Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Geoscience Frontiers
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gsf

Implication of machine learning techniques to forecast the electricity

price and carbon emission: Evidence from a hot region
Suleman Sarwar a,⇑, Ghazala Aziz b, Aviral Kumar Tiwari c
a
Department of Finance and Economics, College of Business, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
b
Department of Business Administration, College of Administrative and Financial Sciences, Saudi Electronic University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
c
Indian Institute of Management, Bodhgaya, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The current study examines the significant determinants of electricity consumption and identifies an
Received 29 January 2023 appropriate model to forecast the electricity price accurately. The main contribution is focused on eastern
Revised 27 March 2023 region of Saudi Arabia, a relatively hottest geographical area full of energy resources but with different
Accepted 5 June 2023
electricity consumption patterns. The relative irrelevance of temperature as predicting factor of electric-
Available online xxxx
ity consumption is quite surprising and contradicts the previous studies. In the eastern region, electricity
price has negative association with electricity consumption. While comparing traditional and machine
Keywords:
learning, it is found that machine learning techniques offer better predictability. Amongst the machine
Electricity consumption
Carbon emission
learning techniques, the support vector machine has the lowest errors in forecasting the electricity price.
Artificial neural network Additionally, the support vector machine approach is used to forecast the trend of carbon emissions
Support vector machine caused by electricity consumption. The findings have policy implications and offer valuable suggestions
Saudi Arabia to policymakers while addressing the determinants of electricity consumption and forecasting electricity
prices.
Ó 2023 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Published by Elsevier B.V. on
behalf of China University of Geosciences (Beijing). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND
license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

