the UN Charter reiterates the obligatory nature of the UN resoluons and the Security
Council. India itself had originally taken the Kashmir issue to the United Naon and the plebiscite was
promised. This never met its fate in reality.
● In 1974, the Simla Agreement was signed between India and Pakistan. It recognized the LoC,
resulng from the ceasefire of December 17, 1971.Both resolved to respect each other's territorial integrity
and address the basic issues and conflicts without prejudice. Both sides agreed to ensure the
"prerequisites for reconciliaon, good neighborliness and durable peace"
● The Indian Independence Act of 1947 held the provisions for both the majority communies of
Hindus and Muslims living in the sub-connent as "the Dominion of India may be regarded as an
expression of the desire for self-government of the Hindus in India, and the Dominion of Pakistan as the
expression of the desire for self-government by the Muslims."¹⁷. The Brish had le undivided India with an
opon given to Princely States, either to join India or Pakistan or maintain their sovereign status
● The first Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru was from the Kashmiri ancestry himself.
He, in his combinaon of idealism and realism, envisaged a secular and democrazed state of India where
the Muslim populaon from the previous autocrac principalies would also enjoy self-determinaon
● Discuss it further
● The Indian government has become parcularly sensive to the Kashmir issue since the last three
years. The meeng of Nawaz Sharif and Modi on the sidelines of the Ufa Summit in July 2015 provided an
opportunity to both to resume the stalemated bilateral talks.
● To expect a peace process to succeed is unlikely if the main sources of tension remain
unresolved.The conflict of Kashmir is regreably instuonalized on both sides of the border.
● ​Internal Dynamics of Occupied Kashmir
● India is a common party to both the aspects of the Kashmir issue, India vs. Pakistan and India vs.
Kashmiris
● The internal polical dynamics of Occupied Kashmir are daunng. The Indian held Kashmir has
chosen its own government twice only in the post-paron history; and only a limited democrac
development has been witnessed in Kashmir unl the late 1970's
● There had been a serious violaon of basic human rights in Kashmir and the state is experiencing
proliferaon of insurgency
● "Indian security forces have killed 90,986 civilians in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), while Indian
forces under AFSPA had reportedly destroyed about 105,182 shops and houses in Indian held Jammu
and Kashmir
● The stance of Kashmiri people is endorsed by the Amnesty Internaonal report
● A new dimension is added to the internal qualms of the people of Kashmir with the growth of
religious extremism. Extremist tendencies are more readily acceptable in the Indian society by the coming
of Bharitya Janata Party (BJP) and Modi to power.
● The affiliaon of the ruling polical party with the communalist militant polical Hinduism or Hindutva
not only idenfies majoritarian rule but also fosters Hindutva doctrine which communalizes the enre country
even further. Nehru, in his prophec remarks had once warned that “if fascism would arrive in India, it
would arrive in the form of majoritarian (Hindu) communalism"
● ​The Ufa Summit
● With its mul-dimensional characteriscs, the Kashmir issue once again overshadowed the Ufa
summit held between Modi and Nawaz Sharif
● India tried to restrict the agenda to terrorism, alone. The Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma
Swaraj, in fact, had maintained a threatening tone while cancelling the talks against the presence of any
third party.²
● While expressing disappointment on the Ufa summit, Ayaz Akbar, the spokesman of the Hurriyat
said "we did not expect any breakthrough from the meeng. It was just a diplomac compulsion for the
prime ministers of the two countries
● In order to work together on the SCO forum, it is obligatory for its members to enhance
'comprehensive cooperaon' and to strengthen peace and ensure security and stability in the region 'in the
environment of developing polical mul-polarity and economic and informaon globalizaon
● Pakistan, since the recent asc
● endance in its relaons with Russia, stands the chance of transforming Russia's stance on
Kashmir, favorably
● ​Counter--terrorism and Mutual Trust
● The end of the tweneth century has seen a change in global geopolics. The weapon of terrorism
with its polical objecves in sight has been instrumental in using the forces of naonalism, ethnicity, religion,
ideology and social class
● focus of the Ufa summit in 2015 has also been largely on counterterrorism.
● An appeal was made to the United Naons to direct more efforts against terrorism and extremism.
● SCO in its Arcle 3 urges its member states to develop and implement 'measures aimed at jointly
counteracng terrorism, separasm and extremism
● To forward its apprehensions, India has used terrorism both as a tacc and strategy. Pakistan has
been able to unearth the indulgence of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in the insurgency in
Baluchistan and Karachi
● The recent statement of Modi on Baluchistan and accusaon in reference to "they glorify
terrorism"²⁸ is more of an investment in conflict. Earlier Pakistan had given four dossiers aer the
September 2015 session to the UNSecretary General Ban ki moon.
● (ISI), on the other hand has been indicted by India for carrying out terrorism in Kashmir. Pakistan
bears the onus of the July 2006 Mumbai train bombing, 2001 parliament aack, which almost brought the
two naons face to face. Lashker-i-Taiba (LeT) is also widely blamed for the November 2008 aacks on
Mumbai
● In reality, reacon to oppression and an inexcusable Indian abominaon, parcularly in Occupied
Kashmir is somemes interpreted as terrorism and is regreably aached to Pakistan.
● Due tothis transnational terrorists and has kept the South Asian region volale.
● The wide gap between stance and intent, pledge and acon has further complicated the
comprehension of terrorism. Mutual assistance and cooperaon can certainly provide the best andote to
this threat.
● ​Economic Interdependence
● The value of economic interdependence has remained contentious between the liberals and the
realists to bring peace in the conflicng naons
● Although, economic and trade relaons have a disnct role to help evade otherwise polical issues,
as is seen in the case of India and China, yet, instuonal arrangements and the level of integraon required
for regional economic connecvity have to be established on the foreign policies and relaons of the
member states. The SCO's economic instuons have not seen any tangible progress. China has
unilaterally launched its own Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. It has "adopted and revitalized the
Kazak-created Conference on Interacon and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), which some
Chinese aim to make into an influenal pan–Eurasian security structure that excludes Japan and the
United States"³⁰ as forward momentum needs similarity in objecves.
● In the economic relaons of the region, the most basic form is a free-trade area which abolishes or
condenses custom dues between members
● The third level of economic regionalism is based on economic and currency union, as was seen
in the European Union
● Historically, the economic interdependence of India and Pakistan was reasonably voluminous. In
fact, India's share in Pakistan's global exports and imports accounted to 23.6 percent and 50.6 percent in
1948 and 1949 respecvely, which declined to 1.3 to 0.06 percent in 1975-76 respecvely, aer the breakup
of East Pakistan (no
● Pakistan's share in India's exports and imports to the internaonal market was 2.2 percent and 1.1
percent respecvely in 1951-52.³² The decline in the economic relaonship is most noceable during the mes
of polical tension
● India granted Most Favored Naon (MFN) status to Pakistan in 2006 in consonance with the WTO
agreement, which is pending for reciprocaon from Pakistan. According to the figures, Pakistan's exports
to India had recorded at US$1.735 billion during 2006-7-2011-12, against the imports of 8,363 billion
dollars. This leaves the naon to face a loss of 6 billion dollar trade deficit. T
● ​Uni--polarity vs. Mul--polarity: A Delicate Straddling
● Through SCO, China and Russia are building a decidedly mul-polar "Eurasian" point of view
● Its strategic aims are to condemn any efforts to achieve "monopoly in world affairs", divide the
world into "leaders and followers" and "impose models of social development."
● This obviously reflects China's insistence on "mul-polar" world as against the US persistence of
"uni-polar" internaonal order.³⁴
● In its newly found rapprochement, mainly predisposed by China, Russia sees Pakistan as a
responsible state commied to counter terrorism contrary to India's calling of Pakistan a "backward rogue
state" secretly controlled by the "terrorists".In fact, it is underpinning the Russian plans to ship arms to
Pakistan. A joint military exercise was conducted by Pakistan and Russia recently in the month of
September- October, 2016. China is also convinced of its co-members of the SCO that India and
Pakistan should let go of their historical acrimony. It has urged both to cooperate with the shared
mullaterally beneficial vision of enhancing China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and pan-Eurasian
connecvitity
● Nonetheless, the 'trip wire' relaonship between India and Pakistan and China and India is a
vulnerable point for the organizaon. For example, the CPEC project which routes through the legimate
Pakistani territory of Gilgit and Balstan is considered part of the disputed territory of Kashmir. Though the
world recognizes it otherwise, India fears that it would permanently e the region with Pakistan.
● Similarly, there is no doubt that India has played a significant role in the promoon of economic
and instuonal mul-polarity, and has historically rearranged the global trade and financial networks, it has
gone contrary to the geopolical mul-polarity by following the three guiding precepts of its foreign policy for
the region: 1. Containing China, as an ardent ally of the US in its policy of "Asia Pivot". It would posion
India to counterweight China as well as find an alternate strategic partner of Russia. It paradoxically
pushes Modi's India into uni-polarity. 2. Confronng Pakistan, with which it has fractured relaons ever
since.³⁶ 3. With the connuing human rights violaons in Indian Occupied Kashmir, India has been widely
cricized by the human rights organizaons in the world. Besides, the violaon of the UN Security Council
resoluons is evident.

Sino-African Strategic Partnership and Stratagem of Foreign Aid: Implications for the West
● China's ascending role and its comprehensive involvement in the African region is of great
concern for many Western commentators. Among the Third World states, China stands out to be
victorious aer surpassing obstacles. It has emerged as a developing state with enormous economic
stability. China's relaon with Africa is of a strategic nature which works to reduce intolerable issues,
extend economic benefits, and deal with Africa as an equal trading partner. Both China and Africa shared
the common historical legacy of imperialism and believed that foreign aid is a new technique designed for
exploitaon. As a result, Africa is leaning more towards China than it was ever before. China's growing
economic influence in different regions like Africa is emerging as an interesng area of foreign policy
debate among the western polical scholars mostly viewing China's strategic relaons as a major concern
for the western interests in semi- peripheral and peripheral regions
● This research also tries to view the Chinese percepon of foreign aid as an instrument of trade and
investment in the African region as a part of its strategic stratagem to enlarge Chinese influence, which is
significantly different from the western stand view of aid and assistance to the developing and
underdeveloped states.
● The tweneth century brought discernible changes in world polics by dividing it into economically
deviang blocs
● This demarcaon has been established as a visible term of Internaonal Polical Economy since
1960s, precisely disnguishing the rich core states from semi-peripheral and peripheral states
● Despite the fact that the global South is enriched with natural resources and manpower, several
domesc factors like under- development, civil war, backwardness, lack of proper administrave
infrastructures, corrupt pracces, bribes and most notably polical instability made these states vulnerable
to external dominance.
● These inherent limitaons led these states to consider foreign aid as a significant remedy to
resolve their economic and developmental problems
● ​Theorecal Understanding of Foreign Aid as Foreign Policy Strategy
● The concept of foreign aid is not new. One can find ample instances in the history of internaonal
polics, where states oen relieved each other against any uncomplimentary circumstances or impulsive
natural disaster
● these iniaves were week and short termed and oen known as humanitarian assistance.
● Acve parcipaon of states in the shape of military assistance, technology, the exchange of
informaon and monetary issues can be traced back to the World War II
● Post WW II scenario- truman doctrine aid
● China is among those states that emerged as an independent enty aer its struggle against
colonizaon in 1949. Its gradual and consistent economic and sustainable polical development made it a
role model for other states of the global South. China's history of oppression and humiliaon as a result of
imperial and colonial control by European powers and Japan provided a major theme in its foreign policy
orientaon that centered on the idea of non-interference in the maers of other states.
● According to Morgenthau, foreign aid is an “innovaon” in modern foreign policy. This innovaon
helps many states to reconstruct them
● Now, mostly Third World states depend on foreign aid and assistance program mainly from the
western donors. Carol Lancaster described foreign aid as a policy or a part of long term policy in order to
achieve the long term naonal goals
● R. C Riddell expounded foreign aid as the transfer of all goods, resources, skills and praccal
informaon, financial grants whether as gi or concessional loans.³
● To comprehend the phenomena of foreign aid, it is important to understand the hypothecal base
for foreign aid
● Many spectators deliberate and frequently interface it with the two noteworthy schools of thought
in internaonal relaons; Realism and Liberalism
● Under the Realism paradigm, the primary contenon is based on the assumpon that the world is
anarchic and there is no supreme power to regulate the relaons. The overwhelming element of realism is
the survival of the fiest, so in order to ensure security and maintain exisng status quo, states fervently
embraced those strategies which are viable for their survival. One of such power execuon instruments is
the foreign aid through which, a powerful state exercises its authority and extends its sphere of influence.
● Liberalism paradigm, on the other hand, advocates human rights, free will and free trade among
the states. Liberal stand considers individuals as instrumental in internaonal relaons. Liberalism believes
that people start such procedures which expand associaon and thus augment the survival risks and
minimize the perils. In this globalized paradox, interdependence and interacon is necessary and no state
can avoid it. In this manner, foreign aid is a powerful and helping tool to increase harmony between the
donor and recipient states.
● With the advent of globalizaon, specifically with the economic expansion of markets across the
globe and emergence of non-state actors as significant players, there is a need for an exclusive theorecal
framework to understand the phenomena of foreign aid
● Modernizaon theorists aempt to locate a pathway to accomplish development, while claiming that
the Third World states are dependent and underdeveloped due to the inherent exploitave structures of the
internaonal economic order
● Many of the dependency theorists also expounded that it's a trap to capture African rich
resources and to introduce them to the capitalist world.⁴
● According to Modernizaon theory, social change is mul- dimensional. Most of the developed
states passed through the same procedure. It is an evoluonary process from backwardness to illuminaon
to achieving polical development; hence it is evoluonary not revoluonary.⁵ States from North Pole are not
ready to facilitate the South countries to pass through that process of evoluon, and are intenonally
restricng them by imposing sancons and discouraging proteconist policies which is coined by Ha Joon
Chang as “Kicking Away the Ladder”.
● ​Dependency Theory
● The aforemenoned speculaons encompass the relaonship between foreign policy, foreign aid,
power, development and modernizaon. One way or the other these theories work to maintain the status
quo of major powers
● Aer WWII, major states were economically wrecked and polically fragmented.
● Before that, weak states' exploitaon was at it's peak. Aer the war, social sciensts tried to develop
a framework for polical and economic development in peripheral states. Marxists rejected the cooperaon
by adopng the policies of trade and avoidance of conflict through power polics. Marxists focused on the
economy, which superseded other aspects of polical development.
● Neo-Marxist theorists debate over the unjusfied division of wealth among states: why the Third
World states depend on the core states. Dependency theory is strongly affiliated with Marxism, which
maintains that major powers penetrate for natural resources in developing states
● Dependency theory strongly contributes towards foreign aid;
● Dependency theory was a result of failure of the United Naons Economic Commission for Lan
America and the structural inequality between North and South
● following a modernizaon path to achieve development was also rejected by the dependency
theorists.
● Frank asserted the developmental process of the developing states by cricizing the concept of
modernizaon theorists who claimed that the underdevelopment is due to ignorance and backwardness.
● Frank gave the examples of China and India who were once developed but because of
colonizaon, confronted backwardness.
● Under Metropolis Satellite Exploitaon Model, Frank explains that an underdeveloped state works
as a satellite state of a hegemon by transferring economic surplus.
● Another reason of exploitaon is the foreign direct investment, loans and grants, which later
become an impediment in the developmental phase of the local market.
● By examining the main contenon of both the realist and the liberalist, one can differenate that a
power struggle and interdependency are the catalysts of change
● Liberals were regularly condemned by the crics for advancing private enterprise and encouraging
another way of exploitaon. Realists used individual's penalty and power polics to extend their status quo.
● Although many scholars have discussed the concept of foreign aid, the dependency theory has
provided a more comprehensive and conceptual development to understand this phenomena and its
relaon with the core and periphery states
● Foreign aid, as a policy measure, has its varying consequences according to its objecves, type,
nature of restricons and condions aached
● The main advantage of foreign aid in any underneath state is that it will bridge the gap between
budget deficit and capital formaon
● Developing a proper infrastructure for agriculture, the industrial segment is challenging for
developing states due to their inability to properly employ natural resources and human capital in
investment sector. Through foreign aid, new specialized learning and data can, without much of a stretch,
be passed on. Coordinated effort with any developed state in specialized terms will expand the adequacy
and efficiency of a developing state.
● Foreign aid in the shape of food, sanctuary and medicine will help to meet the emergencies
● Foreign aid, if ulized properly will create income and build the expectaon for everyday comforts of
the beneficiary states.
● On the other hand, foreign aid can be used as a neo-imperialist strategy by donor countries to put
the recipient states in a subservient posion. This can lead to empowering donor countries to pull the
polical and diplomac strings through economic-hegemonic control.
● The main disadvantage of foreign aid is the increase in foreign debt. With increasing interest rate,
it is difficult for a receiving state to pay the debt and meet their needs.
● Recipient countries do not exert for the proper use of foreign aid. Somemes it is used to enrich
policians, bureaucrats and other top orders of the state
● Foreign aid is a tool of exploitaon and is employed by major powers in order to extend their
polical influence or to accomplish their foreign policy goals.
● ​Progression of Sino--African Ideological, Economic and Strategic Ties
● Throughout the years, economic stability and polical development remained the main theme of
Chinese foreign policy towards major regions of the world which considerably enlarged its area of
influence across the globe.
● Africa is one of the significant regions, which is of great importance to China's investment and
trade for its sustainability of economic development and military power.
● The economic and polical relaons between China and Africa dated 500 years back. However, a
profound change was observed in the last three decades a
● Sino-African foreign relaons were iniated in 1951 by establishing China's diplomac es with Egypt
● Polical commentators and scholars describe the transformaon of Sino-African relaonship from
formal diplomac es to a strategic partnership. They divide the nature of foreign aid into three main phases
● The first phase was characterized by China's urge of geng polical and diplomac recognion majorly
from the global South as China was not on good terms with both the Capitalist West and the expansionist
and revisionist USSR. In this phase, China's collaboraon with many Asian and African naons was
structured on the basis of shared history under colonialism and ideological discernment against Western
dominaon. African states were also looking for diplomac and financial support from the polical allies to
advance their naonalist movements for independence.The Sino-African relaons were reconnected in the
Bandung Conference of 1955, where Zhou Enlai supported the struggle of developing states against
colonialism. Before that, five principles of peaceful coexistence also laid the basis for non-interference
and friendly relaons with neighboring states.Under the Cold War seng, foreign aid was considered a vital
polical mean that Beijing used to expand its diplomac recognion and to compete with the Soviet Union
and the US, and to obtain recognion, support from the African region.From the year 1966 onward, despite
China's determinaon to support Third World states against neo-imperialism, its domesc uncertaines
caused by the Cultural Revoluon diverted its focus from nourishing its partnership with the African states.
However diplomac relaons were sll extended to many African countries.
● The second phase of Sino-African relaons began in the Post- Maoist period. China at that me
inevitably needed new investments in economic markets across the globe. The aim was to modernize its
economy and enlarge its power under the commercial strategic theme of “Go Global”.
● However, in this era, Beijing heavily depended on the West for expanding its commercial links and
for technical advancement. This led China to confine its role to being only a facilitator in the “North-South
Dialogue” instead of acng as a champion of an-imperialist causes as it aempted in the first phase of
relaons with Africa. This led China to expand its contacts towards Western countries to advance its
economic development. Moreover, the lack of financial resources was also one of the reasons behind
China's incapacity to assist or support African countries against dictators.²³
● The third phase of foreign aid was based on economic pragmasm. In this third phase of its
relaonship with African region, the orientaon of its policy emerged as non-ideological and more inspired
by its “Go Global Strategy”.²⁴ In this phase China seemed less concerned with the type of regime and
their ideological posions. It was primarily the economic interests that shaped the Chinese behavior in its
foreign relaons.
● Foreign aid is one of the significant aspects of Sino-African relaons since the incepon of their es,
however, China has its own meaning, definion and strategy of foreign aid in accordance with its
developmental path evidently diverse from the Western perspecve.²⁵ Notwithstanding Beijing's claim that
the aid and assistance to Africa is thoroughly related to economic development, polical commentators
have noted that the polical and diplomac intents have been driving the aid program.
● China amassed a substanal role in the internaonal aid system; especially its long term
engagement with African states is increasing the apprehension among major states. China was the first
developing country to establish an aid program
● ​China provided foreign aid for three reasons; strategic interest, commercial and economic
benefit and ideological objecves.²⁸⁸
● Furthermore Beijing and Chinese commercial companies have three key economic interests in
the African region:²⁹ Quest for natural resource import. Ulizaon of a rising and comparavely unexplored
economic market for Chinese exports and investment. A thriving prospect for Chinese companies to
increase employment opportunies and accomplishment of “Go Global” commercial strategy.³⁰
● In the year 2000, Sino-African strategic partnership was further strengthened by the
establishment of 'Forum on China-Africa Cooperaon (FOCAC).'³¹
● ​Main theme of this conference from Chinese perspecve was: Appraising prospects of
South--South Cooperaon Construcon of internaonal economic and polical order in accordance
with South's reservaons and concerns.³²

