AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY 12:327–338 (2000)

Secular Change in Craniofacial Morphology

R.L. JANTZ* AND LEE MEADOWS JANTZ
Department of Anthropology, University of Tennessee,
Knoxville, Tennessee

ABSTRACT Five craniofacial variables (glabella−occipital length,

basion−bregma height, maximum cranial breadth, nasion−prosthion height,
and bizygomatic breadth) were used to examine secular change in morphol-
ogy from the mid-19th century to the 1970s. The 19th century data were
obtained from the Terry and Hamann-Todd anatomical collections, and the
20th century data were obtained from the forensic anthropology databank.
Data were available for Blacks and Whites of both sexes. Secular change was
evaluated by regressing cranial variables on year of birth. Two analyses were
conducted, one using the original variables and one using size and shape. Size
is defined as the geometric mean of the cranial variables, and shape is the
ratio of each variable to size. The results show remarkable changes in the size
and shape of the cranial vault. Vault height increases in all groups in both
absolute and relative terms. The vault also becomes longer and narrower, but
these changes are less pronounced. Face changes are less than the vault
changes, but to the extent that they occur, the face becomes narrower and
higher. Overall cranial vault size has increased, but shape changes are
greater than size changes. The magnitude of secular change in vault height
exceeds that for long bones over a comparable time period, but follows a
similar course, which suggests that vault height and bone length respond to
the same forces. Changes in vault dimensions must occur by early childhood
because of the early development of the vault. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 12:327–338,
2000. © 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Plasticity in the craniofacial skeleton has characteristics (Cameron et al., 1990). It

been of interest since Boas (1940) demon-
strated changes in the descendants of immi-
grants in 1910. Short-term changes involv-
ing one or two generations (Smith et al.,
1986; Cameron et al., 1990) are presumably
mainly environmental, while longer-term
changes, such as the well-known brachy-
cephalization (Schwidetzky and Rösing,
1990) in Europe, likely involve both genetic
and environmental components. Certain
craniofacial changes occurring during the
Holocene involve gracilization (Schwidetzky
and Rösing, 1990; Henneberg, 1988; Goose,
1981) and presumably result to a consider-
able extent from reduced functional de-
mands.
Human growth and adult body size re-
spond to environmental conditions (Komlos,
1994; Fogel, 1995; Steegmann and Hasely,
1988; Steckel, 1994), and secular changes
have been documented for many human
has even been possible to link stature to
availability of specific nutrients (Baten,
1996). Although plasticity of the cranium
is generally recognized, it is usually con-
sidered less labile than height or other
body dimensions. However, cranial secular
changes in American populations have been
documented. Angel (1982) proposed that the
cranial base, being a weight-bearing struc-
ture, would respond to poor nutrition. Dif-
ferences in cranial dimensions between 19th
century anatomical collections and 20th cen-
tury samples have been documented (Jantz
and Moore-Jansen, 1988; Moore-Jansen,
Contract grant sponsor: the National Institute of Justice; Con-
tract grant numbers: 86-IJ-CX-0021, 87-IJ-CX-0038.
*Correspondence to: R.L. Jantz, Department of Anthropology,
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-0720. E-mail:
jantz@utkux.utk.edu
Received 8 December 1998; Revision received 12 April 1999;
Accepted 15 April 1999

© 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

PROD #M98121R
328 R.L. JANTZ AND L. MEADOWS JANTZ

TABLE 1. Sample sizes by decade of birth for vault and face

White males White females Black males Black females
Vault Face Vault Face Vault Face Vault Face
1840–1849 4 4 0 0 3 3 1 1
1850–1859 18 18 2 2 3 3 3 3
1860–1869 17 17 5 5 12 12 6 6
1870–1879 34 34 20 20 24 24 11 11
1880–1889 24 24 32 32 28 28 25 25
1890–1899 6 5 23 23 20 20 38 38
1900–1909 16 14 21 18 44 38 31 25
1910–1919 25 18 22 18 29 24 23 20
1920–1929 35 25 19 14 12 10 7 5
1930–1939 48 39 14 11 17 12 6 5
1940–1949 51 40 19 18 13 8 9 9
1950–1959 55 46 45 43 11 7 25 23
1960–1969 22 22 33 27 15 9 12 6
1970–1979 10 5 11 8 2 2 4 4
Total 365 311 266 239 233 200 201 181

