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Chapter6-Investment Decision
Chapter6-Investment Decision
5
Investment decision
5
Learning objectives
Oncompletion
ofthischapter
youshould
beableto:
Syllabus
reference
• Identify
andcalculate
relevant
cashflowsforinvestmentD1(a)
projects
• Calculate
payback
period anddiscuss
itsusefulness
as D1(b)
aninvestment
appraisal
method
• Calculate
discounted
paybackanddiscuss
itsusefulnessD1(c)
asaninvestment
appraisal
method
• Calculate
return
oncapitalemployed
(accounting
rateof D1(d)
return)
anddiscussitsusefulness
asaninvestment
G H
appraisal
method
• Calculate
netpresent
valueanddiscuss
itsusefulness
as D1(e)
aninvestment
appraisal
method
• Calculate
internal
rateofreturn
anddiscuss
its D1(f)
usefulness
asaninvestment
appraisal
method
• Discuss
thesuperiority
ofdiscounted
cashflow(DCF) D1(g)
methodsovernon-DCFmethods
• Discuss
therelative
merits
ofNPVandIRR D1(h)
5
Exam context
Thischapterintroducesa variety
ofinvestmentappraisal
techniquesthatareimportant
inSection
Dofthesyllabus (Investment
appraisal),
itisoneoffourchapters(alongwithChapters
6–8)that
coversthisimportantsyllabus
section.
Thetopicscovered herearecommonly examined
inall
sections
oftheexamincluding section
C. Questions
won’tjustinvolve
calculations;
youmaybe
askedtodiscusstheproblems withthemethods youhaveused,ortheirmeaning.
Investment decision
Decision-making
process Payback
period
Relevant
cashflows Discounted
paybackperiod
ROCE/ARR
IRRadvantage
NPV
advantages
G H
100 Financial
Management
(FM)
PER alert
Performanceobjective9 requiresyou to ‘valueprojects,financialsecuritiesand instruments
and adviseon theircosts and benefitsto the organisation’.Thischapter concentrateson
valuingprojectsusingdiscountedcash flowtechniques
Capitalinvestmentprojectsinvolvethe outlayof large sumsof moneyinthe expectationof
benefitsthat may take severalyears to accrue.
Thedecisionwhetherto proceedwitha capital investmentprojectis normallymade by a capital
expenditurecommitteeoverseeinga process that includesthe followingphases:
(a) Idea creation (b) Screening (c) Financial (d) Review
analysis
Proposalscan be Toscreenout Adetailed appraisal Apost-completion
stimulatedby a unsuitableproposals of the project’srisk review(oraudit)
regularreviewof the by lookingat the and return,howit will aimsto learn from
company’s impact of the project be financed,any mistakesthat have
competitive on stakeholdersand alternativesto it and ariseninthe project
environmentand can whetherthey support the implicationsof appraisalprocess.
be encouragedby the organisation’s not acceptingthe
incentiveschemes. strategy. project.
Ifa team of workers,costing$300,000 per year, isdivertedto workon a newprojectthen they will
stop workon existingproductswhichearn contribution(iesales revenuelessvariablecost)of
$500,000,thiscontributionwillthereforebe lost(notethat thisassumesthat labouris a variable
cost).
Required
Calculatethe relevantcost associatedwithusingthe team of workerson the newproject.
5:Investment
decision 101
102 Financial
Management
(FM)
Notes.
1 Thematerialsinclude$10,000of surplusinventorythat Brendaand Eddiehaveintheirexisting
restaurants.Thisinventoryhas a scrap valueof $1,000.
2 Labourincludes20%of the $50,000 salary of a manager of an existingbranch, whowillassist
the existingmanager of the restaurantinits firstyear of operation.
3 Thisis an allocationof corporateoverheads.
Required
Assessthe relevantcash flowsof the projectinthe firstyear to Brendaand Eddieand advise
Brendaand Eddiewhetherthey are rightto be concerned.
Solution
G H
Essential reading
2 Simple techniques
5:Investment
decision 103
Brendaand Eddieare worriedabout the lengthof timeit willtake forthe cash flowsfromthe
ParkwayDinerto repay theirtotal investmentof $500,000 ($350,000to take overthe business
and $150,000to refurbishit).
Cash flowprojectionsfromthe projectare estimatedas:
Operatingcash flows
Year $
1 70,000
2 70,000
3 80,000
4 100,000
5 100,000
6 120,000
Afterthe sixthyear, Brendaand Eddieconfidentlyexpectthat they couldsellthe businessfor
$350,000.