● ​Ideological Partnership
● Since the Cold War period, in order to enhance the 'third-world solidarity', China advanced its
image as an alternate model of polical and economic development against neo-imperialist and North
dominated-power polics. Though Beijing never overtly pronounced this policy, however, to validate its
economic and polical centralizaon within the Chinese state apparatus, “Beijing Consensus of state-based
capitalism and ghter polical control” are largely propagated.³⁷
● While the “Beijing Consensus” is a Western term, Chinese sources do portray parts of China's
state-led economic model as an alternative to that of the more private-led model of Western states. For
example, Xinhua, “China's Development Model Good Example for African Nations:
● Africa was pivotal for China in its early struggle for recognion in the world arena.
● China's state centered policies are also commendable for Africa as it encouraged domesc market
due to which the inflow of imports and exports has increased. On the other hand, Africa has its
sustainable visibility in internaonal organizaons such as the United Naons and its vote is crucial for China
● ​Economic Partnership
● Chinese polical and commercial actors are more inclined to view Africa through an “opmist” lens,
while the Western actors mostly resort to a “pessimisc” approach largely owing to the prevalent problems
of famine and conflic
● China's economic es with the African region are built on strong structural foongs as Africa's
generous store of crude oil and raw materials are very crucial for China's enormous economy
● More importantly, the Chinese involvement in Africa is based on shared advantages with minimal
polical objecves. Their relaonship is more about partnership than that of a borrower and lender
● China's presence in Africa is mul-lateral which further extended visibly during 1990's. China has
increased its inclusion, investment, transfer of technology and resources in Africa. Major focus was on
infrastructure building.
● In 2005 China lied import tariff from 190 goods from 29 African states
● China also has become the largest exporter of small armaments and light weapons to African
countries
● China's economic partnership is helping many African states to maintain their sustainability. Many
states got ample opportunies to balance their trade rao with the export of crude materials
● ​Social Partnership
● One disnguished feature of China's aid to Africa is non-condional loans which are more
convenient than the Western Structural Adjustment Program (SAP). The West is more concerned about
democrac reforms in Africa, whereas, China focuses more on polical and economic development. China
is the major contributor in infrastructure building. With the coordinated efforts of local African market and
strategic monetary policies, China has introduced a posive investment environment in Africa. This iniave
is more conducive and slanted towards development as it is more compable with the ground realies of
Africa
● On the higher educaon level, China and Africa share common goals and have taken mutual steps
to increase the cooperaon in this regard. In 1950s, 1960s and 1970s, the paern of educaon iniaves was
limited and based on paral educaonal exchange programs
● acon plan of Forum on China Africa Cooperaon (FOCAC, 2000) focused more on training and
scholarships for African students
● Further, to improve efficiency, the human development mechanism was set up to train the
African professionals. Since the last decade, the volume of professional training and scholarships has
been increased to double in size. T
● ​China's Foreign Aid strategies in Africa and Implicaon for the West
● China's rapid expansion and its muldimensional engagement in LDCs are augmenng cricisms
and concerns among western donors.
● Crics largely manifest that China's aid programs are enormous but serve to support generally the
undemocrac regimes
● However, it is largely recognized that irrespecve of the nature, objecve and orientaons of the
Chinese aid program, it is strengthening its foreign relaons vigorously. China's aid system has emerged
as a significant and formidable alternave to the persisng western aid regime. China as a non OECD⁵⁵
(Organizaon of Economic Cooperaon and Development) member is increasing its global development
community which is enlarging China's polical influence in several regions
● “Across economic, polical, and security domains, the growth of China's presence has been swi
and staggering. For example, Sino- African trade increased almost twenty folds since 2000, supplanng
the US as the connents' largest trading partner. Among the permanent United Naons (UN) Security
Council members, China's People's Liberaon Army (PLA) is the largest contributor to the United Naons
Peacekeeping in Africa, deploying 20 mes the number of peacekeepers it sent to Africa in 2000. In
addion, approximately 1 million Chinese live in Africa, up from only a few thousand, ten years ago.”
● The economic and polical system offered by China is state-centric which has enrely altered the
exisng world order thus challenging the economic and polical orthodoxy
● One unmistakable element of China and the West is that regardless of having over 4000 years of
age history, China never expected to mediate or assault some other state for expansionism
● Most significantly, China's emergent interests in Africa will probably compel Beijing to remain a
keen observer of internal affairs of African countries as its energy security and energy interests are
primarily driven by its broader interests of securing economic development and augmenng its polical
influence across the globe.⁵⁹
● China presently as the world's second-largest oil consumer and importer receives almost 21
percent of its oil imports from the African region, which enhances its stakes in African polical stability and
development for ensuring its energy security.⁶⁰
● Largely China is under heavy cricism from the West for not following the tradional donor
standards. This generated challenges for the European Union and its working in Africa. It is generally
assumed that China's foreign aid programs are neither transparent nor confined to serve the economic
interests, but largely comprised of its global and polical interests about expanding its area of influence.
● It is generally understood that Africa prefers China over the West because the policies
experienced under the western aid system have been incompable with development realies and had
largely failed to bring any relave and substanal change in African economic development.
● So, one can relate to China's aid to Africa by the following equaon:
● No Strings aached+non-interference= Modern Donors (China)
● Condional loans+ good governance (Polical Stability) = Tradional Donors
● The Western foreign aid system is based on Washington's consensus, under which many
restricons were being imposed on the recipient states to comply with the principles of fiscal policy, interest
rates, the flow of trade and public resource disbursement, etc. The main purpose of these arrangements
is to reduce poverty. However, these fiscal policies and aid provisions seem lile relevant with exisng
economic realies of recipient countries which significantly contribute for ad hoc management and short
lived governance strategies
● ​Social Partnership
● China extended its official relaons with Africa in 1956 by iniang diplomac es with Egypt. Since
then, they have become all weather friends. China currently has diplomac relaons with 51 states out of 54
in Africa and these relaons are built on shared goals, common interests, mutual understanding and
unanimity on regional and internaonal issues
● Even though Africa is gied with natural resources, e.g. Africa owns 40% of world's potenal
hydroelectric power supply, 30% of world's uranium, 50% of world's gold, 40% planum, 7.5% of the
world's coal, 8 % of discovering oil reserves, 12% of natural gas reserves, 60% of cocoa and 70 % of
coffee reserves, yet it is the dark connent of all.⁶⁴ Its colonial past, polical crisis and slavery further
worsens the situaon. In this regard, Africa needs strategic partnership of a country that not only helps
Africa in improving its overall condion, but also treats Africa as a strategic partner rather than only a
recipient of aid. 64George B.N. Ayittey, Africa in Chaos: A Comparative History (New York: St. Martin's
Press, 1998),5-6 China Africa Relations:= Strategic Partnership/ Win-Win Situation
● Historical harmony between Africa and China is an important contribung factor in the strategic
interest of both. China supported African states when they were polically isolated and economically
deteriorang.

Balance of Power in South Asia: The Politics of Nuclear Deterrence between Pakistan and India
● Balance of Power mechanism is meant to ensure the existence of the nation state in the
internaonal system through creang a balancing mechanism or equilibrium of power. Polical scene of
Europe has been witnessing this mechanism for the last 400 years, though in varied forms. The arrival of
nuclear weapons transformed the dynamics of the balance of power system. This factor has raised the
relevance of balance of power in favor of polical forces at the expense of military power. The realists,
nonetheless, argue that it is the interplay of military and polical dimensions of balance of power i.e. the
characteriscs of the naon state's balancing approach vis-a-vis the dominant player in the system. The
concept of power equilibrium has led the Italian born polical scienst A.F.K. Organski to opine that it is not
equilibrium of power that guarantees peace, but the preponderance of power between great powers that
leads to lasng peace and order in the internaonal polics. Relavely weak players in the internaonal system
get engaged with strong ones to minimize their opponent's military threats and may opt for deterrence
capability. As a result strategic balancing comes into effect. The focus of this study is to analyze the
convenonal power imbalance between India and Pakistan since independence. Super powers' struggle
for influence in the South Asian region has been a great disturbing factor for regional equilibrium. It will
also be analyzed in this study as to how the convenonal and nuclear forces have been used by both India
and Pakistan to counterbalance not only each other's moves but also the intenons. An interesng paradox
of the power moves of both countries will be studied in which the regional outreach of one country (India)
is straight away considered as a threat to the very survival of the other country (Pakistan)
● ​Theorecal Framework
● The year 1947 brought about new lessons to the history and alteraons to the geography of the
world. The emergence of two new states in South Asia created new opportunies with corresponding
challenges in the internaonal system
● The Indo-Pak hoslity, right from the paron of the South Asian Subconnent, owes its origin to the
external actor i.e. the role of Great Britain
● Having been indecisive to resolve the Kashmir issue before its departure from India was the first
sign of sowing the seeds of hoslity by Britain between the two South Asian neighbours
● The hosle atude of India towards Pakistan from the very start compelled the laer to seek and
invite foreign influence to the region and the same was manifested in the larger Cold War confrontaon
● Faced with the security dilemma posed by a preponderant India, Pakistan joined the US
sponsored military pacts i.e. SEATO and CENTO in 1950s, while India made the counter move by
showing a lt towards the Soviet Union
● In the eyes of realists, both the powers of South Asia embarked upon the courses of real-polic
relying excessively on hard military power and trying everything possible to counter the preponderance of
each other
● Here comes the paradox: India was bent upon assuming the role of regional power and Pakistan
was endeavouring hard to survive in its own territorial boundaries
● acon of India (the preponderant power) was viewed by Pakistan (the weaker player) as an
existenal threat.
● The shi of focus of balance of power from convenonal to nuclear is because of the imbalance
between the size, resources, outreach and percepons of India and Pakistan.
●
● “in Pakistan's nuclear strategy, the primary task of its nuclear weapons is not to deter India's
nuclear weapons, but to avoid an engagement with a superior military capability
● The study of the dynamics of expansionary policies of India and contradictory reacons of
Pakistan constutes the theorecal framework for the study of balance of power in South Asia where every
acon of India has been inving a prompt reacon from Pakistan. I
● India outlines its security arch extending from the Strait of Hormuz in the West to the Strait of
Malacca in the Southeast. As a reacon, Pakistan has been promong the rhetoric of being a member of the
Islamic Ummah stretching from Morocco in the West to Malaysia in the Southeast
● So it can safely be assumed that joining of the Western camp by Pakistan in 1950s, having
friendship with China in 1960s, playing a pivotal role against Soviet Union during 1979 and 1989, and
envisaging a role of pioneer of the Pan-Islamism in 1990s were all reacons to the Indian moves of
becoming a regional hegemon.
● Similarly the Arab world's lt towards India aer the Cold War was another sign of India realizing its
dream of geng strategic preponderance within its strategic arch
● we will be studying the push and pull factors of the two powers of South Asia that have shaped
the balance of power structures right from the paron of India.
● ​In the Arena: India's Vision of Akhand Baharat (in the Light of Chanakya's Arthashastra)
and Pakistan's Reacon
● Chanakya was the famous Indian polician, strategist and writer during the period 350 BC-283 BC.
He was an adviser and a prime minister to the first Maurya Emperor Chandragupta (340-293 BC), and is
the architect of his rise to power. Chanakya studied at Takshashila, nowadays called Taxila in Pakistan.
Takshashila was a great centre of learning and the teachers here were highly knowledgeable who used to
teach sons of kings. Later Chanakya himself became a teacher at Takshashila University. So famous was
Chanakya in the vicinity of the university that he had many nicknames namely – Vishnugupta, Kaulya etc.
etc. He lived his life working to his capacity in pursuit of his vision of a happy, strong and prosperous
India. It is widely believed that Chanakya was the first person to propagate the idea of the first Indian
Empire or Akhand Bharat.⁶
● The paron of the South Asian Sub-connent has not been recognized from the core of its heart by
India even today and resorng to use the phrase of Akhand Bharat by some polical hawks in the country
spells out the real intent of the Indian polical leadership's mind.
● India's bier relaons with almost all of its neighbours has been a tesmony to this aggrandizing
policy.⁷
● In his recent book, ‘World Order,’ Henry Kissinger refers to the ancient Indian trease, the
Arthashastra, wrien by Chanakya, as a book that lays out the requirements of power, which is the
“dominant reality” in polics.
● For Kissinger, the Arthashastra contained a realist vision of polics long before The Prince
● Kissinger deems Arthashastra as a “combinaon of Machiavelli and Clausewitz.” Meanwhile, the
German sociologist Max Weber once called it “truly radical Machiavellianism”, and that compared to it,
Machiavelli's ‘The Prince’ is harmless.⁸ The mainstream polical pares, like Baharaya Janata Party (BJP),
argue that countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Tibet, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Burma
are part of undivided India. These countries are part of Akhand Bharat
● Pakistan has been instrumental in resisng this mindset of the Indian leadership since its incepon
and it is primarily because of this Indian acon that has defined all of Pakistan's reacons.
● Pakistan's rhetoric of being a member of the Islamic Ummah stretching from Morocco to Malaysia
is the most conspicuous example of countering India's vision of Akhand Bharat. The changing paerns /
dynamics of balance of power between India and Pakistan can be seen in this perspecve.
● ​Paerns/Dynamics of Balance of Power in South Asia India's Designs in Regional Context
(India's acons vis--a--vis its neighbors)
● Having a strategic look at India's neighborhood, it encompasses the enre region from the Strait of
Hormuz to the Strait of Malacca. India views it its security parameter. Any development in this arch has a
great impact on India's security
● On the Western side, almost six million Indians are having their jobs in the Gulf, sending
remiances of over $50 billion to their home country annually
● sending remiances of over $50 billion to their home country annually.⁹ This region is the largest
supplier of oil and gas to India.
● t. The Bay of Bengal has Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand as lioral states. This stretch of the
sea is the link to Southeast Asia and beyond. For buressing India's 'Look East' policy, this area is of vital
importance. Apart from India forging bilateral es with these countries, the security of the sea lanes of
communicaon in an area where the only regional blue water navy is Indian, devolves some special
responsibilies on India.¹
● Seeing geographically, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives constute
the core of India's neighborhood. Myanmar is a conguous neighbor. However, since India has been
looking at the SAARC countries over the years as her neighbors, Myanmar lost its importance despite its
crical geographical locaon adjacent to the Northeastern region of the country. Afghanistan is not a direct
geographic neighbor. However, with the inclusion of Afghanistan as a full member of SAARC, the polical
case for treang Afghanistan as an integral part of India's neighborhood stands reinforced.¹¹
● With China's occupaon of Tibet, the former has become direct neighbor of India. The unresolved
border dispute between India and China constutes a major Indian foreign policy problem. This issue is
coloring India's relaonship with the world's foremost rising power.
● Moreover, in India's percepon, China has adversely influenced India's relaons with its South
Asian neighbors. China, therefore, qualifies as India's most formidable neighbor
● The management of relaons with neighbors is always a declared priority in any country's foreign
policy. The credibility of a country's regional and global posture is undermined if it is seen as bogged
down in disputes and conflicts with neighbors
● In this context, India had problems with Bangle Dash (India's endeavors to influence its domesc
as well as foreign policy), Sri Lanka (India's interference in its internal affairs in the form of supporng
LTTE), Bhutan (water sharing dispute), Nepal (India's strict control of its economy and foreign relaons)
and its simmering territorial and water sharing disputes with Pakistan have le scars on the body polic of
India having dire consequences for its becoming a regional power
● Adding insult to injury is its fragile peace with China w
● However, having set for itself a regional as well as internaonal role, India had been able to
extract concessions both from former Soviet Union in the past and the US during the Cold War
● The new alignment in the region now holds India, the US, Russia, Iran and Afghanistan in its
orbit. It clearly illustrates that internaonal relaons are conducted not on emoonal desires but purely on
naonal interests, which are permanent
● ​Pakistan's Reaction
● Pakistan has been pursuing a policy that would ensure its existence vis-a- vis preponderant
convenonal power of India.
● Pakistan's inability to match military superiority of India took it to the Western bloc in the 1950s.
However, the disillusionment with the Western powers and the US during the 1965 Indo-Pak war led
Pakistan to seek friendship with China.¹
● The noon of inving foreign powers to regional balance of power mechanism was in full swing then
during 1950s and 1960s. Pakistan's geng closer to China was dictated by the Sino-Indian war of 1962
● 'The enemy of my enemy is my friend' concept guided Pakistan's policy to embrace China
● India concluded a security and defence treaty with the Soviet Union in August 1971 which
culminated in the dismemberment of Pakistan in December the same year.
● This was the turning point in the South Asian affairs which compelled Pakistan to seek something
else, something more trustworthy to guarantee its survival in the face of heavy odds. Resorng to nuclear
opon provided one such panacea
● Nuclear tests by India in 1974 fuelled Pakistan's quest to pursue a nuclear agenda that was
allegedly assisted by China and funded by the oil rich Arab countries of the Gulf,¹⁶ the last having been
proven enrely untrue.
● The dynamics of this shiing associaon of Pakistan were obvious: its alignment with the US earned
her isolaon from the Soviet bloc, its alignment with China and facilitang a Sino-US rapprochement
resulted in earning the wrath of both India and the Soviet Union and its subsequent strengthening of es
with the Arab World led Iran to seek friends in the Arab world who were already under the Soviet
influence
● Thus Indo-Pakistan rivalry led to the regional alignment in which Saudi Arabia, China and
Pakistan with lile bit support of the US were on one side and Soviet Union/Russia, India, the radical Arab
countries of Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria were on the other
● The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan provided a set of new opportunies to Pakistan and its drive for
nuclearizaon went unabated.¹⁹
● In order to benefit Pakistan's role in containing the communist threat across the Durand Line, the
US turned a blind eye on Pakistan's nuclear programme unl 1989-90
● Iran started exerng its influence in Afghanistan through its surrogates. The emergence of Taliban
on the polical horizon of Afghanistan presented Iran with a reasonable pretext to come with daggers
drawn against Pakistan in Afghanistan
● The advances of Taliban in Afghanistan were viewed by Tehran as a challenge to its monopoly
of the so-called leadership of the Islamic world and she started influencing the course of acon in Pakistan
through strengthening and supporng the Shia community in Pakistan.²
● The new dimensions of balance of power between India and Pakistan brought Iran on India's side
and Saudi Arabia on Pakistan's. The acons of India and reacons of Pakistan led to the introducon of new
foreign actors on the South Asian horizon.
● ​External Actors (Opportunies afforded to them by India's acons and Pakistan's reacons)
UK, USA, USSR/Russia, China, KSA, Iran, Non--State Actors
● Pakistan faced the security dilemma immediately aer independence and she joined SEATO and
CENTO in the 1950s
● India had already showed its lt towards the Soviet Union because, her policy of non-alignment
coincided with the Soviet objecve of checking the growing power of the US military alliances. These
military pacts had a direct impact on the Indo-Pak es
● The most important phase so far started aer the 9/11 aack on the US, aer which, the US policy
makers realized the importance of South Asia once again in their “Global War on Terror (GWT). Now the
US administraon focused its aenon on South Asia, with a key objecve to find partners in their war on
terrorism.²¹
● n the 21 century, the strengthening of US-India strategic partnership, parcularly in the nuclear
field, is a cause of concern for South Asian security
● The US-Indian deal (through strengthening India) could further impose Indian hegemony in South
Asia
● So far, Pakistan had tried to play the role of a balancer in the region.
● According to Agha Shahi, the US declaraon in March 2005 to help India become a “major world
power in the 21st century” would enable India to project its power in its “neighborhood and beyond”
● Pakistan is intrinsically inclined to resist India's polical dominance, by diplomacy when possible
and by force when necessary. The stage is thus set for connued rivalry between the two states.²³
● The tension between India and Pakistan provided an excellent opportunity to China to raise its
stature in the Indian subconnent. India- Pakistan animosity is deep-rooted in religion, history, and the
polics of revenge and thus predates India-China hoslity
● Former Director of China's Peoples' Liberaon Army's General Staff Intelligence Department,
General Xiong Guangkai had once remarked that Pakistan is China's Israel….Beijing has long been an
acve player in the India-Pakistan- China triangular relaonship
● Since the Sino-Indian border war of 1962, China has aligned itself with Pakistan and made huge
strategic and economic investments with a view to keep the common enemy, India under strategic
pressure (this included Karakurram Highway (KKH), construcon and development of Gawadar port, and
now China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
● In this triangular power balance game, the South Asian military balance of power is neither
pro-India nor pro-Pakistan; rather it has always been pro-China. And Beijing will take all means possible,
including war, to ensure that the regional power balance does not lt in India's favour.
● Another paradox developed here. The tradional Saudi-Iran rivalry of gaining mastery of the Gulf
and the Middle East found a new bale ground in Pakistan as well. The soil of Pakistan now started to be
used for the proxy wars of Saudi Arabia and Iran. This was one of the corollaries of the balance of power
between India and Pakistan
● ​Nuclearizaon of South Asia
● The primary task of Pakistan's nuclear capability is not to deter India's nuclear weapons, but to
avoid an engagement with a superior military capability. Pakistan believes that its nuclear weapons
constrain India from resorng to an acve military adventurism.
● Pakistani strategic establishment is determined to uphold balance of terror with India to deter its
aggression or blackmailing taccs.²
● While quong Ayub Khan, the former President of Pakistan, as having said in his January 1968
diary, the former Indian diplomat Rajiv Dogra writes, “two things have unbalanced India completely; the
1962 clash with China and the 1965 war with Pakistan….So, whilst wanng a Kashmir soluon, we should
show no undue anxiety. Let India bleed ll she can no longer bear the burden of big power chauvinism.
She may then come to her senses”
● Aer the dismemberment of Pakistan in December 1971, it was Indira Gandhi who ordered
'Buddha is smiling'.²⁹ The smile on Buddha's face was a nightmare for Pakistan. That is why, despite the
opposion, economic sancons (1970s, 1980s, 1990s) and negave signaling over safety and security of its
nuclear weapons programme (since 9/11) by the US and like-minded states, Islamabad has been up
surging its nuclear arsenal.
● The nuclear weapon of Pakistan was meant only to correct the strategic imbalance in South Asia
that had caused Pakistan half of its body. B
● ​Balance of Power Revisited
● War as the ulmate recourse of the naon state has been at its disposal ever since the history has
begun to be recorded. Prevenve wars, as were espoused by the 19th century Brish statesmen
Castlereagh and Austrian Maernich, were the common panacea for peace
● These wars were fought somemes unilaterally by some powerful state while somemes a cluster
of naons fought a war against the preponderant power of the time
● ​Page 14 tk hai ye