1989; Ousley and Jantz, 1997), but no sys-
tematic examination of the magnitude and
pattern of these changes has been under-
taken.
The availability of craniofacial measure-
ments on 20th century Americans makes it
possible to examine secular changes in cra-
niofacial structure over the time period from
the 1840s to 1975. This article explores
secular changes over the past 135 years in
size and shape of the neurocranium and
facial skeleton in American Whites and
Blacks.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cranial samples of individuals with 19th
century birth dates were available from the
Terry and Hamann-Todd collections, and
20th century birth dates were available from
the forensic anthropology databank (FDB)
(Jantz and Moore-Jansen, 1988; Ousley and
Jantz, 1997). The anatomical collections
and forensic data represent two very differ-
ent sampling strategies. The Terry and
Hamann-Todd collections by and large rep-
resent the less well-off societal segments of
St. Louis and Cleveland, respectively. The
FDB includes measurements from recent fo-
rensic cases that passed through various
identification laboratories in the US. Also
included in the FDB are data obtained from
the skeletons of donated or unclaimed bod-
ies. The latter are principally from the Uni-
versity of Tennessee and the University of
New Mexico. Several 20th century additions
to the Terry collection were also included.
The sampling strategy of the FDB has
been termed “exotic” (Giles, 1993), and in a
sense it is. Approximately 50% of the indi-
viduals in the databank died from homicide
or suicide. Such manners of death are atypi-
cal of the general population, and may be
related to socioeconomic or other factors
that could be systematically related to cra-
nial dimensions. Anatomical collections, on
the other hand, are biased in other ways, for
example, age. The databank yields a sample
with more young people than the anatomi-
cal collections (Ousley and Jantz, 1997). The
purpose of the FDB was to obtain data from
modern individuals for use in establishing
up-to-date skeletal identification criteria
(Jantz and Moore-Jansen, 1988; Ousley and
Jantz, 1997). The sampling framework
seems appropriate for that purpose, since
the identification criteria are applied to the
population from which the sample was
drawn. Compared to the anatomical collec-
tions, the FDB sample is regionally much
more diverse. It represents a national
sample, with some bias toward the South-
east, Northeast, and Southwest. The foren-
sic sample has been used on a number of
occasions for general human biology re-
search, and this seems appropriate, since no
sample is ever likely to be truly random and
since it has yet to be demonstrated that a
forensic sample differs systematically from
the general population in skeletal dimen-
sions.
Table 1 summarizes the samples by sex,
group, and decade of birth. Dates of birth for
individuals from the Terry and Hamann-
Todd collections were obtained from the re-
cords. These may, in some cases, be esti-
mates, as evidenced from age heaping (Katz
and Suchey, 1986). They are unlikely to be
off by more than a few years, which should
 CRANIOFACIAL SECULAR CHANGE 329

