Pemodelan moving average

Airport 3 month's moving ABSOLUTE % 5 month's moving ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE %

NO Date ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR
Passengers average ERROR average ERROR ERROR
1 Jan-15 3,204,637.00 -
2 Feb-15 2,966,477.00 -
3 Mar-15 3,593,364.00 -
4 Apr-15 3,604,104.00 3,254,826.00 349,278.00 349,278.00 121,995,121,284.00 0.10
5 May-15 3,933,016.00 3,387,981.67 545,034.33 545,034.33 297,062,424,512.11 0.14
6 Jun-15 4,146,797.00 3,710,161.33 436,635.67 436,635.67 190,650,705,405.44 0.11 3,460,319.60 686,477.40 686,477.40 471,251,220,710.76 0.17
7 Jul-15 4,176,486.00 3,894,639.00 281,847.00 281,847.00 79,437,731,409.00 0.07 3,648,751.60 527,734.40 527,734.40 278,503,596,943.36 0.13
8 Aug-15 4,347,059.00 4,085,433.00 261,626.00 261,626.00 68,448,163,876.00 0.06 3,890,753.40 456,305.60 456,305.60 208,214,800,591.36 0.10
9 Sep-15 3,781,168.00 4,223,447.33 (442,279.33) 442,279.33 195,611,008,693.78 0.12 4,041,492.40 (260,324.40) 260,324.40 67,768,793,235.36 0.07
10 Oct-15 3,872,278.00 4,101,571.00 (229,293.00) 229,293.00 52,575,279,849.00 0.06 4,076,905.20 (204,627.20) 204,627.20 41,872,290,979.84 0.05
11 Nov-15 3,902,278.00 4,000,168.33 (97,890.33) 97,890.33 9,582,517,360.11 0.03 4,064,757.60 (162,479.60) 162,479.60 26,399,620,416.16 0.04
12 Dec-15 4,302,278.00 3,851,908.00 450,370.00 450,370.00 202,833,136,900.00 0.10 4,015,853.80 286,424.20 286,424.20 82,038,822,345.64 0.07
13 Jan-16 2,644,539.00 4,025,611.33 (1,381,072.33) 1,381,072.33 1,907,360,789,898.78 0.52 4,041,012.20 (1,396,473.20) 1,396,473.20 1,950,137,398,318.24 0.53
14 Feb-16 2,359,800.00 3,616,365.00 (1,256,565.00) 1,256,565.00 1,578,955,599,225.00 0.53 3,700,508.20 (1,340,708.20) 1,340,708.20 1,797,498,477,547.24 0.57
15 Mar-16 2,925,918.00 3,102,205.67 (176,287.67) 176,287.67 31,077,341,418.78 0.06 3,416,234.60 (490,316.60) 490,316.60 240,410,368,235.56 0.17
16 Apr-16 3,024,973.00 2,643,419.00 381,554.00 381,554.00 145,583,454,916.00 0.13 3,226,962.60 (201,989.60) 201,989.60 40,799,798,508.16 0.07
17 May-16 3,177,100.00 2,770,230.33 406,869.67 406,869.67 165,542,925,653.44 0.13 3,051,501.60 125,598.40 125,598.40 15,774,958,082.56 0.04
18 Jun-16 3,419,595.00 3,042,663.67 376,931.33 376,931.33 142,077,230,048.44 0.11 2,826,466.00 593,129.00 593,129.00 351,802,010,641.00 0.17
19 Jul-16 3,649,702.00 3,207,222.67 442,479.33 442,479.33 195,787,960,427.11 0.12 2,981,477.20 668,224.80 668,224.80 446,524,383,335.04 0.18
20 Aug-16 3,650,668.00 3,415,465.67 235,202.33 235,202.33 55,320,137,605.44 0.06 3,239,457.60 411,210.40 411,210.40 169,093,993,068.16 0.11
21 Sep-16 3,191,526.00 3,573,321.67 (381,795.67) 381,795.67 145,767,931,085.44 0.12 3,384,407.60 (192,881.60) 192,881.60 37,203,311,618.56 0.06
22 Oct-16 3,249,428.00 3,497,298.67 (247,870.67) 247,870.67 61,439,867,393.78 0.08 3,417,718.20 (168,290.20) 168,290.20 28,321,591,416.04 0.05
23 Nov-16 2,971,484.00 3,363,874.00 (392,390.00) 392,390.00 153,969,912,100.00 0.13 3,432,183.80 (460,699.80) 460,699.80 212,244,305,720.04 0.16
24 Dec-16 3,074,209.00 3,137,479.33 (63,270.33) 63,270.33 4,003,135,080.11 0.02 3,342,561.60 (268,352.60) 268,352.60 72,013,117,926.76 0.09
25 Jan-17 2,785,466.00 3,098,373.67 (312,907.67) 312,907.67 97,911,207,858.78 0.11 3,227,463.00 (441,997.00) 441,997.00 195,361,348,009.00 0.16
26 Feb-17 2,515,361.00 2,943,719.67 (428,358.67) 428,358.67 183,491,147,308.44 0.17 3,054,422.60 (539,061.60) 539,061.60 290,587,408,594.56 0.21
27 Mar-17 3,105,958.00 2,791,678.67 314,279.33 314,279.33 98,771,499,360.44 0.10 2,919,189.60 186,768.40 186,768.40 34,882,435,238.56 0.06
28 Apr-17 3,139,059.00 2,802,261.67 336,797.33 336,797.33 113,432,443,740.44 0.11 2,890,495.60 248,563.40 248,563.40 61,783,763,819.56 0.08
