FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS-2

(Estimation of Design Flood)

by
Muhammad Ajmal
PhD in Water Resources & Environmental Engineering (South Korea)
Associate Professor, Agri. Engg. Deptt. UET Peshawar
 Flood Frequency Analysis
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method:

Gumbel (1941) consider that annual flood peaks are extreme values of floods in
each of the annual series of recorded data. Hence, floods follow the extreme value
distribution.
–y
Probability, P = 1 – e –e
Return Period, T = 1/P
Where ഥ / σ] + 0.577
y = reduced variate = [1.282 (Q – Q)

Gumbel, E.J., (1941). The return period of flood flows: Annuals Math. Statistics, 12(2): 163-190.
 Flood Frequency Analysis

Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method:

ഥ + KT σ
Flood Magnitude for a given Return Period, QT = Q

Where
Frequency Factor,

T = Return Period

ഥ = Mean
Q
σ = Standard Deviation
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method
Return Period
Probability, P
Year Rainfall (mm) Reduced Variate, y (Years)
Tr = 1/P

2014 423 -0.99 0.93 1.07

2009 546 -0.20 0.71 1.42

2011 567 -0.07 0.66 1.52

2012 661 0.54 0.44 2.27

2010 857 1.80 0.15 6.58

2013 945 2.38 0.09 11.26

Mean 666.32
–y
S.D. 198.80 Probability, P = 1 – e –e
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method
1600
y = 208.1ln(x) + 459.46
1400

1200

1000
Rainfall
(mm) 800

600

400

200

0
1.00 10.00 100.00

Return Period (Years)

 Pearson Type III
 Named after the statistician Pearson, it is also called three-
parameter gamma distribution. A lower bound is introduced
through the third parameter (e)

 ( x − e )  −1 e −  ( x −e )
f ( x) = x  e ;  = gamma function
(  )

It is also a skewed distribution first applied in hydrology for describing the pdf of annual
maximum flows. 6
Log-Pearson Type III

 If log X follows a Person Type III distribution, then X

is said to have a log-Pearson Type III distribution
 ( y − e )  −1 e − ( y −e )
f ( x) = y = log x  e
(  )

7
 Flood Frequency Analysis

Log Pearson Type III Distribution Method:

Person (1930) developed this method. In this method, it is recommended to convert the
data series to logarithms and then compute the following.
1. Compute Logarithms of flow log Q = (𝑦i) ( for X=Q)
2. Estimate Average of log Q ഥ = (𝑦)
ത
3. Compute Standard Deviation σ log Q = σ (𝑦i)
4. Compute Skew Coefficient, ෍ 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄 − 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑄
3
𝑛 𝑖
ഥ 3) / (n-1)(n-2) (σlog Q)3
Cs = (n Σ (log Q – log Q) 𝐶𝑠 =
ഥ + KT (σlog Q) 𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2 σlog 𝑄 3
5. QT = log Q
where KT = log Pearson Frequency Factor based on Cs & Return Period
6. For Flood of any return period calculate: XT = antilog (QT) = 10𝑄𝑇
Flood Frequency Analysis
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -
Log Pearson Type III Distribution Method
Year Rainfall (mm) log Rainfall
2014 423 2.63
2009 546 2.74
2011 567 2.75
2012 661 2.82
2010 857 2.93
2013 945 2.98
log Mean 2.81
log S.D. 0.13

ത + K (σ log Q)
QT = log 𝑄
Thank you