Chapter 11 Global

demography
Serg imperio
Spup
Reference: THE CONTEMPORARY WORLD by Claudio and Abinales
What can you say about today’s world
population:
• Increasing or declining?
• More men or women?
• Having shorter or longer lifespan?
• More old people or young people?
• What factors do you think would lead to the increase of population?
Decrease?
Demography:
•Demography is the statistical study of
populations, especially human beings.
Demography encompasses the study of the size,
structure, and distribution of these populations,
and spatial or temporal changes in them in
response to birth, migration, aging, and death.
•- wikipedia
This chart illustrates the increase of world
population throughout centuries.
World population today:
• 7.8 billion as of 2020; 8 billion as of November 2022
• At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the
population of the world was approximately 5 million.
• Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200
million (some estimate 300 million or even 600,
suggesting how imprecise population estimates of
early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of
under 0.05% per year.
World population today:
• A tremendous change occurred with the industrial
revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history
until around 1800 for world population to reach one
billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130
years (1930),
• the third billion in 30 years (1960),
• the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and
• the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).
Top 20 countries with the most population…
• Population in the world is currently (2020) growing at
a rate of around 1.05% per year (down from 1.08% in
2019, 1.10% in 2018, and 1.12% in 2017).
• The current average population increase is estimated
at 81 million people per year.

• Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s,

when it was at around 2%. The rate of increase has
nearly halved since then, and will continue to decline
in the coming years.
• World population will therefore continue to grow in
the 21st century, but at a much slower rate compared
to the recent past. World population has doubled
(100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to
1999 (6 billion).
• It is now estimated that it will take another nearly 40
years to increase by another 50% to become 9 billion
by 2037.
• The latest world population projections indicate that
world population will reach 10 billion persons in the
year 2057.
• World Population by Religion
• According to a recent study (based on the 2010 world
population of 6.9 billion) by The Pew Forum, there are:
• 2,173,180,000 Christians (31% of world population), of which
50% are Catholic, 37% Protestant, 12% Orthodox, and 1%
other.
• 1,598,510,000 Muslims (23%), of which 87-90% are Sunnis,
10-13% Shia.
• 1,126,500,000 No Religion affiliation (16%): atheists,
agnostics and people who do not identify with any particular
religion. One-in-five people (20%) in the United States are
religiously unaffiliated.
• World Population by Religion

• 1,033,080,000 Hindus (15%), the overwhelming majority (94%) of

which live in India.
• 487,540,000 Buddhists (7%), of which half live in China.
• 405,120,000 Folk Religionists (6%): faiths that are closely associated
with a particular group of people, ethnicity or tribe.
• 58,110,000 Other Religions (1%): Baha’i faith, Taoism, Jainism,
Shintoism, Sikhism, Tenrikyo, Wicca, Zoroastrianism and many others.
• 13,850,000 Jews (0.2%), four-fifths of which live in two countries:
United States (41%) and Israel (41%).
Developing countries vs developed countries
•Developing countries: • Developed countries :
•Poorer • Richer
•Younger • Older
•Rapid population • Slow population growth;
decreasing population
growth rate size
Take note: more people live in less developed
regions than in more developed ones….
Population Key terms
Crude birth rate- the number of live births per
1000 population per year.
Crude death rate- the number of deaths per 1000
per year.
Exponential growth- a pattern where the growth
rate constantly increases- often shown as a J-
curve shape.
Life expectancy- the number of years a person is
expected to live, usually taken from birth.
Natural increase- birth rate higher than death
rate: birth rate minus death rate.
Natural decrease- death rate remains higher than
birth rate: death rate minus birth rate
Population Key terms
Natural change- the difference between birth
and death rate, expressed as a percentage
Annual population change- the birth rate minus
the death rate plus or minus migration.
Migration- the movement of people either into or
out of an area.
Replacement rate- a birth rate high enough for a
generation to be the same size as the one before
it.
Zero growth- a population in balance. Birth rate is
equal to death rate, so there is no growth or
decrease.
Birth rates
The average birth rate in the rich, industrialised
countries is around 12-13 per 1000;

in poor developing countries it is about 26-27 per

1000.
There tends to be a general relationship between
birth rate and level of economic development- the
more economically developed the country, the
lower its birth rate.