1. Introduction Shamayleh, 2018, pointed to the significant impact the electricity

Electricity is a crucial energy source for developmental projects
and growth. Electricity consumption has seen a constant and
rapidly mounting to other sources of energy worldwide. It has been
reported that between 1980 and 2021, the global annual electricity
consumption has risen from 7300 Terawatt-hour (TWh) to 25,243
TWh (Statista: https://www.statista.com/statistics/280704/world-
power-consumption). Moreover, with a yearly increase of 3.4 per-
cent, the growth of electricity consumption is seven times faster
globally and is consumed by each sector of the economy, such as
residential, industrial, and agriculture. However, these sectors have
different needs and intensity of electricity consumption. It is being
anticipated that, on an average, the worldwide electricity genera-
tion may increase by 1.9 % annually from 2012 to 2040 (Cuellar
Franca & Azapagic, 2017). Several determinants of this upward
incline in electricity consumption have been identified by
researchers such as (Aslani et al., 2014; Bayar & Özel, 2014). They
found that consumer characteristics and number of households
greatly impact the electricity consumption. Al-Bajjali &
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: suleman@uj.edu.sa (S. Sarwar).
price and population have on electricity consumption.
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC), a government owned com-
pany, is responsible for electricity supply in the whole Kingdom.
Because of the Kingdom’s large size KEC organized itself into four
operating areas, namely, western, eastern, northern, and southern
regions. The eastern region, the focus of this study, assumes signif-
icance because of the following interesting features. As per King
Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) report of
1919, this region is the largest one in terms of area (27.6% of the
Kingdom) and the second in terms of population density (2189
persons per square kilometer of area). It accounts for 18% of the
country’s population (SAMA, 2020). The region is regarded as the
economic powerhouse because it is home to various resource-
intensive industries. Besides industrial use, the household recorded
an annual increase of 4.2% in its electricity consumption per capita.
In addition, the yearly average temperature in this region remains
high (Weather and Climate, 2022). However, it appears that energy
consumption in this region is higher due to the consumption by
industries, transportation, and household consumptions, especially
for air conditions. Thus, It seems evident that the region has differ-
ent types of dwelling impacts on the pattern of electricity
consumption.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101647
1674-9871/Ó 2023 China University of Geosciences (Beijing) and Peking University. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Geosciences (Beijing).
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Please cite this article as: S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari, Implication of machine learning techniques to forecast the electricity price and carbon
emission: Evidence from a hot region, Geoscience Frontiers, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101647
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari
The current study emphasizes Saudi Arabia, particularly its
eastern region and its household electricity consumption mainly
because of two reasons: (i) the previous studies about energy con-
sumption forecasting have selected the coldest or average temper-
ature regions, such as (Donatos & Mergos, 1991; Gram-Hanssen,
2011; Kotsila & Polychronidou, 2021; McLoughlin et al., 2012;
Tewathia, 2014). Though the average temperature in the eastern
region of Saudi Arabia is higher (Weather and Climate, 2022), it
has escaped the attention of previous researchers. (ii) (Kotsila
and Polychronidou, 2021) stated that air-conditioning in accounts
for the largest share in electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia,
around 70% share of the electricity consumption. This is in contrast
with the other countries of similar climate conditions such as Uni-
ted Arab Emirates at 57%, U.S, with 15%, Malaysia with 20%, India
with 18%, Mexico with 13% and Egypt with 12% (Epp, 2018). Saudi
Arabia’s extensive use of air-conditioning raises serious questions
concerning the energy and environmental sustainability (SEEC,
2021), Saudi Energy Efficiency Center (SEEC) has modified the
buildings code and regulations. According to this program, the
authorities have been announcing 14 insulation standards for
small and large air conditioning units. The main objectives of these
programs are to introduce sustainable energy consumption that
leads to the attainment of sustainable objectives. This surge in
electricity consumption through air conditioning consumes the
higher amount of energy, as well as to increase the climate temper-
ature. Therefore, it is important to examine the significant determi-
nants of electricity consumption and forecast their trends. In case
of significant surge in electricity consumption trends, the govern-
ment may have to introduce quick reforms to minimize the elec-
tricity consumption by means of replacing the energy mix,
utilizing the energy efficient air conditioning units, reforms in
building structures such as roof plantation etc.
The study has the potential to significantly contribute to the
existing body of literature on the subject. Firstly, as far as our
knowledge goes, this pioneer study emphasizes the relatively hot-
ter region, which the previous researchers have neglected. This
study highlights the critical determinants of electricity consump-
tion in this region and introduces the appropriate forecasting
model that will be useful to forecast electricity consumption. The
pattern of electricity consumption varies according to geographical
location, climatic conditions, the distribution of resources, con-
sumer behavior and so on. The eastern region of Saudi Arabia is sit-
uated in the warmest hemisphere, with excessive energy resources
that have significant impact on energy consumption behavior.
Nevertheless, it is necessary to investigate the energy consumption
pattern in this region. Secondly, the study emphasizes the forecast-
ing techniques and identification of an accurate model for predict-
ing electricity consumption. For this purpose, we use traditional
regression analysis, and machine learning analysis. While focusing
on the traditional analysis, we used stepwise regression (SWR) and
robust least square regression (RLS). The machine learning tech-
niques are support vector machine (SVR) and Artificial neural net-
work (ANN) has been incorporated. The machine learning
approach is superior to traditional approaches, due to its features,
such as it addresses the complex nonlinear relationships between a
dependent variable and predictors (Christodoulou et al., 2019;
Gravesteijn et al., 2020; Yu et al., 2014). The machine learning
models can address the outlier issues. In the case of a sufficiently
trained network, the accuracy increases (Tappenden et al., 2004).
Thirdly, after choosing the appropriate model, we examine the
impact of electricity consumption on carbon emissions. As one of
the hottest regions with higher electricity consumption, the uti-
lization of air-conditioning has a significant effect on the environ-
ment. To address this issue, we use the regional carbon emission
data and investigate the forecasted carbon emission caused by
electricity consumption. Lastly, the findings are expected to be use-
2
Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx
ful for policymakers while addressing the energy challenges and
framing energy and environmental policies.
The remaining section of this study is constituted as follows:
section two is about literature, this will provide a brief historical
findings of different researchers in the next section. Section three
reports the methodology and data information. Section four pre-
sents the results and findings of this paper., The last section dis-
cusses conclusion and recommendations for policy makers as
well as explains as to how forecasting of electricity consumption
can be obliging.
2. Literature review
Researchers with vast amount of literature identified the deter-
minants of electricity consumption and considered it a precondi-
tion for executing an operative energy policy, as well as for
forecasting future electricity need. Several studies identified num-
ber of factors and variables impacting electricity consumption at
different region such as (Donatos & Mergos, 1991; Gram-
Hanssen, 2011; Kotsila & Polychronidou, 2021; McLoughlin et al.,
2012; Tewathia, 2014). According to (Jones et al., 2015), many fac-
tors influence the electricity consumption, such as socio-economic
factors, dwelling-related factors and appliance usage factors. Nev-
ertheless, region differs with different demand for electricity,
hence numerous factors are impacting electricity consumption.
(Halicioglu, 2007) found that electricity price is one of the promi-
nent that trigger the demand of electricity in Turkey. (Griffin,
1974) also documented the relationship between price and elec-
tricity consumption.
(Wiesmann et al., 2011) concluded that weather is a variable
that substantially influences the energy consumption on Por-
tuguese consumer, and found the less per capita consumption by
family in colder regions. (McLoughlin et al., 2012) observed that
temperature impacts the usage of the appliance and thus this
appliance increases the energy demand such as Irish families using
