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    Forecast Practice. 12 Enero 2024

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    Luis Rodotx
    The document compares different forecasting methods - simple moving average using 3 periods, 4 periods, and weighted moving average using 4 periods - to predict demand for items each month in 2022. It calculates the forecast, error, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error for each method. The weighted moving average using 4 periods had the lowest mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, indicating it was the most accurate forecasting method.

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    Forecast Practice. 12 Enero 2024

    Uploaded by

    Luis Rodotx
    13 views8 pages
    The document compares different forecasting methods - simple moving average using 3 periods, 4 periods, and weighted moving average using 4 periods - to predict demand for items each month in 2022. It calculates the forecast, error, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error for each method. The weighted moving average using 4 periods had the lowest mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, indicating it was the most accurate forecasting method.

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    The document compares different forecasting methods - simple moving average using 3 periods, 4 periods, and weighted moving average using 4 periods - to predict demand for items each month in 2022. It calculates the forecast, error, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error for each method. The weighted moving average using 4 periods had the lowest mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, indicating it was the most accurate forecasting method.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    13 views8 pages

    Forecast Practice. 12 Enero 2024

    Uploaded by

    Luis Rodotx
    The document compares different forecasting methods - simple moving average using 3 periods, 4 periods, and weighted moving average using 4 periods - to predict demand for items each month in 2022. It calculates the forecast, error, mean absolute deviation, mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error for each method. The weighted moving average using 4 periods had the lowest mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error, indicating it was the most accurate forecasting method.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
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    of 8

    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (USING 3 PERIODS)

    MONTHS OF 2022 DEMAND OF ITEMS FORCAST ERROR MAD


    January 2100 - mean absolute
    February 2200 - deviation
    March 1600
    April 1500 1966.67 -466.67 466.67
    May 1400 1766.67 -366.67 366.67
    June 1700 1500.00 200.00 200.00
    July 1800 1533.33 266.67 266.67
    August 1900 1633.33 266.67 266.67
    September 2100 1800.00 300.00 300.00
    October 2100 1933.33 166.67 166.67
    November 2200 2033.33 166.67 166.67
    December 2400 2133.33 266.67 266.67
    January 2023 2233.33 274
    RIODS)
    MSE MAPE
    Mean squared Mean absolute
    error Percent error

    217777.78 31%
    134444.44 26%
    40000.00 12% Desviacion. Que tan alejados estan los datos del promedio
    71111.11 15% Varianza. Desviacion al cuadrado
    71111.11 14%
    90000.00 14%
    27777.78 8%
    27777.78 8%
    71111.11 11%
    83457 15.4%
    tos del promedio
    SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE (USING 4 PERIODS)
    MONTHS OF 2022 DEMAND OF ITEMS FORCAST ERROR MAD
    January 2100 - mean absolute
    February 2200 - deviation
    March 1600
    April 1500
    May 1400 1850.00 -450.00 450.00
    June 1700 1675.00 25.00 25.00
    July 1800 1550.00 250.00 250.00
    August 1900 1600.00 300.00 300.00
    September 2100 1700.00 400.00 400.00
    October 2100 1875.00 225.00 225.00
    November 2200 1975.00 225.00 225.00
    December 2400 2075.00 325.00 325.00
    January 2023 2200.00 275
    RIODS)
    MSE MAPE
    Mean squared Mean absolute
    error Percent error

    202500.00 32%
    625.00 1% Desviacion. Que tan alejados estan los datos del promedio
    62500.00 14% Varianza. Desviacion al cuadrado
    90000.00 16%
    160000.00 19%
    50625.00 11%
    50625.00 10%
    105625.00 14%
    90313 14.6%
    tos del promedio
    Weighted Moving Average: 4 PERIODS
    MONTHS OF 2022 DEMAND OF ITEMS FORCAST ERROR MAD
    January 2100 - mean absolute
    February 2200 - deviation
    March 1600
    April 1500
    May 1400 1730.00 -330.00 330.00
    June 1700 1550.00 150.00 150.00
    July 1800 1560.00 240.00 240.00
    August 1900 1660.00 240.00 240.00
    September 2100 1780.00 320.00 320.00
    October 2100 1940.00 160.00 160.00
    November 2200 2030.00 170.00 170.00
    December 2400 2120.00 280.00 280.00
    January 2023 2250.00 236
    MSE MAPE
    Mean squared Mean absolute
    error Percent error
    0.1
    0.2
    108900.00 24% 0.3
    22500.00 9% 0.4
    57600.00 13% 1
    57600.00 13%
    102400.00 15%
    25600.00 8%
    28900.00 8%
    78400.00 12%
    60238 12.58%

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