TABLE 2. R2 and probabilities for first, second, and third order polynomial models for
craniofacial variables
White males White females Black males Black females
P R2 P R2 P R2 P R2
Glabello–occipital length
First order 0.000 0.0638 0.003 0.0327 0.766 0.0004 0.356 0.0043
Second order 0.562 0.0647 0.046 0.0472 0.881 0.0005 0.131 0.0157
Third order 0.008 0.0825 0.804 0.0474 0.072 0.0145 0.297 0.0212
Basion–bregma height
First order 0.000 0.2533 0.000 0.2246 0.000 0.1410 0.000 0.1510
Second order 0.696 0.2536 0.076 0.2357 0.000 0.2203 0.000 0.1997
Third order 0.174 0.2590 0.722 0.2362 0.009 0.2511 0.873 0.1998
Maximum breadth
First order 0.002 0.0261 0.000 0.0604 0.162 0.0084 0.036 0.0174
Second order 0.158 0.0318 0.060 0.0737 0.341 0.0128 0.315 0.0216
Third order 0.648 0.0322 0.828 0.0739 0.316 0.0177 0.168 0.0324
Bizygomatic breadth
First order 0.001 0.0353 0.001 0.0471 0.133 0.0114 0.014 0.0334
Second order 0.105 0.0435 0.004 0.0801 0.710 0.0121 0.967 0.0334
Third order 0.919 0.0436 0.572 0.0814 0.111 0.0248 0.014 0.0659
Nasion–prosthion height
First order 0.094 0.0091 0.020 0.0227 0.829 0.0002 0.506 0.0025
Second order 0.939 0.0091 0.129 0.0322 0.348 0.0048 0.125 0.0156
Third order 0.763 0.0097 0.763 0.0332 0.911 0.0048 0.924 0.0157

matter little in the 135 years the sample structed by dividing each original variable
covers. Nearly all those individuals in the by its respective size. Size defined in this
FDB had known ages and death dates, from manner is isometric size (Jungers et al.,
which birth date could be calculated. In a 1995) and the shape variables are relative
few instances, the age at death was un- to size.
known and was estimated from skeletal cri- Secular changes in craniofacial dimen-
teria. Again, the error will not exceed a few sions were assessed using polynomial re-
years. The race designation was taken from gression, fitting terms through 3rd order:
records in the anatomical collections. For in-
dividuals in the FDB it was obtained from y ⳱ b0 + b1x + b2x2 + b3x3
missing persons reports, death certificates,
driver’s licenses, police reports, or other re-
where y is a cranial variable and x is year of
cords. In no case is the designation based on
a morphological assessment of the skeleton birth. We use polynomial regression to de-
(see Ousley and Jantz, 1997). scribe changes over the last 135 years and to
We use five craniofacial dimensions: gla- provide tests of significance. The actual
bello-occipital length, basion-bregma shape of the changes is shown by plotting
height, maximum cranial breadth, nasion- mean cranial variables grouped into decade
prosthion height, and bizygomatic breadth. of birth.
The first three characterize vault size and Time series data such as these are often
shape, the last two face size and shape. autocorrelated. Autocorrelation was evalu-
Secular trend analysis was conducted on the ated by the Durban-Watson test. Many of
raw variables individually and on size and the variables exhibited significant autocor-
shape variables. Two size variables were relation, which can affect the usual tests of
constructed, one for the vault and one for significance. We therefore tested the regres-
the face. Size was defined according to Dar-sion coefficients associated with successive
roch and Mosimann (1985) as: polynomial terms by randomizing the cra-
niofacial variable 100 times, computing re-
gression coefficients each time. The stan-
Vault size ⳱ (cranial length × cranial dard deviation of the randomized regression
1/3
height × cranial breadth) . coefficients provides a standard error for
Face size ⳱ (upper facial height × bizy- each term. Probabilities obtained from ran-
gomatic breadth)1/2. domization were virtually identical to those
obtained from parametric tests, so only the
Vault and face shape variables were con- latter are presented.
330 R.L. JANTZ AND L. MEADOWS JANTZ
Fig. 1. Plot of basion–bregma height by decade mean.
RESULTS
Raw variables
Table 2 gives the probabilities and R2 val-
ues associated with each craniofacial vari-
able. Cranial vault height shows the most
consistent and strongest relationship to
year of birth in all groups. In all groups the
R2 of the significant polynomial regressions
is 0.2 or higher, indicating correlation with
year of birth of 0.4–0.5. Whites of both sexes
exhibit only a significant linear trend, while
Blacks of both sexes exhibit more complex
relationships to year of birth: cubic in males
and quadratic in females.
Vault length and breadth exhibit signifi-
cant temporal patterning in Whites, but in
Blacks only vault breadth could be consid-
ered significant. In the face, White males
and females and Black females exhibit sig-
nificant change in face breadth, but only
White females exhibit any change in face
height.
Figure 1 shows plots of basion-bregma
height by decade mean. White males exhibit
an astonishingly regular increase in vault
height. The increase progresses across all
decades except for a brief downturn in
1880–1889. White females also exhibit pro-
gressive increases across most decades. In
Blacks the significant curvilinear trend
comes from the decreasing vault height af-
ter about 1870 followed by recovery, par-
ticularly for Black males.
In the face, bizygomatic breadth exhibits
significant change in all groups except
Black males, but nasion-prosthion is signifi-
cant only in White females. The R2 is higher
in females than males, indicating more pro-
nounced changes in face breadth. Figure 2
shows the plots of face breadth. A general
trend toward narrower faces can be dis-
cerned.
Since vault length and breadth and face
height show weaker and in some cases non-
significant relationships with year of birth,
plots are not shown. The plots (basion-
bregma height, bizygomatic breadth) or in-
spection of the regression coefficients
 CRANIOFACIAL SECULAR CHANGE
Fig. 2. Plot bizygomatic breadth by decade of birth.
clearly show that the overall changes in the
absolute craniofacial dimensions are toward
higher, longer vaults, and narrower vaults
and faces.
Size and shape
Table 3 shows the probability and R2 as-
sociated with overall vault and face size and
each shape variable. All groups except
Black females exhibit a significant relation-
ship of vault size with year of birth. The
relationship is stronger in Whites than
Blacks and stronger in males than in fe-
males. Figure 3 shows that the general in-
crease in White males is interrupted by de-
creases in the late 19th century and again in
the mid-20th century. White females show a
general increase from the mid-19th century
to early 20th century, after which there is a
slight decline. Blacks of both sexes show a
mid-19th century decline, after which males
gradually increase and females become er-
ratic.
Vault dimensions taken relative to size
generally show that the changes in vault di-
mensions reflect shape rather than overall
size. The significant relationship seen above
for raw vault length disappears in Whites,
331
but strengthens slightly in Blacks, suggest-
ing that it is size-related in Whites but rep-
resents a shape change in Blacks. Relative
vault height exhibits approximately the
same pattern as the raw dimension, indicat-
ing that the vault height change reflects a
change in vault shape; vaults are becoming
relatively and absolutely higher. Figure 4
shows the plot of relative vault height.
Whites, particularly males, exhibit a regu-
lar increase. Blacks show an increase after
1900. Prior to 1900, Black males exhibit a
decrease, while Black females are irregular.
Relative cranial breadth is significantly
related to year of birth in all groups. The
R2s are much greater than those observed
for raw cranial breadth, indicating that the
change is primarily a shape change. In
Whites the change is limited to the linear
component, but Blacks provide evidence of a
quadratic trend. Figure 5 shows the decade
means for relative vault breath, clearly in-
dicating its decrease. In Blacks, the qua-
dratic is seen to result from an increase
from the 1865s to 1895, followed by progres-
sive decline. It can be observed that Blacks
have relatively narrower crania than
Whites. Prior to 1900, group differences are
332 R.L. JANTZ AND L. MEADOWS JANTZ