29 May-17 3,380,355.00 2,920,126.00 460,229.00 460,229.00 211,810,732,441.00 0.14 2,924,010.60 456,344.40 456,344.40 208,250,211,411.36 0.13
30 Jun-17 3,612,886.00 3,208,457.33 404,428.67 404,428.67 163,562,546,421.78 0.11 2,985,239.80 627,646.20 627,646.20 393,939,752,374.44 0.17
31 Jul-17 3,765,824.00 3,377,433.33 388,390.67 388,390.67 150,847,309,953.78 0.10 3,150,723.80 615,100.20 615,100.20 378,348,256,040.04 0.16
32 Aug-17 3,771,842.00 3,586,355.00 185,487.00 185,487.00 34,405,427,169.00 0.05 3,400,816.40 371,025.60 371,025.60 137,659,995,855.36 0.10
33 Sep-17 3,356,365.00 3,716,850.67 (360,485.67) 360,485.67 129,949,915,872.11 0.11 3,533,993.20 (177,628.20) 177,628.20 31,551,777,435.24 0.05
34 Oct-17 3,490,100.00 3,631,343.67 (141,243.67) 141,243.67 19,949,773,373.44 0.04 3,577,454.40 (87,354.40) 87,354.40 7,630,791,199.36 0.03
35 Nov-17 3,163,659.00 3,539,435.67 (375,776.67) 375,776.67 141,208,103,211.11 0.12 3,599,403.40 (435,744.40) 435,744.40 189,873,182,131.36 0.14
36 Dec-17 3,167,124.00 3,336,708.00 (169,584.00) 169,584.00 28,758,733,056.00 0.05 3,509,558.00 (342,434.00) 342,434.00 117,261,044,356.00 0.11
37 Jan-18 2,883,810.00 3,273,627.67 (389,817.67) 389,817.67 151,957,813,245.44 0.14 3,389,818.00 (506,008.00) 506,008.00 256,044,096,064.00 0.18
38 Feb-18 2,610,667.00 3,071,531.00 (460,864.00) 460,864.00 212,395,626,496.00 0.18 3,212,211.60 (601,544.60) 601,544.60 361,855,905,789.16 0.23
39 Mar-18 3,129,205.00 2,887,200.33 242,004.67 242,004.67 58,566,258,688.44 0.08 3,063,072.00 66,133.00 66,133.00 4,373,573,689.00 0.02
40 Apr-18 3,200,527.00 2,874,560.67 325,966.33 325,966.33 106,254,050,466.78 0.10 2,990,893.00 209,634.00 209,634.00 43,946,413,956.00 0.07
41 May-18 3,547,804.00 2,980,133.00 567,671.00 567,671.00 322,250,364,241.00 0.16 2,998,266.60 549,537.40 549,537.40 301,991,353,998.76 0.15
42 Jun-18 3,766,323.00 3,292,512.00 473,811.00 473,811.00 224,496,863,721.00 0.13 3,074,402.60 691,920.40 691,920.40 478,753,839,936.16 0.18
43 Jul-18 3,935,589.00 3,504,884.67 430,704.33 430,704.33 185,506,222,752.11 0.11 3,250,905.20 684,683.80 684,683.80 468,791,905,982.44 0.17
44 Aug-18 3,917,884.00 3,749,905.33 167,978.67 167,978.67 28,216,832,455.11 0.04 3,515,889.60 401,994.40 401,994.40 161,599,497,631.36 0.10
45 Sep-18 3,564,970.00 3,873,265.33 (308,295.33) 308,295.33 95,046,012,555.11 0.09 3,673,625.40 (108,655.40) 108,655.40 11,805,995,949.16 0.03
46 Oct-18 3,602,455.00 3,806,147.67 (203,692.67) 203,692.67 41,490,702,453.78 0.06 3,746,514.00 (144,059.00) 144,059.00 20,752,995,481.00 0.04
47 Nov-18 3,326,859.00 3,695,103.00 (368,244.00) 368,244.00 135,603,643,536.00 0.11 3,757,444.20 (430,585.20) 430,585.20 185,403,614,459.04 0.13
48 Dec-18 3,441,693.00 3,498,094.67 (56,401.67) 56,401.67 3,181,148,002.78 0.02 3,669,551.40 (227,858.40) 227,858.40 51,919,450,450.56 0.07
49 Jan-19 3,211,600.00 3,457,002.33 (245,402.33) 245,402.33 60,222,305,205.44 0.08 3,570,772.20 (359,172.20) 359,172.20 129,004,669,252.84 0.11
50 Feb-19 2,998,119.00 3,326,717.33 (328,598.33) 328,598.33 107,976,864,669.44 0.11 3,429,515.40 (431,396.40) 431,396.40 186,102,853,932.96 0.14
51 Mar-19 3,472,440.00 3,217,137.33 255,302.67 255,302.67 65,179,451,607.11 0.07 3,316,145.20 156,294.80 156,294.80 24,428,064,507.04 0.05
52 Apr-19 3,563,007.00 3,227,386.33 335,620.67 335,620.67 112,641,231,893.78 0.09 3,290,142.20 272,864.80 272,864.80 74,455,199,079.04 0.08
53 May-19 3,820,570.00 3,344,522.00 476,048.00 476,048.00 226,621,698,304.00 0.12 3,337,371.80 483,198.20 483,198.20 233,480,500,483.24 0.13
54 Jun-19 3,618,672.33 3,413,147.20
TOTAL 714,160.33 18,350,933.67 9,316,788,304,201.44 5.68 (203,828.60) 19,757,455.00 11,579,712,756,746.40 6.10
N 50.00 MAD 367,018.67 N = 48 MAD 411,613.65
MSE 186,335,766,084.03 MSE 241,244,015,765.55
RMSE 431,666.27 RMSE 491,165.98
MAPE (%) 11.35 MAPE (%) 12.72