more water heating system in cold weather and therefore raising
electricity consumption. (Kotsila & Polychronidou, 2021) found a
significant relationship between number of residents, weather
conditions and electricity consumption. The change in climatic
conditions make it difficult to observe weather and energy con-
sumption as, for example, due to the recent global warming in
recent years, there is a significant surge in electricity consumption
in summer, especially by the air conditions. For example, (Scapin
et al., 2016) highlighted the positive association between increased
air conditioning equipment and weather, in case of Italy. (Akara
et al., 2021) established the relationship between electricity con-
sumption and weather and are also of the view that population
growth and urbanization lead to increase the electricity demand.
(Ubani, 2013) is in agreement with other studies for population,
price and industry to be a determinant of electricity consumption
but not so for gross domestic product (GDP) to be an explanatory
variable. (Al-Bajjali & Shamayleh, 2018) also used GDP, electricity
prices, population, and other factors to assess their impact on elec-
tricity consumption, population happened to have positive signifi-
cant impact on electricity consumption in the short run. In concise,
electricity prices are noteworthy and adversely related to electric-
ity consumption.
Saudi Arabia is having the largest consumption of electricity
among major countries. (Esmaeil et al., 2019) made an interna-
tional comparison and observed the energy consumption of resi-
dential buildings is high in Saudi Arabia that may be caused by
metrological circumstances, inappropriate insulation of dwellings
envelopes, low electricity prices and inhabitant behaviors. (Kerr,
2015) found electricity prices to be low as compared to globally
provided electricity hence high electricity consumption, but this
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari
load the Saudi economy heavily due to energy subsidy. The total
subsidies are $107 billion, around 13.2 percent of the GDP in
2015. According to (Almasri et al., 2020), energy consumption
source in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is recorded mainly from
electric energy with 86% and 11.6% LPG for cooking. They conclude
that average electrical energy consumed per annum by each resi-
dential unit is from 30,832 kW hour (kWh) to 34,448 kWh in
2017. Further elaborating, they found that air conditioning elec-
tricity usage is 67.34, water heaters consume 9.31%; lighting,
8.18%; and other domestic appliances, 15.17%. Hence, temperature
can be main determinants which effect the usage of these appli-
ances. According to (Esmaeil et al., 2019), share of individual type
of residential energy depletion are: lighting has 8.5%, home appli-
ances has 14.7%, water heaters has 10.3% and air conditioning with
high of 66.5%. (Almoallem, 2021) showed in the analysis about
behavior and consumption of different dwelling consumers and
found 51% to be residing in apartments. The research found villas
consumption to be more than that of apartments and concluded
that climate does affect usage of AC, 46% in summer and declines
to 17.15% in winters. They also conclude that the modern system
installed in new residence can help reduce the electric
consumption.
Rising population in Saudi Arabia is another challenge for the
government to reduce electricity consumptions in the country.
(Al kanani et al., 2017) assumed escalating economic development
projects due to population are raising energy demand in the coun-
try. To control this consumption, a study showed new construction
need energy saving units so that population couldn’t effect the
energy demand. (Aldossary et al., 2014) observed the domestic
energy depletion patterns in three apartments and three villas in
Riyadh and equated with the classic consistent consumption
showed in electricity bills. The high demand for electricity city con-
sumption is linked with climate due to most consumption usage
for cooling purposes and could be lack of good construction mate-
rials. (Alrashed & Asif, 2014) considered 115 houses to analyze the
energy performance in Dhahran, KSA, in 2012. Climatic conditions,
residence characteristics, cooling system and home appliances are
measured as parameters. They stated a decline in electricity con-
sumption of above 30% in homes when change in A/C systems,
thermal insulation and double-glazed windows are installed as cli-
mate conditions effect the usage.
Several studies applied different methods forecasting electricity
consumption in Saudi Arabia. (Abdel-Aal & Al-Garni, 1997) equated
to regression and network machine-learning models formerly
developed, argued ARIMA models necessitate fewer data, and are
more precise for forecasting. Similarly, Alshibani (2020) used an
ANN model for the Eastern region in Saudi Arabia that intended
to classify the influences of energy consumption in school where
roof area is the most important factor in energy consumption
and included 352 real datasets. Many additional countries have
plenty of literature regarding different machine learning tech-
niques performance in predicting electricity consumption. In this
study, we applied MLR and few machine learning tools for forecast-
ing electricity consumption in KSA. We expect the SVR to be least
error model provided by previous literature knowledge than other
machine learning tools such as ANN and MLR. The findings of other
studies stated that SVR is higher predictability power than other
models. Table 1 as below displays some research portraying SVR
to be healthier and correct (See Table 2).
In concise, the above literature is divided into two categories: (i)
focuses on the study sample (ii) focuses on the methodology. By
reviewing the previous literature, according to our limited knowl-
edge, it is evident that none of the studies have investigated the
electricity consumption of the eastern region of Saudi Arabia, one
of the warmest places. However, it is essential to explore this
region’s electricity consumption pattern and determinants. More-
3
Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx
over, there are few studies that has incorporated machine learning
techniques to forecast the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia.
To address this gap, the current study explores the most appropri-
ate forecasted electricity consumption pattern in the eastern Saudi
Arabia region.
3. Methods and overview
This study uses multiple linear regression and three machine
learning techniques such as the SVR, and ANN in forecasting the
model for electricity consumption in KSA. As machine learning
techniques are gaining attention, ANN methods are proposed to
be given more accurate results in this field of study.
3.1. Data and variables
Our study has used data from January 2008 to October 2019 for
the eastern region of Saudi Arabia. We have not included the data
of 2020, due to the COVID-19 period. However, we have observed a
structural break in data which leads towards inappropriate out-
come. As the purpose of the current study is to explore the most
prominent predicted model, so the inclusion of during COVID-19
data leads us to wrong results. We used electricity consumption
calculated as electricity load monthly by region (gigawatt) and
population measured as the total number of people each dataset
is obtained from King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research
Center (https://www.kapsarc.org/). Our next variable named tem-
perature is measured as degree Celsius for the same region from
Weather spark. Electricity price data is calculated in Halalah over
kilowatt hour taken from Saudi Electricity Company. Points out
that all these datasets are taken for the residential sector of the
eastern province of Saudi Arabia.
3.2. Regression model
Regression analysis is a well-known method to find the associ-
ation between a target and predictor variables. More precisely,
regression analysis aids us to recognize how the value of the target
variable is changing resultant to any change in independent vari-
able when other predictors are held fixed. Regression analysis is
primarily applied for binary theoretically unrelated purposes. We
present a linear model in Eq. (1):
Y ¼ b0 þ b1a1 þ b2b2 þ :::brX r þ  ð1Þ
In the above equation, B ymbolizes the coefficients of the inde-
pendent variables. e is mentioned as error terms. The regression
model only provides proper implication if the assumptions hold
correct (even though the model is vigorous to mild desecrations
of these assumptions). Many arithmetic textbooks (Gray, 2002;
Miles & Shevlin, 2001; Tufte et al., 1979).
3.3. Support vector machine
Support vector Machine (SVR) is a well-known non-linear pre-
diction model, which is a popular machine learning technique, pre-
sented by (Vapnik, 2000). SVR is a supreme classification for non-
linear regression solution, which is considered to deal with high
dimensional data. The SVR method is distributed into two portions
i.e., the classification of supporting vectors (SVR) to handle the
problems requires classification and other is about the regression
of support vectors (SVR) which is incorporated in the problems
of regression. By comparing simple regression and machine learn-
ing models, it is obvious that machine learning surpasses in most
scenarios. Firstly, it is able to handle the data in an efficient man-
ner, as compare with the simple regression. Secondly, it has higher
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 1
Previous literature for different prediction method.