Geo-Economics or Geo-Politics? China's rise in Asia and the US

● The geostrategic environment of Asia-Pacific region has changed from the US' dominance to now
also China's increasing existence
● The US strategists think that their country must have a military capability of countering and
defeang an emerging competor, which in this case is China. The US' response to China's emergence in
the Pacific region has also been full of confusion. For example, in 2012, Hillary Clinton (the then
Secretary of State) said, “Pacific is big enough for all of us”. However, on the other hand, the US has
been taking steps, militarily and otherwise, to counter China. The US has already established a military
base in Darwin, Australia. Recently, the biggest trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), was
reached between 12 Pacific Rim countries, including the US and Japan as the key players. China was
intenonally le out of the TPP agreement. This paper focuses on the constantly changing nature of
compeon between the US and China in the Asia-Pacific and its impact o
● In order to beer understand the origins of geo-economics one has to look at the colonial history
from 17 century onwards. Since then, it has evolved but had mainly started off with European colonial
powers using military strengths in quest of resources and markets for their goods around the world
● many countries that have been following or had followed “mercanlist” policies and a prominent
example is that of China.
● In the post-Cold War era, “geopolics was driven by ideological rather than purely economic
factors”
● “the pursuit of power is as important as the pursuit of profit, with increasing state presence in
economies”.
● The emerging economies like India and China are acvely seeking new networks for trade – both
for security energy, and selling their goods – at regional levels. As it looks, it is not purely geo-economics
but also involves geopolics, as both countries use trade connecvity as tools to strengthen influence in
their neighborhoods that overlap too.³
● China's investment for trade corridor from the Gwadar Port is going to upscale geostrategic
relaons through geo-economic cooperaon.
● construcon of Gwadar Port is crucial for Pakistan's marime security in the Indian Ocean and
Arabian Sea
● the idea of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was the brainchild of Beijing, Pakistan had to
make that happen, especially aer 2001
● For Islamabad, China's investment in Gwadar is more than geo- economics – more about gaining
economic and polical fortunes of partnership with China for counterbalancing India's rising influence
● possibility of geo-economic and geo- strategic implicaons of China's economic investment
following operaonalizaon of the Gwadar Port
● China's foreign policy, especially with reference to relaons with developing countries, is enrely
different from that of the West because of being non-manipulave
● China has opted for an approach that emphasizes on creang a different kind of empire – different
from that of the colonial powers of the past by focusing on development in least developed and
developing countries
● China has invested billions of dollars towards infrastructural development in countries around the
world, such as Pakistan
● Beijing's aid policy is also the opposite of Western countries, but has been effecve in promong
China's economic and polical ambions
● It is mainly through aid to countries in Asia, Africa and South America that China has been able
to achieve diplomac successes vis-à- vis global polics
● For example, Beijing asked its allies to refrain from aending the Nobel Peace Prize awards
ceremony for dissident Liu Xiaobo. The response was very posive for China because over 19 countries,
including US allies Colombia and Egypt, joined the protest.⁹ This is troublesome for the US and its allies
who sll are dominang the development or donors' world.
● ​South China Sea Dispute
● There are divergent claims, some acve and some passive, over five countries' jurisdicon of South
China Sea. Five Southeast Asian countries, namely the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia
and Taiwan, are in dispute with China over the South China Sea. Five out of six, excluding Taiwan, are
members of the Associaon of Southeast Asian Naons (ASEAN) and have marime claims that overlap with
each other over the issue of South China Sea.
● There are contenous claims over the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Pratas Islands,
Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. China claims almost all of the area extending closer to
Indonesia. Beijing's claim is based on historical records of the Han (110AD) and Ming (1403- 1433AD)
Dynases. During the Ming Dynasty in the 15 century, Chinese Navy dominated South China Sea all the
way through the Indian Ocean to East Africa. Taiwan contests these claims but passively. Vietnam claims
the islands of Paracel (seized by China from Vietnam in 1974) and Spratly. The Philippines, Malaysia and
Brunei parally claim jurisdicon of other islands. Out of all the stakeholders, only Vietnam and the
Philippines have openly been challenging China's stance on South China Sea.
● South China Sea is crucial due to its significance in sea trade. It roughly covers an area of 1.4
million square miles in the Pacific Ocean from Singapore to Malacca Straits to the Straits of Taiwan, west
of the Philippines, north of Indonesia and east of Vietnam.
● $5.3 trillion worth of trade, including $1.2 trillion of the US, passes through the South China Sea
on annual basis.
● y half of the world's merchant fleet through the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok Straits with the
majority via the South China Sea.¹
● Japan and South Korea are heavily reliant on energy imports through this trade corridor.
● 15 million barrels of oil are transported daily through the Malacca Straits and South China Sea to
East Asia and this volume is more than three mes that of Suez Canal.
● Any disrupon in trade via the South China Sea is going to have economic and polical implicaons
for the US and its key partners
● On the issue of disputes between China and several countries claiming rights over South China
Sea, there are countries which are interested in India's involvement.
● New Delhi has been backing Manila's posion over its dispute with China on the South China Sea
● New Delhi had supported Manila's decision for approaching Permanent Court of Arbitraon against
Beijing in 2013.¹
● China had boycoed the proceedings in The Hague and rejected the decision. S
● India seems interested in exporng weapons, such as Brahmos (cruise missile), to the Philippines,
it has not threatened China's interests in South China Sea by sending any ship.
● Other than the Philippines, India has closer es with Vietnam that began in Indira Gandhi's me
● It is also important to noce that indirect stakeholders in the conflicts, like the US and Japan, want
India's parcipaon in Asia-Pacific rebalancing.
● realizaon in Washington and Tokyo that without India the new marime alliance will remain
incomplete
● joint naval exercise among India, Japan, and the US. Australia
● The intensity of the dispute connues to grow, not merely because it is at the heart of the
Asia-Pacific region, but also because it has significance beyond marime security due to being a
prominent trade corridor and energy rich
● ● It is esmated that the South China Sea has proven oil reserves of seven billion barrels
and esmated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
● Fish is a major source of protein for countries in conflict over the South China Sea. As of 2013,
one-tenth of the world's global fisheries catch was in this region and fish protein accounts for 22 percent
of Asian diet. I
● “had the issue remained strictly a territorial one, it could have been resolved through Chinese
efforts to reach out to ASEAN and forge stronger es with the region
● ​The US Factor
● Beyond the oen-publicized version of the US foreign policy that they are interested in South
China Sea out of their concern for freedom of navigaon, internaonal norms and law, there are also
geostrategic reasons due to which the US is engaged in direct confrontaon with China.
● For understanding the US' interest in South China Sea, we need to look into the US-China rivalry
in the contemporary context of Asia- Pacific
● US along with its partners in the Asia-Pacific and elsewhere, mainly through cooperaon in security and
trade, has been trying to decrease China's influence in the Asia- Pacific
● Much to Beijing's displeasure, the Obama Administraon has intensified its role in the Asia-Pacific.
This can also be a response to withdrawal of troops from Iraq and drawdown in Afghanistan. This new
strategy is called Obama Administraon's “rebalance” towards Asia for protecng its strategic interests
● The following are the key features of the Obama Administraon's “rebalance” policy towards
Asia:²² 1. Troop deployment to Australia and naval deployments to Singapore, and military cooperaon
with the Philippines 2. Strengthening of US' military presence in East Asia 3. Membership of the East Asia
Summit 4. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
● The above-menoned facets of the US' policy are assurances that were much needed and mely
for the US' key allies in the region who, during the previous Bush's Administraon, had felt being ignored
by Washington.
● Other than establishing a naval base in Darwin (Australia), the US has strengthened its military
es with the Philippines and Singapore. Membership of the East Asia Summit will offer just another forum
for the US to gang up with local players against the rise of China
● is important to menon that the Bush administraon had a completely different point of mullateral
iniaves in the Asia-Pacific; therefore, parcipaon on such forums was ignored. For example, Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice had missed two of the annual meengs of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF),
which is central to the work of ASEAN on regional security.²³ In contrast, the Obama administraon
decided on greater engagement and meaningful cooperaon with organizaons like ASEANand APEC
● Although the Obama Administraon claims this “rebalance” or “Pacific Pivot” to be a new angle in
the US' policy towards the Asia- Pacific, this is just an extension or transformaon of the United States'
long-term policy
● For example, a couple of other dimensions, like partnerships with India and TPP, are products of
iniaves taken by the previous government of President George W. Bush.²⁴ The term “pivot” was changed
by “rebalance” but that seems to have not changed the direcon of the approach in Washington.
● The Obama Administraon's “rebalance” policy is not merely a policy because many concrete
steps have been taken and achievements have been made by the US since its implementaon. --Hillary
Clinton made 36 official visits to East Asia and Pacific – double than her predecessor.² shows new vigor
rather than a mere change of direcon in any policy. During one of her visits to the Asia-Pacific, Clinton
said that, “Pacific is big enough for all of us
● S allies who have claims over the South China Sea surround China.
● There have been several occasions of diplomac hiccups between China and the US over the
issue of what Beijing views as violaon of its sovereignty by the US through its ships in the South China
Sea
● A recent example is that of when China declared illegal the movement of USS Lassen near
disputed Spratly archipelago in October 2015
● In the present scenario, China aims for increasing economic dependence of claimant countries
on China, keeping them out of any development in the disputed region, and avoiding open confrontaon
with the US
● blind followers of the US, for example Japan and Australia. These two countries are labeled as
not having independent foreign policies...trong defense cooperaon among Japan, the US and Australia
● The South China Sea is a major reason behind the military buildup in Asia. All claimants,
including China, are constantly increasing their military strengths
● In this arms race, the weaker pares are buying weapons from the US and other countries. For
example, Indonesia is buying 20 frigates from the Netherlands
● Major goals are to deter the US' naval deployment in the area and to protect crucial marime trade
routes for China
● d 80 percent of China's oil imports pass through the Indian Ocean and the Straits of
Malacca.China is building its naval capabilies to match that of the US. It has a naval aircra carrier, the Shi
Lang, and it is construcng a 50,000- 60,000 ton carrier and working on a nuclear powered carrier.³
● With increasing military capabilies in relevant countries, the growing naonalism in some countries
is increasing support for tougher soluons to the dispute
● As far as soluons are concerned, Beijing has no interest whatsoever in going for any other opon
than bilateral talks. On the other hand, oen Vietnam and the Philippines have approached the US and
ASEAN for intervenons
● Indonesia, a leading player in ASEAN, has also rejected China's stance that the US should not
become part of this dispute
● The US has strong geo-strategic interests in Asia and therefore connues to push for the soluon of
the dispute over South China Sea
● Chinese government for the first me appeared before the internaonal jusce system. The Tribunal
overruled China's claim over most of the South China Sea. It is said that this ruling may ignite the US-
China rivalry while also influencing other countries, such as Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and
Vietnam, having marime disputes with China.
● Beijing's response was an expected and read: “China does not accept or recognize it (judgment)
● As far as the judgment of the Tribunal is concerned, China was not the only one on the losing
side, as Taiwan's claim over the Spratly Islands was also rejected.³⁵ Beijing claims that the Tribunal
judgment is because of the US pressure, the country that has not signed the UNConvenon on the Law of
the Sea.³⁶ However, there is no doubt that the US has geo-economic and geo-polical interests in Asia
due to which it is going to keep supporng its key allies having claims over the South China Sea.
● ​It seems that the US' so--called transformed approach towards Asia--Pacific is full of
contradicons because whatever it has been doing is with the purpose of countering China.
● TPP is just another example, from which China has been intenonally le out. TPP is supposedly
the biggest trade deal that has been reached aer a decade of intensive negoaons among the US,
Canada, and ten countries of the Asia- Pacific region.³⁷ This is considered a “giant” agreement because
TPP countries are responsible for 40 percent of the world's GDP and 26 percent of the world's trade
● In addion, 40 percent of US' imports and exports will be governed under TPP
● Beijing is not disturbed by TPP because China already has bilateral trade agreements with almost
all of the TPP countries
● the US is pushing for its geo-economic and geo-polical objecves through TPP in the Asia Pacific,
China connues to give reality to its “One Belt-One Road (OBOR)” project in Asia.
● “since China is excluded from the TPP, one would expect antagonism rather than symbiosis
between the Washington-advocated trade package and Beijing's [OBOR] strategy

