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CHENNAI | THURSDAY, 9 NOVEMBER 2023 1
India’sprogressinreducingsocio-
economicdeprivationbetweenthetwo SLOW PROGRESS
surveys,NationalFamilyHealthSurvey- POVERTY RATE (IN %) lockdown,inApril2020,thegovernment
4(2015-16)andNFHS-5(2019-21).How- launchedPradhanMantriGaribKalyan
ever,itclarifiedthatthepovertyestima- 16 AnnaYojana(PMGKAY),whichprovided
tesmaynotfullyassesstheeffectsofthe 5kgoffreefoodgrainsperpersonper
Covid-19pandemiconpoverty,since monthto75percentoftheruraland
morethan70percentofthedata(NFHS- 14 50percentofurbanhouseholds.This
5)wascollectedbeforethepandemic. wasontopoftheusualprovisionof5kg
Accordingtothereport,between 13.37 monthlyfoodgrainsperpersonathighly
2015-16and2019-21,135millionpeople subsidisedpricesundertheNational
escapedmultidimensionalpoverty, 11.3 12 FoodSecurityAct(NFSA)tothesame
whichduringthesefiveyearsdeclined population.
from24.85percentto14.96percent. Thegovernmentwasalsoquickto
Ruralareaswitnessedafasterdeclinein increasetheallocationsunderthe
povertythanurbanareas.However,the 10 MahatmaGandhiNationalRural
MPI,whichmeasuressimultaneousdep- 2017-18 2022-23 EmploymentGuarantee(MGNREGA)
rivationsacrossthethreedimensionsof Note: At purchasing power parity of $2.15 per day
scheme,addingtotheruralemployment
healthandnutrition,education,andsta- per person Source: World Bank cushion.TheexpenditureonMGNREGA
ndardofliving,iscriticisedforincluding rosefrom~618billionin2018-19to~717
administrativeindicatorssuchasbank billionin2019-20,andfurtherto~1.1
accountsandelectricityconnections, Covidlevelsoonafter,andcontinued trillionin2020-21.Thegovernmentalso
trendsforwhicharealmostirreversible. todecline. transferred~500eachforthreemonths
AnInternationalMonetaryFund towomenJanDhanaccountholders
Thegreatpovertydebate (IMF)workingpaper,publishedinJuly duringthepandemic.
TheimpactofIndia'seconomicreforms thisyearandusingCPHSandPLFSdata, TheIMFworkingpaper,whichdid
ofthe1990sonpovertyreductionwas concludedpovertyincreaseddrastically notfactorinthetargetedbenefitsbythe
widelydebatedintheearly2000s.Nobel duringthelockdownperiod,reaching government,heldthatsincethefirst
LaureateAngusDeatonandeconomist morethanfourtimesofthe2019average waveofthepandemicledtoaverysharp
ValerieKozelchristenedit“TheGreat levelbasedonthe$1.9PPPline.Poverty declineinincomeandconsumptionfor
IndianPovertyDebate”,notingthat alsoincreasedduringthesecondwaveof mosthouseholds,narrowingthesupport
theclaimshadoftenbeenfrankly thepandemic,butthesituation throughincome-basedredistributionled
A GRAINY PICTURE
political,buttherewerealso improvedtowardthe tosomehouseholds
importantstatisticalissues. endof2021,and,asof fallingintopoverty.
About20yearslater,“TheGreatInd- thefourthquarterof “Thishighlightsthefact
ianPovertyDebateII”hasbeenfuelled 2021,thenumberof AN IMF WORKING thatwhenfacedwith
bythelackofofficialhouseholdconsu-
merexpendituresurveydataforthelast
peopleunderthe
$1.9linewaspractically
PAPER, PUBLISHED largeshocksitisbene-
ficialtoprovidesupport
11years,whichhasforcedeconomiststo backtothepre- IN JULY THIS YEAR AND usingschemeswith
MeasuringCovid’simpactonpovertyiscrucial,butithasbecome useproxiestoestimatetheextentofpov-
ertyreductioninthelastdecade,with
pandemiclevel.