TABLE 3. R2 and probabilities for first, second, and third order polynomial models for craniofacial size and
shape variables
White males White females Black males Black females
P R2 P R2 P R2 P R2
Vault size
First order 0.000 0.0943 0.000 0.0505 0.031 0.0200 0.083 0.0151
Second order 0.219 0.0980 0.004 0.0799 0.072 0.0336 0.057 0.0329
Third order 0.027 0.1102 0.985 0.0799 0.008 0.0629 0.248 0.0395
Relative glabello–occipital length
First order 0.435 0.0017 0.534 0.0015 0.002 0.0402 0.001 0.0585
Second order 0.660 0.0022 0.947 0.0015 0.050 0.0561 0.984 0.0585
Third order 0.140 0.0085 0.738 0.0019 0.637 0.0570 0.849 0.0587
Relative basion–bregma height
First order 0.000 0.2303 0.000 0.2694 0.000 0.1766 0.000 0.2186
Second order 0.582 0.2309 0.979 0.2694 0.000 0.2690 0.001 0.2618
Third order 0.920 0.2309 0.507 0.2706 0.084 0.2785 0.347 0.2651
Relative maximum breadth
First order 0.000 0.2029 0.000 0.1954 0.000 0.0757 0.000 0.0900
Second order 0.470 0.2040 0.882 0.1955 0.001 0.1214 0.001 0.1400
Third order 0.133 0.2090 0.804 0.1957 0.190 0.1280 0.426 0.1427
Face size
First order 0.824 0.0005 0.719 0.0006 0.352 0.0044 0.107 0.0144
Second order 0.368 0.0031 0.011 0.0273 0.589 0.0059 0.239 0.0221
Third order 0.779 0.0034 0.555 0.0288 0.441 0.0089 0.302 0.0280
Relative bizygomatic breadth
First order 0.000 0.0406 0.000 0.0632 0.398 0.0039 0.356 0.0048
Second order 0.408 0.0427 0.866 0.0634 0.246 0.0108 0.135 0.0173
Third order 0.824 0.0429 0.976 0.6346 0.245 0.0176 0.103 0.0319
Relative nasion–prosthion height
First order 0.000 0.0406 0.000 0.0666 0.453 0.0029 0.385 0.0042
Second order 0.370 0.0431 0.995 0.0666 0.284 0.0087 0.146 0.0160
Third order 0.820 0.0433 0.854 0.0667 0.259 0.0151 0.116 0.0297