Author Goal Method Findings

(Solyali, 2020)
(Kaytez et al., 2015)
(Vinagre et al., 2017)
A Comparative Analysis of Machine
Learning
Approaches for Short-/Long-Term
Electricity Load
Forecasting in Cyprus
Forecasting electricity consumption:
A comparison of regression analysis,
neural networks and least squares
support vector machines
Electrical Energy Consumption
Forecast
Using Support Vector Machines
Several methods used to estimate electricity.
Demand and suggest standards for electric
generation in Cyprus.
The study used LS-SVM for the forecasting of
electricity consumption of Turkey. Furthermore,
they added traditional regression model and
artificial neural networks (ANNs) technique.
The study aims to state a case study for
assessing the performance and correctness of
energy consumption prediction by applying
SVM (Support Vector Machines) in different
frameworks.
The outcomes of long-term and short-term
research display
That SVM and ANN are relatively superior to
other added ML methods.
The results specify that the suggested LS-SVM
model is a correct and rapid prediction method.
The goal of the conclusion states that SVM
performance better than previous experiments
applied on ANN and SVM accuracy in complex
scenarios for forecasting electricity consumption
is superior than other methods.

(Oğcu et al., 2012)
(Fuadi et al., 2021)
(El khantach et al.,
2019)
(Shapi et al., 2021)
Forecasting Electricity Consumption
with Neural Networks and Support
Vector Regression.
Using Support Vector Machine to
Predict Next Day Electricity Load of
Public Buildings with Sub-metering
Device.
Short-term load forecasting using
machine learning and periodicity
decomposition.
Energy consumption prediction by
using machine learning for smart
building: Case study in Malaysia
In this research, SVR and ANN models are
applied to incorporate the finest model for
predicting electricity production within 2010
and 2011.
In this paper, a technique based on Support
Vector Machine (SVM) is projected to forecast
the loads at organization.
The methodology includes five machine learning
methods such as multi-layer perceptron (MLP),
support vector machine (SVM), radial basis
function (RBF) regressor, REPTree, and Gaussian
process
To forecast model, they used approaches which
are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial
Neural Network (ANN), and k-Nearest Neighbor.
The study specifies that seasonal SVR method
overtakes the ANN model. Those attained in
preceding experiments, by means of the same
data.
This case study express that the SVM beats three
other widespread data mining methods
(ARIMAX, Decision Tree, and Artificial Neural
Network).
The study resulted that MLP method
outperforms in terms of accuracy with a MAPE
percentage of 0.96 whereas SVM tool second
place but yet performed better than the rest.
SVM technique displays the most favorable
result, whereby it achieved to be the preeminent
method.

1X n
1  
Lðyi ; f ðxi ÞÞ þ jw2 j
Table 2
Sources of variables.
Rðf Þ ¼ c ð3Þ
n i¼1 2
Proxy Abb Variable Source
Where, e is designated the tolerance value.
Electricity EC Electricity load monthly by region KAPSARC
  
consumption (GW) 0  y  f ð xÞ <  
L ðy; f ðxÞÞ ¼   ð4Þ
Temperature TEMP Temperature (Degree Celsius) WS
jy  f ðxÞj    y  f ðxÞ   
Population POP Population (Total number of people KAPSARC
in region)
In the equation mentioned above, L ð y; f ðxÞ is marked a  insen-
Electricity Price EP Electricity Price for Residential SEC
(Halalah / kwh)
sitive loss function. The loss measured as zero if the estimated
value is in the  range. Resultant to the lenient margin hyperplane,
Notes: KAPSARC, WS and SEC represents the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and the presented two slack variables, bi ; bi signifying the positive and
Research Center, Weather Spark, and Saudi Electricity Company. GW and kwh are
gigawatt and kilowatt hour, respectively. Abb represents the abbreviation.
negative deviances, respectively, out of the  range. Eq.(2) is refor-
mulated in the ensuing limitation,
scope of improvement than the traditional models. Thirdly, it has 1 Xn
 
wide range of applications that suits for different circumstances. Min jjwjj2 þ C bi þ bi ð5Þ
2 i¼1
SVR process divides the dataset into two parts training and test-
ing data and it not only reduces the error in training dataset but subject to:
also generalize it. Generalization is the aptitude of a hypothesis
to sort data that is not incorporated in the training data appropri-
½w  qðxi Þ þ b  yi   þ bi
ately. To confirm this generalization, SVR mechanism uses the
standard of structural risk minimization (SRM). Several researches
yi  ½w  qðxi Þ þ b   þ bi ð6Þ
uses the SVR method in forecasting energy and electricity con-
bi ; bi  0
sumption, such as (Duan et al., 2019; Zamhuri Fuadi et al., 2021)
etc. According to (Byvatov et al., 2004), the performance of SVR The subsequent form resolves this limitation optimization
and its results are considerably accurate and more error free. The solution:
high dimensional function of regression model formulations
1 Xn
 
between Eq. (2) to Eq. (10) enlighten SVR method in a mathemat- Min jjwjj2 þ C bi þ bi
ical aspect: 2 i¼1
X
n
f ðxÞ ¼ w  qðxÞ þ b ð2Þ  bi ½w  qðxi Þ þ b  yi þ  þ bi 
i¼1
where qðxÞ indicates the inputs of kernel transformation function, X
n
 
and w and b are parameters. The coefficients are calculated by  bi yi w  qðxi Þ  b þ  þ bi ð7Þ
reducing the standardized risk function that is assumed below: i¼1

