22/1/24, 9:33 WPC's Short Range Public Discussion

Short Range Public Discussion

(Latest Discussion - Issued 2006Z Jan 21, 2024)

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 22 2024 - 00Z Wed Jan 24 2024

...Heavy rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains,

Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley; Moderate Rain/Freezing Rain over parts of
the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley...

...Heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday and Higher
elevation snow across the West; Moderate to heavy snow over the Great
Lakes on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern

California, Southern California, and the Western Gulf Coast/Lower
Mississippi Valley...

High pressure over the Central Appalachians/ Mid-Atlantic Middle

Mississippi Valley will slowly move over the Western Atlantic by Tuesday
evening. Cold air associated with the high will linger over the
Central/Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio
Valleys.

In addition, the flow around the area of high pressure over the Eastern U.
S. will stream moisture northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico combined
with upper-level energy, which will aid in producing rain over parts of
eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday into Tuesday.
The moisture flow will also produce showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Western Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday
into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, the showers and thunderstorms continue over eastern Texas,

Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys, producing heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
eastern Texas, the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the moisture flows northward into the cold air over the country
s middle part, producing heavy rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley from Sunday evening into
Monday evening. Additionally, light rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes and Sunday evening
into Monday evening.

From Monday evening into Tuesday, the rain/freezing rain moves more into
the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley, creating moderate rain/freezing rain
over the region. Light rain/freezing rain will continue over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, a front moving southward out of Central Canada moves into the
Upper Great Lakes from Monday evening into Tuesday. The system will
produce moderate to heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes into the Lower
Great Lakes on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front moves over Southern California overnight Sunday into

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22/1/24, 9:33 WPC's Short Range Public Discussion
Monday and dissipates by Tuesday evening. In addition, a plume of moisture
will move over parts of Northern California, producing heavy rain from
Saturday into Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of Northern California into Monday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies,
and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, the moisture will produce heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada
Mountains from Sunday evening into Monday evening. The system moving away
from the area will produce lighter snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains
from Monday evening into Tuesday.

On Monday, the plume of moisture moves southward, flowing into Southern

California, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California Monday into
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, with a steady flow of moisture moving over the West, snow will
fall over the highest elevations from the Pacific Northwest to the
Southwest.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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