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Energy
EnergyProcedia
Procedia153 (2018) 000–000
00 (2017) 107–111
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
5th International Conference on Energy and Environment Research, ICEER 2018
5th International Conference on Energy and Environment Research, ICEER 2018
Fossil fuel energy consumption in European countries
Fossil fuel energy consumption in European countries
The 15thMartins
Florinda International
a, Symposium
*, Carlos on District
Felgueiras b HeatingSmitková
, Miroslava and Cooling
c
Florinda Martins *, Carlos Felgueiras , Miroslava Smitkovác
a, b

Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor

REQUIMTE/LAQV/ISEP (School of Engineering, P. Porto), Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida 431, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
a

a b
CIETI/ISEP (School(School
REQUIMTE/LAQV/ISEP of Engineering, P. Porto),
of Engineering, Rua Dr.
P. Porto), António
Rua Bernardino
Dr. António de Almeida
Bernardino 431, 4249-015
de Almeida Porto, Porto,
431, 4249-015 Portugal
Portugal
temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast
Institute of Power(School
and Applied Electrical P.
Engineering,
Porto), RuaFEI
Dr.-António
Slovak University
Bernardinoofde
Technology, Ilkovicova 3, Bratislava, Slovakia
c b
CIETI/ISEP of Engineering, Almeida 431, 4249-015 Porto, Portugal
c
Institute of Power and Applied Electrical Engineering, FEI - Slovak University of Technology, Ilkovicova 3, Bratislava, Slovakia

I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc

Abstract
Abstract
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
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grave consequences.
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pollution is another
However the important problem
use of fossil and another
fuels has has beenstrategic
responsible for many
dimension health
when problems causing
a sustainability social
perspective
and economic namely
is considered, negativethe effects. However
preservation of the use of
natural fossil fuels
resources, whichhasisanother
a goal ofstrategic
Circular dimension
Economywhen a sustainability
strategy. In this workperspective
fossil fuel
isAbstract
considered,
energy namelyisthe
consumption preservation
analyzed of natural
in European resources,
countries which
as well is arelationship
as its goal of Circular Economy
with other strategy.
variables suchInasthis workdependence
energy fossil fuel
energy
and share consumption
of renewable is analyzed
energy iningrossEuropean countries
final energy as well as its
consumption. It relationship
was possiblewith other variables
to conclude suchEuropean
that many as energycountries
dependence
still
District
and share
depend heating onnetworks
of renewable
heavily fossilenergy areincommonly
fuels. gross finaladdressed in the literature
energy consumption. It wasaspossible
one of to theconclude
most effective solutions
that many European for countries
decreasingstill
the
greenhouse
depend heavilygasonemissions
fossil fuels.from the building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
©sales.
2018 Due to the changed
The Authors. Published climate conditions
by Elsevier Ltd. and building renovation policies, heat demand in the future could decrease,
©prolonging
2018 The Authors.
the Published
investment returnbyperiod.
Elsevier Ltd.
© 2018
This is anThe
openAuthors.
accessPublished
article underby Elsevier Ltd.
the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
This
Theisismain
an open
scope access
of this article
paper under the CC
is responsibility
to the
assess theBY-NC-ND
feasibility license
of using (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
the heat ofdemand
This
Selection
Selection an open
and
and access
peer-review article
peer-review under
under
under CC BY-NC-ND
responsibility of the
of license
scientific
the scientificcommittee
committee the 5th– 5th
of as
the
outdoor temperature
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
International function
Conference for heat
on Energy anddemand
forecast.and
Selection
Environment The district ICEER
peer-review
Research, of under
Alvalade, located inof Lisbon
responsibility
2018. the (Portugal),
scientific committeewas used
of the 5th caseInternational
a International The Conference
study. Conference
district on on Energy
is Energy
consisted
and ofand
665
Environment
buildings thatResearch,
vary in ICEER
both 2018.
construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
Environment Research, ICEER 2018.
renovation
Keywords: scenarios
Fossil wereconsumption;
fuels; energy developed (shallow,
sustainableintermediate,
energy; low carbondeep). To systems.
energy estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
comparedFossil
Keywords: withfuels;
results fromconsumption;
energy a dynamic heat demand
sustainable model,
energy; lowpreviously
carbon energy developed
systems. and validated by the authors.
The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications
1.(the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation
Introduction
scenarios,
1. Introduction the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered).
The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the
Fossil fuels have been the basis of energy production systems of developed and developing countries. The problems
decrease in the number of heating hours of 22-139h during the heating season (depending on the combination of weather and
Fossil fuels
associated have
its been the basis
wellOnof energyand production systems of developed and developing countries. The problems
renovation withscenarios use are
considered). known
the other have
hand, been
function addressed
intercept in many
increased for studies
7.8-12.7% [1,per
2]. It is (depending
decade responsible onforthe
associated
coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, for
with its use are well known and have been addressed in many studies [1, 2]. It is responsible and
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: 00351 228340500.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
E-mail address:author.
* Corresponding ffm@isep.ipp.pt
Tel.: 00351 228340500.
Cooling.
E-mail address: ffm@isep.ipp.pt
1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
This is an open
1876-6102 access
© 2018 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC BY-NC-ND
Published license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
by Elsevier Ltd.
Selection
This is an and
openpeer-review under
access article responsibility
under of the scientific
the CC BY-NC-ND licensecommittee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and Environment
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Research, and
Selection ICEER 2018. under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and Environment
peer-review
Research, ICEER 2018.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
1876-6102 © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 5th International Conference on Energy and
Environment Research, ICEER 2018.
10.1016/j.egypro.2018.10.050
108 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 107–111
2 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

