Statistics 1

Unit 1.1 – Conditional Probability and Expectation

1.1.1 appreciate the existence of dependent events

1.1.2 calculate conditional probability
1.1.3 solve problems using conditional probability
1.1.4 solve Bayes’ theorem problems [A/B]

1.1.5 apply the laws of expectation and variance – makes sense to leave until 1.2

For an event
The complement of A is is also written
For example, if

Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Events

The following Venn diagram illustrates when two events are mutually exclusive – one event excludes the
chances of the other occurring. There are three possibilities in this range space

- A occurs and B does not,

- B occurs and A does not,
- Neither A nor B occurs.

Here, the events A and B are also dependent. I.e. the probability of one event happening effects the
probability of the other event happening – if A happens, B cannot occur (and vice-versa).

Thus,
Also,

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

In events which aren't mutually exclusive, there is some overlap.

Clearly if we wish to calculate the probability of A or B occurring, there are three ways this can happen:

1. A
2. B A B
3. A and B

When P(A) and P(B) are added, the probability of the intersection (AandB) is added twice. To compensate
for that double addition, the intersection needs to be subtracted as follows:
Independence and Conditional Probability

A and B are independent

In some questions, you may be told this. In other questions you may have to check this for yourself.

The conditional probability of A given B is

Thus when A and B are independent

Questions on this have been common over many years, and can be done using a tree-diagram.

Example Machine A produces 75% of a factory's output and machine B produces the remainder. 3% of
A's output is defective and 1% of B's output is defective.
A component is selected at random and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
came from machine A?

N-D
D

N-D

And so

Be prepared to do "common-sense" calculations, such as:

Example

Three people are selected at random. What is the probability that they were born on the same week-day?

Consider, say, Monday births.

Then for the first of the people,

Then, since it is reasonable to assume independence here,

Since there are 7 equally likely days, the required probability is

Another argument here is that the first person has a day of birth.
The probability that the other 2 people share the same day is

Questions:

1. A bag contains 20 marbles. 12 – red and 8 – yellow. You choose one without replacement. Following
this you choose another marble. Let E =’first marble is yellow’, and F =’second marble is yellow’.
Find:
a) b) c)

2. There are two bags, each with 10 yellow and 10 red marbles. One marble is chosen from the 1 st bag
and then placed in the second bag. You then choose a marble from the second bag. Let F =’first
marble is yellow’, and S =’second marble is yellow’. Find:
a) b) c)

3. Results of a survey are given below:

Non- Moderate Heavy Total
drinker drinker drinker
Female Students 15 128 26 169
Male Students 2 32 18 52
Total 17 160 44 221

A student is picked at random. Find the probability that:

a) The student is female
b) The student is a non-drinker
c) The student is a heavy drinker
d) The student is a non-drinker given that the student is female
e) The student is a heavy drinker given that the student is female
f) The student is female given that the student is a non-drinker
g) The student is female given that the student is a heavy drinker

4. A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until it lands Heads up. Assuming independence (obvious!), find the
probability that the coin lands Heads up after:
a) one toss b) two tosses

5. An aircraft has two engines, with an independent probability of failing of 0.01 during a flight. Find
the probability that:
a) Both engines fail during the same flight
b) Neither engines fails during the same flight
c) Exactly one engine fails during the same flight

6. An insurance adjuster has to get approval from her section head (SH) and then from the manager (M)
before settling a claim. She believes her SH approves 80% of her proposals and their M will
subsequently approve 90% of her proposals approved by her SH. What proportion of her proposals is
approved by both of them?

7. Suppose that E and F are events in a sample space, such that P(E) = 0.6 and P(F) = 0.3. Use the
general addition rule to find P(E or F) when:
 a) E and F are disjoint
b) E and F are independent
c) P(E|F) = 0.8

8. 3 friends playing table tennis. In a singles game, Ian has probability of beating Stewart and
probability of beating Wayne. Stewart has probability of beating Wayne. (You cannae draw in table
tennis). On this day, Ian will play Stewart in the first match, and the winner will play Wayne. Find the
probability that

a) Ian wins both of these games

b) Stewart wins both of these games

9. Sweet peas of a certain kind have either purple or red flowers. The colour is determined by a
particular gene which has two forms C and c. Every plant has two of these genes, so plants may have
genotype CC, Cc or cc. Only plants with genotype cc have red flowers. An offspring obtains one of
its genes from each parent and the genes inherited from the two parents are determined
independently. A parent plant is equally likely to donate each of its genes to an offspring. (So for
example, a Cc parent is equally likely to donate a C or a c gene to one of its offspring.) For every
possible combination of parental genotypes, find the probability that an offspring has red flowers.

