Mobile Networks and Applications 1 (1996) 113-121 113

A class of mobile motion prediction algorithms for wireless mobile

computing and communications
George Liu a and Gerald Maguire Jr. b
a System Research Department, Ericsson Radio Systems, S-164 80 Stockholm, Sweden
b Department ofTeleinformatics, Royalfnstitute of Technology, S-16440 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract. This paper describes a class of novel mobile motion prediction algorithms for supporting global mobile data acces-
sing. Traditionally, mobility and routing management includes functions to passivelykeep track of the location of the users/term-
inals and to maintain connections to the terminals belonging to the system. To maintain uninterrupted high-quality service for
distributed applications, it is important that a mobile systembe more intelligent and can anticipate the change of the location of its
user. We propose an aggressive mobility and routing management scheme, called predictive mobility management9A class of
mobile motion prediction algorithms predicts the "future" location of a mobile user according to the user's movement history, i.e9
previous movement patterns, By combiningthis schemewith mobility agent functions, the serviceand user routing data are actual!y
pre-connected and pre-assigned at the locations to which the user is moving. Thus, the user can immediatelyreceiveserviceor data
with virtually the same efficiencyas at the previous location, i.e., without encountering a large "data structure handover" delay
before serviceor data is available.

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n tion of a mobile user according to the user's m o v e m e n t

Wireless mobile computing [1-4,6,9,11] has been
extensively studied in recent years in both the computer
and communication communities 9 However, most of the
recent studies focus on the network layer communica-
tion protocols and few of them on the mobility aspects
caused by mobile users behavior. To m a k e intelligent
mobile-aware applications and efficient routing man-
agement, it is important that a mobile system be more
intelligent and can anticipate the change of the location
of its user. On the other hand, service and resource mobi-
lity [14,16] introduce new requirements for mobility
management. Mobility is an aspect of user behavior
which impacts wireless networks as well as wired ones,
The concepts of mobility m a n a g e m e n t have been used in
the cellular mobile networks for m a n y years, but, it was
primarily designed to support mobile voice communica-
tion. Traditionally, mobility m a n a g e m e n t includes func-
tions to passively keep track of the location of the users/
terminals and to maintain connections to the terminals
belonging to the system [7,8]. H o w to adopt mobility
m a n a g e m e n t for efficiently supporting mobile data rout-
ing, mobile data accessing and mobile computing is still
an open question.
We argue that to maintain uninterrupted high-quality
service for distributed applications in a mobile envi-
ronment, the data routing should not only passively
reflect the change of terminal location, but also aggres-
sively anticipate the behavior of mobile users. We pro-
pose an aggressive mobility and routing m a n a g e m e n t
scheme, called Predictive Mobility M a n a g e m e n t
(PMM). A set of Mobile Motion Prediction ( M M P )
algorithms [15,17] is used to predict the " f u t u r e " loca-
history patterns 9 The data or services are pre-connected
and pre-assigned at the new location before the user
moves into the new location. Thus, the user can immedi-
ately receive service or data with virtually the same effi-
ciency as at the previous location.
The M M P algorithms are based on the fact that
everyone has some degree of regularity in his/her move-
ment, that is, the m o v e m e n t of people consists of r a n d o m
m o v e m e n t and regular movement, and the majority of
mobile users have some regular daily (hourly, weekly,
9 movement-patterns and follow these patterns m o r e
or less every day of the week (particular hours, particular
days, ...). A typical example is the "boring professor/
researchers" home-office-home pattern 9
Two basic m o v e m e n t models are proposed, namely,
the M o v e m e n t Circle (MC) and M o v e m e n t Track (MT)
models, which efficiently extend the M a r k o v model in
mobile applications for modelling the m o v e m e n t of
mobile users. The M C algorithm is based on the closed
circuit-like (MC) model of user m o v e m e n t behaviors
and is used for predicting long-term regular movement.
Such closed circuits, representing a return to a previous
state, are topologically a cycle, The M T algorithm based
on the M T model is used for predicting the routine ones.
Three classes of matching schemes are used for correla-
tion analysis of MCs or MTs.
The rest of this paper is divided into the following
sections. Section 2 describes the background and pre-
vious work. Section 3 proposes the m o v e m e n t models 9
Section 4 describes the mobile motion prediction algo-
rithms. And finally, in section 5, some simulation
results of the mobile motion prediction algorithms are
presented.

