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Bank of Maharashtra Result Updated
Bank of Maharashtra Result Updated
Bank of Maharashtra Result Updated
Bank of Maharashtra
Performance Highlights
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 7.1 2.5 (17.7) 2QFY11 461 220 52 % chg (yoy) 37.3 93.0 92.0
`48 `57
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 2QFY2012, Bank of Maharashtra posted a robust net profit growth of 92.0% yoy (primarily due to a low-base effect) to `100cr, above our estimates, due to higher than expected growth in net interest income as well as non-interest income and significantly lower provisioning expenses than built in by us. Sequential improvement in NIMs, healthy growth in fee income and sharp improvement in asset quality were the key positive takeaways from the results. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Remarkable quarter in terms of earning quality: During 2QFY2012, advances grew by a strong 24.0% yoy, while deposit grew by a moderate 12.5% yoy. Consequently, the banks incremental CD ratio for 2QFY2012 stood at 227.6%, leading to overall CD ratio improving from 69.1% in 1QFY2012 to 72.1% in 2QFY2012. CASA deposits growth was comparable to the deposit growth at 12.4% yoy, with saving account deposits rising by 13.3% yoy. On the back of reasonable growth in CASA deposits, the bank was able to improve its CASA ratio albeit marginally to 40.7%. During 2QFY2012, the yield on advances for the bank increased by 62bp to 11.5%, while the cost of deposits increased by a lower 36bp, leading to a 16bp qoq expansion in calculated NIMs. The bank surprised on the asset quality front with slippages declining by 50.3% qoq to `93cr (average quarterly slippages of `226cr since 1QFY2010). The slippages which have been on a declining trend since 1QFY2011 onwards, improved sharply in 2QFY2012 to 0.8%, compared to 1.6% in 1QFY2012 and 4.0% in 1QFY2011. The gross NPA ratio improved to 2.2% compared to 2.4% in 1QFY2012, while the net NPA ratio halved from 1.2% in 1QFY2012 to 0.6%. The provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) improved further to 86.0%. Outlook and valuation: We expect the bank to deliver a healthy 38.1% earnings CAGR over FY201113E on the back of relatively better NIM, pick-up in fee income and improving asset quality. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations, in our view, of 0.6x FY2013E ABV vs. its five-year range of 0.61.2x and median of 0.9x. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a target price of `57. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 79.2 8.8 1.1 10.9
3m (9.0) (11.4)
FY2010 1,296 3.2 440 17.2 2.1 10.2 4.7 1.0 0.7 19.7
FY2011 1,968 51.9 330 (24.8) 2.8 6.2 7.8 0.8 0.4 11.3
FY2012E 2,444 24.1 483 46.3 3.1 8.9 5.4 0.7 0.5 14.1
FY2013E 2,536 3.8 620 28.3 2.9 11.7 4.1 0.6 0.6 16.5
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
2QFY12 1QFY12 % chg (qoq) 2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 1,800 1,371 427 0 3 1,167 633 145 778 353 228 125 425 278 147 46 100 31.5 1,644 1,237 401 1 5 1,053 591 173 765 350 229 121 415 224 191 69 122 36.2 9.5 10.8 6.4 (85.6) (41.5) 10.9 7.1 (16.6) 1.7 0.8 (0.4) 2.9 2.5 24.5 (23.3) (33.1) (17.7) (464)bp 1,308 929 372 6 1 847 461 118 579 359 242 117 220 176 44 (8) 52 (18.5) 37.6 47.6 14.7 (97.7) 118.9 37.8 37.3 22.9 34.4 (1.6) (5.6) 6.5 93.0 58.1 232.2 92.0 5001bp
Var. (%) 13.9 15.8 14.3 (4.3) 36.1 45.0 22.0 18.5 23.7
2QFY12 50,043 69,376 72.1 6,550 21,699 28,249 40.7 11.9 7.1 6.3 11.5 7.1 9.2 6.0 3.3 45.3 1,094 2.2 284 0.6 86.0 0.8
1QFY12 47,026 68,050 69.1 6,526 21,106 27,632 40.6 12.6 7.6 6.0 10.9 7.1 8.8 5.7 3.2 45.8 1,148 2.4 531 1.2 73.2 1.6
% chg (qoq) 6.4 1.9 303bp 0.4 2.8 2.2 11bp (71)bp (45)bp 36bp 62bp 1bp 37bp 31bp 16bp (41)bp (4.7) (29)bp (46.5) (58)bp 1,275bp (81)bp
2QFY11 % chg (yoy) 40,368 61,661 65.5 5,989 19,153 25,142 40.8 13.8 7.7 5.3 9.3 7.1 7.7 5.0 2.7 61.9 1,467 3.6 880 2.2 55.8 2.3 24.0 12.5 667bp 9.4 13.3 12.4 (6)bp (194)bp (61)bp 109bp 225bp 1bp 154bp 100bp 57bp (1,660)bp (25.4) (143)bp (67.7) (161)bp 3,017bp (153)bp
CASA yoy growth (%, RHS) 35.0 28.0 21.0 14.0 7.0 -
69.7
70.1
69.1
39.0
65.5
36.0
12.1 13.2
14.7 10.4
16.3 5.6
11.6 14.2
24.0 12.5
40.8
40.2
40.4
40.6
NIM improves
During 2QFY2012, the yield on advances for the bank increased by 62bp to 11.5%, while the cost of deposits increased by a lower 36bp, leading to a 16bp sequential expansion in calculated NIMs. Management is targeting to maintain the banks NIM at 3.15% for FY2012 (reported NIMs of 3.18% for 1QFY2012) as compared to 2.80% in FY2011 on the back of focus on better yielding retail and SME advances.