Required
Calculatethe payback periodforthe project.
G
Solution H
104 Financial
Management
(FM)
or
ROCE = Averageannualprofit
Averageinvestment
Whereaverageinvestment=
Initialoutlay+ scrapvalue
2
G H
Illustration 2: ROCE
Required
Whatis the averageaccountingrate of returnforthisproject?(Giveyouranswerto the nearest
percentage.)
Solution
Averageinvestment= [$120,000(start)+$0 (end)]÷2 =$60,000
Averageprofits=[12,000+17,000+28,000 +37,000+8,000]÷5 (years)=$20,400
ARR=$20,400÷$60,000 =34%(thiscan also be referredto as ROIor ROCE).
Activity 3: ARR
5:Investment
decision 105
Solution
2.2.2 BenefitsofusingROCE/ARR
ROCEmethod isa quickandsimplecalculation
thatinvolves
thefamiliarconcept
ofa percentage
return.
Unlikepayback perioditdoesconsider
thewholeofa project’s
life.
Thefactthatitgivesa percentagemeasure meansthatROCEmakes iteasytocompare two
G
investment
options eveniftheyareofdifferent
sizes. H
2.2.3 GeneralproblemswithROCE/ARR
(a) Itisbasedonaccounting profits
andnotrelevantcashflows.ROCEistheonlyinvestment
appraisaltechnique
notbasedonrelevant cashflows.
(b) Itisa relative
measure
(iea percentage)
rather
thananabsolute measure
andtherefore
takesnoaccount ofthesizeoftheinvestment.
(c) Likethepayback method,ROCEignores thetimevalueofmoney.
Examfocus point
ROCE/ARR istheonlyproject
appraisal
techniquethatisbasedonprofit
instead
ofcashflow.
So,inthistechnique
(only)youwillneedtoincludedepreciation
inyourcalculations.
106 Financial
Management
(FM)
Solution
Wecan lookat thisintwoways:
Firstly,ifyou had $20,000today and investedit forone year ina projectof similarriskat 6%then
you wouldhave$20,000×1.06=$21,200(thisapproach is calledcompounding).
Thisis morethan is generated by the project,so the projectis not acceptable.
Alternatively,wecan reducethe futurecash flowof $21,000to reflectits worthifit was received
today:
$21,000×1/1.06=$19,811
Thisapproach is calleddiscounting.
$19,811 is the valuetoday, or the present value,of receiving$21,000inone year’stimeto reflect
the returnavailableto investors.
Again,wecan see that the projectis unacceptable because thispresentvalueis belowthe cost
(today)of the projectof $20,000.
Formula provided
5:Investment
decision 107
Calculate
thepresent
valueof$100,000received
inseven
years’time,ifthecostofcapitalis12%.
(Giveyouranswer
tothenearest$100.)
Solution
G H
3.4 Annuities
Annuity:
Aseries
ofequalcashflows.
KEY
TERM
Ifa project
involves
equalannualcashflows(orannuities)
theneachfuturecashflowcanbe
discountedseparately
backtoa presentvalue,butitisquicker
tousea singlediscount
factor
(calledanannuityfactorora cumulative
discountfactor).
Illustration4: Annuities
Ifa project
involved
theoutlayof$20,000todayandprovided
a definitereturn
of$8,000per
yearforthreeyearswouldyouaccepttheproject?
Assume thatyoucouldgeta returnof6%oninvestments
ofsimilar
risk.
Solution
Thiscanbeanalysed asa series
ofindividual
calculations,
obtaining thediscount
factors
fromthe
present
valuetable(fromthe6%column fortimeperiods
1,2 and3):
108 Financial
Management
(FM)
Formula provided
Formulaforan annuityfactor:
1−(1+ r)−n
G
r H
Activity 5: Annuities
5:Investment
decision 109
3.4.1 Perpetuities
Perpetuity:
Anannuity
thatoccurs
fortheforeseeable
future.
KEY
TERM
Iftheseries
ofcashflowsdoesnothaveanenddate(ieitisexpected fortheforeseeable
future)
thenthisiscalleda perpetuity.
Thiscanbedealtwithbyapplying
a singlediscount
factor,
but
thisrequires
theuseofa formulawhichyouwillneedtolearn:
Formulato learn
Theformula
fordiscounting
a perpetuity
is:
1
r
G
Illustration5: Perpetuities H
Ifa project
involved
theoutlayof$20,000todayandprovided
a definite
return
of$3,000peryear
fortheforeseeable
future.