Birth rates in all European countries are low. In

contrast, many countries in Africa and the Middle
East have birth rates well over 40 per 1000.
Death rates
Unlike birth rates, death rates are similar between rich and poor countries;
the world average for both is between 9 and 10.
During the second half of the twentieth century, death rates fell
everywhere, due to the spread of medical knowledge and improvements in
primary and secondary healthcare.
Primary healthcare- preventing disease e.g. by immunisation
Secondary healthcare- treatment of illnesses by doctors and nurses.

Countries with death rates above 20 per 1000 are now quite exceptional.
Countries in southern Africa are badly affected by the spread of HIV/Aids,
unable to afford the anti-viral drugs. Sierra Leone was war-torn for many
years and Zimbabwe is in economic meltdown with severe food shortages.
Here trend towards lower death rates has been reversed.
Rainforest tribes, Ecuador- stage 1 Afghan nomads- stage 2
A lot of countries have similar patterns of population change over time
so they devised the Demographic Transition Model.

• Demographic- is to do with population or people

• Transition- means change
• A model is a simplified version of something that happens in real life

The model has worked quite well for countries that have gone from a
rural, poorly educated society to an urban, industrial, well-educated
one. So it fits what happened in the UK, the rest of Europe, and other
richer countries like Japan and the USA. But poorer countries might not
follow the same pattern.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Modernisation/ economic
development

The demographic transition model (DTM) describes how

the population of a country changes over time. It gives
changes in birth and death rates, and shows that countries
pass through five stages of population change.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
No countries in Stage 1, but some tribes
in Brazil’s rainforests. UK was stage 1
before 1760.
Stage 1 (high fluctuating)- high birth and death rates that fluctuate. The population
remains stable but low.
Birth rate is high because:
- There is a lack of birth control
- Women also marry young
- Children and need to work in fields to support the family’s income
Death rate is high because:
- disease, war, famine, lack of clean water and medical care
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Stage 2 (early expanding)- high birth rate but falling death rate.
The population increases rapidly.
Birth rate is high because: (same reasons as in stage 1)
Death rate falls due to:

Countries like Nepal and - Improved medicine

Afghanistan are in Stage 2 - Cleaner water and improved sanitation
- More and better food
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Egypt is in Stage 3 along with
India, Kenya and Brazil- most
countries at lesser stages of
development.
Stage 3 (late expanding)- birth rate declines rapidly while death rate falls
slowly. Population growth slows down. Reasons for falling birth rate include:
- Fewer people are farmers who need children to work
- Birth control is now available
- Number of infant deaths are falling
- Women are staying in education longer and marrying later
Death rate still falling- for the same reasons as in stage 2
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low

Most developed countries e.g.
most of Europe and USA are in
Stage 4
Stage 4 (low fluctuating)- low birth rate and low death rate, both
fluctuate. Population growth is small but the population remains high and
stable while fertility continues to fall.
There are significant changes in personal lifestyles. There is increased
access and demand for luxuries like holidays and material possessions so
less money is available for having children. There are more women in the
workforce, with many people having high personal incomes and more
leisure interests. Also they are not needed to work for the family. People
are now having the number of children they want.
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 5 (natural decrease)- a later period, during which the birth rate is
very low and goes below the death rate
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• a rise in individualism, linked to emancipation of women in the labour
market

Only recognised in recent years in • greater financial independence of women

some western European countries • concern about the impact of increased population numbers on
and highly developed rich ones e.g. resources for future generations
Japan, Italy, Germany. • a rise in the concept of childlessness, as they are expensive to raise and
many people have elderly dependents so have no kids
 The demographic transition model (DTM)

