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GIS-based mapping for marine geohazards in seabed fluid leakage areas (Gulf of
Cadiz, Spain)

Article in Marine Geophysical Research · March 2011

DOI: 10.1007/s11001-011-9135-z

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Manuscript Number: MARI118R3

Title: GIS-based mapping for marine geohazards in seabed fluid leakage areas (Gulf of Cadiz, Spain)

Article Type: SI Seafloor Mapping

Keywords: Susceptibility maps, GIS, Gulf of Cadiz, Marine Geohazard

Corresponding Author: Ricardo Leon

Corresponding Author's Institution:

First Author: Ricardo Leon

Order of Authors: Ricardo Leon;Luis Somoza

Abstract: This paper applies, for the first time in offshore deepwater, a methodology based on
geographic information systems (GIS) for seafloor susceptibility assessment as a first approach to
marine geohazard mapping in fluid leakage areas (slope instabilities, gas escapes, seabed collapses,
pockmarks, etc). The assessment was carried out in a known seabed fluid flow province located on the
Iberian margin of the Gulf of Cádiz, Spain. The methodology (based on statistical bivariate analysis)
creates a susceptibility map that defines the likelihood of occurrence of seafloor features related to
fluid flow: crater-like depressions and submarine landslides. It is based on the statistical index (Wi)
method (Van Westen 1997), in which Wi is a function of the cartographic density of seafloor features
on "factor maps". The factors selected monitor the seafloor's capability to store and transfer
hydrocarbon gases and gravitational instability triggers: geology-lithology, gas hydrate stability zone
thickness (temperature, pressure-water depth and geothermal gradient), occurrence of diapirs,
proximity to faults or lineaments and slope angle of the seafloor. Results show that the occurrence of
seafloor features related to fluid flow is highest where the factors "gas source and store" and
"pathways of fluid escape" converge. This means that they are particularly abundant over diapirs in
contourite deposits, in the vicinity of faults, and inside theoretical gas hydrate stability fields thinned
by warm undercurrents. Furthermore, the submarine landslides located on the Palaeozoic-Toarcian
basement are not related to fluid leakage.
This methodology provides helpful information for hazard mitigation in regional selection of potential
drill sites, deep-water construction sites or pipeline routes. It is an easily-applied and useful tool for
taking the first step in risk assessment on a regional scale for vast areas where fluid leakage may be
present, the geological model is known and the geological hazardous features have already been
mapped.

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1 GIS-based mapping for marine geohazards in seabed fluid

2 leakage areas (Gulf of Cadiz, Spain)
3
4 Ricardo Leóna* and Luis Somozaa

5 * Corresponding author, E-mail: r.leon@igme.es

6 a
. IGME, Geological Survey of Spain, Rios Rosas 23, 28003-Madrid, Spain.
7
8
9
10 ABSTRACT

11
12 This paper applies, for the first time in offshore deepwater, a method based on geographic
13 information systems (GIS) for seafloor susceptibility assessment as a first approach to marine
14 geohazard mapping in fluid leakage areas (slope instabilities, gas escapes, seabed collapses,
15 pockmarks, etc.). The assessment was carried out in a known seabed fluid-flow province located on
16 the Iberian margin of the Gulf of Cádiz, Spain. The method (based on statistical bivariate analysis)
17 creates a susceptibility map that defines the likelihood of occurrence of seafloor features related to
18 fluid flow: crater-like depressions and submarine landslides. It is based on the statistical index (Wi)
19 method (Van Westen 1997), in which Wi is a function of the cartographic density of seafloor
20 features on “factor maps”. The factors selected monitor the seafloor’s capability to store and
21 transfer hydrocarbon gases and gravitational instability triggers: geology-lithology, gas hydrate
22 stability zone thickness (temperature, pressure–water depth and geothermal gradient), occurrence
23 of diapirs, proximity to faults or lineaments, and slope angle of the seafloor. Results show that the
24 occurrence of seafloor features related to fluid flow is highest where the factors “gas source and
25 storage” and “pathways of fluid escape” converge. This means that they are particularly abundant
26 over diapirs in contourite deposits, in the vicinity of faults, and inside theoretical gas hydrate
27 stability fields thinned by warm undercurrents. Furthermore, the submarine landslides located on
28 the Palaeozoic-Toarcian basement are not related to fluid leakage.
29 This methodology provides helpful information for hazard mitigation in regional selection
30 of potential drill sites, deep-water construction sites or pipeline routes. It is an easily applied and
31 useful tool for taking the first step in risk assessment on a regional scale for vast areas where fluid
32 leakage may be present, the geological model is known, and the geologically hazardous features
33 have already been mapped.
34
35 Keywords: Susceptibility maps, GIS, Gulf of Cadiz, Marine Geohazard.

36

1
37 1. INTRODUCTION

38 Seepage-related geomorphic seafloor features are direct indicators of hydrocarbon migration that

39 provide a sign of hydrocarbon potential in deep sediments (Heggland 1998). Fluid expulsion may play a

40 role in potential instabilities on slopes (Prior and Coleman 1984; Evans et al. 1996; Yun et al. 1999;

41 Cochonat et al. 2002) and involve a risk for human activities (Sultan et al. 2001; Elverhøi et al. 2002).

42 Seafloor features on continental margins, such as mud volcanoes, pockmarks, collapses, and

43 hydrocarbon-derived authigenic carbonates (HDACs) are thought to result from the sometimes

44 catastrophic expulsion of large volumes of fluid (Bayon et al. 2007; Gay et al. 2007; Judd and Hovland

45 2007). Occurrence of these seafloor features is controlled by factors that define the source and storage of

46 fluids and factors that drive their migration. Seafloor features related to fluid leakages indicate areas

47 where the increase in pore pressure due to free gas accumulation in sediment pore spaces decreases the

48 effective stress and shear strength of the sediments and can cause slope failures (e.g. Prior and Coleman

49 1984; Hovland and Judd 1988; Yun et al. 1999).

