Pakistan’s External

Affairs
Badar Ahsan Ullah
40th CTP
Topics 1/2

 Pakistan’s Relations with its neighbors

 India
 China
 Afghanistan
 Russia

 Pakistan’s Relations with Muslim world

 Iran
 Saudi Arabia
 Indonesia
 Turkey
Topics 2/2

 Pakistan’s Relations with United States

 Pakistan’s Relations with Regional and International
Organizations
 UN
 SAARC
 ECO
 OIC
 WTO
 CW
Overview of Pakistan: lets have a glance
1/5
 Pakistan was established as an independent nation on August
14 in 1947.
 Official Name: Islamic Republic of Pakistan
 Area-796096 Sq. KM
 Population-238,181,034 (July 2021 est.)
 Muslim Population-96.4%
 Non-Muslim Population-3.6%
 Geography: Part of South Asia
 India-East, Iran and Afghanistan-West, China-North, Arabian Sea-South
Overview of Pakistan: lets have a glance
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 Terrain-
 Flat Indus Plain in east; mountains in north and
northwest; and Baluchistan Plateau in the west
 Climate:
 Dry, dry desert; temperate in northwest; and arctic in the
north
 Natural resources:
 Natural gas, limited crude oil, poor quality coal, iron ore,
salt, limestone
Overview of Pakistan: lets have a glance
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 Agriculture products:
 Cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits, vegetable, milk, beef,
mutton etc.
 Industries:
 Textiles and apparel, food processing, construction materials, etc.
 Export commodities:
 Textile, rice, fruits, sporting goods, cement, carpets and rugs
 Export-Partners:
 United States, China, European Union, Germany etc.
Overview of Pakistan: lets have a glance
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 Import Commodities:
 Petroleum, petroleum products, machinery, transportation equipment, edible
oils, paper , iron and steel, tea etc.
 Import Partners:
 China, UAE, USA
 Political System:
 Islamic federal Parliamentary republic with Islam as the state religion
 President- State head
 Prime Minister- Chief Executive
 Three Tiers of Government i.e. Federal, Provincial and Local
 4 Provinces
Overview of Pakistan: lets have a glance
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 Economic Profile:
 GDP-3.94-4%
 Agriculture accounts for 19.19% of GDP
 Industrial Sector accounts for 19.12% of GDP
 Services Sector accounts for 61.68% of GDP
Why Countries need to Establish
Relations
 Foreign Policy Objectives
 Interdependent World
 Key to Ensure a safe world
 Protection of National Interest
 Boosting of Trade Relations
 To end Disputes
 To spread Influence
 To Counter Ideological Differences
 To ensure better way of life
Pakistan India Relations
73 years History of Hate and Hostility
Pakistan India Relations

 India In Eastern Side

 Normalized Trade Balance- $37 billion (WB, 2018)
 Volume of Bilateral Trade- $2.38-$ 3 Billion LAST
 Pakistan has suspended trade with India over Indian Unilateral
Actions in Kashmir
 No direct talks at present
 History of continuous conflict
 Number of Wars
Time Line 1/6

 1947- Britain pullout from Indian Sub-continent and creation of

India and Pakistan as independent states
 1947-48- the First India-Pakistan war Over Kashmir
 1948- Pakistan India Water Dispute
 1954- Indian Constituent Assembly ratified accession of Jammu
and Kashmir (IOK) to India
 1957- The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly (IOK) approves their
constitution
 India started referring Kashmir as its integral part on account of
1954 accession and 1957 Constitution
Time Line 2/6

 1960– Indus Water Treaty

 1963- After Sino-Indian War, Foreign Ministers of both countries
holds talks- No formal Agreement- In talks, India recognized
Kashmir as disputed territory and need for territorial
adjustments. Pakistan showed willingness to find solutions
other than plebiscite
 1964- Pakistan refers the case to UN Security Council after
failure of 1963 talks
 1965- Second War between India and Pakistan
 1966- Tashkent Agreement
Time Line 3/6

 1971- Third war between Pakistan and India-

Dismemberment of Pakistan.
 1972- Shimla Agreement- Agreement to put an end to the
conflict and confrontation
 1984- Siachen dispute
 1988- Agreement signed for not attacking each others
Nuclear Sites
 1989- Armed resistance started in Indian Occupied Kashmir
Time Line 4/6

 1998- Nuclear tests by both countries

 1999- Historical breakthrough- Indian PM Visit to Lahore
 1999- Kargil Conflict
 2001- Indian Parliament attack
 2004- Musharf- Vajpayee talks at 12th SAARC summit in
Islamabad and beginning of Composite Dialogue process
 2006- India redeploys 5000 troops from IOK citing
improvement in situation
Time Line 5/6

 2007- Samjhauta express attack in India

 2008- India Joins framework agreement between
Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan on $7.6 billion gas
pipeline project. India blamed Pakistan Over attack on
their embassy in Kabul.
 2008- trade commences through LOC
 2008- Mumbai Attacks
 2014- Modi- Nawaz Shareef Talks in New Delhi
Time Line 6/6