environmental problems such as air pollution and global warming and also causes social negative effects related with
health problems and quality of life of populations [3,4,5]. Their uneven distribution also increases the concerns about
energy security due to their crucial role in today’s energy systems. From an economic perspective the instability of
markets and prices is also a drawback in their use. In addition they are non renewable resources which raises the
question of their depletion and their availability for this generation and future generations. All the above mentioned
questions lead to unsustainable energy systems and to the quest for new solutions for reducing the negative impacts of
energy systems. Worldwide it is possible to verify that to achieve sustainable energy systems still remains a challenge
in spite of the efforts carried out by the governments and other stakeholders. In the recent years new policies have
been implemented and incentives to renewable energy have been granted through support mechanisms as, for example,
feed-in-tariffs. Other issues such as demand side strategies and smart grids have been addressed to overcome the
difficulties that a change to low carbon energy systems poses [6,7]. European countries have been in the front of these
changes and renewable energy sources a key aspect in the new pathways [8]. This work analyses fossil fuel energy
consumption (oil, solid fuels and gas) in European countries and its relation with other variables such as energy
dependence and share of renewable energy. It also analysis the progress made by individual countries towards a low-
carbon energy system.
Energy systems are changing and it is important to quantify and assess those variations, measuring the progress
towards the established goals and indicators can be a useful tool to that purpose. Fossil fuel energy consumption can
be defined as the quotient between the usage of fossil fuels (oil, solid fuels and gas) and gross inland energy
consumption (equation 1):

E +E +E
Solid Fuels Total Petroleum products Gas
Fossil Fuel Energy Consumptio n (%) = (1)
Gross inland energy consumption

where ESolids Fuels is the energy consumption from solid fuels, ETotal Petroleum products is the energy consumption from
petroleum products and EGas is the energy consumption from gas.

2. Analysis of fossil fuel consumption in European countries

2.1. Fossil fuel energy mix for European countries

Figure 1 presents the fossil fuel energy mix for the European Union’s Countries.

Fig. 1. Fossil fuel energy mix.

In order to calculate the indicators, data (2016) was gathered for the several European countries from Eurostat [9].
Analyzing the energy consumption of oil, solid fuels and gas in the selected European countries, it is possible to
conclude that in the majority of countries considered the oil presents the highest percentage of usage in terms of fossil
 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 107–111 109
Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

fuels. Only in four countries solids fuels present a higher percentage, namely Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia and
Poland. In Italy, Hungary and Slovakia, gas presents the highest percentage. However in many countries the percentage
corresponding to solid fuels is very small as can be seen in Fig.1, which is a positive aspect since solid fuels are
recognized as having more severe negative impacts.