jawaban B
Dari dua pemodelan diatas maka yang paling baik adalah menggunakan pemodelan 3-months moving average hal ini dapat di lihat dari nilai MAPE yang kecil (semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka semakin baik kemampuan forecastingnya) dengan
nilai forecast passengers di bulan Juni 2019 sebanyak 3,618,673 orang
 Pemodealn exponential smoothing
smoothing constant smoothing constant smoothing constant
Airport ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE %
NO Date 0.1 ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR 0.5 ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR 0.9 ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR SQUARE OF ERROR
Passengers ERROR ERROR ERROR ERROR
1 Jan-15 3,204,637.00 3,204,637.00 - - - - 3,204,637.00 - - - - 3,204,637.00 - - - -
2 Feb-15 2,966,477.00 2,966,477.00 - - - - 2,966,477.00 - - - - 2,966,477.00 - - - -
3 Mar-15 3,593,364.00 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17 2,966,477.00 626,887.00 626,887.00 392,987,310,769.00 0.17
4 Apr-15 3,604,104.00 3,029,165.70 574,938.30 574,938.30 330,554,048,806.89 0.16 3,279,920.50 324,183.50 324,183.50 105,094,941,672.25 0.09 3,530,675.30 73,428.70 73,428.70 5,391,773,983.69 0.02
5 May-15 3,933,016.00 3,086,659.53 846,356.47 846,356.47 716,319,274,310.86 0.22 3,442,012.25 491,003.75 491,003.75 241,084,682,514.06 0.12 3,596,761.13 336,254.87 336,254.87 113,067,337,598.72 0.09
6 Jun-15 4,146,797.00 3,171,295.18 975,501.82 975,501.82 951,603,806,676.32 0.24 3,687,514.13 459,282.88 459,282.88 210,940,759,268.27 0.11 3,899,390.51 247,406.49 247,406.49 61,209,969,809.68 0.06
7 Jul-15 4,176,486.00 3,268,845.36 907,640.64 907,640.64 823,811,532,650.31 0.22 3,917,155.56 259,330.44 259,330.44 67,252,275,813.94 0.06 4,122,056.35 54,429.65 54,429.65 2,962,586,657.61 0.01
8 Aug-15 4,347,059.00 3,359,609.42 987,449.58 987,449.58 975,056,666,386.77 0.23 4,046,820.78 300,238.22 300,238.22 90,142,987,998.17 0.07 4,171,043.04 176,015.96 176,015.96 30,981,619,889.12 0.04
9 Sep-15 3,781,168.00 3,458,354.38 322,813.62 322,813.62 104,208,632,590.57 0.09 4,196,939.89 (415,771.89) 415,771.89 172,866,265,033.89 0.11 4,329,457.40 (548,289.40) 548,289.40 300,621,270,004.64 0.15
10 Oct-15 3,872,278.00 3,490,635.74 381,642.26 381,642.26 145,650,812,381.71 0.10 3,989,053.95 (116,775.95) 116,775.95 13,636,621,403.63 0.03 3,835,996.94 36,281.06 36,281.06 1,316,315,289.23 0.01
11 Nov-15 3,902,278.00 3,528,799.97 373,478.03 373,478.03 139,485,839,910.98 0.10 3,930,665.97 (28,387.97) 28,387.97 805,876,991.53 0.01 3,868,649.89 33,628.11 33,628.11 1,130,849,510.78 0.01
12 Dec-15 4,302,278.00 3,566,147.77 736,130.23 736,130.23 541,887,712,909.45 0.17 3,916,471.99 385,806.01 385,806.01 148,846,280,185.38 0.09 3,898,915.19 403,362.81 403,362.81 162,701,556,972.30 0.09
13 Jan-16 2,644,539.00 3,639,760.79 (995,221.79) 995,221.79 990,466,420,438.39 0.38 4,109,374.99 (1,464,835.99) 1,464,835.99 2,145,744,486,868.95 0.55 4,261,941.72 (1,617,402.72) 1,617,402.72 2,615,991,555,235.64 0.61
14 Feb-16 2,359,800.00 3,540,238.62 (1,180,438.62) 1,180,438.62 1,393,435,324,104.61 0.50 3,376,957.00 (1,017,157.00) 1,017,157.00 1,034,608,355,695.78 0.43 2,806,279.27 (446,479.27) 446,479.27 199,343,740,231.03 0.19
15 Mar-16 2,925,918.00 3,422,194.75 (496,276.75) 496,276.75 246,290,616,186.15 0.17 2,868,378.50 57,539.50 57,539.50 3,310,794,256.92 0.02 2,404,447.93 521,470.07 521,470.07 271,931,036,837.09 0.18
16 Apr-16 3,024,973.00 3,372,567.08 (347,594.08) 347,594.08 120,821,643,241.63 0.11 2,897,148.25 127,824.75 127,824.75 16,339,166,931.01 0.04 2,873,770.99 151,202.01 151,202.01 22,862,047,005.82 0.05
17 May-16 3,177,100.00 3,337,807.67 (160,707.67) 160,707.67 25,826,955,336.41 0.05 2,961,060.62 216,039.38 216,039.38 46,673,011,734.99 0.07 3,009,852.80 167,247.20 167,247.20 27,971,626,151.39 0.05
18 Jun-16 3,419,595.00 3,321,736.90 97,858.10 97,858.10 9,576,207,071.97 0.03 3,069,080.31 350,514.69 350,514.69 122,860,546,302.98 0.10 3,160,375.28 259,219.72 259,219.72 67,194,863,274.63 0.08
19 Jul-16 3,649,702.00 3,331,522.71 318,179.29 318,179.29 101,238,058,642.89 0.09 3,244,337.66 405,364.34 405,364.34 164,320,251,270.46 0.11 3,393,673.03 256,028.97 256,028.97 65,550,834,507.11 0.07
20 Aug-16 3,650,668.00 3,363,340.64 287,327.36 287,327.36 82,557,010,800.89 0.08 3,447,019.83 203,648.17 203,648.17 41,472,577,929.78 0.06 3,624,099.10 26,568.90 26,568.90 705,906,298.46 0.01
21 Sep-16 3,191,526.00 3,392,073.38 (200,547.38) 200,547.38 40,219,250,650.98 0.06 3,548,843.91 (357,317.91) 357,317.91 127,676,091,690.89 0.11 3,648,011.11 (456,485.11) 456,485.11 208,378,655,907.28 0.14
22 Oct-16 3,249,428.00 3,372,018.64 (122,590.64) 122,590.64 15,028,464,970.19 0.04 3,370,184.96 (120,756.96) 120,756.96 14,582,242,668.22 0.04 3,237,174.51 12,253.49 12,253.49 150,147,991.99 0.00
23 Nov-16 2,971,484.00 3,359,759.58 (388,275.58) 388,275.58 150,757,922,788.65 0.13 3,309,806.48 (338,322.48) 338,322.48 114,462,099,464.44 0.11 3,248,202.65 (276,718.65) 276,718.65 76,573,211,868.15 0.09
24 Dec-16 3,074,209.00 3,320,932.02 (246,723.02) 246,723.02 60,872,247,734.36 0.08 3,140,645.24 (66,436.24) 66,436.24 4,413,773,886.28 0.02 2,999,155.87 75,053.13 75,053.13 5,632,973,056.77 0.02
25 Jan-17 2,785,466.00 3,296,259.72 (510,793.72) 510,793.72 260,910,220,739.20 0.18 3,107,427.12 (321,961.12) 321,961.12 103,658,962,551.62 0.12 3,066,703.69 (281,237.69) 281,237.69 79,094,636,314.08 0.10
26 Feb-17 2,515,361.00 3,245,180.34 (729,819.34) 729,819.34 532,636,276,018.68 0.29 2,946,446.56 (431,085.56) 431,085.56 185,834,759,879.82 0.17 2,813,589.77 (298,228.77) 298,228.77 88,940,398,451.15 0.12
