SEIR MODEL of COVID-19

GROUP 305
Edeline CLARISSA, Tomoka YAMADA, Wong Shan CHAN
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Background
Information
COVID-19: Impact on Global Business (September 2021)
COVID-19: Impact on Business in Latin America and the
Caribbean (LAC)
COVID-19: Impact on Education
 Mathematical
Models
SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) Model
SIER (Susceptible-Infectious-Exposed-Removed) Model
Classical SIR Model
Not yet infected Carries the disease
Immuned
population

Susceptible Infected Removed

Parameter Definition

𝛽 Probability of transmission of disease

𝛾 Recovery rate from I to R

N = S+I+R (constant number) Represents total population

General SEIR Model

Not at risk of At risk of Carries the Immuned

infection infection disease population

Susceptible Exposed Infected Removed

Parameter Definition

𝜎 Infected rate from E to I

More Complicated SEIR Model

Susceptible Exposed Infected Removed

Parameter Definition

𝜇 Death rate (assumption: 2)

𝑎 (or 𝜎) Transmission rate from from E to I

Modified SEIR Model

Parameter Definition

Probability of transmission of
𝛽₀
disease

Average number of contact

𝛽 = (𝛽₀×(1+𝑐𝑜𝑠(𝑡)))
(seasonal factor)
Research Plan
Assumptions:
The population is large enough to use our model
The death rate is equal to birth rate
The location considered has low migration rate
Transmission of infection only happens between human

Mathematical analysis of the SEIR Model

Numerical simulation of the SEIR Model
Methodology
Method
1. The Mathematical Properties of SEIR Model-Equilibrium Point
2. Disease-Free Equilibrium Point
3. Generalize-Endemic Equilibrium Point
4. Reproduction Number R0
5. Stability Analysis of SEIR Model
The Properties of SEIR Model-Equilibrium Point
Disease-Free Equilibrium Point
For I = 0 &
Disease-Free Equilibrium Point
For I = 0
Disease-Free Equilibrium Point
For I = 0

Disease-Free Equilibrium Point

is (N,0,0,0)
Generalize-Endemic Equilibrium Point
Suppose that I > 0
From equation (6) & (7)
Generalize-Endemic Equilibrium Point
Suppose that I > 0
From equation (5),(6) & (7)
Generalized-Endemic Equilibrium Point
Suppose that I > 0
Reproduction Number R₀
How to get R0 ?
Reproduction Number R₀
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model

Fo
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model
Classification Roots Signs Stability

Of Equilibrium Two Distinct Real Values Both + Unstable

Both - Stable
Points
One + one - Unstable

Repeated Values Both + Unstable

Both - Stable

Complex Values Alpha > 0 Unstable

Alpha < 0 Stable

Alpha = 0 Oscillatory
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model
Linearization (Nonlinear Systems) by Using Jacobian Matrix
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model
Eigenvalues (diagonal elements) in Jacobian matrix are lambdas to nonlinear
equations
Stability Analysis of SEIR Model

Stable because all lambdas are negative and R0 < 1 !!!

Stability Analysis of SEIR Model

stable when R₀ > 1 and I > 0

Results
Results
1. Simulations
a. Disease-Free Equilibrium Point
b. Endemic Equilibrium
2. Comparison to Real Data Results
1a. Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE)

Using these parameters,

Basic reproduction number R0 = 0.62 < 1

Disease-Free Equilibrium
1b. Endemic Equilibrium (EE)

Using these parameters,

Basic reproduction number R0 = 5.64 > 1

1b. Endemic Equilibrium (EE)
Using these parameters,

Basic reproduction number R0 = 5.64 < 1

Generalized-Endemic-Equilibrium Situation
Situation will converge to Endemic
Equilibrium
2. Comparison of SEIR Model and Real Data
Limitations and
Improvements
Limitations inSEIR Limitations in
Model Methodology
Too few variables Assumptions made to use SEIR model
Various unconsidered factors The number of population is made
Reinfection constant
Factors arising from society(eg. Everyone’s death rate is the same
Government’s measures) Human-to-human transmission
only

Are impossible in real life!

Improvements ofSEIR
Model
More variables
People undergoing treatment
Reinfected people
Vaccinated people
Effect of government’s measures
Improvements of
Methodology
Disease severity
Consider different birth rate, death
rate and migration rate
Source of infections
Conclusion
Conclusions of Mathematical Properties of SEIR Model

We obtained 2 equilibrium points: - Disease-Free Equilibrium - Endemic Equilibrium

When R0 ≤1, ODE system converge to Disease-Free EquilibriumE 0 = (N, 0 , 0 , 0)

asymptotically stable

When R0 > 1 and I > 0, the ODE system will converge to Endemic Equilibrium

No longer asymptotically stable and will periodically change over time

General Conclusion
Thank You