9 J.C. Baltzer AG, Science Publishers

114 G. Liu, G. MaguireJr. / Mobilemotionprediction algorithms
2. B a c k g r o u n d a n d p r e v i o u s w o r k
Several user mobility and movement models can be
found in the literature for modelling the mobility behav-
ior of mobile users. Among them, a widely used one is
the fluid flow model [10] in which it is assumed that
mobile users are uniformly populated and the users car-
rying terminals are moving at an average velocity with
uniformly distributed moving-direction over [0, 2rr].
With the above assumptions, this model has been effi-
ciently used in studying the performance of PCS net-
works and the impacts of user mobility on the database
of PCS systems.
To study the handoff procedures in mobile systems,
Hong and Rappaport [5] proposed a mobility model
which assumes that the speed and direction of a mobile
terminal are independent random variables. The direc-
tion of a mobile terminal is assumed to be uniformly dis-
tributed in the range of [-rr/2, re/2]. It is also assumed
that when mobile users cross cell boundaries, their speed
and direction are independently and randomly regener-
ated.
These models are useful and efficient for analyzing
the performance of mobile systems from the " m a c r o "
point of view, i.e., focusing on the total population of
mobile users. But they are not suitable for predicting the
movement of mobile users since the characteristics of
each mobile user are not considered individually. To
study and predict the movement of mobile users, we take
another approach: modelling the individual behavior of
the movement of the mobile users. We consider the
movement of individual mobile user to consist of two
parts: a random movement component and regular
movement component. In turn, the regular movement
consists of identical movement patterns of each mobile
user which represents the special behavior of the move-
ment of the user within a defined period of time. We
further use the concepts of stationary, boundary and
transitional states to form and identify movement pat-
terns. The M T / M C model is proposed to model the reg-
ular movement of mobile users.
3. T h e p r o p o s e d m o v e m e n t m o d e l s
We consider a cellular system covering a large geo-
graphic area (service area) with many hexagonal cells
with each cell being serviced by a base station. A cell or a
group of cells may form a Location Area (LA) in which
the location information is periodically broadcast to the
covered area by the basestation(s). The mobile terminals
carried by users can themselves identify the current geo-
graphic location by listening to identification informa-
tion. Each geographic location information (identity
area) corespondents to a state signal received by the
terminal.
Let S be the state which is corespondent to an identity
area or a cell in the service area. A state variable can be
denoted by Sk,, where k<~K and t E T, K is the number
of states in the state space and T is an index set. The state
space is the set of all possible values and is denoted by I.
A state is called a Stationary State (SS) if a mobile has
stayed in the state for at least a period of time r~. A state
is called a Transitional State (TS) ira mobile has stayed
in the state for less than a period of time r~. A state is
called a Boundary State (BS) if the state is at the bound-
ary of the service area.
In modeling practical movement situations of mobile
users, the daily movement of a mobile user can be subdi-
vided into basically two parts: regular movement and
random movement. Let Sk,t be state k at time t of the reg-
ular movement and X(k, t) be state k at time t of the ran-
dom parts. Thus, the regular movement process is
{ S~,t I k <~K, t E T} and the random movement process
is {X(k, t) I k ~<K, t E T}. The movement process can be
denoted by
{M(k,t)} = {&,t I k<. K , t 9 T}
+ {X(k,t) I k < K , t c f}. (1)
To model the regular parts of the movement, two
movement models, namely Movement Circle (MC) and
Movement Track (MT) are proposed. Stochastic pro-
cesses and Markov chain model are used to model the
random parts of the movement.
3.1. Movement Circle (MC) model
The MC model is based on the assumption that
wherever a user moves from a location, the user will
eventually return or has returned (backward). Thus,
the movement behavior of mobile users are modeled as
different circle-like patterns. The states are represented
by small' circles identified by numbers which indicate
the Location Areas (LA) corresponding to the states.
An MC is defined as a circle which consists o f n (n > 1)
unidirectional sequential states with at least 1 station-
ary state or boundary state. As stated earlier, a bound-
ary state is a state at the boundary of the service area
and a state is called a stationary state if a mobile has
stayed in the state for at least a period of time rs. An
MC is called boundary MC if one or more states in an
MC are boundary states. A BMC has higher priority
than an MC with a boundary priority factor /3 (/3 > 1).
