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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for estimate

economic valuation for flood risk in DKI Jakarta Province

F Marpaung1*, D Fernando2, N Setyaningrum3, S Lestari4, R Sulistyowati2 and G

P Dinanta3
1
Laboratory of Indonesia Weather Modification, Directorate of Laboratory
Management, Research Facilities, and Science and Technology Park, National
Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Central Jakarta, 10340, Indonesia
2
Research Center for Geospatial, Research Organization for Earth Sciences and
Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bogor, 16911,
Indonesia,
3
Research Center for Remote Sensing, Research Organization for Aeronautics and
Space, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), East Jakarta, 13710,
Indonesia
4
Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Research Organization for Earth
Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN),
Bandung, 40173, Indonesia

*Email: fiol001@brin.go.id

Abstract. A 4-day-flood occurred in Jakarta Province, Indonesia at the end of 2019 caused
severe moral and material losses and weakened the economy. Various flood risk management
methods are available to mitigate this damage. Assessing flood risks is thus an essential task for
disaster management activities. An accurate flood risk map is required to be developed. In this
research, we developed an economic valuation of flood risk that combines a quick flood map
with the consequences of flooding using the Multi – Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in the
DKI Jakarta area. A quick identification of flood zones was carried out using SAR (Synthetic
Aperture Radar). We estimated that about 54.10 km2 area was flooded area with a total economic
loss about 1.406 trillion rupiahs. The sector of construction (10.10%), manufacturing (11.51%),
wholesale, rental trade and repair of vehicles (13,90%), business activities (6.77%), financial &
insurance (7.33%), and information & communication (7.6%) are major affected sectors that
contributes 56.86% of the total economic loss from the market value. 20.49%-other service
activities implicitly underestimate the value of environmental services and human productivities.
To understand this, a detailed analysis of non-market value is needed in understanding the actual
total economic loss.

1. Introduction
Floods are among the most devastating disasters. It is affecting people's lives, damaging properties, and
can also take its toll [1–5]. Flooding significantly affects the socioeconomic conditions of a country [6–
8]; deforestation or a shift in land use has led to severe flooding [9]. In addition, human migration and
the impacts of climate change are increasing flooding in coastal and lowland areas. [10].

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

Today, flood risk assessment and management are widely accessed using several methods, such as
the Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. The MCDA method has been widely used to
combine, integrate, and evaluate factors related to flood risk. The MCDA combines flood susceptibility,
health and financial impact into a flood map risk of Vietnam (Pham et al. [11]). Ozturk and Cough [12]
have implemented a popular MCDA method, namely Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify
deluge vulnerabilities in Turkey. Kappes et al. [13] provided a framework based on indicators to evaluate
susceptibility to natural hazards through the MCDA approach. Meanwhile, the potential consequences
of flood risk to humans and environment (Jato-Espino et al. [14]) are also important for flood risk
assessment. Analysis using MCDA can be used for deciding or determining policies, by taking into
account the value of a good or service produced in market value or non-market value. The assessment
is based on the perception of a person or a certain group towards an object of time and space. The
perception is originally a subjective that would become an objective if it involves many people or even
everyone in a community [15]. Principle economic valuation aims to provide economic value from the
point of view of society. The goal is to be able to place the environment as an integral component of any
economic system. In addition, the role of economic valuations on the environment is important in
development policies, where environmental damage has the potential to give destruction of space assets
and benefits. So, it is necessary to repair or replace assets [16].
DKI Jakarta province is a capital city of Indonesia. The region is geographically flat and has large
rivers. Jakarta is a tropical province with a mean rainfall amount of around 210 mm/month. There region
has two seasons, the rainy and dry season. The rainy harvest season takes place from December to
February. A high rainfall during the rainy season and a low water catchment area causes a larger runoff,
resulting in this area becoming increasingly vulnerable to flooding in the rainy season. National Agency
of Meteorology, Climatology, Geophysics (BMKG) has reported that over the Jakarta region, on 1 Jan
2020, the intensity of rainfall reached 377 mm/day and it has been the highest since 1866
(https://statistik.jakarta.go.id/rekapitulasi-data-banjir-dki-jakarta-danpenanggulangannya-tahun-2020 ).
This heavy rainfall was likely as one of the prominent factors to increase the chance of flood events over
the region. It caused severe moral and material losses and weakened the economy. For regional planning
and advance flood risk assessment; economic valuation for risk management in the DKI Jakarta province
are needed. It gives an information about how much potential economy loss can be anticipated when the
disaster occurred.
This study used Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to estimate flood inundation areas. The
benefit of SAR for mapping flood inundation areas is the ability of the radar's wavelength to penetrate
fog or clouds [17]. The economy loss over flooded area was then calculated based on MCDA method
and Gross Regional Domestic Product of Current Market Price (GRDP CMP) approach.

