FMCG An integrated

Monitor
update of Vietnam
FMCG market
Based on Worldpanel data

Nov 2020 Updated to 11/10/2020 (P10’20)

Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam 1
 Executive summary
1. Economic indicators
Vietnam economy is on the pattern of
recovery in recent months, partly driven
5. Spotlight
by the rebound of retail sales of
consumer goods and the stability of CPI. Tet is the greatest opportunity for FMCG
players and retailers as total Tet sales
normally double that of a normal month.
Are there any changes observed in Tet
2021 because of the C-19 effects?

2. FMCG overview
FMCG growth slows down in
short term. The market is
projected to sustain a healthy 4. Retail landscape
growth of 8%-10% in 2020 for
in-home consumption. The growth of emerging channels
like online and minimarket
format has sped up the
development of modern retail.
3. Hot category
Packaged bread has thrived,
driven by the expansion of
consumer base and the increase
in volume consumption.
2
Vietnam macro economy
Vietnam’s economy has been affected by the pandemic, slowing down its growth rate compared to previous year.
However, it’s on the pattern of recovery in recent months, partly driven by the rebound of retail sales of consumer
goods and the stability of CPI.

GDP CPI Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

12.7

7.0 3.8
5.6
8.3
2.6
5.4
3.2
3.7 4.7
2.0 -2.5 2.8
0.4 2.8
1.2

2019 2020F Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 2019 YTD Oct Q1'20 Q2'20 O3'20 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20
2019 YTD Oct

Source: GSO 3
Key economic indicators
COVID-19 has a negative impact on FDI and business operations across industries in 2020. While export and import
manage to post a positive performance over the last 10 months.

FDI Export turnover of goods

DECELERATES
FDI in the 1st ten months of
+15.1% STILL GROW
However, agricultural,
+0.4%
(1st 10 months (1st 10 months
2020 is estimated about 2020 vs YA) forestry and fishery products
2020 vs YA)
23.5 billions USD. have been affected with a
decline in export value.

Suspended operations Import turnover of goods

INCREASE FLATTING
-19.4% Especially, those are enterprises
+4.7% Noticeably, consumer goods
(1st 10 months (1st 10 months
ceased for a certain period of show an increase (+6.5%)
2020 vs YA) 2020 vs YA)
time is up by 59%. from small base.

Source: GSO 4
 FMCG overview
FMCG growth slows down in short term, returning to single digit pace in both Urban 4 cities and Rural. Overall,
FMCG market is projected to sustain a healthy growth of 8%-10% for 2020.

% YoY FMCG Monthly Value Change

Urban 4 cities Rural
FY 2019 YTD P10’20

Tet
COVID
impact
Tet Impact
Impact
COVID
MCO Impact
MCO
+12.0%
+9.8%
+6.3% +8.6% 4%
6%

*MCO: Movement Control Order Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift 5
 Sector performance
Packaged Food sector has a remarkable year, driven by the significant increase of cooking & snacking categories.
The other sectors also achieve robust growth in both Urban 4 cities and Rural, except Beverage which is expected
to bounce back by exciting the market and consumers with new news and innovations.

% YoY Value Change across Sectors

25
Urban 4 cities

12 12 12 13
8 7
6 5
4
2 2

FY 2019

YTD P10’20

FMCG Dairy Beverages Packaged Foods Personal Care Home Care

Rural
15 15 16 14
11 12 11
9
7
5 4
0.4

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities & Rural Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift 6
 Hot categories
Packaged bread has thrived during the first 10 months of 2020, thanks to its convenience and nutrition as a meal
alternative. The category growth is partly driven by the expansion of consumer base and the increase in volume
consumption. There are room for packaged bread to further grow post pandemic by capturing new eating occasions.

Urban 4 cities

YTD P10’ 2020 vs YA

+69% 14 packs 38% 4.7 times

Packaged Bread
% Value growth Volume per buyer % Buyers Frequency

nearly x6 value +5% + 240k new +4%

growth of total FMCG households

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities Vietnam | Total FMCG excluding Gift 7
 Retail landscape
All shopping channels both traditional and modern trade perform well. Emerging channel formats such as online and
minimarkets continue growing share with a fast pace, which speeds up the development of modern retail.

Urban 4 cities % Value share across channels % YoY Value change across key channels

FY 2019 YTD P10'20

Street Shops
5.0 6.1
2.7 3.7
Wet Market 5.2
0.6 6.1 78
0.7
Specialty Stores 14.2 68
14.8
0.3
Pharmacy 0.4
8.8
6.1 50
Hyper & Super 8.9 8.8 43
Cash & Carry 33
25 24
Minimarket 18
14 13
Convenience Stores 10 9 7
54.0 52.9
3 2
Drug Stores
-1
Online -6
-10
Others
FY 2019 YTD P10'20 Drug Stores Online Pharmacy Minimarket Cash & Hyper & Wet Market CVS Street Shops
Carry Super

Emerging channels* including specialty stores, pharmacy, minimarkets, convenience stores, drug stores and online.

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities | Total FMCG excluding Gift 8
 Spotlight: How Tet 2021 will look like?
Tet is the greatest opportunity for FMCG players and retailers as total Tet sales normally double that of a normal
month, mainly driven by gifting. However, with the effects of C-19, are there any changes will be observed? Will FMCG
spend pick up thanks to more in-home occasions and will online channel further accelerate in the upcoming Tet?

Monthly value spend for FMCG Gifting plays an Top categories for Tet gifting % Change in total FMCG across channels
(including gift) important role in Tet (based on % occasion) during Tet (Excluding Gift)

76 Spend Transaction
Biscuits &
29% Cakes 58
45
Gifting 43

19
7 63 37 1
Beer
-1
-13
% Value share
-32

Tet 2018: Tet 2019: Tet 2020:

16 Feb 5 Feb 26 Jan
Carbonated
Soft Drink

Source: Worldpanel Division | Household Panel | Urban Vietnam 4 key cities | Total FMCG I Tet 2020 vs YA
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58 Vo Van Tan St., Dist. 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

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