4
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

The dual form is stated under: dimensional, nonlinear and complex statistics. The ANN can
smoothly succeed with nonlinear models and under faulty data
X
n
  X
n
  1 X
n X
n
 
max yi bi  bi   bi  bi  yi bi  bi arrangement can deliver productive consequences. This method
i¼1 i¼1
2 i¼1 j¼1 can be categorized into supervised and unsupervised model and
   can outperform in forecasting results. The nature of ANN is highly
 bj  bj k xi xj flexible and is capable to perform miscellaneous association from
input to output. Another factor is that the technical performance
Subject to:
in a fuzzy and missing data set is favorable. ANN is largely used
X
n
  as a practical substitute (Tadeusiewicz, 1995). The sample is bro-
bi  bi ¼ 0 ken down into training and test data, which facilitates the testing
i¼1
process and provides the relationship between inputs and outputs
(Hornik, 1993).
0  bi  C
In order to obtain the perfect network architecture, dissimilar
groupings are assessed. Amongst these groupings, an element is
0  bi  C
to identify the appropriate transfer function. We have employed
a hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer function as detailed in Eq.
i ¼ 1; 2; 3          n ð8Þ
(11):
Dependent to the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker theorem, our regression
1  ey
equation is specified as: f ð yÞ ¼ ð11Þ
1 þ ey
   
f ðxÞ ¼ bi  bi k xi xj þ b ð9Þ In the above equation, y is the weighted input summation of the
  hidden layer, and f ð yÞ is the output of the hidden layer.
k xi xj represents a kernel function which equals the value of input of
  The most broadly applied learning algorithm is the back propa-
two vectors, xi andxj in the feature space qðxi Þ and q xj . Approx-
gation algorithm. The foremost notion behind the application of
imately most applied kernel functions, such as radial basis kernel, backpropagation algorithm is to decrease the sum of square errors
polynomial kernel, sigmoidal kernel and linear kernel, our paper in backward propagating through ANN technique. Generally, the
has incorporated polynomial kernels function to inspect the elec- Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is functioned to compute the
tricity consumption forecasting. Additionally, polynomial kernels weights of ANN in back propagation algorithm. This is originated
have been extensively employed in diverse applications (Ikeda, from Newton’s method (Hagan & Menhaj, 1996) and for decreasing
2004). The polynomial kernel with an order of s and constant of a function V ð f Þ with respect to the vector f is given in Eq. (12):
a1 and a2 is expressed in Eq.(10): h i2
   s Dðf Þ ¼  r2 V ðf Þ rv ð f Þ ð12Þ
k xi xj ¼ a1 xi xj þ a2 ð10Þ
Overall SVR technique surrounds around the hyper parameters r2 V ðf Þ symbolizes the Hessian matrix and rV ð f Þ is the gradient
ðC; Þ and the kernel parameters (s). These parameters determine vector.
their decisive supports to the correctness of the SVR model. Figur-
ing out all three parameters as it knowingly effects the estimation 3.5. Our proposed method
accuracy of SVR implementation. More decidedly, C delivers the
steadiness among the training error and the model robust. If C Our proposed model for forecasting the electricity consumption
has too large value, the perceived risk of the objective purpose will is depicted in Fig. 2. There are three main stages of the method:
be decreased. According to Vapnik’s  is systemically generated Firstly, recognize the decidedly suitable method for forecasting
minimal radius tube and the error values are lesser than the range the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia for prediction. Sec-
of the certain threshold is considered to be ignored. Minor values ondly, define the highest affecting variable in forecasting con-
of  define low tolerance error, thus it impacts the support vector sumption of electricity. Thirdly, state some solutions to policy
and eventually the results (Zhang & O’Donnell, 2019). makers and other officials to counter the energy related issues.
Phase 1: The inputs of the proposed forecasting model are elec-
3.4. Artificial neural network models tricity consumption of past years, electricity price of residential,
temperature (degree Celsius,℃) and total population in the eastern
ANNs are encouraged by the neurological functions produced region. The principal phase includes gathering of data, its inspec-
by the human mind and are expressed in the human being logical tion and generalization of its structures.
system. It envisioned to pretend the performance of biological sys- Phase 2: The following step comprises separating the data set
tems comprised of ‘‘neurons”. This method is skillful for machine into training and testing data. Hence, it will help in recognizing
learning and also capable as pattern recognition. ANN is presented the model’s performance in concluding stage and support to deter-
as interconnected ‘‘neurons” which can calculate the values from mine the model limitations.
inputs. The artificial neural network comprises the subsequent 3 Phase 3: In this step, selected simple regression which includes
layers, as presented in Fig. 1. SWR and RLS, and machine learning tools which includes SVR, and
ANN are used to the dataset to acquire the forecasting model for
& An input layer in which raw information is placed in the input electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia.
unit of the network. Phase 4: The forecasting model is decided on this step by com-
& Hidden layer defines the action of each unseen unit and can be paring the performance of each model gotten by different machine
more than one hidden layer. learning methods. The judgement is centered on mean absolute
& Output layer tells the behavior of the output, which depends on percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE) and root mean
the action of the hidden unit. squared error (RMSE) which support adjusting parameters to
acquire more accurate predicting outputs.
Scholars in the abundant fields specified a great consideration Phase 5: As the model is forecasted in the previous step, thus we
in ANN as of its ability to determine resolutions under multi- will analysis the model outcomes which will elaborate further
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S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 1. ANN model demonstration.

