December 12, 2023

For Immediate Release

World Natural Fibre Update

December 2023

Natural Fibre Price Trends

• The nearby cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange (December 2023)
converted to dollars per kg ended November at $1.75, down 2% compared with the end
of October, and 10% lower than at the end of August.
(https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CTV23/overview)

Cotton futures rose almost continuously for two years between April 2020 and May 2022
and reached $3.11 per kg, a change of $2 per kg in 25 months. Prices plunged by nearly
50% over the next five months, dropping by $1.52 per kg, and finished October 2022 at
$1.59. However, in the year since, prices have been in a relatively narrow range
between $1.67/kg and $1.98/kg, a spread of just 31 cents per kilogram between the
highest and lowest prices over that period. The last 13 months have been one of the
longest periods of relative price stability in cotton since the 1970s.

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 Traders are unaware of any specific reason why cotton prices remained within a narrow
range over the past year, other than observing that supply and demand seem to be in
balance. Crop forecasts for 2022 and 2023 turned out to be fairly accurate, and there
were no major supply side shocks.

Cotton futures finished August 2023 at $1.94 per kilogram, tantalizingly close to the top
of the range, and some technicians were predicting a breakout to the upside. But then,
futures finished November 2023 near the bottom of the range, and there is now
discussion of a breakout to the downside. The only thing that can be noted with certainty
is that prices will not remain within the range forever.

• Polyester yarn, 32 count, single, white, virgin material, grade 1, (directly competitive
with spun cotton yarn) in China was quoted at US$1.78/kg at the end of November,
essentially unchanged since June. Declines in prices quoted in Yuan have been offset
by a stronger exchange rate with the USD.
(http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-1241.html)

• Prices quoted by the Indian Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of November
converted to US$ were unchanged from October at an average of 69 cents/kg, but they
were 12% higher than at the end of September. Regulatory authorities in India raised
minimum prices in September in an effort to boost the fortunes of jute farmers, but few
transactions occurred in October or November at the higher minimums. JBA quotes had
been in a narrow range between 73 cents and 76 cents per kilogram between October
2022 and July 2023, but then fell sharply in August and September. Jute prices in
dollars in November were still 8% below the year-earlier level.
(https://www.wgc.de/en)

• Prices of silk (grade 3A; Denier 20/22D; regain 11%) in China converted to USD were
quoted at $70.40/kg at the end of November, 4% higher than at the end of October and
16% higher than a year earlier. (http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-322.html)

• Quotes for coir fibre in India quoted in US$ have been removed from the Connect2India
web site. However, an alternative source for price data, Indiamart, indicates that prices
for coir fibre of various colors and qualities converted to USD range between $0.10 and
$0.42 per kg. (https://www.indiamart.com/proddetail/coir-fibre-white-and-brown-price-
700-to-860-340-to-480-14342536291.html)

Quotes for coir fibre fob Indonesia converted to US$ were $0.11 per kilogram in
November, up from $0.09 per kilogram in October. (https://coconutcommunity.org/page-
statistics/weekly-price-update)

• The Eastern Market Indicator of prices for fine wool in Australia rose 6% in November
to US$7.67. The EMI in USD was still 8% lower than in November 2022.
(https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/weekly-price-reports/)

The British Fleece Wool Price Indicator of broad wool prices (used in carpeting, blankets, and
other broad-yarn applications) rose 20% during November to $1.84 per kilogram. Prices in
November were 44% higher than a year earlier.
(https://www.britishwool.org.uk/price-indicator)

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• Prices of Western European flax long fibre, ex scutching mill, averaged over all
qualities, converted to US$, rose to $7.16 per kg in September 2023 (most recent month
available). Flax fibre prices in dollars were 71% higher than in September 2022. Poor
weather in the growing areas of France and Belgium, which account for nearly 90% of
world production, caused shortages and higher prices. (Alliance for European Flax/Linen
and Hemp)

• Prices of Brazilian sisal, Bahia, Type 3 DB, FOB Salvador were quoted at US$0.945
per kilogram in October (the latest month available), 10% lower than a year earlier.
Tanzania/Kenya 3L, FOB were $1.975 per kg in October, while UG was quoted at
$1.750 per kg. Both were unchanged over the most recent four months, but prices were
down 13% compared with a year earlier.
(https://fpma.fao.org/giews/fpmat4/#/dashboard/tool/international)

• The Freightos Baltic Global Container Index for backhaul traffic from US West Coast ports to
China (FBX02) for 40’ containers, including surcharges, fell a further 5% during November to
$353. The indicator was 56% lower than a year earlier, and 68% lower than in May 2022.
Container charges for shipments from the US West Coast to China represented more than 2%
of the value of cotton during 2022 but were just 1% in November 2023.