50 The risk analysis considers three phases in the study of geological processes, each implying a

51 higher level of knowledge: predisposition of a seafloor to the occurrence of a given process

52 (susceptibility), probability of occurrence (hazard), and induced economic or human damage (risk) (Ayala

53 et al. 1987). In onshore environments, susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment have become topics

54 of major interest with the development of geographic information system (GIS) techniques for

55 geoscientists, engineering professionals, and managers at a local level (Varnes 1984; Carrara et al. 1991;

56 Lee et al. 2002). Landslide susceptibility may be assessed through heuristic, statistical, and deterministic

57 approaches (Soeters and Van Westen 1996; Van Westen and Terlien 1996).

58 The aim of this study was to produce susceptibility maps of seafloor features related to fluid flow

59 using the statistical index (Wi) method (Van Westen 1997). This paper presents a method based on GIS

60 technologies for susceptibility assessment of potential crater-like depressions and submarine landslides in

61 areas of fluid leakage.

62 As a case study to apply and validate the presented method, we selected a venting area of the

63 Gulf of Cadiz, the Tasyo field (Somoza et al. 2003), where the oceanic and geologic conditions may

64 promote preferential areas of fluid pathways and potential hydrate dissociation areas. These conditions

65 are: (a) widespread occurrence of hydrocarbon-enriched fluids affecting the seafloor, such as mud

66 volcanoes, pockmark fields, and carbonate chimneys (Baraza and Ercilla 1996; Somoza et al. 2002; León

2
67 et al. 2006); (b) occurrence of gas hydrates related to high accumulation of hydrocarbon gases in the

68 subsurface, such as diapiric ridges and mud volcanoes (Ivanov et al. 2000; Grevemeyer et al. 2009); and

69 (c) a complex pattern of warm and cold deep-water currents due to the Mediterranean outflow

70 undercurrent that sweeps the seafloor on this part of the continental margin (Ochoa and Bray 1991;

71 Bower et al. 2002) (Fig. 1).

72
73
74 2. GEOLOGIC AND OCEANIC SETTINGS

75 The Gulf of Cádiz is located on the west side of the Alpine-Mediterranean orogenic belt (Fig. 1).

76 The NW-SE African-Eurasian convergence (Platt et al. 2006) caused the westward drift of the Betic-

77 Rifean Arc and the emplacement of huge chaotic masses named the Allochthonous Unit of the Gulf of

78 Cádiz (AUGC), which is responsible for widespread mud and salt diapirism (Maldonado et al. 1999;

79 Fernández-Puga 2004; Medialdea et al. 2004). Diapirs, belonging to the Miocene M1 formation

80 (Maldonado et al. 1999), are composed mainly of cohesive, low-porosity, grey-black marly clays with

81 limestones and plastic and compacted green clays (Maldonado et al. 1999). Major tectonic structures

82 comprise thrust faults, extensional faults, and strike-slip faults, to which diapirism is closely related

83 (Maldonado et al. 1999), revealing an intense activity of seabed fluid flow on both the Iberian and the

84 African margins (Fernández-Puga et al. 2007; Medialdea et al. 2009; León et al. 2006, 2010).

85 The study area is located in the Tasyo field (Somoza et al. 2003). This province contains

86 numerous seabed fluid flow features such as mud volcanoes, some of them bearing hydrates (Ivanov et al.

87 2000; Gardner 2001; Somoza et al. 2000, 2003), HDAC chimneys (Diaz del Rio et al. 2003; Pinheiro et

88 al. 2003) and crater-like depressions (Baraza and Ercilla 1996; León et al. 2006, 2010). A bottom

89 simulating reflector has been observed locally and as discontinuous levels on the Iberian (Somoza et al.

90 2000; Casas et al. 2003) and Moroccan slopes (Depreiter et al. 2005).

91 The upper and middle slopes of the Tasyo field are covered by the contourite depositional system

92 (CDS) (Faugères et al. 1984) generated by the Mediterranean outflow water (MOW). The CDS is

93 composed of large, elongated mounded and sheeted contourite drifts that are 10 km long (Faugères et al.

94 1984; Habgood et al. 2003; Hernández-Molina et al. 2003) and is a sedimentary stacked Plio-Quaternary

95 sequence that is very well sorted with low cohesion of silty sands and sandy silts. Sandy contourites are

3
 96 less cohesive than clayey sediments and are also susceptible to liquefaction under dynamic loading

97 (Wilson et al. 2003).

98 In the study area, the (mainly Palaeozoic) basement outcrops locally on the Guadalquivir Bank

99 (Figs. 2, 6a). It is composed of very cohesive wackes similar to the Culm facies of Upper Visean

100 (Carboniferous) age, undated basalts and limestones of probable Toarcian (Early Jurassic) age (Baldy et

101 al. 1977). Intra-slope diapiric basins (Habgood et al. 2003) are located on the lower slope of the study

102 area, and are composed of pelagic sediments and greyish-brown clays that are rich in foraminifera and

103 bioturbated, with a terrigenous admixture and irregular, patchy laminated intervals (Kenyon et al. 2000).

104 The MOW is a geostrophic undercurrent flowing between 600 and 1500 m water depth and

105 intercalated between the North Atlantic Deep Water and the North Atlantic Central Water. It warms the

106 seafloor, flowing westward from the Strait of Gibraltar towards San Vicente Cape along several

107 channelled branches (contourite channels, furrows and moats) (Kenyon and Belderson 1973; García et al.

108 2009) controlled by the positive relief of diapiric ridges (Hernandez-Molina et al. 2003).

109 Glacial/interglacial increases in the Mediterranean outflow gave rise to episodic floods of the MOW

110 undercurrent over the Tasyo field, leading to the formation of sedimentary lobes and submarine fans at

111 the ends of the channels that cross this field (Kenyon and Belderson 1973; Habgood et al. 2003).