greater than after 1900, and by the 1960s
there is little difference between groups.
The vault breadth shape pattern is a
complement of the vault height shape
curves seen in Figure 4. Together they show
the remarkable change to a higher, nar-
rower cranium.
Only White females exhibit significant
secular change in face size, and only Whites
are significant for relative face breadth and
height. Whites of both sexes exhibit a de-
crease in face breath and an increase in face
height.
DISCUSSION
The results present a clear picture of
secular changes in craniofacial morphology.
Shape changes are more pronounced than
those of size. In general, the cranial vault
becomes higher, both relatively and abso-
lutely, and relatively narrower. Changes in
the face are less marked, but to the extent
that they occur they show a narrowing and
heightening of the face.
Changes in vault morphology, especially
vault height, parallel, at least approxi-
mately, those observed in height. Heights of
Americans begin to decline during the sec-
ond quarter of the 19th century (Steckel,
1994; Komlos, 1997), reach a minimum in
the 1880s or early 1890s, and begin to re-
cover at the turn of the century (Steckel and
Haurin 1994). Vault height in males, the ap-
propriate comparison for stature, also
shows a minimum in the decade 1880–1889.
The correlations of vault morphology with
year of birth are stronger than those for long
bones or stature (Meadows Jantz, 1996;
Meadows Jantz and Jantz, in press). This
can be shown by plotting long bone and
vault dimensions as z-scores. Figure 6
shows the decade means of femur, tibia, and
vault height expressed as z-scores from
1845 to 1975. The greater change in vault
height can easily be seen in the steeper
slope. Vault height and long bones follow a
similar course, differing mainly in the na-
ture of early and late changes. Long bones
and vault height show a steep and almost
parallel increase from 1895 to 1925. After
1925, both vault height and long bones show
deceleration in secular change, but decel-
eration is more marked in the long bones,
the femur even showing decline from 1935
to 1945 before recovering. The similarity in
the course of secular change in vault height
 CRANIOFACIAL SECULAR CHANGE
Fig. 3. Plot of vault size (geometric mean of length, breadth, and height) by decade of birth.
and bone length would suggest that they are
responding to similar forces.
Cameron et al. (1990) also found agree-
ment between femur length, cranial base
height index, and cranial index in South Af-
rican Blacks during the period 1880–1934.
Although the trend in South Africa was
negative, Cameron et al. (1990) also con-
cluded that vault dimensions and long bone
length were responding to the same envi-
ronmental factors.
Angel (1982) argued that cranial base
height reflected nutritional stress or poor
health because its ability to sustain the
weight of the brain would be compromised.
We have used basion-bregma height, which
includes both vault and cranial base height
components. Although we did not sepa-
rately examine vault height and base height
components, it seems unlikely that secular
change is limited to base height. Angel’s
(1982) data show that vault height changes
more than base height when expressed in
standard deviation units rather than as a
percentage. In South Africa, however, base
height changes exceed those of vault height
(Cameron et al., 1990). It is likely that nei-
333
ther base height nor vault height captures
the complex changes that may occur in the
cranial base, such as those identified by
Rieder et al. (1985) in medieval to modern
changes in Germany.
Timing of growth of the cranial vault,
which follows the neural growth pattern,
imposes a fairly tight window during which
it can be affected. Although the vault grows
slowly until 18 years of age, brain volume is
75% complete by 3 years (Roche, 1986). The
growth curve of the face, by contrast, follows
the general pattern of growth seen for body
dimensions. Buschang et al. (1983) observed
that although craniofacial dimensions scale
negatively with stature, the scaling coeffi-
cient for face height is much higher than
that for vault height (major axis slope ca.
0.6 and 0.24 for face height and vault
height, respectively). Hence, the factors op-
erating to increase vault height and de-
crease breadth must do so mainly during
early growth.
The pattern of secular change in cranio-
facial variables and the postcranial skeleton
at first seems somewhat contradictory.
Long bones and stature follow the general
334 R.L. JANTZ AND L. MEADOWS JANTZ