2. Methods

2.1. Study Area

DKI Jakarta Province is the capital city of Indonesia. (Figure 1). Jakarta is located at the mouth of the
river Ciliwung on the bay of Jakarta, an entrance to the Java Sea. In the west, north, and centre of DKI
Jakarta have lowland with flat topography. DKI Jakarta are mostly covered built-up area. The
administrative area of the province of DKI Jakarta is 661.52 km2 with a total area of 649.71 ha within
inside Java. The rains fall during the months of January to May and October to December. On average,
the wettest month of 305 mm (12 in) of precipitation occurs in January and the driest month of 45 mm
(1.8 in) of precipitation takes place in August. Mean annual precipitation is 1825 mm (71.9 in).

2.2. Satellite Images Data

Dual-polarization VV and VH with the GRD swath mode of Interferometric Wide (IW) band of Sentinel
1 C were employed in this study. Time acquisitions were made between December 30, 2019, and January
5, 2020. The datasets were then analysed using the Google Earth Engine (GEE), a cloud computing
platform (https://code.earthengine.google.com/ ) to produce flood inundation maps of DKI Jakarta. To

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

identify the location of surface water, we also employed Global Surface Water (GSW). The GSW is a
comprehensive surface water location dataset based on national inventories and descriptions, statistical
extrapolation from regional data, and satellite imagery
(https://developers.google.com/earthengine/datasets/catalog/JRC_GSW1_3_GlobalSurfaceWater).
While slope information was derived using HydroSHEDS data with a resolution of 3 arc seconds GEE
(https://developers.google.com/earthengine/datasets/catalog/WWF_HydroSHEDS_03_VFDEM). The
data was subsequently projected to the WGS 84 coordinates.

Figure 1. Slope map of DKI Jakarta Province

2.3. Rainfall Data

We examined general rainfall pattern during the peak and after the flood events that is from 30 Dec 2019
to 4 January 2020 (six days), using the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). The spatial
resolution of GSMAP is 0.1 x 0.1 degree and one hour temporal resolution. The GSMAP analysis
includes rainfall average over the Jakarta domain (106.682°E, -6.084°S and 106.974°E, -6.372°S), cross
section of time-latitude to capture the evolution of rainfall through time. The time was recorded in the
UTC (+7 Local Time). The GSMaP is managed by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)
and commonly utilized to explore the rainfall feature spatially. The data are useful to cover areas where
the rainfall gauges are sparsely distributed [18,19].

2.4. Flood inundation area

This study used the change detection method to identify flood inundation by comparing the data before
and after the flooding. The difference between the flooded and non-flooded areas' backscattering
coefficients is the basis for implementing flood thresholding. To determine whether a pixel is submerged
or inundated, we applied the Long et al. [20] algorithm using a 1.125-threshold. Figure 2 shows the
flood areas change detection flowchart.

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

Figure 2. Flow chart of change detection analysis.

2.5. Economic Valuation

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is the method generally used in deciding or determining
policies based on certain scenarios. In assessing the impact of losses from flood disasters on economic
sectors, Gross Regional Domestic Product of Current Market Price (GRDP CMP) and Gross Regional
Domestic Product of Constant Price (GRDP CP) are widely used. In this study, we assessed the
economic loss using the GRDP CMP because the result carried out following a volatile and non-fixed
price every year. The GRDP CMP is then estimated using two concepts, namely sectoral and usage
approach. The sectoral approach is the accumulation of all business fields that provides added value in
market value, whereas the usage approach explains the use of the added value which the assessment can
be directly or indirectly obtained. Figure 3 shows flowchart used of economic valuation.

Figure 3. Flow chart of economic valuation.