electricity consumption in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia and the seasonal index and electricity consumption. In view of previous
can be beneficial for the decision makers to attain sustainable conclusions, we include temperature, seasonality index, electricity
growth of the country. price and population to examine the relationship with electricity
consumption, as well as to choose the best forecasted model.
Table 3 represents the results of Pearson correlation which
4. Results and discussion
reports on the significance of seasonal index and electricity price
with electricity consumption. On the other hand, temperature
Monthly values of electricity consumption for the eastern
and population have insignificant correlations with electricity
region of Saudi Arabia are examined over the period of 2008–
consumption.
2019. Saudi Arabia is regarded as one of the biggest consumers
In addition, our study inspects the autocorrelation values from
of electricity in the world. The monthly electricity consumption
lag 1 to lag 15, as mentioned in Table 4. Autocorrelation outcomes
of eastern region is reported in Fig. 3, which represents monthly
specified that lag 12 obtained the highest autocorrelation value
fluctuation in energy consumption, and we assume some variables
(0.69). Investigation of time series electricity consumption data
are affecting this consumption behavior. Based on a detailed
proposes that temperature, seasonality index and lag 12 should
review of relevant literature, it is identified that population, elec-
be assumed as input variables for predication model. Later, our
tricity price and climate have an impact on electricity consumption
study incorporated stepwise regression model and robust linear
(Al-Bajjali & Shamayleh, 2018; Al kanani et al., 2017; Almoallem,
square regression to explore the impact of studied variables on
2021; Kotsila & Polychronidou, 2021; McLoughlin et al., 2012;
electricity consumption in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia.
Wiesmann et al., 2011). However, we include few exogenous vari-
The proposed model is used for monthly electricity consump-
ables such as temperature and seasonality. Fig. 4 presents the rela-
tion data from January 2008 to October 2019. As illustrated earlier,
tionship between monthly average temperature and monthly
the model employs seasonal index, electricity price, population of
electricity consumption, mentioning that there is no clear pattern
the eastern province of Saudi Arabia and electricity consumption
which reflects the inconclusive impact of temperature on electric-
with lag 12 (due to higher autocorrelation at lag 12) as input vari-
ity consumers. Furthermore, seasonality effect has examined,
ables while monthly consumption of electricity is used as an out-
which is calculated by taking an average of electricity consumption
put data. Future temperature data incorporated in the regression
data on a monthly basis for the period of 2008–2019. In Fig. 5, we
model as input required to be predicted from previous tempera-
found consistent pattern which reflects the relationship between
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S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 2. Flow of study.

Fig. 3. Time plot of monthly electricity consumption in eastern region of Saudi Arabia.

ture data. As mentioned in proposed method, the dataset is divided els. The predicted temperature dataset is obtained by a simple sea-
into training and testing data. The data for the period 1/1/2008– sonal exponential smoothing technique, as presented in Fig. 6.
30/10/2018 are employed in training set for the anticipated mod- Earlier to the implementation of a predicting method, there is a

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S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

reported in Table 6, which display that seasonal index and electric-

Fig. 4. Scatter plot of electricity consumption and temperature.
Fig. 5. Scatter plot of electricity consumption and seasonal index.
ity prices are significantly affecting the electricity consumption, in
the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. The coefficient of seasonal
index has positive relation, whereas electricity price has negative
relationship with electricity consumption. On contrary, population
and temperature are not significantly impacting the electricity
consumption. Our results are almost same with robust linear
regression (RLS) method, where the seasonal index has positive
and significant impact and electricity price is negatively associated
with electricity consumption. The beta coefficients of electricity
price are between 27.78 and –33.09 whereas the seasonal index
has beta coefficients of 1.068 and 1.14, implying that the impact of
electricity price fluctuation is higher than the seasonal index.
(Esmaeil et al., 2019) concluded that lack of awareness regarding
the consequences of higher electricity consumption has direct
impact on electricity consumption behavior, especially in Saudi
Arabia. In addition, the results concluded that higher electricity
prices encourage the efficient use of energy by consumers. Simi-
larly, Kerr (2015) reported that Saudi Arabian electricity prices
are lower than international energy prices, which is one of the
main drivers of higher electricity consumption. (Mikayilov et al.,
2020) are also of the view that electricity price is an effective signal
for electricity demand in Saudi Arabia. In recent years, the Saudi
Electricity Company has raised the electricity prices which resulted
the prominent decline in the electricity consumption which assists
the reduction in energy wastage (Sarwar et al., 2022; Waheed,
2022).
Temperature and population have reported insignificant rela-
tionship with electricity consumption. Eastern region is dry all over
the year and hence fluctuations in electricity consumption are not
drastic due to the temperature. (Almazroui et al., 2014) stated after
a decade temperature is rising by 0.65 degrees in Saudi Arabia,
however, it is important to forecast the electricity consumption
in the eastern region. The best predicted model is helpful to draw
accurate and practicable policies.

need to check stationarity. Hence, according to Table 5, augmented

Dicky Fuller unit root test showed all variables are stationary at
level. This test is important to avoid spurious regression.
In this research, we designated two machine learning methods,
SVR and ANN, with traditional regressions, namely SWR and RLS.
The aim is to identify the best predicted model by examining the
least errors of each model. The results of stepwise regression are
4.1. Comparison of studied models
The errors of SWR, RLS, SVR and ANN models are reported in
Table 7, which is showing the errors in training and testing data.
We used 7-fold cross validation technique for the performance of
each model. To judge the models, we use different performance

Table 3
Pearson correlation.