Fig. 4. Plot of relative basion–bregma height (basion–bregma ht./vault size), by decade of birth.
growth curve, while vault height follows the
neural growth curve. Yet the facial skeleton,
most similar to stature and long bones in its
growth pattern, exhibits little secular
change, while the vault exhibits a more pro-
nounced secular change. That may be be-
cause principal effects of secular changes oc-
cur early in the growth period (Bock and
Sykes, 1989), or even during fetal growth
(Alberman et al., 1991). It is therefore rea-
sonable to suppose that vault dimensions,
experiencing their most intense growth
early in life, would be most strongly affected
by early insults, as has been proposed
(Clark et al., 1986).
There are several additional factors
known to influence cranial morphology that
should be addressed, although it is unlikely
that they can account for the changes re-
ported in this article.
Aging
There is evidence that vault size increases
with age (Ruff, 1980). It is unlikely that age
at death could explain any of this increase,
since the age at death of the 19th century
anatomical collection is higher than the 20th
century, mostly forensic, sample. Further,
Ruff (1980) argued that age changes are
principally size, while shape exhibits the
most pronounced secular changes.
Sampling strategy
Roche (1979) argued that it is necessary
to sample the same population if changes
are to be identified as purely secular. In the
present instance, it is unlikely that popula-
tion changes resulting from immigration or
migration can be responsible, at least in any
direct sense. In the span of 135 years, the
American population changed from a low-
headed population to one of the highest in
the world. Hence, there is no source from
which high-headed immigrants could come
to effect the changes seen here.
Functional responses
Craniofacial plasticity is often thought of
as reflecting functional responses, primarily
masticatory stresses (Larsen, 1997). It
seems likely that there has been some re-
duction in masticatory stresses over the
 CRANIOFACIAL SECULAR CHANGE
Fig. 5. Plot of relative cranial breadth (maximum cranial breadth/face size), by decade of birth.
roughly 135 years represented in the
sample. Carlson and Van Gerven (1977) de-
veloped a functional model that predicts
higher, shorter cranial vaults when func-
tional demands are reduced. Cranial vaults
are indeed higher, but vault length in-
creases, either absolutely (Whites) or rela-
tively (Blacks). Indeed, the trend toward
brachycephalization so commonly observed
in European populations has apparently re-
versed in the past 135 years in American
populations, as well as in Europe (Susanne
et al., 1985). It does not seem that the func-
tional model has much relevance to vault
changes observed in American populations.
Possibly the reduction in face breadth re-
flects the continued gracilization of the
skull (Schwidetzky and Rösing, 1990) and
that this is mostly or partly functional in
origin.
Another trend which has apparently re-
versed over the past 135 years is that of de-
creasing vault size. Henneberg (1988) has
shown that vault size, as measured by cra-
nial capacity, has decreased some 150 cc
since Mesolithic times, a decrease he attrib-
utes to overall structural reduction. Signifi-
cant size increase is observed in three of the
335
four groups used here. It is most pro-
nounced in White males. If size is translated
into cranial capacity using the regression
formulae of Pearson (cited in Comas, 1960),
one observes a 150 cc increase over the past
135 years. This size increase is undoubtedly
the same phenomenon as the increase in
brain weight observed in the London popu-
lation from 1860 to 1940 (Miller and Cor-
sellis, 1977).
We conclude that the changes observed in
this study, particularly those of the vault,
are most likely driven by changes in nutri-
tion and health. The environmental changes
in the past century in Western, particularly
North American, populations have been un-
paralleled in human experience. During
most of human existence, general nutrition
has ranged from poor to adequate and activ-
ity levels have been high. By contrast, in
modern America overnutrition and inactiv-
ity are now so common that obesity is a
more serious health problem than hunger.
Changes such as those observed here
would also normally be considered mainly
environmental and to reflect little or no ge-
netic change. It may be unwise to exclude
the possibility of substantial genetic change
336 R.L. JANTZ AND L. MEADOWS JANTZ

