Capital University of Science and Technology

Subject: Statistics

Instructor: Azhar Rauf

 Exclusive & Exhaustive events
Definition
 Any two events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are said to be exclusive events if they donot have
any outcome in common.
Example
In tossing of a coin the outcomes head and tail are exclusive event.
Definition
 Any two events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are said to be exhaustive events if one or more of
them must occur.
Example
 The National Governors Association classifies governors as Democrat,
Republican, or Independent. The governor selected must be a Democrat, a
Republican, or an Independent. They are also mutually exclusive; a governor
cannot have more than one political party affiliation at the same time.
 An event and its complement are always mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
 Exclusive & Exhaustive events

(a) Three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events; (b) an event B and three mutually
exclusive and exhaustive events
 The Law of Total Probability
• Suppose a sample space can be partitioned into a set of
disjoint events Bi such that B
B1 4
B3
A
B2
 The Rule of Total Probability
Definition
Suppose that events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; that is,
exactly one of the events must occur. Then for any event B,
𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴3 )+…+ 𝑃 𝐴𝑘 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴𝑘 )
Example
The U.S. Census Bureau presents data on age of
residents and region of residence in Current
Population Reports. The first two columns of
Table give a percentage distribution for region of
residence; the third column shows the percentage
of seniors (age 65 years or over) in each region.
Determine the percentage of U.S. residents that
are seniors.
Solution

𝐴1 =“Resident lives in Northwest”

𝐴2 =“Resident lives in Midwest”
𝐴3 =“Resident lives in South”
𝐴4 =“Resident lives in West”
𝐵 = “Resident is a senior citizen”
𝑃 𝐴1 = 0.183, 𝑃 𝐴2 = 0.222, 𝑃 𝐴3 = 0.363, 𝑃 𝐴4 = 0.323.
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴1 = 0.136, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴2 = 0.128, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴3 = 0.125, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴4 = 0.112.

𝑃 𝐵 = 0.183 ⋅ 0.136 + 0.222 ⋅ 0.128 + 0.363 ⋅ 0.125 + 0.323 ⋅ 0.112 = 0.125

 Probability using tree diagram
A tree diagram for this calculation is
shown in Fig, where J represents the
event that the resident selected is
not a senior. We obtain P(S) from
the tree diagram by first multiplying
the two probabilities on each branch
of the tree that ends with S (the colored
branches) and then summing all
those products.
 The Law of Total Probability
• Suppose a sample space can be partitioned into a set of
disjoint events Bi such that

• The probability of an arbitrary event A in Ω can be written as:

Law of total probability

 There’s more than one way to condition:
Bayes’ Theorem
• Intersection commutes:
• So:
• But from the multiplication rule we know:

• So:

Bayes’ Theorem
 Bayes’s Rule
Definition
Suppose that events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑘 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; that is,
exactly one of the events must occur. Then for any event B,
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 |𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝑖 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴𝑖
= ,
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴3 )+…+ 𝑃 𝐴𝑘 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴𝑘 )
where 𝐴𝑖 can be any one of events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 , … , 𝐴𝑘 .
Example 1
In the example from the previous lecture,
what percentage of seniors are Northeast
residents?
Solution
𝐴1 =“Resident lives in Northwest”
𝐴2 =“Resident lives in Midwest”
𝐴3 =“Resident lives in South”
𝐴4 =“Resident lives in West”
𝐵 = “Resident is a senior citizen”
𝑃 𝐴1 = 0.183, 𝑃 𝐴2 = 0.222, 𝑃 𝐴3 = 0.363, 𝑃 𝐴4 = 0.232.
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴1 = 0.136, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴2 = 0.128, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴3 = 0.125, 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴4 = 0.112.
To find
𝑃 𝐴1 𝐵 = "a senior who lives Northeast province“.
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1
𝑃 𝐴1 |𝐵 = ,
𝑃 𝐴1 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴1 + 𝑃 𝐴2 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴2 + 𝑃 𝐴3 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴3 ) + 𝑃 𝐴4 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴4 )
0.183×0.136
𝑃 𝐴1 |𝐵 = = 0.199.
0.183⋅0.136+0.222⋅0.128+0.363⋅0.125+0.232⋅0.112
Examples
 Examples
Solution
 Examples
Solution
Solution
 Examples
Solution
Dependent Events - Examples
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Marital Status and Gender From Current Population Reports, a
publication of the U.S. Census Bureau, we obtained a joint probability
distribution for the marital status of U.S. adults by gender, as shown in
Table. We used “Single” to mean “Never married.

Suppose a U.S. adult is selected at random.

a. Determine the probability that the adult selected is divorced, given that
the adult selected is a male.
b. Determine the probability that the adult selected is a male, given that the
adult selected is divorced.
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Unlike our previous work with contingency tables, we do not
have frequency data here; rather, we have only probability
(relative-frequency) data. Hence we cannot compute
conditional probabilities directly; we must instead use the
conditional probability rule.
a. We want P(M4 | S1). Using the conditional probability rule
and Table ,we get

Interpretation In the United States, 9.1% of adult males are divorced.

 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
b) We want P(S1 | M4). Using the conditional probability
rule and Table 4.9, we get

Interpretation In the United States, 42.3% of divorced adults are males.

 Dependent Events - Examples
The population of a particular country consists of three ethnic
groups. Each individual belongs to one of the four major blood
groups. The accompanying joint probability table gives the
proportions of individuals in the various ethnic group–blood group
combinations
 Dependent Events - Examples
Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
population, and define events by
A ={type A selected}
B ={type B selected}
C={ethnic group 3 selected} .
a. Calculate P(A), P(C), and P(A  C) .
b. Calculate both 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)and 𝑃 𝐶 𝐴 , and explain in
context what each of these probabilities represents.
c. If the selected individual does not have type B blood,
what is the probability that he or she is from ethnic group
1?
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
population, and define events by
A ={type A selected}
B ={type B selected}
C={ethnic group 3 selected} .
a. Calculate P(A), P(C), and P(A Ç C) .

a.
P(A) = .106 + .141 + .200 = .447,
P(C) =.215 + .200 + .065 + .020 = .500
P(A  C) = .200
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
population, and define events by
A ={type A selected}
B ={type B selected}
C={ethnic group 3 selected} .
b. Calculate both 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)and 𝑃 𝐶 𝐴 , and explain in context
what each of these probabilities represents.

If we know that the individual came from ethnic group 3, the

probability that he has type A blood is .40.
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
population, and define events by
A ={type A selected}
B ={type B selected}
C={ethnic group 3 selected} .
b. Calculate both 𝑃(𝐴|𝐶)and 𝑃 𝐶 𝐴 , and explain in context
what each of these probabilities represents.

𝑃 𝐶𝐴 =

If a person has type A blood, the probability that he is from ethnic

group 3 is .447
 Dependent Events - Examples
Solution
Suppose that an individual is randomly selected from the
population, and define events by
A ={type A selected}
B ={type B selected}
C={ethnic group 3 selected} .
c. If the selected individual does not have type B blood, what is
the probability that he or she is from ethnic group 1?
Define event D = {ethnic group 1 selected}. We are asked for
P(D|B`) =? 𝑃(𝐷∩𝐵`) 0.192
P(D|B`) = = = 0.2112
𝑃(𝐵`) 0.909

P(D∩B`)=.082 + .106 + .004 = .192,

P(B`) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – [.008 + .018 + .065] = .909