27 Mar-17 3,105,958.00 3,172,198.41 (66,240.41) 66,240.41 4,387,791,957.27 0.02 2,730,903.78 375,054.22 375,054.22 140,665,668,009.71 0.12 2,545,183.88 560,774.12 560,774.12 314,467,617,177.70 0.18
28 Apr-17 3,139,059.00 3,165,574.37 (26,515.37) 26,515.37 703,064,807.73 0.01 2,918,430.89 220,628.11 220,628.11 48,676,762,942.73 0.07 3,049,880.59 89,178.41 89,178.41 7,952,789,222.75 0.03
29 May-17 3,380,355.00 3,162,922.83 217,432.17 217,432.17 47,276,747,530.54 0.06 3,028,744.94 351,610.06 351,610.06 123,629,630,793.49 0.10 3,130,141.16 250,213.84 250,213.84 62,606,966,343.75 0.07
30 Jun-17 3,612,886.00 3,184,666.05 428,219.95 428,219.95 183,372,326,338.72 0.12 3,204,549.97 408,336.03 408,336.03 166,738,311,363.99 0.11 3,355,333.62 257,552.38 257,552.38 66,333,230,567.51 0.07
31 Jul-17 3,765,824.00 3,227,488.04 538,335.96 538,335.96 289,805,601,306.47 0.14 3,408,717.99 357,106.01 357,106.01 127,524,705,060.58 0.09 3,587,130.76 178,693.24 178,693.24 31,931,273,454.28 0.05
32 Aug-17 3,771,842.00 3,281,321.64 490,520.36 490,520.36 240,610,223,789.84 0.13 3,587,270.99 184,571.01 184,571.01 34,066,456,579.93 0.05 3,747,954.68 23,887.32 23,887.32 570,604,240.30 0.01
33 Sep-17 3,356,365.00 3,330,373.68 25,991.32 25,991.32 675,548,933.54 0.01 3,679,556.50 (323,191.50) 323,191.50 104,452,743,449.37 0.10 3,769,453.27 (413,088.27) 413,088.27 170,641,916,841.89 0.12
34 Oct-17 3,490,100.00 3,332,972.81 157,127.19 157,127.19 24,688,954,395.97 0.05 3,517,960.75 (27,860.75) 27,860.75 776,221,294.75 0.01 3,397,673.83 92,426.17 92,426.17 8,542,597,499.50 0.03
35 Nov-17 3,163,659.00 3,348,685.53 (185,026.53) 185,026.53 34,234,815,841.70 0.06 3,504,030.37 (340,371.37) 340,371.37 115,852,672,334.13 0.11 3,480,857.38 (317,198.38) 317,198.38 100,614,813,972.37 0.10
36 Dec-17 3,167,124.00 3,330,182.87 (163,058.87) 163,058.87 26,588,196,605.39 0.05 3,333,844.69 (166,720.69) 166,720.69 27,795,787,497.14 0.05 3,195,378.84 (28,254.84) 28,254.84 798,335,885.53 0.01
37 Jan-18 2,883,810.00 3,313,876.99 (430,066.99) 430,066.99 184,957,613,474.13 0.15 3,250,484.34 (366,674.34) 366,674.34 134,450,074,206.87 0.13 3,169,949.48 (286,139.48) 286,139.48 81,875,804,204.65 0.10
38 Feb-18 2,610,667.00 3,270,870.29 (660,203.29) 660,203.29 435,868,382,112.68 0.25 3,067,147.17 (456,480.17) 456,480.17 208,374,147,216.92 0.17 2,912,423.95 (301,756.95) 301,756.95 91,057,255,897.23 0.12
39 Mar-18 3,129,205.00 3,204,849.96 (75,644.96) 75,644.96 5,722,159,916.99 0.02 2,838,907.09 290,297.91 290,297.91 84,272,878,940.24 0.09 2,640,842.69 488,362.31 488,362.31 238,497,741,102.88 0.16
40 Apr-18 3,200,527.00 3,197,285.46 3,241.54 3,241.54 10,507,557.81 0.00 2,984,056.04 216,470.96 216,470.96 46,859,675,249.66 0.07 3,080,368.77 120,158.23 120,158.23 14,438,000,360.78 0.04
41 May-18 3,547,804.00 3,197,609.62 350,194.38 350,194.38 122,636,105,676.04 0.10 3,092,291.52 455,512.48 455,512.48 207,491,618,095.69 0.13 3,188,511.18 359,292.82 359,292.82 129,091,332,696.40 0.10
42 Jun-18 3,766,323.00 3,232,629.06 533,693.94 533,693.94 284,829,226,323.19 0.14 3,320,047.76 446,275.24 446,275.24 199,161,589,180.61 0.12 3,511,874.72 254,448.28 254,448.28 64,743,928,368.05 0.07
43 Jul-18 3,935,589.00 3,285,998.45 649,590.55 649,590.55 421,967,882,634.53 0.17 3,543,185.38 392,403.62 392,403.62 153,980,600,700.50 0.10 3,740,878.17 194,710.83 194,710.83 37,912,306,630.21 0.05
44 Aug-18 3,917,884.00 3,350,957.51 566,926.49 566,926.49 321,405,650,721.38 0.14 3,739,387.19 178,496.81 178,496.81 31,861,111,114.54 0.05 3,916,117.92 1,766.08 1,766.08 3,119,048.54 0.00
45 Sep-18 3,564,970.00 3,407,650.15 157,319.85 157,319.85 24,749,533,785.25 0.04 3,828,635.60 (263,665.60) 263,665.60 69,519,546,035.18 0.07 3,917,707.39 (352,737.39) 352,737.39 124,423,667,515.80 0.10
46 Oct-18 3,602,455.00 3,423,382.14 179,072.86 179,072.86 32,067,089,525.85 0.05 3,696,802.80 (94,347.80) 94,347.80 8,901,506,901.77 0.03 3,600,243.74 2,211.26 2,211.26 4,889,674.45 0.00
47 Nov-18 3,326,859.00 3,441,289.43 (114,430.43) 114,430.43 13,094,322,200.57 0.03 3,649,628.90 (322,769.90) 322,769.90 104,180,407,553.92 0.10 3,602,233.87 (275,374.87) 275,374.87 75,831,321,184.90 0.08
48 Dec-18 3,441,693.00 3,429,846.38 11,846.62 11,846.62 140,342,342.94 0.00 3,488,243.95 (46,550.95) 46,550.95 2,166,990,888.78 0.01 3,354,396.49 87,296.51 87,296.51 7,620,681,113.57 0.03
49 Jan-19 3,211,600.00 3,431,031.04 (219,431.04) 219,431.04 48,149,983,234.84 0.07 3,464,968.47 (253,368.47) 253,368.47 64,195,583,968.38 0.08 3,432,963.35 (221,363.35) 221,363.35 49,001,732,165.02 0.07
50 Feb-19 2,998,119.00 3,409,087.94 (410,968.94) 410,968.94 168,895,469,592.24 0.14 3,338,284.24 (340,165.24) 340,165.24 115,712,388,699.08 0.11 3,233,736.33 (235,617.33) 235,617.33 55,515,528,493.09 0.08
51 Mar-19 3,472,440.00 3,367,991.05 104,448.95 104,448.95 10,909,584,003.70 0.03 3,168,201.62 304,238.38 304,238.38 92,560,992,672.28 0.09 3,021,680.73 450,759.27 450,759.27 203,183,916,346.98 0.13
52 Apr-19 3,563,007.00 3,378,435.94 184,571.06 184,571.06 34,066,475,691.82 0.05 3,320,320.81 242,686.19 242,686.19 58,896,587,138.69 0.07 3,427,364.07 135,642.93 135,642.93 18,399,003,550.52 0.04
53 May-19 3,820,570.00 3,396,893.05 423,676.95 423,676.95 179,502,160,322.50 0.11 3,441,663.90 378,906.10 378,906.10 143,569,829,079.49 0.10 3,549,442.71 271,127.29 271,127.29 73,510,008,827.92 0.07
54 Jun-19 3,439,260.74 3,631,116.95 3,793,457.27
TOTAL 4,727,837.42 20,188,988.25 12,293,518,016,741.50 6.03 1,329,279.90 16,691,231.59 8,185,949,609,750.69 5.15 918,866.97 13,631,611.93 6,832,262,606,001.91 4.26
N 53.00 MAD 380,924.31 MAD 314,928.90 MAD 257,200.23
MSE 231,953,170,127.20 MSE 154,451,879,429.26 MSE 128,910,615,207.58
RMSE 481,615.17 RMSE 393,003.66 RMSE 359,041.24
MAPE (%) 11.37 MAPE (%) 9.72 MAPE (%) 8.03

