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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 a.m. EST, Thursday, January 25, 2024
BEA 24-02

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and

Year 2023 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in
the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate
released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP
increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or
subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to "Source Data for the
Advance Estimate" on page 3). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter,
based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2024.

(/system/files/gdp4q23-adv-chart.png)

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25/01/24, 11:06 Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports,

state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal
government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed
investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP,
increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and

goods. Within services, the leading contributors were food services and
accommodations as well as health care. Within goods, the leading contributors
to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products)
and recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software). Within exports,
both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services) increased.
The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected
increases in compensation of state and local government employees and
investment in structures. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment
reflected increases in intellectual property products, structures, and equipment.
Within federal government spending, the increase was led by nondefense
spending. The increase in inventory investment was led by wholesale trade
industries. Within residential fixed investment, the increase reflected an
increase in new residential structures that was partly offset by a decrease in
brokers' commissions. Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an
increase in services (led by travel).

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, the deceleration in real GDP in the
fourth quarter primarily reflected slowdowns in private inventory investment,
federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and consumer
spending. Imports decelerated.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $328.7 billion, in

the fourth quarter to a level of $27.94 trillion. In the third quarter, GDP
increased 8.3 percent, or $547.1 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.9 percent in the
fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the third quarter
(table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased
1.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent. Excluding food and
energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.0 percent, the same change as the
third quarter.

Personal Income
Current-dollar personal income increased $224.8 billion in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $196.2 billion in the third quarter. The increase
primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on
assets, and proprietors' income that were partly offset by a decrease in personal
current transfer receipts (table 8).

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25/01/24, 11:06 Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Disposable personal income increased $211.7 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the

fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $143.5 billion, or 2.9 percent, in
the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent.

Personal saving was $818.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $851.2
billion in the third quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a
percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.0 percent in the fourth
quarter, compared with 4.2 percent in the third quarter.

GDP for 2023

Real GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2023 (from the 2022 annual level to the 2023
annual level), compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022 (table 1). The
increase in real GDP in 2023 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending,
nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports,
and federal government spending that were partly offset by decreases in
residential fixed investment and inventory investment. Imports decreased (table
2).

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in services (led by health

care) and goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles). The increase in
nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in structures and intellectual
property products. The increase in state and local government spending
reflected increases in gross investment in structures and in compensation of
state and local government employees. The increase in exports reflected
increases in both goods and services. The increase in federal government
spending reflected increases in both nondefense and defense spending.

The decrease in residential fixed investment mainly reflected a decrease in new

single-family construction as well as brokers' commissions. The decrease in
private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in wholesale trade
industries. Within imports, the decrease primarily reflected a decrease in goods.

Current-dollar GDP increased 6.3 percent, or $1.61 trillion, in 2023 to a level of

$27.36 trillion, compared with an increase of 9.1 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in
2022 (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.4 percent in 2023,
compared with an increase of 6.8 percent in 2022 (table 4). The PCE price index
increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 6.5 percent. Excluding food
and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.1 percent, compared with an
increase of 5.2 percent.

Measured from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, real
GDP increased 3.1 percent during the period (table 6), compared with an
increase of 0.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of
2022.

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25/01/24, 11:06 Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

The price index for gross domestic purchases, as measured from the fourth
quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023, increased 2.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 6.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the fourth
quarter of 2022. The PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, compared with an
increase of 5.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index
increased 3.2 percent, compared with 5.1 percent.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or
subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data
and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical
Note (https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/tech4q23-adv.pdf) and a
detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions
(https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/GDPKeySource-4q23-
adv.xlsx)" file posted with the release. The "second" estimate for the fourth
quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2024.
For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section
that follows.

* * *

Next release, February 28, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EST

Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate)
Fourth Quarter 2023 and Year 2023

* * *

Release Dates in 2024

2023 Q4
2024
Estimate and 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Q1
Year 2023

Gross Domestic
Product

April
January 25, October 30,
Advance Estimate 25, July 25, 2024
2024 2024
2024

February May 30, August 29, November

Second Estimate
28, 2024 2024 2024 27, 2024

June
March 28, September December
Third Estimate 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
2024

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25/01/24, 11:06 Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Release Dates in 2024

2023 Q4
2024
Estimate and 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Q1
Year 2023

Gross Domestic June

March 28, September December
Product by 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
Industry 2024

Corporate Profits

Preliminary May 30, August 29, November

---
Estimate 2024 2024 27, 2024

June
March 28, September December
Revised Estimate 27,
2024 26, 2024 19, 2024
2024

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