Chapter 6

Outside-in thinking technique: Identifying the full range of basic factors and trends that
indirectly shape an issue.
Red hat/team analysis technique: Modeling the behavior of an individual or group by trying to
replicate how a threat would think about an issue.

BRAINSTORMING
6-20. Brainstorming is a widely used technique for stimulating new thinking; it can be applied to most other
structured analytic techniques as an aid to thinking. Brainstorming is most effective when analysts have a
degree of subject matter expertise on the topic of focus.
6-21. Brainstorming should be a very structured process to be most productive. An unconstrained, informal
discussion might produce some interesting ideas, but usually a more systematic process is the most effective
way to break down mindsets and produce new insights. The process involves a divergent thinking phase to
generate and collect new ideas and insights, followed by a convergent thinking phase for grouping and
organizing ideas around key concepts. Table 6-6 briefly describes when to use the brainstorming technique,
as well as the value added and potential pitfalls associated with using this technique.
Table 6-6. Brainstorming structured technique
Brainstorming: A technique that involves a group process for generating new ideas and concepts.
When to use Value added Potential pitfalls
Typically, analysts apply structured This technique can maximize creativity There may not be enough time to apply
brainstorming when they begin a project in the thinking process. Structured structured brainstorming correctly, to
to help generate a range of hypotheses brainstorming allows analysts to see a include establishing rules and
about an issue or when amplifying other wider range of factors that might bear on generating ideas. Additionally, analysts
analytic techniques. the topic than they would otherwise
consider. It can spark new ideas, ensure
a comprehensive look at a problem,
raise questions, and prevent premature
consensus.

6-22. Method. As a two-phase process, brainstorming elicits the most information from brainstorming
participants:
Phase 1 Divergent thinking phase:
Step 1: Distribute a piece of stationery with adhesive and pens/markers to all participants.
Typically, a group of 10 to 12 people works best.
Step 2: Pose the problem in terms of a focal question. Display it in one sentence on a large
easel or whiteboard.
Step 3: Ask the group to write down responses to the question, using key words that will fit
on the small piece of stationery.
Step 4: Stick all of the notes on a wall for all to see treat all ideas the same.
Step 5: When a pause follows the initial flow of ideas, the group is reaching the end of its
collective conventional thinking, and new divergent ideas are then likely to emerge. End
phase 1 of the brainstorming after two or three pauses.
Phase 2 Convergent thinking phase:
Step 6: Ask group participants to rearrange the notes on the wall according to their
commonalities or similar concepts. Discourage talking. Some notes may be moved several
times as they begin to cluster. Copying some notes is permitted to allow ideas to be included
in more than one group.
Step 7: Select a word or phrase that characterizes each grouping or cluster once all of the
notes have been arranged.
Step 8: Identify any notes that do not easily fit with others and consider them as either isolated
thoughts or the beginning of an idea that deserves further attention.
Step 9: Assess what the group has accomplished in terms of new ideas or concepts identified
or new areas that require more work or further brainstorming.

6-8 ATP 2-33.4

 Advanced Structured Analytic Techniques

Step 10: Instruct each participant to select one or two areas that deserve the most attention.
Tabulate the votes.
Step 11:
steps for analysis.

FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS USING CRITICAL FACTORS ANALYSIS

6-23. Critical factors analysis (CFA) is an overarching analytic framework that assists analysts in identifying
threat critical capabilities, threat critical requirements, and threat critical vulnerabilities that they can integrate
into other structured analytic techniques. This assists friendly forces in effectively identifying windows of
opportunity and threat vulnerabilities. At echelons above corps, CFA assists in identifying threat centers of
gravity that friendly forces can use for operational planning:
Critical capability is a means that is considered a crucial enabler for a center of gravity to function
as such and is essential to the accomplishment of the specified or assumed objective(s) (JP 5-0).
Critical requirement is an essential condition, resource, or means for a critical capability to be
fully operational (JP 5-0).
Critical vulnerability is an aspect of a critical requirement which is deficient or vulnerable to direct
or indirect attack that will create decisive or significant effects (JP 5-0).

Note. CFA is often presented as a stand-alone technique; however, it shares characteristics found
in other imaginative techniques. For the purposes of this publication, CFA is categorized under
imaginative techniques.

6-24. To conduct CFA successfully, identify threat critical capabilities. The more specific the threat critical
capability, the more specificity analysts can apply to threat critical capabilities, requirements, and
vulnerabilities. CFA is more effective when conducted by a team of experienced analysts. Additionally,
structured brainstorming can amplify this technique. Analysts can determine windows of opportunity by
identifying the common denominator or entity that encompasses those identified threat critical capabilities,
requirements, and vulnerabilities. Identified threat critical vulnerabilities are used to develop the HVT list in
IPB, step 3, and then later prioritized by the fires cells. (See figure 6-3 on page 6-10.) Table 6-7 briefly
describes when to use the functional analysis technique using CFA, as well as the value added and potential
pitfalls associated with using this technique.
Table 6-7. Functional analysis technique using critical factors analysis
Functional analysis using critical factors analysis (CFA): The application of the knowledge of common and necessary
military functions to specific threat capabilities.
When to use Value added Potential pitfalls
Analysts should conduct functional Functional analysis may also act as the Units may not have enough experienced
analysis using CFA when attempting to catalyst for other analytic tools such as personnel to apply this technique
identify windows of opportunity and the criticality, accessibility, effectively, as multiple analysts are
threat vulnerabilities. This is often recuperability, vulnerability, effect, and optimal. There may not be enough time
completed when evaluating the threat recognizability (also called CARVER) to conduct a thorough functional
during step 3 of the intelligence matrix tool for prioritizing targets. analysis.
preparation of the battlefield process.

6-25. Method. The following outlines those steps necessary to conduct CFA (see figure 6-3 on page 6-10):
Step 1: Create a quad-chart. Identify a specific threat mission objective.
Step 2: Identify all threat critical capabilities that are essential to achieve the threat mission
objective and input in the top-right quadrant of the chart. (Threat must be able to achieve X.)
Step 3: Identify all threat critical requirements conditions or resources integral to critical
capabilities developed in step 1 and input in the bottom-right quadrant of the chart. (To achieve
X, the threat needs Y.)
Step 4: Identify all threat critical vulnerabilities elements related to threat critical requirements
developed in step 2 that appear exposed or susceptible (at risk) and input in the bottom-left
quadrant of the chart. (The threat cannot lose Z.)

ATP 2-33.4 6-9