112
113 3. DATA AND PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT

114 3.1. DATA

115 In this study, a broad database obtained in the Gulf was used (Fig. 2). Multibeam echo-sounder

116 (MBES) data were acquired aboard the R/V Hespérides using a hull-mounted Simrad EM-12S-120

117 (TASYO 2000 cruise), which enabled simultaneous collection of high-resolution seafloor bathymetry and

118 backscatter data. The Simrad EM-12S-120 operated at a frequency of 13 kHz with 81 beams (swath width

119 of 120º) triggering with pulse lengths ranging from 2 to 10 ms and a vertical resolution of 0.6 m. Regional

120 bathymetric data were collected from the GEBCO Digital Atlas (GEBCO 2003) in order to build the map

121 of slope angle of the seafloor.

122 The Sparker seismic profiles used in this study (Anastasya-00 cruises) were acquired with an

123 energy source ranging from 3500 to 7000 joules, a recording length of 2 s two-way travel time and a

124 frequency range of 500 Hz to 4 kHz, providing a medium resolution (1–10 m) and a penetration of 100 to Comment [A1]: Should this say 500 Hz to 4
kHz?
125 1000 m. The TOPAS profiles collected during the TASYO 2000 cruise were obtained with a chirp
ok, 500 Hz

4
126 wavelet at two simultaneous primary frequencies of 15 and 18 kHz, providing a resolution of 0.5–1 m and

127 a maximum penetration of 100 m. Digital data were recorded using Delph2 Triton-Elics software, which

128 made it possible to study certain details with post-processing techniques. Positioning during the swath

129 bathymetry and seismic cruises was done with Global Positioning System (GPS) and differential GPS

130 techniques.

131
132 3.2. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY FOR SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT

133 The proposed methodology analyzes the geologic hazard by means of the susceptibility

134 assessment. The term ―susceptibility‖ is employed here to define the likelihood of occurrence of crater-

135 like depressions and submarine landslides in fluid leakage areas. The proposed method, susceptibility

136 assessment, is applied as a first step in the risk assessment: preferably on regional scales and when few

137 historical or temporal records of the activity of the seafloor features are available. We have selected the

138 bivariate statistical index (Wi) method proposed by Van Westen (1997), based on the weighting of each

139 class of the map of factors as a function of the density of the seafloor features (submarine landslides or

140 crater-like depressions). This density is measured by means of the Wi index as the ratio between the area

141 affected by the seafloor features over the classes of the maps of factors, and the proportion of the total of

142 seafloor features in the study area (see Equation 1). The proposed statistical index method was developed

143 under a GIS environment. The presented methodology does not establish a priori assumptions or

144 causalities between factors and seafloor features. Only after the statistical analysis and the calculation of

145 the Wi index do we establish the link between factors and features and the degree of correlation among

146 them.

147 Weight calculus

148 In this method, a weight value for a parameter class is defined as the natural logarithm of the

149 density of seafloor features related to seabed fluid flow in each class, divided by the density of the same

150 seafloor features in the entire map (study area). Weight is the value assigned to each class of a ―factor

151 map‖ according to the number (―density‖) of seafloor features related to seabed fluid flow identified (in Comment [A2]: Is it OK with you to substitute
―factor map‖ instead of ―map of factor‖? It seems
152 our case, crater-like depressions and submarine landslides). Weights are calculated by comparing the area easier to understand for English readers that way, but
make sure this is not changing anything you said
about the science.
153 affected by crater-like depressions or submarine landslides in each class of the factor map with the total
ok:
154 study area (Van Westen 1997): ―factor map‖

5
  AreaSi  
 DensityClass   Area  Ni  
155 Wi  Ln    Ln   [Equation 1]
 DensityMap    AreaSi  

  AreaNi 
156 where Wi is the weight assigned to a class, Area(Si) is the area affected by crater-like depressions or

157 submarine landslides in a class, and Area(Ni) is the total area of a class on the factor map.

158 The Wi method is based on statistical correlation of each inventory map with the attributes of

159 each factor map. In this study, each factor map was crossed with the inventory maps, and the density of

160 seafloor features in each class was calculated. Correlation results were stored in resultant rasters (maps of

161 weights) and the density of seafloor features per parameter class was calculated. Then the Wi value of

162 each attribute was calculated (Figs. 3, 7 and Table 1). A high Wi value means a high correlation, or

163 dependence, between the class and the seafloor feature, so there are many features inside this class. A

164 positive Wi value means that the density of seafloor features in the class is higher than the density of

165 seafloor features in the study area. A negative Wi value means that the density of seafloor features in the

166 class is lower than the density of seafloor features in the study area.

167 Susceptibility assessment is analyzed separately, following four steps (Fig. 3): (1) mapping of

168 seafloor crater-like depressions and submarine landslides from MBES data, high-resolution shallow

169 seismic (Sparker) profiles and very high resolution (VHR) chirp data (topographic parametric sonar,

170 TOPAS), and preparation of an inventory map; (2) analysis of intrinsic and derived factors that might

171 play a role in the generation of the seafloor features in a gas-venting area; (3) weight calculation of every

172 class of factor maps as a function of the density of seafloor features; and (4) susceptibility assessment.

173
174 4. RESULTS

175 4.1. INVENTORY MAPS OF SEAFLOOR FEATURES RELATED TO SEABED FLUID

176 FLOW

177 VHR chirp (TOPAS), Sparker, and MBES data were used for seafloor geomorphic

178 characterization and mapping. Multichannel seismic lines were used for characterization and correlation

179 of seafloor structures to seabed fluid flow, especially in the case of fault systems and seismic chimneys

180 that act as fluid pathways linking buried diapirs to the seafloor (Fernández-Puga et al. 2007; Medialdea et

181 al. 2009, León et al. 2010).