Each state in reality may represent an LA or a cell in a
cellular system.
D e f i n i t i o n o f a m o v e m e n t circle process. An MC
process is defined to be a discrete-parameter and
discrete-state process { Sk,t ] k <~K, t E T} in which
there exists Si,t = Sj,t for any t E T,j - i > L (L~>2),
where the Si,t, Sj,t are stationary states or boundary
states. An MC process is denoted by
{Me(k,t) I k<~K,t C T}.
 G. Liu, G. MaguireJr./MobiIemotionprediction algorithms
3,2. Movement-Track ( MT) model
While the M C model addresses long-term, regular
user movements, the M T model is a less-constrained ver-
sion of the M C and addresses routine movements. As
shown in Fig. 1, an M T is an unidirectional itinerary
which begins and ends with a stationary state or a bound-
ary state. F o r example, if a mobile has stayed at location
1 for more than a period of time 7-s, then passed through
location 16, 17, 18 (the time stayed at each location is less
than ~-~)and finally stopped at location 21 for a time per-
iod longer than ~-s, it forms a m o v e m e n t track. This
m o v e m e n t track can be recorded as an M T which begins
with state 1 and ends with state 21, as shown in Fig. 1
(the first MT). Since an M T is an unidirectional itiner-
ary, if the mobile has been m o v e d the same way back to
location 1, then it forms another M T , i.e., the third M T
in Fig. 1. An M T is called Boundary M T ( B M T ) if one or
more states in an M T are boundary states. A B M T has
higher priority than an M T with a boundary priority fac-
tor ( > 1).
An M C m a y consist of one or more MTs which begin
and end with the same stationary or boundary states. In
some special case, an M T can be an M C itself if it begins
and ends with the same stationary or boundary states,
such as the second M T in Fig. 1.
D e f i n i t i o n o f a m o v e m e n t t r a c k process. An M T
process is defined to be a discrete-parameter and
discrete-state process {Sk,t I k<<.K, t r T} in which there
exists a n u m b e r of L (2 < L~<K) stationary states or
b o u n d a r y states Sk,~, for any t E T. An M T process is
d e n o t e d b y {MT-(k, t) I k<~K, t E T}.
3.3. Markov chain model
The m o v e m e n t of a mobile user can be modeled by a
discrete-parameter and discrete-state stochastic process
if and only if it is assumed that the m o v e m e n t is random,
that is, the M(k, t) is a r a n d o m variable for any k c K,
O TransttionalStates 0 StationaryStates O Boundarystates
O BoundaryandStationarystates
t 2 2 2 2 22
Fig. 1. An example of a movement-track model.
115
t r T, where K is the sample space. Because the daily
m o v e m e n t of a mobile user m a y not always be r a n d o m #1
and the m o v e m e n t sequence states are not independent,
that is, the nth- order joint distribution of the m o v e m e n t
process does not satisfy the following independent condi-
tion:
V(x; t) = V(xi; ti) = r I P[Sk,,, <.xii,
i=l i=1
where x = ( x l , . . . , x n ) , t = ( t l , . . . , t n ) , a M a r k o v pro-
cess is not completely suitable for modelling the move-
ment processes.
Therefore, we only use the M a r k o v chain model to
describe the behavior of the r a n d o m parts of the user's
movement. We assume that the regular part of the move-
ment process consists of only the M C processes and M T
processes, that is:
{Mc(k,t) ]k<~K, t E T } + { M r ( k , t ) [k<...K,tr T}
= {sk, ! k K, t c r } . (2)
So, the remainder of a m o v e m e n t process after the
M C and M T processes have been detected and removed
is a r a n d o m process, that is, applying (2) to (1), we get
{X(k,t) lk<,,K,t e T} = {M(k, t)} - ({M~.(k,t) lk<~K,
t E T} + {Mr(k,t) lk<~K,t C V}). (3)
We also assume that the remainder process
{X(k, t) [ k ~<K, t r T} is a M a r k o v process in which the
probability distributions for its future development
depends only on the present state and not on how the
process arrived in that state #2
3.4. MC/MTmodel versus Markov model
While the M a r k o v model assumes that state is ran-
d o m variable and the probability distributions for its
future development depend only on the present state, on
the other hand, the M C / M T model assumes that the
m o v e m e n t state has some regular-patterns and the prob-
ability distributions for its future development depend
very much on how and f r o m where the process arrived in
that state. By exploiting the difference in these assump-
tions and combining the advantages (and minimizing the
disadvantages) of each model we hope to provide a bet-
ter model of the m o v e m e n t of mobile users.
1
The M C / M T model m a y be more efficient for regular
m o v e m e n t or m o v e m e n t with a regular-pattern, for
~1 Actually, no one moves randomly all day and the majority of
mobile users have some regular daily movement-patterns and fol-
low these patterns more or less every day of the week.
#~ Note that this is not strictly true as there may be higher order pat-
terns which we do not look for and thus the remainder processmany