Fig. 6. Comparison of z-scores for basion–bregma height, femur length (a), and tibia length (b), by decade of
birth.
 CRANIOFACIAL SECULAR CHANGE
at this stage of our knowledge. Accompany-
ing secular changes in height, long bone
length, and cranial morphology in the
American population has been a remark-
able decline in infant and childhood mortal-
ity (Malina, 1979). In Europe, secular in-
creases in height are strongly related to
decreases in postneonatal mortality
(Schmidt et al., 1995). Infant and postneo-
natal mortality reflect general quality of
life, including health and nutritional factors
which influence growth. But what is not un-
derstood is the extent to which infant and
postneonatal mortality interact with growth
potential. Many infants and children sur-
vive today who would not have had they
been born in the last century. The extent to
which genetic differences in growth poten-
tial exist between survivors and nonsurvi-
vors in the last century is the extent to
which the gene pool might have changed in
this respect.
We have demonstrated what can only be
described as a remarkable secular change in
craniofacial morphology, especially in the
cranial vault, over the past 135 years. The
response of the cranium to changing condi-
tions might suggest that vault morphology,
especially vault height, could be used to in-
fer conditions under which earlier popula-
tions were living. That may be possible, up
to a point. For example, vault heights are
very low in 16th and 17th century Londoners,
such as Farringdon Street (Hooke, 1926)
and Spitalfields (Molleson and Cox, 1993).
This coincides with a population increase in
Europe generally (Komlos, 1995) and Lon-
don in particular (Molleson and Cox, 1993),
and the period is marked by stature decline
(Komlos, 1993). Vault heights are also low
in Colonial America (Shapiro, 1930; Angel,
1976; Jantz et al., 1998). But vault morphol-
ogy and its secular change must also be
population-specific. The secular changes in
vault morphology in Japan (Kouchi and Koi-
zumi, 1992) are very different from the ones
we observe in America. In other instances,
there may be little change over a short pe-
riod of time (Molleson and Cox, 1992) and
stasis may involve thousands of years (Rös-
ing, 1992). In yet other instances, vault
height may exhibit long-term changes that
have no apparent relationship to the health
and nutrition of the populations, such as the
reduction in vault height in the Central and
Northern Plains (Jantz and Willey, 1983).
337
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The forensic anthropology databank was
supported by the National Institute of Jus-
tice grant No. 86-IJ-CX-0021 and data col-
lection of the Terry and Haman-Todd collec-
tions by National Institute of Justice grant
No. 87-IJ-CX-0038. We are grateful to all
those who contributed data to the forensic
databank.
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