Pakistan in the US Strategic Calculus

● Pakistan and the US have enjoyed an uneven relaonship since the creaon of Pakistan. While
Pakistan did benefit from the US assistance to modernize its military and defence capabilies, the
percepons are varied due to diverging interests. Looking through an idealisc prism, Pakistan's hopes
were dampened on numerous occasions due to the US policy which is primarily conceived through realist
perspecve. Of late there is a realizaon that other regional and extra-regional players are also significant
and there is a need to establish durable relaons with other regional states and powers like, for example,
Russia, Turkey, Iran and Central Asian Republics as well. Connuaon of such policies would require
foresight, realizing the role and objecves of states seeking regional hegemony and idenfying the limits of
cooperaon with the US, which was ignored in the past
● Since its incepon, Pakistan has been confronted with a persistent security dilemma of a hosle
neighborhood. Indian hoslity on its Eastern front and an unstable and unfriendly Afghanistan towards the
West shaped Pakistan's security paradigm in which the military's role always remained significant
● Pakistan's ideological and bureaucrac preferences, coupled with the sense of insecurity, obliged it
to choose the United States (US) over a communist Soviet Union as a strategic balancer against India
amid an intensifying Cold War
● Washington, which always regarded India as a valuable regional partner. Consequently, despite
Indian inclinaon towards the Soviet Union, the US sll regarded an Indian role vital in containing the spread
of Communism
● The US has mostly ulized its fiscal leverage to promote its strategic interests in the region
somemes at the cost of Pakistan's naonal interests
● financial aid was rarely ulized efficiently due to governance issues and corrupon, which
consequently has done lile to redress widespread an-American senments among the masses.
● encouraging India to perceive its role of a regional hegemon perpetuang instability
● ​The Strategic Context
● Pakistan has mostly viewed its relaonship with the US through an idealisc prism. Considering US
as a mentor and protector against threats emanang across the eastern border from a much potent
adversary were misplaced and exaggerated
● On the contrary, the US, dominated by the realist approach, always used Pakistan as an
instrument, which could always be abandoned later, suing its strategic interests in the region
● Due to Pakistan's historical es with China, Pakistan has lile ulity for the US policy of containing
China's military and economic rise.
● India, which is aspiring for a defining role in global polics and for its compeve relaonship with
China, thus becomes valuable to serve as a fulcrum in US Asia Pivot policy
● However, this change in US priories sll does not make Pakistan redundant in the regional context
due to its geo-strategic locaon and status of a nuclear power.
● ​Brief Appraisal of Pak--US Relaons
● Pakistan's first Prime Minister, Liaqat Ali Khan, was the first Pakistani leader to set the course of
Pak-US relaons. He inially contacted USSR for a visit but subsequently travelled to Washington rather
than to Moscow in May 1950 on his first formal foreign visit.
● Ideological and bureaucrac preferences may have altered his decision regarding the visit
● During the inial years of independence, Indian hoslity coupled with the Kashmir issue shaped the
foreign policy choices of Pakistani decision makers. In a bid to secure protecve US shield against India,
● Pakistan sought these alliances as a defensive shield against a more powerful and larger
adversary, India, but contrary to this percepon, Washington never made any such commitment despite
India's visible inclinaon towards Moscow.
● Soviet overt support to India was visibly stronger than the US support to Pakistan over contenous
issues like Kashmir.
● USSR accepted the disputed region of Kashmir as an integral part of India, and also vetoed
numerous resoluons presented in Security Council on the status of Kashmir.⁶
● Pak-US defence es helped Pakistan to strengthen its defence against India, but the US support
to Pakistan at crical junctures and on crical polical issues mostly remained non-existent, be these the
wars of 1965 and 1971
● Pakistan always went out of its way to serve the US interests in the region, even somemes risking
direct confrontaon with global powers. The U-2 spy plane incident in 1960 is just a case in point which
almost brought Pakistan and Soviet Union to the verge of an armed conflict
● The misleading noon of US defending Pakistan probably strengthened in the aermath of the 1962
Sino-Indian border dispute during which the US openly sided with India against communist China
● Pakistani policy makers had ancipated the same level of US support for Pakistan against India,
which was never the case.
● Although India had proclaimed a “Non-aligned” status, it remained visibly pro-communist in its
orientaon
● all these hopes were dampened aer the Indo-Pak war of 1965 when the US imposed sancons on
Pakistan. Subsequently, in 1971, the Soviets openly sided with India but the US support for Pakistan was
completely non-existent, which resulted in the dismemberment of Pakistan's eastern wing and the creaon
of Bangladesh.
● ven aer 1971, Pakistani leaders connued to rely on the US thus serving its interests in the region
● s was illustrated by Pakistani mediaon between the US and China to facilitate President Nixon's
surprise visit to Beijing in 1972.⁸
● Realizing the fulity of SEATO, Pakistan finally withdrew from it in 1973.
● relaonship was further strained in 1977 when the US used its influence on France to cancel the
shipment of a nuclear reprocessing plant to Pakistan, fearing that Pakistan could use this plant to
manufacture nuclear weapons in response to the Indian 'not so' peaceful nuclear explosion of 1974.
● Aer the Iranian revoluon of 1979, Pakistan also le the CENTO considering it redundant
● The relaonship further deteriorated aer the US imposed sancons against Pakistan in 1979 over
suspected nuclear acvies.
● However, in the early 1980's aer the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the US reviewed its policy in
the region, selecng Pakistan as a strategic ally against growing Soviet influence
● This informal alliance lasted ll the Soviet disintegraon and, in 1990; the US lawmakers again
imposed sancons against Pakistan, which were parally relaxed to allow import of essenal military
hardware in 1995.
● Aer the nuclearizaon of South Asia in 1998, the US imposed across the board sancons against
Pakistan, and even India, thus terminang all sorts of military and civil cooperaon
● The fateful event of 9/11 changed the Pak-US equaon, and Pakistan once again became a
frontline state in the US' war against terrorism
● US always remained skepcal of Pakistan's intenons accusing it of playing a double game and
demanding to 'do more
● Pakistan, on the other hand, also viewed the US intenons with suspicion and distrust
● he raid on Osama bin Laden's compound in Abboabad and the deliberate US aerial strike on
Salala check post
● Pak-US relaons sll face an unpredictable future
● This is due to changing US priories in the region with the US trying to project India as a hegemon
in the region.
● The off-shore rebalancing posture of the US in the shape of Asia Pivot Policy and its unqualified
support/efforts to grant India the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership, projects India as a more
suitable partner in comparison to Pakistan
● ​Pakistan's Geo--Polical Imperaves
● The strategic importance of Pakistan has always kept it at the centre stage of global polics.
● ​1 Geographical Proximity: ​Pakistan's close proximity to the Middle East, Central Asia, South
East Asia, Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf makes it strategically a very important state in the region at
mes making it indispensable for the regional and world powers. clearly evident during the Cold War and,
more recently, in the case of Yemen's civil war in which Saudis and Iranians both were seeking Pakistani
support. China, Afghanistan and India, have remained crical for the polar powers.geo-strategic
significance of Pakistan holds some unique geo-polical dilemmas and opportunies at the same me which
are​ Role in Containment of Soviet Union during the Cold War: ​ Pakistan provided the US with bases
to conduct surveillance and intelligence operaons against Soviet targets, The support to militant groups
parcipang in the Afghan war , gradually transformed the complete social fabric of Pakistani society.The
Cold War alliance enabled Pakistan to strengthen and modernize its military alongside running a
clandesne nuclear weapons program in response to Indian aggressive designs.
● ​Shortest Route to Central Asian Energy Resources: ​shortest and easiest route for China and
Central Asian Republics (CARs) to trade through Gwadar, This route passing through Afghanistan is
approximately 2600 kilometers long whereas the Iranian and Turkish routes are much longer with
distances of 4500 and 5000 kilometers respecvely. Pakistan's locaon in the middle of regional economic
giants, namely India and China,¹⁵ thus holds immense prospects of becoming a 'Trade and Economic
Corridor' by developing itself into a transitory zone and subsequently associang itself with other economic
and financial organizaons like CARs, SCO (Shanghai Cooperaon Organizaon), BRICS (Brazil,
● ​A Gateway to the Persian Gulf: ​Pakistan's Gwadar port dominates the narrow opening of the
Persian Gulf which is the world's busiest oil supplying corridor and has since become a concern for the
Indian regional ambions. Amid the US policy of re-posturing in Asia Pacific, Gwadar Port is being seen by
China as an important strategic locaon alongside other ports in South East Asia. will enable China to
significantly improve its strategic posture vis-à- vis US in the region, with what the US describes as
China's new 'String of Pearls' strategy. Pakistan, in future conflicts, can use also Gwadar port to block
Indian supply of oil from Persian Gulf in response to an Indian aempt of naval blockade.
● ​Important Player in South Asia: ​ The key to prosperity in South Asia largely depends on
Indo-Pak mutually shared relaons due to their size and populaon., Unfortunately, so far the lukewarm
relaons between the two big nuclear rivals have hampered any prospects of regional cooperaon and
economic integraon
● ​Human Resource Potenals:​​ Pakistan is the second most populous country in South Asia aer
India and fourth on the Asian connent with immense human resource potenal.²¹ Although the current
trajectory of populaon growth in Pakistan is cited as a major impediment to development and economic
growth, primarily this economic stagnaon should be blamed on governance issues and failure to effecvely
ulize this resource potenal by successive governments rather than aributed to populaon alone.
● ​Nuclear Flash Point:
● ​Afghan Neighborhood: The Graveyard of Empires
● ⁴ In the 19th century, Britain and Russia engaged in the 'Great Game,' thus venturing to establish
their hegemony over Asian Rim land, but failed to control Afghanistan.²
● Currently, the US is fighng its longest war of US history in Afghanistan
● spillover of this war has affected the enre Middle East, and the situaon in Afghanistan sll remains
in peril.
● Due to geographical proximity Pakistan has again become a crical factor in finding a meaningful
and durable soluon for Afghanistan's stability as and when US withdraws from Afghanistan
● ​Ideological Significance
● ​Discuss pakistan issues and then: ​ Despite these factors, Pakistan sll maintains its stature of
an influenal state within the states of the Islamic community
● Aer the fateful event of September 11, 2001,²⁹ and the historic U-turn by Pakistani government
over Afghan policy amid the US pressure, these militant groups refused to disarm. But despite these
challenges Pakistan sll enjoys strong influence within the Muslim world.
● ​Nuclear Weapons Capability.
● possess nuclear weapons capability, discriminately termed as “The Islamic Bomb
● This preferenal treatment is now posing a serious threat to regional stability especially aer signing
of the Indo- US nuclear deal.
● ​Pakistan and US Strategic Goals in the Region
● ​US Strategic Objecves in the Region: Defeang Islamic Militancy
● Tyrannical and autocrac rulers, who mostly enjoyed western support,³⁴ used harsh techniques
against the dissident groups and dissasfied youth, thus pushing them towards radicalism which
enormously contributed in terrorism
● These groups have now mutated into a structure carrying vicious hate for western values and an
extremely intolerant view for anyone who disagrees with their ideology
● ​Ending Wars in Greater Middle Eastern Region
● Aer fighng the longest war in its history, the US is now suffering from an imperial fague. This
fague is reflected from its waning influence and reluctance to deploy ground troops in large numbers in
Syria.
● American announcement to end the war in Iraq without achieving anything tangible and
subsequent intenons to pull out from Afghanistan, leaving behind token forces for support missions,
indicate that the US government remains wary of the economic consequences of these wars
● ​Dominang the Asia Pacific Region:
● The US focus is gradually shiing to the Asia-Pacific region mainly for two reasons. First it wants
to project its power to counter the rising China phenomenon, econd, the Asia-Pacific region offers a
lucrave market to the US manufacturing industry, The US also sees the rising Japan-China tensions over
Senkaku Islands an opportunity to keep its hold over the region and is thus pung its weight behind
Japan.⁴⁰
● ​Containment of China
● The US envisages an Asia of high economic and geo-strategic value in which China is seen as a
strategic challenger posing a threat to its interests. Containment of China in the region thus has become
top most priority for the US policy makers,
● The US endeavors to promote India as a strategic balancer to China by enhancing its military,
diplomac and economic stature in the region.
● ​Pushing the “Asia Pivot” Strategy
● Shiing of the economic centre to Asia-Pacific is anxiously being watched by the US which is thus
rebalancing itself according to this emerging reality.
● ​Securing Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons
● ​Maintaining a Controlled Level of Instability in the Region
● No unanimity exists between scholars regarding real US policy objecves when it comes to
establishing peace and stability in South Asia. Two hypotheses dominate the discourse.
● The first hypothesis posits that a divided and relavely unstable South Asia best serves US
interests,⁴⁹ because it provides the US with an opportunity to maintain its influence and presence in the
region besides profing through sale of military hardware to both India and Pakistan. strikes in Pakistan,
thus killing the militant commanders inclined towards negoaons, is cited as a raonal acon..
● The other viewpoint argues that regional stability remains a topmost priority for the US for it
provides ideal strategic and economic opportunies for US' businesses and industry to invest in the region.
stability would also reduce the risks of nuclear escalaon between India and Pakistan thus paving the way
for economic prosperity
● ​Controlling the Energy Resources
● energy resources in Middle East and Central Asia
● Military deployments and bases in the Middle East and subsequent invasion of Iraq were aimed
at aaining physical control over these resources
● he military bases in the Gulf States, Afghanistan, South East Asia and Europe sll provide
assurance to the US for exercising control over these regions
● The emergence of new polar powers poses a daunng challenge for the US to establish its hold on
Central Asian and Middle Eastern energy resources
● ​Pakistan's Core Interests in the Region
● Pakistan persistently faces a geo-strategic dilemma due to its locaon in the region.⁵⁷ Its
involvement in the 'Afghan Jihad' during the Cold War and its alliance with the US in the war against
terrorism resulted in various predicaments (alongside a few benefits) due to high socio-economic cost
and subsequent security problems. Pakistan's informal alliance with the US was aimed at achieving
following strategic objecves in the region:
● ​1. Avoiding a 'Two Front War' Scenario
● Pakistan is relavely a smaller country than India with regards to strength, size and economy. Due
to its linear shape and hosle neighborhood, a 'two front war' becomes a doomsday scenario for Pakistan.
Owing to its historical hoslity with India, Pakistan desperately needs stable and friendly neighbors in the
west which could thus provide strategic depth in mes of war.⁵ ⁹ Pakistan's quest for a stable and friendly
western theatre implies that Afghanistan and Iran should have deep rooted economic and strategic
interests in Pakistan, which resultantly could get adversely affected if Pakistan faces a war like situaon on
its eastern border. This could thus necessitate the western neighborhood to support Pakistan in such a
scenario. Pakistan seeks peace with India but, without the resoluon of Kashmir dispute peace would
remain an elusive term under the prevailing circumstances
● ​2. Strategic Ties with China
● Pakistan and China enjoy historical es over unique commonality of interests. Although, Pakistan
is considerably dependent on Chinese military and economic assistance, this relaonship is not one sided
● Pak-China joint research ventures have produced some state-of-the-art technologies
● Producon of fighter aircras, tanks, energy projects, road and railway infrastructure and naval ports
etc. are illustrave of this development
● US strategic interests resultantly bringing China and Pakistan further closer and
● Pakistan's offer to China for developing the Gwadar Port and Chinese investment in CPEC
(China Pakistan Economic Corridor) is reflecve of this reality.⁶²
● ​3. Maintaining a Credible Nuclear Deterrence.
● Pakistan faces an existenal threat from India since its incepon. Since 1947, India has been in a
process of gradually occupying territories principally belonging to Pakistan notably Kashmir, Junagadh,
Manavadar, Run- of-Kutch and Siachen.⁶
● Due to financial constraints Pakistan cannot afford to engage in a convenonal arms race with
India, which is connuously modernizing its armed forces at a rapid pace. Thus a cost effecve opon of
maintaining a credible nuclear deterrence, premised on the principle of minimalism, acquires a crical role
in Pakistan's security paradigm to deter the possibility of Indian convenonal aggression.
● ​4. Maintaining Defence Ties with the US.
● Pakistan had mostly considered the US as a strategic balancer vis-à-vis India, and did benefit
from the US military technology from me to me
● Perceptions changed
● ​5.Defeang Terrorism
● During the Soviet-Afghan war, CIA and Pakistan trained and armed Pakistani, Arab and Afghan
militants to take part in the war. However, aer 9/11 when Pakistan hesitantly joined the US-led War on
Terror, there was a severe backlash, and Pakistan got engulfed in a serious internal security situaon
● ​6.Resisng Indian Hegemony in the Region
● ​7.Economic Prosperity.
● ​8.Preserving Ideological Foundaons
● ​Contending Issues between Pakistan and the US.
● ​Having analyzed the US and Pakistani priories, the diverging issues between Pakistan and
the US can be enumerated as below:
● The US sees China as a rising threat and is seeking to contain Chinese influence in the region.
Projecng India as a new regional power centre and deployment of forces under the umbrella of off- shore
balancing in Asia-Pacific, are new strategic iniaves by the US aimed at containing China. Pakistan being
a strategic partner of China cannot become part of this new US game plan. The Chinese involvement in
the development of Gwadar port is also seen as a response to the US 'containment of China' policy.
● Pakistan faces a connuous dilemma in Afghanistan. Its efforts to bring the Taliban on to the
negoaon table have not yielded desired results due to mulple reasons.⁷⁴ On one hand the presence of the
US forces in Afghanistan fuels insurgency while on the other hand the pull-out of the US troops would
have spillover effects inside Pakistan
● Pakistan considers Indian hegemonic regional ambions as posing an explicit threat to its naonal
security. Any support to India by western states (including the US) in nuclear or convenonal area, thus by
default becomes a serious challenge for Pakistan. US' growing cooperaon with India, in nuclear, missile
an…..
● ​Pakistan's Future Policy Trends
● Although Pakistan's strategic salience in the new US policy for the region would be secondary to
that of India, yet Pakistan is not likely to become enrely irrelevant for the US in future. New trends in
Pakistan's naonal policy involve:
● 1. Further strengthening of strategic partnership with China especially in the economic and
defence fields. CPEC and development of Gwadar Port is an extremely valuable project which illustrates
the growing partnership between both the states. Iran, Afghanistan and even India should also be invited
to invest in the CPEC project to make the region the hub of economic and trade acvies
● An endeavor to improve trade relaons with Iran while balancing the policy inclinaon towards
Saudi Arabia.⁷⁶ Compleng the Iran- Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project, which is already in the
process, would significantly improve relaons with Iran in addion to help in overcoming the energy crisis in
Pakistan
● Crical re-evaluaon of policy towards the Gulf States (especially Saudi Arabia) which now involves
a more cauous approach for striking a balance between reality and percepon. Pakistan was also inclined
to play an important role in bridging the gap between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which although it did not
yield desired results yet the efforts need to connue in future as well. Re-evaluaon of old es with Russia
with the purpose of improving the exisng relaonship to explore possibilies of establishing joint defence
and energy projects and considering possibility of technology transfers.⁷⁷ However, such a policy would
mandate a strong economic base and fiscal space for purchase of Russian technology. Such transfers
could be compensated by offering Russian companies to invest in Pakistan like for example iniang the
TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project, expansion of steel mills etc.
Russian companies have already shown an interest in the TAPI energy project. Pakistan was extremely
opmisc to play a pivotal role in negoaons between Taliban and Afghan government on US instance.
However, the negoaons could not progress due to Pakistan's incoherent Afghan policy which alienated
and subsequently divided the Taliban into several groups. This scenario has encouraged India to use
Afghanistan as a base to support insurgency on Pakistan's western front by employing rebellious Taliban
and Baluch facons. Pakistan's sole reliance on military could keep the tribal belt along the Afghan border
in a connuous state of peril in future as well. Therefore, a re-evaluaon of policy towards Afghanistan
seems imperave, and there is a need to incorporate Afghanistan in energy and economic acvies for a
durable relaonship. Pakistan's economic reliance on the US is unsustainable. As the US inclines towards
India, the volume of financial aid would dwindle. Maintaining a pragmac relaonship with the US, based on
reciprocity without compromising on core Pakistani policy objecves, has so far remained an unfulfilled
dream but needs to be adopted by Pakistani, policymakers. Despite the US lt towards India, the US is
likely to connue using a 'sck and carrot' policy towards Pakistan by asking it to 'do more' for
accomplishing US policy objecves. Trading tangible benefits in quid-pro-quo manner must never be lost
sight of. Damaging one's own naonal interest at the cost of serving US objecves must be avoided at all
costs. US limited engagement with Pakistan is likely to connue due to the risks of nuclear confrontaon in
South Asia.
Prospects of India's inclusion in the NSG and options for Pakistan
● With the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) plenary meeng held in Seoul on June 23-24, 2016, debate
on the possible inclusion of non-NPT states has gained momentum, with some opposing the
membership, while others suggesng criteria to accommodate non-NPT signatories into the NSG fold.¹
India and Pakistan have formally applied, while Israel is sll contemplang, mindful of being le outside the
mainstream non-proliferaon regime while other states with similar credenals are brought in. If India alone
is allowed to become a member of the NSG while Pakistan remains outside, this would not only
undermine global non-proliferaon norms but cause countries to queson the value of engaging with the
non- proliferaon regime. It is ironic at the same me since it was India whose 1974 nuclear test led to the
creaon of the NSG previously called London Suppliers Group. The basic purpose of the NSG is to provide
a mechanism through which the non-proliferaon goal could be achieved, but in the present scenario some
of the group members are unanimously supporng a proliferator (India) to be member. The special favors
to India are being given in the Grossi-Song nine points formula presented aer the extraordinary meeng of
the NSG PGs on December 6, 2016 because of the United States' strategic partnership with India. Given
its discriminatory agenda favoring India the formula did not go through but ironically, 2016 became
remarkable for Group's future outlook and credibility.
● India and Pakistan might encounter tough resistance in geng the membership of NSG in the near
future.
● Many members of the Group seem determined to thwart non-NPT states aempt to join the Group
without a criteria-based approach.
● Pakistan sent the formal applicaon for NSG membership just a week aer the Indian applicaon on
June 9, 2016.²
● it is emphasized to adopt a criteria-based approach than going for a country specific membership
that favors India. It should be non-discriminatory and equally applicable to all non-NPT states.
● On the other hand, India's membership in NSG carries not merely defense related implicaons
rather it has polical dimensions as well.
● fulfill India's needs regarding nuclear materials and technology but will also enable India to forge
strong internaonal support against Pakistan on various disputes
● ​Need for mullateral export control regimes
● Since the nuclear age and parcularly aer the use of nuclear weapons in 1945, the dominant
powers of the world have craed treaes and regimes to maintain a check on spread of nuclear technology
● One of the fundamental strands of the Global Nuclear Order is enforcement of rules related to
nuclear technology and material commerce. Currently there are four Mullateral Export Control Regimes:
MTCR, NSG, Warrsaner Arrangement and Australia Group. Among all NSGseeks to strengthen nuclear
order through strategic trade controls.
● ​Reason behind NSG formaon
● May 18, 1974, peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE), named as 'Smiling Buddha' .. India violated its
pledge to use the Canadian-supplied CIRUS research reactor spent-fuel for making plutonium. It has a
history of illicit nuclear procurement and inadequate nuclear export controls, and connues to produce
fissile material for weapons and to expand its nuclear weapons and missile capabilies more generally
● Thus the Indian violaon of peaceful nuclear use resulted in adopon of stringent measures by all
the nuclear states to prevent the horizontal proliferaon
● As a consequence, the preliminary objecve of the NSG was to impede its members from assisng
India in making nuclear weapons. It has expanded over four decades from 7 to 48 nuclear supplier
countries as its members.
● two predominant defined objecves, the first goal is to get all supplier states to adhere to the
guidelines; and the second is to reinforce good non-proliferaon behavior.
● ​Membership and Administrave Procedures
● The member states have agreed that the decision making process of NSG is by consensus along
with having equal vong right. Therefore, there is no chance of granng membership to any prospecve state
without consensus of all the exisng member states.⁸
● two set of guidelines,
● Guidelines for nuclear Transfers (INFCIRC/254, Part 1). Since Zangger Commiee was already
working on nuclear safe transfers, NSG took forward its aim and agreed on a set of Guidelines
incorporang a trigger list. These were published in 1978 as Internaonal Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Document INFCIRC/254 (subsequently amended) to apply to Nuclear Transfers published in 1978 by
IAEA for peaceful purposes to help ensure that such transfers would not be diverted to an unsafeguarded
nuclear fuel cycle or nuclear explosive acvies.⁹ The items on the trigger list are as flashed: Nuclear
reactors and their equipment; non-Nuclear material for reactor; plants and equipment for reprocessing;
plants and equipment for fabricaon of nuclear fuel elements; plants and equipment for separaon of
isotopes; plants for heavy water producon; plants and equipment for conversion.¹⁰ Guidelines for
transfers of nuclear related dual use equipment, materials, soware and related technology,
(INFCIRC/254, Part 2).¹¹ In 1992, NSG decided to establish Guidelines for transfers of nuclear-related
dual-use equipment, material and technology, which could make a significant contribuon to migate the
misuse of unsafeguarded nuclear fuel cycle or nuclear explosive acvity.¹² The items on the trigger list are
as flashed: Industrial equipment and Materials; Uranium isotope separaon equipment and components;
Heavy water producon plant related equipment; Test and measurement equipment for the development of
nuclear explosive devices; Components for nuclear explosive devices.¹
● Till 1990 or the end of the Cold War, the NSG did not have any fixed criteria for its membership.
The need of adopng a criteria for inducon of states was first deliberated in the first ever formal plenary
meeng in 1992 held in Warsaw.¹⁴ following guidelines
● Membership of the Nuclear-Suppliers Group inially consists of the countries adhering to the
Nuclear Supplier Guidelines (INFCIRC/254/Rev. 1, Part 1 and 2) and fully parcipang in the Plenary
Meeng in Lucerne in 1993.
● Countries other than those referred to in paragraph 1 (a) may be invited to join the NSG by a
consensus decision of its members. Consensus may be achieved inter-sessionally by the Chair through
regular channels.
● The NSG members had made the criteria further stringent for new members during their May
10-11, 2001 Aspen, Colorado, United States Plenary meeng.¹
● To be eligible to become a new NSG Parcipang Government, a government must have adhered
to the Guidelines for the Export of Nuclear Material, Equipment and Technology, and the Guidelines for
Transfers of Nuclear Related Dual-Use Equipment, Materials, Soware and Related Technology. Such
adherence is accomplished by sending an official communicaon to the Director-General of the IAEA
stang that the government will act in accordance with the Guidelines. This communicaon is to be intended
for publicaon in the INFCIRC series.”¹
● The applicant should ensure enforcement of a legally based domesc export control system which
gives effect to the commitment to act in accordance with the Guidelines;
● The NSG aspirant express adherence to one or more of the NPT, the Treaes of Pelindaba,
Rarotonga, Tlatelolco, Bangkok, Semipalansk or an equivalent internaonal nuclear non- proliferaon
agreement, and full compliance with the obligaons of such agreement(s); and The applying state supports
internaonal efforts towards non- proliferaon of Weapons of Mass Destrucon and of their delivery
vehicles.²
● ​Non--Proliferaon Regime and the West
● Currently, NSG seems to have increased its credibility much more by making sure that its
members would follow the strict guidelines by not exporng the nuclear related technology to both nuclear
and non-nuclear weapons st a t e s i f t h e y a r e s u r e t h a t t h e s e n u c l e a r r e l a t e d
items/technology/materials could be diverted for nuclear weapons program
● NSG confronts crical issues with regard to its long lasng efforts for meeng the principles of
non-proliferaon, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear technology
● US and India have concluded a strategic partnership in economic, polical and military domains.
The US is encouraging the buildup of the Indian military and is conniving On the nuclearizaon of the
Indian Ocean
● Since the US is having defense and nuclear cooperaon deals with India, it has been the main
force behind Delhi's NSG bid here
● Such a major paradigm shi in the US policy is the manifestaon of the 'Realist Strategic Thinking'
in the US. The US 'Realism' is focused on 'Countering China Policy'. Whereas, China's acve role in
denying NSG membership to India is a 'Chinese Realism' response to the 'US Realism' regarding its
strategic interests in the region. China's opposion to India's membership in NSG is part of its strategic
interests including relaonship with Pakistan. However, Chinese support to Pakistan's stance should not
be taken for granted
● The fact should not be denied that China is the largest trading partner of India. China's trade
volume with India itself may provide leverage to India for geng Chinese nod for entry into NSG. Although
the US support to India aims at countering China but there are lile chances of confrontaon like that of
Cold War between China and the United States
● ​Candidacy of India and Pakistan
● The nature and character of the non-proliferaon regime (NPR) has been altered from its innovave
status due to the P5 nuclear weapon states (NWS), especially the United States' discriminatory use of the
Western led NPR as an instrument to pursue its own foreign and strategic policy objecves such as the
Indo-US Nuclear Deal. India is being propped up as a 'pivot' in the Asia Pacific strategy of the US.²⁵ It has
already been analyzed above that its aim is to assist India to become a rival great-power to China.
Therefore, it is now being heccally supported to become a full member of the Nuclear Supplier Group
(NSG)
● ​If India is included in the NSG
● India's applicaon could not acknowledge a confirmatory response from a few members of the
Group, yet it leaves the impression that New Delhi is determined to try for the full membership of NSG
● if India is brought into the NSG and Pakistan is le out, it would be another act of discriminaon
based on short-sighted commercial and strategic interests. India has not fulfilled its major commitments
given to the United States as part of the 2005 civil nuclear deal such as working for the conclusion of the
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty.
● ​Pakistan's bid
● Though Pakistan's ongoing polical and diplomac efforts are intended to create space for itself in
the NSG, it does qualify for civil nuclear trade in legal terms
● Even though Pakistan wishes to be included in the NSG cartel on the basis of merit, it also wants
to draw aenon to the issue of discriminaon regarding group's membership.³⁷ India is being treated on
favorable terms, with laws amended and waivers granted to accommodate it.³Even though Pakistan
wishes to be included in the NSG cartel on the basis of merit, it also wants to draw aenon to the issue of
discriminaon regarding group's membership.³⁷ India is being treated on favorable terms, with laws
amended and waivers granted to accommodate it.³
● ​Opons for Pakistan
● In view of the strong opposion from several countries, it is likely that both India and Pakistan may
not be accepted into the NSG in the immediate future. The year 2016 counts two meengs that went off
without reaching to any certain point in this regard. However, if the United States once again coerces the
NSG parcipang governments, as it did in 2008, Pakistan would not have any choice but to review its
engagement with the internaonal nonproliferaon regime, which is increasingly becoming a tool to serve
only the interests of major powers
● As a responsible nuclear state and a country in dire need of nuclear technology to meet its
growing energy needs, Pakistan should remain construcvely engaged with the global nonproliferaon
regime, so that along with China, it could qualify for civil trade with other states also. Nevertheless, this
relaonship cannot be based on unilateral commitments and obligaons;
● Aer the India-specific NSG exempon in 2008, India reportedly began a massive expansion of its
nuclear program, including military facilies.Pakistan should connue to take measures to ensure that
strategic stability is maintained, without geng into an arms race;⁴³
● The other opon for Pakistan could be to start a diplomac campaign to convince the NSG
members of its needs and capabilies, and simultaneously highlight India's non-adherence of the promises
made as part of the nuclear deal with the United States;
● Pakistan should connue nuclear cooperaon with China, while also focusing on economic
development to aract other nuclear vendors to explore commercial benefits in the country; and Pakistan
should engage China through such incenves that could contribute to sustain Chinese support for
Pakistan;
● Pakistan should connue to refuse to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferaon Treaty (NPT) and the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) unless India signs it first for ensuring regional security;
● Pakistan should not give in to Western "double standards", and keep calling for an unbiased
criteria-based approach for inclusion into the NSGgroup
● ​Pakistan should put its own house in order and project itself as one of the largest
countries of the world having great investment incenves for the internaonal community. Catering
support for Pakistan should not only be focused on barring India from the membership but should
also aim at catering support for Pakistan's entry into the club. Pakistan needs to adopt 'Proacve
Diplomacy' rather than 'Reacve Diplomacy';
● Last but not the least, Pakistan can wait for a more appropriate me to secure membership, while
it connues to support internaonal non-proliferaon efforts.
● ​Time slot to work in:
● First is the me slot ll the next plenary meeng of NSG; this me should be capitalized in promong
Pakistan's prospects regarding NSG membership through proacve diplomac and polical iniaves for
support across the 48 NSGnaons
● Second window of opportunity comes in the backdrop of slow- pace developments in Indo-US
nuclear cooperaon. Pakistan has sufficient me to strengthen its polico-economic engagement with the
rest of the world in general and with China in parcular ll the India-US nuclear deal gets further
materialized.⁴
● ​Grossi--Song formula
● Since the June 2016 Plenary failed to lay down criteria for NSG membership, China took a
principled posion that there should be criteria-based approach for NSG membership aspirant countries.
● However, the stalemate connued during the extraordinary NSG's consultave meeng in November
at Vienna, except that only China came out with a two point approach for inclusion of non-NPT states into
the NSG, i.e., to find out a soluon that is applicable to all the applicants who are not signatory to the NPT,
with the process of consultaons and then discuss the specific applicaon of relevant non-NPT country
● Previously, at the June plenary, NSG Chair was tasked to come up with a transparent consultaon
process with all the PGs to agree on a criteria without being inclined in India's favor.
● An outcome of this is the revised version of a dra 'Exchange of Notes' for Non-NPT applicants
outlined by the former NSG Chair, Ambassador Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argenna and the current Chair,
Ambassador Song Young-wan of South Korea on December 6, 2016.⁴
● It is a nine point commitment, which not only gives special favor to India but at the same me is
harming Pakistan's case for the NSG membership
● the same me is harming Pakistan's case for the NSG membership. The Grossi-Song formula did
not even consult China and many other divergent PGs including Turkey, New Zealand, Brazil, Ireland,
Austria, Belarus, Italy and Switzerland. Even Russia apprehended the criteria calling for more
consultaons among the PGs and greater transparency in procedural aspects.⁴
● Though the Grossi proposal did not break the logjam in the process of NSG membership process,
its condions have nothing new to make India bound of. For instance, Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control
Associaon points out “this formula would not require India to take any addional non-proliferaon
commitments beyond the steps to which it consented in September 2008” as a result of India-US nuclear
trade exempons.⁴⁹ Likewise he said: “any further country specific exempon from NSG guidelines for trade
and/or membership without compensang steps to strengthen non-proliferaon and disarmament would
increase nuclear dangers in South Asia, and weaken the NSG and the broader nuclear non-proliferaon
regime”.⁵⁰
● ​Question of Credibility for NSG
● Despite of successfully expanding its members the non- proliferaon regime itself and the NSG
has too many escape boards. For instance, previously the NPR could not halt India's nuclear weapons
test, neither in 1974 nor of 1998 tests. Likewise, the Indo-US so-called civil nuclear deal followed by the
NSG waiver to India is taken as a crical maer of concern when one discusses credibility of the NSG. It is a
well known fact that India has not agreed to the comprehensive safeguards in its claim to of following the
IAEA's addional protocol.⁵² The credibility of the NPR and NSG would be quesoned once again when
India would carry out more NWS test aer geng the membership. The NSG PGs supporng India's
candidature failed to influence China and France to rafy the NPT in the early years of its creaon. Both the
states joined the Treaty in 1992.⁵
● Last but not the least; in order to sustain the norms and credibility of these mul-lateral export
groups of nuclear non-proliferaon regime, the non-proliferaon regime itself needs to promote the ideals of
strategic restrain regime and avoidance of nuclear war
● ​Recommendaons for the NSG
● There could be a possibility that the NPT may recognize both India and Pakistan as nuclear
weapons states before they think of joining the NPT. With the passage of me, the NSG and NPT could
eventually recognize these nuclear weapons states with the ulmate move to strengthen the
non-proliferaon regime in the interim only, if India and Pakistan administer their nuclear weapons program
more responsibly.
● Owing to the fact that with the current NSG guidelines, there is no prospect of India and Pakistan
joining the group so, to revise the NSG guidelines by creang a lile flexibility could be recommended here.
It may allow the two nuclear weapons states entry to NSG while remaining outside the NPT, but of course
agreeing to internaonal treaes and safety convenons.