not be completelyrandom. However, for the purposes of this paper
we will assumethat these higher order patterns are not significant.
116 G. Liu, G. Maguire Jr. /Mobitemotionprediction algorithms
example, the daily "home-office-home" movement pat-
tern. For the regular movement, M C / M T model may be
very efficient in that no complicated calculation is
needed and thus, the speed of the prediction is very fast.
But, the disadvantage is that if the length of MTs and
MCs are short, the prediction accuracy may be low.
The M a r k o v model may be more efficient for random
movement. It can provide detailed calculation of the
probability distributions for the next possible states with
a given confidence level. But, it needs processing power
to do the complicated calculations and thus, an imple-
mentation may be slow (too slow to be useful when
implemented on the current location servers or it may
require too much processing power to make it fast
enough to be useful).
Therefore, we use the M C / M T model for regular
movement and the M a r k o v model for the stationary and
boundary states. To make it little bit easy to understand
the relation between the M C / M T model and the
M a r k o v model, let us look an example in which we
assume that there are only two stationary states $1, $2,
and the rest of the states are transitional states, as shown
in Fig. 2. Thus, it forms two MTs: MT1, MT2 and four
MCs: MC1, MC2, MC3, MC4 and MC5.
If we assume that the probability of a movement fol-
lowing the MT1 from the state $1 is ~, that is, the prob-
ability of transform from $1 to $2, then the probability of
the movement following MCI from the state $1 is 1 - ~.
The MC2, MC3 and MC4 are identical movement circles
with the probability of ~, ( and v respectively. So,
the transition probability from $2 to S1 is
"y = 1 - (~ + ( + v). The M C / M T model can be viewed
as the extension of the Markov model in the applications
for modelling the movement of mobile users.
4. M o b i l e m o t i o n p r e d i c t i o n a l g o r i t h m s
The Mobile Motion Prediction (MMP) algorithm
consists of regularity detection algorithms and a motion
prediction algorithm. The motion prediction algorithm
uses the database of regular movement patterns and the
random probability information with constitutional
constraints to predict the next movement track o f the
mobile user.
transitional states
MT 1
!
i
MT2
Fig: 2. An example o f M C / M T model versus Markov model.
4.1. Regularity detection algorithms
N o matter how mobile users move, their movement
history patterns can be basically subdivided into the ran-
dom part and the regularity part. The random informa-
tion can be used for statistical and probabilistic analysis
using stochastic processes and M a r k o v models for
motion prediction (this will be discussed in next section).
The regularity part can be used to predict the future reg-
ular movement of the users.
The Regularity Detection (RD) algorithm detects
and forms the regular M C and M T patterns from the
movement itineraries of a mobile user. These MC or M T
patterns are then saved into an Itinerary-Pattern Base
(IPB). The IPB is a database in which the itinerary pat-
terns are stored. The random parts are also saved for
probability analysis. The idea of using the MC and M T
patterns is to make the movement pattern easy and sim-
ple to be detected and saved.
4.2. The M T / M C detection algorithm
In generating itinerary patterns based on the M T /
M C models, the algorithm carries out a movement track
and a movement circle detection method comprising the
following steps.
Let Sk,t be state k at time t; let N be the maximum num-
ber of states in a State Queue (SQ); let M be the maximum
number of Movement Circles (MCs) and Movement
Tracks (MTs) in the IPB. Keep the state queue of k
states (1 <~k<<,N) in a F I F O order and keep a number j
of MCs 1 <~j<~M in an L R U replacement order in the
IPB. The M C / M T detection algorithm is as follows:
BEGIN
1). IF Sk,t is an SS or BS,
F O R i=k-L to 1,
IF Si,t is an SS or BS (for any t, k-i>L),
then mark [Si,t-tl Si+l,t-t2 9 9 9 Sk,t] a new
MT, E N D I F ;
IF Si,t == Sk,t (for any t, k-i>L) and Si,t is a
SS or BS,
then mark [Si,t_tl Si+l,t_t2... Sk,t] a new
MC, E N D I F ;
ELSE G O T O END;
ENDIF;
2). IF any state in the new M C / M T is a BS,
then mark the new MC " b o u n d a r y priority"
t MC
with fl = fl + 1,
ENDIF;
3). Comparing the new M C / M T with each saved
MC/MTs,
IF # >/cq (matching), then p of saved M C is
MC4 increased by 1 and calculate the frequency
parameter (F) of the M C / M T in the IPB;
ELSE
Saving the new M C / M T i n t o the IPB with
 G. Liu, G. Maguire Jr./Mobile motion prediction algorithms
L R U order;
ENDIF;
4). IF MC, Remove [Si,t-tl Si+l,t-t2...Sk,t] from the
state-queue (only the states on the state-queue not
the ones in the IPB) E N D I F ;
END.
Where L (L = 2, 3, 4, ...) is the minimum length
(number of states) of an MC. C~l is confidence factor that