jawaban D
Dari pemodelan diatas maka yang paling baik adalah menggunakan pemodelan menggunakan nilai constant 0.9 hal ini dapat di lihat dari nilai MAPE yang kecil (semakin kecil nilai MAPE maka semakin baik kemampuan forecastingnya) dengan
nilai forecast passengers di bulan Juni 2019 sebanyak 3,793,458 orang

Kesimpulan
dengan menggunakan 2 metode forcasting di atas (metode moving average dan metode Exponential smoothing models) maka dapat disimpulkan pemodelan menggunakan metode exponential smoothing model dengan nilai constant 0.9
menghasilkan nilai MAPE yang paling rendah yakni di angka 8.03% dengan nilai forecast passengers sebesar 3,793,458 orang
NO PERIODS NET SALES 5- moving average ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
1 2015 QUARTER 1 $ 115,000,000.00
2 2015 QUARTER 2 $ 120,000,000.00
3 2015 QUARTER 3 $ 117,000,000.00
4 2015 QUARTER 4 $ 130,000,000.00
5 2016 QUARTER 1 $ 116,000,000.00
6 2016 QUARTER 2 $ 121,000,000.00 $ 119,600,000.00 1,400,000.00 1,400,000.00
7 2016 QUARTER 3 $ 118,000,000.00 $ 120,800,000.00 (2,800,000.00) 2,800,000.00
8 2016 QUARTER 4 $ 131,000,000.00 $ 120,400,000.00 10,600,000.00 10,600,000.00
9 2017 QUARTER 1 $ 118,000,000.00 $ 123,200,000.00 (5,200,000.00) 5,200,000.00
10 2017 QUARTER 2 $ 123,000,000.00 $ 120,800,000.00 2,200,000.00 2,200,000.00
11 2017 QUARTER 3 $ 123,000,000.00 $ 122,200,000.00 800,000.00 800,000.00
12 2017 QUARTER 4 $ 136,000,000.00 $ 122,600,000.00 13,400,000.00 13,400,000.00
13 2018 QUARTER 1 $ 123,000,000.00 $ 126,200,000.00 (3,200,000.00) 3,200,000.00
14 2018 QUARTER 2 $ 128,000,000.00 $ 124,600,000.00 3,400,000.00 3,400,000.00
15 2018 QUARTER 3 $ 125,000,000.00 $ 126,600,000.00 (1,600,000.00) 1,600,000.00
16 2018 QUARTER 4 $ 139,000,000.00 $ 127,000,000.00 12,000,000.00 12,000,000.00
17 2019 QUARTER 1 $ 124,000,000.00 $ 130,200,000.00 (6,200,000.00) 6,200,000.00
18 2019 QUARTER 2 $ 130,000,000.00 $ 127,800,000.00 2,200,000.00 2,200,000.00
19 2019 QUARTER 3 $ 128,000,000.00 $ 129,200,000.00 (1,200,000.00) 1,200,000.00
20 2019 QUARTER 4 $ 142,000,000.00 $ 129,200,000.00 12,800,000.00 12,800,000.00
21 2020 QUARTER 1 $ 135,000,000.00 $ 132,600,000.00 2,400,000.00 2,400,000.00
22 2020 QUARTER 2 $ 138,000,000.00 $ 131,800,000.00 6,200,000.00 6,200,000.00
23 2020 QUARTER 3 $ 135,000,000.00 $ 134,600,000.00 400,000.00 400,000.00
24 2020 QUARTER 4 $ 152,000,000.00 $ 135,600,000.00 16,400,000.00 16,400,000.00
25 2021 QUARTER 1 $ 138,000,000.00 $ 140,400,000.00 (2,400,000.00) 2,400,000.00
26 2021 QUARTER 2 $ 141,000,000.00 $ 139,600,000.00 1,400,000.00 1,400,000.00
27 2021 QUARTER 3 $ 141,000,000.00 $ 140,800,000.00 200,000.00 200,000.00
28 2021 QUARTER 4 $ 153,000,000.00 $ 141,400,000.00 11,600,000.00 11,600,000.00
29 2022 QUARTER 1 $ 145,000,000.00