Nuclear Terrorism: A Potential Threat to World's Peace and Security

● Since 9/11, there is a great concern in the internaonal community about the potenal nuclear terror
aacks by the terrorist organizaons in the major cies of the world. The quest of the terrorist organizaons
like Al Qaeda and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to get access, seize, or steal the nuclear weapons
and nuclear material either to inflict heavy damages to human lives or to disperse the radioacvity in the
environment using a 'dirty bomb' further strengthens this concern which can pose a great threat to the
security and peace of the world. This paper analyzes the potenal threat of nuclear terrorism, the scenarios
regarding the acquision of the nuclear weapons or nuclear material, nuclear terrorism as myth or reality,
consequences and response to nuclear terrorism, Al-Qaeda's and ISIS quest for nuclear weapon and
nuclear material acquision for nuclear terrorism, and internaonal measures to eliminate the threat of
nuclear terrorism so far.
● Nuclear terrorism refers to the prospecve use of nuclear weapons containing fissile material by
terrorists. Nuclear terrorism also denotes the aack of terrorists to sabotage a nuclear facility, destroy a
nuclear facility to create massive radiology or consumpon of nuclear fissile material using convenonal
explosives generally termed as “Dirty Bomb” which is also termed as 'Radiological Terrorism
● According to the United Naons' Internaonal Convenon on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear
Terrorism (2005),
● “Nuclear Terrorism is an offense commied if any person commits an offence within the meaning
of this Convenon if that person unlawfully and intenonally: (a) Possesses radioacve material or makes or
possesses a device: (i) With the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury; or (ii) With the intent to
cause substanal damage to property or the environment; (b) Uses in any way radioacve material or a
device, or uses or damages a nuclear facility in a manner which releases or risks the release of radioacve
material: (i) With the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury; or (ii) With the intent to cause
substanal damage to property or the environment; or (iii) With the intent to compel a natural or legal
person, an internaonal organizaon or a State to do or refrain from doing an act”.
● ​Acquision of Nuclear Weapons by Terrorists
● The terrorist organizaons around the world have different polical, ideological, ethnic and naonalist
associaons. They seek to gain the aenon of the people through devastang aacks without losing their base
of support.
● According to Brain Jenkins, “Terrorists wants lots of people watching, not lots of people dead”.⁴
Therefore, terrorist organizaons like Al-Qaeda and ISIS are determined to acquire the most devastang
weapon system in the world for the purpose of terrorism to create terror in the minds of people around the
world.
● There are four different scenarios following which a terrorist organizaon could aempt to acquire a
nuclear weapon.
● In the first and unrealisc hypothecal scenario, the terrorist organizaon could aempt to develop the
fissile material enrichment facilies to develop highly enriched uranium for the manufacture of a nuclear
weapon by geng the services of disgruntled nuclear sciensts from Russia.
● a rogue naon, like any of the former Russian States having fissile material stockpiles or a country
like North Korea having capability of nuclear weapons, can sponsor a terrorist organizaon by selling a
nuclear weapon to earn legimate money⁷ and/or to serve its clandesne objecves. It may be the easiest
way for terrorist organizaons to acquire nuclear weapons
● third possible scenario could be that the terrorist organizaon acquires a nuclear weapon through the
either from the US or Russia as both countries have assembled nuclear weapons. But sll there are
various challenges for terrorist organizaons to handle the nuclear weapon and overcome the security
features such as incorporang the proper code.
● Lastly, there is a growing concern that terrorists can steal fissile material from a civilian or military
facility or purchase it from the nuclear black market to develop an improvised nuclear device
● ​Nuclear Terrorism: A Myth?
● If we focus on nuclear terrorism as a myth, it reveals that the technological impediments and
sophiscaons involved in the process of enrichment forced various states to revert their nuclear weapon
projects
● As far as the technicalies and sophiscaons involved in the producon of fissile material for the
weapons are concerned, it seems impossible for a terrorist organizaon to develop a nuclear facility for the
enrichment of fissile material
● Moreover, it is very difficult for a terrorist organizaon to manufacture and design a nuclear device
in case of availability of enough fissile material for a weapon. On the other hand, it is a very difficult
process to design and assemble a reliable nuclear device and nuclear warhead.
● Nuclear weapon technology is so expensive and sophiscated that countries who consider it as
essenal for their survival have to pay an extreme cost and go through a great deal of trouble in acquiring it
● nuclear sciensts have a consensus that the development of a crude nuclear weapon by terrorist
organizaons seems impossible due to certain scienfic technicalies
● if a state lacks the capability to acquire proficiency in nuclear knowhow and to develop or connue
its nuclear weapon program without internaonal assistance, then how can a non-state terrorist organizaon
achieve the milestone of nuclear weapon research and development by itself
● “We are fortunate that those with the clearest intent to acquire and use weapons of mass
destrucon are also the least capable of developing them”
● ​Nuclear Terrorism: A Reality?
● The incapability of terrorists to enrich fissile material or weapon development cannot overshadow
the threat of nuclear terrorism if we see through the prism of reality
● The possibility of nuclear terrorism cannot be eliminated due to the incapability of terrorist
organizaons to engineer fissile material.
● There is a need to properly analyze terrorist ambions that have a desire to acquire weapons of
mass destrucon, including nuclear,
● Though the use of weapons of mass destrucon (especially the nuclear weapons) is relavely less
probable, but sll there is a great concern of usage of such destrucve weapons by terrorists like Al-Qaeda
and its affiliates due to their mindset and philosophy. When it comes to nuclear terrorism, Al-Qaeda is the
most acve parcipant among the terrorist organizaons to go nuclear
● ​Al--Qaeda: Striving to go Nuclear
● Al-Qaeda, aer its emergence, found the US as its future target. Osama bin Laden, along with
Ayman al-Zawahri, showed their interest in acquiring the weapons of mass destrucon.¹
● For this purpose, Ayman al-Zawahri extensively travelled to Russia, Yemen, Malaysia,
Singapore and China hunng for the Weapons of Mass Destrucon¹
● In 1998, Osama bin Laden declared war on the US and secretly planned for the 9/11 aacks.
● Zawahri was piecing together Pakistan and Malaysia based networks to develop Anthrax
weapons for use in the US
● ⁸ The top leadership of Al- Qaeda is reportedly having close contact with the nuclear sciensts
from Russia and Central Asia which make the possibility of nuclear terrorism a reality. A Pakistani Nuclear
Scienst, Sultan Basharuddin Mahmood was arrested and interrogated by Pakistan and the US
Intelligence Agencies. He confessed that “I met Osama bin Laden before 9/11 not to give him nuclear
know how, but to seek funds for establishing a technical college in Kabul”
● Osama bin Laden considered the acquision of WMDs an Islamic duty which was extensively
followed by his lieutenants and followers. This started their quest to acquire WMD's
● In 1998, he gave a Fatwa regarding the legimate use of Weapons of Mass Destrucon against the
US, and pointed out to the Americans in a video release to “escalate the killing and fight against you
(Americans)”.²⁰ Osama bin Laden stated during an interview with Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir, “I wish to
declare that if America used chemical or nuclear weapons against us, then we may retort with chemical
and nuclear weapons (purchased from Nuclear Black Market of Central Asia)”
● “If you have $30 million, go to the black market in Central Asia, contact any disgruntled Soviet
scienst and a lot of… dozens of smart briefcase bombs are available. They have contacted us, we sent
our people to Moscow, to Tashkent and to other Central Asian states, and they negoated and we
purchased some suit case bombs”.²
● Later in 2008, Ayman al-Zawahri gave a Fatwa jusfying the use of Weapons of Mass Destrucon,
he stated, “There is no doubt that the greatest enemy of Islam and Muslims at this me is America”.23
Adding this statement, he quoted, “arllery bombardment is permissible when the Jihad needs or requires
it”.
● Osama bin Laden, the founder and head of the extremist militant group Al-Qaeda, was killed in
Pakistan on May 2, 2011 by Navy SEALS of the US Naval Special Warfare Development Group (known
as DEVGRU or SEAL Team Six)”.²⁶ This operaon was given the code name of “Operaon Neptune
Spear”, and was carried out by the Central Intelligence Agency. The assassinaon of Osama bin Laden by
US troops gave a shock to the Al-Qaeda's top leadership. It was also an important milestone for the US
efforts to defeat Al-Qaeda but the threat of nuclear terrorism sll exists. The Al-Qaeda leadership was later
on transferred to Ayman al-Zawahri aer Osama's demise. Since then, this quest of acquiring nuclear
weapon and fissile material has been shied to the ISIS.
● ​ISIS: Striving to go Nuclear
● In the current Syrian conflict, various Al-Qaeda affiliated groups joined in, but the presence of
Al-Qaeda's top leadership is strikingly missing. In this regard, 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)', also
known as 'Daesh', emerged as a strong non-state actor in the current era.
● Abu Mushab al-Zarqawi' who started training the militants under the banner of 'Jama'at al-Tawhid
Wa'al-Jihad
● '. It later got affiliated with Al Qaeda in 2004 and started its insurgency operaons
● d. The suggeson was made to give leadership of ISI to 'Abu Umar al-Baghdadi' in order to launch
a unified resistance against the US and coalion forces.²⁹ Despite the change of the leadership, ISI was sll
dominated by the foreign fighters and this caused local resistance to the ISI.³⁰
● The Syrian War provided grounds to the ISI for its expansion and, by April 2013, it started
operaons in Syria. ISI was renamed as 'Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)' by Baghdadi and
announced the merger of 'al-Nusra' group created by Al Qaeda into the ISIS. Baghdadi's decision to
operate in Syria was cricized by al-Zawahiri but Baghdadi negated the cricism and announced the
connuity of the operaon of ISIS in Syria.³¹
● This decision led to a disavowal of ISIS by Al Qaeda and ISIS became the leading jihadist group
carrying out the military offences against the Iraqi and Syrian government security forces. In 2014, the
assets of ISIS were esmated to be worth $2 billion which were acquired through the invasion of major cies
and through various criminal acvies like extoron and smuggling.³
● ISIS is believed to have about 90 pounds of low grade uranium (which was seized from Mosul
University in Iraq aer the invasion of the city in 2014) that can be used in the Dirty Bomb's to create
serious panic among the public
● In 2015 and 2016, ISIS became the leading high profile jihadist group in Iraq and Syria.
Moreover, ISIS carried out aacks in Paris on November 13, 2015, killing 130 civilians and injuring more
than 100 people.³
● We know that Al-Qaeda has long sought of nuclear materials. Individuals involved in the aacks in
Paris and Brussels videotaped a senior manager who works at a Belgian nuclear facility, ISIL (ISIS) has
already used chemical weapons including mustard gas in Syria and Iraq. There is no doubt that if these
mad men ever got their hands on a nuclear bomb or nuclear material, they most certainly would use it to
kill as many innocent people as possible”
● Moreover, the Brish Prime Minister David Cameron warned, “ISIL (ISIS) terrorists are planning to
use drones to spray nuclear material over Western cies in a horrific 'dirty bomb' aack”. It shows that the
ISIS' probable hold over nuclear material was being taken as too real
● ​Consequences of a Nuclear Terrorist Aack
● “A 10-kiloton nuclear weapon would release a massive amount of thermal radiaon… a fireball of
superheated gas that would destroy everything for 200 meters in all direcons. The intense light and heat
radiang from the fireball would also ignite clothing as far away as 1,100 meters… the effects of thermal
radiaon, the explosion would generate an outwardly moving shockwave of overpressure capable of
crushing heavy objects, and extremely high velocity winds of several hundred miles per hour”.⁴¹
● ​Response to Nuclear Threat
● The nuclear terrorism combat strategy should comprehensively focus on three objecves:
“prevenng terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons or fissile material; stopping terrorists from delivering
a nuclear weapon to their intended target should prevenon fail; and being prepared to respond as quickly
and effecvely as possible both at home and abroad, in the event that terrorists succeed in detonang one
or more nuclear weapons”
● ​Internaonal Measure to Eliminate Nuclear Terrorism Threat
● Page 15 tk