Required
Wouldyouaccepttheproject?
(Again,assume
thatyoucouldgeta return
of6%oninvestments
ofsimilar
risk.)
Solution
Theperpetuity
factorhereis:
1/0.06
So,thepresent
valueofthefuturecashflowsis$3,000×1/0.06=$50,000
Andthepresent
valueoftheinflows
exceedsthecostoftheproject,
sotheproject
isacceptable.
3.4.2 Delayedannuitiesandperpetuities
Theapproaches demonstrated
intheprevioussections
forannuities
andperpetuitiesassumethat
thecashflowsbeginintime1andvaluetheseannuitiesorperpetuities
fromtheperspective
of
theprecedingtimeperiodtowhenthecashflowsbegin(ietime0,a present value).
Wherethefirstcashflowinanannuityisnotreceived
fromtime1thisiscalleda delayed
annuity.
Wherethisisthecase,theapproachtovaluinganannuityorperpetuitymustbeslightly
adjusted.
110 Financial
Management
(FM)
Ifa project
involved
theoutlayof$20,000todayandprovided
a definite
return
of$3,000peryear
fortheforeseeable
future
startinginthreeyears’time.
Required
Wouldyouaccepttheproject?
(Again,assume
thatyoucouldgeta return
of6%oninvestments
ofsimilar
risk.)
Solution
Asbefore, theperpetuityfactorhereis:1/0.06
So,thevalueofthefuture cashflowsis$50,000,asbefore.
However, thisvalueisfromtheperspective ofthepreceding timeperiod
towhenthecashflows
beginandherethecashflowsbeginattime3 sothevalueisfromtheperspective oftime2 (the
preceding timeperiod).
Thiscanbeadjusted toa time0 presentvaluebytreatingthe$50,000asa one-offcashflow
receivedintime2 andmultiplying itbythediscount factorfromthepresent
valuetableforperiod
2 at6%of0.890.
$50,000×0.890=$44,500
Thisisnowa present valueand,because thisishigher
thanthecashoutflowof$20,000,the
projectisacceptable.
Anannuityof$3,000perannum
foreightyearsstartsattheendofthethirdyearandfinishes
at
theendofthetenthyear.
Required
Whatisthepresent
valueoftheannuity
ifthediscount
rateis6%?(Giveyouranswer
tothe
nearest
$.)
Solution
3.4.3 Constantgrowth
Ifa series
ofcashflowsdoesnothaveanenddate(ieitisexpected fortheforeseeable
future)
and
isgrowing ata constantrate,thenthiscanbeconverted
intopresentvalueterms
byapplying
a
singlediscountfactorandisknown asa growing perpetuity.
Thisrequirestheuseofthefollowingformulafortheannuity
factor,
thisiscovered
numerically
in
section4 ofChapter13.
5:Investment
decision111
Essentialreading
SeeChapter 5 Section
2 oftheEssential
Reading,
available
inthedigitaledition
oftheWorkbook,
forfurtherdiscussion
ofthisareamainly
foranyonewhohasnotstudied thisareafora whileand
wouldlikesomefurther background,
theapproachusedforevaluating
constantly growing
cashflowsisalsointroduced.
TheEssentialreadingisavailable
asanAppendix
ofthedigitaledition
oftheWorkbook.
NPVnegative Return
frominvestment’s
cashinflows
below
costofcapital(don’tundertake
project)
NPV=0 Return
frominvestment’s
cashinflows
sameascostofcapital(theproject
will
beonlyjustworthundertaking)
Note.Weassume thatthecostofcapitalistheorganisation’s
targetrateofreturn
forproposed
investment
projects.
Oneoftheadvantages ofNPVisthatitgivesa clearandobjective
decisionrulewhichisthata
project
isacceptable
ifitsNPViszeroorabove.
Activity7: NPV
LCHmanufactures product
Xwhichitsellsfor$5perunit.Variable
costsofproductionare
currently
$3perunit.SalesofproductXareestimated tobe75,000unitsperannum.
Anewmachine isavailable
whichwould cost$90,000butwhichcouldbeusedtomakeproductX
fora variable
costofonly$2.50perunit.Fixedcosts,however,
would increase
by$7,500per
annum asa directresult
ofpurchasing
themachine.
Themachine would haveanexpectedlifeoffouryearsanda disposalvalueof$10,000.
LCHexpects toearnatleast12%perannum fromitsinvestments.
Required
UsingNPVanalysis,
should
LCHacquire
themachine?
112 Financial
Management
(FM)