High High Early expanding Late Low Decline

fluctuating expanding fluctuating

Birth rate
Natural Total population
Natural increase in
decrease in population
population (BR> DR)
( BR< DR)

Death rate

Low
Stage 5 (decline)
Reasons for the low birth rate:
• an increase in non-traditional lifestyles, such as same sex relationships
• the death rate remains steady or slightly increases as there are more
elderly people (ageing population) so more people may die of old age
despite advances in health care.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/469/development/factors-effect-population-size-and-growth/
Economic development.
• Countries who are in the early stages of economic development tend
to have higher rates of population growth. In agriculturally based
societies, children are seen as potential income earners. From an
early age, they can help with household tasks and collecting the
harvest. Also, in societies without state pensions, parents often want
more children to act as an insurance for their old age. It is expected
children will look after parents in old age. Because child mortality
rates are often higher, therefore there is a need to have more children
to ensure the parents have sufficient children to look after them in
old age.
Education.
• In developed countries, education is usually
compulsory until the age of 16. As education becomes
compulsory, children are no longer economic assets –
but economic costs. In the US, it is estimated a child
can cost approx $230,000 by the time they leave
college. Therefore, the cost of bringing up children
provides an incentive to reduce family size.
Quality of children.
• Gary Becker produced a paper in 1973 with H. Gregg Lewis which
stated that parents choose the number of children based on a
marginal cost and marginal benefit analysis. In developed countries
with high rates of return from education, parents have an incentive to
have a lower number of children and spend more on their education
– to give their children not just standard education but a relatively
better education than others. To be able to give children the best
start in life, it necessitates smaller families. Becker noted rising real
GDP per capita was generally consistent with smaller families.
Welfare payments/State pensions.
• A generous state pension scheme means couples
don’t need to have children to provide an effective
retirement support when they are old. Family sizes in
developing countries are higher because children are
viewed as ‘insurance’ to look after them in old age. In
modern societies, this is not necessary and birth rates
fall as a result.
Social and cultural factors.
•India and China (before one family policy) had
strong social attachments to having large
families. In the developed world, smaller families
are the norm.
Availability of family planning.
• Increased availability of contraception can enable
women to limit family size closer to the desired
level. In the developing world, the availability of
contraception is more limited, and this can lead to
unplanned pregnancies and more rapid population
growth. In Africa in 2015, it was estimated that only
33% of women had access to contraception.
Increasing rates would play a role in limiting
population growth.
Female labour market participation.
• In developing economies, female education and social
mobility are often lower. In societies where women
gain a better education, there is a greater desire to
put work over starting a family. In the developed
world, women have often chosen to get married later
and delay having children (or not at all) because they
prefer to work and concentrate on their career.
Death rates – Level of medical provision
• . Often death rates are reduced before a slowdown in
birth rates, causing a boom in the population size at a
certain point in a country’s economic development. In
the nineteenth and early twentieth century, there was
a rapid improvement in medical treatments which
helped to deal with many fatal diseases. Death rates
fell and life expectancy increased.
Immigration levels.
• Some countries biggest drivers of population growth come from net
migration. In the UK from 2000 to 2013, around 50% of net
population growth came from net international migration. Countries
like Japan with very strict immigration laws have seen a stagnation in
the population.
Historical factors/war.
• In the post-war period, western countries saw a ‘boom’ in population,
as couples reunited at the end of the Second World War began having
families. The ‘baby-boomer’ period indicates population growth can
be influenced by historical events and a combination of factors which
caused a delay in having children until the war ended.
The issue on overpopulation:
overpopulation is a problem; therefore, lessen
the population
The issue on overpopulation
•Thomas Malthus
•1798: An Essay on the Principle of Population
•-- population growth will inevitably exhaust
world food supply by the middle of 19th century
•RESULT– prediction did not happen, thanks to
mankind’s innovativeness, creativity, resilience
The issue on overpopulation
• Paul and Anne Ehrlich
• 1968
• The Population Bomb
• Overpopulation in the 1970s and 1980s will bring about global
environmental disasters that would lead to food shortage and
mass starvation
• Proposal: US to lead reduction of growth rate to zero
• Ways: castration, sterilization, taxing additional children,
department of population and environment
• So, revival of Malthus’s theory again caused a scare on people
The issue on Overpopulation
• National Security Study Memorandum or NSSM 200: The
Kissinger Report 1974
• “Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for U.S.
Security and Overseas Interests.”
• This document, published shortly after the first major
international population conference in Bucharest, was the
result of collaboration among the Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA), the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), and the Departments of State,
Defense and Agriculture.
The Purpose of The Kissinger Report
• The document contains the official US government’s
population control policy… BUT….
• The primary purpose of U.S. government population
control efforts is to maintain access to the mineral
resources of less-developed countries, or LDCs.
• The Kissinger Report says that the U.S. economy will
require large and increasing amounts of minerals from
abroad, especially from less developed countries.
• In order to protect U.S. commercial interests, NSSM-
200 cited a number of factors that could interrupt the
smooth flow of materials from LDCs to the United
States, including a large population of anti-imperialist
youth, whose numbers must be limited by
government population control.

