Discussion - 5 & 6

1 Testing of hypotheses
Statistical hypothesis: Any assumption concerning the form of the distribution or the values of
the parameters of statistical population is called a statistical hypothesis.
Statistical test: A statistical test is a procedure by which a hypothesis is accepted or rejected
based on the samples taken from the population.
Null hypothesis: The statistical hypothesis that the investigator sets up and proceeds to test is
called the null hypothesis and is usually denoted by H0 .
Alternative hypothesis: Based on samples taken from the population we may accept or reject
the null hypothesis. The rejection of null hypothesis will result in the acceptance of some other
hypothesis. This hypothesis is called the alternative hypothesis and is denoted by H1 .
The two types of errors: We reject or accept the null hypothesis based on samples taken from
the population. When we accept the hypothesis we do not mean that the hypothesis is true.
Similarly when we reject the hypothesis we do not mean that the hypothesis is false. We only
mean that so far as the available evidence is considered that appears to be correct conclusion.
Therefore two types of errors are possible. We may reject H0 when H0 is true and we may
accept H0 when H0 is false. The first one is called Type I error or rejection error and the second
one is called the Type II error or acceptance error.
Size of two types of errors: The size of the Type I error is the probability of committing the
Type I error and is denoted by α. The size of the Type II error is the probability of committing
the Type II error and is denoted by β.
Testing of hypothesis and the problem of minimizing errors: A good test procedure is one
in which minimizes the two types of errors. But it can be seen that when the probability of
one type of error increases, the probability of the other type of error decreases. In practice it is
more risky to accept a wrong hypothesis than rejecting a correct one. So it is used to formulate
test procedure in such a way that the probability of Type II error is minimum subjected to the
condition that the probability of Type I error is less than or equal to an arbitrary small number
say α. Usually α is taken as 0.05 or 0.01.
Test statistic: The test statistic is the statistic computed from the sample which is used to decide
whether the null hypothesis H0 should be accepted or rejected.
Critical region: Testing of hypothesis is made on the basis of the division of the range of
variation of the test statistic into two mutually exclusive regions , one for the acceptance and
the other for the rejection of H0 . If the sample point falls in the region of acceptance H0 is
accepted and if it falls in the region of rejection H0 is rejected .The region of rejection is called
Critical region.
The probability that the sample point falls in the critical region when H0 is true is called the
size of the critical region or the level of significance. Evidently it is equal to α, the size of type
I error.
ie., α = significance level = size of typeI error = P(reject H0 /H0 is true )
Similarly the probability that the sample point falls in the acceptance region when H0 is
false is called the size of the acceptance region.

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Power of a test: Probability of rejecting the hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true
is called the power of the test.

Different steps in a test procedure

1. Setup the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.

2. Take a random sample from the population.

3. Choose an appropriate statistic as the test criterion.

4. Divide the range of variation of the test statistic into two mutually exclusive regions, one
for acceptance and the other for rejection.

5. If the test statistic falls in the region of rejection, reject the null hypothesis and if it falls
in the region of acceptance, accept the null hypothesis. When the test statistic falls in the
region of rejection, we say that the test is significant.

2 Large sample tests

2.1 Testing of hypothesis concerning the mean of the population
Consider a population with mean µ and standard deviation σ.
Case (i)
Let the null hypothesis be H0 : µ = µ0 and H1 : µ > µ0 (right tail test) be the alternative
hypothesis.
Let x be the sample mean of a random sample of size n(≥ 30) taken from the population. Since
n is large the sampling distribution of the sample mean x is a normal distribution with mean µ0
σ x − µ0
and standard deviation √ . Therefore z = ! follows N(0, 1). Hence the test statistic be
n σ
√
n

x − µ0
z=
σ
!
√
n
Let α be the level of significance and z > zα be the critical region. Then P(z > zα /H0 ) = α.
From the normal table we see that zα = 1.645 when α = 0.05 and zα = 2.33 when α = 0.01.
Case (ii)
Let the null hypothesis be H0 : µ = µ0 and H1 : µ < µ0 (left tail test be the alternative
hypothesis.)
Here also the test criterion is
x − µ0
z=
σ
!
√
n
Since the normal curve is symmetric, the critical region is z < −zα .