is set according to the accuracy requirements or confi-
dence level desired (normally, it is selected to be 0.95,
0.975, 0.995, ...). SS denotes stationary state and BS
denotes boundary state. Each MC and M T has an L R U
parameter p which indicates the priority of the MC in the
IPB. If one or more states in an M C / M T is a boundary
state, the M C / M T is called boundary M C / M T with a
boundary priority parameter /~.
Each movement circle consists of at least one MT.
Each MC and M T is associated with a L R U priority
parameter p, a frequency parameter F, and a boundary
priority parameter 3. The priority parameter indicates
the priority of the M C or M T with respect to other MCs
or MTs in the IPB. The frequency parameter indicates
the frequency of the M C or MT. It indicates how many
times the M C or M T re-occurs since it has been saved in
the IPB. For each new MT, all of the parameters are initi-
alized to zero. F o r each new MC, all of the parameters
are initialized to the value of its M T which has the high-
est/3.
This algorithm is actually very simple. First, a
" n e w " M T is detected by comparing an incoming M T to
each of the MTs already stored in the IPB. If the new
MT's first-class matching index # matches the index # of
one of the stored MTs, the priority parameter p of the
stored M T is increased by 1. Otherwise, the new M T is
stored in the IPB with the initial values of p = 0, F = 0,
and/3 = 0. Second, if one or more states in an M T is a
boundary state, that M T is called a boundary M T and
has its boundary priority parameter/3 increased by 1.
4.3. Motion prediction algorithm
The Motion Prediction Algorithm (MPA) predicts
the next states of movement or movement tracks by
using correlation analysis of current movement-itiner-
ary with the M T / M C s in the IPB and with the associated
analysis using the probability information. In general,
the output of the MP algorithm (PDout or Cout)is a future
state or a sequence of future states.
The operation of the M P A includes means for com-
paring input states provided to the M P A with predicted
states generated by the MPA and methods for matching
input states to IPs ( M T s / M C s ) stored in the IPB and for
generating predictions. If the comparator indicates that
a prediction is right, i.e., that the current input state
matches the predicted state, the rest of the predicted IP is
provided as the output of the MPA. If the comparator
117
indicates that the current input state does not match the
prediction, or when the M P A is initialized, a motion pre-
diction process is carried out to generate the next predic-
tion.
When an input state does not match the correspond-
ing predicted state, the sequence of input states begin-
ning with the most recent stationary state or boundary
state is compared by the MP to each of the MCs and
MTs stored in the IPB. This matching process deter-
mines the best-matched stored itinerary pattern, which
becomes the output of the motion predictor, or selects
the state with the highest probability to be the next state
of the movement as the Cout of the prediction by using
stochastic and Markov process analysis.
Three classes of matching schemes are used for corre-
lation analysis of MCs or MTs. The first-class of match-
ing (with a index p,), called state-matching, indicates the
degree to which a sequence of states matches another
sequence of states having a similar length:
ms
t~ Ns '
where ms is the number of states in the sequence that
matched, and N~. is the total number of states in the
sequence.
The second-class of matching, called velocity or time-
matching (indexed by rl), indicates the degree of the time
of a sequence of states matches another time sequence of
states having a similar length:
/(ti+l - t,h (t,+l - t, hl
~1=- N,-1
~-~4=1 [(ti+ 1 -- ti)2 0 (ti+l -- ti)l ]
where: (ti+l --li)l is the time interval between state i
and state i + 1 in the first sequence; (ti+l -- ti)2 is the time
interval between state i and state i + 1 in the second
sequence; "+-+"and "| are the modulo minus and plus
operators, where the moduli are 24 for hours and 60 for
minutes.
The third-class of matching, called frequency- match-
ing (indexed by or), indicates the degree that the fre-
quency of a first sequence o f states matches a second
sequence of states having a similar length. The frequency
of a sequence of states is calculated by how often the
"sequence of states" occurs during a defined time per-
iod. The third class matching-index r is given by the fol-
lowing expression:
9 =~ - l,
where Fi and Fj are the frequencies of the first sequence
and the second sequence; ff = 0 indicates exact match-
ing.
An example of the calculation of the third class match-
ing index 9 is shown as follows. Referring to Fig. 3,
which illustrates an example of how a user moves
through various states (indicated on the vertical axis) as
a function of time (indicated on the horizontal axis), the
118 G. Liu, G. Maguir e Jr. / M o b i l e m o t i o n p r e d i c t i o n algorithms