6
182 The inventory map of submarine landslides (Fig. 4a) was generated by including typologies of

183 gravitational instabilities such as slides and slumps (Mulder and Cochonat 1996; Lee et al. 2002). On this

184 map, we identified ―zones of seafloor affected by instability processes‖ as polygons bounded between the

185 submarine landslide scars and the transported deposits, which implies that both erosive and depositional

186 processes affect these areas. All identified features related to gravitational instabilities, whether buried or

187 not, were mapped without taking into account the time span between successive events. Thus, the return

188 period for such features was not calculated.

189 Submarine landslides are common around the CDS, near the western base of the slope of the

190 Guadalquivir and Cadiz Diapiric Ridges. This area has a smooth slope (0.2º–1.5º) and is formed by a

191 sequence of silty sands and sandy silts (Habgood et al. 2003; Hernández-Molina et al. 2003). Submarine

192 landslides occurring on the slopes (3º–15º) of crater-like depressions, from 530 to 1020 m water depth,

193 range from 1.5 to 4 km in length and from 400 m to 1 km in width. Generally, landslide surfaces are

194 composed of a hummocky relief, the sediment thickness of the deposit is around 70 m, and the slip plane

195 is smooth (<1º) and sub-parallel to the seafloor. Internally patches of transparent acoustic facies with

196 irregular blocks bounded by listric faults are observed (Fig. 8 of Leon et al. 2009), all of them

197 representing echo type IV-1 of Lee et al. (2002). In this area, submarine landslides are translational, with

198 lobate scars and retrogressive headwalls. In initial stages or on headwalls, rotational blocks can be

199 observed (Fig. 4e).

200 Outside the CDS, the submarine landslides take place on the steep (10º–20º) slopes of the

201 Guadalquivir Bank, where they are different from those in the rest of the study area. They are

202 discontinuous allochthonous masses of 30 m maximum thickness with transparent seismic facies below a

203 continuous, high-amplitude reflector (Fig. 4b, d). Swath bathymetry shows retrogressive scars and a

204 hummocky relief over the mobilized sediment. In seismic profiles, they show on the seafloor a continuous

205 reflection of high amplitude over transparent acoustic facies (Fig. 4d), with locally hyperbolic reflexions

206 (Fig. 8 of Leon et al. 2009).

207 The inventory map of crater-like depressions (Fig. 5a) includes all negative relief related to fluid

208 flow, such as pockmarks and seabed collapses. These features were previously outlined on MBES maps

209 and then correlated with sub-seafloor acoustic anomalies observed in seismic data (Fig. 5b). All the

210 features identified were mapped regardless of their age or degree of activity. Crater-like depressions occur

211 throughout the study area from 850 to 1450 m water depth. From around 800 m water depth

7
212 (approximately the upper limit of the theoretical gas hydrate stability zone [GHSZ] for gases of biogenic

213 origin), pockmarks tend to be regularly spaced, smaller-sized, and more homogeneous in size. They are

214 typically cone-shaped (slopes of 15º–25º) and sizes vary widely, from 150 to 950 m in diameter and from

215 20 to 60 m in depth. Shapes vary from isolated, sub-circular forms to complex forms. Collapses are U-

216 shaped depressions delimited by normal faults with chaotic and blanking acoustic facies. They vary from

217 500 m to 5 km in diameter and from 20 to 248 m in depth. Shapes range from sub-circular forms to

218 elongated complex forms. Collapses are connected to diapiric structures via focused seismic chimneys.

219 Locally, huge, elongated (ca. 10 km long) collapsed depressions (dead-end valleys) related to other fluid-

220 flow structures such as pockmarks, carbonate-mud mounds and mud volcanoes have been mapped. (León

221 et al. 2010).

222
223
224 4.2. CONTROLLING FACTORS OF SEAFLOOR FEATURES RELATED TO SEABED

225 FLUID FLOW

226 The factors chosen determine the susceptibility of an area to be disrupted by crater-like

227 depressions and/or submarine landslides caused by seabed fluid flow in the Gulf of Cadiz. We selected

228 geological features or properties that determine the capability of the seabed to store and transfer fluids to

229 the seafloor. The factors were analyzed within two categories: intrinsic and derived factors. Intrinsic

230 factors are measured properties of seafloor sediment or features directly interpreted from data, such as

231 geology-lithology, occurrence of buried salt/shale diapirs, proximity to faults, and slope angle of the

232 seafloor. Derived factors are theoretical features (calculations) deduced from a numerical model with

233 measured properties. To group the derived factors we used the theoretical thickness of the GHSZ beneath

234 the seafloor because it results from the analysis of other factors such as water temperature and pressure

235 (depth) and the rate of temperature rise with depth within the seabed sediments (geothermal gradient).

236
237 Geology-Lithology

238 Fluid dynamics and storage typology inside the sediment are controlled by geology and

239 lithology, and depend on sedimentary and tectonic structures, unconformities, granulometry,

240 permeability, porosity, and thickness of the deposit. The map of factor ―geology-lithology‖ contains four

241 classes (Fig. 6a): basement, CDS, outcropped salt/shale diapirs, and lower slope.

8
242
243 Occurrence of buried diapirs

244 Buried diapirs are areas of potential accumulation of shallow gas, and usually build traps for

245 hydrocarbon fluids expelled from the AUGC. Medium- and deep-penetration seismic profiles indicate

246 methane-related seafloor morphological features that are closely associated with deeper diapiric

247 structures. Fernández-Puga (2004) mapped approximately 20 elongated diapiric structures (Fig. 6b) (4–86

248 km long) throughout the middle continental slope of the Gulf of Cádiz at water depths of 300 to 1100 m.

249 Diapirs are related to extensional tectonics (listric fault movement) or compressional tectonics (thrusts).

250 The uplift process deforms the Pliocene-Quaternary sedimentary units and the middle continental slope

251 seafloor. Over buried diapirs, we can observe a great variety of seafloor features related to methane

252 expulsion, such as mud volcanoes, crater-like depressions, submarine landslides, and carbonate mounds.