In the sectoral approach, the Jakarta GRDP comprises 17 goods and services. The 17 commodities
are accommodation and food services; administration and defense - compulsory social security;

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

agriculture – forestry – fishing; business activities; construction; education; electricity and gas; financial
and insurance activities; human health – social work activities; information and communication;
manufacturing; mining and quarrying; real estate activities; transportation and storage; water supply –
sewerage – waste management – remediation activities; wholesale and retail trade – repair of vehicles;
and other services. GRDP by use is detailed according to the components of household consumption
expenditures, including the consumption expenditures of non-profit institutions and governments, and
import export of goods and services [21]. All the added value obtained is then converted to the sector
approach and the usage approach, as in the equation below:
ℎ ∑ (1)

ℎ ∑ (2)

Where:
: is the sectoral calculation value of business field A on current market price at the time - .
: is the usage calculation of the added value of business field B on current market price at the time of
.
: is the duration of the time disaster
: is the proportion between the aggregate disaster area and the total areas.
The GRDP were then estimated by the accumulation between the sectoral approach and the use approach.
The calculation is done using GRDP value in 2019 because of the time of the flood in January 2020.

3. Results and Discussions

3.1. Rainfall feature during the flood events

Figure 4 shows time series of domain average of hourly rainfall over Jakarta from 30 Dec 2019 to 4 Jan
2020 using GSMAP data. Between 31 Dec 2019 and 4 January 2020, the maximum of mean hourly
rainfall (12.5 mm/hr) was found on 31 Dec 2019 at 15-16 UTC (22-23 LT). The intensity of rainfall
then decreased at 17 UTC (00 LT) and 02 UTC (09 LT) on the following day on 1 Jan 2020. The high
intensity of rainfall occurring on 31 Dec 2019 and 1 Jan 2020 observed by GSMAP is comparable with
the day of highest intensity found by BMKG. BMKG mentioned that the intensity of daily rainfall (for
example 31 Dec 2019) is basically accumulated from 07 LT on 31 Dec 2019 to 07 LT on 1 Jan 2020.
By using GSMAP data, over Jakarta region, previous study has also found an increase of rainfall
occurred on 1 Jan 2020 [22] during 15 – 20 UTC (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Time series of domain average of hourly rainfall over Jakarta

from 30 Dec 2019 to 4 Jan 2020 using GSMAP data.

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

Overall, spatial map of hourly rainfall illustrates that the highest mean rainfall of around 1.8 mm/hr
was distributed over the south of Jakarta (Figure 5.a). This result is somewhat consistent with peak of
rainfall taking place around south Jakarta (-6.36S°S, -6.24S°S) on 31 Dec 2019 at around 12-14 UTC
(19-21 LT) (Figure 5.b). The rainfall diminished on 1 Jan 2020 at 00 UTC (07 LT).
Over Indonesia, changes in rainfall are influenced by large- and local-scale phenomena. Impacts of
these drivers on rainfall development to reduce the floods risk shall be investigated in the future to help
the government.

Figure 5. a) Spatial distribution of mean hourly rainfall over Jakarta, b) time-latitude cross section from
30 Dec 2019 to 4 Jan 2020 using GSMAP data.

3.2. Flood inundation area in Jakarta

Figure 6 shows the distribution map of the flood area in DKI Jakarta Province. It was shown that the
distribution of flooded areas is spread almost throughout the DKI Jakarta Province with the total flood-
affected areas located in North Jakarta City, West Jakarta City and South Jakarta City (Table 1). Total
built-up of flooded area in Jakarta of 5409.86 ha. It is below a total flooded area of 1156.84 ha [23] as
a result of a lower threshold. However, our results are in line with the total flooded area published by
DKI Provincial Government. The total flooded of built-up area represents 30.37 % of the total area
flooded. In addition, the results show the inundation occurred in most of southern and eastern West
Jakarta City, Central Jakarta City, northern South Jakarta City, south-eastern East Jakarta City, and
eastern West Jakarta City despite of a low slope in DKI Jakarta Province. A high rainfall with the
maximum of mean hourly rainfall (12.5 mm/hr) was found on 31 Dec 2019 at 15-16 UTC (22-23 LT).
It caused the overflow in the rivers and canals, resulting in flooding in several points of the Jakarta. A
low water storage capacity in the area aggravating the occurrence of floods.