Probability Electricity consumption Temperature Seasonal Electricity Price Population

Electricity consumption 1
Temperature 0.063 1
(0.455)
Seasonal 0.365*** 0.168** 1
(0.000) (0.045)
Electricity price 0.152* 0.075 0.024 1
(0.071) (0.377) (0.778)
Population 0.038 0.054 0.004 0.560*** 1
(0.654) (0.523) (0.961) (0.000)

Notes: The values presented in ‘‘()” are the p-values.

***,**,* represents the level of significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

Table 4
Autocorrelation of electricity consumption.

Lags 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Correlation 0.34 0.18 0.41 0.75 0.01 0.16 0.24 0.06 0.02 0.18 0.63 0.69 0.16 0.23 0.01

Notes: The value of autocorrelation is higher at lag 12, however, we use lag 12 as independent variable along with other independent variables.

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S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 6. Plot of real and predicted temperature for training and testing data.

Table 5 Furthermore, we have used the root mean square error for com-
Augmented Dicky Fuller Unit root. parison, as reported in Eq-21.
ADF
At level t-stat prob sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
n 
1X b ðt Þ  g ðt Þ
2
Electricity consumption 12.976 0.000 Stationary RMSE ¼ G ð21Þ
Temperature 11.427 0.000 Stationary n t¼1
Seasonal 5.885 0.000 Stationary
Electricity price 7.417 0.000 Stationary Where the observed values are illustrated by g ðtÞ. While the
Population 3.249 0.079 Stationary b ðt Þ.
predicted value are G
According to Table 7, SVR has lowest MAPE, MSE and RMSE for
both training and testing dataset. For training data SVR has
standards, such as MAPE, MSE and RMSE. Eqs. (19)–(21) are used to reported 46.594, 9.503 and 8.652 for MAPE, MSE and RMSE respec-
calculate MAPE, MSE and RMSE. tively. In testing data, we got 47.341 for MAPE, 21.463 for MSE and

n  ! 16.198 for RMSE for SVR model. Fig. 7 is about the electricity con-
1 X 
At  M t   100 sumption values and prediction of training dataset, the results
MAPE ¼  ð19Þ
n t¼1 At  show that the forecasted power of SVR is higher than ANN, SWR
and RLS, as the values are very near to the real data. Fig. 8 demon-
! strates the percentage errors for testing data, which shows that
1 Xn
2
SVR is best forecasted models, as it has less percentage of errors,
MSE ¼ jAt  M t j ð20Þ as compared to ANN, SWR and RLS. This proves SVR is an accurate
n t¼1
model for forecasting the future electricity consumption. Fig. 9 is
Where, n represents number of predicted points in time t, At about the testing data, which depicts the forecasted power of
shows actual value and M t is the forecast value. SVR is higher than the ANN, SWR and RLS.

Table 6
Multiple linear regression results.

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

Stepwise regression
Temperature 0.034 0.043 0.777 0.439
Seasonal 1.068*** 0.216 4.948 0.000
Electricity consumption (t-12) 0.177** 0.079 2.240 0.027
Population 3.803 4.282 0.888 0.376
Electricity price 27.781* 14.603 1.902 0.059
Constant 58.143 64.774 0.898 0.371
Robust least square regression
Temperature 0.035 0.045 0.765 0.444
Seasonal 1.143*** 0.227 5.040 0.000
Electricity consumption (t-12) 0.165** 0.083 1.982 0.048
Population 4.585 4.496 1.020 0.308
Electricity price –33.097** 15.335 2.158 0.031
Constant 70.080 68.021 1.030 0.303

Notes: ***,**,* represents the level of significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.

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Table 7
MAPE, MSE and RMSE statistics to evaluate the forecasting performance.

SWR RLS SVR ANN

MAPE MSE RMSE MAPE MSE RMSE MAPE MSE RMSE MAPE MSE RMSE
Training data 85.017 23.047 16.901 85.963 24.93 29.521 46.594 9.503 8.652 48.92 11.426 9.034
Testing data 69.038 27.648 26.454 68.191 24.765 27.267 47.341 21.463 16.198 53.242 23.388 16.965

Notes: the MAPE, MSE and RMSE stands for Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Mean Square Error and Root Mean Square Error, The MAPE, MSE and RMSE have lower values for
SVR model which indicated the persistence of SVR model to forecast the electricity consumption in eastern region of Saudi Arabia.

segregated among cities and sectors. We have used the aggregation

method to calculate the carbon emission of eastern region of Saudi
Arabia), which proposing a significant pattern between electricity
consumption and carbon emission. However, we study the conse-
quences of higher electricity consumption on the environment. For
this purpose, we rely on the SVR, as it is reported the best predicted
machine learning techniques.
The observed and forecasted carbon emission, due to electricity
consumption, is reported in Fig. 12, mentioning that observed and
forecasted lines have a similar pattern till 2017. However, after
2017, the observed carbon emission shows increase in carbon
emission. On contrary, the forecasted carbon emission presents a
declining trend. The forecasted trend shows a decrease in carbon
emission is caused by a number of factors, such as the increase
in energy prices, which forces the consumers to avoid excessive
Fig. 7. The graph shows the electricity consumption values and predictions from electricity consumption, use the energy efficient automobiles for
SVR, ANN, SWR and RLS for training data. transportation, switch the traditional electrical and electronic
appliances with green products. Resultantly, there seems a signif-
icant decline in carbon emission in the next years.
4.2. Future consumption forecast

