Projections for China

Project Engineers &

Transitions
Groupe 5
Emilie COUSSON, Marwa KHDOUD,
Charline KRIER, Charline QUINTERNE,
Anna VANPOPERINGHE
 Initial situation

Energy and electricity supply of China

Total installed capacity

2,594 GW

Total CO2 emissions

11,4 Gt of CO2

Part of China in Mondial GHG in Mt CO²

China is one of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

China’s installed electricity generating capacity by type, 2022

Initial situation
● Renewable energy

Evolution of the renewable energy production by type

(2015-2021)

Evolution of the renewable energy capacity

(2015-2021)
 POLITICAL CONTEXT

Political situation in China stable

Initial situation Chinese Communist Party (CCP) firmly in power

China's current leader, Xi Jinping, holds a triple title as State President
Nominated for a third term at the 2022 Communist Party Congress

Evolution of demography Economic growth, evolution of the PIB

Carbon intensity of the power sector in China Evolution of the energy efficiency of China from
Proportion of Natural ressources in 2022 1970 to 2020
from 2000 to 2022
 Projection into the future

● Kaya equation

By 2050, the GDP will increase by 150% while the population

will decrease by 50%. We project the carbon intensity to
decrease by 50% and the energy intensity to increase by 50%.

(1-x)tCO2=(1-0.5)CarbonI*(1+0.5)EnergyI*(1+0.5)PP*(1-0.5)Pop – carbon intensity

– electricity production
(1-x)=0.5*1.5*1.5*0.5
x = 45%

In this projection, CO2 emissions will decrease by 45% in 2050.

 Diagnostic of the issues at stake

We want to work on the evolution of

renewable energies, carbon emissions as
well as GHG emissions that are distributed
like the following :
 Action plan : 5 different propositions

1. Energy Efficiency Priority

2. Coal Phase-Down Acceleration
3. Scaling Hydrogen and Synthetic Fuels
4. Supporting cities as champions of low-carbon living
5. Laying the groundwork for industrial sectors to achieve net zero
emissions
 Proposition 1 : Energy Efficiency Priority

the most cost-effective strategy to reduce

energy consumption as well as emissions maintain a strategic focus on reducing energy intensity
improve energy security

Significant potential for efficiency

improvements in many areas

In IRENA's 1.5°C Scenario, around 25% of

global emission reductions rely on energy
efficiency and demand reduction Exploit remaining opportunities for improvements
circular economy concept
 Proposition 2 : Accelerating the phase-down of
coal consumption
- In 2022, 42% of China's electricity
came from coal
Curb emissions through the national emissions
- Coal production : trading scheme, while reducing and eventually
5 750 million tonnes today => halting subsidies for coal production and use
240 million tonnes by 2050
- Impacts on CO2 emissions,
freight transport requirements
- Ramp up carbon emission reduction from the
and population health most emitting plants
- Reduce fossil fuel subsidies

Develop economic transition strategies for

coal-reliant regions

- Replace jobs lost from reduces coal use by jobs

from the increased production and use of clean
energy technologies
 Proposition 3 : Scaling Hydrogen and
Synthetic Fuels
Develop a supportive policy framework to encourage fuel
shifts in industry and expand eligible fuels to hydrogen

China aims to play a crucial role in

achieving the global hydrogen
target of a 12% energy share by Demonstrate and build experience in hydrogen end-use
2050, with a focus on becoming a
applications, such as direct reduction for steel, ammonia for
key electrolyzer hub. To meet its
ambitious goals, China plans to ships, and synthetic fuels for aviation.
scale hydrogen production to 5000
GW by 2030.
Support the domestic electrolyser industry through
government initiatives to foster growth, learning, and
competition, aiming for technological leadership in green
energy
 Proposition 4 : Supporting cities as
champions of low-carbon living
Encourage local authorities to develop long-term
- 60% of the population live in the city integrated urban planning
- city dwellers demand 85% of China’s energy

Prioritise distributed energy generation

Contribute to energy system flexibility

Reform urban waste use

increasing energy efficiency in buildings ⇒ 0.4°C decrease.

 Proposition 5 : Laying the groundwork for
industrial sectors to achieve net zero emissions
China develop new strategies like Long-Term Vision
electrification, driven by reduced Integrate this vision into comprehensive roadmaps for
renewable electricity costs, as a building smart electrification infrastructure.
primary strategy for decarbonization,
especially for over 50% of end-use
energy demand.
Accelerate Implementation
Explore large-scale solutions for urban mobility.
Consider relocating energy-intensive industries to regions
with low-cost renewable power.

Adapt Regulations
Promote price reforms for electricity, gas, heating, and water.
Provide incentives adoption of heat pumps.
ASSESSMENT
Thank you for your attention :)