The PDout denotes prediction output and Co~t is the

output of stochastic (Markov) processes analysis with
constitutional constraints, r/-matching: ~7> a3; B-
matching: B > a4; c~3and c~4are confidence factors.
Looked at in a different way, the matching process is
advantageously structured like a tree, as depicted in
Fig. 4. As shown in the figure, on the right-hand side is
the regularity prediction output, which is the prediction
output according to the regularity of the movement. On
Fig. 3. An example of calculating the third class matching index q).
the left-hand side is the random and constitutional predi-
cation output (Co,t), which is the results of the constitu-
third class matching index B is determined as follows. tional and stochastic process analysis. The matching tree
The six movement circles depicted in Fig. 3 can be recur- is operated as a filter to select the best suitable predic-
ring with different frequencies F1, F2, where F1 is the fre- tion. If only one stored MC or MT has fulfilled the p-
quency of the two longer movement circles and F2 is the matching requirement with the incoming sequence
frequency of the four shorter movement circles. (P>~al), that one is provided as the prediction by the
The frequency parameter Fe of an MC or an MT is MPA. If more than one MC or MT has fulfilled the p-
given by the following expression: matching requirement, then the second-class matching
n indices are examined. If none of stored MC or MT has
Fk - k=l tk
/'/ 1 fulfilled the p-matching requirement with the incoming
sequence (p < c~1), then the stochastic Markov process
where n = p + 1, p is the priority parameter of the MC analysis with constitutional constraints is used to find
or MT in the IPB. The frequency parameter F~ of a new the state with the highest probability. If only one stored
incoming sequence of states is given by the following MC or MT has fulfilled the r/-matching requirement with
expression: the incoming sequence 07 ~>a3), that one is provided as
1 the prediction by the MPA. If more than one MC or MT
has fulfilled the r/-matching requirement, then the third-
class matching indices are examined. If only one stored
Thus, the third class matching-index B is MC or MT has an F index that matches the F of the
incoming sequence, that one is provided as the predic-
Bk= 1 " t 1..] tion by the MPA. If more than one MC or MT has an F
that matches, then the sequence having the highest p and
The matching process uses explicitly the 3 classes /3, and with highest probability in the constitutional con-
matching methods to select the MC or MT which has the straints is provided as the prediction by the MPA.
highest probability to be reused: For each new incoming Otherwise, the stochastic Markov process analysis with
Sk,t, comparing [Sk-,,t-tnS~-n+~,t-t~+l... Sk,t] with each
MC and MT in the IPB, (Sk-~,t-t, is the latest SS or BS,
n > 0). Step 1). Using p-matching: If only one p-
matched MC or MT (p ~>al), PDo,t = [Sk+l,t+tlSk+2,t+t2
9.. Sk+m,t+tm] of the matched MC or MT, (m > 0); else, if
no p-matched MC or MT, PDo~t = Co,t; else, Step 2).
Using ~ matching: For all the p-matched MCs or MTs
(jointed states), if there is only one MC or MT which is r/-
matched with the incoming sequence of states,
PDo~t = [Sk+l,t+tlSk+2,t+t2 . . . Sk+m,t+trn], (m > 0). Else, if
there is no MC or MT which is ~7-matched with the
incoming sequence of states, find one with the best #-
matched constraint state. Step 3). Using B-matching: for
all the # and ~ matched MC or MT (joined states), if only ,,, c.o,.,tj --o ~ =1 '~ J
one is B-matched with the incoming sequence of states,
PDout = [Sk+l,t+tlSk+e,t+t2 . . . Sk+m,t+tm], (m > 0). Else, if
there is no MC or MT which is B-matched with the
incoming sequence of states, find the one with the best ~-
matched and best #-matched constraint state. If more
than one B-matched MC or MT (joined states), find the
one with the highest p +/3, PDo,t = [Sk+l,t+tlSk+2,t+t2
. . . Sk+m,t+tm], /~ > O. Fig. 4. The matchingtree.
 G. Liu, G. Maguire Jr. / Mobile motion prediction algorithms
a). Basic constitutional
constraints:
If Random, P>= 1/8
Straet~
(1-6, up and down)
b). Other constitutional
constraints:
Wall,
Fig. 5. A n example of constitutional constraints.
constitutional constraints is used to find the state with
the highest probability.
The constitutional constraint information used in
the matching process is based on the physical construc-
tion of the communication system, which is known a
priori #3. If the algorithm is implemented in the mobile
station, for example, this physical construction informa-
tion can be provided to the mobile through overhead
messages sent on a control channel. An example of the
basis for the constraint information is illustrated in
Fig. 5. For basic constitutional constraints, as shown in
Fig. 5(a), a mobile user located in a given cell, say cell 0,
can move to any one of the six adjoining cells 1-6 in the
same plane and adjoining cells that might be above and
below that plane; thus, in the absence of any informa-
tion, each of those eight adjoining cells may be the next
state with a probability of 1/8 if the user moves uni-
formly randomly in all directions, that is, we assume the
directions of the movement of the mobile users are uni-
formly distributed in [0, 2~r). Fig. 5(b) illustrates an
example of a physical configuration in which a door is at
one end of a corridor (street or highway) that is also
joined by another corridor. The communication system
may know apriori that a mobile user in one of the corri-
dors (streets or highways) cannot pass through a wall of
the corridor and enter one of the other cells. This infor-
mation can be used to identify the constraint states.
5. P e r f o r m a n c e e v a l u a t i o n
In this section, we present the evaluation results of
the M M P algorithms.
5.1. Performance measures
The most important measure of the performance of
#3 Such constraints could also be derived from m o v e m e n t data and
suggested to the network m a n a g e r as possible constitutional con-
119
mobile motion prediction algorithm is the prediction
accuracy ratio which is defined as a ratio of the correctly
predicted states out of the total states input to the predic-
tor. The prediction accuracy ratio will approach
(converge to) the probability of correct prediction by the
predictor when the simulated number of predictions is
very large.
Another important measure of performance is the
prediction efficiency. The prediction efficiency ratio is
defined as the radio of the prediction accuracy ratio of
the regularity prediction to the regularity factor, that is,
with the random and constitutional predication being
disabled. The prediction efficiency ratio indicates how
efficiently the predictor performs regularity prediction.
5.2. Assumptions
In carrying out the simulation, it is assumed that the
time intervals between consecutive states were assumed
to have a Poisson distribution, which was adjusted by a
daily mobility factor M f according to the following rela-
tionship:
A = ~o x M f , (4)
where )~0 is the unadjusted density of the assumed
Poisson distribution.
To approximate real-world behaviors sufficiently clo-
sely, the Mf takes one of three values over the course of a
working day, depending on the time of day: Mf = 2, for
times between 2000 h and 0600 h; My = 4, for times
between 0830 h and 1600 h; and My = 8, for the rest of
the day. This behavior of the mobility factor is believed
to approximate real-world behaviors sufficiently closely
for an initial simulation. The total state/cell covered
area of the simulation is assumed as in Fig. 6. Fig. 6(A)
shows the total simulated cell area and Fig. 6(B-E) show
the area with different levels of constraints.
5.3. Prediction efficiency
To determine the prediction efficiency ratio, we do
Fig. 6. (A) The total simulated celi area. (B) The area with simple con-
straints (about 34%). (C) The area with 66% constraints. (D) The area
with constraints level 85%. (E) The area with constraints level 92%.
120 G. L i u , G. M a g u i r e Jr. / M o b i l e m o t i o n p r e d i c t i o n a l g o r i t h m s