253 Under these seafloor features and at the top of all types of buried diapirs and dome structures, chaotic and

254 transparent seismic facies and other acoustic anomalies suggest that gas-bearing sediments and upward

255 gas migration through fault structures are related to diapir evolution (Fig. 5b). The map of factor

256 ―occurrence of buried diapirs‖ contains only two classes (Fig. 6b): presence or absence (no diapirs).

257
258 Proximity to faults or lineaments

259 A map of linear features was constructed based on the MBES data. When these seafloor linear

260 features were also identified on seismic profiles they were labelled as ―faults‖, and otherwise as

261 ―lineaments‖. The map of factor ―proximity to fault or lineament‖ is a polygonal map built around each

262 fault and lineament with a specified distance of influence. We selected 1500 m for the distance of

263 influence because this is the mean value size of the geological structures related to fluid flow identified in

264 the Gulf of Cádiz. Finally, we selected only two classes in the map of factor ―proximity to fault or

265 lineament‖: inside and outside the area of influence (Fig. 6c).

266

267 Slope angle of the seafloor

268 Slope angle is very frequently used in landslide susceptibility studies. It is a factor describing

269 geometrical predisposition to gravitational instabilities of the pile of sediments. Submarine landslides

270 mostly occur at a certain critical slope angle. Once the lateral component of the weight of sediment

271 overcomes its internal friction and cohesion, sediment tends to move down-slope (Ayala et al. 1987). The

9
272 slope map of the seafloor (Fig. 6d) represents areas of equal inclination and stores the value, in degrees,

273 between the seafloor and horizontal. The factor map of slope was segmented into 6 classes, the interval of

274 each class being 1 degree. This 1º interval was used in other statistical works in the eastern North Atlantic

275 (Hühnerbach and Masson 2004).

276
277 Theoretical thickness of the hydrate stability field

278 We established the theoretical thickness of the hydrate stability field as a factor due to the direct

279 and indirect evidences of hydrates in the Gulf of Cadiz. We used the theoretical thickness of the hydrate

280 stability field calculated by Leon et al. (2009) from both biogenic and thermogenic gases. We divided the

281 map of factor ―GHSZ thickness‖ into three categories (Figs. 6e, f), the first two being: (1) seafloor outside

282 the hydrate stability field and (2) seafloor inside the hydrate stability field. However, the occurrence of

283 warm water masses flowing episodically over the seafloor (as in the case of the Gulf of Cadiz) requires an

284 additional category to be introduced on the map: (3) seafloor inside the hydrate stability field with

285 reduced GHSZ due to warming of the MOW undercurrent.

286
287 4.3. MAPS OF SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT

288 The final susceptibility maps were obtained by adding all weighted layers (Figs. 7, 8). Each pixel

289 value of the final susceptibility map is the algebraic addition of pixel values (with the same geographic

290 location) of each map of weights. The final susceptibility maps were segmented into five equal intervals

291 according to the total number of elements: very low susceptibility, low susceptibility, moderate

292 susceptibility, high susceptibility, and very high susceptibility.

293 Seafloor susceptibility to crater-like depressions (SP) (Fig. 8a) is the sum of six maps of weights

for crater-like depressions corresponding to: map of geology-lithology (  Lt ) + map of hydrate thickness
P
294

(biogenic origin) (  Hb ) + map of hydrate thickness (thermogenic origin) (  Ht ) + map of slope angle of
P P
295

296 the seafloor (  Sp

P
) + map of lineaments and faults (  FP ) + map of diapirs (  DP ):

297 S P   LtP   Hb
P
  HtP   SpP   FP   DP [Equation 2]

298 Values in the map of crater-like depression susceptibility are high inside the theoretical hydrate

299 stability field reduced by warming of the MOW undercurrent, in zones with contourite deposits over

10
300 buried diapirs, and close to faults or lineaments. Therefore, the areas particularly predisposed to

301 generating pockmarks occur in fine-grained sediments, such as the CDS, over buried gas-storing

302 structures (diapirs) connected to pathways of fluid escape (faults) and affected by the MOW undercurrent

303 (the reduced theoretical GHSZ thickness). The Palaeozoic basement shows a very low susceptibility.

304 Similarly, the seafloor susceptibility to submarine landslides (SS) (Fig. 8b) is the sum of the

305 following six maps of weights for submarine landslides:

SS   LtS   Hb
S
  Ht
S
  SpS   FS   DS
306 [Equation 3]

307 Where:
 LtS
308 = map of geology-lithology weighted to submarine landslides
 Hb
S
309 = map of hydrate thickness (biogenic origin) weighted to submarine landslides
 HtS
310 = map of hydrate thickness (thermogenic origin) weighted to submarine landslides
 SpS
311 = map of the slope angle of the seafloor weighted to submarine landslides

312  FS = map of lineaments and faults weighted to submarine landslides

313  DS = map of diapirs weighted to submarine landslides

314
315 Submarine landslide susceptibility maps show two different geologic areas where susceptibility

316 is moderate to high. The first is located over the steep slopes of the Guadalquivir Bank. In this area,

317 susceptibility seems to be related only to the factor of slope angle and geology-lithology, and not to the

318 other factors associated with fluid flow. The second area is located over the smooth relief of the CDS on

319 the western side of the base of the slope of the Guadalquivir and Cadiz Diapiric Ridges, where submarine

320 landslides are related to crater-like depressions. Susceptibility seems to be controlled by buried diapirs,

321 proximity to lineaments, and the theoretical GHSZ thickness reduced by the MOW.