Table 1. Total built-up area of flooded area in municipalities of DKI Jakarta Province
Municipalities Total Area (ha) Percentage
West Jakarta 1289.48 23.84
Central Jakarta 753.60 13.93
South Jakarta 1184.79 21.90
East Jakarta 865.58 16.00
North Jakarta 1316.40 24.33
Total 5409.86 100.00

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

Figure 6. Distribution of flooded areas in DKI Jakarta

3.3. Economic Valuation

Table 2 shows estimated economic evaluation of DKI Jakarta’s flood based on GRDP CMP and
optimum flooded Area from MCDA scenario. Based on the calculations, the high loss was in the West
Jakarta and North Jakarta. Total economic valuation of DKI Jakarta’s flood is about Rp. 1.4 trillion.

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030
Table 2. Estimated economic evaluation of DKI Jakarta’s Flood based on GRDP CMP and optimum flooded area from MCDA Scenario.

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ICOAGPG-2022 IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

The value of 1.4 trillion rupiahs underperforms the results of Jakarta Province Bank Indonesia [24] and
Indonesia Indigenous Entrepreneurs Association and Jakarta Province Bank Indonesia [25]. The results
of their calculation were estimated based on a BPS in the 2019 Figures [26] which used a previous year’s
GRDP CMP.
Our results shows that the greatest loss of DKI Jakarta due to the impact of the floods are experienced
in the field of wholesale and retail trade business and vehicle repair approximately 13.90%. Cars and
motorcycles are cost assets that are difficult to save during flood disaster. The loss is in line for
distribution of flooded area concentrated in non-strategic area [27]. The flooding effect trading activities
to a standstill particularly in the residential areas. In addition, the sector of manufacture, construction
and the financial services and insurance suffered losses of 11.51%, 10.10% and 7.33%, respectively.
The flood caused the destruction of a number of buildings. Bridges, houses and other facilities that were
incorporated into the construction sector. A crippled economy, such as the damage to ATM facilities,
and the emergence of insurance costs for claims payable on the affected objects give a significant
contribution. The information and communication sector also suffered losses about 7.25% of the total
loss. This is caused by floods that occurred in early January 2020, causing a number of
telecommunications and internet providers to stop for a long time due to power supply outages in several
Base Transceiver Stations (BTS). The other service activities about 20.49% shows that the
environmental services and productivities implicitly described by the market value. Consequently, this
calculation is a minimum estimation because potential loss would be much greater if the loss of nature,
human productivity, and fatalities, and the inundation duration are accounted into the model. The benefit
value of this loss cannot be estimated using market value. It can be approached by a Contingent
Valuation Method (CVM) using a surveying of Willingness to Pay (WTP) for the scenario imposed.
Analysis of mean rainfall demonstrates that the highest intensity was observed in the western and
southern part Jakarta region (Figure 5.a) while the flood inundation was mostly spread over the Jakarta
areas (Figure 5). This indicates that the impacted areas having the highest rainfall are not necessarily
similar to areas having largest floods. We speculate that another important factor such as infrastructure
management might play a key role to cause the areas prone to floods apart from the rainfall.

4. Conclusions
The result shows that the occurrence of rainfall existed when the severe floods happened over Jakarta.
This is an indication that the rainfall is certainly one of prominent factors causing this hazard.
Nevertheless, other non-meteorological effects likely contributed to the distribution of overflow and to
understand this, a more detailed study in understanding the causes from other perspectives (eq: urban
planning management) is imperative. A quick mapping from analysing Sentinel-1A shows that North
Jakarta and West Jakarta contribute about 48.17% of total built-up of flooded area or about 54.10 km2
(8.18%) of the total DKI Jakarta area. It caused DKI Jakarta have loss a minimum of Rp. 1.4 trillion
with high economic loss is the sector of Wholesale and Retail Trade & Repair of Vehicles about 13.90%,
manufacture about 11.51%, construction about 10.10%, and the financial services, communications, and
business activities about 7.33 %, 7.25 %, and 6.77%, respectively. These sectors contribute about
56.86% of the total economic loss from market value of the DKI Jakarta province. Moreover, the other
service activities about 20.49% implicitly underestimates the non-market value (ie. environmental
activities and human productivity in Jakarta area. Thus, a detailed analysis of non-market value is needed
using Continent Valuation Method (CVM).

Acknowledgements
Research Program for Disaster [Grand No. SP DIPA-124.01.1.690501/2022, 17 November 2021] from
Research Organization for Earth Sciences and Maritime, National Research and Innovation Agency
(BRIN), Indonesia funded this paper.

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IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1190 (2023) 012030 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1190/1/012030

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