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 Case (iii)
Let the null hypothesis be H0 : µ = µ0 and H1 : µ , µ0 (two tail test)) be the alternative hypoth-
esis.
Let α be the level of significance and |z| > zα/2 be the critical region. Then P(|z| > zα/2 /H0 ) = α.
From the normal table we see that zα/2 = 1.96 when α = 0.05 and zα/2 = 2.58 when α = 0.01.

If the population S.D σ is unknown and the sample size is large replace σ by the sample
standard deviation s.
Example 2.1. A factory was producing electric bulbs of average length of life 2000 hours with
standaed deviation 300 hours. A new process was introduced with the hope that the length of
life of the bulbs would increase. A sample of fifty bulbs produced by the new process was found
to have an average length of life 2100 hours. Examine whether it is reasonable to think that the
length of life of bulbs has increased assuming that the S.D has not changed. Use 5% level of
significance.

µ = 2000, σ = 300, n = 50, x = 2100

H0 : µ = 2000
H1 : µ > 2000
x − µ0
z=
σ
!
√
n
2100 − 2000
= !
300
√
50
= 4.741

For α = 0.05, from the normal table, zα = 1.645. Since z = 4.741 > zα = 1.645, we reject H0 .
That is, the process has resulted in the increase of the length of life of bulbs.
Example 2.2. A company manufacturing tyres claims that its delux tyre averages at least 50000
miles before it needs to be replaced. From the past studies of this tyre, the standard deviation
is known to be 8000. A survey of owners of the tyre design is conducted. From the 38 tyres
surveyed, the mean lifespan was 46500 miles with a standard deviation of 9800 miles. Using
the level of significance 1% test whether the data is highly inconsitent with the claim.

µ = 50000, σ = 8000, n = 38, x = 46500, s = 9800

H0 : µ = 50000
H1 : µ < 50000
x − µ0
z=
σ
!
√
n

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 46500 − 50000
= !
8000
√
38
= −2.7

For α = 0.01, from the normal table, zα = 2.33. Since z = −2.7 < −zα = −2.33, we reject H0 .
Thus the sample data does not support the company’s claim.
Example 2.3. The heights of students studying in college classes is believed to be distributed
with standard deviation 0.75 ft. A sample of 400 students have their mean height 4.75 ft. Does
this contradicts the hypothesis that the mean height of the students is 4.68 ft. (significance level
0.01)

µ = 4.68, σ = 0.5, n = 400, x = 4.75

H0 : µ = 4.68
H1 : µ , 4.68
x − µ0
z=
σ
!
√
n
4.75 − 4.68
= !
0.75
√
400
= 1.8667

For α = 0.01, from the normal table, zα/2 = 2.58. Since |z| = 1.8667 < zα/2 = 2.58, we
accept H0 . Thus the sample data does not contradicts the hypothesis that the mean height of the
students is 4.68 ft.

2.2 Testing the hypothesis that a proportion has a specified value

Consider a population, the elements of which may be classified into two categories: those
possessing a particular characteristic and those not possessing it. Let p denotes the proportion
of elements of the population which possess the characteristic and q = 1 − p be the proportion
of those not possessing the characteristics.
Let the null hypothesis be H0 : p = p0 .
Let a sample of size n be taken and let x be the number of units possessing the characteristic.
x
Then p = is the sample proportion. If n is large (np ≥ 10 and n(1 − p) ≥ 10), the test statistic
n
be
p − p0
z= r
p0 q0
n
Let α be the level of significance.
If H1 : p > p0 is the alternative hypothesis, then the critical region is z > zα .