322
323 5. DISCUSSION

324 Comparison of marine vs terrestrial GIS-based bivariate mapping

325 In this paper we present the application to marine environments of the methodology tested on

326 land at scales ranging from 1:25,000 to 1:50,000 (Varnes 1984; Soeters and van Westen 1996; Çevik and

327 Topal 2003). However, the difference of quantity/density and accuracy of data between marine and

328 terrestrial environments requires different work scales for the two environments. The density and

11
329 accuracy of data in the present paper is suitable for mapping at scales between 1:100,000 and 1:200,000,

330 which are used in regional studies as a first step or a baseline in the process of risk assessment. These

331 differences in quantity/density, accuracy, and work scale could be the reason for the different number of

332 variables (map of factors) involved in the susceptibility analysis in the two environments.

333 Advantages of the proposed method are its easy application and the fact that it can be used to

334 calibrate in situ quantitative data or to obtain results at regional scales by extrapolating these data.

335 Another advantage is the possibility of obtaining a numeric value to assess the correlation or dependence

336 of one factor in the generation of a seafloor feature. However, the proposed method has some constraints

337 or limitations. The first is that it is essential to have a reliable understanding of the geologic model of the

338 study area because the selection of factors and assumptions is based on expert criteria. The expert criteria

339 introduce a degree of subjectivity, giving the results an uncertainty that is difficult to measure.

340

341 Other interpretations of the seafloor features and error assessment of the methodology

342 The MOW bottom current flowing through single, crater-like depressions may be enlarged by

343 erosion and linked to others, giving rise to elongated features. The assessment of susceptibility to these Comment [A3]: Does this mean linked to other
depressions?
344 ―modified‖ crater-like depressions is thus subject to a degree of uncertainty because the size of the yes

345 depressions is the result of at least two geological processes: intermittent gas bursts (eruptions) and

346 extended intervening periods of slow, diffusive pore-water seepage (Hovland et al. 2010), during which

347 the predominant process is erosion by bottom undercurrents. The areal density distribution of the crater-

348 like depressions thus induces a small degree of uncertainty when they are related to the intensity of gas-

349 seep activity.

350 Crater-like depressions and submarine landslides have an irregular surface and locally are

351 masked or partially masked by sediment waves (Leon et al. 2010). For this reason, many of these seafloor

352 features have been interpreted as erosive features, sediment forms, or wave fields (Kenyon and Belderson

353 1973; Habgood et al. 2003; García et al. 2009). Swath bathymetry, VHR Chirp, and multichannel seismic

354 profiles have given more precise seafloor images and revealed new properties of seafloor morphology,

355 showing that crater-like depressions and submarine landslides have a link with the fluid flow coming

356 from diapirs.

357 It is very difficult to obtain a numeric value of the error or uncertainty of the present approach. In

358 our opinion, this is beyond the scope of this paper. The calculation of error would take into account the

12
359 error made in the definition of each variable and factor. This is possible in the calculation of the

360 oceanographic variables (Leon el at. 2009). However, the great problem is to assess the error in the

361 mapping of seafloor features, which are interpreted with a high degree of subjectivity by researchers.

362 Furthermore, when we take data from publications (e.g. Fernandez-Puga 2004), it is impossible to

363 perform an error assessment as we do not know how these data were built. Nevertheless, we can obtain an

364 idea of the sensitivity of the estimation of the presented method from the Wi index. The estimation will be

365 more sensitive to the spatial location of factors with a high Wi and the uncertainty of hypotheses deduced

366 from the factors with a high Wi value will be low.

367

368 Submarine landslides: triggers and role of the slope angle of the seafloor.

369 Throughout the study area, only where the basement is outcropping (the Guadalquivir Bank) do

370 the submarine landslides show high sensitivity to the slope angle of the seafloor factor. This fact indicates

371 that the slope angle of the seafloor and earthquakes is the main trigger, as suggested by Mulder et al. Comment [A4]: Slope angle IS.....

372 (2009). This contradicts Canals et al. (2004) and Hühnerback & Masson (2004), but the submarine

373 landslides in the Guadalquivir Bank are very different in lithology (basement) and size (20,000 times

374 smaller) than those mentioned by their studies. Comment [A5]: Is this part I added correct?
yes

375 The submarine landslides in the CDS area are different and involve mainly contourite deposits

376 where diapirism and fluid seepage take place. In this area, other trigger mechanisms are suggested, such

377 as: (1) high sedimentation rates leading to excess pore pressure (overpressurized layers) and

378 underconsolidation (weak layers); (2) fluid seepage and bubble-phase gas charging; (3) diapirism and

379 faulting; (4) incision of the MOW undercurrent; and (5) dissociation of gas hydrates.

380 The CDS thickness of up to 600 m and rates of accumulation of 14.5 cm ky-1 (Stow et al. 2002)

381 will tend to increase the excess pore pressure. In turn, the effective strength of sediments barely increases

382 with sediment burial, thus being lower than expected. The clayey units of the contourite units that were

383 deposited during interglacials and transitions play a role in the development of mechanical discontinuities

384 and weak layers, having great potential to behave as slip planes. Furthermore, fluid venting indicates

385 overpressure and that the area could be prone to failure. Therefore, in the CDS we could postulate that

386 slope and potential slip-plane angles are not the main requirement for submarine landslide events.

387 In fact, submarine landslides occur on slopes of less than 16º, the static condition defined by Lee and

388 Baraza (1999). On the basis of our statistical analysis, the only reason for justifying the different main

13
389 requirements for submarine landslide events between the CDS and the Guadalquivir Bank lies in the

390 lithology-geology factor and the great difference in the cohesion of the sediments.

