Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Thayer South China Sea Security Overview
Thayer South China Sea Security Overview
[EastSea,WestPhilippineSea] [ hl ]
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer RegionalStudies(Security) AustralianCommandandStaffCollege l d d ff ll October25,2011
Outline
1. 2. 2 3. 4. Overview ConflictingClaims Conflicting Claims RecentDevelopment p DriversofSecurityTensions
1.Overview 1. Overview
StrategicImportance
W ld Worldssecondbusiestsealinesof db i t li f communication Hydrocarbonresources(oilandgas) Fisheries
SeaLinesofCommunication
PatternsofOccupation
BinhMinh02 Incident ReedBank Incident
EEZ Claims Cl i
KeyDevelopments
January1974ChinaseizessouthernParacels March1988ChineseVietnamesenavalclash March 1988 Chinese Vietnamese naval clash 1992ScramblefortheSpratlys 1995ChinaoccupiesMischiefReef 2002DeclarationonConductofPartiesinthe SouthChinaSea(DOC) 200508 Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking 2005 08JointMarineSeismicUndertaking May2009Submissionsonextended continentalshelves continental shelves
Chinas9dash U shapedline Ushaped line layingclaimto historic waters (80% waters(80% oftheSouth ChinaSea)
UNCommissiononLimitsofContinentalShelf May13,2009
3.RecentDevelopments
200710SouthChinaSeatensionsreemerge
AggressiveunilateralfishingbanimposedbyChina
2009USNSImpeccable 2009 USNS Impeccable incident 2010Chinascoreinterest July2010USnationalinterest J l 2010 US ti li t t 2011Chineseaggressiveassertiveness July2011GuidelinestoImplementDOC g Oct.2011ChinaVietnamAgreement
Date 25/2 2/3 24/4 6/5 11/5 11/5 21/5 26/5 9/6
IncidentsinvolvingChina/ChineseVessels PLANFrigatefiresatFilipinofishingboats MVVeritasVoyagerforcedfromReedBank PLAN/CMSshipsunloadconstructionmaterials ChineseMarinevesselspottedatBombayShoal Chinese Marine vessel spotted at Bombay Shoal TwojetaircraftintrudeintoRPairspace Chinaimposesunilateralfishingban CMS/SalvageShipsintrudeintoSouthernBank BinhMinh2seismiccablecut Viking2seismiccablereportedlycut Viking 2 seismic cable reportedly cut
ChinaUSgeostrategicrivalry
WaningofUSprimacy Waning of US primacy
EnergySecurity
Chineseestimatesare7or8times greaterthanUS/Japaneseestimates China: South China sea contains 219 China:SouthChinaseacontains219 billionbarrelsofoilreserves
US:28billionbarrelsofoil b ll b l f l
China:SouthChinaSeaoilreservesare nearlyaslargeasSaudiArabia
EnergySecurity
ChinaestimatesthattheSouthChinaSea contains contains
14timestheestimatesofitsoilreservesand 10 times more than its gas reserves 10timesmorethanitsgasreserves
Hainan H i Island
FirstandSecondIslandChains
ChinasStringofPearls
YulinNavalBase
USNSImpeccableIncident2009
Territorialdefence thePhilippines
Conclusions
Sovereigntydisputesintractable DOCGuidelinesaworkinprogress Jointdevelopment? Joint development? MorebindingCodeofConduct? ChinaUSdifferonmilitaryactivitiesin EEZs EEZs
IncidentsatSeaAgreement?
Conclusions
Forcemodernizationhasresultedin maritimedomainbecomingmore congestedandcontested g Energynationalismontherise R Resourcecompetitioncouldaggravate ii ld maritimetensions MaritimeSecurityonregionalagenda
ADMM Plus and East Asia Summit ADMMPlusandEastAsiaSummit
SouthChinaSea [EastSea,WestPhilippineSea]
EmeritusProfessorCarlThayer Emeritus Professor Carl Thayer RegionalStudies(Security) AustralianCommandandStaffCollege l d d ff ll October25,2011
theGovernmentofthe DemocraticRepublicof Vietnam(DRVN)recognizes andsupportsthedeclaration dated4thSeptember,1958of p , theGovernmentofthe PeoplesRepublicofChina determiningterritorial g territorialwaters. TheGovernmentoftheDRVN respectsthisdecisionandwill respects this decision and will giveinstructionstoitsState bodiestorespectthe12mile territorialwatersofChinainall territorial waters of China in all theirrelationswiththe[PRC] inmaritimeareas.