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If H1 : p < p0 is the alternative hypothesis, then the critical region is z < −zα .
If H1 : p , p0 is the alternative hypothesis, then the critical region is |z| > zα/2 .
Example 2.4. Prior to a special advertising campaign, 23% of all adults recognized a partic-
ular company’s logo. At the close of the campaign the marketing department commissioned a
survey in which 312 out of 1200 randomly selected adults recognized the logo. Determine, at
the 1% level of significance, whether the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that there
is an increase in the proportion of adults recognizing the logo after the campaign.

p = p0 = 0.23, n = 1200, x = 312,

x 312
p= = = 0.26
n 1200
H0 : p = p0 = 0.23
H1 : p > p0
p − p0
z= r
p0 q0
n
0.26 − 0.23
= r
0.23 × 0.77
1200
= 2.47

For α = 0.01, from the normal table, zα = 2.33. Since z = 2.47 > zα = 2.33, we reject H0 .
Thus the data provide sufficient evidence to conclude that there is an increase in the proportion
of adults recognizing the logo after the campaign.
Example 2.5. The goverment of a particular country reports its literacy rate as 52%. A non
governmental organization believes it to be less. The organization takes a random sample of
600 inhabitants and obtains a literacy rate of 42%. Perform the relevant test at the 5% level of
significance.

p = p0 = 0.52, n = 600, p = 0.42,

H0 : p = p0 = 0.52
H1 : p < p0
p − p0
z= r
p0 q0
n
0.42 − 0.52
= r
0.52 × 0.48
600
= −4.902

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For α = 0.05, from the normal table, zα = 1.645. Since z = −4.902 < −zα = −2.33, we reject
H0 .
Example 2.6. The records of a certain hospital showed the birth of 500 males and 470 females
in a certain week. Do these confirm the hypothesis that the sexes are born in equal proportion.

p = p0 = 0.5, n = 500 + 470 = 970

x 500
p= = = 0.5155
n 970
H0 : p = p0 = 0.5
H1 : p , p0
p − p0
z= r
p0 q0
n
0.5155 − 0.5
= r
0.5 × 0.5
970
= 0.9627

For α = 0.05, from the normal table, zα/2 = 1.96. Since |z| = 0.9627 < zα/2 = 1.96, we accept
H0 . the sample data confirm the hypothesis that the sexes are born in equal proportion.

3 Exercise
1. An automobile manufacturer recommends oil change intervals of 3500 miles. To com-
pare actual intervals to the recommendation, the company rondomly samples records of
50 oil changes at service facilities and obtains sample mean 3752 miles with sample stan-
dard deviation 638 miles. Determine whether the data provide sufficient evidence, at 5%
level of significance, that the population mean interval between oil changes exceeds 3500
miles.

2. A machine set to produce metal disks of diameter 11.90 cm has an annual service. After
the service a random sample of 36 discs is measured and found to have mean diameter of
11.93 cm and standard deviation 0.072 cm. Test at the 1% level of significance whether
the machine is now producing discs of mean diameter greater than 11.90.

3. The mean breaking strength of the cables supplied by a manufacturer is 180 kg with
standard deviation of 10 kg. By a new technique in the manufacturing process, it is
claimed that the braking strength of the cable has increased. To test this claim, a sample
of 50 cables is tested and it is found that the mean breaking strength is 185 kg. Can we
support the claim at 1% level of significance assuming that the S.D has not changed..

4. Medical standards prescribe that the average daily intake of sodium by a human should
not exceed 3300 mg. A test conducted among a sample of 100 people in a certain region

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 found the mean and standard deviation of daily sodium intake to be 3400 mg and 1100 mg
respectively. Do this data indicate that the intake of sodium by the people in this region
exceed the limit(test at 5% level of significance) ?

5. An educator claims that the average IQ of American college students is atmost 110 and
that in a study made to test the claim. 150 Americans college students had an average IQ
of 111.2 with SD 7.2. At 5% level of significance test the claim of the educator.

6. In a city 325 men out of 600 were found to be smokers. Does this information support
the conclusion that the majority of men in this city are smokers.

7. A parcel delivery service claims that at least 80% of their parcels are delivered within 48
hours of posting. A check on 200 parcels found that 152 were delivered within 48 hours
of posting. Test the delivery service’s claim at 5% level of significance.

8. A die is thrown 9000 times and an even number occured 4650 times. Can you conclude
that the occurance of an even number and occurance of odd number are equally likely.
Use 5% level of significance.

9. A die is thrown 9000 times and a throw of 3 or 4 was observed 3240 times. Can you
conclude that the occurance of getting the event 3 or 4 and the event of not getting 3 or 4
are equally likely.