391

392 Dependence of seafloor features and factors: Role of fluid flow

393 Wi values show a clear dependence on buried diapirs, faults, and theoretical GHSZ thickness.

394 The majority of pockmarks and collapses occur in the theoretical GHSZ thickness reduced by the MOW,

395 associated with buried diapirs (not in outcropped diapirs), over the CDS, and near faults. Most of them

396 are covered by HDACs (Díaz-del-Río et al. 2003), clearly indicating a relationship of the fluid flow from

397 diapirs through fine-grained sediments. The high susceptibility to crater-like depressions matches with the

398 factors ―occurrence of diapirs‖ and ―proximity to fault or lineaments‖, in agreement with the previous

399 geological models proposed in the Gulf of Cadiz (Fernández-Puga et al. 2007; Medialdea et al. 2009;

400 León et al. 2010).

401 Gas hydrates and their dissociation have often been associated with slope instability (Hampton et

402 al. 1996). Natural gas and hydrates have been identified in the Gulf of Cádiz (Ivanov et al. 2000;

403 Mazurenko et al. 2003) but hydrates have only been recovered over mud volcanoes with both a disperse

404 (e.g. Ginsburg mud volcano; Ivanov et al. 2000) and a laminar texture (e.g. Bojardim mud volcano;

405 Mazurenko et al. 2003; Kopf et al. 2004). Furthermore, no hydrates have been detected in any other

406 geological features such as pockmarks or collapses. The lack of gas or hydrate evidence on crater-like

407 depressions could also be related to a problem of density of data (few samples). HDACs recovered in

408 crater-like depressions show an isotopic composition (depletion in δ13C and enrichment in δ18O)

409 compatible with possible undated massive gas hydrate dissociation (Díaz-del-Río et al. 2003). However,

410 the dependence between seafloor features and reduced GHSZ thickness for biogenic gases (the only class

411 with positive Wi values in this factor map) point to a possible former relationship between seafloor

412 features and hydrate dissociation.

413 Global sea-level changes and the subsequent episodic warming by the MOW undercurrents

414 could be considered the most plausible scenarios for a massive hydrate dissociation in the Gulf of Cádiz

415 (León et al. 2010). Potential consequences of these dissociations would be: (a) a release of water and gas,

416 (b) a rapid reduction in sediment strength, and (c) an increase in pore fluid pressure. All these

417 consequences may act as triggering factors for the development of crater-like depressions and submarine

418 landslides in these areas. Thus, changes in seawater temperature due to the ―periodic‖ influence of

14
419 different ocean bottom waters, as in the Gulf of Mexico and the South American Atlantic margin

420 (MacDonald et al. 1994), may produce natural dissociation of gas hydrates exposed on the seabed.

421

422 6. CONCLUSIONS

423 In the Gulf of Cadiz we have successfully applied a GIS-based method for assessing seafloor

424 failure susceptibility in fluid leakage areas. The method has been previously used onshore, but in this

425 study it was used for the first time for offshore deepwater. The susceptibility assessment defines the

426 likelihood of occurrence of a geological process such as seabed collapse, fluid escape, and submarine

427 landslides. The proposed method is an advantageous tool for mapping geohazards in regional studies as a

428 first approach in geological risk assessment.

429 The factors used to determine the susceptibility to marine geohazards in a fluid leakage area can

430 be grouped into two categories: (1) intrinsic factors, which are measured properties of the sediment or

431 features directly interpreted from data that have played a role in the generation of the seafloor features

432 related to seabed fluid flow (geology-lithology, occurrence of buried salt/shale diapirs, proximity to

433 faults, and slope angle of the seafloor); and (2) derived factors, which are theoretical features deduced

434 from a numerical model with measured properties (theoretical thickness of the GHSZ).

435 Susceptibility to crater-like depressions is high inside the theoretical GHSZ reduced by warming

436 of the MOW undercurrent, in contourite sediments over salt/shale domes or buried diapiric ridges, and in

437 the vicinity of faults or lineaments. Therefore, the areas particularly predisposed to generating pockmarks

438 appear in fine-grained sediments affected by the warm MOW undercurrent (CDS), over buried gas-

439 storing structures (diapirs) connected to pathways of fluid escape (faults).

440 Submarine landslide susceptibility maps show two different geologic areas where susceptibility

441 is moderate to high. The first is located on the steep slopes of the Guadalquivir Bank, where susceptibility

442 seems to be controlled by the angle of the slope and is probably not related to fluid flow. The second is

443 located on the smooth relief of the CDS on the western side of the base of the slope of the Guadalquivir

444 and Cadiz Diapiric Ridges. Here, submarine landslide susceptibility is correlated with the same factors as

445 crater-like depressions, and a slope angle of the seafloor is not the main requirement for submarine

446 landslide events to occur.

447

15
448 7. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

449 We are grateful to all participants in the Tasyo and Anastasya research cruises: the captains,
450 technicians and crews of R/V Cornide de Saavedra and R/V Hespérides. Special thanks are due to the
451 projects Cadisar (UMR CNRS 5805, France), Gap (Germany) and Golfo (SMAR99-0643T, Spain) for
452 contributing oceanographic data to this study. We are especially grateful to Michael Ivanov and Luis
453 Pinheiro for their helpful co-operation within the framework of the TTR IOC/UNESCO Programme.
454 Thanks are extended to REPSOL-YPF for their helpful collaboration. This work is currently supported by
455 the Spanish Department for Research and Innovation (MICINN) projects CONTOURIBER (CTM 2008-
456 06399-C04/MAR and GLOBANT (CTM 2008-06386-C02/ANT). It is also a contribution to the
457 European Action COST ES0902 ―Permafrost and gas hydrate related methane release in the Arctic and
458 impact on climate change: European cooperation for long-term monitoring (PERGAMON)‖.
459
460

16
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694 FIGURE CAPTIONS

695 Fig. 1. Geological and oceanographic setting of the Gulf of Cadiz, modified from Medialdea et al. (2009)

696 and data incorporated in the present paper on the bathymetry SWIM compilation of Zitellini et al.

697 (2009). Dotted line, Tasyo field; MOW, Mediterranean Outflow Water; NASW, North Atlantic

698 Surface Water; NADW, North Atlantic Deep Water; NACW, North Atlantic Central Water;

699 AUGC, Allochthonous Unit of the Gulf of Cádiz; 1, limit of the AUGC; 2, mud volcanoes.

700 Fig. 2. Datasets used in this paper. Bathymetry compilation from GEBCO (2003) and IGME (2003),

701 Serviços Geológicos de Portugal (1992) and MBES data from Tasyo 2000 cruise. 1. Multichannel

702 reflection profiles; 2. Sparker profiles; 3. TOPAS; 4. heat flow probe data; 5. CTD and XBT data;

703 6. hydrocarbon gas composition.