40.7
Out of the `278cr provisioning expenses for the quarter, `185cr pertained to the catch-up counter cyclical provisions required under the RBIs 70% NPA coverage norm. With this provisioning, the bank has now achieved a provision coverage of 70% on NPAs as of 2QFY2011.
3.6 2.2
3.2 1.9
2.5 1.3
2.4 1.2
2.2 0.6
20.0 100.0 80.0 45.3 60.0 40.0 20.0 1.8 -
52.2
45.8
Investment arguments
Healthy CASA share ensures low-cost funding
Bank of Maharashtra has enjoyed a healthy CASA ratio in the vicinity of 40% over the past several years on the back of strong rural and semi-urban presence (accounting for ~55% of the entire branch network). Branch expansion seems to be gradually picking up, with the addition of 69 branches in FY2011 and a target of adding similar number of branches in FY2012. Steady branch expansion and moderate balance sheet growth strategy is expected to aid the bank in maintaining its CASA share at ~40% levels over FY201213. Also, management has been focusing on reduction of dependence on bulk deposits. The benefit of healthy CASA ratio and a relatively lower dependence on bulk deposits is reflected in the banks relatively lower cost of deposits (at 6.3% for 2QFY2012) than peers.
Attractive valuations
We expect the bank to deliver a healthy 38.1% earnings CAGR over FY201113E on the back of relatively better NIM, pick-up in fee income and improving asset quality. We have tweaked our estimates to factor in better than expected NIM trajectory and holding up of asset quality leading to reduced provisioning burden. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations, in our view, of 0.6x FY2013E ABV vs. its five-year range of 0.61.2x and median of 0.9x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `57, implying an upside of 19.5% from current levels.
Earlier estimates FY2012 15.0 14.0 39.4 2.9 12.0 (15.0) 10.0 1.9 0.1 FY2013 18.0 14.0 38.4 2.6 13.9 12.0 12.0 1.9 0.2
Revised estimates FY2012 17.0 13.0 39.7 3.1 13.7 (19.0) 5.0 1.9 0.1 FY2013 17.0 14.0 38.7 2.9 11.7 12.0 12.0 2.1 0.2
FY2013 Earlier estimates 2,352 678 3,030 1,702 1,328 484 844 274 570 Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,536 674 3,210 1,623 1,587 670 918 298 620 7.8 (0.5) 5.9 (4.6) 19.5 38.3 8.7 8.7 8.7
Earlier estimates 2,255 595 2,850 1,519 1,331 640 691 224 467
Revised Var. (%) estimates 2,444 603 3,047 1,449 1,598 883 716 232 483 8.3 1.4 6.9 (4.6) 20.1 37.9 3.6 3.6 3.6
0.4x
0.7x
1x
1.3x
1.6x
Reco. Buy Buy Accumulate Buy Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Buy Accumulate Buy Neutral Neutral Buy Neutral Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Buy Buy Neutral
CMP (`) 1,124 386 486 870 23 278 150 118 744 324 48 451 101 410 74 104 206 97 822 296 982 1,949 102 65 240 71 53
Tgt. price (`) 1,414 444 519 1,146 24 324 174 943 371 57 489 220 104 325 1,129 2,335 125 286 91 -
Upside (%) 25.8 15.2 6.7 31.6 6.2 16.5 15.9 26.8 14.4 19.5 19.2 6.6 7.3 9.8 15.0 19.8 22.7 19.3 28.0 -
FY2013E P/ABV (x) 1.8 1.0 3.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7
FY2013E Tgt P/ABV (x) 2.3 1.2 3.5 2.1 1.2 2.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 -
FY2013E P/E (x) 9.8 7.9 16.9 12.6 6.7 9.2 4.2 5.3 5.6 5.4 4.1 5.3 5.0 4.1 3.6 4.9 5.3 3.9 5.7 5.2 6.1 7.5 4.7 4.0 5.0 4.3 6.5
FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 17.7 19.5 30.5 24.1 15.6 19.9 8.9 (0.9) 10.6 15.2 38.1 (2.8) (14.6) 2.3 5.8 12.3 0.2 20.3 6.7 5.4 7.2 41.4 9.1 14.0 9.6 11.7 (3.2)
FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4
FY2013E RoE (%) 20.0 14.0 20.9 15.6 18.2 20.8 17.7 15.8 19.6 17.1 16.5 17.1 14.2 16.8 16.2 14.0 17.4 15.9 16.4 13.9 20.0 21.9 15.7 16.5 18.1 13.8 10.5
IndBk
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) Preference Dividend PAT avl. to Eq. shareholders - YoY Growth (%) FY08 1,129 3.2 380 0.5 1,509 2.5 836 12.1 673 (7.4) 150 (61.6) 523 55.6 194 37.2 328 20.8 328 20.8 FY09 1,257 11.3 500 31.5 1,757 16.4 963 15.1 794 18.0 282 88.2 511 (2.2) 136 26.6 375 14.2 375 14.2 FY10 1,296 3.2 591 18.2 1,887 7.5 1,073 11.4 815 2.6 246 (13.0) 569 11.3 129 22.7 440 17.2 440 17.2 FY11 1,968 51.9 531 (10.2) 2,499 32.4 1,644 53.2 855 5.0 467 90.1 388 (31.8) 57 14.8 330 (24.8) 34 297 (32.5) FY12E 2,444 24.1 603 13.7 3,047 21.9 1,449 (11.9) 1,598 86.9 883 88.9 716 84.5 232 32.4 483 46.3 55 429 44.5 FY13E 2,536 3.8 674 11.7 3,210 5.4 1,623 12.0 1,587 (0.7) 670 (24.1) 918 28.3 298 32.4 620 28.3 55 565 31.9
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 431 431 1,351 41,758 23.1 199 2,168 2,244 48,151 3,894 332 12,283 29,286 27.8 220 2,136 48,151 23.4 FY09 431 431 2,087 52,255 25.1 190 2,068 2,001 59,030 3,881 224 18,382 34,291 17.1 655 1,597 59,030 22.6 FY10 431 431 2,428 63,304 21.1 129 2,668 2,096 71,056 5,315 1,379 21,324 40,315 17.6 660 2,063 71,056 20.4 FY11 1,070 482 588 2,901 66,845 5.6 577 2,500 2,550 76,442 3,846 203 22,491 46,881 16.3 667 2,354 76,442 7.6 FY12E 1,070 482 588 3,218 75,535 13.0 652 2,925 2,981 86,380 4,910 230 22,999 54,850 17.0 731 2,660 86,380 13.0 FY13E 1,070 482 588 3,643 86,109 14.0 743 3,422 3,485 98,473 5,597 262 24,598 64,175 17.0 808 3,033 98,473 14.0
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Pref. Div. RoA after Pref. Div Leverage RoE 2.6 0.3 2.2 0.2 2.4 0.7 3.1 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.8 0.8 25.0 18.9 2.3 0.5 1.8 0.3 2.1 0.6 2.8 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 28.0 19.6 2.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 1.9 0.6 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.7 29.1 19.7 2.7 0.6 2.0 0.1 2.1 0.6 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 27.6 11.3 3.0 1.1 1.9 0.0 1.9 0.7 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 26.3 14.1 2.7 0.7 2.0 0.0 2.1 0.7 2.7 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.6 26.6 16.5 6.3 1.2 4.2 5.5 1.0 3.1 4.7 1.0 4.2 7.8 0.8 4.2 5.4 0.7 4.2 4.1 0.6 5.2 7.6 39.6 2.0 8.7 46.3 1.5 10.2 48.6 2.0 6.2 57.3 2.0 8.9 67.6 2.0 11.7 76.4 2.5 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.2 66.8 2.3 0.8 1.2 0.3 65.9 3.0 1.6 2.5 0.4 45.2 2.5 1.3 1.7 0.5 47.3 3.1 0.7 1.9 1.0 79.1 3.8 0.7 2.1 0.6 81.4 42.2 70.1 10.9 5.4 35.7 65.6 9.9 5.0 36.9 63.7 10.5 5.3 40.4 70.1 12.3 7.4 39.7 72.6 12.4 7.1 38.7 74.5 12.6 7.0 2.7 55.4 0.8 18.9 2.5 54.8 0.7 19.6 2.1 56.8 0.7 19.7 2.8 65.8 0.4 11.3 3.1 47.5 0.5 14.1 2.9 50.5 0.6 16.5 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Bank of Maharashtra No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11