 2015- PM Modi Surprise Visit to Lahore

 2016- Pathankot attack
 2016- Uri attacks and Indian Alleged surgical strikes in Pakistan
 2019- so called Balakot Strikes and Pakistan response.
 2019- Indian Unilateral Actions on Kashmir Status
 2019- suspension of Pakistan India Trade by Pakistan
 2021- Reports of Mediation of UAE for better relations between
Pakistan and India
 2021-Resumption of ceasefire along LOC
Issues between India and Pakistan

 Kashmir
 Siachin
 Sir creek
 Water Disputes
 Afghanistan
 Terrorism
 MFN
Issues between Pakistan and India

 Siachen Conflict
 Above 6000 meters in the Karakoram Range
 Began in 1984
 More than 4000 people have died
 Shimla Agreement 1972 did not explicitly stated that who owns the
glacier
 Glacier is extremely important from strategic point of view
 Sir Creek (96 km)
 It is a dispute of marshlands between Pakistani province Sindh and
Indian province of Gujrat
 Thalweg Doctrine and Pakistan stance
 Area rich in natural resources especially gas & oil reserves
 Water Disputes
 Violation of IWT By India- Kishan Gangha, Woller Barrage, Baghliar Dam etc
Why is Kashmir Controversial

 Both India and Pakistan claim Kashmir is fully theirs

 Conflict started in 1947 when sub-continent was divided
 Pakistan and India subsequently went to war over it and
each control different parts of the territory with a
ceasefire line agreed
 Violence in Indian occupied Kashmir from last 32 years
due to freedom struggle of Kashmiris
Why is Kashmir more volatile now 1/2

 India took unliteral action by changing the status quo in

Kashmir
 Revoked Article 370 which 35A is part of and which was
the base of that Kashmir’s complex relationship with India
 Significance of Article 370 in Indian Scenario
 Certain amount of autonomy was allowed
 Own constitution and freedom to make laws relating to
permanent residency, ownership of property and
fundamental rights, own flag
Why is Kashmir more volatile now 2/2

 Pakistan condemned Indian Actions- downgraded

diplomatic staff- suspended bilateral trade, partially
shutting airspace
 Pakistan does not recognize Article 370
 Pakistan considers it an effort to change demographic
situation in IOK
What’s changed on the ground after
abrogation of Article 370 in IOK
 IOK will no longer have a separate constitution but will
have to abide by the Indian Constitution much like other
Indian States
 All Indian laws will be automatically applicable to
Kashmiris
 Ladakh as Union Territory
Kashmir- Some Historical background
1/2
 Mushraf Era policy
 Demilitarization
 Mutual Ceasefire on LOC
 Track two diplomacy
 UN Supervision
 Present Regime’s policy
 “Kashmir issue on Front Seat
 Pakistan will not talk unless Kashmir situation is reversed
 “Unfinished Agenda of Partition”
 Strict Stance on Kashmir
 Suspension of trade with India
Kashmir- Some Historical background
2/2
 Official Stance of Pakistan on Kashmir Issue
 Political & moral support to Kashmiri people
 Sensitizing the issue to the world
 Continuation of CBMs for normalization of relations
 Third party mediation for resolving Kashmir Issue
 Solution of Kashmir acceptable to Pakistan
 Kashmir be annexed to Pakistan
 Status quo
Kashmir Solutions

 Scenario 1- The status quo

 Scenario 2- Kashmir Joins Pakistan
 Scenario 3- Kashmir Joins India
 Scenario 4- Independent Kashmir
 Scenario 5- A smaller Independent Kashmir
 Scenario 6- Independent Kashmir Valley
 The Chenab Formula
 Kashmir to be divided along the line of River Chenab
 Majority of area to be given to Pakistan-entire valley
Treaties & Summits

 Karachi Agreement
 Cease fire agreement-1949
 Liaquat-Nehru Pact
 New Delhi, 8th april, 1950
 Indus Water Treaty
 19-9-1960
 Tashkent Agreement
 10th January, 1966
 Shimla Agreement-2/7/72
 Lahore Declaration 21/2/99
 Agra Summit 14-17 july, 2001
Initiatives 1/2

 Campsite dialogue-8 Areas

 Peace and security, including CBMs, Kashmir, Siachen
 Wuller Barrage project/Tulbul, Sir Creek, Terrorism and drug trafficking
 Economic and Commercial Cooperation and Promotion of friendly exchanges
 Samjhuta Express
 1976- Biweekly
 Kartar Pur Corridor
 People to people contact-5000 yatris are allowed on daily basis
 Visa free regime for pilgrims coming from India
 Indus Water Commission
 Bilateral commission- Pakistan and India Officials to implement and manage IWT
Initiatives 2/2

 Dehli-Lahore Bus Service

 1999- 3 times a week-currently suspended
 Srinagar-Muzaffarabad Bus Service
 2005- Flagship initiative during peace times
 Joint anti-terrorism mechanisms
 Intelligence sharing
 Establishment of hot lines
 DGMOs
 Visa on Arrival for elderly-65 years and above
 Not implemented
 Back door diplomacy
 Track Two diplomacy-non governmental, informal
Pakistan India Relations-Afghan lens 1/2
Afghanistan has been a prize that Pakistan and India have fought
over directly and indirectly for decades