TOTAL 74,800,000.00 120,000,000.00

n MAD 5,217,391.30
23 MSE
RMSE

NO PERIODS NET SALES 0.1 ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR

1 2015 QUARTER 1 $ 115,000,000.00 115,000,000.00 - -

2 2015 QUARTER 2 $ 120,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 - -
3 2015 QUARTER 3 $ 117,000,000.00 120,000,000.00 (3,000,000.00) 3,000,000.00
4 2015 QUARTER 4 $ 130,000,000.00 119,700,000.00 10,300,000.00 10,300,000.00
5 2016 QUARTER 1 $ 116,000,000.00 120,730,000.00 (4,730,000.00) 4,730,000.00
6 2016 QUARTER 2 $ 121,000,000.00 120,257,000.00 743,000.00 743,000.00
7 2016 QUARTER 3 $ 118,000,000.00 120,331,300.00 (2,331,300.00) 2,331,300.00
8 2016 QUARTER 4 $ 131,000,000.00 120,098,170.00 10,901,830.00 10,901,830.00
9 2017 QUARTER 1 $ 118,000,000.00 121,188,353.00 (3,188,353.00) 3,188,353.00
10 2017 QUARTER 2 $ 123,000,000.00 120,869,517.70 2,130,482.30 2,130,482.30
11 2017 QUARTER 3 $ 123,000,000.00 121,082,565.93 1,917,434.07 1,917,434.07
12 2017 QUARTER 4 $ 136,000,000.00 121,274,309.34 14,725,690.66 14,725,690.66
13 2018 QUARTER 1 $ 123,000,000.00 122,746,878.40 253,121.60 253,121.60
14 2018 QUARTER 2 $ 128,000,000.00 122,772,190.56 5,227,809.44 5,227,809.44
15 2018 QUARTER 3 $ 125,000,000.00 123,294,971.51 1,705,028.49 1,705,028.49
16 2018 QUARTER 4 $ 139,000,000.00 123,465,474.36 15,534,525.64 15,534,525.64
17 2019 QUARTER 1 $ 124,000,000.00 125,018,926.92 (1,018,926.92) 1,018,926.92
18 2019 QUARTER 2 $ 130,000,000.00 124,917,034.23 5,082,965.77 5,082,965.77
19 2019 QUARTER 3 $ 128,000,000.00 125,425,330.81 2,574,669.19 2,574,669.19
20 2019 QUARTER 4 $ 142,000,000.00 125,682,797.72 16,317,202.28 16,317,202.28
21 2020 QUARTER 1 $ 135,000,000.00 127,314,517.95 7,685,482.05 7,685,482.05
22 2020 QUARTER 2 $ 138,000,000.00 128,083,066.16 9,916,933.84 9,916,933.84
23 2020 QUARTER 3 $ 135,000,000.00 129,074,759.54 5,925,240.46 5,925,240.46
24 2020 QUARTER 4 $ 152,000,000.00 129,667,283.59 22,332,716.41 22,332,716.41
25 2021 QUARTER 1 $ 138,000,000.00 131,900,555.23 6,099,444.77 6,099,444.77
26 2021 QUARTER 2 $ 141,000,000.00 132,510,499.71 8,489,500.29 8,489,500.29
27 2021 QUARTER 3 $ 141,000,000.00 133,359,449.74 7,640,550.26 7,640,550.26
28 2021 QUARTER 4 $ 153,000,000.00 134,123,504.76 18,876,495.24 18,876,495.24
29 2022 QUARTER 1 136,011,154.29

TOTAL 160,111,542.85 188,648,702.70

n MAD 6,737,453.67
28 MSE
RMSE
 ABSOLUTE %
SQUARE OF ERROR
ERROR

1,960,000,000,000.00 0.01
7,840,000,000,000.00 0.02
112,360,000,000,000.00 0.08
27,040,000,000,000.00 0.04
4,840,000,000,000.00 0.02
640,000,000,000.00 0.01
179,560,000,000,000.00 0.10
10,240,000,000,000.00 0.03
11,560,000,000,000.00 0.03
2,560,000,000,000.00 0.01
144,000,000,000,000.00 0.09
38,440,000,000,000.00 0.05
4,840,000,000,000.00 0.02
1,440,000,000,000.00 0.01
163,840,000,000,000.00 0.09
5,760,000,000,000.00 0.02
38,440,000,000,000.00 0.04
160,000,000,000.00 0.00
268,960,000,000,000.00 0.11
5,760,000,000,000.00 0.02
1,960,000,000,000.00 0.01
40,000,000,000.00 0.00
134,560,000,000,000.00 0.08

1,166,800,000,000,000.00 0.88

50,730,434,782,608.70
7,122,530.08
MAPE (%) 3.82

ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE
SQUARE OF ERROR 0.2 ERROR
ERROR ERROR

- - 115,000,000.00 - -
- - 120,000,000.00 - -
9,000,000,000,000.00 0.03 120,000,000.00 (3,000,000.00) 3,000,000.00
 106,090,000,000,000.00 0.08 119,400,000.00 10,600,000.00 10,600,000.00
22,372,900,000,000.00 0.04 121,520,000.00 (5,520,000.00) 5,520,000.00
552,049,000,000.00 0.01 120,416,000.00 584,000.00 584,000.00
5,434,959,690,000.00 0.02 120,532,800.00 (2,532,800.00) 2,532,800.00
118,849,897,348,900.00 0.08 120,026,240.00 10,973,760.00 10,973,760.00
10,165,594,852,609.00 0.03 122,220,992.00 (4,220,992.00) 4,220,992.00
4,538,954,830,613.28 0.02 121,376,793.60 1,623,206.40 1,623,206.40
3,676,553,412,796.74 0.02 121,701,434.88 1,298,565.12 1,298,565.12
216,845,965,502,365.00 0.11 121,961,147.90 14,038,852.10 14,038,852.10
64,070,542,715.95 0.00 124,768,918.32 (1,768,918.32) 1,768,918.32
27,329,991,509,899.80 0.04 124,415,134.66 3,584,865.34 3,584,865.34
2,907,122,163,056.91 0.01 125,132,107.73 (132,107.73) 132,107.73
241,321,486,983,916.00 0.11 125,105,686.18 13,894,313.82 13,894,313.82
1,038,212,069,126.32 0.01 127,884,548.95 (3,884,548.95) 3,884,548.95
25,836,541,035,616.70 0.04 127,107,639.16 2,892,360.84 2,892,360.84
6,628,921,460,962.25 0.02 127,686,111.32 313,888.68 313,888.68
266,251,090,084,070.00 0.11 127,748,889.06 14,251,110.94 14,251,110.94
59,066,634,302,785.80 0.06 130,599,111.25 4,400,888.75 4,400,888.75
98,345,576,841,876.30 0.07 131,479,289.00 6,520,711.00 6,520,711.00
35,108,474,490,961.90 0.04 132,783,431.20 2,216,568.80 2,216,568.80
498,750,222,367,564.00 0.15 133,226,744.96 18,773,255.04 18,773,255.04
37,203,226,519,106.40 0.04 136,981,395.97 1,018,604.03 1,018,604.03
72,071,615,245,924.30 0.06 137,185,116.77 3,814,883.23 3,814,883.23
58,378,008,349,198.80 0.05 137,948,093.42 3,051,906.58 3,051,906.58
356,322,072,482,904.00 0.12 138,558,474.74 14,441,525.26 14,441,525.26
141,446,779.79

2,284,150,141,086,969.00 1.38 107,233,898.94 149,352,632.93

MAD 5,334,022.60
81,576,790,753,106.00 MSE
9,031,987.09 RMSE
MAPE (%) 4.91
 ABSOLUTE % ABSOLUTE
SQUARE OF ERROR 0.3 ERROR
ERROR ERROR