10. Throw a dice. If you score a 6, you get to roll again (woo hoo). Your score is the total score from all
your rolls. Find:
a) P(5)
b) P(6)
c) P(more than or equal to 7)
d) P(10)
e) P(more than or equal to 13)

11. E and F are disjoint, with P(E) > 0 and P(F) > 0. Show that E and F can not also be independent.

12. A tutorial group has ten members. 8 always attend, 2 sometimes miss. Student X attends 80%, while
Y attends 60%. Assume the probability of X and Y attending or not is independent:
a) Find the probability that the next tutorial will be attended by
i. Ten students
ii. Eight students
b) Hence find the probability that the tutorial is attended by nine students

13. A study was carried out to improve teenagers’ ability to manage their own asthma. The study
depended on recruiting 4 students per week. Each Sunday night, 4 teenagers – who expressed interest
– were reminded to attend next week. It is thought, following this reminder, the probability that a
student misses this appointment is .
a) Write out all the possibilities for the four teenagers
b) Assuming independence of action, write down the probability of each possible outcome in the
sample space.
c) If X is the number who miss in a particular week, find the probability that X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
Bayes Theorem:

Bayes theorem kicks in when we wish to ask a conditional probability which equivalent to reversing
conditional probabilities. It is not necessary, to remember the Bayes formula. Using a tree diagram with
your knowledge of conditional probability and a little bit of common sense is the easiest way to solve these
problems.

1. The proportion of boys and girls who suffer from red-green colour blindness are 0.05 and 0.0025
respectively. 52% of all children in the UK are boys.
a) Draw a tree diagram with appropriate unconditional and conditional probabilities.
b) What proportion of children suffer from red-green colour blindness?
c) What proportion of colour blindness children are girls?

2. Defective machinery in a factory means that just 1% of items produced on lines A & B are defective,
but 4% on line C is defective. If lines A,B and C produce 40%, 30% and 30% (respectively) of the
total factory output, find:
a) The proportion of all items manufactured that are defective.
b) The proportion of all the defective items that are produced on line C.

3. Computer support is given to customers. 10% of customer have ‘excellent’ computer skills, 65% have
‘adequate’ skills and 25% have ‘inadequate’ skills. In a given year, he is called to the homes of 20%
with ‘excellent’ skills, 30% of those with ‘adequate’ skills and 50% of those with ‘inadequate’ skills.
a) What proportion of customers require support in a year?
b) What proportion of customers whose homes he visit fall into each of the three categories of
computing skills?

4. Eric has reached the final of his Tennis Club Championship. In the final, he will play Peter, the
reigning champ. The final will be won by the first to win 2 sets. Based on his experience, Eric or their
many previous matches, Eric estimates that he has probability 0.4 of winning the first set. If he wins
the first set, he believes he has a probability of 0.7 of winning any subsequent set. If he loses the first
set, he estimates a 0.9 probability of winning any subsequent set.
a) Find the probability that the final is decided by playing just two sets.
b) Hence find the probability that the final is decided in three sets.
c) Given that the final is decided in two sets, find the probability that Eric wins.

5. In a factory, quality inspectors rate each item as first, second or reject. Two inspectors rate each item,
and records suggest that they each rate 60%, 30% and 10% of all items (respectively) into these three
categories. The final quality rating of an item is the poorer of the two ratings it receives from the
inspectors.
a) Assuming that ratings are given independently, what proportion of items are rated first, second
and reject?
b) Given that an item is finally rated as reject, what is the probability that it was rated reject by both
inspectors?
c) How valid would you expect the assumption of independence to be in this context?

Past Paper Questions:

2012 A1
2011 A1
2010 A2
2009 A8