2.2. Fossil fuel energy consumption indicator

In the next step the fossil fuel energy consumption was calculated for the several selected European countries and
it is possible to verify that Iceland and Sweden are the only countries where the indicator is lower than 40%, with
Iceland having a value lower than 20%. With the values of the indicator between 40% and 60% there are only 3
countries, namely France, Finland and Norway. All the other countries have values above 60%. The countries with
values higher than 90% are Ireland, Cyprus, Poland and Netherlands (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Fossil fuel energy consumption indicator.

2.3. Fossil fuel energy consumption and other variables

The final stage of this work was to analyze the relation of fossil fuel energy consumption and other variables such
as energy dependence (calculated as percentage of imports in total energy consumption) and share of renewable energy
in gross final energy consumption (data from [8]). Table 1 presents the results of a correlation analysis. From the
results it is possible to conclude that fossil fuel energy consumption and energy dependence present a small positive
correlation (the value is near zero and positive). However fossil fuel energy consumption and share of renewable
energy are negatively correlated (the higher the share of renewable energy the lower the fossil fuel energy
consumption). Energy dependence and share of renewable energy also present a negative correlation.

Table 1. Correlation between variables.

Energy dependence Fossil fuel energy consumption Share of renewable energy

1
Energy dependence
0.222 1
Fossil fuel energy consumption
-0.572 -0.779 1
Share of renewable energy
110 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 107–111
4 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

Representing the two variables in a quadrant chart it is possible to verify that the great majority of countries are
situated in the bottom right quadrant, which means high fossil fuel energy consumption and low share of renewable
energy. The exceptions to this trend are Iceland and Sweden which present low fossil fuel energy consumption and
high share of renewable energy and Norway which presents high percentages for both variables. In Iceland in 2016
100% of electricity came from hydro (73 %) and geothermal (27%) and most houses are heated using geothermal
energy. However Iceland is still dependent of fossil fuels when it comes to transportation and fishing [10, 11]. In
Sweden in 2016 roughly 98 % of electricity came from nuclear and renewable (40 % from hydroelectric power) and
their share of renewable energy is the highest in European Union [12, 9]. In Norway in 2016 the electricity was mainly
produced by hydro resources (97%). However Norway has significant hydrocarbon resources and is a supplier of oil
and gas [13].This representation shows clearly that for most European countries there is a long pathway ahead in order
to achieve low carbon energy systems. It is necessary to increase the share of renewable energy and continue with the
incentives to renewable energy. The exceptions to this trend show that each country should chose their energy mix
according to its own characteristic making the most of its natural renewable resources. Nuclear energy although being
low carbon energy presents several drawbacks, which can be an obstacle to its implementation or continuity, especially
when comparing with renewable energy.

100

Iceland
Norway
Share of renewable energy %

Sweden
50

Finland
Latvia
Austria
Denmark
Croatia Portugal Estonia
Lithuania
Romania
Slovenia
Bulgaria Italy
Spain Greece
France
Hungary Germany
Slovakia Czech Republic Poland
Belgium United Kingdom Ireland
Luxembourg Cyprus
Netherlands
0
0.0 50.0 100.0
Fossil fuel energy consumption %

Fig. 3. Fossil fuel energy consumption and share of renewable energy.

3. Conclusions

From the analysis performed it was possible to conclude that many European countries still dependent heavily on
fossil fuels. Most countries present values for the indicator fossil fuel energy consumption higher than 60%, which
 Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 153 (2018) 107–111 111
Florinda Martins et al. / Energy Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

corresponds to 24 countries out of the 29 European countries studied. Moreover 10 countries present values higher
than 80%, which includes countries such as Germany and United Kingdom. This means that in spite of the efforts and
changes in energy policies made by European countries there is still a long way ahead to achieve low carbon energy
systems. The positive aspect is that renewable energy is contributing to reduce fossil fuel energy consumption indicator
since those variables are negatively correlated. For this reason renewable energy is a key issue to decrease fossil fuel
usage. Another positive aspect from an environmental and social perspective is that the fossil fuel energy mix of the
European countries studied does not depend heavily on solid fuels.

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