704 Fig. 3. Flow diagram of work processes for the calculation of susceptibility in the proposed marine

705 model. a. Analysis of intrinsic and derived factors that might play a role in the generation of

706 seafloor features related to seabed fluid flow. b. Preparation of the inventory maps, mapping of

707 seafloor crater-like depressions and submarine landslides from MBES data, high-resolution

708 shallow seismic and a VHR Chirp. c. Weight calculation of every class of factor maps as a

709 function of the density of seafloor features. d. Susceptibility assessment.

710 Fig. 4. Inventory map of submarine landslides. a. Sparker seismic profile, Line 1 of the Anastasya-00

711 cruise, showing the different typology of submarine landslides between the Guadalquivir Bank and

712 the CDS. b. TOPAS seismic profile, Line 22 of the Tasyo 2000 cruise, showing retrogressive

713 rotational blocks on the headwall of a submarine landslide developed in the flank of a crater-like

714 depression of the CDS.

715 Fig. 5. a. Inventory map of crater-like depressions. b. Multichannel seismic profile of the Tasyo 2000

716 cruise, showing the link between crater-like depressions and diapirs. The different typologies of

717 crater-like depressions (pockmarks, collapses and dead-end valleys) and seismic evidence of fluid

718 flow can be observed in the seismic profile, modified from Léon et al. (2010).

719 Fig. 6. Factors taken into account in the susceptibility assessment. a. Geology-lithology map. b.

720 Occurrence of diapirs, simplified from Fernández-Puga (2004), diapirs in colour. c. Proximity to

22
721 faults or lineaments, influence area of faults in colour. d. Slopes. e. Theoretical thickness of

722 hydrate stability field from biogenic gases. f. Theoretical thickness of hydrate stability field from

723 thermogenic gases.

724 Fig. 7. Chart showing the results of the weight calculation of each class of the factor maps. Right side

725 shows the weights of the maps of factors calculated from the density of submarine landslides and

726 crater-like depressions (collapses and pockmarks) within individual classes. Left side represents

727 the area of each class vs. the area of crater-like depressions and submarine landslides. For GHSZ

728 thickness factor: In, inside; Out, outside; Dcr, decreased thickness of the GHSZ.

729
730 Fig. 8. Seafloor susceptibility maps. a. Susceptibility to crater-like depressions. b. Susceptibility to

731 submarine landslides), segmented by quantiles in five categories: very high, high, medium, low,

732 and very low.

733

734 Table 1. Parameters taken into account and values of the Wi resulting from the weight calculation of each

735 class of the maps of factor. Upper part shows the global parameters of the study area: total area

736 (value to change instead of  Area(Ni ) in Equation 1); area with crater-like depressions (instead
737 of  Area(Si) in Equation 1 in the crater-like depressions analysis); and area with submarine

738 landslides (instead of  Area(Si) in Equation 1 in the submarine landslide analysis). Lower part

739 shows the parameters of each class of the map of factor: area of the class (value to change instead

740 of Area(Ni) in Equation 1); area with crater-like depressions (instead of Area(Ni) in Equation 1

741 in the crater-like depression analysis); area with submarine landslides (instead of Area(Ni) in

742 Equation 1 in the submarine landslide analysis). Values in m2.

743

744

23
Figure 1
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Figure 2
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Figure 3
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Figure 4
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Figure 5
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Figure 6
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Figure 7
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Figure 8
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table 1
Click here to download table: Table_1.pdf

Study Area Total area Area with Area

crater like depresions with submarine landslides
17141318483 505360114.2 169219544.4

WEIGHT: "Wi" value

Factor Class Area Area with Area with Crater Submarine
of the class crater like depressions submarine landslides like depresions landslides
GHSZ
Biogenic No Hydrate 7377455766 151067281.4 67815451.15 -0.36448296 -0.071343886
GHSZ Thinned 5998967570 338242944.1 98961094.33 0.648397586 0.513434287
GHSZ 3764978535 11984746.93 2026413.328 -2.225886846 -2.90917988
GHSZ
Thermogenic No Hydrate 11928798111 2850665.664 0 -4.815182391 inf
GHSZ Thinned 1290886611 484856925.6 166762399.1 2.544745133 2.571535646
GHSZ 3921633799 13597464.09 2026413.328 -2.140404479 -2.949946072
BURIED
DIAPIRS Outside 15461733283 270361884.3 127898716.3 -0.522386215 -0.176834595
Inside 1679585200 230901152.1 40827024.48 1.53966341 0.901092252
LINEAMENTS
Outside 14806336849 219337593.8 88726352.22 -0.688222626 -0.499203432
Inside 2334981637 282025795.1 80064638.08 1.410215079 1.245125141
SLOPES
0-1 10832135082 361926645.9 68872364.03 0.125144936 -0.439967293
1-2 5097749133 130507512.3 71709465.49 -0.141147738 0.354118557
2-3 1001800069 8639835.679 8333849.236 -1.22919432 -0.171178109
3-4 215799531 127550.6467 3329800.104 -3.909615798 0.446612572
4-5 68070280 0 12044530.2 inf 2.886120115
5-6 28028939 0 3427868.915 inf 2.516751424
6-7 4004134 0 0 inf inf
>7 12012402 0 1107015.506 inf 2.233778239
GEOLOGY
LITHOLOGY Basement 99778710.02 0 5927695.247 inf 1.794730822
CDS 13738822653 487960150.8 154002854.4 0.186228716 0.127040441
Diapir 318686314.7 11992450.26 7375117.169 0.244045873 0.851954688
Lower slope 2984030568 1292919.203 1726817.891 -4.220151749 -2.836699681

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