• The document identified 13 nations by name that

would be the primary targets of U.S. government
population control efforts.
The countries:

•India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,

Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil, the
Philippines, Thailand, Egypt, Turkey,
Ethiopia and Columbia
•U.S. will look to the multilateral agencies,
especially the U.N. Fund for Population Activities
which already has projects in over 80 countries
to increase population assistance on a broader
basis with increased U.S. contributions.

• This is desirable in terms of U.S. interests and

necessary in political terms in the United
Nations.
• According to The Kissinger Report, elements of the
implementation of government population control programs
could include:

• the legalization of abortion;

• financial incentives for countries to increase their abortion,
sterilization and contraception-use rates;
• indoctrination of children; and
• mandatory population control and coercion of other forms,
such as withholding disaster and food aid unless an LDC
implements population control programs.
Consequences of NSSM 200/Kissinger Report
• “Brainwashing” that : there is overpopulation
• ----- small family size is better than large family size
• ----- proliferation of artificial contraception
• ----- legalization of abortion
• The document was also used by groups opposing the family planning
program to prove that overpopulation is a myth, and that family
planning program is part of the USA’s plan to dominate the world as
economic power.
 Critics against population
control:
population is not the problem; it’s the
flawed system
Current view: overpopulation has its evil
consequences…
• Poverty
• Hunger
• Criminality
• Environmental degradation
• Depletion of natural resources
• Death….
Therefore….
•Population control!
•Family planning methods!
•Abortion!
•Reproductive health laws and programs!

•But….. There are those who oppose …. Why?

Betsy Hartmann , etc:
• Rampant poverty is not caused by rapid population
growth
• Governments are using population control as
substitute for social justice and much-needed
reforms, such as land distribution, employment
creation, provision of mass education and health
care, and emancipation
• - population is not the problem, it is a flawed
economic system and/or corruption in government
• The economic boom in the 1960’s was partly due to
the increase of population during that era.

• The baby boomers (1946-1964’s) led to the increase of

the working age population 4x faster than the
dependent population
• Population growth has spurred technological and
institutional innovations
Some critical issues related
to population:
Women and reproductive
rights, feminism
Women and reproductive rights, feminism
•The woman is naturally the focus of
population control since she is the one who
gives birth
•Birth control methods=== oriented towards
the woman:
•Pills, IUD, tubal ligation, female condom
Women and reproductive rights, feminism
•To attain goals in population control and
economic development, women should be given
more control over whether they will have
children or not, etc.
•To help women take control, REPRODUCTIVE
HEALTH LAWS.
•---- including ABORTION
•Pro CHOICE movements
Thank you!