Gender and Nationalism: Political Awakening of Muslim Women of the Subcontinent in the 20th
Century
● conflicting relationship between feminism and nationalism by probing into the perception which
views women as merely symbols of biological repository of a nation. This formulation is temporarily
suspended during nationalist struggles, where women’s support was needed to show unity of identity
driven by common objectives. Once independence was achieved, women were expected to stop being
comrades in the nationalist struggle and return to being biological and ideological repositories of the
nation itself. The political struggles of the Muslim women in the pre and post-independence Pakistan have
been used as a case in point. The 20th century social reform movement, the Pakistan Movement and
post-independence political struggles, till the end of the century, reflect how a masculine nation-state
attempts to limit women’s political and legal rights: the same nation-state that was born as a result of the
struggles of women alongside their men.
● Political struggles for achieving nationhood have been based on their claim to unity of purpose.
This unity of purpose is reflected in the inclusiveness of the struggles across various strata of the society
─ ethnicity and gend
● history tells us that women are called upon in times of crises, when social norms are forgotten
and women take up arms, join the Red Cross (Crescent), man factories and communications, and
participate wholeheartedly in the national struggle at hand. But history also tells us that the moment the
crises is over, and the men return home, women are once again asked to take a back seat, to return to
their kitchens and children. Motherhood is praised and women are told to revert to their earlier constricted
roles. The real test of whether women have gained any rights or not is after the crises and not during it
● w to their kitchens after the creation of a free and independent country? A glance at the history of
Pakistan will reveal whether the women accepted the limitations of a purely domestic role or they held
their ground and continued the struggle to achieve their rightful place as valuable citizens of the state
● Islamic Republic of Pakistan came into existence on August 14, 1947 due to the political struggle
of the Muslims of the subcontinent 2 for a separate homeland for themselves. Pakistan was surely as
much the dream of Muslim men as the Muslim women 3 since they actively participated in the ‘Pakistan
Movement.’
● Almost half of Pakistan’s population i.e. women are legally, economically and socially the
second-class citizens in one way or the other. Pakistan is not a unique case, where women assisted men
in the freedom movement and were relegated to their traditional roles after the objectives of the
movement achieved
● nationalist movements in Algeria, Bangladesh, Iran, Palestine and Afghanistan.5 D
● “In almost all liberation movements, where women were actively involved, a general reversal of
their roles became the fact of life after national liberation and the establishment of the nation-state.
● are nationalism and feminism necessarily antithetical to each other? If so why do women so
wholeheartedly take part in nationalist projects just as Muslim women of the subcontinent struggled for
Pakistan?
● ​Relationship between Nationalism and Feminism: Theoretical Debate
● Literature on nationalism is almost silent on the woman question.7 For example, Smith defines
nations as, “populations possessing an historic territory, shared myths and historical memories, a mass,
public culture, a single economy, and common rights and duties for all members, which are legitimised by
principles of nationalism. Nationalism itself can be defined as an ideological movement for the attainment
and maintenance of autonomy, unity and identity on behalf of a population deemed by some of its
members to constitute an actual or potential nation
● Nationalism as an ideology, a political principle or related to kinship or religion tends to seem
oblivious to the women question.
● heories of nationalism are not gender sensitive, that they ignore the role played by women in
national projects. T
● Literature on feminism, on the other hand, has been predominantly concerned with, a) causes of
women’s oppression relating it to unequal power distribution, patriarchy, dichotomous social constructions
of public/private domains or nature/civilisation divide; and b) the sex and gender debate
● ​Liberal feminism attributed the cause of women’s oppression to law, socialist feminism to
capitalism and radical feminism saw men as the main perpetrators of oppression
● One of the most important differences amongst women is their relation to national or ethnic
collectivities. Feminists like Jayawardena, Enloe, Yuval-Davis and Anthias 14 have brought to light the
gendered aspects of nationalism, and how the relationship between nationalism and women is viewed
differently by them, depending upon their historical and situational location.
● Women have contributed significantly in defining, establishing and maintaining the structures of
nations throughout the world
● Women’s involvement in nationalist processes can temporarily create a platform for the
expression and promotion of women’s issues especially if they are struggling against the same oppressor
● Antiimperialist struggles in Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Afghanistan, India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia,
Philippines, China, Vietnam, Korea and Japan are examples of how nationalism at the turn of the 19th
century was complementary, compatible and solidaristic to feminism. 1
● The term ‘Nation’ for Enloe means, “a collection of people who have come to believe that they
have been shaped by a common past and are destined to share a common future. That belief is usually
nurtured by a common language and a sense of otherness from groups around them. Nationalism is a
commitment to fostering those beliefs and promoting policies, which permits the nation to control its
destiny.
● Colonialism provides a fertile ground for nationalist ideas because it gives an otherwise divided
people such a potent shared experience of foreign domination 9 But she sees women and nationalism as
completely antithetical to each other. For her, nationalism has always sprung out of a “masculinised
memory, masculinised humiliation and masculinised hope.”20
● “nationalist men see their women only as: a) the community’s or the nation’s most valuable
possessions; b) the principal vehicles for transmitting the whole nation’s values from one generation to
the next; c) bearers of the community’s future generations ─ crudely, nationalist wombs; d) the members
of the community most vulnerable to defilement and exploitation by oppressive alien rulers; and e) most
susceptible to assimilation and co-option by insidious outsiders
● We can see there is a clear difference of opinion between first and the third-world feminists.
● Pakistan’s case, the struggle for women’s rights in the subcontinent coincided with the nationalist
struggle against the colonial power, when the women of the industrialised countries were fighting the men
of their own class for their rights
● Mohanty also points out that “third world women’s writings on feminism have consistently
focused on: a) the idea of simultaneity of social and political marginality and the grounding of feminist
politics in the histories of racism and imperialism; b) the crucial role of a hegemonic state in
circumscribing their/our daily lives and survival struggles; c) the significance of memory and writing in
creation of oppositional agency; and d) the differences, conflicts, and contradictions internal to third world
women’s organisations and communities
● Thus we see that feminist scholarship has very aptly demonstrated that women often are seen as
mere symbols that signify or represent the purity of culture essential to the identification of a nation. This
process is integral to the political struggles like freedom movements or revolutions leading to state
building. It also provides an explanation to how certain images of women are perceived become the
founding blocks of the definition and demarcation of political, cultural and ethnic communities.
● ​Three Generational Struggles of Muslim Women in the Subcontinent: A Case Study of
Pakistan
● To understand the dynamics of the participation of Muslim women in the nationalist movement for
an independent country and their role in Pakistan, thereafter, one has to dig a little further in history to
trace the origins of political awakening of the Muslim women of British India and also to provide a
historical framework to nationalism, and feminism for the Muslim women of the subcontinent
● Three distinct movements can be associated with them:29 a) the Social Reform Movement of the
Indian Muslims towards educating their women or the Women’s Reform Movement; b) the Pakistan
Movement; c) the struggle of women after the creation of Pakistan for a political voice and legal rights.
● These three periods of struggle roughly span late 19th century to 1939, for the Women’s Reform
Movement, 1940 to 1947, for the Pakistan Movement and from the creation of Pakistan in August 1947, to
the end of the 20th
● The first movement was distinct from the other two, as it was a social reform movement by the
Indian Muslim males aimed at reforming their women, a ‘men for women’ movement. The second was a
nationalist struggle, where, although we at times see signs of feminism sprouting from within the
parameters of nationalism, it basically was a ‘men and women against colonialism’ movement. The third
set of struggles is purely ‘women against men for women’ movements
● Islam as a religion was used by men to propagate education for their women; it was the basis of
nationalism for the Muslim men and women, when they were demanding a separate homeland for
themselves — the raison d'être for Pakistan; it was also used as a reason to legitimatise the curtailing of
political and legal right of women in Pakistan
● ​Social Reform Movement
● The defeat of the Indians in the War of Independence in 1857, consolidated British rule in the
subcontinent. The British saw Muslims as the main protagonists of the revolt, and hence punished them
by deliberately excluding them from the public domain
● Women, their only subjects, now became the custodians of their traditional values and mores,
and home a citadel of all that needed to be safeguarded and preserved.
● , “women became the repositories of Muslim culture, and purdah31 a symbol of their purity and
the identity of all Muslims.
● ​Pakistan Movement
● The Social Reform Movement, though it set out to educate women and reform certain traditional
structures like purdah and polygamy, it kept women within the confines of their homes. It is only when the
political struggle against imperialism gained momentum that women actively began to participate in the
outside life.
● Support of of many nationalist leaders
● They left the safety of their private domains and stepped out into the political/public domain. They
wrote articles, mobilised support for the All India Muslim League, held meetings and as the demand for
Pakistan grew intense
● The protests and mass mobilisation of women was not only confined to the more emancipated
provinces like Punjab, but also made their way to the traditional and restrictive province of the North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP),38 present-day Khyber Pakhtunkha (KPK), where on seeing the crowds of
burqa 39 clad Pathan women protesting against the Congress Ministry, the British Governor of the
province remarked that, ‘Pakistan is made.
● Muhammad Ali Jinnah, 41 the leader of the Muslims in India who demanded a separate country
for them, was a great proponent of the rights of Muslim women
● “It is a sin against humanity that our women are shut up within the four walls of the houses as
prisoners. There is no sanction anywhere for the deplorable conditions in which our women have to liv
● ​Post-independence Period of Struggle
● during the Pakistan Movement certain radical Islamic scholars like Maulana Abul Ala Maududi
were against both the Indian and Muslim nationalism
● Opposed to the creation of Pakistan, he, nevertheless, migrated to Pakistan after the partition and
later founded the right-wing political party Jammat-e-Islami.
● 5 And while the succession elites were busy in building the administrative machinery for the
fledgling country, radical factions gained root and demanded increased political say
● radical groups had the power of black-mailing the ruling elite by either labelling them un-Islamic or
by creating law and order situation in the country over religious and sectarian grounds.46 Women who
had actively participated in the struggle of Pakistan on an equal basis found themselves the objects of
reform of these Islamists.
● A reversal of the debate, nationalism being complementary to feminism, and fortification of the
viewpoint that nationalism is antagonistic to feminism started becoming evident.
● Incidents such as opposition to the Muslim Personal Law of Shariat granting rights to women to
inherit all forms of property including agricultural land, refusal by certain extreme elements to sit in the
assembly with women who were either unveiled or under the age of 50 started surfacing immediately after
independence
● Maududi went as far to say that voting rights should be extended to all men but limited only to
educated women; women should be barred from taking any occupation that brought them into contact
with men and public offices like the head of the state should only be held by men.48
● Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988) further added to the zeal of these radical elements by making Islamising
of the country a state responsibility. Discriminatory laws like the Hudood Ordinances49 were passed.
These ordinances not only downgrade a woman’s legal status, but are also legally endorse sexual
discrimination against women
● The two important aspects of women’s movements in Pakistan pointed out by Mumtaz and
Shaheed are firstly any attempt by the women to ask for their rights has been seen as a threat to religion
by the radical factions and has resulted in a confrontation between them and women. Secondly only a
minority of women, belonging to the urban, educated, professional, middle and upper classes have been
fighting for women’s rightful place in the society.52
Civil Nuclear Deal with the US: Prospects for Pakistan
● Pakistan has emerged as a responsible nuclear weapon state by developing strong credentials in
the fields of nuclear safety, security, stability, and has developed a stringent strategic export control
system. Pakistan has not only fulfilled its national obligation of safeguarding its national security
objectives vis-à-vis India, but it has been also fulfilling its international obligations, to win the trust of the
international community. To strengthen its nuclear credentials further, Pakistan wanted to become an
effective part of the international Nuclear NonProliferation Regime (NNPR). The international community,
including the US, appreciates Pakistan’s nuclear safety and security standards. One of the important
aspects of Pakistan’s credentials is its safeoperational experience of handling peaceful nuclear
technology for over 40 years. According to its Energy Vision 2050, Pakistan has established an ambitious
plan to develop 40,000 MWe through nuclear power. For that purpose it has been seeking international
support and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear technology to meet its growing energy demands.
Like the Indo-US nuclear deal, Pakistan has also been looking for a similar deal with the US. It has also
been seeking a nondiscriminatory and criteria-based membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG),
to do a legitimate verifiable peaceful nuclear trade with the advanced nuclear states. With this premise,
this research paper is aimed at exploring the questions that why a Pak-US civil nuclear deal is significant
for Pakistan? How the US has, so far, responded to the Pakistan’s demand of a nuclear deal? And what
are the prospects of a Pak-US civil nuclear deal.
● Its nuclear weapons capability is only aimed at maintaining strategic balance in the region as its
‘full spectrum’ deterrence is meant only to deter Indian hostile intentions and to counter the growing
Indian conventional and nuclear capabilities
● Pakistan, without compromising on its national security, has been making its every effort to
address challenges in the nuclear domain. It has been actively strengthening its nuclear command and
control structure; promoting nuclear non-proliferation principles; strengthening its national export control
laws and regulations; safeguarding its nuclear installations; and cooperating with the international
community to strengthen the NNPR
● Since the inception of the idea of Indo-US civilian nuclear cooperation agreement in 2005,
Pakistan being a US ally in its war on terrorism, has been demanding for a similar access to peaceful
nuclear technology from the US
● US did not respond positively to Pakistan’s demand
● One of the reasons could be the US’s displeasure over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons development
in the past and concerns over safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear programme,
● The US did offer some incentives to Pakistan like in 2003, waving off US$1 billion loan, in 2004,
granting of Non-NATO Ally status; in 2006, forming of Pak-US strategic partnership and in 2009, granting
of US$7.5 billion nonmilitary aid under Kerry-Lugar Bill.
● Pakistan’s longstanding support for the peaceful use of nuclear technology; strategic restraint
efforts to strengthen strategic stability in South Asia; its nuclear safety and security measures and its
stringent strategic export control regime to strengthen NNPR proves a fact that Pakistan’s nuclear
credentials are far better than IndiaThe international community, including the US and the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly appreciated Pakistan’s growing nuclear credentials
● growing tilt towards India; Pakistan’s image due to its past proliferation concerns; development of
tactical nuclear weapons; Pakistan’s policy towards major international non-proliferation instruments like
Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT) and Comprehensive Test ban Treaty (CTBT); and economic
factors are some of the stumbling blocks between the Pak-US civil nuclear cooperation…. why civil
nuclear deal with the US is significant for Pakistan? How did the US respond to Pakistani demand of a
civil nuclear deal? And with reference to the current status of Pak-US relations, what are the prospects of
a nuclear deal with the US?
● Mark Fitzpatrick supports the notion of considering Pakistan as a normal nuclear Pakistan
provided that it demonstrates responsible nuclear behaviour
● Washington should not reject a deal outright as it could provide an opportunity to improve the
US-Pakistan troubled relations on a steadier footing
● ​Significance of a Nuclear Deal with the US
● the significance of Pakistan’s interest in securing a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the
US can be analysed at three level of analysis i.e. national, regional, and in the international context
● importance of each level of analysis could be understood with several variables. These variables
range from development of a national energy security mix to access to latest peaceful nuclear technology
through international assistance and nuclear trade; to seek a regional strategic balance and stability and
to strengthen the NNPR as a responsible nuclear weapon state. Pakistan also wanted to get recognition
of the minimum means to safeguard its legitimate security interests vis-à-vis Indian hegemonic designs
and wanted to make friendly relations with major powers.
● Pakistan has been looking for long-term alternative energy solutions.
● Nuclear energy not only qualifies as a clean source of energy, but it is also a sustainable energy
option. According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) State of Industry Report
2015, Pakistan’s installed nuclear capacity (CHASNUP I & II and KANUPP) was 787 MWe, which
accounts for 3.17 per cent of total installed generation capacity of the country.9
● long trusted “all weather friend” China, under that IAEA safeguards is constructing CHASNUP
Unit-4, and the groundbreaking of KANUP 2 and 3 has been already performed on November 26, 2013.1
● China has also agreed to construct more nuclear power plants in the country. It is important to
note here that Pakistan’s all these existing and upcoming civilian nuclear facilities and projects are under
the IAEA safeguards. In response to criticism made over Pakistan-China nuclear cooperation, China has
also reiterated that its peaceful nuclear cooperation with Pakistan is in accordance with the principles of
the NSG under the IAEA safeguards.11
● Pakistan’s stringent strategic export control laws, its improved nuclear safety and security
standards and its commitment to obey the IAEA safeguards in its existing and future nuclear power plants
has enabled Pakistan to qualify as an equally responsible nuclear state to benefit from peaceful
international nuclear trade. However, to meet the ambitious target of 40,000 MWe through nuclear power,
Pakistan is seeking international assistance and cooperation particularly from the most advanced nuclear
states like the US
● Pakistan has already benefited in past under the US “Atoms for Peace” programme and seeking
to benefit again from the US to meet its growing energy demands. The past example of Pak-US nuclear
cooperation is Pakistan Research Reactor-I (PARR-I), which was supplied by the US in 1965. The
PARR-I was converted from using highly-enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium fuel (LEU) in
October 1991.12
● On regional level, Pakistan believes that the Indo-US nuclear deal has titled the strategic balance
in favour of India. Since, India, being a non-signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has
been allowed to access the international nuclear market,
● India has signed nuclear agreements with the UK, France, Japan, and many other countries,
including a recent deal
● Overall, the Indo-US deal has not only ended a 34-years old ban on India for peaceful
international nuclear trade, but it has also enabled India to improve the quality and quantity of its nuclear
weapons programme
● On Pakistan’s part, this reflects that the international discrimination and western double standards
are blocking Pakistan’s path to progress, and are only allowing India to improve its nuclear weapons
capability ─ vertical proliferation.14 Therefore, Pakistan believes that a regional strategic balance
between India and Pakistan could be restored by the US through a similar civil nuclear agreement with
Pakistan, and allowing it to access peaceful international nuclear trade by becoming the member of the
NSG
● In the international context, if one looks at Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives, it is quite clear that
Pakistan believes in non-discrimination and an equal-security-for-all approach
● Post-9/11, the US enhanced engagement with Pakistan has helped the US to pursue its broader
geopolitical objectives with reference to its war on terrorism.
● It has played an important role to control the spread of nuclear weapons technology and due to
its status; it will continue to play a more effective role in the nuclear non-proliferation domain in the future.
● Recently, China’s rejection of the Indian application at the 2016 NSG-Plenary reflects that the
international community still respects the norms of the NNPR
● Despite this rejection, India, the US and other major powers are aiming at securing India’s
membership to the NSG.
● Pakistan has always supported a non-discriminatory and simultaneous criteriabased entry for all
responsible states to become a part of the NSG
● Pakistan believes that the benefits of peaceful nuclear energy should be provided to all the
responsible states, particularly the developing ones for their economic prosperity and growth
● Pakistan expects that the US can help end this discrimination by providing a similar access to
peaceful nuclear technology to countries like Pakistan.
● ​Demand and Response
● more than a decade old. Pakistan started to raise it voice, when the US initiated the process of a
civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India on July 18, 2005
● The US declared the Indo-US nuclear deal as a ‘Next Step’ in global Strategic Partnership with
India, a country who is a non-signatory to the NPT and whose nuclear safeguard violations resulted in the
creation of the NSG.
● he US also ignored the fact that such a deal would undermine strategic stability dynamics in the
South Asian region.
● On April 13, 2006 Pakistan Foreign Office highlighted that instead of this country specific
approach, the US should have offered civil nuclear technology to both India and Pakistan. 20 During the
US President, George W. Bush, visit to Pakistan in March 2006, Pakistan’s President, General Pervez
Musharraf, discussed the issue of a civil nuclear agreement with the US.
● , President Bush explicitly made it clear to Pakistan that “…Pakistan and India are different
countries with different needs and different histories.” 21 He further added that Pakistan should not expect
a similar nuclear deal any time soon and raised the US concerns over nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
22 That was a time when Pakistan was in a security alliance with the US to fight its war on terrorism and
was considered as a strategic partner of the US.
● Consequently, after the implementation of the Indo-US nuclear deal and an explicit denial to
Pakistan, Pakistan’s security concerns started to aggravate
● This growing US pro-India tilt and rapprochement started to destabilise strategic dynamics of the
South Asian region. Later on June 18, 2006 Musharraf, in an interview to China’s Central Television
stated that Pakistan should be treated on equal footings for maintaining the regional geo-strategic
balance, because India and Pakistan have the same nuclear status and both are non-signatory to the
NPT.2
● March 2010, the US and Pakistan initiated their ‘Strategic Dialogue’ as a next step to renew and
enhance their bilateral relations with stability, prosperity, opportunity and to advance their shared
objectives.26
● Prior to the launch of the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue, Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman,
Abdul Basit, said that “Pakistan is an energy-deficit country and we’re looking for all sources, including
nuclear, to meeting our requirements.”
● with Dunya TV, replying to a question on Pak-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement said that
“we are going to have many issues, including that one, which the Pakistani delegation wishes to raise.
And we’re going to really go deep into all of these.
● In the meantime, Pakistan, keeping in mind the major stumbling blocks between its relations with
the US, particularly in the nuclear filed, continued to enhance its nuclear credentials. It has made its every
effort to address concerns of the international community, particularly the US. Pakistan not only
addressed its command and control issue by strengthening its National Command Authority (NCA) and by
making stringent exports control laws in harmony with oth
● On January 13, 2015 in a joint statement of the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue, the US
Secretary of State, John Kerry, showed full confidence over Pakistan’s export control system, its nuclear
security and its proactive engagement with the international community,
● Pakistan’s participation in the all four NSS respectively in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016 was also a
tremendous achievement. During the first NSS, held in Washington in April 2010, Pakistan fully reflected
its commitment to nuclear safety and security and its support for strengthening the NNPR
● After the first NSS, Pakistan embarked upon the initiative of fulfilling its national and international
obligations in the nuclear domain. Pakistan reflected all positive steps taken by it in the nuclear domain
since 2010, in the second NSS held in Seoul in March 2012. In this Summit Pakistan reiterated its
commitment for safety and security of its nuclear assets, national and international obligation in the
nuclear field
● After the 2011 Salala incident, Pakistani Parliament unanimously passed guidelines for Pakistan’s
engagement with the US. It clearly highlighted that “Pakistan’s nuclear programme and assets, including
its safety and security cannot be compromised. The US-Indo civil nuclear agreement has significantly
altered the strategic balance in the region, therefore, Pakistan should seek from the US and others a
similar treatment/facility.”39 In March 2014, Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, in Pakistan’s
National Statement at third NSS said that Pakistan has been running a safe, secure and safeguarded civil
nuclear programme for more than 40 years, and that Pakistan has the necessary requirement to produce
civil nuclear energy. He urged that to meet energy deficit and to revive economy, Pakistan need
international cooperation and assistance for nuclear energy under the IAEA safeguards
● Pakistan reiterated its position at the fourth NSS held in Washington in April 2016. In its national
statement, Pakistan highlighted that it believed that safe and sustainable civil nuclear energy was
essential to advance its economic development plans, and to realise this plan, Pakistan sought
international civil nuclear cooperation.
● In a recent move, on May 19, 2016 Pakistan submitted its formal application for membership to
the NSG
● ​Prospects of the Pak-US Civil Nuclear Deal
● Pakistan’s demand for civil nuclear cooperation with the US and its desire to join multilateral NSG
and other export control regimes has been evolved to overcome its energy shortages
● Pakistan has always raised its voice against the US discriminatory policies in this region and has
always expressed its desire to play a constructive role in strengthening the NNPR by cooperating with
multilateral export control regimes. The US response to Pakistani demand shows that initially the US
explicitly denied possibilities of any such deal with Pakistan. Later on, the international nuclear experts
community’s opinion emerged that if Pakistan places limitations on its nuclear weapons and related
delivery capabilities then there is a possibility that Pakistan could be mainstreamed into the international
nuclear order for peaceful nuclear trade
● As far media reports on limiting Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities in exchange of a civilian nuclear
deal is concerned, Pakistan has clearly ruled out these reports and said that it will never limit its nuclear
and missile programme
● In the past decades, the Pak-US relations have witnessed many ups and downs. Sometimes
Pakistan ranked low in the US foreign policy objectives and was considered as a “strategic backwater,” 59
and sometimes it ranked at the highest importance place and was considered a key to the US foreign
policy objectives in this region
● Page 18 tk

