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A Case Study: Updated Case History of India, with the impact of COVID-19 on
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JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY vol.2 (1) p.1-15
Accepted July, 2020

A Case Study: Updated Case History of India, with the impact of COVID-19
on Indian Economy
Deepshikha Kushwaha1, Deepika Purohit*, Parijat Pandey3, Mohammed Saif2, Prashant
Katiyar1
*Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences,Indira Gandhi University, Meerpur, Rewari – 123401, India
1,2
Department of Biochemistry and Biochemical Engineering, JIBB, SHUATS, Prayagraj-211007-U.P, India
3
Shri Baba Mastnath Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research Baba Mastnath University, Rohtak –
124001, India

Abstract

A novel Coronavirus (n-COV), previously known as SARS-CoV-2, the infectious disease is now

called COVID-19. COV was first time originated from Wuhan city in Hubei Province of China

has spread to so many counties across the world. The word “Corona” represents the appearance

of crown like-spike proteins on its outer surface. This study is focused on current Indian scenario

relevant to COVID-19 case history. India’s first case of COVID-19 was arisen in Thrissur

district of Kerala on Jan 30,2020 and within next 41 days, the tally of 50th COVID-19 new

confirmed cases was found in the 19 cities of India. Up to 2nd may, 2020 confirmed cases tally

were increased to 26,167 (70.42%) and mostly cases arise from Maharashtra and Gujarat states

of India. Still epidemic state of India is in under control than US and other developed countries

of the world, only had 2% reported COVID-19 cases and 1.5% of the number of death cases was

found. The Coronavirus outbreaks is disrupting the Indian economy adversely due to lockdown,

and focused on to setting up a new structural reform and invest on infrastructure projects to

relive out by COVID-19 impact. The current study aim to aware Indians about COVID-19

pandemic and take some safety measures in order to control the spread and transmission of virus

in Indian geographical regions.

Keywords Coronavirus, Infectious disease, Indian Economy, Pandemic, SARS-COV-2

 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

Introduction

Coronavirus belong to a Coronaviridae family in the Nidovi-rales order. A novel

coronavirus was identified as the cause by Chinese authorities on 7 January 2020 and was

temporarily named “2019-nCoV”. The most recently discovered coronavirus causes coronavirus

infectious disease, named as COVID-19 by WHO on 11th February 2020. The coronavirus

outbreak came to light on December 31, 2019 when China informed the World Health

Organisation of a cluster of cases of pneumonia of an unknown cause in Wuhan City [1] in

Hubei Province. Subsequently, the disease spread to more provinces in China, and to the rest of

the world. This study is focused on current Indian scenario relevant to COVID-19 case history.

The current study aim to aware Indians about COVID-19 pandemic and take some safety

measures in order to control the spread and transmission of virus in Indian geographical regions.

Literature survey

A newly discovered Coronavirus cause serious illness in animals (originated from Bat) [2], and

humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging

from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome

(MERS) [3] and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The WHO has now declared it a

pandemic. The previously known virus has been named SARS-CoV-2 [4] and the disease is now

called COVID-19. On 17 Nov 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was appeared from Hubei

Province of China. Then after on 4th January 2020, WHO announced on social media site it’s a

case of pneumonia with no cases of death is reported in Wuhan city, [5] in Hubei Province. After

publishing the first outbreak news on the virus on 5th Jan, 2020, WHO released a risk assessment

guideline to all countries, mentioning to detect the potential cases and preventive measures taken

by health workers recommending to avoid droplets and contact while contacting with infected
 Purohit et al.,(2020)

persons. On 13th Jan 2020, Chinese officials reported a first case outside of China and confirmed

a case of COVID-19 in Thailand. Immediately after this event, WHO officials visited to China

[6] to confirmed the evidence of human-human transmission, [7] and set up an emergency

committee under the health regulation (IHR,2005) to assess the 2019-n COVID outbreak

constituted a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) (World Health

Organization, 2020). WHO reported 7818 confirmed cases across the world, out of these, the

majority of them were from China and 82 cases were arises in 18 countries outside the China and

on the same date, WHO announced its risk assessment guidelines in a China and for the rest of

the world.