- - 115,000,000.00 - -
- - 120,000,000.00 - -
9,000,000,000,000.00 0.03 120,000,000.00 (3,000,000.00) 3,000,000.00
 112,360,000,000,000.00 0.08 119,100,000.00 10,900,000.00 10,900,000.00
30,470,400,000,000.00 0.05 122,370,000.00 (6,370,000.00) 6,370,000.00
341,056,000,000.00 0.00 120,459,000.00 541,000.00 541,000.00
6,415,075,840,000.00 0.02 120,621,300.00 (2,621,300.00) 2,621,300.00
120,423,408,537,600.00 0.08 119,834,910.00 11,165,090.00 11,165,090.00
17,816,773,464,064.00 0.04 123,184,437.00 (5,184,437.00) 5,184,437.00
2,634,799,017,000.98 0.01 121,629,105.90 1,370,894.10 1,370,894.10
1,686,271,370,880.63 0.01 122,040,374.13 959,625.87 959,625.87
197,089,368,173,364.00 0.10 122,328,261.89 13,671,738.11 13,671,738.11
3,129,072,034,152.71 0.01 126,429,783.32 (3,429,783.32) 3,429,783.32
12,851,259,516,257.70 0.03 125,400,848.33 2,599,151.67 2,599,151.67
17,452,451,492.95 0.00 126,180,593.83 (1,180,593.83) 1,180,593.83
193,051,956,487,560.00 0.10 125,826,415.68 13,173,584.32 13,173,584.32
15,089,720,507,520.20 0.03 129,778,490.98 (5,778,490.98) 5,778,490.98
8,365,751,251,058.76 0.02 128,044,943.68 1,955,056.32 1,955,056.32
98,526,100,345.40 0.00 128,631,460.58 (631,460.58) 631,460.58
203,094,163,026,081.00 0.10 128,442,022.40 13,557,977.60 13,557,977.60
19,367,821,807,948.00 0.03 132,509,415.68 2,490,584.32 2,490,584.32
42,519,671,966,941.90 0.05 133,256,590.98 4,743,409.02 4,743,409.02
4,913,177,250,958.70 0.02 134,679,613.68 320,386.32 320,386.32
352,435,104,836,355.00 0.12 134,775,729.58 17,224,270.42 17,224,270.42
1,037,554,175,719.88 0.01 139,943,010.71 (1,943,010.71) 1,943,010.71
14,553,334,030,097.30 0.03 139,360,107.49 1,639,892.51 1,639,892.51
9,314,133,779,262.26 0.02 139,852,075.25 1,147,924.75 1,147,924.75
208,557,651,974,277.00 0.09 140,196,452.67 12,803,547.33 12,803,547.33
144,037,516.87

1,586,633,503,598,940.00 1.10 80,125,056.23 140,403,209.06

MAD 5,014,400.32
56,665,482,271,390.70 MSE
7,527,647.86 RMSE
MAPE (%) 3.92
 ABSOLUTE %
SQUARE OF ERROR 0.4 ERROR ABSOLUTE ERROR
ERROR

- - 115,000,000.00 - -
- - 120,000,000.00 - -
9,000,000,000,000.00 0.03 120,000,000.00 (3,000,000.00) 3,000,000.00
 118,810,000,000,000.00 0.08 118,800,000.00 11,200,000.00 11,200,000.00
40,576,900,000,000.00 0.05 123,280,000.00 (7,280,000.00) 7,280,000.00
292,681,000,000.00 0.00 120,368,000.00 632,000.00 632,000.00
6,871,213,690,000.00 0.02 120,620,800.00 (2,620,800.00) 2,620,800.00
124,659,234,708,100.00 0.09 119,572,480.00 11,427,520.00 11,427,520.00
26,878,387,006,969.00 0.04 124,143,488.00 (6,143,488.00) 6,143,488.00
1,879,350,633,414.79 0.01 121,686,092.80 1,313,907.20 1,313,907.20
920,881,810,373.24 0.01 122,211,655.68 788,344.32 788,344.32
186,916,422,921,083.00 0.10 122,526,993.41 13,473,006.59 13,473,006.59
11,763,413,647,530.60 0.03 127,916,196.04 (4,916,196.04) 4,916,196.04
6,755,589,421,390.00 0.02 125,949,717.63 2,050,282.37 2,050,282.37
1,393,801,788,159.10 0.01 126,769,830.58 (1,769,830.58) 1,769,830.58
173,543,323,835,383.00 0.09 126,061,898.35 12,938,101.65 12,938,101.65
33,390,957,959,948.80 0.05 131,237,139.01 (7,237,139.01) 7,237,139.01
3,822,245,201,803.82 0.02 128,342,283.40 1,657,716.60 1,657,716.60
398,742,461,883.81 0.00 129,005,370.04 (1,005,370.04) 1,005,370.04
183,818,756,472,623.00 0.10 128,603,222.03 13,396,777.97 13,396,777.97
6,203,010,238,380.30 0.02 133,961,933.22 1,038,066.78 1,038,066.78
22,499,929,146,767.90 0.03 134,377,159.93 3,622,840.07 3,622,840.07
102,647,390,943.20 0.00 135,826,295.96 (826,295.96) 826,295.96
296,675,491,522,422.00 0.11 135,495,777.57 16,504,222.43 16,504,222.43
3,775,290,601,961.65 0.01 142,097,466.54 (4,097,466.54) 4,097,466.54
2,689,247,431,564.99 0.01 140,458,479.93 541,520.07 541,520.07
1,317,731,241,466.84 0.01 140,675,087.96 324,912.04 324,912.04
163,930,824,180,062.00 0.08 140,805,052.77 12,194,947.23 12,194,947.23
145,683,031.66

1,428,886,074,312,230.00 1.04 64,207,579.16 142,000,751.51

MAD 5,071,455.41
51,031,645,511,151.10 MSE
7,143,643.71 RMSE
MAPE (%) 3.72
SQUARE OF ERROR ABSOLUTE % ERROR NO PERIODS

- - 1 2015 QUARTER 1
- - 2 2015 QUARTER 2
9,000,000,000,000.00 0.03 3 2015 QUARTER 3
 125,440,000,000,000.00 0.09 4 2015 QUARTER 4
52,998,400,000,000.00 0.06 5 2016 QUARTER 1
399,424,000,000.00 0.01 6 2016 QUARTER 2
6,868,592,640,000.00 0.02 7 2016 QUARTER 3
130,588,213,350,400.00 0.09 8 2016 QUARTER 4
37,742,444,806,144.00 0.05 9 2017 QUARTER 1
1,726,352,130,211.85 0.01 10 2017 QUARTER 2
621,486,766,876.27 0.01 11 2017 QUARTER 3
181,521,906,628,076.00 0.10 12 2017 QUARTER 4
24,168,983,550,907.20 0.04 13 2018 QUARTER 1
4,203,657,809,526.56 0.02 14 2018 QUARTER 2
3,132,300,268,197.59 0.01 15 2018 QUARTER 3
167,394,474,417,600.00 0.09 16 2018 QUARTER 4
52,376,181,012,518.70 0.06 17 2019 QUARTER 1
2,748,024,311,182.93 0.01 18 2019 QUARTER 2
1,010,768,922,690.63 0.01 19 2019 QUARTER 3
179,473,660,095,377.00 0.09 20 2019 QUARTER 4
1,077,582,649,373.17 0.01 21 2020 QUARTER 1
13,124,970,178,478.90 0.03 22 2020 QUARTER 2
682,765,009,429.67 0.01 23 2020 QUARTER 3
272,389,357,869,792.00 0.11 24 2020 QUARTER 4
16,789,232,085,022.90 0.03 25 2021 QUARTER 1
293,243,989,649.95 0.00 26 2021 QUARTER 2
105,567,836,273.98 0.00 27 2021 QUARTER 3
148,716,737,853,279.00 0.08 28 2021 QUARTER 4