 Competition between Pakistan and India to have influence in

Afghanistan
 Traditionally Afghanistan remained in a close alliance with India
 1947-1979 Phase- Afghanistan remained hostile towards Pakistan
 1979-89- War in Afghanistan
 1989-1996- Infighting in Afghanistan
 1996-2001- Taliban First Regime- tilted towards Pakistan
 2001-2021- West backed governments- hostile towards Pak
 2021- Taliban Take Over--- What will happen next???
Pakistan India Relations-Afghan lens 2/2

 Indian desire for influence in Afghanistan

 Cultivate Afghanistan as a natural partner against Islamic militants
 Wanted to reduce Pakistan Influence
 Through Soft Powers- Massive Development in Western backed regimes
 US abrupt withdrawal and consequent return of Taliban have placed
India on back seat
 Indian Consulates in Afghanistan
 Pakistan Role
 View Indian role beyond its relevance
 consider Indian role to destabilize Pakistan through terrorist activities from
Afghanistan
 Influence over Taliban
India- Afghanistan Relations 1/3

 Historical basis of relationships

 Since 2001- India is biggest regional donor to Afghanistan
 India was second largest destination for Afghanistan Exports
(2021)-$1.5 billion bilateral trade
 Exports to India- Fruits and dry fruits
 Imports from India- Clothes and Synthetic fabrics
 Defence Cooperation- Training to Afghanistan military Officers
and Military Hard ware
 2014 MOU between Afg=India and Russia
 Russia to Provide Military hardware to India while India had to pay
India- Afghanistan Relations 2/3

 Cultural Relationships
 Scholarships for afghan students for education and capacity
building
 Impact of Bollywood
 Indian Development Programme (Pre-2021 Scenario)
 Bilateral assistance of $3 billion
 Salma dam- Friendship dam
 Parliament Building
 Power Project
 Roads, Hospitals and schools
India- Afghanistan Relations 3/3

 Taliban Take over-2021

 Big blow to Indian Interests in Afghanistan
 Now, most disadvantaged player in region
 Current standing of India with reference to Taliban
 Indian Reluctance to reach out to Taliban during talks
 Deep Pakistan foot print in Afghan peace negotiations
 Deprived India of Political leverage and put India at most disadvantage position
 Taliban response so far
 Showed willingness for talks with India
 Asked India to complete their projects
 Taliban will seek International recognition by engaging with all
India Pakistan- MFN Debate 1/3

 MFN status
 Status or level of treatment accorded by one state to another
state.
 Equal treatment with all other states granted as MFN
 General benefits of MFN
 MFN allows smaller countries to participates in the advantages that larger
countries often grant to each other
 A Country that grants MFN on imports will have its imports provided by
the most efficient supplier
India Pakistan- MFN Debate 2/3

 Pakistan Exports to India

 Vegetables and fruits
 Cement, rice, Milk. Leather and sports goods

 Pakistan Imports from India

 Automobile parts, dyes and chemicals, iron ore etc
 Balance of trade remained in Pakistan favor till 1990
 India granted MFN status to Pakistan in 1996
 Pakistan Cabinet decided to grant MFN to India in 2011 but not implemented
 India Revoked Pakistan MFN status in 2019
 Non-Tarrif Barriers imposed by India till 2019
 Customs Valuation, Import licensing, Financial measures, standards
India Pakistan- MFN Debate 3/3

 Concerns in Pakistan
 Reliance on India will give her a strategic advantage over Pakistani
Industry
 Cost of doing business is very high- Law and order, terrorism,
Power shortages/high rates- Pakistani Products will not be able to
compete Indian Markets
 Pharmaceutical sectors concerns
 Indian subsidies to Agriculture sector
Way Forward: Some suggestions to
improve relationships
 Both parties should resume the dialogue process
 Both Parties needed a clearer framework of principles- for future
relations
 Recognition that peace between them is of imperative nature for the
whole region
 Both parties should recognize Kashmir as the bone of contention and
Alternative solutions of Kashmir be put forward
 Cooperation should be made in all other areas also like tourism,
trade, communication, transport, culture etc
 Collective security and future of the region should be kept in mind
 Campsite dialogue must be continued to build up trust
 Economic Dependence
 Trade to full potential
 Increase People to People Contacts

 Trade freely
 Play sports with each other
 Strengthen SAARC
 Pakistan India Trade

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

2013-14

Imports US$2.2bn US$1.85 bn US$2.1bn US$1.83bn US$ 1.92bn US$ 2.06 bn

US$0.426 US$0.497 US$ 0.495

Exports US$.441bn US$.456bn US$0.488bn
bn bn bn

Trade
US$1.8bn US$1.3bn US$1.7bn US$1.3bn US$1.435 US$ 1.57 bn
Balance