The Index for traffic from the Mediterranean to China via the Suez Canal (FBX14) fell 37%
during November to just $195 per container. (https://fbx.freightos.com/freight-index/FBX)

Reflecting the ongoing drought in the Americas, Eastbound transits through the Panama Canal
have been reduced from 36 per day to 32. The Canal is planning to reduce transits to just 18
per day by February 1. (Inside Fashion)

World Natural Fibre Production

Year 2023:
World natural fibre production is estimated at 31.4 million tonnes in 2023, a reduction of 500,000
tonnes from the estimate published in early November, and down more than one million tonnes
from 2022. Estimates for 2023 are published by the United States Department of Agriculture for
cotton. A private company, Cotton Outlook, also publishes estimates for cotton. The International
Wool Textile Organization provides information for wool. Data from the Philippines for the first nine
months of 2023 are used to estimate world abaca production. The Philippines is the largest
producer. Reports of jute crop conditions and harvest progress in Bangladesh and India are used
to estimate jute production, and comments by industry observers influence the estimate of flax
fibre production. Production of other fibres are trend extrapolations.

World cotton production in 2023 was estimated in November by USDA at 24.7 million tonnes, an
increase of 200,000 tonnes compared with the estimate released in October. Nevertheless,
production in 2023 is still estimated 700,000 tonnes less than in 2022. In comparison, Cotton
Outlook is estimating 2023/24 world cotton production at 24.1 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.8
million tonnes from their estimate of production in 2022/23.

Cotton analysts place great importance on whether estimates of world stocks as of July 31 each
season (ending stocks) are rising or falling. (https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde) The
November estimates by USDA indicates that world cotton ending stocks will decline by about
300,000 tonnes between July 31, 2023 and July 31, 2024. However, stocks are expected to remain

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relatively large at more than 17 million tonnes, equivalent to some 8.5 months of world cotton
consumption.

The entire data series for flax fibre production has been revised downward this month by a factor
of five. Information provided by the Alliance for European Flax/Linen and Hemp show that data
published by FAO represent flax straw, equivalent to seed cotton or greasy wool, rather than flax
fibre, equivalent to cotton lint or clean wool. Based on data from France (France alone accounts
for three-fourths of world flax production), flax fibre represents just one-fifth of the weight of flax
straw delivered to scutching plants. Accordingly, the estimate of 2023 flax fibre production has
been reduced from 850,000 tonnes, which represented straw harvested by farmers to be delivered
to scutching mills, to just 170,000 tonnes.

Year 2022:
World natural fibre production in 2022 is estimated at 32.5 million tonnes, a reduction of 600,000
tonnes from the estimate published one month ago. The decline was caused by the revision to
flax production statistics.

( 2023 © Dr. Terry Townsend, https://dnfi.org )

More About DNFI

The Discover Natural Fibres Initiative facilitates the exchange of information and experiences and
works to advance the common interests of all natural fibres in the face of competition with oil-
based and wood-based manmade fibres. Membership in DNFI is open to anyone with an interest
in the growth of natural fibre industries. To become a member, simply register on-line at
https://dnfi.org/

DNFI is a member of Make the Label Count (https://www.makethelabelcount.org), a coalition of

natural fibre and environmental organizations working to ensure that sustainability claims for textile

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products in the EU are technically sound. Sustainability claims must be transparent, accurate and
complete, allowing producers and consumers to make informed choices about the clothing and
home furnishings they make and buy.

Events:

The 37th International Cotton Conference Bremen will be held during 20-22 March 2024. The event
will be surrounded by a complete Bremen Cotton Week with several additional cotton and textile
related meetings and workshops. The conference will be held in hybrid format on-site in Bremen
and online. (https://www.cotton-conference-bremen.de/ )

DNFI Annual Meeting during Heimtextil in January 2024

The Annual Meeting of the Discover Natural Fibres Initiative will be conducted in hybrid
format between 15:00 and 17:30 in Frankfurt, Germany, in the offices of the German textile
industry association, IVGT. All those with an interest in natural fibres are invited to
participate, either in-person or virtually.

The 2024 Meeting will feature reports on natural fibre production, value and employment,
macroeconomic trends influencing fibre prices, factors affecting trade in natural fibres, and
an ensuing discussion on emerging developments in markets for natural fibres of which
producers should be aware.

Presentations will be made by representatives of The World Bank, the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the UN, and organizations representing natural fibre industries. A full
agenda is available online at https://dnfi.org/dnfi-annual-meeting-2024 .

Register to attend, virtually or in-person. Details of the meeting, including a meeting link
for those attending virtually, will be sent to registered participants.

Student at Hochschule Hof wins 2023 DNFI Award

Ms Amelie Pörschmann, a student at Hochschule Hof, Germany has won the 2023 DNFI
Innovation in Natural Fibres Research Award for the development of The Regrow.

Ms Pörschmann developed a biodegradable, woven fabric pot in which plants can be started.
Once seedlings reach a stage suitable for transfer to soil, they can be planted intact within their
biodegradable textile pots and do not need to be removed from plastic planting trays, which are
currently in common use. (https://dnfi.org/amelie-poerschmann-wins-2023-dnfi-award)

Ms Pörschmann is an upcoming textile designer known for the fusion of functionality and
aesthetics. She has created a variety of Eco print designs, each produced with environmentally
friendly dyes. The pattern pieces are customizable, so sizes can be made for specific
requirements. The Regrow woven fabric pot is a zero-waste product.

She will be officially recognized during an award ceremony conducted on 11 January 2024
beginning at 11:00 o’clock (CET) in Messe Frankfurt during Heimtextil fair.
(https://dnfi.org/dnfi-at-heimtextil-2024/)

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