1,434,594,328,181,010.00 1.06

51,235,511,720,750.30
7,157,898.55
MAPE (%) 3.78
 Percentage
Amount Change per
NET SALES Change per NO PERIODS
Quarter
Quarter
$ 115,000,000.00 1 2015 QUARTER 1
$ 120,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000.00 4.35% 2 2015 QUARTER 2
$ 117,000,000.00 $ (3,000,000.00) -2.50% 3 2015 QUARTER 3
$ 130,000,000.00 $ 13,000,000.00 11.11% 4 2015 QUARTER 4
$ 116,000,000.00 $ (14,000,000.00) -10.77% 5 2016 QUARTER 1
$ 121,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000.00 4.31% 6 2016 QUARTER 2
$ 118,000,000.00 $ (3,000,000.00) -2.48% 7 2016 QUARTER 3
$ 131,000,000.00 $ 13,000,000.00 11.02% 8 2016 QUARTER 4
$ 118,000,000.00 $ (13,000,000.00) -9.92% 9 2017 QUARTER 1
$ 123,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000.00 4.24% 10 2017 QUARTER 2
$ 123,000,000.00 $ - 0.00% 11 2017 QUARTER 3
$ 136,000,000.00 $ 13,000,000.00 10.57% 12 2017 QUARTER 4
$ 123,000,000.00 $ (13,000,000.00) -9.56% 13 2018 QUARTER 1
$ 128,000,000.00 $ 5,000,000.00 4.07% 14 2018 QUARTER 2
$ 125,000,000.00 $ (3,000,000.00) -2.34% 15 2018 QUARTER 3
$ 139,000,000.00 $ 14,000,000.00 11.20% 16 2018 QUARTER 4
$ 124,000,000.00 $ (15,000,000.00) -10.79% 17 2019 QUARTER 1
$ 130,000,000.00 $ 6,000,000.00 4.84% 18 2019 QUARTER 2
$ 128,000,000.00 $ (2,000,000.00) -1.54% 19 2019 QUARTER 3
$ 142,000,000.00 $ 14,000,000.00 10.94% 20 2019 QUARTER 4
$ 135,000,000.00 $ (7,000,000.00) -4.93% 21 2020 QUARTER 1
$ 138,000,000.00 $ 3,000,000.00 2.22% 22 2020 QUARTER 2
$ 135,000,000.00 $ (3,000,000.00) -2.17% 23 2020 QUARTER 3
$ 152,000,000.00 $ 17,000,000.00 12.59% 24 2020 QUARTER 4
$ 138,000,000.00 $ (14,000,000.00) -9.21% 25 2021 QUARTER 1
$ 141,000,000.00 $ 3,000,000.00 2.17% 26 2021 QUARTER 2
$ 141,000,000.00 $ - 0.00% 27 2021 QUARTER 3
$ 153,000,000.00 $ 12,000,000.00 8.51% 28 2021 QUARTER 4
29 2022 QUARTER 1
30 2022 QUARTER 2
31 2022 QUARTER 3
32 2022 QUARTER 4
33 2023 QUARTER 1
34 2023 QUARTER 2
35 2023 QUARTER 3
36 2023 QUARTER 4
37 2024 QUARTER 1
38 2024 QUARTER 2
39 2024 QUARTER 3
40 2024 QUARTER 4
41 2025 QUARTER 1
42 2025 QUARTER 2
43 2025 QUARTER 3
44 2025 QUARTER 4

NO PERIODS
1 2025 QUARTER 1
2 2025 QUARTER 2
3 2025 QUARTER 3
4 2025 QUARTER 4
 NET SALES TREND FORECAST
NET SALES
$ 115,000,000.00
$ 120,000,000.00 $180,000,000.00

$ 117,000,000.00 $160,000,000.00
$140,000,000.00 f(x) = 1064039.408867 x + 114571428.5
$120,000,000.00
$100,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
 NET SALES
$180,000,000.00
$160,000,000.00
$ 130,000,000.00 $140,000,000.00 f(x) = 1064039.408867 x + 114571428.5
$ 116,000,000.00 $120,000,000.00
$ 121,000,000.00
$100,000,000.00
$ 118,000,000.00
$ 131,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00

$ 118,000,000.00 $60,000,000.00
$ 123,000,000.00 $40,000,000.00
$ 123,000,000.00 $20,000,000.00
$ 136,000,000.00
$-
$ 123,000,000.00 0 5 10 15 20
$ 128,000,000.00
$ 125,000,000.00
$ 139,000,000.00
$ 124,000,000.00
$ 130,000,000.00
$ 128,000,000.00
$ 142,000,000.00
$ 135,000,000.00
$ 138,000,000.00
$ 135,000,000.00
$ 152,000,000.00
$ 138,000,000.00
$ 141,000,000.00
$ 141,000,000.00
$ 153,000,000.00
$ 145,428,571.43 $ 145,428,571.43
$ 146,492,610.84 $ 146,492,610.84
$ 147,556,650.25 $ 147,556,650.25
$ 148,620,689.66 $ 148,620,689.66
$ 149,684,729.06 $ 149,684,729.06
$ 150,748,768.47 $ 150,748,768.47
$ 151,812,807.88 $ 151,812,807.88
$ 152,876,847.29 $ 152,876,847.29
$ 153,940,886.70 $ 153,940,886.70
$ 155,004,926.11 $ 155,004,926.11
$ 156,068,965.52 $ 156,068,965.52
$ 157,133,004.93 $ 157,133,004.93
$ 158,197,044.33 $ 158,197,044.33
$ 159,261,083.74 $ 159,261,083.74
$ 160,325,123.15 $ 160,325,123.15
$ 161,389,162.56 $ 161,389,162.56

FORECAST NETT SALES

$ 158,197,044.33
$ 159,261,083.74
$ 160,325,123.15
$ 161,389,162.56
NET SALES

064039.408867 x + 114571428.571429
NET SALES

064039.408867 x + 114571428.571429

10 15 20 25 30