not use any constitutional constraints (Co,t --= 0). That example, if an user has 70% randomness in his/her
is, users may be assumed to have their terminals switch- movement, the algorithm can still get about 50% right in
ing-off from a cell and switching-on again in any of the predicting his/her movement. For the class of users
cells in the simulated area, as shown in Fig. 6(A). which has 30% or less randomness in their movement,
The normalized results of a simulation of the M M P the prediction accuracy ratio is more than 75%.
algorithm is shown in Fig. 7, in which the number of
states was 100, the length of the SQ was 500, the size of
the IPB was 500, ,k0 = 0.05, and five weeks was simu- 6. C o n c l u d i n g r e m a r k s
lated.
Fig. 7 shows the relationship between a prediction We have proposed a predictive mobility and routing
ratio and a randomness factor. The randomness factor management scheme using the movement circle and
refers to the proportion of a movement that is due to movement track models as well as the M a r k o v chain
pure uniformly random. For example, the randomness model. A class of mobile motion prediction algorithms
factor of an user equals to 0.5 means that 50% of the which consist of regularity-pattern detection algorithms
user's next movement is purely random, or in the other and a motion prediction algorithm has also been pro-
words, the probability of moving randomly in the next posed for supporting services pre-connection, routing
movement is 0.5. The optimum line is the expected best pre-arrangement and resources pre-allocation. The
(theoretical) result, i.e., if there is a regularity factor X algorithms are very simple and fast in practice. With the
(X = 1 - randomness factor) in movement, then the support of a mobility agent [11,14,16], user's data or net-
prediction ratio is X. The dashed line shows the work service can be pre- connected and assigned at the
mean-squared simulation results. The simulated predic- new location to which the user is moving. The user can
tion efficiency, which is the ratio of the prediction ratio get his/her network service or data accessed with vir-
to the regularity factor, was about 95%. Adding consti- tually the same efficiency as at the previous location.
tutional constraints should only increase the accuracy of Preliminary simulations of the M M P algorithm show
prediction. that the prediction efficiency is about 95%.
This predictive scheme deploys the regular-pattern
5.4. Prediction accuracy ratio detection algorithms to decompose the complicated
daily movement into two parts: regular pattern part and
Fig. 7 also shows the prediction accuracy ratio versus random movement part. The M C / M T model is pro-
randomness factor with basic cellular constraints, that posed and used to predict the regular movement while
is, the mobile terminal's probability of moving from one the random parts of the movement is modelled and pre-
cell to any of its adjacent cells has a uniform distribution dicted by the Markov chain model. The simplicity of the
in a cellular area shown in Fig. 6(A). The line " e " in M C / M T model makes the prediction algorithms very
Fig. 7 shows the prediction accuracy ratio with only cel- efficient. It avoids making complex calculations which
lular pattern constraint, i.e., 1/6, and the line " d " in are unavoidable in stochastic models. Thus, the proces-
Fig. 7 shows the prediction accuracy ratio with about sing power required to process the prediction algorithms
34% constraint patterns, as in Fig. 6(B). As can be seen, is greatly reduced. Furthermore, because the output of
prediction accuracy ratio is over 50% in the interval [0, the prediction using the M C / M T models are movement
0.7] of the randomness factor. This means that, for tracks or circles which consists of a sequence of states,
once it is on the right track, no additional processing is
needed while it continues along this M C or MT.
Because the M C / M T model assumes that the move-
1" , j , i i /
: ~ i ! | ment is regular and the Markov model assumes that the
0.9 i .................................................. .......... ::. . . . . . i........
state is a random variable, the M C / M T model may be

~o7
o.a

0.4 ....... i .... ! ~

: 9...... . . . . . . . . . .

i ....... ......
i. . . . . . . .