Structural view of COVID-19

The word “Corona” represents the appearance of crown like-spike proteins on its outer surface

[8], when visualized under electron microscopy, hence it was named as Coronavirus (CoVs). It is

enveloped with a single stranded positive sense RNA virus [9], approximately 26-32kb in length,

that is, known as largest RNA viruses. Structurally, CoVs have non-segmented genome, which

consists of two-large overlapping reading frame (ORFs), its two third region, translated to

replicase enzyme, further processed to form the 16 non-structural proteins and rest of the one-

third region form the structurally assembly of proteins, including the Spike (S), Envelope (E),

Membrane (M), and Nucleoprotein (N). A different lineage of CoVs are also encoded by a

number of lineage specific accessory proteins, thus CoVs classification is also based on it. All

these CoVs are further classified into four main genera based on structural organization and

genome expressions: Alpha-Cov, Beta-CoV, Gamma-CoV and Delta-CoV, Coronaviruses (Su et

al., 2016) has the ability to infect a wide variety of host such as avian, swine and humans. “H”

encodes the Human for HCoVs, under this category, Beta-CoV genera contain mostly HCoV and

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 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

further subcategorized into four descendants (A, B, C and D) are identified [10]. The Beta-CoV

class includes the sub-class: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus or (SARS-CoV),

Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) virus or (MERS-CoV), [11] and the COVID-19

causative agent SARS-CoV-2. Similar to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 also

attacks on lower respiratory organ systems, instead of this, it may also affect the kidney,

gastrointestinal tract, liver, heart and central nervous system leading to a multiple organ failure

[12]. Current research study suggested that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is the most infectious among

the category of SARS-CoVs.

Indian Geographical Spread of COVID-19 Cases

As per the report of the Economic Times, the first case of COVID-19 was arising in Thrissur

district of Kerala on Jan 30, 2020, which rises up to 3 new cases in a next couple of days, all

were students who had returned back to home from Wuhan, China. No significant rise in cases

was reported in the rest of Feb, 2020. But in next 41 days, the 50th COVID-19 confirmed cases

were reported on 10 March, 2020, among the 19cities including, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana,

Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir,

and Ladakh, as already reported in India Today Magazines. The number of cases, tally was

increased to 73 confirmed cases within two days, including 16 Italian nationals who were

diagnosed in Jaipur. Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR), reported a total of 15,404

samples was investigated, out of them, 14,514 individuals have been tested for SARS-CoV2 as

on 20th March, 2020. A total of 236 individuals have been tested positive among suspected cases

and contacts of known positive cases was reported by ICMR officials," a day after Indian

government has announced a lock down of up to 31 March,2020. And within 10 days, this tally

automatically increased to 1,991 positive cases with a total of death was 62, and total number of
 Purohit et al.,(2020)

discharged was 133 across in India, as report presented by [13], which can be defined in a

Table.1. Moreover, the date wise situation from 25th April to 2nd May of COVID-19 cases were

also represented in a Table.2 while Table.3 discussing about the world cases of COVID-19 tally

till 2nd May.

Table.1 Reported Cases outcome in India

Total number of Reported Active cases Recovered Deaths Migrated

cases till 2 may /Discharged
37,158 26,167(70.42%) 9,950 (26.8%) 1,218 (3.28%) 1
Table.1 represent the total tally cases of COVID-19 in an India up to 2nd May, 37,158 cases are reported, out of

them, 26,167 cases are confirmed/active cases and 1,218 of death and rest cases of 9,950 recovered cases and 1 case

of migrated was reported.

Table.2 Reported Status of COVID-19 Cases across India:

25 April- till 2 May Total number of Active cases Recovered Deaths

Reported cases /Discharged

25/04/2020 25,018 18,563 5,257 791

26/04/2020 26,285 20,920 5,365 824
27/04/2020 27,758 21,849 5,909 883
28/04/2020 29,405 22,758 6,647 931
29/04/2020 31,224 24,024 7,200 1005
30/04/2020 32,835 25,039 7,796 1,069
*1/05/2020 35,200 25,491 9,709 1,222

2/05/2020 37,691 26,416 10011 1,232

*Record 2,333 cases in a day, over 1,000 in Maharashtra alone.

