Basic and Diagnostic Structured Analytic Techniques

Figure 5-8. Association matrix example

Figure 5-9. Activities matrix example

ATP 2-33.4 5-11

Chapter 5

EVENT TREE
5-22. The event tree is a structured analytic technique that enables analysts to depict a possible sequence of
events, including the potential branches of that sequence in a graphical format. An event tree works best
when there are multiple, mutually exclusive options that cover the spectrum of reasonable alternatives. It
clarifies the presumed sequence of events or decisions between an initiating event and an outcome. Table 5-6
briefly describes when to use the event tree technique, as well as the value added and potential pitfalls
associated with this using technique. The following are pointers for analysts using the event tree technique:
Use this technique in conjunction with weighted ranking, hypothesis-review techniques, and
subjective probability to gain added insights.
Leverage the expertise of a group of analysts during the construction of an event tree to ensure all
events, factors, and decision options are considered.
Table 5-6. Event tree technique
Event tree: A graphical depiction of a potential temporal sequence of events, including potential junctures within the event sequence.
When to use Value added Potential pitfalls
Analysts can use an event tree to clarify An event tree is a visual tool that An intelligence failure can occur when
alternative event sequences with analysts can use to the threat selects an unforeseen option
potential future outcomes or at least options with decision points, which may arising from ignorance or when an
unknown outcomes related to an provide insight into potential threat unidentified event occurs.
intelligence problem. vulnerabilities. Event trees also provide
an excellent method of determining
collection requirements for indications
that a decision has been made or events
have unfolded in one of the alternative
branches of the tree.

5-23. Method. The following outlines the steps for creating event trees (see figure 5-10):
Step 1: Identify the intelligence issue/problem (antigovernment protest in Egypt).
Step 2: Identify the mutually exclusive and complete set of hypotheses that pertain to the
intelligence issue/problem (Mubarak resigns or Mubarak stays).
Step 3: Decide which events, factors, or decisions (such as variables) will have the greatest
influence on the hypotheses identified in step 2.
Step 4: Decide on the sequencing for when these factors are expected to occur or affect one
another.
Step 5: Determine the event options (Mubarak stays hardline, reforms, some reforms) within
each hypothesis and establish clear definitions for each event option to ensure collection strategies
to monitor events are effective.
Step 6: Construct the event tree from left to right. Each hypothesis is a separate main branch. Start
with the first hypothesis and have one branch from this node for each realistic path the first event
can take. Proceed down each event option node until the end state for that subbranch is reached.
Then move to the next hypothesis and repeat the process.
Step 7: Determine what would indicate a decision has been made at each decision point for each
option to use in generating an integrated collection plan.
Step 8: Assess the implications of each hypothesis on the intelligence problem.

5-12 ATP 2-33.4