Conflict and Peace Journalism: Role of Media in Pakistan

● This study aims to investigate the reporting of major conflicts in Pakistan by two leading TV
channels i.e. Geo TV and Dunya TV, to ascertain the nature of the coverage in terms of being escalatory
or deescalatory. It aims to explore these conflicts from a peace journalism perspective. The conflicts
include: the Taliban conflict, Balochistan conflict, sectarian conflict and ethno-political conflict in Karachi.
The study is primarily a quantitative content analysis to explore the media coverage of conflicts during
both high and low intensity periods from 2014 to 2015. The findings suggest that Pakistan news TV
channels reported the Taliban and the ethno-political conflict in Karachi in an escalatory fashion, ridden in
a de-contextualised pattern. While, on the other hand, the Balochistan and the sectarian conflict were
mainly reported in de-escalatory terms owing to various socio-cultural reasons impacting the coverage.
The findings are quite consistent with the existing literature on conflict journalism, which suggests that the
media, in general, adopts a more propagandist and nationalistic stance, when the threats to national
security are highest whereas it adopts a more humanistic stance, when the threats to national security are
assumed to be low.
● The 70-year history of Pakistan is marred by a number of political and security conflicts which
have worsened with the passage of time
● conflicts include: the Taliban conflict between the Pakistan Army and Taliban fighters; the conflict
in Balochistan between the Pakistan Army and Baloch separatists; the sectarian conflict between the Shia
and Sunni sects and the ethno-political conflicts in Karachi between three different ethnic communities ─
the Urdu-speaking Mohajir community, Sindhi and Pashto speaking people
● the Pakistani media thrives on these conflicts to gain high ratings.1 A similar trend has been also
noted in the Indian media while reporting the Mumbai attacks in 2008
● Many mass communication experts believe that dependency on media increases during conflict
times and hence greater media effects on audiences
● This study largely aims to explore how different disputes are reported, what themes are
prioritised and what factors determine the nature of coverage through the war and peace journalism
perspectives
● Conflict journalism is influenced by an array of factors including national interests, professional
and commercial constraints and public opinion
● ​Taliban Conflict
● The Taliban conflict started in the North-West of Pakistan in 2004, when after the US invasion of
Afghanistan, Pakistan was pressured by the Western powers to check cross-border infiltration of Taliban
fighters
● When Pakistan stationed its forces in the region, the tribal people and sympathisers of Taliban
were offended, therefore, they started agitation.
● Zarb-e-Azb, the Pakistani military has successfully pushed the Taliban fighters to the Afghan
border and secured most of the tribal areas
● ​Balochistan Conflict
● After the creation of Pakistan, the ruling dynasty refused to accede to Pakistan but was
persuaded to integrate into the mainstream, when guaranteed full autonomy.
● The situation worsened in the 1970s when the federal government staged a military operation
against the Baloch insurgents
● Since the 1990s, the conflict was almost buried and Baloch nationalists became part of national
politics.
● The conflict was revived in 2006, when Nawab Akbar Bugti, a Baloch chieftain, was killed by the
military forces of Pakistan for his alleged anti-Pakistan stance.
● The root cause of unrest in Balochistan lies in the realisation among the people that their
resources are being exploited without giving any benefit to them.9 The nationalists often cite the example
of the Sui gas facilit
● to receive a gas facility was Quetta in 1986
● ​Ethno-political Conflict in Karachi
● The ethno-political tension started with the formation of Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) in
1985, aimed at securing the rights of Urdu-speaking settlers.
● Other political parties including the Awami National Party (ANP) became active to gain support of
Pashtoon settlers from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and tribal areas, and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
started championing the cause of local Sindhi and Balochi people.
● The first ethnic tension gripped the city in 1985, followed by tension in 1988, 1992 and 1996
● ​Sectarian Conflict
● Pakistan tops the list of Muslim countries where sectarianism is on the rise.
● ​War-media Symbiosis
● The existing scholarship on the war-media relationship reveals that media escalate conflicts for
nationalistic and professional reasons
● Excellent commentaries are available on the media’s role during the two world wars, the entire
Cold War era, US intervention in Vietnam and Latin America, the Middle East, Iraq and
● The relationship may have been generally explored, however, “the problem does not lie in why
the media covers [sic] terrorism but lies in how the media covers [sic] terrorism (original emphasis).”22
● The realisation that media can be used for peace purposes is as old as the fear of its ability to
inflame conflicts
● During the first quarter of the 20th century, the Nation Radio was set by the League of Nations to
promote peace and harmony in Europe. Its successor, the United Nations (UN), also established crisis
radios in the troubled region of Africa to promote peace and tranquillity
● during conflict times, generally, national media go hand-in-hand with other government
institutions to win support for the war and demonise the enemy.2
● 4 In the case of Pakistan, both the military and government have used the media to advance their
perspectives in the War on Terror.2
● In case of the US, researchers have studied the excessive use of the media for promoting
national interests during the two world wars,
● Adopting peace journalism as a theoretical framework, this study is mainly designed to
investigate how leading TV news channels in Pakistan report on the four deadly conflicts
● Keeping in mind these considerations, the three main research questions have been formulated:
a) Judging from the perspective of war/peace journalism, how did the Geo TV and Dunya TV report the
four conflicts in Pakistan? b) What are the key thematic frames that characterise the reporting of these
fours conflicts by Geo TV and Dunya TV? c) What are the similarities and differences among the key
discursive strategies that Geo TV and Dunya TV apply to report the four conflicts?
● Regarding the Taliban conflict, the government announced a peace agreement with the Taliban
fighters, but then soon launched a military operation against them, when it realised the Taliban could not
be easily appeased. So, it is interesting to discuss how the media behaved during this whole time period
● ​Reporting of Conflict Escalation​​1​. Securitisation ​Conflicts are securitised; they are discussed
in terms of threats, dangers, and occupations. Police force, army personnel and elites get the limelight.
Conspiracies, issue of national sovereignty, independence, and patriotism are related with the conflict.
The system, culture and social values are securitised and feared to be lost if enemy prevails. 2.
Otherisation​​ Media takes sides in conflicts, one party is treated as ‘other or alien to our culture, and not
belonging to ‘us’ and hence dangerous if it prevails. Biasness prevails in media discourse and the whole
conflict story is told from one perspective only. Collective fears are aroused and the ‘bad deeds’ of
aggressors highlighted to send a message ‘that the whole nation is united against you.’3. I​ncompatiblity
Conflict is presented as a tug of war in which interests are incompatible. Compromises are not possible.
The parties involved cannot agree on a single agenda and hence doomed for a worst scenario in times
ahead. The conflicting parties represent antagonist interests, each hell-bent on prevailing over the other.
The antagonist parties stand for different diametrically opposed values where zero-sum orientation
prevails. 4. ​Politicisation Ethnic and sectarian a​​ffiliations are politicised, the victims belonging to
political groups are considered worthy and common people get scant coverage, political wrangling are
highlighted. The aggressors and sufferers are identified through their presumed political affiliations;
deaths, sufferings, trauma in conflicts are neglected and the emerging conflicting political scenario
becomes focus of media attention, where political statements, controversies appear to be the only news.
Vested interests of political parties are ignored and media always ready to provide a conduit to blame
others, thus creating turmoil. 5. ​Sensationalism ​Conflict reporting is dramatised, and sensationalised;
every unfolding event is treated as mysterious, historic and unprecedented; drama and wild outbursts are
highlighted. Arguments and counter-arguments of antagonists are the major feeds, where the opposite
group is ridiculed and challenged. Future is predicted to be more violent and ominous, no chances for
peace overtures.
● ​Reporting of Conflict De-escalation 1​​. ​Humanisation Conflicts are humanised​​, individual
sufferings are highlighted, and trials and tribulation of common people get maximum coverage. Plight of
women and children and other vulnerable groups is discussed. Conflict is covered from the perspective of
the common people. Loss to the social institutions and local culture is counted and steps urged for their
recovery. 2. ​We’ness​​ Conflicting parties are treated in unison; ‘us versus them’ notions are avoided.
Contributions of the aggrieved parties for national cause are counted. Responsibility for law and order
situation is equally shared. Negative attributes are avoided. Conflict itself is treated as a problem and
efforts urged for solution. Concerns of aggrieved party are shared and violence is explained from a broad
range. 3.​ Compatability​​ The commonalities and sameness in the standpoints of conflicting parties are
explored and urged for reconciliation. The conflicting parties are encouraged and extolled for overtures
that promote dialogue and bring the antagonists closer. History, culture and other interests that forge unity
are highlighted. Conflicts are contextualised and mistakes of both sides are exposed for rapprochement.
4​. De-politicisation​​ Focus on the non-political aspects of conflicts; affiliations like politics, ethnicity,
religiosity or other considerations are avoided. The social, cultural and economic costs of conflicts are
highlighted. Political shenanigans are exposed in non-political and less sensational tones; The artificial
barriers among conflicting groups produced by politicians are scrutinised threadbare, agendas and
interests of politicians are exposed, examples of different ethnic and sectarian groups having political
affiliations that live peacefully are highlighted. 5​. Responsibility ​Reporters feel responsibility to society,
outcomes of unfolding conflicts are given beforehand, damage to society is told and retold, caution is
advised, reporting is devoid of sensationalism, pros and cons of conflicts are presented, and opportunities
for peace explored. Contexts and background and root causes of the conflict is presented with an urge for
peaceful resolution
Indian Efforts to Change the Demography of IOK
● The Federal Home Minister of the government of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mr. Rajnath
Singh, unveiled a plan in April 2015, to settle tens of thousands of non-Kashmiri Hindus in the Muslim
dominated disputed territory of Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). BJP has long vowed to settle 200,000 to
300,000 Hindus in IOK. The three disclosed and two undisclosed composite Hindu townships for the
non-Kashmiris, to be made on the acquired lands of the farmers would be self-contained and heavily
guarded. IOK enjoys an independent constitutional status. Article 370 does not allow non-Kashmiris to
own land in Kashmir. Modi is well aware that demographics can reshape politics by redrawing the
boundaries of population. The decision is akin with the Israeli style settlements in Palestine. It perpetuates
the cycle of vicious and unlawful politics. In an ideologically polarised society, the identity-based animus
would further gratify the Indian policy of human rights violations and denial to the right of
self-determination. Muslims, by far, are a majority with 68.3 per cent of the total population followed by
Hindus and Buddhists in IOK. The power of numbers entrenched in democracy would clearly enjoy
alliance with prevalent black laws and gradual erosion of Article 370, if settlements are encouraged.
Consequently, it would generate more instability in an effort to incorporate IOK politically, ideologically
and territorially. With demographics as a crucial factor in any peace building effort, Indo-Pak peace would
face uphill struggle even further
● Ibn-e-Khuldoon maintained in his theory of ‘Rise and Fall’ that the growth of dense population is
generally favourable to the maintenance and increase of imperial power. State’s security and war-making
capabilities are largely dependent upon the opinion trends of the population along with economic power
and military capability.State’s security and war-making capabilities are largely dependent upon the
opinion trends of the population along with economic power and military capability
● State’s security and war-making capabilities are largely dependent upon the opinion trends of the
population along with economic power and military capability
● The democracy of majority rule in India aims to gain privilege by the power of numbers in IOK.
Soon after the partition of the subcontinent, the Indian Army was granted a temporary admission by the
Government of Jammu and Kashmir. It was placed under three restraints by the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC) Resolution of April 21, 1948, identified by late Sheikh Abdullah.2 This provision has,
however, been degenerated into a role of occupation and diversified into civil rights violations of the
people of IOK.
● The planned permanent settlements of the retired Indian soldiers in Sainik colonies, as a
reminiscent of Israeli style strategies, is basically a pursuit of a repressive dream. The Indian autocratic
vision of changing the demography is increasingly sorted into its think-alike Hindu community. This has
sparked indigenous outrage even after almost seven decades.
● The gradual erosion of the Article 370 of the Constitution of India is yet another victim of BJP’s
Kashmir policy. It gives a special status to IOK.
● The expropriation and seizure of the land by displacing the local population, is politically
motivated and reflective of colonial autocracy.
● Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention clearly says, “the occupying forces shall not deport of
its own civilian population into the territory it occupies.
● Ravinder Raina, the BJP Member of the Legislative Assembly, has given a roadmap of draconian
surveillance networks, in semblance with the Israeli style checkpoints, to ensure the security of the
settlements of displaced Kashmiri Pundits, as the selective Indian citizens in enclosed townships. They
would be given separate security zones contrary to the Article 3 of the Constitution of India.
● Apartheid is explained as, “any measures, including legislative measures, designed to divide the
population along racial lines by the creation of separate reserves and ghettos for the members of the
racial group or groups... the expropriation of land property belonging to a racial group or groups or to
members thereof.”
● Article 12 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) is a flagship human
rights treaty
● According to the religious community, the composition of the Kashmiri Muslim population is 68.31
per cent as per the statistics from the 2011 Census India Population. An estimated 50,000 to 150,000
Kashmiri Muslims and from 150,000-190,000 Kashmiri Pundits have been displaced during the resistance
movement by the freedom fighters since 1989.
● The increase in numbers of Pundits for repatriation from 190,000 to 300,000 by the Modi
government (as announced) would significantly destabilise the population configuration
● Instab
● ility is a catalyst for migration. It can either be a precipitant or a conditioning factor in India’s
relations with Pakistan, making the demography equally important in both war and peace.The squeezing
of space for Kashmiri Muslims is likely to encourage migration to its neighbourhood area of Azad Jammu
and Kashmir (AJK) and Pakistan.
● Almost 30,000 refugees have already taken refuge in Pakistan Administered Kashmir
● ​Theoretical Placement of the Politics of Demographic Play
● Kautilya, a contemporary of Plato, had written in his Arthashastra that “a large population is a
source of political, economic and military strength of a nation.”
● Commen
● ted largely as a book of realism, it suggests calculative and sometimes even brutal measures to
preserve the interests of the state. Bhargava, a follower of Kautilya, says that “India needs the harsh
measures of Kautilya the realist, in order to enjoy the luxury of Ashoka the idealist.”
● In IOK, India has, so far, ardently followed Kautilya’s ‘science of politics.’ The wound has been
festering without a political solution for over 70 years.
● Twentieth century is already defined as a century of global and regional intermixing, borne by
technological and economic integration. The political and geographical boundaries left from the times of
imperialism have impacted in the shape of multiethnic societies with shifting religious and ethnic
compositions.
● ​Demography: An Instrument of Politics
● ​Demographic Engineering
● Since then, the population factor has been manipulated in Jammu and Kashmir periodically. The
Kashmiri Pundits, the only Hindus of the Kashmir valley, who maintained 4-5 per cent of the Kashmir
valley, started leaving the valley in much large numbers in the wake of resistance movement in 1990,
which started as a result of rigging in 1987 elections. The exodus is referred to as from 150,000 to
190,000 people from the total population of 200 thousand. 16 The Indian Central government is now
building colonies for Hindu Pundits in the Valley and each Pundit family is allocated with 2 million Indian
Rupees (INR) for its rehabilitation.
● ​Modi’s Strategy Towards Population Engineering
● BJP was able to bag all the seats in Jammu in 2014 elections, by adopting two-pronged strategy:
a) Rashtriya Swayemsavek Sangh (RSS), a right-wing nationalist social militant group of BJP has been
able to hold back Muslims by promoting right-wing violent policies of Hindutva. The people of Jammu are
now on the verge of having their own separate identity.
● b) BJP was successful in luring the Hindus by the promises of rehabilitating Kashmiri Pundits and
refugees who had left the state earlier during the uprisings in 1990’s.
● ​Article 370
● Originally, Article 370 gave Jammu and Kashmir complete control over their destiny (except when
it comes to matters of defence and diplomacy). Fundamental rights and duties, directive principles of the
state policy and even the supremacy of the Indian Supreme Court didn't apply to the state. The state had
its own constitution and flag just as Azad Kashmir. Article 35-A was added to the Part III of the Indian
Constitution through the constitution order. It confers special rights and privileges for the permanent
residents of Jammu and Kashmir. It also imposes restrictions on the people of other states of India to
secure employment, residency, and acquisition of immoveable property, right to scholarship or any other
kind of provision given by the government.27 The draft and the resolution of the Article 370 was prepared
by the first Constituent Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir and there is no constitutional procedure to
review or revoke the Article
● The draft and the resolution of the Article 370 was prepared by the first Constituent Assembly of
Jammu and Kashmir and there is no constitutional procedure to review or revoke the Article
● The key sticking point of the Article, however, that is the citizens from other parts of India cannot
easily migrate to Kashmir nor acquire land in the state. Only ‘Permanent Residents’ of the state can
acquire property.29 The state prides in being unique this way and there is a claim that such uniqueness
further breeds separatism
● ​Black Laws
● Similarly, civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights of the people are being systematically
violated. Demographic shuffle is one of the modes tightly knotted with the aim to downplay the Article on
the one hand, and defy the Kashmiriat on the other, under the umbrella of the black laws by restricting
their integration. The Salvation Movement in Jammu and Kashmir says that "the safety of the Kashmiris
cannot be guaranteed in the presence of hundreds of thousands of Indian troops and black laws in the
territory.”31 Nonetheless, the essence of Kashmiriat is in social consciousness despite ethnic, cultural
and religious diversity.
● ​Hindutva: A Pronounced Politics of BJP in IOK
● BJP’s demand for a 'secure zone' for Hindu Pundits is more a roadmap for expanding draconian
laws and surveillance networks. The Israeli style checkpoints throughout the Kashmir region to ensure the
security of the Hindu pundits at the expense of the Muslim residents would be an act of state intimidation
over the Kashmiri population. he Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti has already given an assurance to the
Union Home Minister for the acquisition and provision of land at the earliest for composite townships in
the Valley. The state government has announced that the composite townships will be self-enclosed units
with schools, shopping districts and hospitals
● ​Demographics vs Peace Building Efforts
● Kashmiris are in siege by the presence of occupying forces, black laws, human rights violations,
breach of the Indian constitution and the erosion of Article 370. The demographic manipulation is perhaps
most savage. The indigenous insurgency started since 1980’s has placed the region in the throes of
rebellion with more than 1, 00,000 already killed.35 Burhan Wani is not the first Kashmiri who faced
extrajudicial killing. Thousands have been killed in their act of extrajudicial killings.
● International media and human rights organisations must be given an access to the region so that
the inviolability of the rights of the Kashmiris is upheld. A proactive emphasises by the UN special envoy
is required to revoke the black laws. Demographic displacement through illegal Hindu settlements, and
state terrorism must not be allowed under the international law, and till the time the region is disputed.
● On the other hand, Pakistan needs to keep the UNSC informed about the human rights violations
and pursue the policy of proactive diplomacy. It needs to bring the Muslim world on board more
consistently and seek their diplomatic support to pressurise India for the resolution of the Kashmir issue in
accordance with the UNSC resolutions.
Prospects for Russia-Pakistan Rapprochement
● Russia and Pakistan have rarely enjoyed cordial relations in the past. However, in the recent
years, the two countries have undertaken some important initiatives to normalise their relations that
encompass economic, political as well as military dimensions. The article analyses this developing thaw
in Russia-Pakistan relations and assesses its future trajectory in the context of what can be arguably
termed as an evolving post-9/11 regional scenario.
● Russia-Pakistan bilateral relations have witnessed some important transformations in the recent
past. The two countries are now regularly talking to each other on almost all aspects of inter-state
relations including military-to-military contacts
● Putin has even remarked that his government views Pakistan as a reliable and very important
partner
● his government views Pakistan as a reliable and very important partner.1 What factors are
contributing to this unprecedented change in this relationship, and what opportunities and constraints
shape this process?
● ​Cold Past
● t faced an existential security threat from the neighbouring country India. As Pakistan chose,
Washington
● (CENTO) and South East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO)
● This divide was further widened, when New Delhi developed a closer relationship with the Soviet
Union soon after its independence. The Indo-Soviet relationship flourished in the subsequent years,
● India emerged as the major buyer of the Soviet arms.
● For the first time in February 1957, Russia used its veto power in the UN Security Council
(UNSC) in favour of India to bar a resolution on Kashmir, putting a permanent blockade on any progress
on the Kashmir dispute in the UNSC and, hence, any chances of friendly Soviet-Pakistan relations.
● ​China emerged as another factor in the Russia-Pakistan divergence during the Cold War
● Beijing naturally viewed Pakistan as a valuable partner, when China’s increasingly troublesome
relations with New Delhi became noisy, during the 1960s, as demonstrated by their border clash in 1962
● On the other hand, Pakistan viewed China as an important counterweight to India and the
situation resulted in a new regional balance, where an Indo-Soviet alliance was facing a Sino-Pakistani
entente.
● Russia-Pakistan differences over Afghanistan emerged as another factor in their bilateral
divergence since the final major episode of the Cold War unfolded with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
in 1979. Pakistan’s decision to support the Afghan resistance against Soviet occupation while becoming
the conduit for the transfer of Chinese and American weapons to various Mujahideen groups naturally
enraged the Soviet leadership. It, thus, added another chapter of distrust in their bilateral relationship
● The end of the Cold War created genuine hopes that the two countries would now be able to
improve their ties in a less polarised international environment. The departure of Soviet forces from
Afghanistan in 1989, and the subsequent downfall of the Moscow-supported Najibullah regime in Kabul,
in 1992, also removed an important irritant in the bilateral relationship. A degree of optimism was
generated, when soon after the end of the Cold War Russia’s new government signalled positively
regarding its changing outlook towards South Asia. In a gesture of goodwill towards Islamabad, Russian
Vice President, Rutskoi, visited Pakistan towards the end of December 1991. During his visit, Rutskoi not
only supported Pakistan’s proposal of declaring South Asia ─ a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ), but
also made some important adjustments in Russia’s Kashmir policy, when he asked both India and
Pakistan to show respect for human rights, causing displeasure in New Delhi
● This, however, proved to be a temporary thaw and could not be sustained, and the relations
again deteriorated in the coming years. This was highlighted when, during President Boris Yeltsin’s visit to
India in 1993, Russia and India signed a new 20-year Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation, a
reminiscent of the 1971 treaty between the two countries.
● Russia again endorsed the Indian position on Kashmir
● During the rest of the1990s, Russia remained tilted towards its old ally in the region, which was
demonstrated on several occasions. For example, Moscow openly sided with New Delhi during the 1999
Kargil Crisis
● ​Increasing Warmth
●

Pakistan-China Relations: Developments in Economic and Security Areas in the 21st Century

★ The geostrategic significance of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has always been exceptional for
China. Pakistan has significant importance for China in the 21st century, especially in the context of
China’s rise in the global arena
★ China sees Pakistan as a bridge towards Muslim countries.
★ It has the fifth largest standing armed force in the world with one of the best intelligence agencies
and is the first Islamic nuclear weapons state, which makes Pakistan important in regional and
international politics
★ Although gesotratgeic position of Pakistan makes it an important regional player, yet it is
encircled by multitude of problems including a hostile neighbour ─ India
★ China serves as a ray of hope towards solutions of Pakistan’s economic and security issues
★ ​Neorealist Perspective in Pakistan-China Relations
★ Neorealism covers biggest issues, such as past, present, and future of states interaction in the
international relations: war, the avoidance of war, power balancing, power seeking, the dismemberment of
states, security competition, arms races and alliance formation
★ Neorealism, as a theory of the international relations, seeks to explain how states, particularly the
economically and militarily powerful states, behave in the international system and how they interact with
each other at the global level
★ As opposed to classical realists, who consider states as a unitary element and acknowledge its
dominant role in the international system, the neorealists concentrate on the international system that
influences states relationship with each other in an anarchic world.
★ As discussed, Neorealism focus on state relations with each other in a way where the
international system influences their interactions in the form of shared common interests like forming an
alliance, security dilemma, maintaining the balance of power and the balance of threat to secure their
main objective of ensuring their security. For example, the 1962 China-India war, the ups and downs in
Pak-US relations, Pak-India relations, China-US and China-Soviet (and now with Russia) relations and
the ensuing global and regional geopolitical environment, illustrates the theoretical influence of
Neorealism on Pak-China relations.
★ ​Economic Collaborations
★ projects in terms of Pak-China cooperation are focused on four areas: 1) energy projects, 2)
transport infrastructure, 3) building of the Gwadar port and 4) industrial cooperation
★ Major energy projects include construction of a 300-megawatt solar power plant by the Chinese
company, Zonergy, and the work on 16 other energy projects has been initiated
★ In terms of transport infrastructure, reconstruction and upgradation of the KKH, within Pakistan,
is underway, and the construction of the Karachi-Lahore Motorway also started in March 2016
★ Regarding the progress on the Gwadar port, Pakistan handed over 280 hectares of land-use
rights to a Chinese company for a term of 43 years on November 11, 2015
★ Lastly, the Chinese projects in Pakistan under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
have employed Pakistani workers, showing that the close relationship between the two countries has
already moved from the policy announcement to the project implementation stage.
★ ​Gwadar Deep Seaport
★ The Gwadar port is situated at the entrance of oil riched Persian Gulf region, around 234 nautical
miles west of Karachi and around 390 nautical miles east of the Gulf of Hormuz. The Gwadar port is 80
km away from Iran’s border5 and is located in close proximity to the Chahbahar port of Iran. situated
outside the Straits of Hormuz, which serves as a vital conduit for the international oil supplies in the
region.6 It is situated close to three vital regions of the world, i.e., the Middle East, South Asia and Central
Asia.
★ A revolutionary moment came in the history of Pakistan when former Prime Minister of Pakistan,
Feroz Khan Noon, purchased it in September 1958, in return for a payment of three million pound sterling
after the approval of Sultan Said Bin Taimur, integrating Gwadar into Pakistan.7 Since then constructing a
port at Gwadar had been under consideration
★ 1992, Pakistan decided to build a port at Gwadar 8 and in 1993, it started feasibility studies for
the development of the port.9 Finally, in 2001, when China agreed to contribute in the construction of the
Gwadar port, major steps were taken by Pakistan to turn its dream into a reality.
★ 60 per cent of oil for China comes from the Gulf States through ships which travel over 16,000 km
in two to three months, facing various risks. While through Gwadar distance will be reduced to around
2,500 km and the port can be used throughout the year.
★ March 2002, Pakistan signed an agreement with the Chinese Harbour Construction Cooperation
and both states agreed to construct a port at Gwadar
★ , it assured opening of China towards the Indian Ocean and strengthened Pakistan’s naval
defence mechanism for the reason that in the event of war with India, the Gwadar port will provide
strategic depth to Pakistan
★ On March 15, 2008, the Gwadar port began its cargo handling. However, the port was officially
inaugurated by the Government of Pakistan on December 21, 2008
★ The development of the second phase of the port has yet to start that includes “four containers
berth, one bulk cargo terminal and one-grain terminal
★ construction of “one Ro-Ro terminal and two oil terminals to handle 200,000 DWT ships.
★ economic corridor will drive Pakistan towards transforming itself into a regional economic hub
★ The Gwadar port will be linked via railway and road networks for enhancing trade between the
regional countries. The economic corridor also includes the construction of oil and gas pipelines in the
long-run with the objective of attracting investments in various sectors13 and fulfilling the energy
requirements of Pakistan and China besides other states
★ By 2015, Pakistan and China also finalised a formula for linking the Gwadar port with western
China within few years. China will also invest heavily in Pakistan for assuring smooth implementation of
the CPEC.1
★ The CPEC will enable China to trade with the different regions through economic option.
★ ​i. Current Port Facilities
★ ​ii. Additional Projects
★ coastal highway construction, connecting Karachi and Gawadar port with Iran. For that purpose,
work on the coastal highway connecting the Gwadar port with Karachi has already been completed
★ up-gradation of the KKH; strategy of construction of railway line connecting Gwadar with China;
schemes for energy cooperation and pipelines development; plans for establishment of industrial zone;
enhancing arrangements for oil storage and refining facilities adjacent to the port; plan of massive capital
injection into expansion of the port and energy projects; working on necessary facilities of fresh water
treatment and water supply; construction of Gwadar International Airport and boosting of tourism and
hotel industries
★ ​iii. Significance of Gwadar Port
★ Gwadar deep seaport development strengthened the relations between Pakistan and China
★ Pakistan has around 38 million tons of trade, and out of it about 95 per cent goes through the
Arabian Sea ─ Indian Ocean. Port Qasim handles 32 per cent and Karachi port handles around 68 per
cent, of all seaborne trade. It is predicted that in near future shipping activities will increase at existing
ports and the total trade will rise to more than 91 million tons in coming years.19 The Gwadar port will
definitely share the burden of the two ports very soon.
★ The Gwadar port provides easy and shortest outlet to China, towards the Gulf States and the
African region... alternate route for the Chinese trade in case the Strait of Malacca in the Indian Ocean is
blocked by the US.
★ China has been keen to construct an oil pipeline from Gwadar port to the western province of
China so as to transform Gwadar into energy corridor, which will also work for the development of the
Xinjiang province
★ The Gwadar port can acquire the status of a gate to Strait of Hurmoz, hence, it can compete with
the Iranian and the UAE port
★ The Gwadar port provides strategic depth to Pakistan Navy in case Port Qasim and Karachi port
are encircled by the Indian naval forces. Pakistan with its weak economy and limited resources cannot
match the naval strength of India and looks towards China to play a balancing role in the Indian Ocean
★ The Gwadar port’s success will provide a chance to the masses of “Balochistan to improve the
living conditions in their province
★ geostrategic location of the Gwadar port places it at a much advantageous position than other
ports, like the Iranian Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar port, Salalah port of Oman and Dubai’s Jebel Ali
ports.2
★ x Gwadar is situated at the strategic junction of three regions, namely South Asia, West Asia and
Central Asia zone
★ ​Saindak Project
★ The Saindak project became another milestone in Pak-China friendship, through the reserves of
Pakistan and high-tech expertise of China, both have been exploring gains
★ The Saindak mines of gold and copper are situated in the district of Chaghi, Balochistan. During
the 1970s, with the assistance of the Chinese engineering firm copper deposits at Saindak were
discovered and in 1975, the feasibility study of Saindak project took place. The Saindak mine was
expected to have ore deposits of around 412 million tons24 and per ton holding on normally around “0.5
gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver.”
★ With the funding of Pakistan in 1995, production of copper and gold from Saindak mine started.
The project was set up by a Pakistani owned company, named Saindak Metals Ltd., at a cost of PKR13.5
billion
★ The copper was to be refined in China, it was also recommended that a refinery should be
constructed at Saindak but no progress has been made on this as yet
★ In 2002, Pakistan called foreign investors to invest in the Saindak project. The Metallurgical
Corporation of China (MCC) Ltd., showed keen interests in the project and it was granted on lease for ten
years which was to last in October 2012
★ After restarting the work on the Saindak project in early 2001, the MCC kept the principle of
employing locals of Balochistan and gave special priority to people living in Chaghai
★ ​Security Cooperation
★ The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative and its flagship project, the CPEC, has expanded
bilateral strategic and cooperative partnership to a more inclusive framework
★ The bilateral relations rose between the two from ‘All weather friendship” to “all-weather strategic
cooperation partners.”
★ ” This bilateral relationship is grounded in common strategic and security interests and concerns,
like global terrorism and maritime security.
★ ​Al-Khalid Tank
★ Pakistan’s Main Battle Tank (MBT), Al-Khalid, jointly developed by China and Pakistan is
basically a hybrid tank; made with armament arrangements, subsystems designed through modification
and unification of several international means
★ Al Khalid tank’s direct “lineage stems from the Chinese NORINCO Type 90-II MBT.its indirect
lineage can be traced back to the Soviet T-54 series
★ ​Civil Nuclear Cooperation
★ Civil nuclear cooperation is another dimension of Pak-China friendly relations. During the early
1990s, China agreed to construct Chashma-1, a 325 MW nuclear power plant, which after completion
became operational in 2000.
★ China affirmed that it has been involved in around six nuclear power ventures in Pakistan and is
expected to export more reactors, representing that civilian nuclear collaboration between Pakistan and
China will progress despite concerns of various countries at regional and at the international levels
★ Unlike the Indo-US nuclear deal, Pak-China nuclear collaboration is only for power generation
and has a permissible cover before the laws of two states. Moreover, the nuclear collaboration between
the two states started before the Chinese membership in NSG or even the NPT. After becoming an NGS
member in 2004, China has voluntary followed the NGS rules, despite extensive and traditional nuclear
relations with Pakistan. Various NSG states may raise their objections towards PakChina nuclear
collaborative arrangements, however, they cannot force China from stepping back from exporting the
reactors to Pakistan.61 When no legal grounds could be presented against Pak-China nuclear
collaboration, then a movement was initiated with the objective of blaming that Pakistan was going to use
those kinds of Chinese built reactors, which are yet to be tested. In reality, China is constructing the new
scheme before the US could and China is expected to become the main state in the world that uses
innovative reactor designs and test them.
★ ​Latest Developments
★ The CPEC is an extension of Chinese anticipated 21st century Silk Road initiative. This is one of
China’s major investments and the CPEC is predictably a strategic game changer in the entire region. For
Pakistan, it will be a source of becoming an economically stable state, as the economic corridor will
accelerate the movement of goods and services in the region.66 According to the Prime Minister of
Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, “we welcome China’s vision of the OBOR, and the CPEC announced during
Chinese President’s visit to Pakistan, which will spur regional economic integration and bring prosperity to
the entire region and beyond.”67 Thus, the economic corridor will not only provide a short trading route to
China, but it will also help her in fulfilling the energy requirements in a risk-free manner from the Gulf
states. Likewise, it can also become a turning point in the prosperity and progress of the western province
of China Xinjiang, which will help China to emerge as an economic giant. The CPEC is a significant
venture in the history of PakChina relations and it is seen as the Silk Road Economic Belt over the land
network that joins the Maritime Silk Road in Sea
Modi’s Kashmir Policy: The Probable Consequence for the Security of South Asia