~ "'-L'"..
i. . . . . . . . . ::. . . . . . . . . i. . . . . .

::

::
i

:" - .
4 more efficient for regular movement while the Markov
model may be more efficient for random movement. An
interesting issue for future work is to make a comparison
of the efficiency of the M C / M T model with the Markov
model and to find out the "cross-over" point of the ran-
~-o.3 ........ i........ i........ i......... i.......... ..........i......... "-~"~'a i..... >" domness factor.
0.2
a -
........
92:*/~
::. . . . . . . . . .
d * 34 %
::. . . . . . . . . .
:
::. . . . . . . . . .
:
:: . . . . . . . . . .........
:
i. . . . . . . . . .
:
::. . . . . . . . .
":-. ~ .:~
.. : , . . ~ . . ! . >~,~ Another interesting issue remained to be considered
o.1 ......... ~......... ~......... ~ ......... i-':':':'-~mu~ t ~ :. . . . . . . . . . . i. . . . . . . . ~. . . . . . . . . i. ~.'.- ,-
in more details is to combine the P M M functions with
0 c - 66::% l--NO ! ! :: :: :: i " location-dependent caching and prefetching techniques
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Randomness Factor [6], that is, to integrate mobility management into cach-
ing and prefetching policies. The work includes analyz-
Fig. 7. Prediction accuracy ratio versus randomness factor with differ-
ing and simulating of the performance of the location-
ent constraint levels 0%-92% as in Fig. 6(A-F). dependent caching and prefetching and the influence of
 G. Liu, G. Maguir e Jr. / Mobile motion prediction algorithms
the accuracy of the PMM functions to the performance
of the caching and prefetching.
Acknowledgement
We would like to thank Professor Bj6rn Pehrson, Dr.
Alexander Marlevi, Expert Anders Danne and Professor
Jens Zander for helpful discussions, comments and their
support of this work. We would also like to thank the
anonymous reviewers of the paper for their valuable
comments and suggestions on the manuscript.
References
[1] D. Duchamp, S.K. Feiner and G.Q. Maguire, Jr., Software
technology for wireless mobile computing, IEEE Network
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[2] R. Hager, A Ktemets, G.Q. Maguire Jr., M.T. Smith and
Frank Reichert, MINT - A mobile internet router, Proc. IEEE
Vehicular Technology Conference "93, Institute of Electrical and
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[3] J. Ioannidis and G.Q. Maguire Jr., The design and
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USENIX Winter 1993 Technical Conference (USENIX
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[4] B.R. Badrinath, A. Arup and T.Imielinski, Structuring
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services Ericsson Tech. Report T/B 94:542.
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[12] K.S. Trivedi, Probability & Statistics with Reliability, Queuing,
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George Y. Liu received the B.Sc. and M.Sc.
degrees, both in electrical engineering, from
NIT in 1982 and 1986, respectively, MBA from
CEMP, Belgium, in 1989, and the Ph.D. degree
in telecommunication systems from the Royal
Institute of Technology, Stockholm, in 1996.
He joined Ericsson in 1990 and was engaged in
the design and development of GSM mobile
communication systems. Since 1993, he has
been with the System Research Department of
Ericsson's Core Unit Radio Systems and Technology, where he is
engaged in research on wireless multimedia communication in the
Walkstation and On-The-Move projects. He holds several patents in
the fields of mobile communications. George Liu's current research
interests include mobility management, wireless data networks, wire-
less multimedia communication, mobile computing, mobile-api,
mobile-ip and mobile intelligent agent. He is a member of the ACM
and IEEE.
E-mail: george.liu@era-t.ericsson.se
Gerald Q. Maguire Jr. received the M.S. and
Ph.D. degrees in computer science from the
University of Utah in 1981 and 1983, respec-
tively, and received his B.A., magna cum iaude,
in physics from Indiana University of
Pennsylvania, in 1975. He is currently profes-
sor of Computer Communication Systems at
the Department of Teleinformatics, Royal
institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Prof. Maguire's current research interests
include mobile computing and communication systems, mobile inter-
networking, and picture archiving and communication systems. He is a
member of the ACM and a senior member of the IEEE.
E-mail: maguire@it.kth.se