In this segment, forecasted electricity consumption for the fol-

lowing year (for 12 months) is calculated using support vector
regression (SVR), as it is the best model among all four models.
The result presented in Fig. 10 shows the demand for electricity
consumption in coming year October 2019 to October 2020.
4.3. Electricity consumption and carbon emission
The second section of this study encompasses the role of elec-
tricity consumption on carbon emission. Fig. 11 displays the elec-
tricity consumption and carbon emission of eastern region [We
use the data of carbon emission from Hamieh et al.(2022) that is
4.4. Discussion
The current study has confirmed the insignificance of tempera-
ture, while significance of seasonality and electricity price to pre-
dict the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia. Firstly, while
focusing on the temperature, it is evident that the region belongs
to one of the hottest on the planet. In addition, this belongs to
the high income countries which availability of resources and lux-
uries. It seems clear that the people of this region are able to obtain
the air conditions that helps them to prevent from warm weather
and use it throughout the year. However, temperature is not a
prominent indicator to drive the electricity consumption.

Fig. 8. The percentage errors of SVR, ANN, SWR and RLS models for testing data.

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S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 9. The graph shows the electricity consumption values and predictions from SVR, ANN, SWR and RLS for testing data.

Fig. 10. Forecasted electricity consumption of eastern region of Saudi Arabia from October 2019 to October 2020.

Fig. 11. Electricity consumption and carbon emission of eastern region of Saudi Arabia.

11
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari
Fig. 12. Forecasted carbon emission of eastern region of Saudi Arabia from October 2019 to October 2020.
Secondly, pointing towards the seasonality, the variable is sig-
nificant which reflects the influence of seasonality in electricity
consumption. Thirdly, electricity price, the regression results
affirmed the significant relationship between electricity prices
and electricity consumption. As Saudi Arabia is among the top
ten per capital electricity consumption countries which consumes
around 9,920 kW per hour (https://www.statista.com/statistics/
383633/worldwide-consumption-of-electricity-by-country/#: :
text=Iceland%20is%20by%20far%20the,hours%20per%20person%
20in%202021). In such case, the rise in electricity prices can help to
decrease the electricity consumption by reducing the wastage of
electricity which leads towards a significant reduction in environ-
mental externalities too.
5. Conclusion and policy implication
The current study concludes that population and temperature
are insignificantly impacting the electricity consumption of the
eastern region in Saudi Arabia. The findings are contradicting the
earlier studies, such as (Al-Bajjali & Shamayleh, 2018; Kotsila &
Polychronidou, 2021; Scapin et al., 2016), due to different environ-
mental conditions. In contrast to earlier studied samples, we
choose a sample of relatively hotter area to 25 degreesC
(Weather and Climate, 2022). However, the results are evident that
the determinants of electricity price and its prediction varies
across geographical positioning. The significant factors of electric-
ity consumption are seasonal index and electricity price, proving to
fluctuate electricity consumption in the eastern region. After the
identification of important determinants of electricity consump-
tion, we use traditional regression and machine learning tech-
niques to forecast the electricity consumption. The SVR confirms
the lowest errors, in MSE and MAPE. Moreover, we use the SVR
technique to forecast the carbon emission which is caused by elec-
tricity consumption.
The findings of the current study are imperative for policy sug-
gestions that assist the policy makers to achieve sustainable energy
and environmental objectives. According to the results higher price
can reduce the electricity consumption, however, to curtail the
electricity consumption, the government should fluctuate the elec-
tricity prices till its optimal level that minimizes the wastage of
electricity. The modification in building construction is also bene-
ficial to control the electricity consumption, such as advanced cool-
ing methods and materials are useful to minimize the electricity
wastage. In this regard, the government should impose strict con-
struction regulations. The public and commercial entities should
12
Geoscience Frontiers xxx (xxxx) xxx
replace the traditional electrical and electronics appliances with
the clean and energy efficient products, which helps to reduce
the electricity consumption. (Soummane & Ghersi, 2022) proposed
that modification in power prices and instigating efficiency mea-
sures may decrease entire consumption between 11 percent to
32 percent by 2030. The above anticipated measures, such as an
increase in energy prices, modification in construction regulations,
switch from traditional to energy efficient products, are beneficial
to control the electricity consumption. Resultantly, this decline in
electricity consumption, due to proposed suggestions, will help
to mitigate the carbon emission.
The current study has few limitations, like the unavailability of
data at higher frequency which limit us to apply specific econo-
metric estimations. The limited data is available for other Saudi
regions; however, the cross regional and country level analysis
are not possible.
Future studies should incorporate hybrid machine learning
analysis, deep learning and more demographic features. It is rec-
ommended to employ the denoising hybrid models, instead of sin-
gle hybrid models. Moreover, the upcoming studies have to utilize
the deep learning techniques to forecast the electricity prices. A
comparative investigation in dissimilar nations or sectors could
analytically inspect the impact of demographic characteristics of
domestic energy depletion. The research can be motivated to dis-
cover how seasonal variations impact energy consumption exhibit-
ing by distributing results into urban and rural populations.
Funding
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deputyship for
Research & Innovation, Ministry of Education in Saudi Arabia for
funding this research work through the project number MoF-IF-
UJ-22–20744-1.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Suleman Sarwara: Conceptualization, Writing-review & edit-
ing. Ghazala Aziz: Writing-review & editing. Aviral Kumar Tiwari:
Writing-review & editing.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
S. Sarwar, G. Aziz and A. Kumar Tiwari
Acknowledgements
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deputyship for
Research & Innovation, Ministry of Education in Saudi Arabia for
funding this research work through the project number MoF-IF-
UJ-22-20744-1.
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