● India’s decision to pursue an aggressive foreign policy to subdue Pakistan and its tactic to
implement such policy entails a perilous course of action. The dangerous brinksmanship between the
states since the last two years along the Line of Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary could lead to
disastrous consequences. The US’s ever increasing cooperation with India and its lukewarm response to
Islamabad’s call, is yet another factor, which encourages New Delhi to adopt an offensive behaviour
towards Pakistan. Modi’s Kashmir policy has resulted in failure, causing despondency among the people
of the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK). Modi’s rigid approach towards Pakistan and the people of IOK
continues to irk the Indo-Pak relations. India’s absurd policy towards Pakistan has rather compelled
Islamabad to resist, which faded the flexibility and goodwill towards New Delhi shown by it during the past
ten years. An unresolved Kashmir issue is a historical fact, which cannot be sidelined and ignored for too
long. Even a minor miscalculation by India, in pursuit of its foreign policy objectives for undermining
Islamabad’s will to resist, could put the entire region in trouble. India and the international community
should, therefore, realise that none of the strategies other than ‘dialogue’ involving all the stakeholders
would succeed in resolving the long pending issues including the core issue of Jammu and Kashmir
(J&K).
● Ambassador Inam ul Haque, considers Pakistan’s Kashmir policy as a “prisoner of the
circumstances.”1 It is perceived that India became the key beneficiary of the 9/11 incident that slowed
down the momentum of ‘Azadi’ (Independence) struggle being pursued by the Kashmiri people. It also
succeeded in isolating the Kashmiris through a well-structured narrative of declaring their Azadi struggle
as an act of terrorism.
● Azadi suffered setbacks due to the presence of around 700,000 Indian troops in the Valley
● Delhi has failed to consolidate its gains in the IOK. It is this very reason that India continues to
maintain a large military presence in the Valley
● It is believed that being realist, the Indian leadership has never been sincere towards resolution of
the Kashmir issue
● 50 years have brought hopelessness for the people of the IOK. Instead of moving a step forward,
India’s rigid approach created a climate of mistrust and suspicion, which continue to grow thicker
● Contrary to the ‘go slow policy’ of the Indian National Congress (INC) led government, Modi
decided to follow a different approach on the Kashmir issue
● In his election manifesto, Modi promised to reintegrate Kashmir into the India Union by doing
away Article 370 of the Indian Constitution
● It gained enough power to manipulate Mehbooba Mufti’s government in the IOK. Yet, since the
BJP could not establish its stronger foothold in the Valley,
● the historic decision given by the J&K High Court on the status of Kashmir has pushed Modi’s
desire into the backyard. 9
● Modi’s fast track policy on Kashmir has caused damage to India for two main reasons: First,
Islamabad has been able to shed away the international pressure, which made the Kashmir issue
reemerged again as one of its priority foreign policy agenda after staying in the backyard for over one
decade.
● Second, Modi is no more in the driving seat in the IOK. His policy has helped Kashmiri freedom
fighters unite. Mufti, as the Chief Minister, might still like to stay in India’s fold, but she seems losing grip
over her people.
● In the aftermath of the cold-blooded murder of Burhan Muzaffar Wani, a wave of carnage, no-one
had expected, had been unleashed across the IOK
● “in a rare sight, even school girls are throwing stones and hitting police vehicles.
● The authors are of the view that Modi’s regime is being misled by its establishment and media.
His intelligentsia encouraged him to exploit Pakistan’s internal issues and its economic problems. As a
planned strategy, India continues to persuade the anti-state elements to destabilise Pakistan by providing
them with arms and logistics support in close collaboration with Afghan intelligence agencies
● strengthened Islamabad’s resolve to harden its stance over the Kashmir
● ​BJP’s Kashmir Policy
● strategy used by the Congress to gain time had been different from that of the BJP
● “the BJP is a rightleaning, Hindu nationalist party. It is the first major party to mobilise overtly on
the basis of religious identity and to adopt a clearly anti-Muslim stance
● Despite the BJP’s anti-Muslim stance, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was a very clear-headed politician,
who wanted to take the peace process forward so as to end the permanent confrontation with Pakistan
● under the leadership of Vajpayee, the BJP took extraordinary steps to resume talks both with
Pakistan and with Kashmiri separatists and put in place a number of Confidence Building Measures
(CBMs) including a ‘free and fair’ election
● Nevertheless, during the 2004 election campaign, the BJP took a hard stance against Pakistan
and Kashmiri separatists and went back to its original position of opposing Article 370 though, they lost
the election
● Curtis appreciated Singh for his good work in keeping South Asia away from serious tension.
● comparison of the three Indian leaders namely Vajpayee, Singh and Modi. He viewed that due to
coalition governments, other two leaders had limitations because they were to look left and right to seek
support but Modi does not have any. Today, “I feel a bit like we are in the pre-96 days …baatcheet ho
sakti hai, politics ho sakti hai, which is what Kashmiris since 1990 have been looking for.” But in reality,
“either the clock has stopped somewhere or we’ve moved back a bit,” said Daulat.2
● Ever since Modi took over as the Prime Minister of India, his slogans of regional economic
development and integration were overshadowed by his policies to enhance India’s defence capabilities.
● New Delhi is involved in coercive diplomacy aimed at persuading Pakistan to give up its
independent foreign policy including that of policy on Kashmir.2
● The new US administration has also committed to strengthening its relationship with India to
protect their common strategic interests in the Indian Ocean and the Asia Pacific region
● He wished to “secure a permanent seat for India at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC);
membership of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG); rebalancing in Asia Pacific; dominance in the Indian
Ocean; hegemony in the South Asia Association for Regional Coopertaion (SAARC) region; competition
with China and confrontation with Pakistan.”
● found involved in espionage activities inside Pakistan.24 In this regard, an undercover RAW
agent Kulbushan Jadhav, a serving naval officer from the Indian Navy, who has been arrested from
Balochistan during March 2016, has already confessed India’s involvement in destabilising Pakistan
● Modi-led government has opened up multiple fronts against Pakistan. During the last two years,
India has been violating ceasefire agreement along the LoC and the Working Boundary and killed and
injured many innocent people
● Modi’s strategy appears to be “waiting for Pakistan to blink on Kashmir,” says Ali Ahmed.32
● Ufa has replaced the Composite Dialogue with a new line-up of bilateral meetings
● Pakistan, which is already involved in combating terrorism since 9/11. During October-November
2015, India conducted large scale combat exercises in Rajasthan sector, involving almost the entire
Southern Army Command including 21st Corps, one of the three ‘Strike Corps’ of the Indian army
● ​Modi’s Strategy to Win Public Support
● By playing an anti-Muslim card successfully, Modi became a popular leader and got elected as
the Chief Minister of Gujrat.43 To maintain his popularity graph, he replicates the same strategy as the
Prime Minister of India. As a result of his domestic policies, “Muslims are terrorised and other religious
groups, too, as are secularists. The situation can only be called fascist,” said Himani Bannerji
● aggressive approach towards Pakistan, a strategy which is easily acceptable within the Indian
society.
● “Hindutva stands as the ideology and political philosophy of a group of militant anti-minority Hindu
organisations
● BJP is considered “as the parliamentary wing of a Hindu Nationalist Movement that has already
succeeded in radically changing the Indian political culture for the worse.”
● Indian society has been communally polarised “with increasing threats and terrorising of religious
minorities.
● Modi’s regime is adamant to turn India into the supremacist ‘Hindi Rashtra,’ where minorities are
being reduced to the status of a second-class citizen in the same line as the Jew had been under the
Fuhrer
● Modi stands accused of encouraging this culture by turning a blind eye to the growing religious
fanaticism in India.50 It is believed that with the existing policy, Modi might be able to gain some
short-term goals but in the long-term, India might suffer a domestic collapse
● Thus, in order to make any rapprochement towards Pakistan, Modi would wish to secure the
conviction of Mumbai attackers in Pakistan
● of the consequences of Jadhav’s execution.5
● Modi and his party certainly relies on antiMuslim rhetoric as their strength to exercise political and
social control within the country, therefore, he is also compelled not to extend cooperation towards
Pakistan, fearing that if he does so, it might fire back domestically
● ​Revival of Pakistan’s Kashmir Policy: Impact on Indo-Pak Relations
● “Zardari went to the extent of saying that a solution to Kashmir could wait but there must be
movement on other fronts like promoting trade, people-topeople contact and a friendly relationship with
India.”58
● In order to promote economic agenda of Pakistan, Sharif did try to maintain soft corner towards
India. Because of his lenient approach, he succeeded in engaging India through ‘Composite Dialogue’
process, which was subsequently derailed after the Kargil episode
● By participating in Modi’s oath-taking ceremony, Sharif made another attempt to re-establish
peace with India by focusing on economic ties with it.
● Notwithstanding, at the international forums, Sharif as Prime Minister of Pakistan, has always
been taking a solid stance on the Kashmir issue.
● In general, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) continued to express solidarity with the
people of Kashmir. The OIC extended its support to their right to self-determination.66 Recently, Turkish
President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, also offered his services to mediate on the Kashmir issue and
suggested the two sides to resolve the dispute bilaterally through talks. But India out-rightly rejected the
offer made by President Erdogan.67 I
● Thus, the state of security along the LoC and the Working Boundary, are volatile. Similarly, since
Kashmiri youth has taken decision to lead the Azadi struggle, the security condition inside the IOK has
gone from bad to worst
● It is believed that India’s wishful thinking of fighting and winning a limited conventional war
against Pakistan is unlikely to succeed. Currently, Pakistani conventional forces are sufficiently strong
enough to defend itself against India’s limited war without involving its nuclear forces. In this regard,
Ambassador Haq opined that India’s chances of winning a conventional war against Pakistan “now are
very remote at best.”7
● One-sided sincerity and restrain would not work for long. If the two sides wish to contain the risk
of escalation, New Delhi must stop its military bureaucracy from initiating uncalled firing along the LoC
and the Working Boundary. By resuming multi-dimensional talks on long-pending issues, the paranoia
chances of war could be reduced and steadily eliminated. ii Unlike Ufa statement, the engagement in
future should be symmetrical and sustainable. For that “simultaneous engagement on all disputes,
including those of security, political and economic nature is a must.”76 iii Pakistan should not be very
keen to talk with India. It should rather focus its energies on internal security and economic stability
because, without economic stability, even Kashmiris might not be too eager to join Pakistan. iv The future
dialogue strategy of Pakistan with India should be sure footed. Also, and Kashmiris are the main
stakeholders, therefore, they must be made part of any future dialogue process. v Monitoring mechanism
along the LoC and the international border need to be strengthened. In this regard

Pak-Afghan Relations (2001-2017): A Prisoner’s Dilemma Analysis

● Pak-Afghan relations in post-Taliban era are a narration of mistrust and a display of the Prisoner’s
Dilemma. Despite Pakistan’s efforts to maintain good neighbourly relations, it is being blamed for chaotic
situation in Afghanistan, providing safe havens for miscreants in FATA, sponsoring terrorism and suicide
bombing in the latter. On the other hand, Pakistan is also suspicious of Afghanistan’s India-centric
policies, which results in insurgency and unrest in FATA, Balochistan and different parts of the country.
Despite several commonalities and both being allies in the war against terrorism, the trust gap however is
so broad that both the countries cannot decipher their disagreements bilaterally. Resultantly, both have
become a recipe of never ending violence and allowing regional powers to interfere in their affairs and
exploit the situation to their own advantage. Pak-Afghan relations cannot afford mistrust and hostility,
which has repeatedly caused negative repercussions on their relations. The paper employs Prisoner’s
Dilemma approach to examine the nature of Pak-Afghan relations and draw a conclusion for trust building
via its repeated reciprocal strategies. In addition, the theoretical framework explains that reciprocal
strategies, if adopted, will enable Pakistan and Afghanistan to break Prisoner’s Dilemma, sustain trust
and convert their limited cooperation into full cooperation based on mutual trust
● Pak-Afghan relations revolve around the central theme of trust and mistrust.
● In Pak-Afghan relations mistrust rather than trust remained a dominant and mutual phenomenon
● For most part of Pakistan’s independent history, relations with Afghanistan have been
problematic, characterised by recurrent mutual suspicions which most of the times are noticeable in the
policies of interference and even in attempts at undermining cooperative measures.1
● Pakistan recognised the first democratically elected Hamid Karzai’s government, offered aid and
expressed its desire for establishing friendly relations
● However, the nature of relationship between them showed fragility, marked by heightened
mistrust and a situation of dilemma.
● . Relations improved after Ashraf Ghani succeeded Hamid Karzai on September 21, 2014
● Pak-Afghan relations were moving smoothly until these were impacted by terrorists’ attacks in
August 2015 in Afghanistan
● The Afghan government pointed a finger towards Pakistan and blamed it for not being honest in
establishing friendly relations, which upset the rapprochement process.
● Both Pakistan and Afghanistan see each other in a zero-sum relationship where the gain of one is
the loss of the other
● The Prisoner’s Dilemma represents a situation of conflict in which the two actors interacting with
each other have to opt for a rational choice i.e., cooperation or defection
● They are seeking security but any concrete steps for bringing peace and security are lacking on
their part and a lack of harmony and defection is dominan
● In karzai’s time, both banned each others channels
● The resurgence of the Taliban, the Afghanistan-India nexus, various internal and external security
issues faced by Karzai’s government and the deteriorating law and order situation in Pakistan deepened
mistrust
● President Ghani adopted a policy of rapprochement towards Pakistan. For that purpose, he
deferred the execution of the strategic partnership agreement with India; he sought close ties with
Pakistan’s security establishment and introduced initiatives to ease Pakistani concerns over cross-border
terrorism
● Pakistan, in turn, managed to bring the Taliban representatives to the negotiation table in Murree
on July 7, 2015.The Heart of Asia Conference was held in Islamabad on December 6, 2015
● Afghan government-Taliban peace process derailed after the announcement of the death of
Mullah Omar, the former Afghan Taliban leader
● President Ghani started blaming Pakistan for a series of terror acts in Afghanistan which strained
the already fragile relations. This highlighted quotient of mistrust and created the Prisoner’s Dilemma
● In bilateral relations cooperation without sufficient trust is possible which can be converted into
full cooperation and win-win situation by employing right strategies
● In Pak–Afghan case, there is limited cooperation in diplomatic, economic and security fields but
without sufficient trust defection is dominant
● According to the Prisoner’s Dilemma cooperation is always limited because of mistrust,
uncertainty and lack of communication
● transit trade facility to Afghanistan under the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement (ATT).
● Nevertheless, these efforts must be capitalised upon through complete cooperation with mutual
trust and understanding. Such a development will help to stabilise the security and economic situation in
both the countries as well as break the Prisoner’s Dilemma.
● It aims to understand the concept of mistrust in bilateral relations in the light of the Realist school
of thought, which is the root cause of Prisoner’s Dilemma
● The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a situation of conflict, which shows why, states or individuals opt
whether or not to cooperate. In Prisoner Dilemma, if actors cooperate, they both receive a payoff. If one
cooperates and the other does not, the cooperating player receives the smallest possible payoff, and the
defecting player the largest. If both players do not cooperate, they receive a payoff, but it is less than what
they would gain if both had cooperated. 7 Defection dominated their relationship in the period under study
in contrast to cooperation.
● ​Prisoner’s Dilemma and Mistrust
● Mistrust is the thinking that the other actor is determined to take advantage of one’s cooperation
rather than repaying it
● The Cold War period can best explain the phenomena where mistrust was the root cause of a
conflict between the US and the Soviet Union, therefore, they resorted to offensive measures against
each other
● , therefore, they resorted to offensive measures against each other. States can live peacefully if
both the actors show consent. On the contrary, if they believe that the other side has some hidden
agenda and is unwilling to cooperate it leads to conflicts and anarchy. 8 Mistrust can hinder cooperation
among groups just as it can between two individuals.
● Scholars such as Thucydides, Hobbes and Herz has emphasised the anarchical nature of world
politics which creates mistrust among states, prevents cooperation and creates the Prisoner’s Dilemma
● Thucydides’ argument that, “what made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the
fear which this caused in Sparta
● Scholars have analysed different reasons of mistrust between the states. Thomas Hobbes’
analysis of human nature as being selfish, aggressive and insecure when applied to International
Relations (IR) portrays states as selfish, aggressive and insecure as they are organismic entities.
● The pursuit of security and the maximisation of power at the expense of other states causes
mistrust, uncertainty and leads the states to enter into arms race, lowering their trust level even if they
want to cooperate with each other
● The adversary’s military power, geography and its aims and objectives are the underlying
factors... It compels states to adopt hard line policies, which often have disastrous consequences.
● However, in the later part of the Cold War structural realist like Kenneth Waltz held international
system responsible for anarchy among states. According to him, international system is anarchical and
uncertainty is a common phenomenon. Therefore, there is little room for trust. In such circumstances, a
state is responsible for its own well being and existence as no other power will come to guarantee its
existence. Waltz’s structural realism gives birth to two concepts i.e., offensive and defensive realism,
giving useful accounts of trust and mistrust.
● Hardcore realists or offensive realists believe that there is a deeprooted, incoercible mistrust
between states that prevents states from cooperation and causes conflicts.Offensive realists hold that
parity of power is responsible for insecurity and mistrust.14 They view mistrust as a permanent feature of
international relations, which shapes the behaviour of the states and compels them to maximise their
power at the cost of other states.
● Defensive realists such as Jervis do not consider mistrust a static phenomenon and rather calls it
a changeable phenomenon. At one point of time, it is high enough to maintain cooperation, they believe
that some states trust each other enough to cooperate and enter into agreements and can have normal
relations. While there are other states who have deeprooted mistrust of each other which leads to security
dilemma.15 Strictly speaking, soft core realists or defensive realists believe that states do not trust each
other because of anarchic world system and uncertainty about the intentions of other countries but they
can achieve cooperation on the bases of reciprocity. Signals of good intentions, monitoring each other’s
actions and retaliation against defection or cheating can compel them to cooperate. 16
● ​Pak-Afghan Relations in the Light of the Prisoner’s Dilemma
●
● Interdependent on each other (‘in Jail’ together), their desire is to maximise their gains, without
any concern for the other, which ends up in zero-sum game.
● ​Herein lies the dilemma. The idea of comparative gains and protecting oneself against the
other compels them towards security dilemma leading to the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Both countries
use all means to attain their objectives that lack cooperation. Each actor takes independent
decisions; they do not have complete information about the other actor’s intentions and
uncertainty remains dominant. Under the Prisoner’s Dilemma, strategy of the states emanates
from their past experiences of mistrust which prevent them from bilateral cooperation.
● There is limited cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Individual rationality dominates
which makes them more selfish and less cooperative, resulting in trust deficit. Collective rationality ─
good for all ─ takes a back seat as cooperation is suspected to result in losses than a win-win situation for
both the neighbours.
● The entrenched cause of their dilemma has been the Durand Line issue and Afghanistan’s claim
over Pakistani territory. This historical legacy affected even the post-Taliban era, as Karzai’s government
refused to validate the Durand Line. Afghanistan believes that it was signed with British India, not with the
government of Pakistan and rejects its legal status. Pakistan, on the other hand, has always considered
Durand Line a settled issue.
● It is also important to note that both Pakistan and Afghanistan desire to overcome their
long-standing deadlocks but are entangled in a manner that has restricted them to move forward on
various fronts. Moreover, the policy makers and the society in Pakistan and Afghanistan are such that the
conflicts between the two countries are seen as a ‘zero-sum’ game.
● Moreover, in the past and during the period under study, both the countries interfered in each
other’s politics and provides support to the dissident groups on quid-pro-quo. Pakistan is suspicious that
Afghanistan was providing support to Baloch and Pashtun nationalists while Afghanistan blames that
Pakistan provided support to Islamists and relied on religious slogans and leaders, which further
deteriorated their relations resulting in mistrust
● Accusations and counter-accusations without taking into account that collective rationality
worsens the dilemma in their relations. Confrontational posture in the shape of blame game, accusations
and counter accusations proved a set back and created dilemma
● Pakistan in the above-mentioned period did take some measures i.e., established check posts,
proposed fencing and mining, which were rejected by Karzai as his government did not recognise the
Durand Line.
● Both sought alliances with different countries to protect their interests. Afghanistan got closer to
India, which is Pakistan’s main adversary in the region. For Pakistan, Afghanistan is a strategic base to
counter India from hurting her interests in oil rich Central Asian Republics (CARs). On the contrary, a
compliant pro-Indian Afghan regime would exert pressure on Pakistan thus resulting in Pakistan’s
strategic encirclement. Karzai government allowed India to establish consulates in the provinces near
Pak-Afghan border
● Afghanistan gave India greater role, which increased Pakistan’s security dilemma. As a result,
Pakistan decries for a minimum Indian role limited to reconstruction only. This behaviour on the part of
both disrupts cooperation
● Therefore, Pakistan and Afghanistan have two choices either to pursue cooperation (stop
propaganda, blame game, and give more concession) or pursue hostile relations (interfere in each other’s
internal affairs), which will significantly destabilise both the countries. On the other hand, if both countries
remain committed to cooperation, this will result in large pay-offs and increased economic activity.
Another scenario is that, if one country tries to cooperate and the other country adopts a policy of
antagonism, the cooperative country will be punished greatly whereas the non-cooperative country will
align itself with other countries and will see internal improvements. Defection as explained earlier is the
dominant strategy. Engaging them into cooperation is a complicated task but it is the only way out for their
stable relations in the future.
● ​Can Pakistan and Afghanistan Break the Prisoner’s Dilemma
● Development of trust is a rational task and cannot be built in a shorter span of time, as a lot of risk
taking and anxiety management is required on the part of the trusting actor. Countries can benefit from
cheating only in the short run. They cannot benefit from cheating in a long-term relationship. The best
option is to alter the pay-off and make defection less attractive by applying reciprocal strategies where
both countries can copy each other’s cooperative actions. Cooperation may be sustained through
strategies such as reciprocity and reassurance
● People-to-people contact between Pakistan and Afghanistan including artists, musicians,
journalists, traders, researchers may pave path for talks on entrenched issues i.e. water rights,
smuggling/drug trafficking, transit trade etc
● In addition, reciprocity in trade relations, giving each other trading benefits can further augment
their relations
● Another policy, which emphasises repeated interaction and builds trust, is the policy of
reassurance. To build trust, the reassurance policy emphasises more on formal and informal institutions.
Future wars or conflicts cannot be avoided. They will be caused by bad structural and institutional
arrangements. Pak-Afghan conflict can be avoided through the use of institutions, which will mediate
between them and look for long term benefits