Table.2 represents the weekly reported case status of COVID-19 in an Indian state, out of 32 states of India, 19

states were affected by COVs, out of them, Maharashtra and Gujarat states were severely affected. Approx. 2,333

cases arise in a single day in Maharashtra only.

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 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

Table.3 Reported Cases outcome in the world

Total number of Reported Active cases Recovered Deaths

cases till 2 may /Discharged
33,83,932 23,10,074 10,73,858 2,38,609
*No report of migrated cases (Geneva: WHO; 2020).

The Current Scenario of Indian states

In the year of 2020, COVID-19 cases were dramatically increased due to the lack of safety

awareness, social distancing among the Indian peoples. The COVID-19 spread rate in India is

lower than elsewhere, at the global level. On March 19, its estimated rate of transmission among

the Indian peoples was 1.7 on an average. After a few days later, exactly on march 26th the

transmission rate had to be raised to 1.81 but significantly lower than the countries like Iran and

Italy, estimated by mathematician [14]. On an average, every two and three persons were

infected by COVID-19, an estimated transmitted rate at the global level was reported by Lancet

published study. According to Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare sources reports the

transmission rate of COVID-19 cases is not yet through the communities in Indian states. Still

epidemic state of India is in under control than US, only had 2% reported COVID-19 cases and

1.5% of the number of death cases, following explanations are presented:

1. Delay in an epidemic struck in India than any other countries, impact a lot of on exponential

growth rate of cases.

2. India’s 46-day Lockdown successfully suppressed the epidemic state of COVID-19 abates.

3. India’s environment is supportive for Indian peoples rather than for COVID-19.

Indian Researcher’s had found the reason, with less population of an elderly old peoples, the

high temperature and humidity in India, wide spread BCG vaccination usage or having

resistance against malaria have less profound impact of pandemic outbreak in India [15].
 Purohit et al.,(2020)

Fig. (1) A Current Status of COVID-19 Cases in Indian States

Fig.1 depicts the current situation of Indian states, data from 19 states were shown, among them top 5 states are

mostly affected by COVID-19: Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. All the

confirmed, Cured and Death cases are represented as (Mean±SD). [16]

Looking towards the status of positive cases in an Indian state as depicted in a fig.1. Highlighting

the top three states of India were most affected by CoVs, they are as: Maharashtra, Gujarat, and

Delhi, instead of the rest of the states such as Rajasthan, Madya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar

Pradesh where situation is still under control till 5th May, 2020. The Indian government has

announced a 21-day nation-wide curfew from March 25, 2020, in order to control the spread of

the epidemic virus, and this curfew was continuing till 3rd May, 2020. Considering the precaution

[17], government had extended the lockdown further to 17th May, starting from 4th May,2020.

Meanwhile, Government had now released a new guideline, as per these guidelines, Country was

divided into three zones: red, orange and green zones. Red zones are designated as the hotspots,

[18,19] and no relaxations is given to people residing in those areas in comparison to those areas,

with less likely to be spread with virus. Furthermore, Indian officials reported the more than 46.4

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 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

thousand confirmed cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) were more likely up to May 5th, 2020.

Out of these, approx. 12.8 thousand patients were cured, while 1,571 cases of death. The number

of people infected with the Coronavirus was not limited, but it cross the borders of south Asian

country, because of these serious reasons, Indian government had taken serious and necessary

action to fight against CoVs. Globally, approx. 3.5 million active cases of the CoVs were

reported until the end of May 2020 [20].

Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Economy

An overall evaluation of the available data suggests that the lockdown is still continuing, an

Indian economic activity is likely to come in a virtual standstill mode. Indian Chief Economic

Advisor, K.V Subramanian [21], suggest that the GDP growth is likely to be in the range in

between 1-2% only in a first quarter of month (from April-June) due to industrial shut down

affecting an Indian economy, but it could pick up its speed when all the industrial and real state

is come in active state. India’s economic growth was severely affected by the COVs lockdown

[22]. Some of the leading sectors of India are worst affected and show the magnitude of its

Impact. eg. In Power sector, power demand has fallen sharply. As per data, on an average of

148,282 megawatts (MW) of demand is needed during the 1-22 March,2020, but it sharply fell

down to 122,025MW in between the March 23rd and April 23rd 2020, it would be estimated that

the overall decline of 17.7% in demand. Power demand sink figures are highlighted in a fig.2.