AnalysisofPLFSdata
USING CPHS AND PLFS broadcoverageandthe
authorities’responseto
DATA, CONCLUDED
acontestedissueintheabsenceofgovernmentdata wildlyvariedresults.Thedebateintensi-
fiedrecentlywiththepandemic-induced
bytheauthorsshowed
thatmorethan50per POVERTY INCREASED
thepandemicthrough
increasingsupport
incomeshockbelievedtohavereversed
India’spovertyreductiontrajectory.
centofcasualworkers
losttheirjobsinthe
DRASTICALLY DURING throughthefood
subsidywasimportant
PewResearchCentre,inareport secondquarterof2020. THE LOCKDOWN inreducingpoverty,”
ASIT RANJAN MISHRA impactofthepandemiconpovertythan Accordingtofreshestimatesbythe publishedinMarch,2021,claimed “Althoughtherateofjob PERIOD itsaid.
New Delhi, 8 November initiallyprojected. WorldBank,extremepovertyfurther around75millionpeopleinIndiafellinto losswassignificantly Itadvisedthe
I
Theimpactofthepandemiconpov- declinedto11.3percentin2022-23,but extremepovertyin2020becauseofthe lowerforregularwage governmentthat
nOctober2022,theWorldBankput ertyandinequalityinIndiahasbeena thatwasstillabovethepre-pandemic pandemic.Incontrast,estimatespublis- andself-employed, ongoingeffortsto
outareportsayingnearly56million contestedissueintheabsenceofgovern- levelof11.09percentrecordedin2018-19. hedbySurjitBhalla,KaranBhasinand manypeopledidnotworkinthesecond improvetargetingshouldcontinue.
Indiansmighthaveplungedinto mentdata.EstimationoftheCovid Itwasasignalthatfurtherdeclinecould ArvindVirmaniinApril2022showedthe quarterof2020.Regularwageworkers “Improvingtargetingcanimprove
extremepovertyin2020-21asa impactonpovertyiscrucialforpolicy beachallenge. povertyrateremainedvirtually weremoreprotectedbecausesome outcomesintermsofpovertyreduction
resultoftheeconomicshockinducedby formulationasmanyanalystsbelievean IntheabsenceofHousehold unchangedduringthepandemicperiod, couldcontinuetoreceivewagesdespite andenhancetheeffectivenessofpublic
theCovid-19pandemic,increasingthe increaseinpovertyinIndiahasundone ConsumerExpenditureSurveydata at0.9percent(at$1.9PPP)duetothein- theirabsencefromwork,butthatwasnot expenditure,whichiscrucialwhen
globaltallyby71millionandmakingit severalyearsofprogressonthisfront. fromthegovernmentafter2011-12,the kindtransfers,suchasfreefoodgrains, thecaseforself-employedandcasual fiscalspaceislimited,”itsaid.
theworstyearforpovertyreduction ThoughIndiaisestimatedtohave multilaterallendinginstitutionused providingasocialsafetynet. workers,”itsaid. PrimeMinisterNarendraModion
sinceWorldWarII. maderemarkableprogressimproving datafromtheConsumerPyramids EconomistsArvindPanagariyaand Saturdayannouncedextensionofthe
Lastmonth,ayearsincethatreport welfareandreducingpovertyratesin HouseholdSurvey(CPHS)conductedby VishalMore,usingthePeriodLabour Reliefthroughtargetedsubsidies ongoingfreerationunderNFSAto
cameout,theBanksignificantlyadjust- recentdecades,extremepoverty(at$2.15 theCentreforMonitoringIndian ForceSurvey(PLFS)datainMarchthis BothBhallaaswellasPanagariyaargued continueforthenextfiveyears.Though
editsestimates,suggestingthatthe purchasingpowerparity)increasedby EconomytoestimatepovertyforIndia. yearconcludedthatonthequarterly thatthefreedistributionofanadditional itspoliticaldividendswillbetestedin
numberofpeoplewhofellintopovertyin twopercentagepointsto14.7percentin Meanwhile,inJulythisyear,theNITI basis,ruralpovertysawamodestrise 5kgfoodgrainsandcashtransfers theongoingAssemblyelections,it
Indiain2020-21wasapproximately thepandemicyearof2020-21before AayogreleasedtheNationalMultidim- onlyduringthestrictlockdownquarter arrestedasharperdeclineinpoverty. highlightsthetoughbattleagainst
29.5million.Thisindicatesalesssevere decliningto11.9percentin2021-22. ensionalPovertyIndex(MPI),capturing ofApril-June2020,butfellbelowthepre- Almostconcurrentlywiththestrict povertythatliesahead.
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