Moreover, after a CoVs outbreak, foreign investors pull out of a net sum of Rs 475 crore from

the Indian investment markets during the first week of July, 2020, which creates traction between

the global trade and pre-Budget expectation. Prior to this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were

agreed to net buyers for five consecutive months. FPIs invested a net Rs10,384.54 crore in June,
 Purohit et al.,(2020)

Rs 9,031.15 crore in May, Rs 16,093 crore in April, Rs 45,981 crore in March and Rs 11,182

crore in February into the Indian capital market.

As per latest literature data survey, FPIs had decided to draw out a net amount of Rs 3,710.21

crore from equities, but it will be invested Rs 3,234.65 crore in the debt-market during the first

quarter of July, which results in a net loss in profit value of Rs 475.56 crore as depicted from

fig.2. Investors sold stocks worth Rs 65,454 crore amid the March 2 and April 23, leading to a

sharp increase, in gold prices to 46,420per10gm, in order to protect capital. Thus, the Indian

capital markets fall below to 6% in the rupee value compare to the dollar. Fig.2

Fig.2 An economic fluctuation in a different section of Indian Capital Market from 2 nd March to 24th of April, 2020

[23].

The Coronavirus outbreak is disrupting the economy and credit market growth is declining

reaches to a highest to 7.20 from 6.14 indicating the poorest growth scenario in a nationwide,

low traffic/ transportation adversely affect the earning and expected to drift more to -43.74 in

between the 1st -23rd April this year, India’s 10 year bond yield with other countries is declined

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 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

from 6.35%-6.17% between the 2 March and 24 April, and reaches to lowest level hit 5.97% on

Friday 8th may due to an aggressive demand for the new 10-year note and expectations of higher

government revenues following a hike in the special additional excise duty on petrol and diesel

[24] prices. The Indian agencies had launched the latest report on amid the government's

announcement of graded relaxations for different COVID-19 hot spot zones during the

lockdown. Indian Credit Rating Agency [25] agency also counted GDP growth rate on the basis

of earlier expected economic forecast, it was a range, according to which the GDP may either

expand by 1 percent or contract by 1 percent in 2020-21 year. However, the Indian Government

underlined the step needed for new structural reforms and expedites work on infrastructure

projects to revive the economy reeling under the impact of COVID-19 outbreak [26]. In this

context, the Government of India will take a necessary and immediate action to set up their

response to identify, diagnose through the therapy and sensitive assay, to diminish the spread of

the virus among the Indian peoples and save their lives.

Future prospects

This study warranted to develop novel vaccines against this n-COVID-19 infection. Now, it’s

time to take immediate action to discover the innovative ways, in order to develop fast and

accurate diagnostic kit because initially, a COVs symptom is not easily recognizable in an

infected individual. Moreover, it needs to further analyze the drug data bank of previously

developed drugs, and necessary to design and develop more reproducible and easiest serological

assay eg. Immuno-therapeutics is the real demand at the global level.

 Purohit et al.,(2020)

Conclusion

This study concludes that the identification of a novel bat-borne COVs through the clarification

of the source and transmission mode of these infections is urgently needed to prevent from a

potential epidemic. Recommended WHO guidelines must be followed and maintain the isolation

ward for suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19. Furthermore, safety measures and care

including oxygen therapy, fluid and plasma therapy is needed for infected Indian peoples.

Nevertheless, before utilizing the previously discovered drugs for COVID-19 pneumonia

infected cases, a clinical efficacy and precautions should be taken. Appropriate, design of

diagnostic kit and serological assay need to be developed, so as to detect infections, in order to

stop the spread and transmission of COVs at the global scale.

Author’s Contribution

All authors substantially contribute well during the design, literature survey, and analysis and

data interpretation of the manuscript.

Conflict of Interest

All Authors’ declare no conflict of interest.

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 JOURNAL OF APPLIED BIOLOGY AND BIOENERGY

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